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strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
November 21 2012 13:40 GMT
#3587
On November 21 2012 22:34 Djodref wrote:
Show nested quote +
+ Show Spoiler +
On November 17 2012 06:36 strongandbig wrote:
this post took me like more than half an hour to write so yall best actually read it.

I go through my filter and look at stuff.

On November 13 2012 10:01 strongandbig wrote:
if zb was scum he would have made a much longer post

##vote: hapahauli

im down with that iamperfection thinkamajig


this post makes me look bad. this would be a good argument for me being scum. scum love to vote for their buddies early.

In reality, I just thought iamperfection's argument seemed kinda good about the weirdness of Hapahauli's first vote/minicase/whatever-thing.



<big snip>



On November 13 2012 21:57 strongandbig wrote:
yo marv you're gonna have to edit out that post about the kenpachi rule

debears is scum tho




in other developments: seriously, I wasn't really thinking too hard about what I posted last night. Believe me or not, I didn't intend to "claim VT" when I made the post in question.

I'm going in to work in a couple hours, I'll read over the thread more carefully. However, here's my unfiltered thoughts atm
marv: i hate trying to read marv, apparently someone caught him on meta analysis a game or two ago so I'll have to look that up but it's so much easier just radfielding him
bh: thinks i'm town therefore my first reaction is to think he's town lol. i like his case on zboson though.
hapa: scummiest of the actual good players in the thread atm

more reading time

here's another post that makes me look bad for a real reason. Randomly throwing suspicion on hapa without providing any reasons. Looks like I'm setting myself up for good distancing in case he flips before me, but doesn't actually create any danger for him.

The actual reasoning that led me to write that line was pretty simple. Hapa's posting just wasn't very good. There was the early thing iamperfection caught, and the stupid post of Hapa's attacking me for "not sharing any information about my reads" or whatever (it's above in the section where I call things stupid). And in general, I expect Hapa to be pretty aggressive and frequently wrong, but to do so in a headstrong and confident way with fewer obvious logical flaws. However, I kind of let up on him later when he started emulating his town posting better, like the following post:
On November 14 2012 03:56 strongandbig wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 14 2012 02:31 Hapahauli wrote:
Catching up on my lunch break.



Regarding SnB

##Unvote

After sleeping on it, I'm starting to agree that his play is too far of a deviation from his normal scum play to be scummy. I don't know what he's thinking, but it's much more reckless of a playstyle than I'd expect of scum SnB.

(FWIW, the fact that he's continuing this behavior into today makes me think he's an SK or something. It falls into that "townie but really off" type of play that's common with 3rd party roles.)



On November 13 2012 17:42 Clarity_nl wrote:
Hapa, this still bothers me.
I asked you what you thought about SnB's claim and if you thought it was bad for town, and you answered:
On November 13 2012 10:12 Hapahauli wrote:
@ Clarity

Well in a theoretical sense yes, but you remember how well that worked with Cheesecake in Newbie XXX right? It's really not that significant IMO.


You compared this to Cheese's claim from NMM XXX even though the situations are completely different.
The only reason Cheese claimed was because he thought only VT's knew the VT flavor. So he was trying to claim without alerting scum. SnB just outright claimed VT.

After I explain why it's different, you basically give me the same answer:
On November 13 2012 10:25 Hapahauli wrote:
On November 13 2012 10:14 Clarity_nl wrote:
It's not like he flavor claimed, thinking others didn't know the flavor. How are those situations alike?
You don't think it's a weird move for a VT to claim VT day 1?


No I don't find it weird. I think it's just a pointless comment that can be made by either alignment. Again, see Mr. Cheesecake's "odd" VT claim time in the Newbie game.

Him trusting Z-Bo's claim so up-front is a bit strange, but again, I don't know if it's just bad logic or scum knowing who's who.

I haven't seen anything alignment indicative from him yet.


The other thing I don't really like is the use of "theoretically yes" and "IMO"
Whenever I've seen you post you tend to be direct and with conviction, but not this time.


I still believe both situations to be the same - they are both strangely timed VT claims. Cheese's intent to "signal" other townies isn't a significant difference, as both potentially fall into the category of "scum wanting to look less suspicious despite not being suspicious." The situations are not identical by any means, but they're more similar than not.

Regardless, I'm not suspicious of SnB anymore so I don't want to dwell on this.



Regarding the Z-Boson Case

I really disagree with it. The case is a giant anecdote for how Z-Boson's actions could be scummy rather than why they're scummy.

