EPTTL Mafia LVII
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Kreb
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Kreb
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On September 09 2012 02:30 austinmcc wrote: Welcome to hours before lynch in a cycle where we keep swapping targets and we've got a claim that might be fake and maybe another lynch target and a lot of other stuff going on! Thanks for replacing, and sorry you hopped into this situation. I just replaced into a similar spot and it took me a couple days to get my bearings. Thanks. Voting in 2h 45min right? I guess its a likely bandwagon for me then. I'll try to read through the last day until then. | ||
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On September 09 2012 07:13 Hapahauli wrote: Welp. Gotta grab a drink or something. My apologies to BKE. I have no idea what happened with the NK's night one. They put a single stack on BC and presumably suicide-bombed DrH. Might have been a medic-save somewhere N1 - that's the only explanation I have. Going to take a dive through some filters tonight. Ok, gonna have to start asking a bit of question here to get into things. First, who is DrH? Cant find any name or role fitting that. | ||
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On September 09 2012 15:10 Bill Murray wrote: Notice the capitalization of scum, and him seeming to have too much knowledge. Couple that with IIoA and I'm a little suspicious. I didnt get this at least. From that post you make out that he seems to know too much. How? To me he is just speculating, which might not be worthy of a post to begin with but doesnt seem scummy to me. | ||
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On September 09 2012 18:40 Shady Sands wrote: Kreb, BM is just trolling. Can you look at the DP/me/Hapa exchange in the past few pages and give us your thoughts? Well, I didnt ask him about the "lulz gay" post (troll post). I asked him about him finding someone suspicious, which doesnt seem like trolling to me. Anyway. Hapa apparently was a pretty big part in the mislynch against BKE, and then afterwards comes out strong with vig call on ShiaoPi. My first feeling is it would be pretty ballsy for a mafia to that (which is obviously a good reason to do it as mafia yea yea I get that). But continuing down the discussion I do think he seems quite (emotianlly?) invested in his scumhunting and his frustration is relevant for someone who is feeling he is being questioned more than he might deserve. Apart from that, a lot of your argument seems to be based on meta. His read on Shiao, your read on him not questioning you for your supposed off-what-you-normally-do-meta. I cant really comment on much of that since I dont have any meta reads at all on any of you. In addition I do like and agree with your reasonign on Grush. Giving him "free pass" is a bad idea to me because of what the situation might turn into should we get closer to mylo/lylo with him still in it. If we're gonna have to do a 75/25 guess on him at some point anyway we might as well do it earlier since it gives us an extra cycle to discuss whatever target we might go on should we give Grush a pass. A lot of this is apparently about meta too, but people seem to agree his play is always trollish/anti-townish so I'll go with that for now. And since we're talking meta anyway, whats the reason for your meta to be so off from your normal? I did see you mentioning a being busy at work in an earlier post, but not sure if thats the whole reason.. | ||
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On September 09 2012 19:26 Shady Sands wrote: Emotional involvement is a null tell. Scum get angry just as much as town (thank you Blazinghand). My read on Hapa basically boils down to two things: 1) Hapa is playing off his meta while ignoring my shift on meta. 2) Hapa is being very selective/arbitrary in his scumhunting, and so far has led us to mislynch someone. Note that neither part of #2 is scummy on its own, but when taken together, are a clear scumtell. As for my own quietness, I honestly was busy. Will still be busy tomorrow and the next few days. Of course scum get angry too, but it's most certainly a different type of anger in that case. Obviously hard to distinguish from a piece of text, but one can at least try and then match it together with other possible reads. And isnt your 1) and 2) the same? You consider his scumhunting selective (2) because him ignoring your meta (1)? Thats one read, not two. | ||
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On September 10 2012 04:21 austinmcc wrote: strongandbig asked for my thoughts on Forumite/your case. I've got him down as one of my stronger town reads. I think that was a good request for to make, and I've obliged. Is that the only thing you're basing a town read on? There has been at least few other cases of "Can I please get some opinions on this case here?". | ||
