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On November 17 2012 09:24 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On November 17 2012 09:12 strongandbig wrote:
okay so BH explain to me
even if we accept that I was somehow lurking or whatever
why does that change your interpretation of my day 1 posting? you were pretty adamant that it meant I was town, and then you completely changed your mind without any explanation whatsoever. Let me break it down for you SnB cause apparently you're not getting it at all. This is the last time I'm responding to your trash posting-- if you convince other people to join your crusade, I'll talk to you again but other than this you're wasting my time. Here's the deadline votecount, with confirmed flips highlighted: DarthPunk (1): thrawn2112 (now djo) Z-BosoN (5): Clarity_nl, marvellosity, Crossfire99, strongandbig, Hapahaulidebears (1): Hopeless1der Hapahauli (6): Z-BosoN, Blazinghand, debears, iamperfection, Kickstart, DarthPunk Now I don't think anyone on the Hapa wagon is a serious lynch target today. I don't personally think it's impossible scum is on the wagon, but it doesn't make a huge amount of sense for scum to bus and lynch Hapa unless they're in a better position than him in terms of town cred. As the votes started to fly, any reasonable scum player would have unvoted him unless they thought they had something to gain by lynching their own godfather last-minute. So I'm gonna say that scum is among the following list: Djo, Hopeless, Clarity, SnB Hopeless is in my mind confirmed not-scum right now. There's some small probability he's the SK, but we don't need to think about that unless the third scum flips and the game isn't over (I think). Really though he's not worth a lynch today at all. Djo replaced in and isn't getting lynched today. That leaves you and Clarity, and my only suspicion on clarity is the same suspicion on Hapa I had D1: He was too accepting of my blue-claim, and too reasonable about it. It's like he already *knew* I was a JK just from the claim. This is why I was trying to lynch Hapa D1 and why Clarity doesn't get a perfect town-read in my book, despite his otherwise solid play. You have no solid play in your favor, SnB. You went from carefree posting to a mixture of lurking and aggressive, big-case posting, which is in fact not your town meta. You're dead today.
aggressive big case posting is totally my town meta
have you even read any of my recent town games
or are you just making more shit up
and I thought I already explained -
(1) scum don't feel like they can unvote someone like that - they're stuck to consistency
(2) you had no reason to expect hapa would actually get lynched, you yourself have said you had no idea what was going on and you got hit by flood control
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On November 17 2012 09:27 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On November 17 2012 09:22 strongandbig wrote:
And here's something else you're ignoring - your claim makes even less sense from a town point of view. You claimed early in day 1 when you had like three votes on you. If you were town, by doing this you would have unnecessarily ruined your effectiveness as a town power role.
My claim makes perfect sense. I was under heavy pressure, and they weren't listening to my arguments. I didn't want to be on the lynch table, and honestly any analysis and voting is infinitely more important than being a JK. The number one role of any blue player is to play like a VT-- the blue powers are just a bonus on top, especially in Normal games. The blue powers I used to avoid a shitty mislynch D1 and focus the discussion. And hey, it worked, too.
you were not under heavy pressure, you had a few votes on you. You barely even tried to persuade them otherwise, and what a real VT would've done would have been to ignore a few random votes and actually hunt scum.
Show nested quote +On November 17 2012 09:22 strongandbig wrote:
The argument that your claim is "uncontested" is completely irrelevant. This is not an open setup. I mentioned this above. Your claim is also unverifiable, making it a good claim for scum.
It's not irrelevant. There's now town JKer counterclaiming me, and you can't just toss that out the window-- so far there is one blue claim other than myself, and that's all. I'm uncontested.
for all we know there is only one other blue. Or maybe one claimed, one unclaimed. It's not relevant. We don't know anything about the setup.
Show nested quote +On November 17 2012 09:22 strongandbig wrote:
The thing is, nothing about your behavior in this game resembles your town play. Your cases are terrible, your arguments are terrible, and your thread presence isn't constructive.
