| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
On October 27 2012 07:37 debears wrote: Awwww man why is this starting so soon :/ Can't do a newbie, MLP, and this  Guess you'll just have to drop out of MLP and have a replacement take your place. This has nothing to do with the fact that I'm the first replacement. | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
I shan't be modkilled! | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
About Release: I don't think he's scum. He seems too involved and sincere to be scum. He might not say the best things at all times, but so far I have a slight town read on him. In any case, we seem to have moved passed him for the most part today. As for Muso and Acrofales... this is an awkward situation. If there's only one mason pair (which looks to be most likely), I'm inclined to believe Acrofales over Muso. I find it more likely that Muso fakeclaimed mason before there were any claims, than Acrofales fakeclaiming mason after there was already a claim. ##Vote Muso | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
On November 02 2012 09:37 Muso wrote: Okay. I take full responsibility for this situation. Admittedly, I didn't make any attempt to assess the experience levels of anybody here before I started this game, so this is undoubtedly my fault. 1) However, I banked on Acro and his teammate figuring this out instead of coming out and counter-claiming me. Pretty much everybody in the game determined the following: 1. this is a suicide play as scum 2. it is extremely unlikely there were 2 mason teams, Unfortunately, the masons didn't make the next leap in the puzzle, and think outside the box to figure out WHY? Fair enough, I'm not blaming you. I am Kid Watching TV, aka a vanilla. 2)The point of the gambit should be obvious now. 1) So your claim is that you were hoping the scum would assume you're telling the truth, and hoping the real masons, if they even existed, would know you're not a newbie scum. Even though you made it clear that you are a new player... What was your ultimate goal? 2) It's blatantly obvious why scum would claim mason (though risky in the event of another mason team actually existing). It's much less obvious why a townie would do so. I want to see what the "point of the gambit" was, but the way it stands, all you did is force one of our masons to claim. I... don't know what to think about this. It feels like a really noobish mistake that either town or scum could make. I see more motivation for scum, but for some reason I think he's more likely to be town... ##Unvote Muso I don't really know who I want to lynch after him, though. I'll give more thought to it when I get home later. | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
I don't feel like voting for Muso. I actually have a slight town read on him. I really wouldn't mind a vig shot on him, though. There's a lot of mystery around him, and he's going to be on my mind for the rest of the game after this D1. A vig would save us the worry. Looking through Draz's filter, I'm not really liking what I'm seeing. Most of his posts are one-liners that don't even really contribute to scumhunting. His posts seem like a lot of riling people up instead of true scumhunting. Then he gives himself an out for the rest of D1 by saying that it's too crazy to deal with and that he'll have better reads after the night post. Well of course he will - we should all have better reads after a flip. I think he has the best chance of flipping scum so far. ##Vote drazak | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
I'm TNT. See, I can do it too. + Show Spoiler + Yes, this is a lie. | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
On November 03 2012 06:21 kushm4sta wrote: I don't find you or your predecessor particularly scummy. Also even if I wanted to lynch you I don't think realistically you have a possibility of getting lynched today. Buy my flavor theory or not. I'm going to vote for the bandwagon that I think has the best chance of flipping red. that is muso right now even tho I think he's probably town. Wut? | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
I'm feeling less and less sure of a drazak lynch since he's returned... And as much as I hate to admit it, kush's flavor theory is swaying me a bit. However, I don't know who I would vote for out of everyone else in the game. I think I'm being too liberal with town reads this game... In any case, it looks like muso is likely going to be lynched with or without me, and drazak is less and less likely to be lynched. ##Unvote ##Vote Muso Ahhh, yet another wishy-washy D1 vote for fuba... | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
I actually have town vibes from Prome. I also never felt too convinced of prplhz's scumminess. Really gotta go now~ | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
On November 04 2012 09:00 DarthPunk wrote: So unless a vig claims I am going to assume we have a serial killer. I felt like Release was getting at something, but now I'm not so sure. I'll be assuming the same, I suppose... | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
I'm terrible at hopping back into the thread. Is there anything in particular that you'd like me to comment on? If not I'll probably end up solo-analyzing filters and talking myself in circles, which doesn't help anyone XD | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
On November 04 2012 02:47 DarthPunk wrote:I have a scum read on drazak. He has posted mainly one liners commenting on the by play of proceedings rather than bring any original thought or information to the thread. He has also been consistently wishy-washy in his posting. Like I was going to go through this post and bold the wishy-washy bits but then I may as well have bolded the entire post. Just read that and find one solid statement. Because I sure as hell can't. But note the part I have bolded and then read drazak's subsequent series of posts which stuck out to me quite starkly. He goes from wishy washy on kush. Saying he could be scummy. Then he posts his role name somewhat aggressively. After which kush thinks he is town based on his theory with the flavor immediatly after kush unvotes him and declares him to be town. Drazak posts his 'reads' First of all I hate lists such as these. They allow scum to seem to participate without actually doing anything. A few sentences on several players comprise drazak's 'reads' HOWEVER. Note the read on kush. He has gone from scummy and wishy-washy to 100% town meta. IMMEDIATELY after kush declares a town read on drazak. It seems as if Drazaks opinion of someones scumminess is linked to their opinion on draz. Now THAT is scummy to me. Combined with all the wishy-washy posting and fluff one liners. I would certainly like to lynch drazak. Snipped out the drazak portion. While I'm by no means certain of it (as I am rarely certain of anything), I'm back to thinking there's a strong chance that drazak will flip scum. I realized while considering this case that too often I immediately give people the benefit of the doubt. That being said, here's my analysis. Firstly, I don't see wishy-washiness as a very strong scum tell. This is because I am probably the wishy-washiest player who has ever played on TL and I've only rolled scum once. I understand that it is a scum tell for other people, but I just can't see it that way. That being said, the fact that drazak's read on kush seemed to change as a direct result of kush's read on drazak changing certainly feels scummy. I didn't feel a particular change in kush's play during that time. In addition, this recent post from him makes me feel like he thinks kush is scummy again, despite the fact that he said kush was 100% playing to his town meta: On November 04 2012 22:03 drazak wrote: so... we've got an sk for sure? No way that was a vig shot or something? Hey kush, why did you bluehunt so hard, I'm not cool with that. Finally, what DP said about the "list of reads" posts are what made me realize what makes me so wishy-washy. On that point I was reading drazak's posts as a townie trying to avoid a mislynch without equally considering that it was scum trying to avoid a legitimate lynch. Given that everything I've previously mentioned about drazak's play still holds true imo, he's my top scumread at the moment. @Drazak What made you switch from "kush looks kinda scummy" to "kush is playing 100% to his town meta"? And do you now think kush is playing scummy again? | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
