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I came here half-expecting to see myself dead, but it looks like DYH made a perfect shot. Especially since VE had kind of dropped off the radar and wasn't in real danger of getting lynched anytime soon. I'm also glad that my first scumread was correct, although it was more of a "feel" read (since he had posted nothing of importance).
I'm not liking a BH lynch as much anymore. It's a good point that he had little reason to save the Vigi while putting himself to the spotlight by doing so. It would have been much easier to remain passive and let DYH die. Everything's possible, but Occam's razor points to BH = town being the more likely option based on this alone.
Looking at VE's filter, it seems to give some town points to at least debears, BH and myself. I'm torn on Zealos, because VE did vote for him, but he didn't provide any reasoning, just kind of dropped the vote and then quickly switched to DP when the bandwagon started to form on him. And looking at the own actions of Zealos, I'm liking him best as the lynch for today.
##Vote Zealos
I'm curious DYH, what's your read on me now? You pushed me for all of Day 1 but then (fortunately) didn't shoot me anyway. I'm also very interested to hear why you chose to shoot VE, and what do you think of all the interactions between me and VE? And who would be your top lynches right now?
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On December 03 2012 01:47 ShiaoPi wrote:
On my watchlist right now:
-Marv depending on night actions
-DYH see above
These two are the obvious ones, then I still want to keep tabs on BH and Xata (whom I have kind of forgot earlier in d1)
BH led a mislynch, while that happens to anyone of us, i still dislike the way je insisted on SP being scum, when he was willing to swap earlier tarfets, stubbornness in a read aint necessaeily scum, but still.
In regards to xata there has been a lot about him alreasy by others I am not going to rehash that. But his last post was pure fluff so it kind of adds up.
I'm puzzled by that last statement. First of all, my latest post before this post of yours was nothing like "pure fluff". It had my reasoning for why DYH felt townish, WBG felt townish and BH felt scummy to me at the time. Maybe my speculation about the night actions was a bit fluffy, but it was only a part of that post. How did the whole post become "pure fluff"?? In addition to this lackluster reasoning, there's nothing suggesting I'm scummy except what "others have said". This whole post seems almost too familiar to me. It's like I'm looking at VE's post where he jumped on the debears bandwagon by just adding something unconvincing of his own and repeating earlier statements. It feels like you just wanted to have me as a convenient lynch option without committing in any way. Granted, it's only a feeling, but I got the same initial feeling when VE made his move against debears. In fact, it's enough that I'd want to lynch you if it weren't for Zealos. His actions during Day 1 feel the scummiest of all.
I'm not sure what to think of the BH vs Keirathi showdown. Something tells me it might even be a town vs town situation... Or then one is Mafia. It seems pretty unbelievable that such a long interaction would be fake, so it's almost impossible for both to be Mafia. I'm not willing to lynch either of them for today, though, since there's a decent chance both might be town. Lynching into Zealos/ShiaoPi, on the other hand, there's a decent chance they could even both be Mafia. Of my other original suspects VE was obviously Mafia and DYH is now confirmed town, and Dandel Ion was replaced by sandroba (who feels townish so far) so I'm not willing to lynch other players at this moment.
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On December 03 2012 19:51 wherebugsgo wrote:The fact that BH thinks Keirathi is scum is an attest to him either being scum or stupid. Neither works out well. As I said earlier, I think we should consider ShiaoPi as a lynch candidate. I also thought that we should consider Dandel/sandro today but based on sandro's contributions so far I don't think that's a good idea. If sandro continues being useful I'm inclined to call him town; he's remarkably easy to catch as scum. I wouldn't mind killing BH but I have an inkling he's just being dumb. Clearly I should've erred on the side of "marvel is saying stupid stuff about DP" instead of "marvel is scum because of how he can't see DP is town." (and once again I should've trusted my earlier read) The tl;dr reason for why I think we should consider ShiaoPi is this: Show nested quote +On December 02 2012 05:33 VisceraEyes wrote:On December 02 2012 05:12 austinmcc wrote:On December 02 2012 05:00 VisceraEyes wrote:
Yeah, that's where I'm at with Zealos too austin, which puts me at a crossroads because Zealos also voted for Xatalos.
:/
MARV COME HERE I WANT YOU Why exactly are you voting Xatalos? He's scum hiding inside a tunnel = he's doing nothing but tunneling someone as a way to look active when he's doing nothing? Shiao is.......I want to wait on Shiao. At least a day. Maybe tomorrow. I'm not really reading Shiao as scum right now. Also note I'm less willing to lynch BH and Zealos given how some events unfolded and this: Show nested quote +On December 02 2012 05:33 VisceraEyes wrote:
As it stands, I'm willing to lynch inside [Zealos, Dandel, Blazinghand] today. In that order.
##Unvote
##Vote: Zealos Of note is that VE's only mentions of Dandel came in this post, which make it entirely plausible that VE was simply throwing forward Dandel's name to distance himself from a scumbuddy. His only mentions of Shiao also come in this post. In general scum ignore some of their team and thrust some others into the limelight. It serves to hedge both bets; one that they can potentially bus, and the other that they can preserve their team. Almost every scum does this, and I don't think VE is any exception to that. While he mentions Shiao and Dandel only in these posts, he mentions other players (such as Zealos, whom he actually voted for) in other posts and multiple times with at least cursory reasoning. In addition he pushed dabears fairly aggressively, as if he was looking for people to bandwagon with him on dabears. That makes me feel like it's unlikely dabears is scum (although I already had a town read on him anyway) and I think it strengthens the idea that VE interacted more with townies than with his fellow scum. Anyway, a lot of this is connection-based, but given that these players have been flying under the radar, there isn't much else to put on the table with respect to their play anyway. To rehash what I said earlier about Dandel/sandro; since sandro seems to be helpful, let's leave him alive. His presence has caused my read of him to improve, since Dandel literally didn't do anything at all. If sandro is indeed town he's our best player anyway. Of the remaining players I think LazerMonkey also deserves attention. Off the top of my head I can't think of any strong positions he's taken all game, and that's not something you generally note about townies. (curiously, VE never mentions LazerMonkey once, unless you count an indirect mention of an observation I made of Lazer) ##vote ShiaoPi
I agree with pretty much everything in this post. You also raise good points about Lazermonkey and Zealos. Almost nothing comes to my mind when I think about Lazermonkey, and that's never a good sign. And about Zealos - I don't think it's that unusual to throw a vote at your scumbuddy like that. Even so, your point about the vague reference to ShiaoPi by VE, combined with VE choosing to vote for Zealos near the deadline despite many other options, leads me to believe that ShiaoPi might in fact be the better lynch for today. Still... I can't shake the doubt that VE was only distancing from Zealos by throwing that vote at him, then changing his vote soon after. That's why my vote stays on Zealos for the time being.
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On December 03 2012 21:38 sandroba wrote:
Hmm Bugs does have a point. Also if we assume BH is town ShiaoPi does fit the same theme as VE yesterday. A totally unimpactful player that just stood by the sidelines, because their team was never in danger. I'm willing to roll with that because I'm getting cold feet about BH flipping scum (VE mentioning he is okay with lynching him/zealos should at least make us consider looking in another direction) and Shiao isn't doing shit so it's less risk involved.
##Vote: ShiaoPi
Hmm. Alright, I can agree with lynching ShiaoPi today. It also helps that I have a town read on both you and WBG. And ShiaoPi hasn't been lurking quite as heavily as Zealos, but he hasn't done anything either.