If you're gonna pull a meta argument, show me a damn game inw hich I act like this as scum, I double dog dare you
you've like never been scum in a normal game. I don't have to show that, I just have to show that (A) you haven't been playing like you do as town, and (B) your play is scum motivated.
Show nested quote +On November 17 2012 09:22 strongandbig wrote:
And I don't have to "defeat" your argument about lynching Hapa. You did that yourself. how
On November 16 2012 15:17 Blazinghand wrote:
Take a look at the timestamps on those votes, Djodref-- they were all made within the span of the last couple of minutes before the lynch. Nobody knew how many votes where on anyone else and we were getting hit with flood control. Everyone on the Hapa wagon was town.
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On November 17 2012 09:29 debears wrote:
##Unvote
Considering you did tell me twice about the iamp timing thing, there is some hope that you are town
Let's see where this goes.
@SnB
1) You're "scum wouldn't do that' defense is WIFOM. You know this shit. Why even bring it up? Scum can do anything. You know better than that as town
It's not enirely wifom. It's true that there is an element of wifom to it. However, if you agree with me that a play, judged of its own merit, makes no sense as scum play, then to think that I did it and am still scum because of wifom, you have to believe that (a) I played badly on purpose so that I could say "look how bad this play would be". I admit - it is possible that I played "bad on purpose" so that I could say "look how bad that play would be". But making smart plays is always going to be better than making dumb plays and then calling them dumb. Like, if you look at my filter, do you think to yourself "this makes sense for scum to do?" I contend, no. If you look at it and say "wow, there's no way this guy is scum, they wouldn't do that?" Again, I contend no. What I expect you would do is say "wow, this filter is just weird." That's just bad scum strategy.
2) You haven't given any thoughts other than BH for scumreads
This is true. I'm still thinking about whether or not I still think dabears might be scum, and if not who my second scumread would be.
3) "You didn't want to be serious day 1" - Then why did you join the fucking game? You make this game so much harder for those of us who try if you are actually town. That's dogshit and you know it. Give the spot to someone who wants it next time (if you are town)
There are plenty of players who take the whole game non-seriously. And it's not like I wasn't playing at all - I still made reads, told people when they were being stupid, etcetera. But, sorry, I guess? Still, does this make me scum?
Honestly, those 3 points make me want to autolynch you. You're playing the sympathy "boo hoo I didn't want to try" card
I'm not trying for sympathy. I'm being 100% open and honest with you, and explaining my actions.
Also how is "boo hoo I didn't want to try" a card? That just doesn't make sense.
You're either horseshit town or scum. Now, if you are town, show me by making reads damnit
Right now I'm trying to persuade people that my top scum read is scum.
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On November 17 2012 15:02 DarthPunk wrote:
We are not lynching BH until MAYBE after ZB DJO Clarity S&B are all dead. Continuing on that tangent is anti town.
this is stupid. Trying to persuade people that your top scum read is scum is never anti town. It's only anti town if you use it as a way to hide from actual contribution or engagement with the other people in the thread. But pushing your top scum read is, like, exactly what townies are supposed to do.
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On November 17 2012 15:07 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On November 17 2012 15:06 Djodref wrote:On November 17 2012 15:02 DarthPunk wrote:
We are not lynching BH until MAYBE after ZB DJO Clarity S&B are all dead. Continuing on that tangent is anti town. He has already 2 votes and debears has voted him during the exchange between S&B and BH. I'm going to push his lynch because you are wrong and I think I'm right. I don't care if I die in the process because we can afford some mislynch and you are going to understand that all my cases were genuine when I flip. Do you not understand that you are almost certainly lynching a blue?
DP think for a minute.
BH claimed that he was roleblocked. The scum roleblocker hasn't flipped. Therefore, the last scum has to be a roleblocker for BH to be telling the truth. That means that at best BH is a vanilla townie now.
But please, let's actually talk about this for a minute. Why do you believe BH? And please don't tell me that it's "because his claim doesn't make sense for scum." I've already made it clear why I don't agree with that - for one thing, it makes less sense for town in my opinion, and for another thing I think that BH is the kind of player who is likely to fakeclaim blue as scum or SK. I also think that BH's behavior doesn't demonstrate a town mindset or attitude.
