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On November 24 2012 21:55 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On November 24 2012 21:50 Acrofales wrote:On November 24 2012 21:44 marvellosity wrote:On November 24 2012 21:39 Acrofales wrote:On November 24 2012 20:57 marvellosity wrote:On November 24 2012 20:38 sandroba wrote:On November 24 2012 20:34 Acrofales wrote:
@Sandroba: a lot of the case against you is inspired by the idea that scum must have had someone in the running for party leader yesterday. Do you agree with this? And if it's not you, then who was it? I answered that already: kita. He got overshadowed by his lack of activity and the fact that everyone was supporting me or syllo right off the bat. I've not seen any reasoning from you on why kita (or anyone else for that matter). What gives? You're not pushing anyone. Probably you only have to convince syllo, but this influential punter wants to know why you're not pushing your reads either? Is not pushing reads a scumtell? Especially if so blatantly obvious about it? if i ask myself what town sand and scum sand would be doing in this situation, yeah, it's a scumtell. I understand far less why town sandroba isn't pushing anyone. Are you pushing anyone? You're pressuring people, but I don't get the opinion that you have made up your mind on anybody you think is scum. You are not pushing your reads much either. Is that a scumtell for you? How about Kita? Toad? Why single Sandroba out of the veterans who are not currently pushing their scum reads? Don't be dense, I've been pursuing kita for some time now even if I haven't made a formal case/vote.
Yeah. You've been pressuring him. I have not gotten the feeling ever that you have made up your mind yet. That's okay, I haven't made up my mind yet either. But calling Sandroba out for not having made up his mind and pushing his read is hypocritical.
I do find his lack of thread presence disconcerting. In all games I have played with him, his thread presence (or PM presence in SSM) has been commanding. However, RL issues are a good reason for lack of thread presence.
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On November 24 2012 22:09 Djodref wrote:Show nested quote +On November 24 2012 22:02 Acrofales wrote:On November 24 2012 21:54 marvellosity wrote:On November 24 2012 21:52 syllogism wrote:
Stop distorting the case against him Acro. I seem to be trying to read sandro as if I'm skyping with him? That's completely nonsensical.
You don't feel sandro is not playing any different? How about the fact he has done or said nothing useful at all whole game long. Not a single read; just throwing a name out there with no reasoning is not a read. Failure to construct reads is fairly in line with what? Is the sandro you know completely useless? The little time he has devoted to the game has centered around him defending himself rather than doing something actually useful.
Despite the amount of seeming effort you are putting into the game, your defense of Sandro is starting to feel quite suspicious. what do you make of sand's point about his party selection? That is the one point I think is weak, lol. If scum is able to take 3 townies along and still fail the mission, then his party selection is neither here nor there. The more I think about it, the harder it seems for a scum party leader to play the party leader role correctly. If Sandro is scum and takes 3 incredibly townie people along, yet fails the mission, he is scum through a process of elimination. If Sandro is scum and takes a shady character along, he is scum for bringing his scumbuddy along, because town Sandro should know better. Either way, having someone known for his accurate reads lead a failed party is a recipe for disaster for scum (assuming town has ways of killing scum). @AcroI think we are going to get ways of killing scum after successful event. Like the fact that today is a "lynch event day" is a reward for us to have succeed in the last event. I would have expected a different event (mafia favored event) if we had failed. But that's just speculation. I think that one scum on the party doesn't automatically cause the failure of the event. There are hidden factors after all. Frog (aka Dieno) being on the event could have allowed one mafia player to come along imo.
I agree with your first point. It is quite likely that if the event had failed, we would not have gotten the lynch day. However, I see no reason why scum would know how this game works any more than we did. I also assume that town has a fair amount of KP to allow for some town-controlled flips.
I therefore think my logic makes a lot of sense. The second part is speculation. Plausible speculation (I came up with it after all), but still speculation. We have no clue how the hidden influence works, and the game HAS to be balanced somehow to allow scum to win events. Assuming a 3-1 ratio fails an event seems okay for now. Especially as scum presumably also does not know how the influence works and thus they cannot gamble on Sandro bringing along Frog (pretty much confirmed town imho) and gambling that the event succeeds due to his high influence factor, because they simply don't know.
