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On December 06 2012 12:32 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2012 12:27 Keirathi wrote:On December 06 2012 12:21 austinmcc wrote:On December 06 2012 12:08 Keirathi wrote:On December 06 2012 10:10 austinmcc wrote:On December 06 2012 10:04 Keirathi wrote:On December 06 2012 09:32 austinmcc wrote:On December 06 2012 09:26 Blazinghand wrote:
the lack of a PM and the lack of a rolecrumb is meaningless on an investigative role. The lack of a check/result crumb and the lack of pressure on sandro is trohblng Yeah, it should be. I didn't crumb the risk/Gonzaw PM in bureaucracy either. I crumbed the hell out of being mason with Sciberbia in Can't Believe. But that's the only thing I've crumbed ever I believe. What I'd say is this - look at Sandroba's posts. Look at his N1, his N2. I probably cannot drop my confirmation bias, and I don't want to just yell my head off for 40 something hours today. But I believe that some of his posts that look like they have content don't, they're full of "reads" that aren't actually based on anything. A lot of the other posts don't have content at all. Your confirmation bias? Confirmation bias comes from not being sure about something but convincing yourself anyways, not from having a 95%+ guaranteed scum check. Here's part of my problem (aside from the fact that you had a red check and didn't do anything about it): your WBG/ShiaoPi analysis doesn't fit with what sandro did in Chrono before he died. "I wouldn't trust Toad as party leader", and calling Dieno town, etc. And him not giving strong reasoning for his reads isn't alignment telling at all (hell, didn't you play with him in Looney where he did basically the same thing?) I can't tell you whether Sandro is playing to this meta or that meta. I can tell you he's scum. Then, I can pressure Xatalos for saying things about Sandroba that I personally don't find to be true. Right now, I don't care what Sandroba normally does as town or scum, because I know his alignment. I care what Xatalos thinks about Sandroba, because it's telling of Xatalos's alignment. Also yes, I played in Looney Lynching. And in Looney Lynching I actually DIDN'T lynch Sandroba D1. Do you know what I did do? I had a blue role, I was a veteran. And I decided to give away votes on D1 (everyone thought I was retarded) and be coy about my claim on the day I was lynched (people lynched me anyway). That's the only time I've ever been lynched, and it was because I'm a 'tard when blue. That's beside the point though. Sandroba is scum. Xatalos has some odd thoughts on him. I like investigating that. Again, you're completely missing the point of what I'm trying to say. Your actions during the day yesterday just don't line up with what a person with a scum check would do, IMO. So if you're an information role and have a scum check on someone, you really have 3 options: 1) Claim to get them lynched. Fine, you didn't want to do that. 2) Push as hard as you can for that person to get lynched without claiming. Make a case. Make a meta case. Do whatever you can to get SOMEONE to think that person is scum. Maybe it works, maybe it doesn't, but you still have the claim to fall back on later. 3) Think you have zero chance of getting the person lynched without claiming, so you engage that person, and try to get them to slip up, and make some associative cases for when you do decide to claim. Which is what you said you were doing. But, if you have a scum check on someone and don't think you can push them to a lynch, why in the world wouldn't you go back and look at some scum games of that person to see what they tend to say about their teammates? Why would just assume that "sando saying WBG is town means that WBG is scum, and sandro pushing ShiaoPi means ShiaoPi is town"? Would you assume the same thing if that scum check was on marv, who has a history of bussing 'liability' teammates who are likely to get lynched anyways? You put no effort into doing anything that can be seen by me as even remotely pushing a town agenda towards a scum scum check. THAT'S my problem I know there will be postgame discussion on this. I may well be in the wrong. But I think I'm willing to argue there's a fourth option: (4) Know a dude is scum, make sure you don't ever die without telling town, and try to use that knowledge to hunt MORE scum, not just the guy you know. Did it work? NOT PARTICULARLY WELL. But I don't think it's too farfetched to argue that if you know someone is scum, when he wants to lynch A and defends B, there's a decent chance that B is scum and A is not. Or at least that A is not. I believe I'm an idiot for taking it into account as much as I did, but I don't see it as not being something to use. Your 4th