So, I had an interesting revelation last night. I didn't share it until now, because austin's answer to my "What is your role and why did you visit me last night?" question could have completely changed this conclusion. IE, if he said "I didn't visit you, I actually visited HiroPro" then we would know Matt was lying. Knowing that I was basing my whole conclusion on the assumption that Matt wasn't lying, all scum austin would have had to do was make one little lie and I think the whole town would have been gung-ho on Matt. (To be fair, gonzaw could be lying too, but I would be much, much, much more incline to believe that Matt was lying solely based on the amount of effort gonzaw would have had to put into that as a fake-claim, whereas Matt just threw out some names)
Anyways, here's the revelation:
Austin CAN'T a traditional KP role UNLESS I am currently in the Rat's Next OR there is another protective role who protected me last night, and doesn't get hit notification.
Why's that? you might ask.
So, lets look at what's been claimed:
1) I protected Hiro 2) Matt bussed me and Hiro 3) gonzaw tracked austin to Hiro
So, what does that mean. Well first, Matt bussing me and Hiro after I protected Hiro means that Hiro no longer had S&B's bodyguard protection. Therefore, if Hiro didn't die from austin visiting him, it either means that I was in the Rat's Nest, another medic role protected me, or austin wasn't delivering KP.
Edit1: Bleh, I keep having post-note revelations that mean I need to come back and add something (IE, original draft didn't have the possibility of another medic to protect me, but I guess theoretically it is possible). Anyways, next thing I wanted to add: it's also possible that Hiro is some kind of night-immune role, and austin did actually shoot Hiro and Hiro just survived. Not sure how likely that is, but again its a possibility that I didn't think of when I first had my revelation. Honestly at this point I'm debating on whether I should even post this because there are so many conditionals to it being a correct postulation.
Also, if it wasn't clear, I came to this conclusion last night but I decided to wait until today to post it.
On October 10 2012 01:24 Keirathi wrote: S&B targetted Matt night1 anyways.
But, no one has claimed to be RB'd this game. Maybe there aren't even RB notifications?
Unlikely, given one of iamperfection's JOAT abilities:
(3) Light Bridge: You place a light bridge in the test chamber, giving the illusion that the test will be easier to solve. The subject will not be told they were roleblocked this night.
IAMP was dead D1, he couldn't have used that ability (and I suppose that's the only ability like that in the game)
I also thought it was possible Nisani was actually driven with Mementos/Mattchew, so he actually protected Mementos and got nobody visited him, which is why I tracked him to Mementos... ...then again the only bus driver seems to be Matt that didn't claim that, plus if Nisani protected Mementos he wouldn't have been killed and he would have seen scum visiting Mem....so no that doesn't make sense either
Just to clarify (because I was confused too, and starting to think you were lying), Nisani didn't actually get watcher information until the NEXT night. So if he watched Matt on night 1, he would get information on who visited Matt during day2 and (presumably?) night 2. So the fact that he had no information doesn't mean that Matt wasn't targeted night 1, because Nisani wouldn't have had that information.
On October 10 2012 01:42 JingleHell wrote: Well, since this seems to be happening, I'm Rick, The Adventure Core! I can go visit the person directly below me on the list at night, doing nothing, but avoiding KP directed at me.
That's why I've been pushy and hostile (and it looks like I've been vindicated about Gonzaw having an anti-town wincon, so I wasn't so far off with the primary target of that path). I was hoping to make scum try to hit me and waste their KP. That's also why I waited so long to claim, I wanted to be very sure it was happening en masse before giving that one up.
And no, my role doesn't make the other person get hit, it just gets me out of harms way. I've received no notifications of failed hits on me, but I don't know if I would since I'm actively avoiding the KP, rather than having it hit me and fail.
So...you're a permanent Bulletproof Townie, as long as there is someone below you in the player list? :o
Unless Hiro or ghost claims Chell, then Matt probably isn't lying. Unless gonzaw and Matt are both scum on the same team and came up with the traitor theory to give credence to Matt claiming Chell....but they would have had to know that there is no Chell (which makes more sense than it normally would if they were given fake claims).
Something worth(?) noting: S&B's specific role description was anti-hider, I believe? With JH being a hider, its certainly some circumstantial evidence to think about.
On October 10 2012 04:11 Keirathi wrote: Something worth(?) noting: S&B's specific role description was anti-hider, I believe? With JH being a hider, its certainly some circumstantial evidence to think about.