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On September 10 2012 04:36 austinmcc wrote: I'll admit that I like the opinion request when made in this way, not "Can I get another opinion?" which just sits empty and people might or might not jump on, but rather "X will you comment on Y's case, Y on X's case?" Clear request. Ought to be answered. Gives information on X and Y, as well as on the strengths/weaknesses of their cases. A lot of the read comes from minor stuff though, posts that I felt came from a townie: + Show Spoiler + On September 05 2012 00:29 strongandbig wrote: lol. If matt was going to defend himself he would have said something by now other than "hey guys maybe I'm a VT trying to draw scum shots lol". I've played a bunch of games with Mattchew recently and based on those, I think this is him as scum. For example, if I were going to fakeclaim miller as scum, I would do it very differently. However, you have to remember a couple things about Mattchew: - he's lazy as fuck as scum, except in themed games - he's pretty aggressive as town a lot of the time. The example I was thinking about was from him in TL Mafia LV, where he and I were both town. He lied about taking a shot, and then when I suggested that it made no sense for him to take a scum shot and he might have been vigged, he attacked me like a moron for the rest of the game. Unlike that, in this game his lie doesn't have any follow-up. If it was a planned-out pro-town lie, which I imagine is what he'll pretend it is, he would have been all over the first few people to attack him. Instead he just disappeared. It seems much more likely that what he did was the same thing I did in deathnote - claimed miller without first asking the hosts whether millers are self-aware, and got caught for it. The difference is, I did it in a game with a closed setup. ##vote: mattchew Gives a solid response here. There were some other "Mattchew scum cuz he's not defending himself" posts, but snb gaev a more detailed breakdown that I liked, that felt townie to me. On September 07 2012 19:18 strongandbig wrote: So why should I in particular be scared of you in particular? Is it because I should be quivering in fear of your particularly stellar scumplay? Cause something about the ridiculous way you died last game makes you seem a lot less scary, as irrational as that is. Now, I'm not sure how you think I'm buddying you. Unless you mean the "we're the only ones in the thread" thing - I see game-related buddying like 'ooh your reads are right on yeah way to lead the town' as being a lot scummier than 'hey man sup in the thread at this european hour or whatever', but whatever. I was actually just going to ignore this whole thing because there's really not much for me to say about it ("you're buddying me! No I'm not! Yes you are!" doesn't really help anything), but it made me think a bit about you this game vs last game, and I wanted to ask something. This is from last game - this game, instead it's What changed? And don't say your alignment, from how highly you talk of your own scum play I know you wouldn't be doing something as simple as coming down on different sides of a policy question as scum vs town. Now in terms of your process of elimination thing - the obvious biggest problem with that is that it assumes you're town. You've done this before, like when we were playing in mtg mafia. You even actually came right out when the last vet was dead other than you and said "but why would I say that as scum, it's setting myself up to be lynched later." That argument worked that time, but it also taught me to watch you when you start talking about vet balance. That said, I think forumite is looking scummier than you are atm. I still really don't like his "don't use meta on vets" comment, and I don't think that's been addressed since I brought it up last time Yeah I think the same person is looking bad as you do even though you just accused me of buddying you, deal with it. Stayed away from the buddying stuff, noticed a contradiction in Toad's policy posting. On September 08 2012 08:20 strongandbig wrote: Not letting someone get away with "Grush anti-town" or "Grush scum." I think this is major town points, and something I should have been doing harder. I don't like a thread filling up with people parroting a half-read when they don't seem to have taken the time to really substantiate their own thoughts with clear references to what the guy's been doing. lol i was worried toaaaaad why do you say grush is mafia? ps this is a serious question. grush is like by far the easiest rando free scumread to throw around. On September 09 2012 02:25 strongandbig wrote: I don't think grush is scum. As far as I can tell the case on him from toad started off as "grush is trying harder to look/be townie than he usually does, therefore he must be scum." The alternative explanation is that maybe he's just trying harder to look/be townie? I played/obsed the recent PTP game, where grush survived until