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On October 24 2012 04:15 austinmcc wrote:
Marv ...
I'm always paranoid about marv because of the first game we played. Here are some general thoughts, things for everyone to keep in mind:
Almost half of Drazak's filter is before marv posted in this game. More than half of Drazak's filter is before marv got active this game (he came back but went to sleep or whatever). That's just a thing. It's only relevant IF Drazak flips red, and even though it's not super indicative of anything, but when I think "Why wouldn't scum 2 be reigning in scumDrazak?" one obvious answer is "Scum 2 wasn't around yet." Marv fits the bill of someone who wasn't around.
Marv has to play odd this game. I think a lot of the thread has read/played in games he was in. Some players have been scum with him. Even if you can't fully identify scumMarv and townMarv, marv has trouble this game because he may well be a lynch on D3 or D4. If game not solved or marv not shot, probably scum marv at that point, that whole argument. In this game, that's a HUGE liability for scum. 1/2 of scum being certain to get killed D3 or D4 as policy? No bueno. It means scumMarv, with a newbie scumbuddy, CANNOT BUS LIKE NORMAL. Scummarv likes bussing weak scum players, but he can't this game, because there's too much risk. Late game he'll probably get killed, so he can't bus the only other scum.
Therefore, scummarv can't go with his normal game plan. Don't look for game plan, don't look for meta, blah blah blah. Just look for contributions. Look for how he feels. I don't love the way he's staying back this game, making friends, cracking jokes, etc. One way to get around the policy lynch later is to seem like you're distracted this game. Miss some D1, gotta be absent for part of game later, no strong reads, etc. etc. That way it doesn't look as odd that you've not been NKed after a couple nights. Really, scummarv would have 2 options - play SUPER townie and try not to get policy lynched, or sit back and hope to make the argument that his play this game hasn't warranted a NK, therefore don't policy lynch him.
So anyway, getting to the point. I'm wary of marv. I'm wary of marv every game, but THIS game in particular throws a wrench into the way he normally plays scum. It's more difficult for him to bus his ONLY teammate. It's much more difficult to throw off the policy lynch, because we've got some strong townies but nobody... S class? No vets that are almost sure to die N1 because scum just can't leave them up. He's in an odd position this game IF he's scum.
Okay so, there are some dumb thoughts. I haven't always agreed with his thought processes this game, I don't like that he found v7 scummy for things I found townie, I don't like that he finds Drazak townie off some of his contributions when I get hung up on those weird outside-the-game posts. But oh well, that doesn't make marv scum. It just makes me wary, and it makes me really think about how he would have to play a 2-scum game this game.
If you're town marv, then this is still what you get for LV. Eventually I'll get over it, but your play this game has been interesting. I don't care if you've been low involvement in other town games, or been busy, or whatever. It feels very backseat-y, very joke-y and friendly at times (yes you've thrown some insults as well), which gets the thought stuck in my head that you're trying to avoid some kind of policy lynch on yourself.
LV: never forget.
I've greened the stuff that I'm mainly gonna talk about with you. I'm going to play your little game of hypotheticals, if only to explain my "stupidest thing I ever read" comment either. I can basically accept your premise that if I were scum, it would be very difficult for me to bus, due to my eminently policy-lynchable status - if I'm around at 1 scum endgame lylo, something is probably a bit dodgy. Right.
What I completely disagree with, what is flat out wrong, and I'm incredulous you're thinking that way, is that I would be telling drazak to clam up. Read my god-damn scum QTs. In Liquid City I absolutely railed at talismania for not posting, I told him he was playing against win-con and it was a disgrace. I repeatedly told ShiaoPi that he had to post MORE, at one point he asked me if he had to contribute before bed, and I told him to fucking do it. When it was clear I was going to die I told him again that I wouldn't be around to make him post more and he'd have to do it himself. One of the primary things I do in scumQTs is tell people to post post post. The idea that I would be telling drazak to NOT post is mindboggling. Surely turning him into a lurker is not going to win us the game if I'm getting policy lynched at some point. It just makes no sense. Do you see why I called you stupid now, dopeybrains?