And, my specific role description was anti-roleblocker. Which fits with GlaDOS being the Godfather Roleblocking Jack of All Trades.
On October 10 2012 04:42 austinmcc wrote: Oh ghoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooost.
Would you like to claim? If everyone is being truthful, you used something on HiroPro N2. And HiroPro redirected to Gonzaw N2, so barring funny business, your action should have actually ... taken place on Gonzaw?
HiroPro/Gonzaw, do either of you know how the tracking would come out in that situation?
What if there were multiple actions that targetting Hiro night2? Hiro's role description makes it sound like it would randomly pick if there were multiples, and one of them would be redirected while the rest would land. And, we don't know who you, ghost, or S&B targetted.
austin: you said you misplaced the day3 player list. Are you positive that ghost and Hiro changed placed after night 2, or could it have been last night?
The edit post day-flip was him cleaning up the strikethrough tags. There were some trailing [/s]'s and stuff that I noticed he fixed, and Mementoss wasn't struckthrough but is now.
So, going back through Ghost's filter, he says this on day 2:
On October 04 2012 04:54 ghost_403 wrote: \o\
Pictured above: ghost_403 running around with his hair on fire, which is incidentally what he's been doing for the last two days.
Should be around later tonight to actually play some mafia. brb
Now, from iamperfection's role PM:
"(3) Light Bridge: You place a light bridge in the test chamber, giving the illusion that the test will be easier to solve. The subject will not be told they were roleblocked this night."
And now, here's where it gets interesting:
ghost seems to be claiming that he was roleblocked night 1? But, obviously he couldn't have been roleblocked by GlaDOS because GlaDOS was dead. And lightbridge wouldn't have given him a roleblock notification anyways. Maybe ghost is claiming that he's in the Rat's Nest, though?
Well, that quote from him feels really weird when I read back through his filter.
It almost feels like it had to have been serving some specific purpose. There are 3 things he said that seem weird and don't fit with basically any of the rest of his comments: 1) Hair on Fire 2) 8s look like 3s when you're hungry 3) Now to the kitchen!
Like, they all feel like breadcrumbs to me, but what is he crumbing?
On October 10 2012 10:55 gonzaw wrote: Anyways why do you guys even bother breadcrumbing your role? Just don't breadcrumb anything and claim you are an anti-town traitor. You'll be instantly considered confirmed town....
...although seriously I didn't think everybody would believe my claim >_> I guess I didn't really got my hopes up with you guys :/
I haven't breadcrumbed my role at all
Also, I'm not entirely convinced by your claim. Some key things stick out to me: how much you talked about how hard it would be for you to fake claim as scum, and the way you kept putting your claim of (okay i'm going to claim, wait no i'm not, well maybe i'll claim later, but i have a plan now, etcetc). I will say that your claim, if fake, took an extreme amount of effort, which makes it pretty unlikely, but I haven't completely ruled it out yet. Especially if you+matt are somehow a scum-team and coordinated the Chell/Traitor thing.
I...don't think I want to lynch ghost today. Not saying why until he claims though, since I don't want to tell him what I'm thinking so that he knows what to say. But I do have an idea of what his role is (and honestly, I'm curious if I'm right).
Honestly, my head keeps telling me that we should lynch JH today. It can't be a coincidence that he claimed Hider, and S&B's role specifically calls him an Anti-Hider when my calls me an Anti-Roleblocker.
On October 10 2012 11:10 gonzaw wrote: Also: What do you guys think about that Jingle speculation?
That you're completely reaching and it has 0 basis in fact. Just randomly throwing out a theory with 0 evidence to back it up. What I mean is, nothing in your explanation explained why the framer would be JingleHell. His name was just tacked on there.
I really don't understand your "There's no way scum wrote that" thing about JH. It's never made sense to me, but I haven't had any real reason to be suspicious of him so I haven't questioned it. Maybe you could explain it, because it basically sounded like "there's no way scum would make that bad of a case", which I entirely disagree with.
If there is this framer than can frame himself to show up as visiting a specific target (ie, JH visiting austin), what stops Hiro or me, or you from being that framer? Lets play devil's advocate and say Hiro says that he is going to use his role on ghost. So you track Hiro, and he does in fact visit ghost. Now, why can't he be the framer? Why does it have to be Jingle?
EPT
