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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
I think I'm just going to ignore any posts where you talk to/about each other for the time being. I agree that Jingle had some good points about gonzaw, I don't agree that they make him more likely scum than Drazerk because I could hypothetically see a town gonzaw doing them. Nothing Drazerk has done gives me a green feeling besides his interactions with me early in day1 before he got on his soapbox about S&B. We should be voting Drazerk today. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On October 06 2012 12:45 gonzaw wrote: Keirathi, any thoughts on ghost? Your connection theory does make some sense. His arguments for ghost being town were all based on the fact that we were giving town cred (on his suggestion, I might add) to the people who voted for iamperfection (and, by association, the person that iamperfection voted for). And Crossfire's whole reasoning for voting iamperfection was in fact a chainsaw defense of ghost to begin with. The ironic thing here is that its possible that iamperfection inadvertently found scum based on one post when he was scum himself. But, connection theories like that can be fabricated by scum (or just misread/fished for by townies). In GSL, on the last day Bluelightz actually called me out as scum based on a connection theory between me and Dirkzor, who was town. So what has ghost actually done this game? Lets go through it chronologically since its pretty short 1) Hard tunnel me. (This is a recurring them, so I'm only going to list it once). Honestly I can't say that I think he's scum because of that. His reasonings felt terribad, but terribad logic isn't a strictly scummy trait. I've definitely had my fair share of it from time to time (hint: iamperfection). 2) Call Hiro town for being "too dumb to be scum" 3) Said something was off about austin's play this game and that he was going to read some of austin's previous games, but never followed up on it. So far, this is one of the scummiest things in his filter. He literally just doesnt mention him again. At all. Add to that the fact that this comment just "happened" to come at a time when austin was under some pressure, and I think you can clearly see why I interpret this as scummy. 4) Small pokes at Mementoss and JH 5) Wishy-washy read on Nisani, scumread on S&B 6) I'm really sorry I've been so busy, I fully intend to catch up tomorrow. Items on the agenda include: Try and understand what XFire has been spending so much time in thread defending me: I'm grateful, but I don't get it. Then: On my first read, I took XFire's posting to be buddying, which in retrospect, I don't think it was. It looks more just like he was trying to figure out exactly what was happening in thread. Since he wasn't buddying, now he's my buddy <3 Here's something that gives direct evidence toward them buddying. But would Crossfire+ghost scumteam really be THAT obvious about it? They would have had to have been SUPREMELY confident that neither would flip. 7) Another wishy-washy read about Nisani, then drops his vote on S&B and disappears until the deadline and the full night cycle. Okay, this is where the wishy-washiness gets to be scummy. Here it is, quoted for reference: On October 04 2012 23:26 ghost_403 wrote: I'm having trouble writing down my thoughts on Nisani at the moment. I need some more time to come back and analyze exactly why, and whether he's town or scum. In the meantime, I'm thinking that S+B might have rolled 3rd party. Last time I checked, 3rd party was anti-town, so I think I'm gonna ##vote strongandbig at least for the time being. It feels 100% like he's being non-committal to Nisani because he doesn't care if Nisani gets lynched instead. And don't forget, Nisani was leading the vote at the time and he still couldn't be arsed enough to give a real read. 8) Drops his vote on S&B in the same post, then disappears until the deadline, and the full night cycle. 9) Attempts to discredit gonzaw about his setup speculation Okay, so that's basically all of the meaningful interactions he's had this game. I think by far that 3 and 5/7 are the strongest points. + Show Spoiler + A conjecture I had that was purely speculation: I was thinking more about the Nisani thing before I posted this. Lets assume that ghost is black scum for a minute. So, what is he saying with his wishy-washy stance on Nisani and vote on S&B? I think he genuinely thinks S&B is on the other scum team, and that Nisani is town. Therefore, saving Nisani from the lynch and getting S&B lynched instead buys him town cred on two fronts. I'm sure you can see how that would be beneficial to him. Now, some supporting evidence for that theory. Ghost only started going after S&B after Drazerk started claiming that he shot S&B and that S&B survived and was fakeclaiming his roll. Which, conveniently, is about the same time he stopped mentioning me. And, since the day post, since he missed the night, he isn't mentioning me or S&B anymore, because he knows that since the black team has 2 members, the most likely scenario is that the red team only has 2 members as well. Therefore me+S&B having supporting roleclaims doesn't fit for being scum, and he dropped us. This honestly feels like he's trying to scumhunt. I'm just not sure if he's scumhunting for the black team, or for town. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On October 06 2012 14:47 gonzaw wrote: lol, I didn't actually expect you to make that much sense. . Ouch. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
First, lets start with Xfire's filter: Well, there's basically nothing. The only thing even close to an opinion he gave on gonzaw for the entire game was this post: On October 04 2012 10:32 Crossfire99 wrote: Ok, so I don't know if my vision is getting clouded by my opinion on how he's playing, but I think Jingle is kinda playing like a dick. Well i think he's acting like a dick towards gonzaw. His other posts don't seem so bad. He's just constantly attacking gonzaw in a dickish way and his concerns seem to be more petty concerns when compared to the overall view of gonzaw (at least how I see gonzaw). This leads me to see gonzaw as more townie and jingle more scummy. Certainly not conclusive, but I see this as much more scumbuddy'ish than him calling ghost town 4-5 times during the game. He never questioned gonzaw, gave an opinion, or had any interaction whatsoever with gonzaw. Okay, now onto gonzaw's filter: On October 01 2012 23:44 gonzaw wrote: Hmm, okay people, what do you guys think about lynching one of these guys: JingleHell Mementos Nisani CrossFire austin iamperfection And if you'd switch to one of them, why would you do it? Like I said before I have that same "weird" feeling about them, but again it seems none of them other than Mementos decided to show up to contribute at all. On October 02 2012 08:45 gonzaw wrote: **snip** ghost and Nisani are likely scum I think, Mementos and Crossfire are there too. ghost/Nisani/Mementos/Crossfire/Drazerk I think all remaining scum are in there **snip** Crossfire: This guy HAS to be scum. He has done 0 contributions at all and spent 70% of his post "joking" with Drazerk about how he's "confused" about him. On October 02 2012 10:34 gonzaw wrote: @Crossfire: You know, the fact that you forgot it's plurality lynch and not majority lynch actually makes you look worse, since you parked your vote on iamperfection and left. If you were scum maybe you thought there would be a NL so you thought iamperfection was safe before disappearing. Is this the case? I don't know. If you don't give more thorough reads and actively participate in discussion while giving your thoughts on things discussed and your thought process (<-most important one) I and the rest of town can't know for sure. + Show Spoiler + Note, the above quote was also the same post where he said "Town, you impress me". Jingle pointed that out in his case against gonzaw as being disassociated from town. Maybe a weak point, but a point none-the-less. Crossfire, I'd also like more contributions, specially who you think is scum/suspicious or at least who you have doubts on. Try to take some initiative. I'm getting better vibes out of Crossfire since his interactions with me and other townies seem genuine this N1, at least that's the guy feeling I get. For fucks sake when will Crossfire or ghost ever come here to do something? It kind of bums me out Hiro/austin/Crossfire/ghost/Keirathi/Jingle didn't do anything all D2 right up until the very end but I thought it wouldn't have mattered (once Nisani flipped red) If I have to change my town reads on Hiro/ghost/austin/Crossfire/Jingle then I may end up getting confused again. Being in this situation also makes me doubt the other players still (Mattchew, austin and Crossfire). On October 05 2012 13:14 gonzaw wrote: Hell, if I'm so "obvious" scum it should be easy as hell for you to make that case on me. If I'm scum I'm basically begging you to catch me, convince everybody I'm scum and get me lynched. So why aren't you taking that chance? Don't you want other guys like austin/Crossfire/etc who think I'm town to realize what a scummy monster I am? This is a big one I think. Because nowhere do I see that crossfire ever expressed huge sentiment that gonzaw was town. Just a minor comment in a chainsaw defense of gonzaw. Where the hell are ghost, Mattchew, Crossfire, ghost and Hiro? None of them posted at all since D2 ended (except Mattchew for that unrelated post he