ZB is setting up to look good as a wagon starter (since scum don't like to stick their necks out) and appear to contribute to town, but if you read his astonishingly short filter, it's clear he's not actually helping. He's flinging shit at the wall and hoping it sticks.


All of this isn't valid at all hours into D1. All of the stuff described above is completely non-alignment indicative in the early game.

Z-Boson has been less active than I'm used to seeing him, but again early D1 caveats. No reason to vote him.



Regarding iamperfection

His sudden flip-flop on Z-Boson is really strange. He goes from strongly trusting Z-Bo's claim early in the game to a vote for really shitty reasons.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=381440&currentpage=22#434
In his vote post, he first picks a fight with BH - odd considering that he's ultimately going to agree with his read. He puts a lot of stock into one of Z-Bo's early D1 postings and early-game banter (meaningless). He then talks about the "iamperfection rule" and another early D1 wishy-washy post.

I wouldn't mind this if it weren't for his discussion about the miller claim:
I know i said early on that i thought the miller claim was more of a town tell but well i think zbos actions speak louder.


WHAT?!?!? Iamperfection had almost no doubt about Z-Bo's motives, and he's willing to do a complete 180 with the above reasoning. Just take a look at his previous stance, made right after Z-Bo's claim:
On November 13 2012 09:45 iamperfection wrote:
i guess theirs no reason not to believe zbos right? has to be to risky to do if he was scum right.


He immediately trusted Z-Boson without question the second Z-Bo made that claim. Then all of a sudden now he turns around and can doubt the claim he so strongly believed in earlier. It makes no sense to me, and it looks like scum jumping on someone the second they have the reason to. This would be fine if he had a good case, but he just hinges on a couple of early D1 posts and the "iamperfection" rule as opposed to anything substantial.

It doesn't help that the rest of his filter reads really artificially confrontational to me. It feels like he's trying to overcompensate for being caught in GSL III for not showing his "bravado" throughout the game.

##Vote iamperfection

this is much more like what i expect out of hapahauli, i guess it just took a little while for him to get into character.

that said his case is pretty bad for reasons i explained above



One last thing:
On November 14 2012 03:52 strongandbig wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 14 2012 03:27 debears wrote:
.......

Ok reasoning to switch from insta town read to scum read....

When I get back to my comp I will relook at it. I didnt come to the same conclusion


but look at the reasoning for his town read, it was also terrible. it was a visceral (no eyes) reaction, the first thing to come out of his gut, just like "oh i guess zboson is town" was the first thing to come out of my gut when he posted it.

So he changes from a weak, gut-reaction-based townread to a scum read. It's not like he was hard defending zboson or even really thinking about it in a way that we should be super concerned about, he was just pooping ideas out onto the thread.

this is where I explain why hapahauli's case was bad. it was the same case, it was still bad.


@ S&B

Why did you go dig into your own filter the most incriminating posts against you ? Why did you include them with other points regarding the Kenpachi rule and what your play was about during D1 ?
Could you explain your motivation for it ?


why the hell wouldn't I?

so actually, there's a couple of reasons. If I point them out, explain why they're suspicious or incriminating, and also explain where they came from in terms of my mindset and motivations, I can do a better job of persuading people that I'm not scum than I could if someone else pointed them out first and put their own spin on it. That's the "political" aspect of analysis, it's always better to define yourself. That's an argument for doing this in any self-defense, regardless of your alignment.

The second reason is that it creates a sort of "intentional vulnerability" in my case. If I go through my filter pointing out and explaining which posts I see as the best reasons to suspect me, they had god damned better be the scummiest posts in my filter. If I do that selectively, and highlight and explain some suspicious posts but ignore others, then my defense goes from being "an honest and open attempt to explain and clarify my filter" to being "misdirection, attempting to get people to focus on the scummy stuff in my filter that I do have a good explanation for, and to get them to ignore the scummy stuff that I don't have a good explanation for." So that's the argument in favor of doing this type of self-analysis when you're a townie under suspicion, and that makes it super risky to do if you're actually scum under suspicion.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
November 21 2012 13:47 GMT
#3589
So in light of my recently deciding to live, let me ask a framing question

Does it look to anyone else like DP and Djo are setting up for an endgame 1v1? I mean, like they're assuming I'll get lynched and then they'll have to argue which of the two of them is the last lynch?

I suppose this is possible if the two of them are both townies who have town reads on me. But it also makes sense for scum to be doing right now, since he'll presumably have to face a M/LYLO with iamperfection and/or kickstarter who both have really good town cred right now.