almost the end - that game, trolly as it was, was the towniest grush has ever been. I'm still not entirely sold on BKE, but I feel much better about him than about Grush. The claim, I don't know about. It's a very easy claim for mafia to make, and we can't prove it false or true, especially since he'll be able to claim roleblocked. There's the fact that if he checked the person who was suicide bombed he should be dead, but I give zero weight to the argument that's been made by some people that his claim is too weird to be made by mafia. If the claim is fake, it's possible that he was the one who delivered the KP on BC - or one of the two if he was double stacked - and the claim is designed to be safe against trackers and real watchers. Anyway, I don't think we should ignore the case on him just because he claimed a PR. I agree with whoever it was up above who said that if we do that, then scum can just always claim PRs and get free extra life by claiming to be roleblocked. So I'm back to the original core of the case against him - his scummy shift in position on Mattchew before and after Palmar's post in the thread. Sure it's not 100% a sure thing, but I like that case better than the case on Grush, and so ##vote: broodkingexe pre-edit Reading over Austin's post right above mine it looks like some decent arguments on z-boson as well - big lists, not following up on his own stuff, inconsistency, etc. Also someone to consider. Again, finds Grush townie. Which I like. Notices the weakness in any kind of case on Grush. Is wishy-washy on BKE, bad, but goes through some reasoning as to why, chooses a decent line of reasoning to vote on - what's the case before the claim. Not my favorite, but all right. Agreed on the "feeling" townish. But I cant help noticing S&B seemed to be opposed to Toads claim of him buddying Toad, and then follows it up by "voting Toad for mayor". Though maybe thats all small talk. | ||
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Kreb
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I was just done reading strongandbigs filter, and I did notice a lack of cases on anyone throughout the thread. So I do agree on that point, but mostly was gonna keep it in mind until later while I just commented on the buddying thing. But I dont quite see the problem with his reasoning on why to vote on BKE over Grush. He had two main options, liked one more than the other and there are plenty of reason not to start a completely new case from scratch even had he had one. Why doesnt it make sense? | ||
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Also, it is fair to assume mafia doesnt have a vig at this point? On another topic, Murray seems town with his vigi read and the way he handled it. At least for now its believable. Forumite still really need to answer to the accusations of Toad from a while back though, which I assume he is going to. But even though people seem to be backing off the Forumite wagon I dont want that case Toad posted to go unanswered. | ||
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On September 10 2012 12:19 Bill Murray wrote: Ill answer that. I'd rather lynch imallinson today, contrary to what most of you believe. I'm leaving Toad/Forumite for now. If they're town, it will help the town. Actually, thinking some more about it, I retract my town-read since 10min ago on BM, at least until I get some more answers. @Murray Why would you leave Forumite considering what you (and Toad) had posted on him before? A very large part of the case against him was "town-forumite is helpful, Forumite this game isnt helpful, as such he is scum". However, now you're saying If they're town, it will help the town Why would you come to the conclusion it will help town considering hes been unhelpful so far? Also, supposing you are town, how could nailing another mafia be a bad idea? Lets look at some options: You town, Forumite anything. You should be happy to push the case on Forumite considering he's unhelpful alive. You mafia, Forumite town. If Forumites case gets pushed by someone else, you get towncred for backing off. Forumites gets left alone, you can always come back to the case later. You mafia, Forumite mafia. You try to save your mafia friend from a lynch with the reason that "he will be helpful if hes town", but should the case go to a lynch anyway, you can fall back on your read of him being scummy and can easily bus him while leaving the perception that you successfully scumhunted him. | ||
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On September 11 2012 07:34 Mementoss wrote: I read all of day 3 and no one gave a good reason why they are voting forumite. Can someone explain? I will get to reading through the game eventually but, the way this day is going its just killing discussion. Read Toads filter. Theres a pretty big post about it there. | ||