And don't tell me it's because of "setup speculation" or that "not enough blues have claimed" - the setup isn't open, so we don't know how many blues there are. We don't even know what modifications Keirathi may have made to the mafiascum/mafiawiki C9++ probability tables. There's also a good chance that one or more blues may just not have claimed yet because it isn't yet the best time for them to do so. This is not a sufficient reason for you to be so sure about BH's claim.
So please, tell me - what in BH's behavior makes you so sure he's telling the truth?
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oh actually this is worth a try
In the OP, a few specific modifications to the C9++ setup are listed - namely, doctor->JK, IC->miller, all vigs are single shot, no other single shot powers. Are these the only modifications to the C9++ setup, or have you also modified the probabilities of different setups like WBG does in his normal minis?
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On November 17 2012 15:28 Blazinghand wrote:
lol equating jk claim with miller claim
what a guy
Actually, these two claims are exactly identical right now in nearly every respect
- both have no night actions
- both are unconfirmable
- As yet we have no setup information which makes one more likely than the other
There are only two differences -
(1) ZB claimed exactly when and how a town miller should have claimed, and your claim made no sense from a town perspective
(2) ZB can't be confirmed by a DT check.
So yeah I see those as pretty equivalent.
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On November 17 2012 23:36 Clarity_nl wrote:
Strongandbig what kind of reads do you have currently? Since you didn't post any in the final hour of N1, perhaps you could now?
Yeah so here's what I'm going to do now - I'm going to read the cases on ZB, and his defenses, and peoples' reactions to them, and tell you what I think of that stuff. I think that's the second highest priority for me right now after trying to convince people that BH is scum.
BTW clarity, let's talk about a couple of things regarding your conviction that I'm scum.
(1) Part of your case was that I was lying about playing dota at deadline. Now that I've provided proof that I was not lying, does that part change?
(2) You commented on the first part of my defense, which I think of as the "answers to general arguments for me being scum." However, you haven't commented on the second part of my defense, the "explanation of my filter." There were several things in there that I think were important in terms of responding to the arguments you make in your case. I would like you to tell me what you think of the following points I make:
- Do you think I am lying in my explanation of the "accidental VT claim"? If so, what don't you believe?
- What do you think about my explanation of the substance behind the Kenpachi rule? (a) Do you agree that there is a substantial argument to be made there? (b) Do you believe me when I say that to me, it's a real scumhunting technique? Does that make you reconsider anything about my filter?
- All in all - do you believe or disbelieve my argument that "even though I didn't put any effort into the form of my posts, there was a higher level of involvement with the thread going on than the form of the posts would indicate?
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On November 17 2012 23:46 Clarity_nl wrote:
Except for the fact that if BH is a JK then the scum roleblocker HAS to roleblock him.
I guess that's true but I don't really see how that matters unless we have a second claimed blue role. Unless there's a terrible too-obvious breadcrumb, seven or eight townies should be much better at figuring out the last scum than that scum (by themselves or in the unlikely event that there's two scum left) should be at figuring out any fourth blue role we have that's still useful.