##Unvote
##Vote ShiaoPi
Although I'm wondering where Zealos has disappeared. And Lazermonkey. What we need now is more posts by several players who haven't done anything for a while (or even all game).
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On December 03 2012 23:18 wherebugsgo wrote:
ye sandro has it correct. A scum who is not going to die or is not under in any pressure to bus is almost certainly not going to bus.
Any of VE's pushes that "seemed" genuine were probably on townies.
I guess that's a fair assumption, but not foolproof. For example, I bussed my scumbuddy hard in a previous game although I wasn't in any immediate danger - just to gain towncred and win the game with that. And VE didn't even BUS Zealos, he just throwed a vote at him and easily changed it away from him. I think that's very possibly just some distancing, not necessarily bussing or genuine lynch effort. Even so, I agree that VE's comment on ShiaoPi was much more suspicious than his vote for Zealos. VE seemed pretty reluctant to even talk about ShiaoPi, and he was especially uncomfortable with the thought of lynching ShiaoPi. The obvious explanation is that ShiaoPi is Mafia, although it's only a piece of circumstantial evidence. Still, combined with ShiaoPi's clear background role and lack of effort to achieve anything, he's definitely a good lynch candidate.
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On December 04 2012 00:24 ShiaoPi wrote:hai bandwagon much? Anyway, let me first write up what I wanted to yesterday but could not get to before defending myself from bugs. Catching up to the thread I am gonna scratch pretty much all of what I had yesterday. I am going to comment on some of the remaining players now, with a reread of the thread: BH: Fuck what I said, I am leaning town on him now. Zealos: I would like to get rid of him as he is just a useless lurking piece of space at the moment. His saving grace is firstly that there are better lynches today and secondly (and more importantly) he got voted by VE. While VE is scum and therefore his votes are much more likely to end up on townies (see later in the day with DP and DYH) I don't feel like just taking his filter as 100%-foolproof evidence, heck he softdefended me and I am fucking town. Xatalos: This is more or less where it gets interesting. Before the reread I had a scumread on him, this is largely due to the fact that he has an incredibly annoying (to me) way to express his thoughts, convoluted to no end, e.g.: + Show Spoiler +On December 02 2012 22:46 Xatalos wrote:
I can somewhat relate to your reasons for voting DP... Although they're still narrow-minded reasons, they're not necessarily scummy reasons. Combined with my intuition telling me your late roleclaim wasn't any elaborate Mafia tactic (which it could possibly be, but I have problems believing it - Occam's razor points to the simpler explanation), I'm starting to lean slightly town on you. In addition, such heavy tunneling isn't really townish, but it's not an effective Mafia playstyle either. Mafia would rather leave their options open, not limit them willingly.
What's a good point is that Mafia might have a roleblocker. If they roleblock you, we're back to square one and have to decide the truth of your roleclaim with what you've said, not with your power usage. In any case, you should claim your shot RIGHT before the deadline. Let's consider the options for Mafia if they don't have time to change their roleblock action based on your target:
1) They can roleblock you, preventing you from becoming a confirmed Vanilla Townie (after your shot has been used). But if you just shoot me or some other townie (and you're not a very threatening presence to Mafia in any case), it might be beneficial for Mafia to let the shot go through. They'd get rid of one townie and just lose one mislynch candidate.
2) They can skip using a roleblock or roleblock marvellosity instead (in case he didn't fakeclaim). This would make you a confirmed Vanilla Townie but potentially prevent marvellosity's night action and most of all likely kill 2 townies in a single night.
If you claim your shot early, Mafia will have an easy time deciding their best course of action. If you do it at the deadline, Mafia will have to take a risk and decide their possible roleblock usage without information about your target. Although I guess it has to be me after all this tunneling, which kind of makes me hope you're fakeclaiming, but you never know.
Reading the exchange between WBG and BH, I'm starting to lean on WBG being town and BH being Mafia. WBG's reasoning is coherent and townish, but BH looks like he's just dodging issues and ignoring facts while doing what he decided beforehand (pushing the lynch to DP, next up DYH). What's even weirder is the contradiction between his earlier and later playstyle: at first he swinged his vote around for the smallest reasons, but then he wouldn't budge from getting DP lynched no matter what. Where did this confidence suddenly come from, considering his earlier wishy-washiness? And even with his arguments being repeatedly refuted? I'm just getting more and more suspicious of BH the more I think about it. this entire post can be summed up into this: -I think you are town DYH, because of the reasons for tunneling you just shared and the late claim -Please claim your shot just before deadline to avoid too much chance for mafia to interfere, oh and wifom -I am getting a townread on WBG and BH leans scum to me or his last post: + Show Spoiler +On December 03 2012 23:59 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2012 23:18 wherebugsgo wrote:
ye sandro has it correct. A scum who is not going to die or is not under in any pressure to bus is almost certainly not going to bus.
Any of VE's pushes that "seemed" genuine were probably on townies. I guess that's a fair assumption, but not foolproof. For example, I bussed my scumbuddy hard in a previous game although I wasn't in any immediate danger - just to gain towncred and win the game with that. And VE didn't even BUS Zealos, he just throwed a vote at him and easily changed it away from him. I think that's very possibly just some distancing, not necessarily bussing or genuine lynch effort. Even so, I agree that VE's comment on ShiaoPi was much more suspicious than his vote for Zealos. VE seemed pretty reluctant to even talk about ShiaoPi, and he was especially uncomfortable with the thought of lynching ShiaoPi. The obvious explanation is that ShiaoPi is Mafia, although it's only a piece of circumstantial evidence. Still, combined with ShiaoPi's clear background role and lack of effort to achieve anything, he's definitely a good lynch candidate. It just hurts to look at it imo, the information within the post is so little in relation to the lengt Look through Xata's filter, it's full of elaborate stuff without a real conclusion/course of action. This is a clear scumtell in my eyes, no need for that much fluff if you are contributing. There are also a lot of "cases" which he never followed up entirely in a committing way. The problem I have with a potential scum-Xata is that he is making sense. Also he did not jump on the marv bandwagon d1, something I think scum would have loved to do, having a real chance to get a really good player mislynched d1. Conclusion on Xata, null leaning slightly in the red. Just because I mentioned DYH in my post before, he is confirmed town to me, I don't buy shenanigans with scum shooting themselves and stuff. Now on to the good stuff: KeirathiObviously my changed read on BH is important for a red kei. but let's start from looking at ace: -He has been dickish, trolly and unhelpful, not exactly a scumtell but it adds to the entire picture. -What makes me wonder is especially the parts in his filter with "shiao/debears/DYH"-interaction and "shiao/VE/DP"-interaction. I do not remember having thoroughly interacted much with DYH, there were some questions from debears which I answered, also I did not interact with VE/DP in a remarkable kind of way. So I have no clue where he got this from, conclusions he does not read the thread thoroughly and makes shit up as he goes to appear contributing. Moving on to Kei now, While I initially agreed with a lot of his points against BH, I was also in the game from the beginning. Now with a clear reread I do not read BH as scummy anymore, from someone who replaces in I would expect him to have a clear mindset as well and I believe Keirathi to be a good enough player to be able to come to the same conclusion as I did. The entire amount of tunneling onto BH as an "easy" target seems to me like an attempt to just derail the entire thread into bascially the same discussion we had at the end of d1. Also the complete disregard for anything else, why? Cuz scum! ##vote: KeirathiBefore I forget it, honorable mention to Lazermonkey, get out of your lurkhole and do something, you are pretty much up next right after Kei!
