EPTMario Mini Mafia - Page 10
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
On November 20 2012 07:03 Hopeless1der wrote: SnB, did you read through all 5 other players at all? How did you conclude that clarity was the scummiest? when the game is this long reading through a filter takes a lot of time. i decided clarity would be first priority because he's the only z-boson voter from day 1 who is still alive and not me. darthpunk is my second highest priority, we gave him a lot of leeway on day 1 because he was focusing on winning his other game but i'm not sure if his posting has really changed since then, if i can scrape some time together i'd like to take a close look at his filter. looking at clarity took pretty long because of the large volume of posts | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
then gone for a while then back I like that darthpunk actually did something, that was refreshing. and it looks like the aggro darthpunk i remember from back when. I don't have enough time to read one of you monster-filter-ers so I decided I'm going to give kickstart a close look and see what comes up | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
there's no way that a super nub starts out day 1 of like his first game with a mongo bus his stuff about hapa sounds genuine still i'm only part way through so let's see what it looks like when the chaos begins | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
On November 15 2012 10:32 Kickstart wrote: Well sheeeeet. Seems we can't get enough votes onto hopeless, who out of the ~4 people who are getting all the votes at the moment is who I would really go for. I DO NOT want to vote ZB, so time to vote DarthPunk. ## unvote ##vote: DarthPunk this logic is fine, even though the reasons for lynching zb at the time were better than the reasons for lynching dp, he was willing to go out on a limb to defend his townread, that's good On November 15 2012 10:57 Kickstart wrote: what a shitstorm this is ## Unvote ## Vote hapa oh i guess this is the chaos going down okay that was too quick I'll do someone longer next. conclusion: it's true that kickstart really hasn't been engaged as much after day 1, but I really don't see his day 1 coming from scum. | ||
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strongandbig
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strongandbig
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here's what I don't like: - his early list post. he said he was willing to vote for me due to my d1 play, but didn't give any reason beyond that - just gliding along with town sentiment. On November 16 2012 13:20 Djodref wrote: Let me start with some quick post about my town reads. Hopeless is as close as possible to be a confirmed vig. I have played with him in Looney and I don't feel him being very different from the town Hopeless I know. His breadcrumbs make sense and I don't see the SK wanting to shot one more scummy player after bowser lynch on D1. Town reads on zbo and DP confirmed by the fact that they were likely to be mislynches pushed by the mafia. Slight town reads on Clarity and debears because I know them both quite well and I didn't get bad vibes from their posts so far. Newbie town read on Kickstart. I didn’t look into his filter much because. So I usually get good reads on newbies I don't like this post. There was no need to give a list of town reads, especially not right when he jumped into the game. On November 16 2012 13:25 Djodref wrote: I want to lynch BH because he is not showing town behavior at all. Trolly and disruptive, fakeclaiming, backing off and claiming again. I understand it's unlikely to display such play as scum but it would be the same from a JK. I have to look again at S&B again though... Anyway I don't see how we can loose this game now so I would almost expect the last scum to concede now. I just don't like this post, but I'm having a hard time explaining why it's different from the reasons why I wanted to lynch BH. I think it's because my reasons for lynching BH involved an explanation of how and why he would be doing this stuff as scum, whereas djo's was more like "this doesn't make sense let's kill it." On November 17 2012 04:20 Djodref wrote: So, if BH is the third scum, he is the role blocker and he was basically exposing himself to a rightful counterclaim from a possible JK at 42%... It's quite a risk to take. I still don't like BH play at all but I understand better why we shouldn't lynch him today. I hope someone else find the setup speculation interesting ^^ ## Unvote this logic is quite bad, since it assumes BH would have thought about the odds before fakeclaiming. know thy enemy young padawan. Stuff I do like On November 17 2012 14:41 Djodref wrote: Yeah, you're right about the SK thing, I didn't think it through. But let's take a look again at your claim. It was halfway through D1 and you must have felt some pressure to claim, regardless of your alignment. Town motivations
Mafia motivations(you are the roleblocker in this case)
What I don't like at all is the follow-up you give to your claim. As S&B pointed it out, you keep on saying how uncontested your claim is and you lynched Hapa when it was not sure at all that you were going to lynch him. I'm not wasting my time, I want people to understand that you are scummy despite the circumstances ! this post seems like a reasonable step to re-evaluate what he was doing with BH. On November 19 2012 12:37 Djodref wrote: Anyway, a zero T setup would have less than 1% chance to get rolled at the beginning in a classic C9++ game and the probability is even lower with Keir generator because the one-shot roles are replaced by Ts. I wanted S&B to say this to me. I don't understand how S&B can have his vote on BH right now given the info we have. MVCCDTT makes more sense, in term of probability and in term of play. Your logic is fallacious right now S&B. Explain me how you can conclude that voting BH is still a good move now and I might unvote you. ##Vote S&B given how we were talking about the setup before, this is a reasonable reason for voting me (although he should unvote me now that I'm not voting for bh anymore) Stuff I don't dislike in djo's filter. - The setup speculation. Like, I don't think setup speculation is as bad as all of you guys seem to. In a semi-open setup where some information actually is known about the possibilities, it's an important tool for the town to use. It's not really "setup speculation" in the same way as you see it in themed games, where someone's like "wow x power would be so imba without y counter, y must be on the scum team" or whatever. In a setup like this it's more like "setup extrapolation" than speculation. - The so-called tunneling on BH. There were totally valid reasons to be voting and pursuing BH, and when I read the stuff in djo's filter about BH I get an impression of someone who is very reluctant to change their position but eventually does so for genuine reasons. Conclusion: The "stuff I don't like" outweighs the "Stuff I do like" here. I especially don't like the two list posts, both because they're list posts without much thought and for more specific reasons (one was only town reads, one gave un-reasoned scum reads that kind of just fit in with town sentiment at the time). But I don't get the same impression of overall "scum motivation" when I read his filter that I do when I read Clarity's filter. I can't say that I have a "town read" on djo but I strongly prefer lynching Clarity first. | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
