Just for clarification: I don't control S&B's target at all.

Here's what happens:

S&B Targets X.
I target Y

Because S&B targetted X, I also target X.
Because I targeted Y, S&B also targets Y.

Therefore,
S&B targets X and Y
I also target X and Y.

Keirathi

United States4679 Posts

October 07 2012 06:13 GMT

#1059

I haven't read through the games yet (I'll do that tomorrow), but for now:

##unvote

You're right, some of the things just feel like something weird for scum to do. I've had an extreme, extreme case of confirmation bias, trying to make up scummy explanations for everything he's done. And I certainly believe they are all possible. But, I should take my own advice: most often, the easiest answer is the correct one.

That said, my next highest read is you, gonzaw.

But for now I think i'm going to try to sleep and clear my head, and maybe read through with a fresh perspective tomorrow. Maybe even take some of my old-fashioned unbiased notes.

Keirathi

United States4679 Posts

October 07 2012 06:28 GMT

#1062

Honestly I could make a case for you being either one. Hell, I LIKE the cases for both teams.

I'm not really sure what that should lead me to think though.

Keirathi

United States4679 Posts

October 07 2012 06:37 GMT

#1066

Jingle was scum in Mad Men, and Newbie XVIII. Not sure about more than that.

I haven't reread Can't Believe, but iirc most of the cases against you were more of the variety that you weren't reading the thread, and therefore had a bunch of dumb questions and analyses that just didn't make sense.

Keirathi

United States4679 Posts

October 07 2012 06:52 GMT

#1068

On October 07 2012 15:37 gonzaw wrote:
If I was scum, you know I'd just post shit all this day and let town bandwagon on Drazerk (whatever alignment he is).
At the very least if I thought Draz was the other scum and I wanted to save him I would have put another lynch candidate on the table by now (and you guys know I'm not "scared" of doing shit like that as scum) instead of mumbling all over the place.

Just so you know, I don't buy this defense. You're either town or scum by your merits this game, not what you "would" do.

I can give you multiple examples of scum pushing bandwagons off of townies to buy some town cred. And it would make even more sense in this game, because scum, IMO, should be in panic mode. There are 2 scum dead, and only 2 townies taken out along the way.

Keirathi

United States4679 Posts

October 07 2012 07:03 GMT

#1071

On October 07 2012 15:59 gonzaw wrote:
^^ Okay, don't buy it then and ignore it (you may be right about that though. I don't think I would personally try to take a bandwagon off a townie and looking scummy in the process...but I guess there are other players out there that would).
I'd like you to read my previous games though.

Marv stopped a day1 bandwagon in...Normal Mini 3? I think...on Bluelightz, and lived the entire game.

Anyways, I said like an hour ago that I was going to sleep, yet I still sit here hitting f5. Damn you.

I really am going to sleep now. I'll do as much in depth digging that I can tomorrow before the deadline.

Keirathi

United States4679 Posts

October 07 2012 07:05 GMT

#1073

Damnit, I did it again.

Austin was killed night 1 in Can't Believe. Sciberbia (his mason buddy) was the one who went so hard against talismania on day 2.

Keirathi

United States4679 Posts

October 07 2012 07:12 GMT

#1076

On October 07 2012 16:08 gonzaw wrote:

Show nested quote +

marv was killed on N1, austin on N2
I remember both of them leading the lynch on talis. Although that implication does mean austin lead the lynch as well.

Also aha! You won't get any sleep today >:D

Oh, you're right.

I just remembered sciberbia making the huge case on talis (and then, Matt following it up), and then sciberbia refusing to claim after austin died even though it was pretty apparent he was the other Mason.

Anyways, carry on.

Keirathi

United States4679 Posts

October 07 2012 17:32 GMT

#1110

On October 08 2012 02:29 Drazerk wrote:
Me flipping town however does confirm Gonzaw is scum so win is a win

No it doesn't. Quit being dense.

It adds circumstantial evidence.

Keirathi

United States4679 Posts

October 07 2012 17:44 GMT

#1111

So, something about gonzaw:

I've been reading his filters from Can't Believe (town) and Liar Game (scum). His filter this game feels much more like Can't Believe than Liar game. From all the town reads, to the weird setup speculation...it just feels more like Can't Believe.