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On November 24 2012 22:14 Oatsmaster wrote:
There is only a certain amount of time until IRL issues just dont cut it.
The difference is that Sandro could very well be lynched while marv basically cant be lynched this cycle.
Marv can do his pushing and prodding a lot more subtly while Sandro has to get himself out of a lynch
Agreed. For some of you that point has been reached. I am seeing some logical inconsistencies with him being scum. They tell me to give him more time and look for people I am more convinced are scum. If, of course, he doesn't shape up, then we can kill him later.
My having that read on him, makes me naturally suspicious of how this wagon is forming in the first place. It is one giant sheep. The only two people who have tried to give their own justification are Clarity, whose case is pathetic, and Adam. The rest are riddled with inconsistencies and lack of reasoning:
Risk.nuke: I know he's been called out for it already, but his explanation is terrible.
On November 23 2012 19:32 risk.nuke wrote:Good job syllogism! Show nested quote +On November 23 2012 12:11 Oatsmaster wrote:
I think we should wait for Syllo to post before jumping to conclusions Here is something I love, an independent thinking man. Moving on, I'm really wondering where sandroba have gone. I'm leaning I want to lynch him but I'm going to at least park my vote on him untill he comes back. ##Vote: sandroba
Later explained: pressure vote. It has not been reevaluated and I have no clue why risk thinks Sandro is scum.
Oatsmaster: while I have no reason to question his alignment yet (having been included in a successful party), his vote comes down to a combination of "one of Sandro/Syllo must be scum" (I don't believe that is true at all) and "beeehhhhhhh". Here is his vote post:
On November 23 2012 09:03 Oatsmaster wrote:
Yeah Sand is looking extremely suspicious at this point..
Vote: Sandro
/sheeple.
GK: 180 degrees flip from Sandro is town to Sandro is scum the second he read Syllo's post. 100% suspicious vote from someone I have my concerns about in any case.
SnB: parked vote, went on holiday. Not going to bother with this right now, because regardless of where he had voted this would feel like a cop-out.
Clarity to me, at the moment, feels more like town making a bad case than scum making up a bullshit case to jump on the syllo sheep. Adam I am not so sure about, although I feel his case has some merit, it is 100% meta from a game I didn't play in. Meta interpretation where only one game is used as comparison is very easy to make or fake.
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On November 24 2012 22:26 syllogism wrote:
There is no reason to assume mafia doesn't know more about how many people they need to cause an event to fail. The main purpose why mechanics are hidden is so that we don't confirm 4 townies any time a mission succeeds.
Also reading sandro's filter it doesn't even look like he announced what his final team would be. At one point he said oats, kush and dienosore, but if he is mafia he probably knew that kush was going to die. In addition, when he named that team, I don't think he thought he was going to win. Moreover, he was locked down to dienosore+oats very early on, before dienosore claimed.
If I understand that correctly, then you are making the assumption that scum could use the fact that Frog is in the party reliably to get "confirmed" status by allowing the event to succeed. That seems like info scum could not possibly have.
As for the second part of your post: what is your point? Sandro would pull a quick party switch and take someone incredibly scummy along? I think everybody who read Kush's post properly assumed he would die, what does being mafia have to do with it? I am confused why you are harping on the party composition.
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Okay, just realized that scum could have a godfather mechanic, allowing them to get "confirmed" through successful events (maybe even voluntarily able to switch it on or off). That could allow a scum Sandro to run for party leader, get "confirmed" and manipulate town into sheeping him into multiple failures.
However, I don't think I have any reason to believe that this is what he tried to achieve.
Sandro: why am I the one doing your dirty work?
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Okay. I have been going over GK's filter for quite a bit now and I am really drawing a null read on him. His D1 play seems quite fine. He is not doing anything particularly out of the ordinary. He is not really sticking his neck out (the campaign was not exactly risky) and his explanations of the behaviour I did not understand seem adequate.