To touch on policy lynch again, just on me, I'm gonna look superbad if I'm around in a 1 scum lylo ('S' class townies if you will). Mainly because, imo, from scum's point of view, leaving me alive at any point, especially later, is pretty dangerous because as time goes on the likelihood increases that I'm gonna get my shit together and solve the game. Anyway, I'd love to be looking super townie, because one thing I usually do reasonably well as town is remove myself as a scum candidate. Apparently I'm not doing so well at that this game, and it's a source of massive fucking frustration for me. I'd love to be domineering town-marv who knows what's up. Unfortunately this game I don't have a really firm grasp of what's going on and it's a lot more annoying for me than it is for any of you. Put yourself in my shoes and imagine how arrogant-marv feels about being unsure about shit. I'm doing my absolute best to try to figure out what's what, and so far I've been having a bad game and it sucks.
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On October 24 2012 06:35 Hapahauli wrote:@ MarvRegarding iamp's "candle-light" thing, I initially thought that was the case as well (responding to Kei). However, iamperfection's more recent post (his clarification of that post) suggests my interpretation: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=376602¤tpage=31#607In it, he very clearly refers to that post as having a scumread on him. Regarding misrepresenting iamp's suspicions (in particular the vote on v7 vs. Kei's suspicions) Yah that's totally my bad. However, my other points still stand, namely his random FOS on me, his town read on Draz, and more recently, his uncharacteristically passive defense. And btw, I find it funny you still haven't commented on iamperfection's alignment at all. But I'm working on a case on you anyway - it'll take a little while to type.
He can very well have a scumread on him, that's not even dispute, but it was clear that vader was his biggest scumread. It's plastered all over his filter. The random FoS is meh and he's gone about his townread on draz in a way I'd expect a town iamp to do.
His uncharacteristically passive defence is something I'll have to think about some.
I think iamp is town, and I think YOU have a higher chance of flipping scum than he does.
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@marv:
marv wrote:
I'm doing my absolute best to try to figure out what's what, and so far I've been having a bad game and it sucks.
How do you know you're having a bad game? Because of the vader mislynch? What if I'm scum, and you've been right all along? That defeatist attitude is not something that I would expect from you, tbh.
And, a non-rhetorical question: you were in GSL 1. v7 early in day1 made small chit-chat, then did nothing but talk about Risen. Day2, he said "I'll be back later to give reads" and then disappeared until 10 minutes before the deadline. Did that never even give you pause here?
The only people you pursued at all with any kind of scum read day 1 were me and vader, while throwing around a bunch of town reads. That was partly what I was referring to when I said this (besides the joking about the apology):
On October 23 2012 11:01 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On October 23 2012 10:59 marvellosity wrote:
when have you ever known me to apologise? When have you ever been so wrong before (assuming you are town. which i'm not totally convinced of, ofc)? Certainly not in any game that I've played with you. I've literally never seen you make such a weak case, so if you believe that strongly in it, I'll expect that apology after I flip town.
In my experience, when town marv only has 1 or 2 reads, he feels damn sure about them (Jingle in Mad Men, Palmar in Rock Band, etc). And he's not usually (ever?) wrong. Town marv is occasionally wrong (gasp!), but when he is, he's wavering around a lot through different reads. Which just doesn't feel like what's been happening here.
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I Think Marv be like Scum Yo.
It's fairly hard to catch a player like marv on traditional reads, because his scum-play is devoid of egregious tells. However, when marv has a really long string of scumgames, he tends to get lazy, and his attitude begins to show. DeathNote Mini is a great example of this, and everything I've written in this game applies to that game as well. When marv gets lazy, he is very catchable on meta, and I've gathered several meta reads on him this game. Individually, I don't think they are damning, however, put together, and I believe they point strongly toward's marv's lazy-scum meta.
***Before I continue, let me state Hapa's policy-lynch rule #2***
If Marv is alive at lylo - LYNCH HIM. No exceptions.
Onward ahoy.
1) Marv's Lack of Suspicion
2) Over-Consistency
3) Emotional Detachment
4) The Insta-Lynch Mechanic
Marv's Lack of Suspicion
First let's take a look a town marv. Town marv is a very naturally suspicious person - he's someone who jumps on people for bad logic, and his natural inclination is to see scummy behavior in said bad logic. I want to point out a post in Rockband Mini that marv made - I think it exemplifies his townie thought process very well:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=369250¤tpage=23#445
In this post, marv is suspicious to slightly suspicious of the following people:
Myself, HiroPro, mkfuba, Zeph, austinmcc, and prplzh. That's 6 people - half of the players in the game.
In addition, take a look at his filter in the recently-concluded "Clothes Mini" (he's Harry Tasker).
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=374903&user=286145
Read it, and see how many people he's suspicious of on Day 1. He jumps around a lot on suspicion and really guns for people.
Now let's compare it to this game's marv
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=376602¤tpage=10#197
In one of his opening posts, he has town reads on DP, Austin, and Drazak.