Hmmmm. I guess you're right about my tendency to say things in too many words, haha... This has always been the case, though, especially when I have time to think (close to a deadline I often write more concisely, for example). But I still don't understand why you called my posting "pure fluff" earlier when you could find plenty of good points (that even "make sense" to you) now... Where's the logic in that?
On another topic, I like your analysis of Ace/Keirathi. I haven't quite had him as a scumread at any point, but not as a townread either. Ace's weird "X/Y/Z interaction" posts and Keirathi's pure focus on BH aren't looking good. It's hard to judge a replacement player, but nothing in either of their filters screams "town!", and that's suspicious in itself.
In light of your latest post, I'm not so sure about you being the right lynch anymore. Luckily we have still like 30 hours before the deadline, so we should be able to get a lot more info to decide the correct lynch before the deadline hits - at least if people would start being more active, that is......
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On December 04 2012 02:52 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 02:37 wherebugsgo wrote:On December 04 2012 02:02 Keirathi wrote:On December 04 2012 01:49 wherebugsgo wrote:On December 04 2012 01:40 Keirathi wrote:On December 03 2012 22:24 sandroba wrote:
Well the thing is that VE didn't know he was gonna die. Do you think he would agree preemptively to lynch zealos in that case? I think our best bet is to ignore those 2 for now at least. I actually generally have the complete opposite opinion about that. Scum on day 1 like to throw suspicion against each other if there's no pressure that they are going to get lynched. At least that's what I did in my only scum game. maybe bad scum do, cause that's fucking stupid. So what do good scum do? Ignore their partners? Give them town reads? Neither of those are very optimal either and can just as easily be picked up on. ?? We're talking about d1, when a confirmed scum was under no pressure at all. People don't bus just for the hell of it. When they do, they get caught later because they sacrificed too much of their team to live. Think about it, if someone gets enough cred for bussing early, people will question why they're alive later. It's just not worth it for scum to bus so early. But I don't think he was TRYING to get Zealos lynched. I mean, he made the one case, left his vote for an hour and a half without mentioning him again, then hopped off onto the DP wagon. If he had put more effort into it, maybe I could buy that argument.
I have to say I agree with this point. I mentioned it earlier: I just can't see where VE was "bussing" Zealos. There's a big difference between bussing and distancing. When you bus, you actually try to get your scumbuddy lynched. When you distance, you just throw a vote at him and maybe provide some reason for that. What VE did fits with the latter, not the former.
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On December 03 2012 20:03 wherebugsgo wrote:
forgot to mention:
to lend credence to my idea that VE was more willing to interact with townies than scum, note these cursory/sort of nebulous things:
If you ctrl-f "marv" in VE's filter, you get the most hits out of anyone else in the game: 23.
Ace: 21 (24 minus 3 occurrences of "ace" in a larger word)
bugs: 15
blazing/bh/blz: 22
Xata: 14
DYH/doyou: 11
Zealos: 7
shiao/shaio: 5
austin: 5
LazerMonkey/Lazer: 2
Dandel: 2
MrZentor/Zentor/Mr: 0.
I find it funny that this is almost directly correlated with the read I had on each player.
By the way, this list is a piece of circumstantial evidence (at best...) but a pretty interesting list anyway. Considering that I have the "top 6" of this list as town reads (including marv, myself and DYH of course) - except Ace/Keirathi, whom I'm undecided about yet - I don't think I'm willing to lynch Keirathi today.
This might seem like a stupid reason, but I agree with WBG that Mafia wouldn't unnecessarily interact with each other in the thread - this idea is given further credibility by he fact that VE mostly interacted with proven and probable townies (marv, WBG, DYH, BH, myself). I had austinmcc as a strong townread earlier, but maybe I'll have to take a closer look at him. I'm willing to give Dandel/Sandroba a pass though, since Dandel didn't interact with pretty much anyone and Sandroba has been very helpful with his posts. MrZentor and Lazermonkey are big mysteries to me... They need to post more content ASAP to make our lives easier. Zealos and ShiaoPi are also at the bottom, and I'm leaning heavily on lynching one of them at the moment.
Any input on this?
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Meh... Forget about austinmcc. Looking at his filter again, there are so many townish posts standing out, I can't force myself to believe he's Mafia. If he somehow happened to be Mafia, then he's an extremely good liar. No way I'm voting for him unless something drastic happens.
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(Host: my vote is for ShiaoPi, not for Zealos...)
I don't really like the way how WBG dodges questions and creates spam, making the thread less constructive. Still, I just can't see him as Mafia. He's been one of the most active players - and no, I don't mean just post count, I mean he's actively engaging with everything that's happening in the thread. Many of his posts are of no content, but mostly he has insight into whatever he says, and he comments on a lot of things - compare that to Keirathi for example, who doesn't apparently want to share his insight on almost anything. Or even more so to the players who have been trying to hide from attention all game. DYH also had some good points about WBG. And last but not the least, I just don't personally see WBG being Mafia. He appears much more genuinely frustrated and careless than pressured or scared whenever he rants. This all leads me to believe it would be idiotic to lynch WBG. I'm amazed how so many people actually want to lynch him at the moment.
Keirathi, I'm still on the fence about you. Please share your top lynch candidates and your reasons for those. And share your insight into more topics as well. A part of my read on ShiaoPi also depends on you, since I doubt he would have went after his teammate when he was pressured to make a case.
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(I did unvote before, but here it goes again)
##Unvote
##Vote ShiaoPi
On December 04 2012 12:32 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 12:25 Xatalos wrote:
Keirathi, I'm still on the fence about you. Please share your top lynch candidates and your reasons for those. And share your insight into more topics as well. A part of my read on ShiaoPi also depends on you, since I doubt he would have went after his teammate when he was pressured to make a case. Was 3 people with reasoning not enough? :o
Hmm... I think I'm giving you pass for now. Your recent activity has been good and I think I underestimated your earlier transparency. That leaves Zealos, ShiaoPi and Lazermonkey for today. At least as far as I can agree with. None of them have done much lately, so it's hard to judge the right choice, and Zealos doesn't seem like a realistic option (for stupid reasons like "VE voted for him at some point" - so??). Luckily the deadline isn't close yet.
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On December 04 2012 13:51 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 13:39 debears wrote:On December 04 2012 12:56 Keirathi wrote:On December 04 2012 12:52 DoYouHas wrote:
WBG kept using being right about DP as a reason he isn't scum. Why does that make sense? With his vote on the DT, and DP/myself also being town, I don't see how he can take the high ground there. If WBG had his way we would have lynched the DT. It is just WIFOM over whether or not a scum WBG would defend DP.
Keirathi/austin - I'll redirect my question that I asked WBG (but he seems to want to ignore) to both of you. What did you think of my vote analysis that led me to Lazer? If you disagree, why? I agree with the premise of it. There almost certainly was at least one scum on the DP vote. I personally still think BH is that scum because of my meta case, but I can understand why people don't believe so because of his unvote. And I do have a town read on debears myself. Why isn't laser scummy? Or why is BH scummier? He (laser) hasn't been active today. It's pretty alarming to me I've said multiple times why I think BH is scummy. Even ignoring the roleblock thing, look at my meta case on him. BH hasn't been interacting with people, trying to get them to talk about his scum reads. He just throws a name and case out there, argues with that person, then moves on when its pertinent, and I don't think switching votes from one townie to the other at the last second, when BH's scum meta is to be trolly and 'suboptimal', makes up for that. But other people aren't buying it, so I've stopped trying to push him for now. As for Lazer: Show nested quote +On December 02 2012 06:15 Lazermonkey wrote:
Austin! You've been posting suspicion on several players now but are yet to cast a vote. Who is, in your opinion, top second etc scum read?