However, his D2 behaviour is really bugging me. He was adamant about townhunting D1, yet did not really do much of it. His reason for not wanting to scumhunt is that there was no lynch. D2 has a lynch, yet the sum total of his "scumhunting" is parking his vote on Sandro in a full acknowledgement of sheeping Syllo:
On November 23 2012 18:47 goodkarma wrote:
I am entirely opposed to troll(CaveJohnson) hunting at present. I am not as confident as some seem to be that, based off his current anti-town dialogue, he has demonstrated he in fact is mafia.
On the other hand, if Sandroba's meta (as stated by others here) is to be believed, he is a clear choice as a lynching candidate for today. He has gone into hardcore lurker mode, which normally is something I wouldn't consider a tell. However, as a player of his reputation that plays so well as town to disappear as he has, I deem voting to lynch him appropriate. I would like to hear what he has to say to explain his current complete lack of caring since very early this game. And until he does:
##Vote: Sandroba
I am just having a really hard time deciding if this is lazy town or content scum :S
The meta-analysis was extensive, but ultimately unproductive. When I first read through GK's filter I thought I saw a very cautious, constructed use of language. However, upon reading him in NMMXXIV I get the same feeling there: it is just his way of speaking. His playstyle there is not the same as here. He seems far more involved. However, his playstyle is also not like in LVII, where he seemed completely uninclined to want to figure anything out, whereas on D1 I at least got the feeling he was interested in the game.
As for Dieno's case:
[spoiler]
On November 24 2012 05:42 Dienosore wrote:Ok here are the results of my investigation on GF. I believe him to be a leading candidate for the gallows: Mistake No. 1 + Show Spoiler +On November 21 2012 15:26 goodkarma wrote:
Perhaps our host could explain?:
Are chosen party members kill-immune?
If not, what happens if scum kill a party member? On November 21 2012 16:35 goodkarma wrote:
I've touched on this a few times. Hopefully this is the last time clarification is needed. This game isn't about scumhunting. Rather, it revolves around townhunting.
On November 21 2012 17:16 goodkarma wrote:
The game structure inherantly requires us to produce targets for the mafia, and we'll just need to accept that...
I should reword what I said, then, as follows.:
Until such a time where lynching becomes an available option, we should be prioritizing townhunting over scumhunting as we choose our party leader and members. These all happened early and seem to come from a scumbag's perspective. While one post wouldn't necessarily indicate mafia, I became suspicious when they began to stack up quickly
Mistake No. 2
+ Show Spoiler +On November 21 2012 17:50 goodkarma wrote:Nice to play with you again Toadesstern  . There were a few things you mentioned I would like to briefly touch up on and then I'm really going to bed... Show nested quote +On November 21 2012 17:09 Toadesstern wrote:
This Keirathi guy is mafia.
Not because of what he's saying but because of what he's failing to provide: Reasoning as to why he'd post what he did so far. What you're saying here seems perfectly reasonable to me. However, I still feel as if blah blah blah... Here he completely glosses over Toad's accusation of Keirathi, indirectly saying to me that he supported the idea of a scum Keirathi. Well, it turned out Keirathi was in the group when we succeeded, so...? Mistake No. 3: + Show Spoiler +On November 22 2012 15:10 goodkarma wrote:
Okay. To the best of my ability I have selected a team.
1) Oats: This is a guy who has played unafraid of what others think of him, making a mediocre (at best) case against clarity and chiming in every chance he gets. He clearly is excited to scumhunt, which is what I believe to be the only reason he placed a vote on toad. I visualize a scum in this setup taking more time discussing who's town, which is definitely the "safer" route.
2) Djo: I can't say that I have a very strong read on him, but I'm leaning towards town. He has proposed his own ideas for how to run an election. A scum could be just as forthcoming, however. Beyond that, I have to go off of his reads: he doesn't trust acro and prox, and thinks oats is town. I am in general agreement there. Definitely my weakest read.
3) Sandroba: However much I feel he's playing lazy (he is), I keep coming back to his filter. I do currently believe that he is town. Everything he has done to date has been to provide clarity and insight into reads others have had and the general mechanics of this specific game. He could do this as scum, but I am inclined to believe he could have been a little less helpful and gotten away with it as scum as well. I look forward to seeing his proposed party as this will provide the information I need to help solidify my understanding of his thought process and determine if he truly belongs on this platform. But as it currently stands, I believe him to be town, and am including him on my platform.
