Chrono Trigger Mafia - Page 297

On November 30 2012 20:34 goodkarma wrote:
Listed below is a more detailed list post. Included are all my reads, including my top scum suspects.:

Clarity, Oatsmaster, Dienosore, Keirathi, Syllogism: “Confirmed town…”
TheChronicler: believable claim, a sincerity that leads me to believe he's town...
Toad – Scum, obviously.

Z-Boson – Lurky, about to be replaced. From what I’ve seen of his game, he plays much more wishy-washy as scum and tries moreso to “blend in” than give definitive reads. Then again, this was in (I think?) his first newbie game (NMM XXIV). Whatever the case, I know that his play has evolved significantly since then, and that if he was scum his play would be possibly craftier. But I do like his closing list post. I would lean towards a (slight) town read on him at this present point in the game. We will know more after his replacement (hopefully) does a better job of being active. + Show Spoiler +

Kitaman – For being a strong town player, he doesn’t seem to be dedicating much effort into playing this game. Honestly, does anyone NOT think he’s 3rd party yet? His most recent post about Acro though does raise my eyebrows quite high though… Why does he take such a sudden interest in Acro??? Is it because he has to get him lynched as a 3rd party objective? Heavy speculation I know, but the thought crossed my mind… I mean it’s not as though Kita’s done much of anything all game to help us… Just as he’s pushing for Acro to full claim, I’d propose that it’s important for him to full claim, for the same reasons he listed for Acro.

CaveJohnson – Ridiculously anti-town, lies constantly about his abilities, but hard to read because of the consistency with which he does it… That pretty much sums up his play… That he claimed to damage Toad with some super-powerful OP ability doesn’t mean he’s town… I’d say if Acro were to claim his HP, maybe there could be some means of determining if his claim were even plausible after Toad’s flip. But really even that is speculative, as Acro isn’t someone who we know we can trust presently… As it stands, there’s really not much we can do with him. He’s not a strong lynch prospect, but I’m still not against him being a decent vigi prospect. Even then, though, I don’t feel he’s the best priority right now. This is different than my stance before. Details below:

While making this list post, I’ve thought of it this way: I am of the belief that CaveJohnson would be just as likely to be playing this way as scum or town. So how I look at it it’s a (assuming 5-member scumteam) 5/25 (20%) chance he’s scum from the outset. It could be the case but it’s inherently unlikely… As such, there are better vigi targets.

Hapa – I honestly don’t know what to make of this healing situation. Firstly, I don’t see how town or scum would be likely to damage Hapa. Secondly, I don’t see what Hapa would have to gain by lying about either being damaged or healed… And this I believe to be the major point: even if he were scum, why would he have any reason whatsoever to lie about being damaged or healed? Pity points, I guess??? I see zero motive for doing so, and as such I believe Hapa’s damage and (lack of) healing claims. The circumstances for them may be unclear, but in the absence of motive there’s really no reason I can see to not believe Hapa.

Regarding Hapa’s play in general: It’s undeniably “off” from the town Hapa I remember that tunnel drills scum to death. But then again, I see clearly pro-town qualities to his play. He is providing scum reads and doing + Show Spoiler + decent scumhunting. I was disappointed to see how little people considered his case on phagga, as I believe it does a decent job showing how phagga should be a top scum suspect, and a person who should be further investigated. It helps too that he “sticks his neck out” on persons such as myself, who definitely is on several people’s vigi-kill/lynch wish list right now… This is something scum don’t typically do.

I’m not 100% familiar with his scum play but from what I’ve seen from a couple of games where he’s played scum (Mario mini, liquid city), he takes on a more informal tone in his posts and is a bit more trolly. He has a more serious tone this game, and while I would not consider this alone a reason to call him town, it is something else worth considering. I would love to see a game where he played scum well, as I find it hard to believe he got a “well-respected scum game” from these two games… All in all, I have a town read on him.