Particularly that post gave me a townie feel. This was after his big fight with DP, and calling Zealos out. Why would scum LM then, seeing austin doing something that could be considered "scummy", engage him by trying to get him to give reads and start discussion? It would make much more sense for scum LM to just call out austin and leave it at that.
Ugh, this game is making my head hurt. There are both towny and scummy traits in almost every filter. What worries me most about Lazermonkey is his lack of presence in the thread (I can't even remember his stance on ANYTHING from the top of my head). But looking at his filter again, I agree with many things he says and I don't get the feeling he's playing scummy WHEN he's playing. Then I looked at DYH's reasoning for voting Lazermonkey and I agree that Lazermonkey is the best Mafia candidate of those who voted DP to be lynched (especially since Lazermonkey's vote was such a weird OMGUS vote out of thin air). I'd really like other people's opinions on Lazermonkey right now.
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Sigh, so that's what this was all about.
##Unvote Zealos
##Vote ShiaoPi
On December 04 2012 14:32 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 14:11 Xatalos wrote:On December 04 2012 13:51 Keirathi wrote:On December 04 2012 13:39 debears wrote:On December 04 2012 12:56 Keirathi wrote:On December 04 2012 12:52 DoYouHas wrote:
WBG kept using being right about DP as a reason he isn't scum. Why does that make sense? With his vote on the DT, and DP/myself also being town, I don't see how he can take the high ground there. If WBG had his way we would have lynched the DT. It is just WIFOM over whether or not a scum WBG would defend DP.
Keirathi/austin - I'll redirect my question that I asked WBG (but he seems to want to ignore) to both of you. What did you think of my vote analysis that led me to Lazer? If you disagree, why? I agree with the premise of it. There almost certainly was at least one scum on the DP vote. I personally still think BH is that scum because of my meta case, but I can understand why people don't believe so because of his unvote. And I do have a town read on debears myself. Why isn't laser scummy? Or why is BH scummier? He (laser) hasn't been active today. It's pretty alarming to me I've said multiple times why I think BH is scummy. Even ignoring the roleblock thing, look at my meta case on him. BH hasn't been interacting with people, trying to get them to talk about his scum reads. He just throws a name and case out there, argues with that person, then moves on when its pertinent, and I don't think switching votes from one townie to the other at the last second, when BH's scum meta is to be trolly and 'suboptimal', makes up for that. But other people aren't buying it, so I've stopped trying to push him for now. As for Lazer: On December 02 2012 06:15 Lazermonkey wrote:
Austin! You've been posting suspicion on several players now but are yet to cast a vote. Who is, in your opinion, top second etc scum read?
Particularly that post gave me a townie feel. This was after his big fight with DP, and calling Zealos out. Why would scum LM then, seeing austin doing something that could be considered "scummy", engage him by trying to get him to give reads and start discussion? It would make much more sense for scum LM to just call out austin and leave it at that. Ugh, this game is making my head hurt. There are both towny and scummy traits in almost every filter. What worries me most about Lazermonkey is his lack of presence in the thread (I can't even remember his stance on ANYTHING from the top of my head). But looking at his filter again, I agree with many things he says and I don't get the feeling he's playing scummy WHEN he's playing. Then I looked at DYH's reasoning for voting Lazermonkey and I agree that Lazermonkey is the best Mafia candidate of those who voted DP to be lynched (especially since Lazermonkey's vote was such a weird OMGUS vote out of thin air). I'd really like other people's opinions on Lazermonkey right now. If his lack of presence is the most worrying thing, why Lazer over Zealos, who hasn't done a goddamn thing? Lazer might have OMGUS voted DP, but that's at least SOMETHING. Zealos was a non-factor day 1 and day 2.
I'm not really sure what you're saying. I never said that I'd find Lazermonkey more suspicious than Zealos. It's just the fact that Zealos doesn't seem like a realistic option at this point - I could try to get him lynched still, but I doubt it's happening for today. I'm somewhat equally willing to lynch ShiaoPi, though, so that's fine with me.
I'm also starting to consider Lazermonkey as a townread. His recent posts give me a townish feel and DYH's argument about there having to be a Mafia on the DP bandwagon isn't foolproof by any means. In addition, a ShiaoPi/Lazermonkey scumteam is looking pretty unlikely at this point, but I'm seeing ShiaoPi as Mafia, which means Lazermonkey would be town.
I still can't understand the bandwagon on WBG. His attitude might need improvement, yeah, but... He's looking more and more like a genuinely frustrated townie as the game goes on. Call it intuition, but I can't see a world where Mafia would be so eager to jump into arguments and share their opinion on everything without any apparent fear for their own safety. It just doesn't make any sense for Mafia WBG to be playing like this.
On December 04 2012 21:56 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 20:20 ShiaoPi wrote:Answer time: On December 04 2012 09:53 Keirathi wrote:
-snip-
Why are you leaning town on him now? What in your read through changed your mind? Why do you think I should have come to the same conclusion? I am leaning town on him now, because of several things: -letting DYH survive -I was able to see where he was coming from, while reading the filter again, in regards to the way he played it out. -BH's post n1/d2 have all been much more helpful than d1 and also more helpful than you are. Point 1: Fine. Point 2: Huh? Point 3: And here's the kind of thing about you that I have a problem again. This is a bullshit line that doesn't MEAN anything. What about him has been helpful? What about me has been unhelpful? Fucking use some posts to back yourself up. Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 20:20 ShiaoPi wrote:On December 04 2012 18:53 Lazermonkey wrote:
I have read several times what you wrote about Xata, unless I'm missing something in which case you should feel free to show that. I still think it's scum indicative. I don't have to convince on the fact that I think you are you are scum tho so I will leave it at that.
Still think your reasons for pushing BH are weak.
Okay please tell me why you are going after Keir then. Because when I read your post where you voted Keir, your reasons were IMO some WFIOM that wasn't alignment indicative followed up with you saying his reasons to vote BH was weak.
Keir I haven't looked too much into. But based on the fact that no scum with their right in mind would ever push BH at this point I'm leaning town on him.
Regarding WBG, I really liked the case of debeas. And I quite dislike WBG response to everyone, which was basically everyone who agree with this are retards. I don't have anything to add to the case on him but he is a strong scum read atm and I'm 100% willing to vote him atm.