I still think his play this game could make sense as Black Scum, since they would have wanted to remain hidden and be townie-like, but he's moved way down my list of possible Red Scum.

Keirathi

United States4679 Posts

October 07 2012 18:04 GMT

#1113

Okay austin: who do YOU want to lynch. You're making arguments for both Drazerk and gonzaw, which is starting to get a little suspicious.

Keirathi

United States4679 Posts

October 07 2012 18:22 GMT

#1114

Also this game is pretty frustrating. Almost to the end of day 3 and there's not a single person aside from s&b that I'm even reasonable certain is town.

Keirathi

United States4679 Posts

October 07 2012 19:02 GMT

#1123

On October 08 2012 03:57 Drazerk wrote:
You all have to put on your surprised faces or its Drazerk hes a fucking dick posts.

Maybe someone will go a bit overboard on the post and someone will call it out.

For the love of god I hope someone looks at S+B / Kei when you see just how OP my one shot actually was and how it going missing is really bizarre.

Still Gonzaw / Hiro will probably go on the chopping boards which prolongs the two people you really need to kill before Lylo.

Future speculation is fun

Did you take into account that maybe, just MAYBE that there is a bus driver who switched Mementoss and S&B and therefore your shot actually killed Mementoss?

I dont know that there is a bus driver. But I think its quite possible because 1) there was one in Aperture 1 and 2) Portal Edition just screams bus driver/position swap mechanics.

Certainly not conclusive, but if there is a bus driver, the S&B and Mementoss swap certainly makes sense.

Keirathi

United States4679 Posts

October 07 2012 19:03 GMT

#1126

Oh, immune to bus driver effects.

Hmm.

Keirathi

United States4679 Posts

October 07 2012 19:17 GMT

#1133

Yea, I don't see how him surviving the shot makes him more likely to be scum than town.

It just means something happened that you don't know about.

Keirathi

United States4679 Posts

October 07 2012 19:17 GMT

#1135

gonzaw: i already said I didn't target S&B night 1.

Keirathi

United States4679 Posts

October 07 2012 19:20 GMT

#1139

On October 08 2012 04:19 gonzaw wrote:

Show nested quote +

My bad (I don't remember who you targeted).

Drazerk, is it possible some scum targeted you with some ability that "weakened" your shot or did something?

I never said who I targetted, just that I didn't target S&B.

Keirathi

United States4679 Posts

October 07 2012 19:25 GMT

#1146

On October 08 2012 04:23 austinmcc wrote:
Wait, hold on.

Your shot doesn't go through medic protects? Then how did snb get shot and take damage if he was medic protected?

S&B protects two targets every night. 3 if he actually inherently protects himself too, but i'm not actually sure about that.

Keirathi

United States4679 Posts

October 07 2012 19:28 GMT

#1149

On October 08 2012 04:26 austinmcc wrote:

Show nested quote +

I was lumping bodyguard in with veteran abilities though, i.e. you have an extra life with which to take shots. I guess we don't know that, but if bodyguard is considered a veteran ability, then it wouldn't have saved snb.

Are you even reading what you're typing?

Drazerk is saying that he things S&B was medic protected, and thats why he didnt die. Therefor, if S&B was medic protected, then S&B still protected 2 OTHER people. If either of those 2 people got shot, then S&B would have received a hit notification.

Keirathi

United States4679 Posts

October 07 2012 19:42 GMT

#1159

Oh, I see what you're saying. You think that a medic protecting him would therefore mean he wouldn't lose a life for protecting someone else.

That seems like a weird interaction.

I'll try to go find some games that have a bodyguard role, but that's not the way I expect bodyguard to work. That would basically mean that the medic was protecting 3 people night 1.

Let me explain how I expect bodyguard to work with a hypothetical, before I go digging:

VisceraEyes is 1-shot Bodyguard that dies if he successfully protects a KP (IE something useful for protecting a Mayor or Innocent Child, etc).
marv is a medic.
Ace is an innocent child.

VE protects Ace on night 1. marv protects VE. Scum shoots Ace. I would expect VE to die, because he died from his own role, rather than from KP.