One question: if there is an SK is it definitely mylo? Can't scum and SK kill each other? | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
I actually don't think I have three at the moment. Drazak is definitely one of them. I'm still waiting on a response from him. After reading your case against Release, which makes a lot of sense, he's back on the list. His immediate appearance in the thread, as you've pointed out, strengthens the case. I'd make him the second one. Third... I'm not sure. I'm going to look at Prome's D2 as a whole, instead of in individual posts to see if I see the same things Hope does. One thing that struck me as odd was when risk posted about Prome fake claiming being roleblocked, simply because the same thought occurred to me as well. I accepted Acro's claim immediately, but Prome's made me feel weird about him. I don't know why, but maybe my read through his D2 will give me some insight. Right now it's just a bad feeling accompanying my earlier town read. However, as Acro pointed out, it's easy to act town for a while to save yourself or your scumbuddies, but if you have to do it over an extended period of time you'll probably slip up somehow. Finally, my school's cdl team just roped me into streaming and casting our team's match in 45 minutes, so I have to get ready for that. I should be back in about... four hours at most. | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
@Acro: I have to be honest and say that Prome is escaping me. I don't know what to think about him. D1 he seemed really townish, and I feel like I have to force scummy motives for his D2 posts to make me see him as scum. I did get a "lie" feeling from his rb claim, but looking back I don't see a reason for it. My instinct is to find him town. Do you agree with Hopeless's recent post on him? If you do, could you point out a post or two where he is being active but not scumhunting? I think I have trouble discerning the difference. @Hopeless: Could you point out a post or two where Prome is being active but not scumhunting? @Prome: Regarding your earlier request of me, my vague read on you is above. My read on Acro is pretty strong town. Regarding your latest post, I agree that Draz is the best lynch today. Acro referring to your "scum buddy" doesn't seem scummy to me. If he said "scum buddies" instead then someone could say "how do you know there's more than one scumbuddy?!?" and it would be the same situation. I think it's kind of arbitrary. As far as the RB thing, I can't really think of a reason. I've mentioned above that it was probably just a weird feeling I had. I'm trying to ignore it. @Kush: You can see indecisiveness and inherent guilt in every one of my games here. You've basically described my meta perfectly. The difference in this case is that I don't have far more experienced players who understand my meta in this game to defend me from my own shortcomings. This means I have to explain it to those who haven't played with me before so that they don't jump down my throat for something that I've done in every game. You've essentially accused me of playing to my meta (I won't say town meta, since I don't even have a full scum game here) and being honest/transparent. It's actually a bit strange, because you've actually played with me before and should understand this. Oh, and what are your reasons for wanting to lynch hopeless? thrawn's recent post resonates with me pretty strongly regarding Release. After he returned, aside from the lurky re-entrance to the thread, I got the same feeling from him that I had earlier. He seems genuine and upfront. I'm back to leaning town for him. I feel like I've missed something I meant to talk about, but I can't keep my eyes open anymore. I'll see you guys in the morning. | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
I was just doing some reading, I had a flash of brilliance as I slept and remembered thinking that Fuba played a lot better than this when I last played with him. Looking back at my history I finally found the game he was in with me, NMM XXIII, in that game (both iterations of it, one in which he was scum and the other he was town) he played an active and interested game. He says now that there are always people defending him based on his scummy meta but I don't find that to be accurate. In NMM XXIII he did not appear scummy and played as if he cared. His behavior this game has been totally different and anti-town, while I don't know if Kush, Draz or Release can play a better game I am confidant that Fuba can. I was planning on putting a pressure vote on him to post his reads when I last posted but edited it out before I posted becasue I didn't feel that there was a real case on him. Now that I have looked back at him I am placing a real vote, no pressure intended, just looking at scum. That was my very first game, and I was genuinely more excited and able to participate than I am now. If anyone is going to look into NMM XXIII, keep in mind that the first half of my filter is scum mkfuba, and the second half is town mkfuba. And I didn't mean to imply that I had people defending me all the time, I simply meant that there were always people there that understood my meta and would be able to explain that I am wishy washy in all of my games (possibly excluding that one, I don't exactly remember). If someone would have called me out as wishy-washy, there would be marv, or hapa, or even blazinghand once to point out that I regularly play this way. In this game, I had to do it myself because I don't think anyone else would do it for me. And how often do you implicitly trust someone when they talk about their own scummy meta after being called out as scum? Not very often. For that reason, I explicitly stated how I felt and what was going on throughout the entire game. This is on page 11, where both Acro and Muso had claimed but well before we knew that either had fake claimed. What we see is that Fub is voting based on the fake claim of muso. As was everyone, note though that his reason is completely comprised of that one facet of muso's play. And now that it is confirmed that Muso fake claimed (the reason that Fuba voted him) Fuba unvotes him. There is literally no reason for town to change their read at this point, nothing about the situation has changed in Fuba's mind. Muso had fake claimed when Fuba first posted and he had Fake claimed when Fuba next posted, how did this change from a scum read to a town read? And, to the sentence I highlighted we see that Fuba has left himself totally open to vote switch back onto Muso to make this mislynch happen. Don't tell me what has or has not changed in my mind. You have no idea what kind of shit goes on in here. My mind changes between the time it takes to hit "enter" and the screen to refresh after I've posted. I may have mentioned that it takes me an eternity to read, analyze, and write up posts before. If I haven't, let this be the post that I can point back to in future games and say, "Yes, I have said that. It is at least part of how I play as town." The post you quoted probably took me at least 45 minutes to write. Over that time, I came to a few conclusions. When I say I talk myself in circles all the time, this is one example. I feel that the red numbering and skeptical manner in which I ask the questions indicate that I wasn't inclined to believe him. By the end of that 45 minutes, however, I had the time to think about it. As you bolded, I did see more potential scum motivation, but his explanation fit within the bounds of town reasoning. Sure, not typical TL reasoning, but from it I was ever-so-slightly leaning town on him. As for "leaving myself totally open to switch back onto Muso to make a mislynch