You are totally in gaga-land right? Judging from your post it seems as nothing I say will make you stop this stupid tunnel. Not even looking into Keir at this point is just utterly incomprehensible to me. Take a look at his filter and at Ace's, now first off Ace, he has been entirely unhelpful for d1, just sniping in comments without much reasoning (oh and he was a dick anyway), now look at Keirathis entrance, it totally derails the thread into the discussion at the end of d1 with his insane tunnel on BH, also his unwillingness to do anything besides tunneling is irking me out, but since you are doing the same with me, I guess that did not matter much to you. screw you, done talking with you. Yet more pointless bullshit with nothing to back it up. My unwillingness to do anything but tunnel BH? I've literally commented on more people/things since I joined the game than you have since the start of day 1. Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 20:20 ShiaoPi wrote:Now moving on: I do not like the way bugs reacted to the pressure at all, he is doing nothing to confront the case, just repeatedly saying that it is bad, while being totally unhelpful on why exactly I should be lynched. I mean even Kei has started to slowly look somewhere else than BH and is by now more useful than bugs.... Also this: + Show Spoiler +On December 04 2012 11:20 Blazinghand wrote:Ok, WBG I'm putting as a scumread. His efforts in the thread seem largely based on smacking down attempts at scumhunting and having a good thread atmosphere. WBG doesn't just slap people around, he likes to ask hard questions, and also questions that draw out people's reads and force them to contribute or reveal their scummy nature. WBG is not by any means a bad player. I don't think that squares with his interactions like this: Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 11:03 wherebugsgo wrote:On December 04 2012 10:59 Blazinghand wrote:Well, I must say the case on ShiaoPi DOES exist, but I don't see him as a good lynch today, for a couple of reasons. Although VE's interactions towards ShiaoPi don't paint ShiaoPi as town, I don't find ShiaoPi's interactions towards Marv or VE to indicate he was acting with scum motive. Typically ShiaoPi is a player who is analytical, thinks a lot, and doesn't write lots of big cases. When he does, though, they're logically consistent and show his mindset. I don't like that he backs of Xalatos in his big post on page 59. I don't think Xalatos is any townier now than he was yesterday. He says he has a "clear scumtell" from Xatalos but the voting pattern doesn't line up. I disagree with this, and I think ShiaoPi would realize that scum would much rather shoot than push Marv, who is a dangerous player as town. In fact, Marv is known for getting shot N1. I just don't think that ShiaoPi would reread Xalatos filter, and find him scummy but say that Xalatos' saving grace is that he didn't vote Marv. Scum shot marv-- they always had the ability to do so. I like that he voted Keirathi, because Keirathi is scum. But ShaioPi's thoughts on Xalatos are not consistent with someone who is thinking critically about Xatalos' play and finding him scummy but with exceptions. I'd be willing to consider a ShiaoPi lynch today if people aren't willing to get on board with Keirathi. As it stands, though Keirathi is a better lynch. The fact that this is his chief contribution aside from defending himself and tunnelling me is apalling. On December 04 2012 04:03 Keirathi wrote:On December 04 2012 03:39 DoYouHas wrote:
Keirathi, what I have gathered about you is that you think Sandro is town, and the rest is you pushing BH. You put together a pretty good case against BH based off of you following along even when you weren't playing. Are there any other players you had strong opinions/thoughts on that are still relevant? Strong opinions? Not particularly. I'm minorly interested in ShiaoPi/Zealos/(kinda)austin, outside of BH. (Maybe MrZ too, but I have no fucking clue how to read him.) Zealos because he hasn't done a damn thing. ShiaoPi because he didn't seem very invested in the game day 1, was happy to go along with the BH lynch while it was the popular opinion, and then happily changed his mind again as soon as the popular opinion was that BH was probably town. austin just because he's hard to read and he played follow-the-leader with his voting, which kind of reminds me of how he played in aperture. pure waffling. Where are your reads? where's your pressure, Keirathi? You are scum trying to wriggle out of the spotlight now that you've realized your case on me is revealed for what it is! more bad meta usage. gtfo, you don't know what you're talking about. This isn't helping the town atmosphere, this is smacking down a guy trying to help. It's weird he thinks of me as scum but wants to lynch ShiaoPi, also. Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 07:01 wherebugsgo wrote:your argument falls down to basically "you're not scum because you didn't wreck the thread by arguing with me like you did with Erandorr." If you can't see where that logic falls on its face then yes, you are indeed so biased that I was correct in ignoring you. Why would I make the same mistake twice? On December 04 2012 06:59 debears wrote:
EBWOP
and it hasn't made u look terrible. Everyone has town reads on you o.O you say that as if it was foreseeable. Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 07:07 wherebugsgo wrote:On December 04 2012 07:00 debears wrote:
WBG what was your read on DYH heading into lynch before the claim? didn't really have one, since I didn't look into his posts on d1. I think I read his posts more carefully after BH said he found DYH to be scummy. My concern was more with why people were ignoring other players such as Lazer, Zealos, etc. (all the lurkers/coasters) and why BH + marv would ever think DP was scum. Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 07:35 wherebugsgo wrote:On December 04 2012 07:34 debears wrote:On December 04 2012 07:07 wherebugsgo wrote:On December 04 2012 07:00 debears wrote:
WBG what was your read on DYH heading into lynch before the claim? didn't really have one, since I didn't look into his posts on d1. I think I read his posts more carefully after BH said he found DYH to be scummy. My concern was more with why people were ignoring other players such as Lazer, Zealos, etc. (all the lurkers/coasters) and why BH + marv would ever think DP was scum. Why didn't you look into his posts when he was one of the top two vote getters? I did, and I thought marv was scummier. Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 07:42 DoYouHas wrote:While I've got you here bugs. Can you give me your thoughts on my Lazermonkey case? (Clicky) WBG dodges DYH's question and explains himself, but he doesn't press debears, asking him for his own reads, and he doesn't call people out asking for their top scumreads and asking why. WBG makes posts like this: Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 08:19 wherebugsgo wrote:
cool, I was right. You're biased and bad. Let's move on. Show nested quote +On December 02 2012 09:58 wherebugsgo wrote:
also I find it ironic that you are trying to discredit me now when you tried to use past results to justify that your trash case on DP.
When he could be making more posts like this: Show nested quote +On December 02 2012 09:54 wherebugsgo wrote:On December 02 2012 09:51 Blazinghand wrote:On December 02 2012 09:40 wherebugsgo wrote:
Go back and look at how BH switches his votes and how he reasons them. Look at how he attacks DP. I made by far the best case against DP, a solid (though as it turns out, ultimately incorrect) meta case. I sat down and did the homework on it. I'm gonna admit the reasoning on the MrZ vote was bad, but if your critique of my play is "BH swaps around a lot" then yeah okay I swap around a lot, but that's just how I roll. On December 02 2012 09:40 wherebugsgo wrote:
Firstly, one could argue that voteswitching doesn't really tell us anything about how BH is scum or not. Sure, one could argue that, but then consider that BH doesn't do any work in pushing his targets either. He switches really often, usually with no attached reason, and he's so erratic that no one really knows what he's going to do or why he's going to do it.
ALWAYS with an attached reason, usually because unlike you I actually try to interact with people in this thread and listen to what they have to say. I don't think people here are retarded. I don't like getting talked out of things, but if someone genuinely convinces me that a read is wrong, then yes I will unvote and vote someone else because my goal is to lynch scum. On December 02 2012 09:40 wherebugsgo wrote:
As town I feel like BH usually at least gives reasons for attacking people. It looks as if he feigned contribution on DP/Zentor,
Zentor was a mistake, but I DID put in lots of work on both him and DP. just because I use links instead of quotes to make my meta cases more legible doesn't mean they're bad. On December 02 2012 09:40 wherebugsgo wrote:and stuff like this: On December 02 2012 07:01 Blazinghand wrote:
Wow all these people agreeing with me to lynch DP and I'm the only one with a good reason. Don't look gift horses in the mouth I guess suggests that he's more concerned with his appearance than actually finding scum. What? It suggests that I'm dubious of people on my wagon but I'm still confident in my read. On December 02 2012 09:40 wherebugsgo wrote:
What's especially weird is his vote switches between DP and DYH. These are just done for no reason at all and he never states why his suspicion of either changes as he does it.