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Just wanted to remind everyone of this:
On November 15 2012 01:10 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On November 15 2012 00:48 Blazinghand wrote:
here via phone. anyo e votibg me needs to explain how my play this game is diferent than Storm Mafja or similar to any of the scum games ive played especially since a nontrivial component of the case is meat. no getting off voting me on meta wkfbojt at least doing your HW and staking out a position you can be held to. Ill be back in a few hours prk ably to vote one of these guys trying to opt out of the discussion by voti g me or more likely to call tbem Bad and develep DP case or talk Bout hopeless 1 meat Take more time on your phone, man. Anyway, I'll bite. First things first: you are a clever dude. You are also aware of your scum meta, and we've talked about it before too. As such you're capable of making changes to your meta, or trying to. In other words, being more aggressive and what have you. Things that have struck me this game with that: - You called iamp "bad" at least a couple of times. Just outright calling him a bad player. This is in contrast to say Rock Band where you railed at him for poor play and you kept pushing him to play better. Here you call him bad and that's different. - You called Kickstart "scum or bad", he should be "ignored", he should be "removed from our discourse" (or whatever the direct quote was). The townie BH I know does not completely belittle players like this. This boils down to pretty much outright bullying of a brand new player, and that is not the townie BH I know. - we've also talked about this before again, but one reason you're pretty good as town is that you make yourself look positively townie with your play. I don't give a shit if you got mislynched once, that's how you normally play town. Here your play is marked by put downs, sarcastic remarks, and very little positive input. - your case on Z-Boson. This was going to be part of my 'quiz', but if we take a look at your two most recent town-games, Rock Band and Whose Line, your first cases are marked by extensive use of meta. X is scummy because of Y, and look at how he played in this game and this game and this game to try to prove your argument. In this game you made no effort to research Z-Boson's meta, and that's not what I expect of a town BH. In contrast, your first major case as SK in Emergency Mafia also failed to utilise any meta as a supporting argument. Same with Bureaucracy.
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On November 15 2012 21:47 Clarity_nl wrote:Show nested quote +On November 15 2012 10:52 Blazinghand wrote:
I still don't like Hapa at all. He seems way too straight-laced for his normal town play. Anyone want to lynch him? Show nested quote +On November 15 2012 10:53 Blazinghand wrote:
I'm like not really serious about lynching hapa, btw, we shouldn't be switching this close to the deadline Show nested quote +On November 15 2012 10:53 Blazinghand wrote:On November 15 2012 10:53 debears wrote:
Save Hapa for d2 BH yeah basically this Show nested quote +On November 15 2012 10:55 Blazinghand wrote:On November 15 2012 10:54 iamperfection wrote:On November 15 2012 10:53 Blazinghand wrote:On November 15 2012 10:53 debears wrote:
Save Hapa for d2 BH yeah basically this well i actually wouldnt mind doing it now this is not town hapa. going herp derp scumslip scumslip
##FoS: HapaLet's get a count of who's in. FOS him if you are willing to vote him. Show nested quote +On November 15 2012 10:56 Blazinghand wrote:
You know what, fuck it, let's vote him. I'll go back to ZB if need be.
##unvote
##vote: Hapa I just don't get this series of events. I agree that the "scumslip" thing was suspicious but we were waaaayy too close to deadline.
On November 15 2012 21:48 Clarity_nl wrote:
And this is coming from a claimed JK who is now claiming VT. With his reasoning being that he wouldn't be active. Only he was.
On November 15 2012 21:54 Clarity_nl wrote:The dumbest part for me is that I asked him to post his night action Show nested quote +On November 15 2012 11:17 Blazinghand wrote:On November 15 2012 11:15 Clarity_nl wrote:
Blazinghand, before I forget, in the last hour of night I'd like you to post your night action. Absolutely. I wouldn't have it any other way. Then a mere 3.5 hours later he posts Show nested quote +On November 15 2012 14:54 Blazinghand wrote:
And I know you guys are gonna hate me for thus, but uh, yeah, I'm not a JK. Monday I had some family issues come up and it meant I wouldn't have much time to play through today, so I had to fake claim. Thursday and onwards I'm free though. Of course everyone is gonna be like super mad at me for this, but it worked, okay? Okay. Why would a VT blazinghand want to answer my question so quickly and with so much conviction if he planned on spilling the beans on his claim.
Clarity do you still feel suspicious about BH's behavior close to the deadline?
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On November 17 2012 09:21 Blazinghand wrote:
Honestly, I expect more out of you, not as a scum or town player, but as a player in general and as a person. I guess my first read on you in that game so long ago was correct: SnB is a worthless mafia player.
just saw this again
fuck you times 9000
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Some points from Marv's z-boson case that I find important or interesting, with z-boson's responses (paraphrased) in red - his choice, I'm just following along - and my opinion on the point in green:
- z-boson's lack of interaction with darthpunk despite references to their history with each other - Marv says
Generally, given Z-Bo's intimate familiarity with DP's play and his meta, there seems to be no discernable effort to make any read on him on that basis. Z-Boson is calling DarthPunk scum right now, but there's no supporting evidence of games previously played. I don't buy it.
z-boson says he didn't want to start reading deeply into darthpunk yet because darthpunk hadn't posted enough to get a good read on him.