A brief note on Dieno: He is playing so badly that many would consider him likely town, as newbie scum tend to play far more cautiously. However, the persistence and singlemindedness with which he's been pushing his campaign (even after repeatedly being warned) and shitting up the thread leaves enough doubt in my head to exclude him. As a newbie town trying to improve he would have changed his gameplan long ago, as a troll he would be more, well, trolly, and as a newbie who doesn't give a shit he would have given up. How he's been playing is just plain sad, to the point where I wonder if what he's been doing is deliberately anti-town as a scum. He most definitely could be town, but I would rather not take such a risk on such an unknown.
So he picked Oats for the obvious towny to gain people's trust, Djo who has always been suspicious to me, and Sandro who has recently come under heavy fire as a scumbag. Not very solid picks IMO. Also, why attack me at the end of it? He doesn't directly call me scum, but it seems as if he is trying to plant some seeds of doubt at least. He ends up switching his party no much later to Djo/Phagga/Dien. Why so flip floppy, I ask? He later revealed that I made the cut solely because of my roleclaim. Mistake No. 4 + Show Spoiler +On November 24 2012 01:19 goodkarma wrote:Show nested quote +On November 24 2012 01:08 Clarity_nl wrote:
GK how do you feel about Hapa's townread on you? I am not in the least bit surprised that he has made one. But he has come to the correct conclusion, for the right reasons. I do regret that the last few times I've played with him I never took the time to congratulate him, so I'll do so now. He played NMM XXIII spectacularly, and it has been a pleasure to play with him since then. <3 Happa He seems overly relieved to finally have someone call him town. Even threw in a cute little heart there too. My gut says he started off very scummy, then toned it down a bit after he decided to drop his campaign and try to blend in. He is definitely top 3 on my Mafiadar. My next target: Sandroba
1. I agree that I don't like his focus on townhunting, but lets be honest here: what use does mafia have to townhunt, except that they can probably hide it more easily? They already know who is town. Null tell.
2. Being wrong is not a scumtell.
3. Party picks are indeed one of the mysteries, but I don't see his party as scum motivated. More as if he is not very good at getting his motivation and town reads straight. I still have more problems with Phagga than anybody else he picked, though. I don't get how he suddenly picked Phagga out of the blue.
4. Null.
I am actually of the reverse opinion: he started out okay and got scummier over time.
The reason I asked for Dieno's reads was because I stumbled over GK's use of language. Dieno apparently didn't, which was what surprised me a bit in his case. However, the meta explains his language quite a bit.
One last thing:
On November 24 2012 13:34 goodkarma wrote:
I can understand the excuses that Sandroba has provided, but I find the complete lack of followup on who he would consider a prime scum suspect to be disturbing. It's as though he is holding back, maybe... because he's scum, and as scum making up even a half-baked scumread is hard for him. I would really like to see him take some initiative and actually help town out. He continues to fail to deliver in this department, which would leave me to believe that his complete apathy and lack of involvement in this game is indeed scum-driven.
I will keep my vote on Sandroba for the time being. Syllo has all but proven himself to be town at this point, and I will change my vote from Sandroba only if he somehow believes he isn't scum after his latest post.
The bolded statement feels INCREDIBLY forced. As if he is intentionally playing down Sandro's skill at playing scum to make it fit in with his case. Given that everybody and their brother is looking at Sandro to push his reads, don't you think a scum Sandro would have done so by now?
[/QUOTE]
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Blame Dieno for the screwed up tags. Here it is fixed:
Okay. I have been going over GK's filter for quite a bit now and I am really drawing a null read on him. His D1 play seems quite fine. He is not doing anything particularly out of the ordinary. He is not really sticking his neck out (the campaign was not exactly risky) and his explanations of the behaviour I did not understand seem adequate.
However, his D2 behaviour is really bugging me. He was adamant about townhunting D1, yet did not really do much of it. His reason for not wanting to scumhunt is that there was no lynch. D2 has a lynch, yet the sum total of his "scumhunting" is parking his vote on Sandro in a full acknowledgement of sheeping Syllo:
On November 23 2012 18:47 goodkarma wrote:
I am entirely opposed to troll(CaveJohnson) hunting at present. I am not as confident as some seem to be that, based off his current anti-town dialogue, he has demonstrated he in fact is mafia.