option is the same thing as the third option. You're playing the "long game" because you ddin't think you could get sandro lynched. And you're right, it's not out-of-this-world-unheard of for a scum to attack a townie and defend a scum partner (hell, attacking townies is what scum have to do to win a game), but its a fucking ridiculous assumption to assume that every person that a scum targets is town and everyone they defend is scum. And again: why didn't you do ANY kind of research into the matter? Maybe sandro loves to bus as scum every single game. Don't you think that would have affected your reads at all, if you wanted to play the "long game"? That's the part I don't get. Nothing you did matches up with what I would expect a reasonable person with a scum check to do. And I don't think you're an idiot in general, so that just leaves you lying and getting caught with your pants down. Tbh, I wasn't actually planning on having to convince people. I know he's scum. If he dies, you'll know he's scum. If I die, you'll know he's scum. And if I got lucky and caught someone else, same thing...the proof is in the flips. So nope, didn't go look at any past Sandroba games. No clue if he likes to bus. All I know is that other people say he's lazy as scum. That's it. I'd argue that he's been relatively lazy this game, ymmv on that. Just figured the fact that he's scum and that will eventually be proven would magically work, regardless of how he plays this game.
We aren't talking about why you didn't try to get Sandro killed. I thought we already agreed that was a terrible decision.
We're talking about why you pushed to get WBG lynched because of his interactions with Sandro, while simultaneously saving ShiaoPi. If you know Sandro is scum, those kinds of interactions with Sandro can definitely be mined for information, IF YOU KNOW HOW YOU EXPECT SANDRO TO ACT. Just assuming that "scum isn't going to attack a teammate or defend a townie" is such faulty logic (and I can give you as many examples as you want of the opposites being true) that I don't believe that even you, as pants-on-head as you can get at times, would assume that and leave NO room for any other explanation.
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Also, you were scum in Aperture 2. Your partner Hiro bussed your godfather/joat on day 1. Yet you didn't even CONSIDER the possibility that sandroba was? Or that WBG could actually be town?
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##Unvote
##Vote: sandroba
That makes more sense, at this point.
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Argg fuck me. I can't decide if I believe austin or not.
On the one hand, why would scum claim a red check when they had done nothing about ti? Like, if you I was going to fake claim with a red check, I would have at least said it was a red check on someone I had been pushing.
But on the other hand, I still can't get over:
On December 04 2012 05:05 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 04:46 wherebugsgo wrote:w/e, RB or not it doesn't really matter. + Show Spoiler [dota] +What DOES matter is that I just went 12-2-27 as invoker and still lost. This game is like a process of elimination right now. We have established several players as town and basically we just need to kill based on the flips we saw last night. It's that simple, really. I find it odd that BH is not around and talking, but certainly he has time to do so. Also seeing as sandro agrees with me it probably means shiao is scum lolol (<3 sandro scumhunting abilities) (1) We all know that WBG raged at his team, went afk in fountain with Exort invoker, and stole all those kills/assists with Suntrike. (2) I'd like to hear more from you concering folks that aren't ShiaoPi or VE. I got not problem with you sitting back D1, but short of other claims it looks like you or sandro or DYH would be the likely mafia targets tonight. For instance, you wanted to pressure these folks: Show nested quote +On December 02 2012 09:44 wherebugsgo wrote:
I also think we should be pressuring these players:
MrZentor
Zealos
Dandel Ion
Shiaopi
since they essentially got away with either abstaining or not doing anything all day 1. I haven't played with MrZ. I know he has a bit of a reputation. I've found him pretty clear and logical this whole game. Does that strike you as odd, or do you have a problem with that? Or does it make you think he's town? Do you still want to pressure him? Zealos hasn't posted since partway through D1. You brought him up a little in relation to VE, but what do you make of his actual posts. I didn't like them D1 when talking to LazerMonkey, BH found them townie, but you haven't said anything about the actual posts that he did make, which is all we have to go off of.