made). Crossfire and Mattchew are town, but that seems obvious (still had quite a time trying to figure out if they were fooling me or not). Specially because of their NL shenanigans on D2. If S&B is town that NL business makes no fucking sense as scum (why try to force a NL if you can lynch the medic by doing nothing, and you can also lynch another medic/vet by switching your vote?) Pre-Post edit: sorry for all the quotes. I kinda feel like I needed them all to make my point. So anyways, my point. Your day 1 stance was HAS TO BE SCUM. And he did nothing (that I can tell) to change your mind, you just never pushed him. Since then, you've constantly lumped him into your lists. Like, almost every single time you've made a list, his name as been there. Its a pretty weak heuristic, but scum DO love to add their scumbuddy to their lists. We've all seen it countless times. Also, You constantly called him out for more activity, but spent a lot of time not actually talking about it. And, add on to that that since the flip, you've been OBSESSED with Black Scum. Outside of Jingle, I don't think there's anything else you've talked about. How much it changes the game, speculating about team sizes, calling ghost Black Scum, etc etc. It's basically all you've talked about, and that feels really Black Scum'y. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
Drazerk red team. His self preservation kicked into overdrive once iamperfection died. gonzaw black team, because of above post. (ghost as a possible, but I think less likely at this point, backup). good game. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
Is it just me, or do both of these things sound like things that would be EXTREMELY weird for a townie to say? On October 06 2012 14:47 gonzaw wrote: If they were normal scum I'd say it's too obvious. It's still possible they counted on BS being hidden most of the game (like they were), specially after both of them were "almost confirmed town" because of interactions with iamperfection. But I think this is kind of stretching it and making leaps of logic. Hopefully that interaction doesn't mean much. On October 06 2012 15:44 gonzaw wrote: Anyways, as long as I'm not lynched today it doesn't worry me that much though. I'll have D4 to "defend myself" as black scum if it ever comes down to it. The first one sounds like he wants to still lynch ghost, even though he came tot he conclusion that the interactions don't make much sense from a scumteam perspective. The second sounds an awfully lot like someone with one of those non-standard KP roles that he's been so obsessed with (arsonist?). Maybe voting him over Drazerk today is a good idea. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On October 07 2012 00:15 austinmcc wrote: Okay ... so. Aperture 1 black team had cell leader, VE who targeted someone and inverted whatever actions were taken on them (alignments opposite, protects did KP, KP did protect, etc.), 1 shot janitor, and then nisani as inventor. No factional KP, no inherent KP roles, but VE could kill by chance and nisani could invent KP items and give them to teammates if he wanted. Also an anti-town role in janitor. Given the single NK each night and the lack of black kp in the full, black probably doesn't have factional KP. I'm down with that assumption. With the links between ghost and crossfire, I mainly want to see crossfire come in and provide some information. I'd like to see a roleclaim, and if we've got a rolecop, he's a good target tonight to confirm whatever he claims. So many of the black roles from aperture 1 were or could be seriously anti-town, so I want to know what we're dealing with before we just leave black scum for later. On numbers, I don't know exactly what to expect. Multi-faction games have more scum afaik, because scum can target each other, right? And we had a lot of protective roles. If there are 3 black scum, then I was thinking the third (if ghost is #2) would be hiropro or maybe mattchew. I know hiropro claimed he was going to busy up til the weekend, but he's sort of coasted by because of lynching iamperfection. (actually, scratch mattchew off that. looking back over mattchew, I think I was just picking up on posts that say "mattchew lazy" which makes me think of scum mattchew - + Show Spoiler + On October 03 2012 07:07 Mattchew wrote: i am actively lurking debating if i want to put in the effort for a post on people now or later On October 03 2012 15:42 Mattchew wrote: tomorrow i will come back with the wisdom of 1,000 cares and shits cause today i just didnt give any The links to Gonzaw feel tenuous compared to Crossfire <--> ghost, but maybe. I'll have to look at those a little more. Have you read like....any of the thread since the day post? This post feels so careless and not well thought out :o 1) Crossfire is dead. There's no way he's going to come in and provide information like a role claim. 