happen", anyone who doesn't say that someone is 100% scum or town is open to switch on and off of them. Either way, that is where I stood. Your flavour theory is bunk and I am showing how bunk it is by saying that I am town. No, wait, I take it back, the lynch is close, haha lols totally swayed by it. Also don't mind how scummy I look, I always look scummy d1. ...sure. I implicitly state that I was lying in that post. If someone was swayed into thinking I was town because I wrote a fake name in bolded green text then that's something I won't apologize for. I really wouldn't expect that statement to sway anyone. I wanted to see if kush was really serious about his flavor theory. I know that that kind of analysis would lead to scum gaining more information than town, so I wanted to stop him from going much further (what better way for sk to get scum to shoot all the blues than to point out all the VTs in the thread and point scum in their direction?). That being said, I had reason to believe that he might have been on to something. My reason for switching off of Draz wasn't exclusively the flavor thing. It was his manner of posting at the time. As for me looking scummy D1: this game I was scummy enough to be shot D1, this post and this post speak to my wishi-washiness and adherence to my "feelings" while playing, particularly around the D1 lynch. Those are the main games that I think about when I consider my meta, probably because they're more recent than my newbie games and they're games against people that are more experienced than me, which always makes me edgy. Fuba follows this up with an out for the rest of the day until the lynch I don't even see how that's scummy. I told you a fact. If you want more information, I had a meeting at 5, it was 4:30, it takes about 10-15 minutes to walk there, I don't have the ID to access the internet in that location and would have to borrow a friend's, and it takes my laptop like 10 minutes to boot up because it's old and I don't take care of it. Believe me, I have plenty more "outs" I could have given myself, but instead I've at least tried to play as much as I could. Is it my best play? Absolutely not. Somehow I was better as a newbie than I have been in any of my other games. It could be my worst game, since there's no vig to shoot me. But it's still town me. and after that gives a town read on a player who is under a lot of pressure and could easily be a vig shot that night (me), if you assume that I am town this looks weird. While I think that I have been playing townie the most vocal players in this game disagree. I have a hard time seeing fuba having his own very different read when he jumped into this game late (see his first post) and had to leave well before lynch (see the last post I quoted). He also manages to give a very light town read on prp's play in the same place he gives me a by before jumping thread. I don't get how anyone did not see the scummyness in prp's play. As Marv said, in Your Clothes Give Them to Me, prp always seems scummy d1. Sorry I have a single thought independent of Acro. In almost all other matters I feel like I'm sheeping him, which is something I typically do with experienced players that I believe to be town (usually marv or hapa). I didn't find you scummy, so I didn't vote for you. You think that scum fuba was giving a town read on a townie so that when he flipped town he would look like a townie too? That would gain me nothing, and you know it. This entire point is irrelevant. Oh, and I gave a null read to prplhz. Next we get Fuba's return to thread: guys, I'm a newb, I'm bad, help me. Giving himself excuses and outs. This whole filter is scummy. After all this Fuba posts a whishy washy list in which everyone is called slightly town or he has a town read on, now though he agrees with Thrawn about Release. Remember when Fuba found Draz scummy enough to unvote Muso and vote draz? Yeah, neither does Fuba he hasn't managed to address his read on Draz again this cycle. Fuba is scum. Just stating facts, trying to get back into the game as soon as possible. I don't know how to just jump back into the game. I usually do it by asking a question, but then people later say, "After all of this discussion, this is all he had to say?!? A-ha! We've found ourselves some scum!" This time I decided to just ask what you guys wanted me to talk about. And sometimes excuses are legitimate. My friends needed a caster/streamer, and I was the only one available (it went awfully, btw). And the "wishy washy list" is a list of facts as I saw them. I had a town read on both you and Acro, but everyone's disagreeing about that so I went back and took another look (unfortunately inconclusive, but I can't do anything about that). And thrawn and kush were basically confirmed town, though it later occurred to me that there's a godfather and possibly an innocent sk, and also that I feel either of those roles could fit kush perfectly this game. And I didn't forget Draz. I asked him a question, and he returned to the thread while I was asleep. Not that actually pushing my scumreads is part of my meta either. I planned on doing that this game, but how do you pressure someone who's not here to respond to you? TL:DR False, false, and false (though the third point is consistent with my town meta).Fuba gives himself outs so that he doesn't have to post reads, unvotes Muso for the same reason he voted Muso and drops his scum read on Draz without any of his problems with Draz being addressed. Mkfuba is Scum and I will be voting for and pushing him today. Acro, since you are the only other active player I'd love your input (though I'm still not convinced that you are town). What you have is a case against town Fuba who has far less time on his hands than he was expecting, in a game where nothing has gone the way it has in the past. And while lynching me may not be a loss for town from a contribution standpoint, it's a wasted lynch, and I'll just be added to the list with Mattchew and Zealos. I have one question for you: As all of your experience with me is based around my first game of mafia ever, you have the unique perspective of having equally experienced my town AND scum games. Do I feel like I'm playing like I did in either of them? | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
kush, you understand me so well it makes it hard to keep calling you an evil godfather or sk <3 I definitely don't want a no-lynch. Town only has so many opportunities to kill scum, and without a vig, or possibly a vig who saved his shot and is aiming at me tonight, I don't think no-lynching is the best call. Draz is now second on my scumlist, and his participation since returning hasn't changed my view on him. I maintain that I would be more than willing to vote for kush, as his play this game seems very conducive to an SK playstyle imo. The pesky green check is getting in the way, though. Since a kush lynch is pretty impossible at this moment, and most people have shown an aversion to lynching drazak today, I'm going to place my vote on hopeless1der. I was more convinced of his scumminess than towniness by Acro's case. Particularly the scummy mindset portion. My strongest opposition for a hope lynch is that drazak is also voting for him, but his wasn't a particularly strong case. I think hopeless has a stronger possibility of flipping scum than town. ##Vote hopeless1der I haven't seen anything overtly scummy from Prome, but other people have a point in that today hasn't been as convincing of his towniness as D1 most certainly was. | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
in-post edit: I also think the wide array of votes at the moment could indicate scum trying to spread out the vote. That is another reason that I am willing to vote Prome. | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
On November 06 2012 06:40 thrawn2112 wrote: uh what do you guys think about lynching drazak I'm for it. ##Unvote ##Vote drazak | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
 | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