I can't wrap my head around any possible motivation for that bit about sandro being shot by scum. That REALLY pushes it towards feeling like a fake claim that just forgot something he said earlier.
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On December 07 2012 05:13 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2012 02:55 Keirathi wrote:Argg fuck me. I can't decide if I believe austin or not. On the one hand, why would scum claim a red check when they had done nothing about ti? Like, if you I was going to fake claim with a red check, I would have at least said it was a red check on someone I had been pushing. But on the other hand, I still can't get over: On December 04 2012 05:05 austinmcc wrote:On December 04 2012 04:46 wherebugsgo wrote:w/e, RB or not it doesn't really matter. + Show Spoiler [dota] +What DOES matter is that I just went 12-2-27 as invoker and still lost. This game is like a process of elimination right now. We have established several players as town and basically we just need to kill based on the flips we saw last night. It's that simple, really. I find it odd that BH is not around and talking, but certainly he has time to do so. Also seeing as sandro agrees with me it probably means shiao is scum lolol (<3 sandro scumhunting abilities) (1) We all know that WBG raged at his team, went afk in fountain with Exort invoker, and stole all those kills/assists with Suntrike. (2) I'd like to hear more from you concering folks that aren't ShiaoPi or VE. I got not problem with you sitting back D1, but short of other claims it looks like you or sandro or DYH would be the likely mafia targets tonight. For instance, you wanted to pressure these folks: On December 02 2012 09:44 wherebugsgo wrote:
I also think we should be pressuring these players:
MrZentor
Zealos
Dandel Ion
Shiaopi
since they essentially got away with either abstaining or not doing anything all day 1. I haven't played with MrZ. I know he has a bit of a reputation. I've found him pretty clear and logical this whole game. Does that strike you as odd, or do you have a problem with that? Or does it make you think he's town? Do you still want to pressure him? Zealos hasn't posted since partway through D1. You brought him up a little in relation to VE, but what do you make of his actual posts. I didn't like them D1 when talking to LazerMonkey, BH found them townie, but you haven't said anything about the actual posts that he did make, which is all we have to go off of. I can't wrap my head around any possible motivation for that bit about sandro being shot by scum. That REALLY pushes it towards feeling like a fake claim that just forgot something he said earlier. The problem is (for austinmcc) that there was no other option. WBG is dead, Zealos is dead, DYH is dead, BH is confirmed town. Who else did he push? He casted some suspicion on ShiaoPi early on, but didn't actually pursue that at any point - actually, quite the opposite. He's been soft defending ShiaoPi after the initial suspicion. He hasn't been pushing anyone he could conveniently frame now. So, his only option is to frame some non-confirmed townie he hasn't been pushing so far (Sandroba, Lazermonkey, debears, myself). Considering that there are possibly Mafia on this list, and that I'm a strong townread for several players, Sandroba isn't really a bad/weird pick for austinmcc. Nobody has him as a high townread and he hasn't done *too* much during this game. It's not a bad bet that he could manage to get Sandroba mislynched today - at least easier than someone like myself or especially one of BH/MrZ/Keirathi. I don't see how austinmcc choosing Sandroba as Mafia is unlikely at all.
You're missing the point I was trying to make.
If Austin was scum and wanted to fake claim to get sandro lynched, it would have made infinitely more sense to claim after the day post and say sandro killed DYH night 2.
The problem is that if Austin is town and had a red check yesterday...well pretty much anything else would have made infinitely more sense than what he actually did.
I don't know how to decide if his play was terrible scum or terrible town.
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On December 07 2012 06:11 austinmcc wrote:
Keirathi, and anyone else who might be interested in checking.
Obs QT in from Looney Lynching also had a small amount of chatter about how I'm a tard. Post 66, marv notes that I "get too caught up in [my] own web." Ta da.