Lastly, I haven't heard anyone yet say that they find BH to be townie. Notice how people consistently call him scum (even marv did) and no one really considers him town, but there's always a different target with the attention on them. I trust MrZ's read and I thought it was reasonable. I still think it's reasonable and DYH is scummy, and I swapped back to DP because I don't lynch blues D1. the "best case" on DP was still garbage, and despite the fact that I pointed that out repeatedly you managed (along with derpellosity over here) to still tunnel him to death. So, BH, if you are town, who is scum then? which he notably hasn't done except in like his first post of the game and that quoted post. WBG is actively inhibiting the thread, attempts to scumhunt, and people trying to ask questions, state theories, and generally interact smoothly as town. is some damn fine analysis ( and to Kei it is also one of the reasons why BH is town to me.), austin also mentioned movie mini mafia, which I think was a pretty good educated guess. Add that to the fact that I am still getting lynched as of now and my Kei votes does not seem to get traction, I am switching now. ##unvote: Keirathi
##vote: Wherebugsgo Rofl at the bolded party. That post came 10 hours after you already said you thought he was town. But good lord, could you possibly sheep BH any harder? Of course not, because you're scum who just keeps jumping on the popular bandwagon whenever you possibly can. ##Unvote: BlazingHand
##Vote: ShiaoPi
I agree with pretty much everything in this post and I'm starting to feel good about Keirathi being town as well. What's good about a ShiaoPi lynch is that (given a red flip) it would make both Lazermonkey and Keirathi pretty likely townies. That would severely limit the possibilities of remaining Mafia players. DYH, I think you should heavily reconsider Lazermonkey and vote for ShiaoPi instead. Your vote on Lazermonkey isn't doing anything now and it didn't look you wanted to lynch WBG either.
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On the other hand, if ShiaoPi happened to flip town, it would mean some of my reads were seriously wrong. I think I'll have to reread several filters with the mindset that ShiaoPi would actually be town. I'm not seeing it right now, but it's a possibility after all.
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On December 04 2012 22:38 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 22:34 Xatalos wrote:
On the other hand, if ShiaoPi happened to flip town, it would mean some of my reads were seriously wrong. I think I'll have to reread several filters with the mindset that ShiaoPi would actually be town. I'm not seeing it right now, but it's a possibility after all. Don't worry, he's not going to flip town. I've played with town ShiaoPi and scum ShiaoPi. This ShiaoPi is the latter.
Heh. Well, I really hope so. I've also played with ShiaoPi before and I must say he was a lot more active and decisive back then. He even defended a (Mafia) player to the very end against every other player and was pretty clear on his reads. Now it feels like he's just giving vague reads and jumping on any realistic bandwagon.
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I've been looking at ShiaoPi's filter in LVII. Although it's hard to get the whole picture from just one filter, I don't really agree that ShiaoPi has been playing similarly here compared to that game. Look at this for example:
On September 09 2012 16:33 ShiaoPi wrote:Well I got some internet for a while now (yes, internet issues are still in play, recently moved to the dorms of my university, so I am not guaranteed network access at the moment). Also reading through the thread, looks like I am now on Hapa's hitlist, joy! Show nested quote +On September 09 2012 12:44 Hapahauli wrote:
1) ShiaoPi has a reasonably active town-meta. ShiaoPi has no scum meta.
2) ShiaoPi is hardcore lurking this game, "internet issues" cited, but were not mentioned pre-game (odd, considering severity). His activity is very different from his 6 town games.
He certainly hasn't posted anything that makes me think he's town. Some other newer players have posts that show effort, but ShiaoPi has shown none. As far as I'm concerned, the above makes him scummy. If he'd like to defend himself and convince me otherwise, he should take the opportunity to do so.
Should I hold your hand too, or will that suffice? 1) I know that my play is off from my town games take it or leave it right now when I am saying that I am town (yet again). 2)I still have internet issues, see above also I am in a stupid timezone (HKT) compared to you. I either have to stay up late or wake up early in order to catch the last of the US-timezones discussing, mostly I don't make it, did stay up once and felt trashed afterwards, so no not willing to repeat that. If that is not enough for you to explain my "meta"-switch, can't do more. Onto something else though... I said I'll take another look at maverick and what strikes me as odd is the focus he has on lurkers, while I can agree that this game has a shitton of lurkers (counting myself as well) it is pretty "normal" for a large game to have them around. One should take a look at the (even if few) posts the lurkers have in order to search for scum motivation/anti-town behaviour. Mav does not do it though, for him he has the simple equation of lurker=scum. There is quite the disconnect between this argument and his own behaviour as I would count him into the lurkers as well, so shouldn't he step up his game to fulfill his perception of good town play? Also looking back into d1 there is quite some amount of soft-defending towards Mattchew within his filter, e.g.: + Show Spoiler +On September 04 2012 13:17 Maverick32x wrote:
Hey guys- got a chance to catch up and I have a couple thoughts.
First- Not totally comfortable voting Mattchew at this point.. I understand the potential for lying about the role claim.. and I'm not a big fan of role claiming in general... HOWEVER- I'd like to reiterate BlackMamba's post that said something to the tune of "ITT- Townies arguing with Townies" because I find that people are so quick to blame each other for stupid stuff that we end up wasting the first couple days with literally zero reason for voting someone besides "They drew a picture"....
That being said- I'd like to draw a little bit of attention to the first voter for whom I feel like I can make an actual observation on- Toadesstern.
The reason I want to focus on that is just because of the speed at which he strikes out just makes me wonder why that's beneficial from a town perspective? And I'm just wondering if he just wanted to try to promote chaos right away?? Also- consistently attacking other posters seems to be a trend.... & + Show Spoiler +On September 05 2012 00:41 Maverick32x wrote:
Well, I must of skimmed past the FoS on me from Bill Murray, so I'll weigh in a bit.
The reason I was hesitant to jump on Matt was because 'bad play' doesn't equal Scum play. And our goal is to hunt Scum, not hunt bad players. That being said, lying goes a bit beyond 'bad' and starts to seem more scummy.
@Broodking- I re-read your post like 10 times and I have no idea what point you're trying to make...
He also claims to be really focused on scumhunting instead of "looking good" + Show Spoiler +On September 07 2012 10:14 Maverick32x wrote:
I don't even know what Dwarf Fortress Mafia is?? How is that relevant?
And yes- I acknowledge I defended Matt because I had no reason NOT to. He had just made a post and a couple people started to jump on him about it.
I honestly would not of voted him if Palmer didn't say that NN were not self-aware.
I'm not too concerned with 'looking better' but rather trying to scum hunt and win. but his "cases" until now has been this single post: + Show Spoiler +On September 07 2012 10:11 Maverick32x wrote:
Okay, got through everyone's filters, so lets label some of the lurkers just to make sure we're aware:
Hopeless1der, Shady Sands, ShiaoPi, and honestly I'd like to put Austinmcc in there too just cause his posts are useless.. but meh
Okay, Obviously my read above on Forumite still stands- but I'm going to focus on DoYouHas for this next post.
He randomly decides that Bill Murray must die right away. No idea why this was important for him to post- and to be honest Bill Murray is suspicious in his own ways (not to de-rail, but a lot of one sentence responses, fluctuating 'lists' of scum etc)
So my sense is that this is a way to just accuse a peer early on, knowing that it won't stick.
And of course it doesn't, because he quickly /unvotes that so quickly that it doesn't even make sense why he would do it in the first place.
The majority of DoYouHas's posts involve meta game. Starting right at the start its his 'friend' who wanted him to vote, and people are playing as their 'meta' which he frequently refers to. We're looking at a definite Matt lynch, and he knows it, and even states it... why wouldn't he get behind that vote?
He then jumps to Hopeless1der as his next target. He just appears far too sure of himself that Hopeless is voting scum for a townie- considering his entire case is built around it.
His defense involves his own meta!! This leads me to believe that he is very aware of the 'meta' in the game, and is actively trying to fit whatever he views as 'usual' for him when he is town.