This is tough - on the one hand, it's true that darthpunk didn't have many posts yet and hadn't really engaged in the game actively; on the other hand, given the history that z-b and dp apparently have together, you'd expect that he would have more to say about dp's weird attitude towards the game. Also, the idea that z-b had decided not to start focusing on dp yet doesn't mesh with the fact that he referred to him as "a good lynch."
- not enough short/light-hearted posts
z-boson says he is doing this on purpose because he's tired of being called scum for inconsistencies in his light-hearted posts
[green]I don't really see a way to tell whether or not z-boson is telling the truth about this meta point.[green]
- odd wording in some posts
z-boson says "this kind of wording problem is what I have to pay more attention to"
meh, that's not a real response, but it's not a very significant scum tell / case argument either
- Z-boson's attitude towards the lynch on Day1:
When he is townie, he is very indecisive about who he wants to lynch. Just look at his filter in GSL3 or Liquid city. Liquid City his vote jumped around more times than I can count and with great uncertainty, and even his final vote he still seemed clueless. And in GSL3 he agonised for days on everyone before finally voting for someone.
Here there is no... communication with town, trying to figure things out properly. It's BAM, BlazingHand is scum. He pursues BlazingHand - and make no mistake, he can pursue very well as scum, check the filter I gave you. Then when BH is off the table, he comes back today with BAM, Hopeless is scum.
here's the biggie that z-boson doesn't respond to at all. And this is a significant point that can't be explained by "I decided to change my meta." It's not about "how z-boson posts," it's about "the attitude that z-boson takes towards the game itself." This is also Marv's most persuasive point, IMO.
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this post is pretty interesting... not one, but two complete misinterpretations of what I was actually saying.
On November 17 2012 10:41 Z-BosoN wrote:All righty had a tough day. Read SnB's filter, and I don't think he's a good lynch today. Couple of reasons, mostly based on his interaction with hapahauli. This post: + Show Spoiler +On November 14 2012 03:56 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On November 14 2012 02:31 Hapahauli wrote:Catching up on my lunch break.
Regarding SnB##UnvoteAfter sleeping on it, I'm starting to agree that his play is too far of a deviation from his normal scum play to be scummy. I don't know what he's thinking, but it's much more reckless of a playstyle than I'd expect of scum SnB. (FWIW, the fact that he's continuing this behavior into today makes me think he's an SK or something. It falls into that "townie but really off" type of play that's common with 3rd party roles.)
On November 13 2012 17:42 Clarity_nl wrote:Hapa, this still bothers me. I asked you what you thought about SnB's claim and if you thought it was bad for town, and you answered: On November 13 2012 10:12 Hapahauli wrote:
@ Clarity
Well in a theoretical sense yes, but you remember how well that worked with Cheesecake in Newbie XXX right? It's really not that significant IMO. You compared this to Cheese's claim from NMM XXX even though the situations are completely different. The only reason Cheese claimed was because he thought only VT's knew the VT flavor. So he was trying to claim without alerting scum. SnB just outright claimed VT. After I explain why it's different, you basically give me the same answer: On November 13 2012 10:25 Hapahauli wrote:On November 13 2012 10:14 Clarity_nl wrote:
It's not like he flavor claimed, thinking others didn't know the flavor. How are those situations alike?