In addition, he has been readily defending Z-Boson from Kei, indicating he has some sort of town-read on him as well.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=376602¤tpage=35#687
Furthermore, he recently had town-vibes on iamperfection.
That's 5 town reads in a game of 9 players - completely opposite of town marv. This is not "naturally-suspicious" marv - this is a completely different character.
Over Consistency
Marv's Opening Post:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=376602¤tpage=10#197
That leaves the two people I'm most interested in today, vader7 and Keirathi. Mebbe I'm about to look quite hypocritical citing activity and investment, but what can you do ^^
This is rather interesting, because marv tunnels v7 and Kei exclusively for the entirety of Day 1. This is so damn off from anything resembling his town play - town marv jumps around a lot, readily flip-flops reads, and is very reactionarily suspicious to players. Again, I refer you to Rockband Mini and Clothes Mini to see the contrast:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=374903&user=286145
^ In his clothes mini filter (especially relevant since it is also an insta-lynch game), look at how his suspicions pan out over the course of the game. He initially declares Ben a scumread, but then picks up and drops suspicions rapidly. He votes Ben, then John, then Ben again, then on Alan, then back to John... you get the idea. He cycles his votes several times throughout the game, whereas, he's only voted ONCE in this game (on v7).
Rockband Mini is similar:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=369250&user=140487
He declares Hiro his first scumread, then jumps onto Palmar (in pure OMGUS), then rails on players throught the day. His votes cycle from Hiro, to Palmar, to Austin, to Prplzh, all the while being generally suspicious of many players. Again, compare that to his tunneling of Kei and v7 throughout this game, and his solitary vote on v7.
Look at the above two games, then look at his gameplay here. He's only voted on one player, and his contributions on D1 were entirely spent on tunneling v7 and Kei. He hasn't been suspicious of one other person in this game on D1.
Emotional Detatchment
This is something more that I have a feel for when reading his filter this game. Marv is just very collected and emotionally devoid when pursuing reads.
I looked through his entire filter, and this is the only thing I could come up with that could be interpreted as any emotion at all:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=376602¤tpage=22#436
He's seemingly pissed off at Kei and uses a lot of rhetoric... but then the rest of his posts toward Kei are remarkably civil, even though he is one of marv's top scumreads. Let's compare that to other games:
On September 19 2012 01:53 marvellosity wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote: Palmar
fuck you
On September 19 2012 01:57 marvellosity wrote:
Palmar is being awful
he should die
he read my alignment correctly in NMM3 and I refuse to believe he'd so arbitrarily get it so wrong here
straight OMGUS, deal with it
(http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=369250&user=140487¤tpage=2)
Just read page 2 of his filter in Rockband.
His filter in Clothes Mini shows emotion, but in a more lost-townie way:
On October 20 2012 02:53 Harry Tasker wrote:
fuck me I'm so lost
On October 19 2012 09:57 Harry Tasker wrote:
I think it's negligent, but I also get townie feelings elsewhere in his filter (his discussions with me on John).
Ugh. Actually I don't like how he's (not) pushed your case either. I just find Ben significantly scummier - I don't see any townieness in his posts whereas I can see townieness in Alex's.
You should get the idea - just skim through his filters.
The Insta-Lynch Mechanic
I want to take a look at Clothes Mini and his attitude near the lynch deadline, as opposed to his attitude in this game. In this game, he has had one vote (on v7). He is remarkably clear and confident about who he wants his vote to be on:
On October 23 2012 06:56 marvellosity wrote:My head hurts. Now I know what it looks like when me and VE shout at each other for pages ^^ Unless I missed it, I don't think Z-Bo ever answer Kei's original question of where his v7 scumread appeared from? I've just been through Z-Bo's filter and it indeed just appears and I can't find an explanation. Hopefully I'm not being a fucking dumbass. Z-Bo, explain please? Further, what is your current read on vader and why? Hapa has the right idea with his drazak and v7 post. When two people are shouting at each other, the natural scum reaction is to let it roll, or even throw wood on to the fire, rather than actually do anything about making it stop. On a little sidenote, it's why I found austin's play kinda adorable, because he was trying to push a policy idea but was being roundly ignored, so his reaction was to keep pushing the same idea in the same way, only to be unsurprisingly ignored again  Anyway, vader fits perfectly into the throwing-wood-on-to-the-fire mould, basically egging on the aggressiveness in the thread when there was no need for him to do so. Also, unlike austin, I see his 'I'm going through filter' thing as pretty scummy - like he's going through the motions rather than trying to push something constructive into the thread. BUT LOOK, I'M LOOKING AT PEOPLE'S SHIT?! No. Don't buy it. Every time I see vader post, he's not making me think any more that he's town. This scumbo gotta hang. ##Vote vaderseven.