Iamperfection – Players such as him are incredibly hard for me to read… In fact the only thing I can really say from what I’ve tried to gather from his meta is that he is super-spammy as town (in Mario mini) and a less spammy as scum (NMM XIX, GSL mini don’t remember the number). As it stands, I’m trying to sift through a sea of one-liners to find posts of substance. I clearly recall in the early game, he had a really ridiculous “You know I’m town, right?” remark that Acro hammered him for. While I really didn’t feel it was productive, given how he plays I couldn’t call that alignment indicative. As it stands, he does seem to be showing what I consider to be genuine interest in the game (with intermittent non-sequitor remarks…), asking relevant questions to try to peg scum. I would like to see more “case” posting from him, but I’m not holding my breath… Leaning town.

Prox – There’s a certain zeal with which he pushed his cases when we first played together as town in NMM XXII. Not saying that our play hasn’t evolved since then, but I do find it incredibly hard to believe that, however bad, as scum he could be bothered to write up a 43-page case against someone (me). I guess it could be he really really hates me … But I’d assume it’s more plausible that he’s passionate about finding scum this game. And that’s not the kind of passion you typically find from scum. I’ve taken a chance to look at his scum game in NMM XIX, and it’s also notable that he is far lurkier that game. 18 pages’ activity, however, in his filter presently this game, and there’s definitely some substantial scumhunting in there. I’d say that’s at least some indication that he cares. Add to that that he has a plausible roleclaim that I’m inclined to believe. I have a town read on him.

Hopeless – At this point I’m having a bit of writer’s block mulling through everything… But I can say this: Hopeless tends to play a far lurkier game as scum. Also the effort he puts into defending himself and the transparency with which he’s explained his scummy actions (such as lack of scumhunting) I find to be town characteristics. I have a slight town read on him. Although if he is to convince others he isn’t scum, it would be a good idea for him to pick up on the scumhunting…

risk.nuke – This seems to be a favorite topic of a few people here for a potential lynch. He definitely hasn’t been very useful for town, and his scumhunting is rather lacking, but I’m not convinced that makes him scum. A large part of my town read on him is his roleclaim in mason QT. He was incredibly indignant about how reserved I was with communicating with him, and as he came to understand it was uncertain his claim implied he was town I felt he was genuine in how he came across.

Another reason I believe risk is that I have never seen a setup where masons are scum aligned. And honestly, from a logistical standpoint it would make little sense as it’s a power that really wouldn’t help scum much at all. And from this perspective, I find it unlikely that he is lying. I am rather thankful that he was given the mason role, as I will admit that from his filter it would be very easy to mislynch him.

And lastly, I am unsure as to the full line of reasoning for why he chose me the first cycle. I will, however, say that I find it believable that as town you would bring in the person you vote for party leader, as that’s clearly one of your town reads. He definitely could have used his role differently (as a way to try to confirm and vigi kill scum reads), but he didn’t. Traditionally, a mason wouldn’t have a vigi kill power, and I could understand how he would not think to use his role in what is (arguably) the stronger way of confirming and killing scum… I have a town read on risk.

Djo – I really should have given his scum game more credit. I didn’t realize until looking at Mario Mini that he had a formidable scum game. However, I still have a town read on him. He had been eager every step of the way to get himself established as town. Even now, when it would be suicidal as scum to be elected to a party, he’s excited for the opportunity. I simply don’t see scum doing that, as being the weak link that fails the party at this point in the game means certain detection and death.

Adam – I really don’t like the way he’s played this game. And the only scum game I could find he lurked until he got modkilled, which really doesn’t tell me much of anything… He shows an active interest in the game, asking reasonable questions, but his only “case” seems to be on Z-Boson who he seems bent on tunneling. I remember a person or two commenting on how it was inaccurate he was spending most his time tunneling Z-Boson as it was only something like two posts. But looking at his sparse filter, they are the two-three posts of the most substance. He made one or two comments about Sandroba for his lynch, but beyond that, all he’s given us is Z-Boson is a prime scum candidate and no one else really is… Tunneling is something both scum and town do. However, Z-Boson is an easy target that has had lurker issues similar to Adam. Imho, it’s a bit scummy to only focus on Z-Boson, even after he’s said he’s getting replaced… All that being said, I have a null read on Adam. Outside of Z-Boson, he has generally acted pro-town and nothing else appears to be scummy.