On November 06 2012 06:46 risk.nuke wrote: Yeah, then why did you refuse to make yourself and your opinions known when specifically requested several times. Right now you smell like last minute show-up-to-vote. Granted both townies and scum can do it but it sure as hell isn't something that makes you look townie in my eyes. Was I called out this morning without responding? I don't think I see anything that I missed... | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
##Vote hopeless1der | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
Is there anything you want me to talk about for the next 20 minutes? I don't want to lynch DP. | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
On November 06 2012 07:50 DarthPunk wrote: Wait so you think all three scum are on this wagon? No. I just believe that it is a possibility that he overlooked. For him, I feel it should have been viable (since both myself and Acro are voting for him already). | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
On November 06 2012 08:17 Acrofales wrote: Oh, and Kush was just being dumb. There cannot be two godfathers. SK? | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
 | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
I'm in class, reading and responding when I have time. You've all made it quite clear by this point why his switching was scummy. Sometimes I need a bit of explanation. I'm back on the drazak wagon. | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
 | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
When I reconsidered draz, I found it strange that anyone who was scum, who had parked his vote on a scumbuddy for 48 hours, would switch off at such an incredibly suspicious time. At that point, I wouldn't consider doing that in my wildest dreams. Two things "reconvinced" me of his scumminess. First, my own realization that I probably wouldn't have done that as town either. It is not something that I would do as either alignment (I believe). Second, was everyone pointing out who he ended up switching his vote to. Draz had Prome as a kind of regrettable vote - he supposedly didn't want to vote for Prome unless there were no other options. Despite that, he unvotes hopeless and votes you. That is scummy. Oh, and everything I've said about him before XD | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
On November 04 2012 08:38 kushm4sta wrote: My flavor theory grows stronger... town- non character power roles- villain mafia/sk- hero (bugs bunny, jessica rabbit, road runner) Which of kush's "vt names" has flipped scum, again? | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
And SK, scum is probably going to kill you. Should probably kill them. It's for the best. | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
I am Tasmanian Devil - One shot Jailkeeper Apparently I decided to consolidate all of my posting for the game into a single post. Sorry about that. I think it's worth it though. A few issues with this: 1) The way the Jailkeeper spoiler in the OP is phrased, I misunderstood what Jailkeeper was capable of in this setup. I thought I was only capable of saving, not roleblocking. Yes, I know what a jailer is normally capable of, but coming out of LC mafia and after looking at the C9++ setup and not seeing a jailer but seeing a medic, I assumed I was basically the medic. Therefore, my mind jumped right to my role breadcrumb from LC mafia. It was my mistake, but I hope it doesn't ruin everything I'm about to say. 2) Since I only have one action for the game, I couldn't exactly mimic my crumb from LC ("I'm going to save austinmcc the trouble..."). All I had this game was this post where I say that "A vig would save us the worry." It was all I was able to come up with at the time (both due to time restrictions as well as creativity issues), and I figured that I would simply breadcrumb my action later and all would be well. Thinking about it now, there's little reason to believe this claim, but I am putting it out there because I can only use my ability once, and this will narrow down the scum field if I am able to convince you. 3) Apparently I say "save" more than I thought I did. That's the "breadcrumb" I used in LC to hint at my role, while the better crumbs were regarding who I actually checked. Essentially, my action crumbs have been more convincing than my role crumbs. As my only crumb at the moment is that I said "save" earlier (then later said it about three more times after a search of my own filter XD), my crumb is considerably weak. Some comments of mine that I believe lend credence to my claim: Any time I say kush's flavor theory is somewhat swaying me. D1 it was because I didn't have one of those non-character names. D2 it was because obviously my name is in line with Daffy Duck and Sylvester. The flaw that popped up later: Bugs Bunny, I will comment on later. My reason for not using my power during the first day: I am a one-shot jailkeeper, and I didn't want to waste two town abilities if I accidentally hit another blue role. I was also far more unsure of things than I am today. I think that today there will be more to gain from my action than if I had randomly selected someone yesterday. Why am I claiming now? Because my play has been pretty much abysmal, and I really don't want to get myself lynched tomorrow or shot by someone without having the opportunity to help town if I can with my host-given abilities. I also think that scum or sk may have gotten wind of some of the subtext in my posts and might be gunning for me tonight. And as I said before, if I am able to convince you of this then one more person is eliminated from the scumpool. After all of the writing I did below, everything I said above is pretty much irrelevant. I think I probably drew a vigi shot or possibly two in the last few hours, and am likely to die, but I think it was worth it. At the very least I possibly saved one of my townreads (Prome) and I believe I've given two great options for a lynch. | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
My current feelings on various players: Drazak Honestly, 'nuff said. I did doubt the scumminess of his actions around the lynch, but after reading through what others have said I am convinced at the very least that it is not a town tell. If you add that to how I previously felt about him, he still turns up scum. Crazy theory time, because it's falling together in my head just about perfectly. I feel like each of these players could be scum/sk on their own merits, but the way they're interacting is quite interesting. Much of this will be a scenario that I've constructed around a few particularly... odd facts about their interactions, but I maintain that both of these players should be lynched. I say it again, if you don't exactly buy into the case as a whole, analyze it for it's individual components and realize that they're both playing incredibly strangely. I have done my best to explain it, but not being scum or SK, I cannot possibly know everything. Kush + Thrawn Timeline kush has his flavor theory (I think this is the first mention of it) N2 Starts thrawn's breadcrumb kush's theory grows stronger kush's reads so far are based exclusively on his flavor theory thrawn claims Bugs Bunny thrawn asks if kush believes his claim A.K.A. "Kush, do you understand what's going on?" kush believes thrawn's claim A.K.A "Yes, I understand" Kush unvoting hopeless1der because of the flavor theory only now is the flavor theory wrong kush sk I don't feel like he's been playing to either of his metas (though I admittedly haven't heavily analyzed his meta because I find it to be a daunting task). People who have said that he is playing to his town meta (specifically drazak): Can you point out a game where he spent the majority of his posts analyzing the flavor text or some other aspect of the game that has nothing to do with someone's behaviour? His posts seem almost exclusively centered around bluefishing, which would be a good goal for a serial killer, as scum will target blues and not him. I'd also like to point out that Hopeless1der's flip doesn't in any way abolish his flavor theory. Scum flipped "hero", blues have flipped "villain", and townies are all so far (including his own personal input) still "non-characters". The only contradiction that I can see is thrawn's roleclaim, which conveniently aleviates kush of guilt for his play. After pursuing flavor-text based reads the entire game, why did he suddenly drop it only now that a scum has flipped to show that his protector has similar flavor? In fact, he used that exact name in his list of examples. He states that he trusts Thrawn's claim, even though it's in direct conflict with his great flavor theory (which he states at one point is the basis of all of his reads). Thrawn claims with one of the exact names he's mentioned as likely scummy, and kush believes it. Why? Thrawn is either scum or this breaks his theory. In addition, he doesn't admit that his theory's been broken until after a scum flips. He didn't know that hope would flip with "Road Runner", but he knows he can't keep pursuing the flavor theory when someone has flipped who would implicate his provider of innocence. This definitely makes me think SK over scum. thrawn is not playing how I expected him to play - I usually see him as a hapa-esque player, with a lot of posts and interaction with other players. He seems different this game. I can't remember having seen any of his scum games (or even if I've participated in any of them), but according to this post from the irc mafia thread, his scum meta is that of a lurker (I feel that despite having 3-4x the filter I do, he hasn't been as active as I expected coming in, and the quality of contributions feels lacking). That quote is straight from his own mouth, without any influence from being in a game at the time. There is also a list of games from the page before that post that you can read to see it for yourself. Yes, this is regarding IRC mafia and not forum mafia, but I think that distinction matters far more for someone like me than it would for someone like thrawn. I believe his difficulty stems from his ability to participate when he knows he's lying. I'm used to him appearing to have no trouble posting frequently and insightfully as town, and I don't feel like that would change much between IRC and forum. I kind of expected him to play like Acro or Prome have been. In addition, and personally more convincing, I find it highly possible that he fake-roleclaimed. There are a series of steps that need to be broken down. (in post 3) | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
1) The role. I believe 1-shot cop is the easiest and most useful fakeclaim according to the c9++ setup (which I know isn't definitely the setup used, but is the closest thing that anyone in the thread could base their setup speculation on). It allows you to make one check at some point without being held accountable for any future checks. It, along with vigi, doesn't require a full version of itself to be claimed (according to C9++), and a vigi fakeclaim doesn't allow you to manipulate the game. You can't missclaim with it either. If you are scum, you know everyone else is town (or have a way to test for an SK in certain cases - A.K.A. Kush) It also has the potential for finding the SK. More on that in a moment. 2) His breadcrumb. It's well written, that's for sure. The thing is, it's made during the night post, after scum could have selected their NK, and while the post is about kush, it doesn't breadcrumb kush. thrawn could use the same breadcrumb following nights to the same effect. On top of that, why didn't he just outright state that he was the 1-shot cop during the night (we get a free hour to do so)? He was going to claim the next day anyway. The way it's set up, he could refer to that crumb throughout the game, and say that he used his ability on any person in the game on any night. 3) The potential. Once scum know who the SK is, they can either waste another KP on them the next night (assuming they didn't outright kill him), or turn them over to town (either with legitimate arguments, or as one of them is about to be lynched). Both options are bad for the SK. If you're able to communicate to him that you know who he is, then you tell him that you know who he is, and you're basically in it together against town. It puts him in a position of knowing who one scum is, but being unable to do anything about it without losing the game for himself. This gains scum and SK a tentative alliance. The result is that scum don't have to worry about a SK NK on at least one person, the one communicating with him secretly in the thread. The SK gets to keep living, and possibly work his way into a position to win the game. A side effect is that if the SK is going to go under, he can take at least that one mafia with him in the event of a lynch. Conveniently, the green check both alerts the SK that scum know who he is, and also protects both him AND the scum from scrutiny for at least one day, if not more than that. You'll notice that thrawn asks if kush believes him. Kush responds that he believes him. The actions of both players seems strange at this point, do they not? 4) The timing. I've already mentioned how thrawn's breadcrumb came a bit late. What I haven't mentioned yet is how thrawn's claim itself came 18 hours into D2. I believe this is after everyone else commented in the thread, indicating that it's unlikely anyone else was going to roleclaim cop. If either of these things weren't the case, it would be far less suspicious. The fact that he crumbed during the night and claimed halfway through the next day (instead of earlier in the day or sometime during the night post) give me strong feelings that he was being more careful than he should have had to be with his claim. I can tell you that I thought hard over when I should best post this, and my conclusion was apparently the absolute opposite of thrawn's. All of these things make me feel as though his town read on Kush isn't legitimate. If thrawn flips scum, and I truly believe he will flip scum, then definitely doubt the hell out of kush. Or lynch him first. Whatever. | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
If there is a vigi here, claim asap. If there was a kill blocked, scum probably aimed for kush and didn't kill him, thus revealing him as SK. If there isn't a vigi, then bits of my connection conspiracy fall apart a bit, but each player's individual play is still weird as hell. The ways in which kush and thrawn have acted since I started asking questions further confirms my beliefs. Thrawn is going all wishy-washy over kush, saying he doesn't want a kush lynch, but oh wait, he might after all. Unfortunately, he can't vote for kush or kush will reveal that he's scum. And now kush is picking his flavor theory back up again, even though by this point it's basically useless (moreso than it was before). It's all he can hang on to. They're flopping around, gasping for air, and I think it's time to put them out of their misery. Everyone else Town to various degrees. I would be heavily against a prome, acro, or DP lynch. risk and release I am less confident of. I would still need a lot of convincing to vote for either of them over thrawn or kush. After writing all of this out, I feel pretty confident with what I've said. I think of kush, thrawn, and drazak, we will catch at least two scum/sk. Drazak is the one I'm now feeling the least sure about, if you can believe it. | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
On November 07 2012 07:23 Acrofales wrote: In case that was too cryptic: if the SK is bulletproof and scum shot him, then they did NOT shoot Mat or Zealos. That means we have a vig. It is theoretically possible, but we'll have to see whether the KP works out tonight. Anybody feel like claiming vig? Yeah, this is honestly what I'm hoping for. The problem I see in my mind is that according to C9++ (if we are to keep following it roughly) one V gets a 1-shot vigi, so it would be at least two V's claiming tonight imo. If the single shot vig shot last night, he would have claimed. An unlimited vig wouldn't have such qualms necessarily. | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