2) Gonzaw made a good post about the scum numbers. I think its pretty damn unlikely that there are 3 Black Scum. Because, again, I don't think Black Scum has more people that Red Scum, so for Black SCum to have 3, Red Scum also has to have 3. Which gives 6 scum in a 13 player game. Yea, I don't really even see that as a possibility. 3) Do you really think two people going as far as to SAY THEY WERE BUDDYING EACH OTHER makes more sense as a scumteam than two people who just casually mentioned each other throughout the game? No dialog, no real interaction, just an occasional mention. I'll give you that I haven't played THAT many mafia games, but I've never seen two mafia teamates be that blatant about buddying. And it makes even less sense under the assumption that there are only 2 players on the team. I've played a 2 scum game (GSL 1), and I spent the entirety of the game trying to distance myself from my partner so that if one of us flipped, there wouldn't be things like that Crossfire<-->ghost stuff in my filter. I just don't see it being that big of a possibility. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
Open his filter and ctrl+f Keir. He spent quite a lot of time giving me town reads too. And I never even mentioned him once. Basically my interactions with him are exactly the same as Ghost's, minus me making a comment about him buddying me. If you want to believe that there are 3 scum on each team, then I think you could certainly make the argument that me and S&B are part of his team if you think that his interactions with ghost were scummy. But since I know that I am town, then I don't find it that unlikely that Crossfire spent time buddying another person who wasn't in his faction. Especially controversial townies that he could say "I told you so" after we flipped if we ever got lynched. And here's the real kicker for me (yea, I already talked about this in my gonzaw post, but I think its a really, really strong connection): On October 05 2012 13:14 gonzaw wrote: Hell, if I'm so "obvious" scum it should be easy as hell for you to make that case on me. If I'm scum I'm basically begging you to catch me, convince everybody I'm scum and get me lynched. So why aren't you taking that chance? Don't you want other guys like austin/Crossfire/etc who think I'm town to realize what a scummy monster I am? Literally the only mention of gonzaw in Crossfire's entire filter is: On October 04 2012 10:32 Crossfire99 wrote: Ok, so I don't know if my vision is getting clouded by my opinion on how he's playing, but I think Jingle is kinda playing like a dick. Well i think he's acting like a dick towards gonzaw. His other posts don't seem so bad. He's just constantly attacking gonzaw in a dickish way and his concerns seem to be more petty concerns when compared to the overall view of gonzaw (at least how I see gonzaw). This leads me to see gonzaw as more townie and jingle more scummy. He's not saying that gonzaw is townie. He's just saying that, during the shitfit, that gonzaw seems townier than Jingle. So where did gonzaw get so much confidence in Crossfire's read of him? Because, after that, the only other post that Crossfire made before he died said: On October 06 2012 08:00 Crossfire99 wrote: Ok, I'm gonna post my reads that I have right now. I am sticking with my same townie view of Mattchew, hiro, and ghost due to the day 1 votes. I believe the strong and keirathi claims, so I see them as town right now. **SNIP** After him, I think either jingle or gonzaw need to die. I was leaning towards jingle earlier, but now some people have brought up suspicions on gonzaw and now I'm not sure of my earlier reads on either of them. I will need to some serious reading tomorrow to figure it if we want to lynch one of them. Anyway, we should lynch drazerk tomorrow. Something about that just feels extremely off. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On October 07 2012 08:44 Drazerk wrote: 3 teams of 4 That makes the most sense to me right now. Rofl. Care to lay out your teams, then? | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On October 07 2012 09:33 gonzaw wrote: I know what you are implying....that you are an Aperture Science executive. That flavour doesn't really make it any better, considering the robot that guy created just flipped scum. Since you apparently found what he's talking about, care to share? I'm loathe to wade through the cess pool that is his filter. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