On November 21 2012 01:15 strongandbig wrote: oh wow actually this is going to be really easy there's no way that a super nub starts out day 1 of like his first game with a mongo bus his stuff about hapa sounds genuine still i'm only part way through so let's see what it looks like when the chaos begins btw "super nub" isn't meant as an insult just a descriptor for an inexperienced player | ||
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strongandbig
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yeah but I have to go do work now, ttyl | ||
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strongandbig
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if you guys want to lynch me so i can go play chrono trigger, i won't mind clarity is the scum tho | ||
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strongandbig
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On November 21 2012 08:21 Hopeless1der wrote: You'll play both games and you'll like it. q__Q | ||
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strongandbig
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On November 21 2012 08:24 Blazinghand wrote: SnB as much as I hate to say it I kinda don't want to lynch you any more today  You've generally been interacting with iamp as though he's a townie. Do you agree with my assessment of his play this game? I've enjoyed your town-read on kickstart, he definitely shouldn't be lynched. If we can nail down 3 town-reads, we win. i've had a town feeling about him but I don't really have a good reason for it, other than the hapahauli lynch and just his general sort of attitude. He's experienced enough to maybe bus in that position, so I don't really feel like he's super clearly town, but I'm comfortable enough with him to want to focus on other people | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
On November 21 2012 09:31 Clarity_nl wrote: I think people's issue with an snb lynch might be too "it's too easy". Which is a terrible way of thinking. pretty sure hte problem is that i'm town not that it's an easy lynch | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
On November 21 2012 09:33 Blazinghand wrote: so Kickstart here's what I suspect will happen over the course of these cycles, assuming we only mislynch: Today: lynch one from SnB+Clarity+Djo+DP Tonight: I'm shot Tomorrow: lynch one more from SnB+Clarity+Djo+DP Tomorrow night: Hopeless is shot Final day: Kickstart, Iamperfection, and the last 2 from the 4 scummy players are alive-- 3 town, 1 scum. Assuming we only mislynch until MYLO, we'll have a MYLO with you, iamp, and probably Djo+DP. I'm very sure scum will be shooting me and hopeless tonight and tomorrow night (though maybe not in that order). So we have 3 lynches into 4 players to find 1 scum. Any town or scum reads within those 4 will help us narrow it down. or we could just lynch clarity and win right now | ||
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strongandbig
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this guy (bh amidoingitrite yet?) | ||
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strongandbig
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On November 21 2012 09:48 Blazinghand wrote: So I'm about to cast my vote then I'm busy for about 2 hours. I'm voting for SnB or clarity, last chance to say something "blah blah townies f5 thread blah blah scummy blah" | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
On November 21 2012 09:48 Blazinghand wrote: So I'm about to cast my vote then I'm busy for about 2 hours. I'm voting for SnB or clarity, last chance to say something but actually: vote clefairy 2012 for scum! | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
On November 21 2012 09:53 Blazinghand wrote: Alright, well, I gotta run. Clarity I don't like how you acted towards hapa and crossfire. If you flip town, I'm sorry. But it's not over if you do. And honestly you're much more wily than Djo, DP, or SnB so between you and SnB I need to lynch you while I'm still alive. You might talk your way out of it after I'm dead. ##vote: Clarity_nl may the lord have mercy upon our souls idk man dp is pretty wily also ouch | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
This game kind of made me think about my townie philosophy a little bit. I've always believed that a townie's first duty is to keep from being mislynched, that doing your best to not be mislynched (whether it's by being self-evidently townie or by finding the real scum) is like the minimum and central core of town behavior. But this game, there's so much against me (my day 1 behavior, inexplicable town sentiment, and basically everyone having taken a stance that I'm scum at one point or another, making it easy for people to go after me without being inconsistent) that I worried about that. If I survive to MYLO, I would almost certainly be an easy target for a mislynch, giving scum the win. So I thought, maybe I should just give up, not try to defend myself today, not try to push cases on other people, just try to set up town to be better at LYLO. But now that I've thought about it, I've concluded that is definitely not true. Even if I accept that one of our two remaining lynches will be wasted on me, and we only have one real lynch to find scum. It's better that we use that one real lynch now, rather than wait until LYLO. There's a bunch of reasons for this. For one, nothing is pre-ordained - maybe, if I live to (M/L)YLO, by some long shot chance I'll be able to save the day and persuade the townyie(s) not to lynch me. But more importantly, if we only have one lynch to find the real scum, it's better to use it now while we still have at least one confirmed townie. A confirmed townie isn't just an asset because you can cross them off the suspect list. A confirmed townie is a source of reasoning and analysis that all the other townies know they can trust. In my opinion, having a confirmed townie around late in the game is very helpful in terms of sorting between good and bad cases, and organizing the town so they have the best chance to actually lynch scum. So rest assured, I will continue to do my best to make up for how I started this game and to not get mislynched, today or ever. | ||
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