You don't think it's a weird move for a VT to claim VT day 1? No I don't find it weird. I think it's just a pointless comment that can be made by either alignment. Again, see Mr. Cheesecake's "odd" VT claim time in the Newbie game. Him trusting Z-Bo's claim so up-front is a bit strange, but again, I don't know if it's just bad logic or scum knowing who's who. I haven't seen anything alignment indicative from him yet. The other thing I don't really like is the use of "theoretically yes" and "IMO" Whenever I've seen you post you tend to be direct and with conviction, but not this time. I still believe both situations to be the same - they are both strangely timed VT claims. Cheese's intent to "signal" other townies isn't a significant difference, as both potentially fall into the category of "scum wanting to look less suspicious despite not being suspicious." The situations are not identical by any means, but they're more similar than not. Regardless, I'm not suspicious of SnB anymore so I don't want to dwell on this.
Regarding the Z-Boson CaseI really disagree with it. The case is a giant anecdote for how Z-Boson's actions could be scummy rather than why they're scummy. ZB is setting up to look good as a wagon starter (since scum don't like to stick their necks out) and appear to contribute to town, but if you read his astonishingly short filter, it's clear he's not actually helping. He's flinging shit at the wall and hoping it sticks. All of this isn't valid at all hours into D1. All of the stuff described above is completely non-alignment indicative in the early game. Z-Boson has been less active than I'm used to seeing him, but again early D1 caveats. No reason to vote him.
Regarding iamperfectionHis sudden flip-flop on Z-Boson is really strange. He goes from strongly trusting Z-Bo's claim early in the game to a vote for really shitty reasons. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=381440¤tpage=22#434In his vote post, he first picks a fight with BH - odd considering that he's ultimately going to agree with his read. He puts a lot of stock into one of Z-Bo's early D1 postings and early-game banter (meaningless). He then talks about the "iamperfection rule" and another early D1 wishy-washy post. I wouldn't mind this if it weren't for his discussion about the miller claim: I know i said early on that i thought the miller claim was more of a town tell but well i think zbos actions speak louder. WHAT?!?!? Iamperfection had almost no doubt about Z-Bo's motives, and he's willing to do a complete 180 with the above reasoning. Just take a look at his previous stance, made right after Z-Bo's claim: On November 13 2012 09:45 iamperfection wrote:
i guess theirs no reason not to believe zbos right? has to be to risky to do if he was scum right. He immediately trusted Z-Boson without question the second Z-Bo made that claim. Then all of a sudden now he turns around and can doubt the claim he so strongly believed in earlier. It makes no sense to me, and it looks like scum jumping on someone the second they have the reason to. This would be fine if he had a good case, but he just hinges on a couple of early D1 posts and the "iamperfection" rule as opposed to anything substantial. It doesn't help that the rest of his filter reads really artificially confrontational to me. It feels like he's trying to overcompensate for being caught in GSL III for not showing his "bravado" throughout the game. ##Vote iamperfection this is much more like what i expect out of hapahauli, i guess it just took a little while for him to get into character. that said his case is pretty bad for reasons i explained above Seems genuine to me. I feel like this is a genuine exchange between hapa and SnB. Main point is hapa's read on SnB: Show nested quote +After sleeping on it, I'm starting to agree that his play is too far of a deviation from his normal scum play to be scummy. I don't know what he's thinking, but it's much more reckless of a playstyle than I'd expect of scum SnB. And SnB's response is "that's the hapa I'm accustomed to" . Also, another post from his filter: Show nested quote +On November 14 2012 22:39 strongandbig wrote:On November 14 2012 11:21 Hapahauli wrote:
Easy on the claim stuff guys - it's pointless to argue about something that already happened unless you actually think BH's claim is scummy - and it's too suicidal to be scummy IMO. He could be scum, but it's pretty unlikely.
BH - can I get your thoughts on Debears? lol hapa this post almost persuaded me to vote for BH Really, in my experience, scum don't openly base themselves off of other scum's cases like that.
lol
I did the exact opposite of this - hapa was saying that BH was not scummy, but he did it with such terrible reasoning that it made me want to kill BH even more.