Also any reads at all? You haven't given an opinion on anything except calling gonzaw's one post terrible, but even that you didn't call him scum. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On October 07 2012 09:58 Drazerk wrote: Sure Kei and then you lose because S+B was scum If S&B is scum at this point, I'll fucking eat my hat. And post pictures of it. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On October 07 2012 10:48 Keirathi wrote: If S&B is scum at this point, I'll fucking eat my hat. And post pictures of it. EBWOP: More to the point, I'll rage at GreyMist for lying in my role PM, *THEN* I'll eat my hat. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
That plan literally makes 0 sense whatsoever. IF he is scum (god, how many times do I have to give reasons that he's not? maybe I should just get flipped...), then of course he's going to tell you he's targetting X, while in reality he's shooting Y. The chance of overlap is pretty small, especially considering we've only been having 1 KP each night. Your chance of catching him as scum with that plan is remarkably tiny. And, assuming he's town (because he is town), what if there *IS* overlap and 2 KP go through to the person he targetted and therefor dies? You just "confirmed" scum on a townie (ironically at the same % chance of having caught him as scum if he is scum). | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
On October 07 2012 11:17 gonzaw wrote: If he's scum, he says he's targeting X but shoots Y, and the other scum shoots X....he's fucked. I'm saying there's a pretty small chance that he would say he was protecting an X that is going to be killed by the other scum team. On October 07 2012 11:17 gonzaw wrote: If there is overlap and 2 KP go through and he dies...he flips town...so what's the problem? Wait, does S&B die? If so, I guess that makes sense. I was just thinking "Herp Derp I'm a 1KP medic and I just got lynched because scum double stacked KP on the target I called out and 'confirmed' me as lying." | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
First, we don't know for sure that S&B's role even protects himself if he is the target of a shot. I know I didn't target S&B night 1, so he didn't protect himself via our combined powers. So does he only protect the person he's targeting (and I'm targeting, by association), or does he protect himself, his target, and my target? That seems a little...OP, but I guess possible. We could use some clarification from him, if he has any. Second, if we assume that S&B's protection applies to direct shots on himself as well, your conjecture still doesn't prove that Drazerk shot S&B, only that Drazerk shot either S&B, S&B's target, or my target. Not that there is a huge difference in those two things, but when you add in the fact that there was a jail from mementoss and an actual medic protect from nisani on night 1 as well that we don't know anything about, it totally changes all the possibilities, IMO. + Show Spoiler + Now onto wild conjecture that means absolutely nothing and no one should even pay any attention to: What about this version of events from night 1? Drazerk shot S&B. A bus driver (I still maintain there is one; "Portal Edition" just screams bus driver to me) switched Mementoss and S&B, presumably to get S&B killed rather than Mementoss who they thought was town. So Drazerk killed Mementoss via the bus, and someone else shot one of mine or S&B's targets (to trigger the hit notification). Then Drazerk gets his panties all in a bunch about S&B living when it had absolutely nothing to do with S&B being scum. Obviously has no bearing whatsoever on Drazerk's alignment, because it could play out the same either way. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
We've had a godfather/JOAT, medicwatcher, a (arguably powerful and weak at the same time) conditional 5-shot day vig, and a dual-target bodyguard+roleblockimmunity pair. Vig-DT would make more sense, consistency wise, than plain 'ol 1-shot vig just based on the roles we know. But there are a lot of roles that we don't know, and trying to guess what the host gave all 13 players is an extreme exercise in futility. Also, it strikes me as odd that Drazerk is sticking to his Cave Johnson "claim", whenever the Lemon Grenade didn't even work. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
Add in the fact that, taken together, mine+S&B's roles make us virtually invincible at night if we just target each other until all of his unknown amount of BP vests are gone. If Drazerk is scum, and worried about S&B continually hounding him all game, it could make some sense to push S&B as hard as possible and try to get him lynched over Nisani. *Note: I am not saying this is in fact how it happened. Just reasonable plausibility for why scum Drazerk could have wanted to make sure S&B was lynched over Nisani. | ||
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