Trust me, I know you can have your pants-on-head moments. I've talked with marv about it quite a lot.
Your tard moments are generally around setup speculation though. I just can't fathom you actually going FULL retard as town and doing nothing to push a red check. Even for you, that seems too extreme.
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Where the fuck is sandro though?
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Bleh.
I had a town read on sandro before the claim, and a scum read on austin. Austin's claim makes no sense from either alignment.
##Unvote
##Vote: austinmcc
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On December 07 2012 09:38 austinmcc wrote:
Grrrrrr, YOU'RE SUPPOSED TO NOT HAVE LOGS AND THEN WE CAN ALL YELL "GOTCHA!"
You claiming scum now?
Sweet.
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On December 07 2012 09:44 austinmcc wrote:
Like...in the logs BH says there are 3 scum and that we're at lylo-1.
I don't know why he knows that, but even seeing that I have a hard time thinking they're scum given the amount of actual stuff BH was just about to post without hesitation.
How many scum do you think there are?
4 scum is the most logical explanation. It means 4 mislynches for scum to win (3 to get to LYLO), which is the same as C9++ that doesn't have an SK. 3 scum would mean 5 mislynches for scum to win, which starts getting a lot harder.
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On December 07 2012 12:41 ShiaoPi wrote:
Ythis is such a bad wagon on austin....
Why?
Show me why Austin is town, and give me a reasonable explanation for his play yesterday.
Show me why sandro is scum.
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On December 07 2012 12:58 ShiaoPi wrote:
I am on my phone and cant do muchvright now :S
I want you to compare sandroba and austins play in regars of usefulness, attentiveness and townieness.
I have played with austin a couple of times and I am pretty sure that we got the townie obe here. Sandrona feels to me like DP in LVII and therefore in this 1 for 1 i am lynching snadroba
I already compared both of their filters and came to my own conclusions.
I want to know WHY you think sandro is scum and austin is town. What parts of their filter make you think that way?
And "Sandroba feels like DP" is a stupid fucking argument. Sandroba isn't DP. Him playing like DP isn't alignment indicative in any way because they are DIFFERENT FUCKING PEOPLE. The only thing that DP's play in LVII shows is how DP plays as scum, and that that style of play is something a scum COULD do. Comparing playstyles of two different players is just flat out dumb.
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On December 08 2012 02:59 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2012 02:49 austinmcc wrote:On December 08 2012 02:42 sandroba wrote:
I'm not being lazy, I just don't see the point in repeating the obvious ten times over. Austin is for sure putting in a good show, but that's to be expected since it's likely he put all his chips in this silly move. I am reading this constantly, I just don't feel like participating in this circular argument. Hi town, it's me, austinmcc, and I'm one of you. You are pretty sure that only one of Sandroba or I is town, and the other is mafia. I am either town and trying to figure the game out today, trying to leave you with my thoughts, trying to pull extra information out of other players OR I'm putting on a show of it. I'm asking for logs, I'm poking at lazermonkey, I'm actually doing things to get reads and push the game forward. But yes, I could be making a show of it. On the other hand, Sandroba, at most, is ... reading. That's nice of him, and it's nice he thinks today has just been a circular argument, but it hasn't. Today you will probably lynch me or lynch Sandroba. The game will almost certainly not end. Sandroba is putting no effort into the longer game. Sandroba is putting no effort into figuring things out. Sandroba is content to sit back and read, not engage, and do nothing. If I'm actually trying to push the game forward today, that fits. I'm town; he's scum; we're playing about how you'd expect. If I'm putting on a show of it...what is he doing? In that world, I'm mafia and he's town. Yet he's not making an effort to do anything beyond see me lynched. He's not trying to figure the game out, he's not engaging in any discussion, he's not asking for logs from our claimed masons. If you think that I'm just putting on a show, then why isn't Sandroba trying to do anything today? Becuase either he gets lynched today or tomorrow. There's no reason for him to put effort into this game, because he's dead either way. I'll flip watcher, you'll lynch him. There's absolutely no scenario where he survives and helps his team, so there's no reason for him to put in any effort. I'm actually starting to believe in the possibility of you being town. Sandroba playing like he has would definitely fit a Mafia who has given up and isn't going to leak any more information, since he's dead soon. But you've continued pushing even harder to play the game when your death has seemed almost certain. That's not how I'd expect Mafia to play at all. And if you're Mafia, you have really done an incredible job of appearing so townish throughout the game... I'm seriously reconsidering right now. Sandroba, how about you try adding something to the discussion?