He also gave Hapa a fuckin town read: Show nested quote +On November 15 2012 08:30 strongandbig wrote:
oh also i skimmed through hopelesses filter
the first half of it is mega terrible
like, there's a bunch of unimportant one-liners and then like his only big posts until he starts getting accused are about the "who knew when whether crossfire was a smurf" thing, which just doesn't matter so hard it hurts
but then later i like hopeless's responses quite a bit more
but then i actually read his list post and it contains gems like
"Hapa - town, largely due to connections between him and debears, and between him and kickstart. This read has severely influenced my current scumreads. "
town b/c he attacked your scumread, debears was attacked by your townread therefore he's scum
lolwut
"BH is trolly as fuck, but unlynchable today due to an uncountered JK claim. I haven't read into his meta, because there is no chance to push his lynch, even if I can make a convincing case. Despite this, I think the trolling is scummy, and I'll need to read the threads he's referenced during the night (assuming I'm not lynched)."
he claimed so he's gonna be hard to lynch today so why bother thinking about him
lolwut
"Clarity - Town. He seems to misread the thread or just confuse people alot. I feel that type of repeating 'mistake' is less likely to happen as scum."
yeah confusing people totally isn't in a scum's interest
lolwut
"Z-Bo - Town. I liked his pursuit of his case against BH and thought he brought up some legitimate points. Apparently they were so good BH had to claim to escape. "
lolwut
no other comments just lolwut
oh actually yes other comments - zboson is town because bh responded stupidly to his case?
"Strongandbig - Null-Town. Strange vt claim feels townslippy. However, Kenpachi rule shenanigans and insists on lynching BH for a while, despite blueclaim. Too strong of a scum motive to just let that slide, but I also think BH is scummy, so this read flips to Null-Scum if BH is in fact JK."
lolwut - is this, like, a reverse connection theory? like, if bh is telling the truth then I must be scum? i really don't think that makes sense
yeah so now i'm suddenly torn between wanting to test the kenpachi rule and hopeless's filter actually being terrible
I guess if I really really had to I might vote hopeless to push that past a darthpunk lynch, because the reasons for lynching darthpunk are actually the worst.
lol again
this wasn't me giving Hapa a town read. I was quoting from hopeless's list post and giving reasons why I thought his reasoning was bad.
This post here: Show nested quote +On November 14 2012 22:45 strongandbig wrote:On November 14 2012 11:22 marvellosity wrote:
my rage is perfectly coherent.
what's even more infuriating is that you don't understand why you are bad.
any sensible townie would argue his way out of his lynch (3 votes, cmon) and only if necessary, a few hours from deadline, claim if he could absolutely not avoid getting lynched.
Jailkeeper is a very strong role and now you've made it so it cannot protect anybody, plus a confirmed bluesnipe on you, if you are town. Which I'm not even convinced of yet, I just can't bring myself to lynch the claim day 1. Marv come the fuck on. blazinghand obviously knows this. He had such a good time trolling keirathi in Whose Line before that game's premature end, that he wants to keep it up now. I will give 2:1 hat-eating odds that blazinghand's claim is fake. idk whether that makes him scum or town, but I'm inclined to think scum. Also sounds like "confused townie" rather than someone who fakes confusion.
how does that sound confused? I could be wrong here, but I didn't get that impression at all.
I also think that a scum SnB wouldn't play the "I don't give a fuck" routine, and his reaction to pressure right here is much much different than in LVII
tl;dr
His recent showing of his play is really really town-indicative, and he's openly drawing too many connections to a confirmed scum - hapahauli. I am not comfortable with an SnB lynch. Will pursue other reads, mainly thrawn (djo) and clarity.
Let me know what you guys think.
##Unvote
yeah I feel kinda weird that I'm attacking him for the post he made defending me, but this post is pretty much aggressively not paying attention to / thinking about what he's reading. Plus, defending bad townies can be a viable scum strategy, if the bad townies get lynched anyway and the scum can go and say "look I tried to stop you guys" when the bad townie flips town.