Acro – Has generally acted pro-town, and has claimed 3rd party. Kita, however, has brought up the good point that we have no idea of Acro’s win condition or if he can be trusted. Unlike Kita, the most peculiar thing I’ve found about Acro is how actively invested he seems to be as 3rd party. This doesn’t make sense to me, unless if he wins with town. And if he really is 3rd party, he should have a different win condition of some kind… It doesn’t quite add up for me. He genuinely seems to be trying, and I can’t quite figure out why. He needs to roleclaim if town is to trust that he is an asset and not a liability going further into this game. I also have not ruled out the possibility that the reason he is so proactive after claiming 3rd party is that he actually is scum. Nothing that I can presently find tips me towards distrusting he’s third party, but it’s in the back of my mind…

My Scum Reads:
Sorry that this section isn’t longer and more detailed. I may elaborate more at a later point in time if people demand a “definitive case.” What makes them top suspects is that almost everyone else’s alignment I have deduced as discussed above. Combined with the scummy behavior they exhibit, I believe they have a very strong chance of flipping red.

1) phagga – I like Hapa’s case on him. Phagga has indeed been “playing it safe, and has not been aggressive with pursuing his reads. It’s the kind of laziness and indifference I’d expect of scum. His defense to Hapa’s case was short and sweet and unconvincing too imho. I’m not going to go into much more detail right now other than to say this: Hapa’s case has merit. Maybe you guys should actually take some time to pay attention to it… Perhaps he hasn’t been “red checked” like Toad, and he hasn’t outright said he’s scum, but his play is consistent with what I’d expect from scum. By process of elimination, he is a top scum suspect that needs to be further investigated for next lynch.

2) strongandbig – I jumped the gun on this case before. I looked into his filter and I noticed that he had a pronounced difference in his post count between this game and his town meta. Then I saw that he had excuses for his absences, and that he was genuinely busy. He has definitely “blended in,” taking no stances I would consider brave or new. And while he has excuses, he still has been pretty lurky, and this does match his scum meta. Also, two things I consider possible scumslips:

“phagga is probably town, but I'm not confident enough to agree with putting him on a party yet.”
This remark has been referenced before, but this is something I don’t see a townie motivation for saying. There’s a pronounced difference between “probably town” and “maybe town.” You vote in your strong town reads, so this doesn’t quite add up to me… It’s at the very least an odd statement if phagga were to be lynched and flip town, but I would argue it would be a damning statement if phagga were to be lynched and flip scum.

Another thing that was odd to me was that he was pissed about the 100 points of damage he took. How could you be mad about this when it’s pretty clear that you’re a decent lurker shot? Not clearly scum motivated by any means, but still it felt a little odd to me since only scum needs to worry about surviving as long as possible.

3) VE – Has pretty much only lurked until recently. Has recently pushed a case on me. Scolds Prox for making a case on why I was scummy rather than about my motivations then does the same with his own. He has done absolutely nothing to demonstrate that he is town, and further, pointing out scummy actions rather than scum motivated ones on town players is a commonplace play for scum. I have ruled out almost everyone else from this list as either town or third party. That only leaves lurkers for this third spot… VE fits the bill of a scummy lurker, and should be considered for lynch after phagga and strong. Some might say something like, “But he’s only been active a short time give him time…” And I’m not opposed to that. He will have some time to attempt to prove he’s town as phagga and strong are first on the chopping block. By far my weakest scum read, but a scum read nonetheless.

3, alternate 1) CaveJohnson as I described before is a very hard one to read since he is so consistently anti-town. However, he belongs on this list as he very well could be scum for reasons already described.

3, alternate 2) Adam could be scum. He’s a null read lurker for me atm...