EBWOP: An unlimited vig wouldn't have such inclinations. | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
On November 07 2012 20:41 Acrofales wrote: Muso: given the almost certain absense of a vig, does your theory work with a Thrawn/Kush scumteam. If so, where does that leave Drazak? @Acro: I'm not entirely sure. A lot of the theory involves kush feeling incredibly like an SK to me this game, and him not knowing the exact flavor of the scumteam. The theory also involves the awkward and strange interactions between the two, as if they're working together without working together. It also speaks to me that scum are likely have a roleblocker (according to C9++ as well as the number of roleblocks both nights), and that kush claimed having been roleblocked, as well as the absence of even a single nk. You might ask, "why would kush claim the rb if he knew it was his scum team allies blocking him?" Well he still doesn't know if I actually blocked Prome. They know I'm trying to mess with them, so maybe I said I blocked prome, but actually blocked kush. Who knows? (I blocked Prome. I was not rb'd.) Another person who was incredibly interested in having Prome claim quickly or having me emphasize that I blocked Prome was thrawn. Take from that what you will. For me the theory is less how they knew who each other was, but as an explanation of their strange behaviour with each other. @kush: what do you think about thrawn fakeclaiming? You have confirmation that one of your scum names was actually scum. One of the other scum names has been claimed, and used an incredibly easy and questionably delivered claim to make. This doesn't set off any alarms, but actually makes you revise your theory? | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
Fuba's theory of Kush=sk is possible if we assume that thrawn is town and he did get a green check on Kush but mafia framed him that night they would know 1)kush=sk and 2)he took bullet proof, this means that Scum could rb me tonight and, instead of holding their shot shoot off the SK's bullet proof. So they rb you (which wasn't them, because it was me), shoot off the SK's bullet proof, and what did kush do? | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
##Vote drazak @Release: I think it's likely that someone with a kp who was roleblocked would be more inclined to report it, because then there's a roleblocker out there who knows you haven't told the truth. But on that note, the fact that you appear to have not thought of that makes me think you're town. Edit: saw I was ninja'd. Wanted to comment anyway. | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
On November 09 2012 08:54 kushm4sta wrote: Why would scum role block me though? Wouldn't it be beneficial for them for sk to kill someone? Claiming sk bro? | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
Am I off by an hour, or was the daypost due about 27 minutes ago? | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
I'm going to trust thrawn's claim again. I won't say that I don't think he *could* be lying, but the crumb was good, and I can't point at a post of thrawn's that I find scummy. I'll question it again if risk doesn't flip scum. The only possible scum are: risk and release The only possible sk are: risk, release, kush I still think Release is innocent because of that comment that Prome and I discussed earlier. Prome disagrees with me, but I don't see someone with a "guilty conscious" making the post that Release did. I might be persuadable, but I think Release is town. At that point, the only person left on my scum list is risk, so ##Vote risk.nuke That would leave kush as the sk, but we'll get to that when the time comes. | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
Kush is guaranteed town, since him being scum relies on thrawn lying, which would mean 2 scum. DP has his claim, and has played incredibly townish all game. If he's scum, he deserves to win XD Prome can't be scum because there was a kill last night and he was jailed. I can't be scum because I know my role and I am not scum Thrawn could theoretically be scum, but my theory was based majorly around his interactions with sk kush. Again, admittedly bad play that I always said I'd never do (unflipped association theories), but almost everything seemed to fit so well, and I got carried away with it. I don't think I could point out a post in his filter that I find to be overtly scummy. Aaaaand Release. Release is the only one left. Boom! Theoretical if Release isn't scum 5-1 lynch Release (4-1) If release isn't scum, scum kills someone (3-1) After that we lynch thrawn because I'm town. In thrawn's case, we lynch me because he says he's town. Not sure what everyone else might be thinking. Either way, lynching Release feels like the best bet. Does anyone think that thrawn is scummier than Release? Let me know if I missed anything. I think it's pretty solid. | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
I find your claim more reliable than either of ours. And I find both your's and mine more reliable than thrawn's. While I'm clearly biased by my own knowledge, I feel that anyone claiming to have jailed prome was unlikely to be lying about it. If the sk decided to kill prome, then any scum rb claiming to have jailed him would be outed instantly as a liar. It's a risk (heh) that as scum I don't think I would take, and I don't think you would either. There's also the fact that it would make more sense to breadcrumb roleblocker rather than jailer. You don't gain anything by lying about which fake role you have, so why not just give yourself the real role? Thrawn's crumb was good, and that I've never denied. The only reason I feel like I'm still questioning it is because I think it's an easy claim for scum to make. They crumb 1-shot cop, call someone town, then get a free ride to endgame. At this point I don't think he's scummy, but if it comes down to him vs me, I know who it is. | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
My thoughts going into the daypost were that either thrawn or release must be scum. For the most part my feelings have remained the same. I was reasonably ninja'd by DP (my thoughts are similar to his), but here's my breakdown anyway: My thoughts on everyone left in the game. It's pretty much varying degrees of towniness. Release. I did have that one post from Release that I felt made him innocent. I don't think a single person agreed with me, and have such abandoned my thoughts as incorrect. Aside from that post, there's nothing that struck me as townie about him. With most of the others, excluding maybe kush, I have townie feelings about them. In addition, Release being jailed N2, as well as him being jailed tonight, are the best explanations I have for the missing kp both nights. Thrawn. I can't recall having seen a post that made me think thrawn was scum. Prome brings up a good point that I mentioned earlier, however, that thrawn hasn't really been the town leader that I expected him to be coming into the game. That, and the ease with which scum could claim cop (imo) make me think he could be scum. Or he could have just been busy from his birthday/something-else-that-I-forgot weekend. Kush. I saw kush as confirmed town because if he was scum, then thrawn was scum, which I feel breaks the game somewhat. Ofc, if there were two godfathers in the game then thrawn could be telling the truth and kush would be scum. Based on his play alone I think I'd want to lynch kush over thrawn, but something keeps making me want to vote thrawn over kush. I'll try to figure out what that is in particular. DP. He's played a townie game. I don't see why a roleblocker would claim jailer because the sk could have killed his rb'd target. One of the last people I would vote for. Prome. Confirmed town I believe. Wouldn't vote for. Myself. I'm a one-shot jailkeeper. My D2 lynch candidates were drazak and hopeless1der. I jailed my top townread N2 so that he wouldn't die. If I'm scum, it means that both scum and the sk targeted kush on N2, which I find to be incredibly unlikely. Therefore, town. Also I saw a PM that said so I've probably missed something in here, as I'm kind of distracted. If you want to know anything specific, lemme know. | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