On the other hand, if Sandroba's meta (as stated by others here) is to be believed, he is a clear choice as a lynching candidate for today. He has gone into hardcore lurker mode, which normally is something I wouldn't consider a tell. However, as a player of his reputation that plays so well as town to disappear as he has, I deem voting to lynch him appropriate. I would like to hear what he has to say to explain his current complete lack of caring since very early this game. And until he does:
##Vote: Sandroba
I am just having a really hard time deciding if this is lazy town or content scum :S
The meta-analysis was extensive, but ultimately unproductive. When I first read through GK's filter I thought I saw a very cautious, constructed use of language. However, upon reading him in NMMXXIV I get the same feeling there: it is just his way of speaking. His playstyle there is not the same as here. He seems far more involved. However, his playstyle is also not like in LVII, where he seemed completely uninclined to want to figure anything out, whereas on D1 I at least got the feeling he was interested in the game.
As for Dieno's case:
+ Show Spoiler +On November 24 2012 05:42 Dienosore wrote:Ok here are the results of my investigation on GF. I believe him to be a leading candidate for the gallows: Mistake No. 1 + Show Spoiler +On November 21 2012 15:26 goodkarma wrote:
Perhaps our host could explain?:
Are chosen party members kill-immune?
If not, what happens if scum kill a party member? On November 21 2012 16:35 goodkarma wrote:
I've touched on this a few times. Hopefully this is the last time clarification is needed. This game isn't about scumhunting. Rather, it revolves around townhunting.
On November 21 2012 17:16 goodkarma wrote:
The game structure inherantly requires us to produce targets for the mafia, and we'll just need to accept that...
I should reword what I said, then, as follows.:
Until such a time where lynching becomes an available option, we should be prioritizing townhunting over scumhunting as we choose our party leader and members. These all happened early and seem to come from a scumbag's perspective. While one post wouldn't necessarily indicate mafia, I became suspicious when they began to stack up quickly Mistake No. 2 + Show Spoiler +On November 21 2012 17:50 goodkarma wrote:Nice to play with you again Toadesstern . There were a few things you mentioned I would like to briefly touch up on and then I'm really going to bed... Show nested quote +On November 21 2012 17:09 Toadesstern wrote:
This Keirathi guy is mafia.
Not because of what he's saying but because of what he's failing to provide: Reasoning as to why he'd post what he did so far. What you're saying here seems perfectly reasonable to me. However, I still feel as if blah blah blah... Here he completely glosses over Toad's accusation of Keirathi, indirectly saying to me that he supported the idea of a scum Keirathi. Well, it turned out Keirathi was in the group when we succeeded, so...? Mistake No. 3: + Show Spoiler +On November 22 2012 15:10 goodkarma wrote:
Okay. To the best of my ability I have selected a team.
1) Oats: This is a guy who has played unafraid of what others think of him, making a mediocre (at best) case against clarity and chiming in every chance he gets. He clearly is excited to scumhunt, which is what I believe to be the only reason he placed a vote on toad. I visualize a scum in this setup taking more time discussing who's town, which is definitely the "safer" route.
2) Djo: I can't say that I have a very strong read on him, but I'm leaning towards town. He has proposed his own ideas for how to run an election. A scum could be just as forthcoming, however. Beyond that, I have to go off of his reads: he doesn't trust acro and prox, and thinks oats is town. I am in general agreement there. Definitely my weakest read.
3) Sandroba: However much I feel he's playing lazy (he is), I keep coming back to his filter. I do currently believe that he is town. Everything he has done to date has been to provide clarity and insight into reads others have had and the general mechanics of this specific game. He could do this as scum, but I am inclined to believe he could have been a little less helpful and gotten away with it as scum as well. I look forward to seeing his proposed party as this will provide the information I need to help solidify my understanding of his thought process and determine if he truly belongs on this platform. But as it currently stands, I believe him to be town, and am including him on my platform.