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On November 18 2012 01:04 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On November 17 2012 23:30 strongandbig wrote:
oh actually this is worth a try
In the OP, a few specific modifications to the C9++ setup are listed - namely, doctor->JK, IC->miller, all vigs are single shot, no other single shot powers. Are these the only modifications to the C9++ setup, or have you also modified the probabilities of different setups like WBG does in his normal minis? All the probabilities are the same.
huh
interesting
not what I expected, I was expecting "no comment" or something like that
very interesting
Gonna finish reading zb's filter first
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No
you know what, BH I disagree with how you characterize Z-boson's play in GSL 3 and in Liquid City.
In both of those games, ZB pokes at multiple targets and moves his vote around as day 1 goes on.
Some stuff from Liquid City in the spoiler
+ Show Spoiler +On October 02 2012 04:45 Z-BosoN wrote:
I'm not too sure on kingjames. I can see his play coming from a noob townie. I dislike VE's play more, though. Perhaps I'm not used to his style, but now that talismania also found him scummy I guess I'm not being too unreasonable in thinking this.
##Vote VisceraEyes On October 02 2012 05:27 Z-BosoN wrote:
@VE
I hadn't seen your reply to my post, so I thought you basically had taken the same path as coag.
I'm fine with your explanations, I just found it weird how you started the thread off by attacking annul.
After reading the last two pages, I'm definitely more inclined for a KJ vote now, especially in light of his reactions after he's getting close to being lynched.
His case against Mementoss is the laziest one I've seen yet. ("he doesn't care about town win condition"). Ironically, dismisses austin's vote as silly, when his own doesn't have a "real reason".
He posted some lame excuse (aka resistance forum) for not being around.
And finally, instead of commenting on the current cases and actually to scumhunt before he dies he spends his time tallying up a vote count. Classic fluff.
So, after proper reading I've had a change of heart.
##Unvote
##Vote kingjames01
On October 02 2012 11:06 Z-BosoN wrote:
That being said, regarding Node, I'm definitely up for it.
BC's meta on kj has softened my feel towards KJ, and Node's one post to AWOL is very scum-like. On October 02 2012 11:06 Z-BosoN wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote Node
I agree with BH that ZB shows sustained focus/pressure on his targets, but I think he shows that across multiple targets, and he doesn't necessarily let one read develop completely before he jumps over to another one.
I also don't entirely agree that there's been a total lack of followup this game. ZB did keep the pressure up on BH, and he's been on and off of my wagon so many times that you'd almost expect to see him dragging back a buffalo carcass to feed his family.
I agree with BH that ZB has been putting himself on several different wagons this game, which could be seen as setting himself up to be able to easily change his positions for scummy reasons.
But I don't see that as a massive difference in his meta from previous games. From reading his day 1 filters in liquid city and in gsl 3, the impression I get is that he often does something like this.
BUT - people, before you vote for z-boson, actually read his filters in those three games. I very much would like to hear from people who aren't BH or ZB what they think of BH's meta case.
I'm not convinced ZB is town. I think Marv made some good points, and BH's case is pretty persuasive for why z-boson is scum, if you agree with the way that BH characterizes those filters.
But for now my vote is staying right where it is.
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Man actually I reread some of the other stuff again. I'm really unsure about z-boson right now. If we can't lynch BH today maybe we should lynch him. The thing about "communication with town" from marv is kind of compelling; plus I really don't like that ZB kept using "I'm not scum because I vote Hapa" as a point in his defense.
That doesn't mean anything:
- ZB's only chance to survive and make his time was to jump on the Hapa voteswitch
- if ZB hadn't done that, it would have been completely obvious that he didn't want Hapa to die, contrary to what he had been saying
- If ZB then flipped scum, Hapa would be the clear and obvious target for vig or lynching.
Like, that argument means even less from ZB than it does from BH, and it already means nothing from BH.
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On November 18 2012 01:42 debears wrote:
Snb your vote is on bh right?
that's right
I still want him dead
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On November 18 2012 08:37 Hopeless1der wrote:
We can't because Keir has modified the setup. Stop it.
this is wrong
keirathi said he didn't modify the probabilities
he only did one-for-one substitutions of some roles
so we can calculate the odds of shit
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EPT