So there you have it!! My top 2 reads currently. I am not impressed at all. Furthermore adding up to his shady behaviour, we have this little exchange between him and me: As soon as I am asking him some questions he feels uncomfortable with, he says this: Show nested quote +On September 08 2012 04:42 Maverick32x wrote:
You haven't posted enough for me to be sure of your alignment.
You're also not reading.... I wanted you to post. Stop derailing this thread by making it personal .
I think lurking is scummy. You were lurking. Therefore your behavior is scummy.
Ignoring my questions (still is btw) alltogether. After we mislynch BKE, it's straight up, back to the lurkers, no mention of DYH or Forumite which were suspicions of him before. I don't know if you can see town motivation behind his play, I certainly don't, mav is scum, so shoot him tonight or lynch him tomorrow. Probably won't have internet again before the deadline passes so yeah, that's it from me.
ShiaoPi is decisive and open about his reads in LVII. He has good arguments and he seems convinced about his cases. Compare that to this game:
On December 04 2012 00:24 ShiaoPi wrote:hai bandwagon much? Anyway, let me first write up what I wanted to yesterday but could not get to before defending myself from bugs. Catching up to the thread I am gonna scratch pretty much all of what I had yesterday. I am going to comment on some of the remaining players now, with a reread of the thread: BH: Fuck what I said, I am leaning town on him now. Zealos: I would like to get rid of him as he is just a useless lurking piece of space at the moment. His saving grace is firstly that there are better lynches today and secondly (and more importantly) he got voted by VE. While VE is scum and therefore his votes are much more likely to end up on townies (see later in the day with DP and DYH) I don't feel like just taking his filter as 100%-foolproof evidence, heck he softdefended me and I am fucking town. Xatalos: This is more or less where it gets interesting. Before the reread I had a scumread on him, this is largely due to the fact that he has an incredibly annoying (to me) way to express his thoughts, convoluted to no end, e.g.: + Show Spoiler +On December 02 2012 22:46 Xatalos wrote:
I can somewhat relate to your reasons for voting DP... Although they're still narrow-minded reasons, they're not necessarily scummy reasons. Combined with my intuition telling me your late roleclaim wasn't any elaborate Mafia tactic (which it could possibly be, but I have problems believing it - Occam's razor points to the simpler explanation), I'm starting to lean slightly town on you. In addition, such heavy tunneling isn't really townish, but it's not an effective Mafia playstyle either. Mafia would rather leave their options open, not limit them willingly.
What's a good point is that Mafia might have a roleblocker. If they roleblock you, we're back to square one and have to decide the truth of your roleclaim with what you've said, not with your power usage. In any case, you should claim your shot RIGHT before the deadline. Let's consider the options for Mafia if they don't have time to change their roleblock action based on your target:
1) They can roleblock you, preventing you from becoming a confirmed Vanilla Townie (after your shot has been used). But if you just shoot me or some other townie (and you're not a very threatening presence to Mafia in any case), it might be beneficial for Mafia to let the shot go through. They'd get rid of one townie and just lose one mislynch candidate.
2) They can skip using a roleblock or roleblock marvellosity instead (in case he didn't fakeclaim). This would make you a confirmed Vanilla Townie but potentially prevent marvellosity's night action and most of all likely kill 2 townies in a single night.
If you claim your shot early, Mafia will have an easy time deciding their best course of action. If you do it at the deadline, Mafia will have to take a risk and decide their possible roleblock usage without information about your target. Although I guess it has to be me after all this tunneling, which kind of makes me hope you're fakeclaiming, but you never know.
Reading the exchange between WBG and BH, I'm starting to lean on WBG being town and BH being Mafia. WBG's reasoning is coherent and townish, but BH looks like he's just dodging issues and ignoring facts while doing what he decided beforehand (pushing the lynch to DP, next up DYH). What's even weirder is the contradiction between his earlier and later playstyle: at first he swinged his vote around for the smallest reasons, but then he wouldn't budge from getting DP lynched no matter what. Where did this confidence suddenly come from, considering his earlier wishy-washiness? And even with his arguments being repeatedly refuted? I'm just getting more and more suspicious of BH the more I think about it. this entire post can be summed up into this: -I think you are town DYH, because of the reasons for tunneling you just shared and the late claim -Please claim your shot just before deadline to avoid too much chance for mafia to interfere, oh and wifom -I am getting a townread on WBG and BH leans scum to me or his last post: + Show Spoiler +On December 03 2012 23:59 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2012 23:18 wherebugsgo wrote:
ye sandro has it correct. A scum who is not going to die or is not under in any pressure to bus is almost certainly not going to bus.
Any of VE's pushes that "seemed" genuine were probably on townies. I guess that's a fair assumption, but not foolproof. For example, I bussed my scumbuddy hard in a previous game although I wasn't in any immediate danger - just to gain towncred and win the game with that. And VE didn't even BUS Zealos, he just throwed a vote at him and easily changed it away from him. I think that's very possibly just some distancing, not necessarily bussing or genuine lynch effort. Even so, I agree that VE's comment on ShiaoPi was much more suspicious than his vote for Zealos. VE seemed pretty reluctant to even talk about ShiaoPi, and he was especially uncomfortable with the thought of lynching ShiaoPi. The obvious explanation is that ShiaoPi is Mafia, although it's only a piece of circumstantial evidence. Still, combined with ShiaoPi's clear background role and lack of effort to achieve anything, he's definitely a good lynch candidate. It just hurts to look at it imo, the information within the post is so little in relation to the lengt Look through Xata's filter, it's full of elaborate stuff without a real conclusion/course of action. This is a clear scumtell in my eyes, no need for that much fluff if you are contributing. There are also a lot of "cases" which he never followed up entirely in a committing way. The problem I have with a potential scum-Xata is that he is making sense. Also he did not jump on the marv bandwagon d1, something I think scum would have loved to do, having a real chance to get a really good player mislynched d1. Conclusion on Xata, null leaning slightly in the red. Just because I mentioned DYH in my post before, he is confirmed town to me, I don't buy shenanigans with scum shooting themselves and stuff. Now on to the good stuff: KeirathiObviously my changed read on BH is important for a red kei. but let's start from looking at ace: -He has been dickish, trolly and unhelpful, not exactly a scumtell but it adds to the entire picture. -What makes me wonder is especially the parts in his filter with "shiao/debears/DYH"-interaction and "shiao/VE/DP"-interaction. I do not remember having thoroughly interacted much with DYH, there were some questions from debears which I answered, also I did not interact with VE/DP in a remarkable kind of way. So I have no clue where he got this from, conclusions he does not read the thread thoroughly and makes shit up as he goes to appear contributing. Moving on to Kei now, While I initially agreed with a lot of his points against BH, I was also in the game from the beginning. Now with a clear reread I do not read BH as scummy anymore, from someone who replaces in I would expect him to have a clear mindset as well and I believe Keirathi to be a good enough player to be able to come to the same conclusion as I did. The entire amount of tunneling onto BH as an "easy" target seems to me like an attempt to just derail the entire thread into bascially the same discussion we had at the end of d1. Also the complete disregard for anything else, why? Cuz scum! ##vote: KeirathiBefore I forget it, honorable mention to Lazermonkey, get out of your lurkhole and do something, you are pretty much up next right after Kei!
Really... "He's tunneling BH. Why? Cuz scum." That's basically what his case is there. He doesn't even sound convinced himself! I get the feeling he's just throwing his vote at someone to appear to be scumhunting. Then there's this post:
On December 04 2012 23:37 ShiaoPi wrote:
So you seriously want to lynch me off a single mention by VE sandroba? What the fuck is wrong with all of you?
