Acme Mini Mafia, Inc

On November 02 2012 23:28 Acrofales wrote:

You need to focus more on behaviour and less on mechanics.

1. Because if you even did a LITTLE bit of thought you would see you're barking up the wrong tree and
2. Because more claims at this point is opposite of what we need.

Let me spell it out for you. Unless you think it is the bluff of the century (and an INCREDIBLY risky one at that), it is completely impossible that Muso and I are both scum.

That leaves:
1. We're both town. This is possible.
2. Muso is town and Acro is scum. This is retarded. Please answer why scum would COUNTERCLAIM a mason claim with no way of knowing it's not legit.
3. Muso is scum and Acro is town. This is possible.

Given Muso's playstyle I am hesitant to say whether it's 1 or 3, but leaning marginally towards Muso being town.

So, how about you look for scum instead of trying to get people to claim, which is starting to look very dodgy.

On November 03 2012 05:42 Release wrote:




Well the bolds make me feel like you're playing a game of damage limitation:
You're almost assuming that we're going to lynch town and our best shot is to lynch a town who will give us good information.

The next one includes "or scum." As in: if he is scum, we still don't want to lynch him because we won't receive more information about other scum members.
1) we lynch to get scum, so if we think he is scum, we lynch him. No excuses.
2) if he is scum, we can more clearly see the agenda behind it through his posts, intereactions, etc.

I can definitely see a scum agenda: he is trying to cause us to gather as much information as possible without actually hitting a scum.

On November 02 2012 23:54 kushm4sta wrote:

Well draz is being wish washy as fuck here.
So you felt the need to weigh in on both me and prom, even though you have no idea what to think of either of them?
DRAZZAK

Anyone I am NOT trolling. I don't see how you would come to that conclusion.
I have been focusing on mechanics rather than behavior, though, that is true. I will focus on whatever I need to to find scum honestly. Analyzing behavior and analyzing mechanics are both tools you can and should use. I don't know why anyone would dismiss either.


Hypothetically, let's say that all vts have non character names like the ones that have been revealed so far (anvil, kid watching tv). Do you really think the mod would give break up that theme by randomly giving 1 vt a character name?

On November 03 2012 01:03 kushm4sta wrote:

Six hours till lynch. If we want to lynch someone based on behavior I think it should be drazak.

He has contributed nothign he has not given any reads except saying he doesn't know.

"A D1 mafia kill would definite ensure our town victory" LOL... no it wouldn't.
Also why would town say that? Completely unproductive comment. He's just trying to paint himself as town.
Anyway, read drazzak's filter it's real short.

##unvote
##vote drazzak

I still want any vt with a character name to claim btw. If no one claims then I will also want to lynch acro.

On November 03 2012 06:00 kushm4sta wrote:
huh its a great time for him to claim imo. It looks like he's going to be lynched right now, so he should claim before its too late.
##unvote
So I need another wagon now.

On November 03 2012 06:11 kushm4sta wrote:
carrot fits perfectly. He came up with it fast.

No one else is a viable lynch but muso.

On November 03 2012 14:05 kushm4sta wrote:
Acrofales

There's the flavor theory but that is just one piece of the puzzle.

What are the odds of two town fake claiming?

I think it was a calculated scum risk.
Question to people who know mafia possibilities better than me: Is there some way scum could know muso was fake claiming?

Even if he didn't know, consider this: Would acro's claim have looked more scummy if Muso turned out to be mason? It seems like the is yes, but there is equal scumminess to action whether muso was mason or not. This is because when the action took place, acro had no way to know if the claim was fake or not. The only tool he had to discern the fake claim was his wits, which he has as mafia or town.
So don't let muso not being mason make you think his action is any less scummy.

His defense is that it would be retarded for scum to fake claim. Do you see how that logic is circular? It is retarded for scum to do that, therefore doing that makes you look town, therefore it is smart for scum to do that.

Also don't forget the flavor theory!

On November 04 2012 02:49 kushm4sta wrote:
Prome already said his name does not fit my flavor theory. Prome please claim, since you already admitted to being a vt.
If that is a character name I will stfu about flavor theory forever.
Also why did you reveal it now and not during d1?
~~
What is the difference between risk town and risk scum? Does anyone know?
Same question for mattchew.
~~
3 people want to lynch me now! Zealos, acro, thrawn. Anyone else?
Are there any questions you want me to answer? The cases are quite spread out so it's a little hard to respond to everything.

Summary of the case against me:
1 over reliance on flavor theory
I have been pretty obsessed with it sorry.