So how do we decide if it's "they're both townies who have town reads on me" versus "one of them is a townie with a town read on me, and one of them is scum"? Personally, I would put a lot of weight on the fact that djodref has been saying I'm one of his top scum reads for pretty much the entire game, but now he seems to be assuming that he needs to deal with a 1v1 vs darthpunk at L/MYLO.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
November 21 2012 13:49 GMT
#3590
On November 21 2012 22:42 Djodref wrote:
@ S&B

We still have 2 confirmed townies at the moment. When are you going to be available during this mafia night ?


in a word: intermittently. It depends on work.

Djodref: right now, do you think I'm scum, and why?

If it's because I've been more active when I'm under pressure, which seems to be the popular reason these days, can you tell me why that is a characteristic trait of scum and not of town, especially in the light of my town philosophy which I've posted above (and which I've consistently advocated across many games) ?
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
November 21 2012 14:04 GMT
#3592
On November 21 2012 22:56 Djodref wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 21 2012 22:40 strongandbig wrote:
On November 21 2012 22:34 Djodref wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On November 17 2012 06:36 strongandbig wrote:
this post took me like more than half an hour to write so yall best actually read it.

I go through my filter and look at stuff.

On November 13 2012 10:01 strongandbig wrote:
if zb was scum he would have made a much longer post

##vote: hapahauli

im down with that iamperfection thinkamajig


this post makes me look bad. this would be a good argument for me being scum. scum love to vote for their buddies early.

In reality, I just thought iamperfection's argument seemed kinda good about the weirdness of Hapahauli's first vote/minicase/whatever-thing.



<big snip>



On November 13 2012 21:57 strongandbig wrote:
yo marv you're gonna have to edit out that post about the kenpachi rule

debears is scum tho




in other developments: seriously, I wasn't really thinking too hard about what I posted last night. Believe me or not, I didn't intend to "claim VT" when I made the post in question.

I'm going in to work in a couple hours, I'll read over the thread more carefully. However, here's my unfiltered thoughts atm
marv: i hate trying to read marv, apparently someone caught him on meta analysis a game or two ago so I'll have to look that up but it's so much easier just radfielding him
bh: thinks i'm town therefore my first reaction is to think he's town lol. i like his case on zboson though.
hapa: scummiest of the actual good players in the thread atm

more reading time

here's another post that makes me look bad for a real reason. Randomly throwing suspicion on hapa without providing any reasons. Looks like I'm setting myself up for good distancing in case he flips before me, but doesn't actually create any danger for him.

The actual reasoning that led me to write that line was pretty simple. Hapa's posting just wasn't very good. There was the early thing iamperfection caught, and the stupid post of Hapa's attacking me for "not sharing any information about my reads" or whatever (it's above in the section where I call things stupid). And in general, I expect Hapa to be pretty aggressive and frequently wrong, but to do so in a headstrong and confident way with fewer obvious logical flaws. However, I kind of let up on him later when he started emulating his town posting better, like the following post:
On November 14 2012 03:56 strongandbig wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 14 2012 02:31 Hapahauli wrote:
Catching up on my lunch break.



Regarding SnB

##Unvote

After sleeping on it, I'm starting to agree that his play is too far of a deviation from his normal scum play to be scummy. I don't know what he's thinking, but it's much more reckless of a playstyle than I'd expect of scum SnB.

(FWIW, the fact that he's continuing this behavior into today makes me think he's an SK or something. It falls into that "townie but really off" type of play that's common with 3rd party roles.)



On November 13 2012 17:42 Clarity_nl wrote:
Hapa, this still bothers me.
I asked you what you thought about SnB's claim and if you thought it was bad for town, and you answered:
On November 13 2012 10:12 Hapahauli wrote:
@ Clarity

Well in a theoretical sense yes, but you remember how well that worked with Cheesecake in Newbie XXX right? It's really not that significant IMO.


You compared this to Cheese's claim from NMM XXX even though the situations are completely different.
The only reason Cheese claimed was because he thought only VT's knew the VT flavor. So he was trying to claim without alerting scum. SnB just outright claimed VT.

After I explain why it's different, you basically give me the same answer:
On November 13 2012 10:25 Hapahauli wrote:
On November 13 2012 10:14 Clarity_nl wrote:
It's not like he flavor claimed, thinking others didn't know the flavor. How are those situations alike?
You don't think it's a weird move for a VT to claim VT day 1?


No I don't find it weird. I think it's just a pointless comment that can be made by either alignment. Again, see Mr. Cheesecake's "odd" VT claim time in the Newbie game.