This isn't individually suspicious, but take a look at how indecisive he is in Clothes Mini near the deadline:
On October 20 2012 02:49 Harry Tasker wrote:
...
Also at the moment I just don't want to lynch Alex. Maybe he's scum manipulating me, but ugh, I just don't think so.
This leaves me lynching into Alan Schaefer, John Matrix, and Jack Slater. Due to busyness I've not re-read Alan's filter yet, but I will read his and Jack's this evening and see if I can come to a conclusion.
On October 20 2012 08:01 Harry Tasker wrote:
From a gameplay point of view I'd have to be as certain as can be we're definitely hitting red and I don't think I am.
And if we lynch John and he flips town then town was already given a crippling disadvantage to start with given not posting at all is both within the rules AND a strong scum strategy.
From a personal point of view the game is already ruined if John is town. This isn't a full-sized normal, or even a fucking mini with 12 players or whatever. 1/7 of our players isn't here. That's a really large chunk of the game. That just fucking sucks.
##Unvote
##Vote: John Matrix
On October 20 2012 08:18 Harry Tasker wrote:
What is there to talk about? Actually I think Douglas has a quite decent chance of flipping scum. But it doesn't supercede what I just wrote above.
Concluding Thoughts
In addition to all of the above, marv just really hasn't done anything to convince me that he's town. He's provided very little in the ways of original analysis on Day 1 - something he's very good about doing in his town play.
Finally, I suggest you all take a look at his filter in DeathNote Mini - it's strikingly similar to the patterns I've described above:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=363625&user=140487
Notably:
1) He opens with a scumread on BlackMamba24, votes him and never finds anyone else suspicious for the rest of D1
2) He does not jump around with votes/suspicions at all and is remarkably consistent.
3) He is very emotionally detached
I'm thinking at this point that marv has a higher chance of flipping scum than iamperfection.
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Sorry I stole your thunder Hapa
Basically you hit on my exact feelings, but I'm on my phone and much harder to go back through multiple games and quote multiple things.
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Anywho, I want to comment on Marv's suspicions on me:
My town meta is really really inconsistent at times. In particular, I'm good for making 2-3 horrifically bad cases in the early game - mostly because I post without proof-reading and I read filters faster than I should (confirmation bias ahoy). Now marv and I have played in several games, and he's been witness to these cases of mine over the last few months. It blows my mind that marv thinks I'm suspicious based on my iamperfection case - he of all people should be familiar with my town meta, yet he thinks I'm scummy for some reason.
However, while I'm good at making the occasionally bad case/point, I'm pretty confident in this one (as well as my iamperfection case, just not on that one point any more). I think it's out there for the town to see how different marv is this game.
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Well, I have a lot to answer for, apparently. I'll make a detailed defence if/when I'm still alive tomorrow.
One small tidbit I would note right now - my filter in Death Note over 7 cycles (taking out post-game talk) is as long as my filter is here during Night 1.
That's a whole different level of investment.
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On October 24 2012 07:37 Keirathi wrote:
And, a non-rhetorical question: you were in GSL 1. v7 early in day1 made small chit-chat, then did nothing but talk about Risen. Day2, he said "I'll be back later to give reads" and then disappeared until 10 minutes before the deadline. Did that never even give you pause here?
Yes it gave me pause, but the main thrust of my read on vader was never simply the absence. Read my posts and you can see that.
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Quite frankly marv, I'm less interested in hearing your response to a meta case (kinda hard to respond to a meta argument) and more interested in seeing you scumhunt.
You've been overall much more passive and disinterested than I've ever seen you play as town.
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I read the fucking case. I don't have massive emotional over-reactions every time I play town (see palmar omgus) nor do I very often play in a game with smurfs where I'm devoid of a lot of information I normally have.
How am I disinterested??
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On October 24 2012 08:35 marvellosity wrote:
I read the fucking case. I don't have massive emotional over-reactions every time I play town (see palmar omgus) nor do I very often play in a game with smurfs where I'm devoid of a lot of information I normally have.
How am I disinterested??