On November 14 2012 11:32 thrawn2112 wrote: i think I want to lynch mkfuba. Every point in this game where I've thought about lynching release, I always hit a roadblock because he is extremely open with his thought process and it's be really difficult to keep that up as scum This is en extremely wish washy post... all I really get from it is that you think release might be a null read. I'm really doubting the high number of blues we have, and on top of what I've already said before about fuba, his claim is the hardest to accept. He only claimed a role that makes him responsible for 1 roleblock, and there could be any number of reasons why a scum fuba would have known that it would be a safe claim to make. The breadcrumb was basically non existent. Also, wtf kush I thought you thought I was town all game long... this is how easily you're willing to switch your vote? I see nothing wrong with my post. It explains my reasoning. His cases had little impact on my thoughts of him. How is my claim the hardest to accept? My claim leaves an indication that something has happened. I said I jailed prome, and prome was roleblocked and didn't die, which I maintain was a likelihood N2. This is supported by the fact that there were 0 deaths. Your claim is impossible to verify at all. You crumbed a role that you could fakeclaim as scum with no possible downside unless you claim the bulletproof sk is town, and which leaves no evidence that anyone did anything. If I was scum roleblocker, why would I claim 1-shot jailer? It doesn't make any sense. Yours is the easiest fakeclaim. You say there could be any number of reasons for scum me to know what the SK was doing N2? Please name one. And breadcrumbs are non-indicative of alignment. Anyone can crumb anything. If I was scum planning on fakeclaiming, I'm pretty sure I'd be MORE likely to have a well-written crumb. Anyway, I trust prome, and I trust DP. If the scum wasn't release, it would have to be thrawn. I'm up for a lynch on either. The order is irrelevant to me. ##Unvote ##Vote thrawn2112 This may be slightly motivated by a need to be right when I called thrawn scum N2. | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
On November 14 2012 11:31 kushm4sta wrote: One thing I don't like about thrawn scum though...why would Elmer Fudd (drazak) and Bugs Bunny (thrawn) be on the same team?! Perhaps that's why WBG said the game was unbreakable through flavor :O | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
I'm leaving his night actions up to DP because planning it in the thread is kinda silly, and I have no control over it anyway. | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
@kush: my problem with DP being scum, aside from what would be a really good bus, is that he would have been crumbing jailkeeper since D1. Isn't it risky to claim jailer when you're actually roleblocker and there's an SK in the game? Maybe if you can find a second set of crumbs entirely for roleblocker alone, I'd consider it. Actually, if you found another set entirely then I'd vote for DP immediately. But I doubt it will be there. I'm going to get some sleep now... I should be up with more than enough time to go through release's filter and get something written up. I probably won't write anything on kush unless something really jumps out at me. | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
1) An elaborate bus and risky fakeclaim from DP 2) kush happening to be given a second godfather role and thrawn happening to check him with the single cop check in the game 3) Release is scum TL;DR for Prome <3: Release is scum. He was saved D1 by Muso's unfortunate gambit as well as Hope's intervention. His thoughts regarding drazak during N2 and D3 don't make much sense. He has been overstating the scumminess of peoples' actions for the entire game to make it look as though he's scumhunting, a fact that was noticed by at least 3 confirmed townies as well as DP (who I consider pretty confirmed town). His fake vig claim is weird as town, and I can see more scummy motivation for it. He showed signs of setting up a mislynch and succeeded. So here is my case against Release. Since I have trouble deciding what's scummy and what's just bad play, I'll be adding in bits from other townies that I agree with. From Mattchew: Release comes in to the thread with this post and edit Sounds very similar to this:On November 01 2012 09:00 Release wrote: to everyone: Are we asking Millers or Masons to claim? prplhz (the origin of the idea) said millers and now kushmasta has asked for masons to claim (although he does avoid saying mason). I have to say already that kshmasta is looking scummy. Since i don't see the advantage of a miller claim, i'd like to know why a miller should claim (from both prplhz and hope in particular). I'd also like to hear from kushmasta why you avoided saying mason. On November 01 2012 09:01 Release wrote: EBWOP: those are three separate ideas, although kushmasta is looking scummy for both trying to change who should claim and being deceitful about it. He accuses kushmasta of... honestly i dont know... especially after he asks about the discussion being about masons or millers. Kush misread the thread / roles being discussed and thought millers = masons... calling him scum for this is the biggest stretch i have seen in a while. there is no way anyone with any level of reading comprehension would draw these conclusions from kush's posting and reading the thread around it release is trying to look like he is scum hunting by skewing kush's words from the thread. On November 14 2012 11:24 thrawn2112 wrote: Acro also attests to the fact that Release is overstating the scumminess of peoples' actions. And DP picked up on the same exact thing. We now know that 4 confirmed (or as confirmed as can be) townies saw the scumminess in Release's case against kush. When I read Release's posts about me, I felt like most of what I've said could be actual town misinterpretations. Prome did it earlier, and we know he's confirmed town. I don't feel like I play the best townie game of mafia ever XD But the fact that three flipped town players (and DP) believe that he's painting townies in a scummy light to appear to be scumhunting, and the fact that until I disappeared last night both prome and DP seemed to be seeing me as town, makes me think otherwise.I didn't like the tone of his cases. It looked like he was just going through filters pointing out anything that could be interpreted as scummy and he wasn't really clear about exactly how scummy he thought either of his subjects were. kush if you remember, it looks like the cases jacob was making at the end of that newbie when you two were scum. They aren't actual cases, just lists of things that could be interpreted as scummy. Another interesting tidbit is that the post that allowed Release to back off of his mistaken kush case was posted by none other than Hopeless1der. It was also one of the posts that Acro pointed out as having a scummy mindset. On November 01 2012 10:49 Hopeless1der wrote: Acro, I just want to confirm that you think Kush derped (i.e. is probably town) and that Release might have derped but it was very scummy and you'd lean towards him being scum. Is that correct? I grudgingly agree that kush derps pretty consistently. On November 01 2012 11:59 Release wrote: It was also Hopeless1der who posted the case for Release's towniness, which for me, at least, was conducive to me being less suspicious of him. It, along with his case against Muso (which also distracted us from Release), were also hope's greatest contributions, which I think tells us something about Release.I would add subtly before convince, but yes. And thought. not think (see below). However, hope has attested to your derp, and that makes 2. I don't have any glaring suspicions to cast against hope so as of now, I will admit that my theory is probably too far-fetched to be the truth. 1st bold: I don't want a lynch-all-liars. 