A brief note on Dieno: He is playing so badly that many would consider him likely town, as newbie scum tend to play far more cautiously. However, the persistence and singlemindedness with which he's been pushing his campaign (even after repeatedly being warned) and shitting up the thread leaves enough doubt in my head to exclude him. As a newbie town trying to improve he would have changed his gameplan long ago, as a troll he would be more, well, trolly, and as a newbie who doesn't give a shit he would have given up. How he's been playing is just plain sad, to the point where I wonder if what he's been doing is deliberately anti-town as a scum. He most definitely could be town, but I would rather not take such a risk on such an unknown.
So he picked Oats for the obvious towny to gain people's trust, Djo who has always been suspicious to me, and Sandro who has recently come under heavy fire as a scumbag. Not very solid picks IMO. Also, why attack me at the end of it? He doesn't directly call me scum, but it seems as if he is trying to plant some seeds of doubt at least. He ends up switching his party no much later to Djo/Phagga/Dien. Why so flip floppy, I ask? He later revealed that I made the cut solely because of my roleclaim. Mistake No. 4 + Show Spoiler +On November 24 2012 01:19 goodkarma wrote:Show nested quote +On November 24 2012 01:08 Clarity_nl wrote:
GK how do you feel about Hapa's townread on you? I am not in the least bit surprised that he has made one. But he has come to the correct conclusion, for the right reasons. I do regret that the last few times I've played with him I never took the time to congratulate him, so I'll do so now. He played NMM XXIII spectacularly, and it has been a pleasure to play with him since then. <3 Happa He seems overly relieved to finally have someone call him town. Even threw in a cute little heart there too. My gut says he started off very scummy, then toned it down a bit after he decided to drop his campaign and try to blend in. He is definitely top 3 on my Mafiadar. My next target: Sandroba
1. I agree that I don't like his focus on townhunting, but lets be honest here: what use does mafia have to townhunt, except that they can probably hide it more easily? They already know who is town. Null tell.
2. Being wrong is not a scumtell.
3. Party picks are indeed one of the mysteries, but I don't see his party as scum motivated. More as if he is not very good at getting his motivation and town reads straight. I still have more problems with Phagga than anybody else he picked, though. I don't get how he suddenly picked Phagga out of the blue.
4. Null.
I am actually of the reverse opinion: he started out okay and got scummier over time.
The reason I asked for Dieno's reads was because I stumbled over GK's use of language. Dieno apparently didn't, which was what surprised me a bit in his case. However, the meta explains his language quite a bit.
One last thing:
On November 24 2012 13:34 goodkarma wrote:
I can understand the excuses that Sandroba has provided, but I find the complete lack of followup on who he would consider a prime scum suspect to be disturbing. It's as though he is holding back, maybe... because he's scum, and as scum making up even a half-baked scumread is hard for him. I would really like to see him take some initiative and actually help town out. He continues to fail to deliver in this department, which would leave me to believe that his complete apathy and lack of involvement in this game is indeed scum-driven.
I will keep my vote on Sandroba for the time being. Syllo has all but proven himself to be town at this point, and I will change my vote from Sandroba only if he somehow believes he isn't scum after his latest post.
The bolded statement feels INCREDIBLY forced. As if he is intentionally playing down Sandro's skill at playing scum to make it fit in with his case. Given that everybody and their brother is looking at Sandro to push his reads, don't you think a scum Sandro would have done so by now?
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On November 25 2012 00:02 Oatsmaster wrote:
Acro, lets ignore that it is Sandro we are talking about.
Would a mafia player that is under heavy suspicion from sheeping votes but no clear case push reads? or wait for a clear case on another player, which is kita or Cave Johnson at this this point and push that case hard?
Either, or, both. Depends on who we're talking about. There is no fixed recipe for getting out from under suspicion as either alignment... frankly your question is nonsense. You explain your actions, your reasoning and get on with playing the game. Everybody else just has to make sense of it.
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Yeah, still frustratingly null on Kita too. The most damning things about him are that he ran for leader and wants to lynch Drazerk. It is just so... circumstantial. He *should* know better about Drazerk, who trolls, fakeclaims and makes himself as useless as possible in every game he's in, regardless of alignment.