Him trusting Z-Bo's claim so up-front is a bit strange, but again, I don't know if it's just bad logic or scum knowing who's who.

I haven't seen anything alignment indicative from him yet.


The other thing I don't really like is the use of "theoretically yes" and "IMO"
Whenever I've seen you post you tend to be direct and with conviction, but not this time.


I still believe both situations to be the same - they are both strangely timed VT claims. Cheese's intent to "signal" other townies isn't a significant difference, as both potentially fall into the category of "scum wanting to look less suspicious despite not being suspicious." The situations are not identical by any means, but they're more similar than not.

Regardless, I'm not suspicious of SnB anymore so I don't want to dwell on this.



Regarding the Z-Boson Case

I really disagree with it. The case is a giant anecdote for how Z-Boson's actions could be scummy rather than why they're scummy.

ZB is setting up to look good as a wagon starter (since scum don't like to stick their necks out) and appear to contribute to town, but if you read his astonishingly short filter, it's clear he's not actually helping. He's flinging shit at the wall and hoping it sticks.


All of this isn't valid at all hours into D1. All of the stuff described above is completely non-alignment indicative in the early game.

Z-Boson has been less active than I'm used to seeing him, but again early D1 caveats. No reason to vote him.



Regarding iamperfection

His sudden flip-flop on Z-Boson is really strange. He goes from strongly trusting Z-Bo's claim early in the game to a vote for really shitty reasons.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=381440&currentpage=22#434
In his vote post, he first picks a fight with BH - odd considering that he's ultimately going to agree with his read. He puts a lot of stock into one of Z-Bo's early D1 postings and early-game banter (meaningless). He then talks about the "iamperfection rule" and another early D1 wishy-washy post.

I wouldn't mind this if it weren't for his discussion about the miller claim:
I know i said early on that i thought the miller claim was more of a town tell but well i think zbos actions speak louder.


WHAT?!?!? Iamperfection had almost no doubt about Z-Bo's motives, and he's willing to do a complete 180 with the above reasoning. Just take a look at his previous stance, made right after Z-Bo's claim:
On November 13 2012 09:45 iamperfection wrote:
i guess theirs no reason not to believe zbos right? has to be to risky to do if he was scum right.


He immediately trusted Z-Boson without question the second Z-Bo made that claim. Then all of a sudden now he turns around and can doubt the claim he so strongly believed in earlier. It makes no sense to me, and it looks like scum jumping on someone the second they have the reason to. This would be fine if he had a good case, but he just hinges on a couple of early D1 posts and the "iamperfection" rule as opposed to anything substantial.

It doesn't help that the rest of his filter reads really artificially confrontational to me. It feels like he's trying to overcompensate for being caught in GSL III for not showing his "bravado" throughout the game.

##Vote iamperfection

this is much more like what i expect out of hapahauli, i guess it just took a little while for him to get into character.

that said his case is pretty bad for reasons i explained above



One last thing:
On November 14 2012 03:52 strongandbig wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 14 2012 03:27 debears wrote:
.......

Ok reasoning to switch from insta town read to scum read....

When I get back to my comp I will relook at it. I didnt come to the same conclusion


but look at the reasoning for his town read, it was also terrible. it was a visceral (no eyes) reaction, the first thing to come out of his gut, just like "oh i guess zboson is town" was the first thing to come out of my gut when he posted it.

So he changes from a weak, gut-reaction-based townread to a scum read. It's not like he was hard defending zboson or even really thinking about it in a way that we should be super concerned about, he was just pooping ideas out onto the thread.

this is where I explain why hapahauli's case was bad. it was the same case, it was still bad.


@ S&B

Why did you go dig into your own filter the most incriminating posts against you ? Why did you include them with other points regarding the Kenpachi rule and what your play was about during D1 ?
Could you explain your motivation for it ?


why the hell wouldn't I?

so actually, there's a couple of reasons. If I point them out, explain why they're suspicious or incriminating, and also explain where they came from in terms of my mindset and motivations, I can do a better job of persuading people that I'm not scum than I could if someone else pointed them out first and put their own spin on it. That's the "political" aspect of analysis, it's always better to define yourself. That's an argument for doing this in any self-defense, regardless of your alignment.