I can't help but feel that this is a post by a cornered and panicking Mafia. Granted, it's only a feeling, but the tone of it is so aggressive that it would fit a Mafia being cornered and starting to crack under the pressure. It's nothing decisive, of course, but I tend to give some weight to how I feel about tone differences in posts.
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On December 05 2012 01:06 ShiaoPi wrote:Hey Xata, What made that 180°-turn from this: Show nested quote +On another topic, I like your analysis of Ace/Keirathi. I haven't quite had him as a scumread at any point, but not as a townread either. Ace's weird "X/Y/Z interaction" posts and Keirathi's pure focus on BH aren't looking good. It's hard to judge a replacement player, but nothing in either of their filters screams "town!", and that's suspicious in itself. to Show nested quote +Really... "He's tunneling BH. Why? Cuz scum." That's basically what his case is there. He doesn't even sound convinced himself! I get the feeling he's just throwing his vote at someone to appear to be scumhunting. I can't even comprehend this at all. also your last thing about emotions and stuff is utter trash, I am reacting the way I am since you guys are fucking retarded to lynch me over bugs.....
Earlier I was glad that you were producing content with that post, and I was also glad that you brought Ace/Keirathi into my (and others') attention. But after looking at your posts/cases in the earlier game (when you were town) and rereading your reasons for voting Keirathi, it just falls short. Basically the only reason is Keirathi's tunneling (which he didn't continue for all that long after all) and Ace's weird posts during Day 1. It's really not enough to convince me you honestly thought he was Mafia at that moment. We'll see the truth of that with your flip though. I don't think there's another choice for today but you, especially with WBG being the runner-up in votes now.
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There's one player I'm having enormous difficulties trying to read: MrZentor. It seems like everyone has a townread on him, but I can't really figure him out. In my earlier (pretty old though) game with him, his posts were always long and somewhat fluffy like this:
On March 22 2012 05:32 MrZentor wrote:Hello people of Mafia! It is I, MrZentor! Anyways, I thought this started a day after it did, so I am a little late to the party.  Let me tell everybody my opinion, so you can get a good read on me! First we have Acrofales overreacting to a vote that didn't have a basis. Show nested quote +On March 21 2012 22:54 Acrofales wrote:
Okay seriously WTF. I know I'm new to this game, but voting me for that reason alone makes no sense. In fact, it seems quite a scum move to cast suspicion on people right at the start of the game.
Or am I going overboard and it's just a way of getting people to post at the start of the game? Either way, I'm watching you and risk.nuke. Voting off the bat seems fishy. He then votes for Mattchew. Show nested quote +On March 22 2012 00:04 Acrofales wrote:
Hodor's terribly talkative all of a sudden.
Luckily I have better sources than that. The Ghost of High Heart told me that you are scum.
##vote: Mattchew Lyter defends Acrofales. Show nested quote +On March 22 2012 02:15 Lyter wrote:
I'd say ignore wbg at least for now, we have absolutely no idea what his motives/intentions could be, when more of a picture is formed then we should come back to it by all means.
I'm not sure on Acrofales, yea he could be flipping a shit cos he got called out so early, but his actions are hardly unlikely for a new guy anyway. Then Mattchew, bad spelling in hand, attacks Lyter for defending Acrofales Show nested quote +On March 22 2012 02:21 Mattchew wrote:On March 22 2012 02:15 Lyter wrote:
I'd say ignore wbg at least for now, we have absolutely no idea what his motives/intentions could be, when more of a picture is formed then we should come back to it by all means.
I'm not sure on Acrofales, yea he could be flipping a shit cos he got called out so early, but his actions are hardly unlikely for a new guy anyway. oh so your his scum teammate? I really don't like that Mattchew attacks Lyter for defending Acrofales, who I think at this point is innocent. It also seems silly that Mattchew is 100% positive that Acrofales is innocent over one nooby overreaction. If you look at Mattchew's filter, you will see he only said something slightly helpful when he was asked to; everything else is just him attacking other people without any real reason. For now, I think he is most likely to be scum.
But now, he's just posting one-liners and not really doing much of anything. What's up with him, seriously? Could someone tell me where they're getting this strong town read from?
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After carefully reading through MrZentor's filter, I'm left with more questions than answers. The biggest thing is this:
On December 04 2012 09:07 MrZentor wrote:
I have narrowed the mafia down to five people.
I can't decide which of those I want to kill.
But ShiaoPi is on the list and WBG wants to kills him, so why not?
Here it looks like MrZentor has a town read on WBG - he's even willing to follow WBG's lead to lynch ShiaoPi.
On December 04 2012 11:39 MrZentor wrote:WBG is a vet; he knows what kind of posting is beneficial for town and what is detrimental. Making these terrible posts is a conscious decision. There is no reason for him, a vet, to post like that as town. So, for actively hurting the town environment while fully aware of his actions, I will ##Vote: WBG.Also, WBG, I challenge you. I challenge you to either refute each of BH's points in his case or to admit to purposefully being detrimental to town. I challenge you to not say something useless like Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 08:19 wherebugsgo wrote:
cool, I was right. You're biased and bad. Let's move on.
Two hours later, he's suddenly Mafia??? What the heck???
MrZentor seems to also have a very strong townread on BH. I pretty much agree with his arguments, although I wouldn't give them such heavy weight as MrZentor does (especially the weird case against MrZentor isn't that big of a towntell IMO).
I'm puzzled more than anything by MrZentor, but I want to hear an explanation for that voteswitch from ShiaoPi to WBG right now. I also want to hear some more reasoning for his actions so far in the game and what this mysterious "list of five suspects" is.
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On December 05 2012 04:45 debears wrote:
Xatalos what do you have to say about the stuff posted by me, BH, and austin on WBG?
All I've seen you mention is ShiaoPi and WBG's "how many times VE mentioned ppl" post. You have failed to address any of the main content addressed at WBG, yet you are more than happy to jump on ShiaoPi and Zentor
I suppose MrZentor can wait, since it's close to deadline and he isn't even really related to the lynch at hand.
By the way, I just had a strange thought. What if the remaining scum were ShiaoPi and austinmcc? I've had austinmcc as a townread for so long, but he's been pretty unimpactful during Day 2 - and recently he's been soft defending ShiaoPi, and simultaneously boarding the opposing bandwagon (WBG). Them being a team would make lots of sense (at least if it wasn't for my original townread on austinmcc).
Now, back to WBG. I sometimes start doubting him when reading your (debears etc.) arguments against him, but I have the terrible feeling that I would regret heavily voting for him instead of ShiaoPi. Yeah, he hasn't been as helpful as he could/should have, but the same applies to marvellosity - and he was town of course. The points against WBG aren't really scumtells - they're nulltells that could mean either town or Mafia. They would also mostly apply to marvellosity. There are always two people in a flamefest, and they were both equally guilty for it IMO. Both were caught up in a senseless waste of time, resorting to petty insults and otherwise ignorant posts. I don't think this is condemning for either of them though. In fact, looking at where it has gotten WBG (half the players wanting to lynch him) I doubt he would have entered such a useless interaction with marvellosity in the first place as Mafia. It just makes no sense. Okay, there's the theory that scum WBG wanted to "neutralize" marvellosity's contributions before he could be shot. Is something bizarre like that really worth reducing your own credibility and raising yourself to the spotlight (and to the lynch candidates)? It's far too risky for far too little gain. Occam's razor again points to the simplest explanation: it was just two townies having a stupid argument where neither of them was going to benefit from it in any concrete way. There's always the chance that I'm wrong, but I'm pretty confident that I'm making the right choice right now.
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EPT