Not saying Drazerk should never be lynched, but I fail to see how his claim makes him a priority for lynching now. The candidacy is only damning because I agree there should have been some scum in there. Other than that I am unsurprised about Kita running.
His stance on Sandroba seems sensible, and he voiced many of the suspicions I have of risk.nuke.
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On November 24 2012 12:26 kitaman27 wrote:
The thing that bothers me the most about sandroba is that he has to be aware of the town's perception of his mafia reputation. I'm sympathetic to the fact that real life events can sometimes get in the way, but if they do, I try to make it clear to the thread and use any free time to make up for it.
From my experience, not having a scum candidate is a sub-par strategy. I'm not completely sold on syllo's innocence yet. It is quite possible that toad's presence in the party would override any mafia presence, although I liked his party selection and the success of the first event gives me no reason to go after syllo at the moment. sandroba's party selection was solid, even though we don't know if it would have mattered with his presence.
What puzzles me the most is that sandroba claims to have taken a hit of 125 damage. If its town damage, it should be claimed.
From a mafia perspective, I'd want to take out Frog in one hit to not have to worry about a cleared pro-town presence on day two, in addition to an additional round of night actions, and possible healing effects. Spreading out the damage seems suboptimal. Based on the flip, it seems the mafia would know that 400ish damage wouldn't be enough to take him out. Why would they hit sandroba, someone who has fallen out of favor in town's eyes, over syllo? Perhaps they were banking on a failed event one, but even so, I'd hit syllo over sandro if I'm not going to stack everything on a single player.
I'll have to come back to this as there are a few other players I'd like to look at first before making a final decision.
To me this reads "I am on the fence". Given that I feel quite similar, except that I lean towards not lynching rather than lynching, that resonates. However upon rereading, I really don't like how he hammers on casting doubt on Syllo. Being cautious is all very well, but why bring it up repeatedly? Both Syllo's filter and his successful party give me no reason to doubt him. Repeatedly voicing suspicions serves no town purpose that I see.
However, upon rereading this a few times I can see how you see this as completely void of any content. I am probably getting tired. I'll leave off reading Prom for now and go eat, do some other stuff before coming back and trying to figure out Prom and Toad.
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On November 25 2012 00:34 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2012 00:09 Acrofales wrote:
The bolded statement feels INCREDIBLY forced. As if he is intentionally playing down Sandro's skill at playing scum to make it fit in with his case. Given that everybody and their brother is looking at Sandro to push his reads, don't you think a scum Sandro would have done so by now? Don't you think a town sandro would too?
Yes. That means it is not indicative of alignment and thus implying that it is, is FORCED.
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On November 25 2012 02:11 Clarity_nl wrote:
Can someone other than marv confirm that Drazerk would be a coinflip at the point?
I believe I have said so repeatedly. Toad has said so too. Take one look at his profile and you would see it is so.
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@Marv: only half of your case is decent, which is disconcerting to me. Please explain the scum motivation for Kita treating his own campaign as a joke.
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Sorry, pressed post to soon. I do agree with the lack of scumhunting and his fixation on CJ, which really don't make sense.
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Also, does this mean you think he's lying about the conditional damage?
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On November 25 2012 02:20 TheChronicler wrote:Show nested quote +On November 24 2012 19:53 Acrofales wrote:
TheChronicler
I am glad your thought process is finally becoming clear and I am starting to see why you think there is no contradiction there. Let me go through it with you and see if I understand you this time round. If any point is wrong, please correct it, or if the whole thing is wrong, please say so. We will get to questions and considerations afterwards.
1. You have no confidence in your own D1 scum or town reads.
2a. You extrapolate from that that nobody else can be right in their D1 reads either.
2b. Or you have seen so many D1 mislynches that you conclude town sucks at picking scum and therefore also sucks at picking town.
3. Therefore the best town can do when facing the problem of picking not one, but four town reads on D1 is to choose pretty much at random and pray that we're right.
4. Your plan would probably fail the event (but that is unimportant, because we would probably fail the event anyway, see point 3), but would give us insight into who picked whom and based on what reasoning. We could then use this to scumhunt in the rest of the game.
Further considerations are that you would pick your scumreads to give their preferred party member and not town reads.
