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On November 29 2012 23:42 Oatsmaster wrote:
Since the votes dont look like moving,
Ima gonna claim.
I am a Doctor
I healed SDM n1 because he was my best townread.
I didnt breadcrumb because I couldnt really make it subtle.
Given no RB claim we're pretty much dead sure to have a doctor. If no-one counter claims Oats is confirmed (and I'm confirmed) and my entire universe will collapse again 
Hmm, there some possibility we have a JK, he blocked scum and scum didn't claim RB. In that case Oats is forcing our JK to claim which is a smart play if he's going down anyway.
I'll have to think about this.
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If we have a JK don't claim yet, we need to think this through. I guess there's some chance we have both a JK and doc which would fuck this up even more.
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Fuck hold on here, no one claim, not even doctor!
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Oats didn't breadcrumb, this is a super convenient play.
No one fucking claim.
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Scum Oats knew they targeted me, failed and there was no RB claim. Scum KNOWS we have a doctor. This might be an attempt to get our doctor to claim and trade Oats for our doctor.
We could potentially gamble and lynch Oats, hoping it's a fake claim and save our doctor from claiming.
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red text.
woohoo.
So what do you think happened on n1?
Scum failed to send in KP?
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Actually Doctor isnt that useful because its still a crapshoot on who you kill.
So 1 for 1 for Doc isnt that good.
If I was scum 1 for 1 cop/jailkeeper would be better.
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Iunno SDM that is a bit risky, but I admit I am fucking horrible at this sort of game setup speculation so I am going to have a hard time following anyone on their reasoning on these things. The way I see this though, is that Oats just painted a target on his head. If he is in fact Dr as he claims he is, scum are probably going to want to get rid of him immediately.
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Yeah they will get rid of him immediately. You could speculate that that they wouldn't just to throw us off though. But it is far to risky because he could save the one they go for.
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If we do a cost-benefit analysis.
Scenario 1. We don't counterclaim and lynch Oats blindly
a) Oats is doctor and we end up D3 MYLO 4 vs 2. We will have no confirmed townie because they'll NK me.
b) Oats fake claimed and we end up D3 with 5 vs 1. We still (might) have our doctor and our doctor has 1 townie confirmed.
Scenario 2. We counterclaim.
a) Oats is doctor, no counterclaim happens, they kill Oats. We end up D3 either 4 vs 2 or 5 vs 1 and I'll be left as confirmed townie.
b) Oats isn't doctor, someone counterclaims, they kill doctor. We end up D3 5 vs 1 without doctor but with me as confirmed townie.
I think I like Scenario 2 better, but I need to think about it.
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So the question is knowing they will get rid of him immediately can we base an action with this? I have to admit even the worst breadcrumb would work here....
For example if oats is town with no association case is the yamato case still strong? Yes it was strong without association but it doesn't make sense as I would have associated cc with kick. Then again that is far to logical an association so having helo in the mix is interesting... Well lets put it this way. It is likely he is doctor because he gave us ages to think about it.
Also SDM that is risky like.... risky..... admittedly I see the logic behind it. give me time to think...
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No not scenario one. It's nuts and I like nuts but it's still freaking nuts...
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11589 Posts
Kick, you restated Munk's case on me and said my vote on him and posts about him looked suspicious. I shouldn't waste time explaining my motivation for voting for Munk because none of you believe me when I post that kind of information anyway. If other people think it's suspicious, and don't believe me when I talk about why I voted for Munk, then I guess you've done a good job convincing them, and me posting more about it is only wasting time. As for Munk's case, it hinges solely on the idea that I haven't contributed, so me sitting here responding to this case is only giving you guys more ammunition to come back at me with. I've said all this before. I'll let my play be people's deciding factor.
I hate that Oats claimed blue. Honestly, I'm inclined not to believe it because SDM was THE MOST obvious scum target N1 so him claiming he protected him is not conclusive enough proof. It could just as easily be a fake claim by scum in that regard. Equally terrible is the fact that even if it saves him from getting lynched today is that unless there is a JK that protects him tonight, he has just painted a really huge target on his back as a blue for scum KP.
Instead of claiming your supposed blue role, Oats, you should really make a case that isn't bad. The one point you have is that I'm not pursuant of Jacob, when in fact I've been trying to make him do more than use this thread as his bouncing board since D1. Why don't I consider him a valid lynch candidate? Because as I learned with Munk this game, people who are unsure of their reads and follow things posted in the thread are not necessarily scum. Maybe he hasn't made a case because there aren't that many to be made? Maybe he's not putting in the time to play optimally, just like Munk. Either way, I can't justify placing my vote on him today after seeing what happened yesterday.
The argument I HAVE made about people that look scummy is that they are pushy with their reads and cases and try to be forceful in getting people to agree with them. As I said before, both Kick and CC have done this, and both of them continually attack me for not contributing when it is mostly their fault that I am constantly on the defensive. I may be an easy target to go after, admittedly, but I seriously doubt that I should be the only person in this game worthy of genuine suspicion. Scum would do this because the more time they waste getting people to look into a player they know is town, the less time there is for people to look at them.
Helo is playing a deflection game, in my opinion. Twice CC has posted about Helo being uninterested in the game, and twice he has come out with cases pointing to other people. He doesn't seem involved in active discussion about those cases, either, he just posts and leaves. Really odd. Not leaning scum but it's just an observation.
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On November 30 2012 00:27 JacobStrangelove wrote:
Yeah they will get rid of him immediately. You could speculate that that they wouldn't just to throw us off though. But it is far to risky because he could save the one they go for.
There's no scenario where this could happen. Or at least that would be retarded play by scum.
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I think kickstart hard defending CC at the start is not alignment/association related. Kickstart was trying to stop my stupidity from shitting up the thread.
I am really sorry I didnt leave a breadcrumb
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I have no fucking time to make another case.
READ THE BLOODY THREAD.
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On November 30 2012 00:19 Oatsmaster wrote:
red text.
woohoo.
So what do you think happened on n1?
Scum failed to send in KP?
No, if you're scum you obviously knew you were trying to kill me and fail. Thus you know we have a doctor and can force him to claim.
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Yeah that makes sense but
Occam's razor, the simplest explanation is most likely the correct one
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On November 30 2012 00:33 Oatsmaster wrote:I think kickstart hard defending CC at the start is not alignment/association related. Kickstart was trying to stop my stupidity from shitting up the thread. I am really sorry I didnt leave a breadcrumb
As is it probably doesn't matter (assuming you're town).
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EPT