2nd bold: lynch-all-liars is retarded aka i don't want a lynch-all-liars. I agree with myself. However, i don't see how a game 4 months ago has much pertinence to me this game: I have played a grand total of 5 games (including this one) and my mind could have changed between those 4 months. Then, of course, there's the "I'm doing something scummy, but it's not scummy" post: On November 01 2012 11:20 Release wrote: I didn't find this scummy at the time, since I didn't see why scum would say they're doing something scummy while they're doing it. But it, along with the Muso debacle, did effectively distract town from what most people felt was a good scumhunt on Release. I'd probably still see this as a null tell if I wasn't looking at release being scum, but I'd have to admit that it did do exactly what he said it would.Do not use this post later to claim that i am shifting attention off myself. I acknowledge that I am under suspicion. So in the flurry of comment regarding the claiming, we seem to have dismissed the possibility of enacting a Lynch-all-liars policy. The main con i see if we do enact it is that we can't pull use fishing for reactions as freely. The main pro, however, is that people can't claim to be fishing for reactions. Another consequence is that more information is in the thread. Both town and mafia know more about true intentions and can react accordingly. Personally, i am against such a policy because people can very easily say "i changed my mind" and blame/vindication will tend to be imposed base on a town/scum flip. Next Release claims that a 1 for 1 trade would be good for scum, when any town would be happy to set up such a trade. This shows a non-townie mindset. Next is this series of posts in which he seems to be accusing Prome of being scum, but wants to make it clear that he's not subtly trying to trick us into voting Prome based on his choice of color: On November 03 2012 06:29 Release wrote: On November 03 2012 06:30 Release wrote: yeah, the red isn't meant to subtly mean scum, it's just a color. Please don't take it as propaganda/etc. Just my response in a different color. At this point thrawn picks up on the fact that Release seems to be feeling guilty, and that seems accurate. If he's trying to set up a lynch on Prome, why is he apologizing for making prome seem scummy? Next I see a series of cases on drazak as well as various now-confirmed townies. There are obvious reasons to lead mislynches as scum, and obvious reasons to bus your allies. One thing to point out is that after hope flips he drops drazak from his list of scumreads until he gives reasons for trying to voteswitch. Release thought drazak WAS scummy, then he did something that most of town found scummy and hopeless was lynched, then Release no longer found drazak scummy unless he couldn't give a reason for his last-minute voteswitch. Also in there, a possible scumslip: On November 07 2012 00:32 Release wrote: I cut it down because the rest of the post was pretty pointless to include. This is not how I would phrase this sentence as town. You can all decide for yourselves if you think you would.-snip- I don't see why we couldn't have a framer. -snip- When Acro calls him on his switch with drazak, Release admits to being wishy-washy. This is something that he's pointed out in my filter a few times, and something that I tend to not call someone else out on because I *am* wishy-washy as town. If he is wishy-washy himself, then why has he pointed it out as a scum trait in me? Next thing I come to is Acro's claim and Release's fake vig claim. First of all, scum at the point of Release's breadcrumb know that there's at least one more roleblocking role in the game. And they know that they don't have any of the roleblockers, and that it will look strange to town that we have so many blocking roles. So Release breadcrumbs that he's a vigi, gets roleblocked, says it was scum rb because of his breadcrumb, and gets a mislynch on whoever claims roleblocker. Unfortunately for him, no one found the breadcrumb, and we believed Acro over Release. On November 09 2012 09:27 Release wrote: This quote strikes me as odd because as town, I did feel more relieved that we'd found the godfather. It meant that kush was unlikely to be scum. Sure, the sk was still around, but this was new information that made our lives somewhat easier. This might have been my confirmation bias on my thrawn + kush theory, so I again leave it up to you to decide if you remember being more relieved when godfather flipped."Very much would I feel annoyed if the you were the reason we lost after finding the Godfather of all people." Doesn't strike you as an awkward sentence? Ofc i would feel annoyed. We all would. Who cares if we got the GF? He's scum. There's no point in mentioning the GF specifically. Then we get to the last few days, where he is alone and not interacting with a scumteam. His vote for risk makes sense, since to his eyes town was able to ourselves into a mislynch. Then we get to his cases on thrawn and I, which I've basically covered above. We talked ourselves into a mislynch and he went with it. He actually helped that one along by mentioning previously that if we roleblock him, scum could hold their kp to force a mislynch. Remember when he conveniently pointed back to that post after we all voted for him? Yeah. Release is scum, and we should lynch him tomorrow. | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
And what would be easily misinterpreted? You thought Prome was scum, did you not? Writing your response in red makes sense in that case. I can't say I would find you scummy for adding red to a response to scum. What I do find scummy is that you felt defensive about it before even being called out (which I doubt would have even happened). Any comment on why my wishy-washiness as well as kush's is scummy but yours isn't? | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
If there is no nk tonight, we'll be at 4-1 still. In that case I think I'd prefer to lynch Release. I do believe he will flip scum. If he doesn't, however, then I will personally know that kush is scum. DP and Prome may be skeptical, but I would know who it was. I guess that decision would come down to whether or not DP and Prome think kush or I is more townie. In this case, we would at least have two chances to lynch, as well as a roleblock for the upcoming night. If we no-lynch, then nothing changes. We just give scum another opportunity to nk. I'm not sure I like that idea. We could go on forever roleblocking randomly among the three of us and scum possibly holding their nks to trick us. Or constantly roleblock Release and have no nk and constantly wonder if he's scum or not. At this point, I feel like we have almost all of the information we're going to get on anyone unless a nk happens. If there is a nk, then DP is the likely NK target. It would be 3-1, with prome, kush, release, and myself. kush and I would likely agree on a release lynch. If that happened, and we were wrong, then it's down to me, kush, and prome. Scum would nk and win. If we don't lynch, then Prome is the next likely target, and it will come down to release, kush, and myself. Again, kush and I would likely agree on a release lynch. If we're right, we win, and if we're wrong we lose. I guess at the moment, in the case of us going to mylo, it comes down to Release is scum or we lose. All of these decisions may vary depending on the DP roleblock and if there's a nk. I can't say for sure what I will want to do until I have more facts. | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
Gotta head out to my meeting now. Hope I come back to a bunch of votes for Release instead of myself. | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
Roleblock confirmed. Anyone else think the nk was strange? | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
 | ||
| ||
|
|
Wardi Open
Replay Cast
Replay Cast
RSL Revival
Cure vs Percival
ByuN vs Spirit
PiGosaur Monday
RSL Revival
herO vs sOs
Zoun vs Clem
Replay Cast
The PondCast
RSL Revival
Serral vs SHIN
Solar vs Cham
RSL Revival
Reynor vs Scarlett
ShoWTimE vs Classic
[ Show More ] |
|
|
EPT
(