The second reason is that it creates a sort of "intentional vulnerability" in my case. If I go through my filter pointing out and explaining which posts I see as the best reasons to suspect me, they had god damned better be the scummiest posts in my filter. If I do that selectively, and highlight and explain some suspicious posts but ignore others, then my defense goes from being "an honest and open attempt to explain and clarify my filter" to being "misdirection, attempting to get people to focus on the scummy stuff in my filter that I do have a good explanation for, and to get them to ignore the scummy stuff that I don't have a good explanation for." So that's the argument in favor of doing this type of self-analysis when you're a townie under suspicion, and that makes it super risky to do if you're actually scum under suspicion.


@ S&B

So, if I had noticed these posts as being the most incriminating against you while skimming your filter, and then realized that you had preemptively given your reasons to post these, I should conclude that your self-introspection was honest ?
"Big plays"
That's risky and ballsy play, regardless of your alignment.
I don't understand the town motivation for it...
Wouldn't it be better to see if people are actually going to go after you for what could be really incriminating or just silly reasons ? You could tell the difference on who is going to push a mislynch and who is honestly going after you.
Here, if you are town, you are just giving ammo to both town and mafia against you. The only good thing is that you already gave your answer for it, but you that something you should do for both alignment.

The interactions you had with Hapa, especially when you call him scummiest out of the blue, that doesn't look good. Didn't you reproach the same kind of thing to Clarity in your case against him ?


my case on clarity wasn't just "that he was posting fluff" or "that he wasn't giving good reasons," it was that in his filter I got a consistent overall impression that he was doing things which would make him look townie without actually helping the town. It was based on my perception that he was being deceptive.

Clearly, since he flipped town, I was wrong.

But I don't think my case on him applies to me. It's true that I didn't actually help the town much during the first day, although as I explained, I think I was doing more than purely trolling (at least, in terms of my thought process). But I definitely wasn't trying to create a town-looking thread persona or deceive people into thinking that I was town.

"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
November 21 2012 15:05 GMT
#3600
On November 21 2012 23:54 Hopeless1der wrote:
I'd just like to apologize for turning back into a lurker. I'm sure that's pissed some people off given that I'm pretty much confirmed town and doing nothing more to help.

I wholeheartedly would vouch for iamperfection being town this game. But he is the only player 'eligible' for lynch that I am that confident in. I'm going to re-read all of day1 in as much context as I can before the deadline and hopefully have some concrete reads on who is still alive.


please reread my two defense posts before you make up your mind based only on day 1. I've admitted my day 1 was pretty bad but I don't think that alone should determine your read on me at this point.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-11-22 16:31:15
November 22 2012 16:29 GMT
#3744
* * G. G.
* * * *L
* * *\__/




stupid tl whitespace mumble grumble
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
November 22 2012 21:39 GMT
#3768
On November 23 2012 06:24 Clarity_nl wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 23 2012 06:21 Hopeless1der wrote:
On November 23 2012 06:18 Clarity_nl wrote:
it's because I was spamming and being useless, obviously.

It was more that you could have been more useful to me. You never seemed to get anywhere with your questioning playstyle. You also don't PUSH your reads, and I found that scummy. Yes, your reads were known, but I didn't feel like you were really trying to convince anyone you were right, you were just going through the motions of making a case.


Okay so let's take my case on snb for example. I make the case, no one disagrees, I move on.
I let the case speak for me, if my case is good I won't need to spam X IS SCUM OMG

As for the questioning stuff, it all came together in my list of reads posts.

I can definitely see your point though.


nah this just doesn't work

if you have a scum read you're pretty confident in, you have to herd the town like cats. You have to keep pushing people to really think about your case. That's like the biggest difference between decent town players and really good town players. everyone is right sometimes and wrong sometimes but the really good players get the lynch when they're right.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
November 22 2012 21:40 GMT
#3769
one thing though, I was all like "?" after dp started going after me instead of djo, despite having really talked a lot about his townread on me.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
November 22 2012 21:53 GMT
#3775
<------- didn't get lynched



#swag
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
November 29 2012 13:18 GMT
#3956
BH, I strongly disagree. I think there needs to be a stronger norm against using people's irl time constraints or their decisions about what to do with their own free time against them, it restricts who can play mafia games unnecessarily and it makes the game more like a duty than a game. My solution to this is a personal honor system, I treat other people's excuses as legitimate and I expect them to treat mine the same way.

Actually, I think this is much more in the spirit of mafia than what you suggest. Mafia how we play it is supposed to be about behavioral analysis and interpretation, and it should be limited to what goes on in the thread. Basically, in my opinion when someone starts calling me out about inactivity that was caused by other time commitments, they're the one who is bringing outside-the-game stuff into the game, and my reacting to prove my honesty is more legitimate than what they did.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
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