Yea, I'm seriously considering switching again.
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##Unvote austinmcc
##Vote sandroba
My gut right now says that despite all the reasons to believe his claim is bullshit, that austin is just trying too hard to be scum.
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On December 08 2012 06:17 debears wrote:
Also, I would like this question answered.
Why would scum choose to trade off sandroba (if town), for austin (if scum) out of all the townies??????????????
Isn't it obvious?
Assuming austin is scum and sandro is town: if scum wanted to fake claim watcher with a red check, why should they pick as that red check? They can't pick one of the near-confirmed townies (me, BH, MrZ, DYH). That leaves the unconfirmed people. Of those unconfirmed people, sandro is considered the best player, and most likely to "figure the game out" at some point while scum can't NK him because they have to get rid of all the confirmed townies.
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On December 08 2012 06:27 debears wrote:
Ok Keir
What do you think the chances are that there would be 7 town power roles in light of the fact that we have not seen evidence of a rb so far?
Who the fuck knows.
It's a themed game and nothing about the claimed roles makes sense.
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On December 08 2012 06:51 debears wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2012 06:49 austinmcc wrote:On December 08 2012 06:48 debears wrote:
actually i'm strongly considering shiaopi
I'm way more certain he's scum over which of sandro/austin is
we get a scum lynch and then put of mylo for two more lynches (right?) We end up back in the same situation. All scum has to do from now on is send sandro to do the kills. Even if I see anything, it's sandro again, and not like that's going to change the information we have. Guys what do you think of that snap reaction by austin? Is that mafia logic or watcher logic?????
He already said the same thing hours ago, you just didn't read the thread 
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On December 08 2012 07:17 debears wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2012 06:54 austinmcc wrote:On December 08 2012 06:51 debears wrote:On December 08 2012 06:49 austinmcc wrote:On December 08 2012 06:48 debears wrote:
actually i'm strongly considering shiaopi
I'm way more certain he's scum over which of sandro/austin is
we get a scum lynch and then put of mylo for two more lynches (right?) We end up back in the same situation. All scum has to do from now on is send sandro to do the kills. Even if I see anything, it's sandro again, and not like that's going to change the information we have. Guys what do you think of that snap reaction by austin? Is that mafia logic or watcher logic????? It makes sense from both. In the same vein, you had me paranoid for a moment that this was a mafia attempt to shift things onto ShiaoPi as a mislynch, and avoid the 1 for 1 today, and waste town's time tomorrow because Sandroba would be super apparent as mafia. I don't think that's what is happening, I much prefer scum ShiaoPi to scum you. But any action can be WIFOMed like that. Lol. You know what I am paranoid about. You and sandro both being scum o.O It would be an epic strategy on your guys' part if you are both scum
I'm much more paranoid that scum actually has some abilities to make up for all the blues in the game, and that this is actually L/MYLO and scum austin is pulling a brilliant trick that will end the game tonight.
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On December 08 2012 07:37 Blazinghand wrote:
##unvote austinmcc
##vote shiaopi
Don't be dumb. We don't gain anything by voting ShiaoPi today, and then we have to go through this discussion again tomorrow.
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On December 08 2012 07:40 Blazinghand wrote:
fuck. da.polive.
If you are town, remind me to never play in a game with you again. Thanks.
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EPT