I don't think you're disinterested in the game, but you have been less interested in scum hunting than you normally are (yea yea, I'm being a hypocrite. Doesn't mean I'm wrong though.) Hapa was right, as town you are all over te place unless you have a damn strong read. When you aren't dead set on someone, you waver around jumping on little things until you're satisfied that that person is town, even if that person isnt your strongest scum read.
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On October 24 2012 08:35 marvellosity wrote:
I read the fucking case. I don't have massive emotional over-reactions every time I play town (see palmar omgus) nor do I very often play in a game with smurfs where I'm devoid of a lot of information I normally have.
How am I disinterested??
Disinterested in comparison to your town meta. You're so much more engaged in the game normally as town - you constantly adapt your reads, you gun for multiple players, you're suspicious of everyone, etc. That's just simply not your play this game, and your play is rather similar in structure to DeathNote.
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Circumstances in every game aren't the bloody same though.
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On October 24 2012 08:43 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On October 24 2012 08:35 marvellosity wrote:
I read the fucking case. I don't have massive emotional over-reactions every time I play town (see palmar omgus) nor do I very often play in a game with smurfs where I'm devoid of a lot of information I normally have.
How am I disinterested?? I don't think you're disinterested in the game, but you have been less interested in scum hunting than you normally are (yea yea, I'm being a hypocrite. Doesn't mean I'm wrong though.) Hapa was right, as town you are all over te place unless you have a damn strong read. When you aren't dead set on someone, you waver around jumping on little things until you're satisfied that that person is town, even if that person isnt your strongest scum read.
Taking out your usual 'meta', how easy did you find it to make progress this game? You made a few posts during the DP thing when I was away, but apart from that you struggled to make anything happen.Can you not see my perspective ??
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So what? I don't think the circumstances are different enough for you to show a completely different mentality this game.
And ya know what, you can ignore the "emotionality" stuff if you want. You still have to answer for your lack of general suspicion (very common in your town play), the disturbing consistency of suspicion (haven't seen it in your town play), and the comfort level with your vote (especially given that Clothes Mafia had the same lynch mechanic).
Or really you don't have to answer it - I'm not interested in hearing your response, because nothing can change my mind about your play thusfar. I'm far more interested in hearing your reads. In detail. If we're both alive tomorrow (you'll certainly be alive, I'm pretty convinced you're scum), you have some work to do. You need prove to me that your play thus far has been a crazy anomaly in your town play and that you're actually having a "bad game."
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On October 24 2012 08:47 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On October 24 2012 08:43 Keirathi wrote:On October 24 2012 08:35 marvellosity wrote:
I read the fucking case. I don't have massive emotional over-reactions every time I play town (see palmar omgus) nor do I very often play in a game with smurfs where I'm devoid of a lot of information I normally have.
How am I disinterested?? I don't think you're disinterested in the game, but you have been less interested in scum hunting than you normally are (yea yea, I'm being a hypocrite. Doesn't mean I'm wrong though.) Hapa was right, as town you are all over te place unless you have a damn strong read. When you aren't dead set on someone, you waver around jumping on little things until you're satisfied that that person is town, even if that person isnt your strongest scum read. Taking out your usual 'meta', how easy did you find it to make progress this game? You made a few posts during the DP thing when I was away, but apart from that you struggled to make anything happen.Can you not see my perspective ??
Of course I can understand having difficulty making up your mind in this game. But the way you tried to make your decision is just so different than the way you normally go about making that kind of decision.
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On October 24 2012 08:52 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On October 24 2012 08:47 marvellosity wrote:On October 24 2012 08:43 Keirathi wrote:On October 24 2012 08:35 marvellosity wrote:
I read the fucking case. I don't have massive emotional over-reactions every time I play town (see palmar omgus) nor do I very often play in a game with smurfs where I'm devoid of a lot of information I normally have.
How am I disinterested?? I don't think you're disinterested in the game, but you have been less interested in scum hunting than you normally are (yea yea, I'm being a hypocrite. Doesn't mean I'm wrong though.) Hapa was right, as town you are all over te place unless you have a damn strong read. When you aren't dead set on someone, you waver around jumping on little things until you're satisfied that that person is town, even if that person isnt your strongest scum read. Taking out your usual 'meta', how easy did you find it to make progress this game? You made a few posts during the DP thing when I was away, but apart from that you struggled to make anything happen.Can you not see my perspective ?? Of course I can understand having difficulty making up your mind in this game. But the way you tried to make your decision is just so different than the way you normally go about making that kind of decision.
Apparently marv's difficulty with this game = tunneling his first two scum interests all of D1 and having town reads on everyone else.
Yeah ok.
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EPT