2 blue hunting
I just wanted more evidence for my theory. I only ever advocated 1 vt claiming their name. Also I thought mason should claim in the beginning but changed my mind about it. (The reason I actually made the case for mason claiming is I read in Sandroba's filter from a game a long something he said about there being no downside to millers claiming. But I thought he were talking about the role that is actually masons. Then I see someone this game talking about millers claiming and that authoritative opinion is only enforced, so I assume millers claiming is a smart play.)
^ a lot of text about something pretty insignificant.

3 thrawn saying im off my meta
Every game I try to improve and play better. I am being less emotional I think it's better play. (and also I've been hurt so many times in the past)

4 my "scumslip"
I said "Why is town fake claiming?"
2 people fakeclaimed mason. I doubt both of them are mafia. So I can say with almost a certainty that town is fakeclaiming because at least one of them is town.

On November 05 2012 03:47 Acrofales wrote:
Hmmmm, rereading Release's filter and it is truly terrible. I can't believe I missed this on my first readthrough.

Release vs. Kushm4sta: at the time I thought it was Kush being dumb and Release being dumber. However, it WAS a very easy mistake for scum to jump on and a newbie scum (and this would be Release's first scum game) could definitely be expected to try to jump on that.

While in my nightpost I said that his "distraction" post read as too ballsy a move for scum, we must not forget that it actually worked. The topic shifted away from Release's aggression towards Kush and onto more easily handled subjects. Partially helped by Muso's claim.

Release's behaviour in that claim was very very weird. The first thing he reacted with was

This is strange play, regardless of alignment, and I am unsure what to make of it. One way this makes sense is if he was WAITING for a trap to be laid, and he caught it out. Town doesn't wait for traps. Scum does.

However, in the whole ordeal, this is what really caught my eye:

This slipped by me the first time. A 1 for 1 trade is a TERRIBLE deal for scum. Both scum and town players know that. However, if you KNOW Muso and Acro are both town, then you suddenly have to come up with a reason to lynch Muso. This reason is extremely forced. Most everybody else was just really confused about why Muso would claim mason as scum... which is the correct reaction.

Kush actually called him out on this post at the time and his response was a classic OMGUS with some more idiotic logic where he tries to make a 1-1 trade make sense with complete lunacy:


Then the vote switching: he wants to vote for Promethelax, but if we can get a majority on Drazak, he will go along with the deal. Ends up voting Muso because:


In other words: doesn't give a shit about where his vote ends up as long as it secures a lynch (on a townie like Muso, who despite what Promethelax says was always going to be lynched, because it was way too late for a voteswitch anywhere else with half the town afk at the deadline).

But the REAL nail in the coffin is:


Wait... WHAT? You voted for Muso to ensure the lynch would happen. You ACTUALLY preferred both Promethelax and Drazak (or at least said you did)... however NOW his behaviour was suddenly very scummy.

Add to that, that he has put 0 effort into this game except when under fire and we have ourselves a scum. I am not sure what this says about Promethelax. Still thinking things over. However, Release has surpassed Promethelax as my prime scum read.

##unvote
##vote Release

PS. Yes, I said I was reading DarthPunk: that was completely inconclusive and I don't know what to make of him.

On November 05 2012 23:54 Acrofales wrote:
Not much to go on for Hopeless1der. I will thus make the case both ways, as I did for Muso. On Muso I felt the town case was stronger (as I said at the time). This time I am leaning towards scum:

The case for Hopeless1der

The scum mindset

Why grudgingly? Why would a townie grudgingly admit to knowing something about a fellow townie that exculpates him. Would this not be a good thing? However, from a scum viewpoint, it makes sense: he does not want to admit that Kush derps pretty consistently, but feels compelled by the general direction of the game, and the need to make a good impression at the start of it to grudgingly admit to this information.

Regarding Muso:

At this point all Muso had done wrong, as far as anybody knew was lie about his experience in the game. If a mason claimed to be his partner, then his claim would be more believable than mine. However, hopeless wants to go ahead and lynch him REGARDLESS of any further developments. Now, hopeless may be a townie making an error of judgement and believing my claim unconditionally. However, at this point I see no real reason to say we should lynch Muso regardless unless you're scum and want to push strongly for that townie lynch. At this point, my claim was by far the more believable one (as evidenced by everybody voting Muso), so he picked Muso to bandwagon on, rather than me.


Suspicious minds would say that you are paying way too close attention to the wording and that you are, in fact, bluehunting. I thought this was worth mentioning, because the tone rubbed me the wrong way at the time. I am still not quite sure why though. If I had to say, it is because Hopeless seems to be puzzling rather hard over whether my claim means I'm claiming VT or not. Something townies shouldn't be worried about (except that Kush got everybody riled up about it).