Is this assessment correct? Please also indicate whether you feel 2a or 2b is most accurate, or both are considerations you had in mind? Both 2a and 2b. Someone pointed out earlier that there are cases like crazy claims that almost have to be town, so there is that, but picking someone like Keir to be on the team seems absurd to me. Why not pick someone like Marv (who didn't even run iirc)? I think 4 is worded unfairly, but yes.
Okay, moving on. I cannot fathom why you voted Syllo. Please explain it again.
From my point of view: you think chance of success at the event is very small. You don't think Syllo can actually read townies, so it's like flipping a coin whether we succeed or not. All you hope to obtain from the event is information and Syllo offers you the least of it. Why vote Syllo, with as reason that CJ is opposed to Syllo.
Rather than Hapa, Kita, Toad or Sandroba, who were all giving information about why they were picking their team, which insofar as I understand you, equates to more information.
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On November 25 2012 03:16 Toadesstern wrote:
Acro sweetie do me a favor and vote me or I'll do stupid things.
You're still on my list of players to filter before the day is done. You and Prom. At the moment I'm still happy with my vote on Chronicler. Why you think Chronicler is town?
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So if I understand this right, Oats, you think that they are both scum? And they both just myseriously dropped their campaign halfway through the day. Someone please explain to me how two experienced players just flop over and give up halfway through the day.
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On November 25 2012 03:23 TheChronicler wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2012 03:12 Acrofales wrote:On November 25 2012 02:20 TheChronicler wrote:On November 24 2012 19:53 Acrofales wrote:
TheChronicler
I am glad your thought process is finally becoming clear and I am starting to see why you think there is no contradiction there. Let me go through it with you and see if I understand you this time round. If any point is wrong, please correct it, or if the whole thing is wrong, please say so. We will get to questions and considerations afterwards.
1. You have no confidence in your own D1 scum or town reads.
2a. You extrapolate from that that nobody else can be right in their D1 reads either.
2b. Or you have seen so many D1 mislynches that you conclude town sucks at picking scum and therefore also sucks at picking town.
3. Therefore the best town can do when facing the problem of picking not one, but four town reads on D1 is to choose pretty much at random and pray that we're right.
4. Your plan would probably fail the event (but that is unimportant, because we would probably fail the event anyway, see point 3), but would give us insight into who picked whom and based on what reasoning. We could then use this to scumhunt in the rest of the game.
Further considerations are that you would pick your scumreads to give their preferred party member and not town reads.
Is this assessment correct? Please also indicate whether you feel 2a or 2b is most accurate, or both are considerations you had in mind? Both 2a and 2b. Someone pointed out earlier that there are cases like crazy claims that almost have to be town, so there is that, but picking someone like Keir to be on the team seems absurd to me. Why not pick someone like Marv (who didn't even run iirc)? I think 4 is worded unfairly, but yes. Okay, moving on. I cannot fathom why you voted Syllo. Please explain it again. From my point of view: you think chance of success at the event is very small. You don't think Syllo can actually read townies, so it's like flipping a coin whether we succeed or not. All you hope to obtain from the event is information and Syllo offers you the least of it. Why vote Syllo, with as reason that CJ is opposed to Syllo. Rather than Hapa, Kita, Toad or Sandroba, who were all giving information about why they were picking their team, which insofar as I understand you, equates to more information. How did the others give more information? Every candidate's thing was "we pick town reads". Who cares if someone's reads are invisible until after event. That has no impact on the information we end up with. Cj's nonsense pushed me to a sylo vote, and that's pretty much it.
I give up. You keep contradicting yourself. I don't know what to make of it. I see it as scum, but apparently I am the only one (or one of the few). Trying to figure out how your brain works is about as useful as trying to figure out Kush. The only way to make sense of you is through meta and you are deliberately withholding that. I am done talking to you.
Marv, Syllo, Toad, Kita, Sand: you guys really don't get scum vibes from this guy? He has not held his story straight once. Now I know inconsistency is not a scum trait, but it makes it impossible to determine the motivation behind the actions, and the only reason I can think of wanting to do that is for scum.
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Oh, add VE to the list of people I want opinions from.
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EPT