The OMGUS

Now I think that Muso did not word himself properly here, but his main point was that hopeless1der was unwilling to even consider the possibility that Muso was town. Hopeless skipped right over that part and made a jump of bad logic: Muso knows he'll flip town and is talking about AFTER his death, when everybody else will know he flipped town too. He thinks Prom is scum and Hopeless is trying to keep the lynch focused on Muso to protect his scumbuddy. However, regardless of what Prom flips, he urges us to look into Hopeless.

The mere fact that Hopeless is unwilling to consider a town Muso is what he is finding scummy. This is indeed scummy behaviour. Hopeless' way of dealing with this is to discredit it and OMGUS someone who is already about to die anyway.

He shows absolutely NO willingness to even consider the possibility that Muso is town. That may be because he already knows Muso is town and he has absolutely no reason to reconsider his thoughts given the rather large amounts of new information.

The lurk
After 18 hours of inactivity (all through the night, I might add, which is when scum is busy deciding whom to shoot in their own little QT) we get:

This is an utterly useless post, which just emphasizes his lurkiness. I don't see this as "too bold to be scum". People had noticed his absense and were commenting on it. He needed to say something about it. This is all we get.

Since then his activity has been limited to a rather bad meta-case against Promethelax, and a throwaway statement that he wants to lynch Drazak. If anything they feel like testers: if somebody bites and starts ramping up a case against Release or Drazak, he is ready to jump on it. However, he is completely noncommittal and happy to do no scumhunting of his own.

This also ties into his earlier behaviour (see below): he showed commitment and activity in the game, but once people started reading him as town (me in my night post, for instance), he dropped off the map. Also, lets not forget Mattchew[/green's opinion. Mattchew is actually a pretty good scumhunter, despite him claiming otherwise, and it is always a good idea to listen to what he says (although moreso when he's scum )

---

---

The case for Hopeless1der

Keeping discussion from derailing

Why would scum be afraid of kush running rampant with his crazy theory. Fake claming seems particularly easy.. and all that is needed to placate Kush is a silly VT claim like Paint Bucket or Boulder if push really comes to shove and town starts mass claiming. And that's assuming scum isn't given a list of safeclaims in the first place (a fairly common thing for normal games).

However, as town, this whole discussion was a giant distraction from what we should have been doing: scumhunting. Hopeless seems to be trying to keep the town on track.

Keeping promises
Too often scum make a promise to be active and then forget about it. It's one of the things I like to look for when reading filters. Hopeless makes a promise and delivers on it. This put him on my town list initially, as it shows a certain consistency. Not a big tell, though, especially given his later behaviour. See above.
+ Show Spoiler [Hopeless1der's promise] +
Incidentally, I also liked the content of this post as it agreed rather largely with what I found based on Release's meta. However, scum has an easy time making town reads look right, because they already know that the player is town.

On November 07 2012 03:22 Acrofales wrote:
Okay... Release. We have established that you don't like my style of writing cases. Is there anything that you actually find scummy, rather than unlikeable?

As for the dichotomy, it entirely 100% covers all cases. I just posted the 4 possible situations (discounting SK, who for all intents and purposes has the same information as town at that point). If you feel the conclusions I draw from one of them is wrong (namely, as you indicate, that I am scum and was pulling the bluff of the century), you are free to say so. You're wrong, btw.

Now a bit more about the cases.

I'm not going to claim my case on Hopeless1der was terribly strong. At the time I wasn't actually planning on voting with it. It was more an update of my findings, because earlier I had listed Hopeless1der as reading townie and I found that I no longer did so. It was more a case to gather feedback and spark discussion than a "lets lynch Hopeless" case at the time. However, as time went on I found Prom looking slightly less scummy. My entire thought process is layed out in the thread: I even wanted to no-lynch at one point, because nobody was talking, I was not feeling secure enough about Prom anymore and I thought it was mylo. When people came back and started talking and I learned it wasn't mylo, I figured Prom was back on the table. However, the longer the discussion with Prom (and the other people active at the time) went, the less I felt a Prom lynch. My only alternative at that time was Hopeless1der, whose defense I was not particularly happy with (I could explain it post-hoc, but what's the point, he flipped scum).

Why were you off the table at the time?
1. Your case on Kush, with connections and all that jazz. It seemed too farfetched to be some crazyness made up by scum.
2. The main point of my case on you was based on a misunderstanding.
3. Your defense seemed adequate at the time.

I presume that explains my thought process enough? You still haven't really said what you think of Drazak. You agree that he needs to be killed asap?

On November 07 2012 14:17 Release wrote:

If i change my vote now, I will be "afraid to bus my scum buddy" or "too wish-washy"

so i'll make use of FOS: kush
You are not town.
Draz is scum.
Consider yourself lucky.

On November 08 2012 13:10 Release wrote:
On a day on which no one dies, occam's razor says that those who have kill roles will not claim to be RBed. It would lead to that line of reasoning ,"no one dead, this guy RBed, this guy has killing role"