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As for my own reads, (which arent really reads I guess) Im mostly annoyed with the one-line posters which you cant really get an answer out of (Murray, Grush). Murray still hasnt answered the question Z-Boson asked, and I cant say Im satisfied with his reply to me either. Apparently that fits with their meta though, which together with all the vet talk and people making posts for the sake of provoking reactions seemingly all over the place makes me very hesitant to try to push anything myself. I cant say Im familiar with what tactic generally is considered best to deal with such players either. But there has been a few cases on BM and lots of people seem suspicious of Z-Boson, so whats your take on those two Forumite? Also I do hope that we could get around to pressuring lurkers/non-contributors more too. I dont feel Im really saying much useful stuff at all and Im not committing to anything, so had I been mafia I bet I wouldve felt pretty good with all the discussions about vets/boson going on while I bandwagon with 10+ other people. And there plenty of others I dont really get a feeling for at all because they dont really contribute much at all either. Granted, Forumite kind of fits the category of non-contributors though even though he might not be lurking, so that is another reason why Im fine with that vote too. I'll ask Toad since for now he seems to be the head scumhunting dude: Whats your take on everyone not contributing? Just leave them for later? You listed 4 fairly active players as non-town (S&B, Boson, BM, Foru), supposing all of these are non-town there likely gonna be very few mafia left after that, isnt it a pretty good reason to believe theres several mafia hiding among the silent majority? | ||
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Heh, truth be told Im feeling pretty useless atm. Its all meta-reads going on over my head and seemingly all active posters going to town becaues they played 50 (?) games vs each other. Hopefully we get down to the point where I can try and provide reads from within the thread and feel relevant. | ||
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My vote will be on BillMurray for now. Few reasons: - This post made by Hapa before he died. It did kinda get left alone given that Toads case on Forumite was posted later same page (page 77). + Show Spoiler + On September 10 2012 01:26 Hapahauli wrote: First off, I don't buy ShiaoPi's excuse. If Shiao is moving into university as he is suggesting, I find it hard to believe he'd sign up for a Mafia game if he knew his schedule. He was also plenty active to respond to Maverick's suspicion against him - and much more frequently than the "10 minute loading time" per page he was suggesting about his internet earlier. Finally, Shiao's only standing read is an OMGUS against Maverick. Strongly suggest shooting him tonight. Also, I won't be as active for the next few hours, so I wanted to comment on... Bill Murray This is mostly based on his actions (inactions?) during the BKE lynch. Right around when I dropped the case on BKE, Bill Murray had a burst of 6 short posts, all compiled into one larger one for your convenience: I summarized the case for him and never heard back from him. The only post he made between there and after the lynch is this weak-sauce soft-push of BKE: This is the only post he makes during the BKE push. Note that he doesn’t take a stance and simply disagrees with BKE’s defense. Then, after the BKE lynch... All of a sudden, he acts as if he was against BKE the whole time. Now I’m not sure if BillMurray is capable of doing stuff like this as town (his normal posting is scummy after all), but this specific thing seems scummy as hell to me. - His unwillingness to reply to this post, to Bosons post questions or to my question. There might be more occasions but probably not needed. - Me generally disliking that way of posting. If you purposedly post scummy (which people have claimed he always does) you just make it way too easy for yourself to hide. - Him not really committing to anything and switching opinions about people all the time. He said he'd back off Forumite, voted on him anyway. He had also gone back and forth about Maverick in his filter (without explaining the reasoning of course). - Toad seemingly agreeing BM needs to die. Toad is the one one who seem to have the meta knowledge about the others, and even though he's preferring Boson/Forumite, at least it doesnt mean the meta-argumentation clears Murray of anything. - Me having a bad feeling about the Forumite case and how its unfolding. Maverick explained it well + Show Spoiler + I don't like the way these cases are being played out. By there being more than just a dominant voice of "Everyone pile on this person"- having another option forces people to choose. If everyone just says "vote for this person" and no one is offering an alternative- scum is safe to just follow along since there wasn't a realistic option. That would be about it. Im very open to change my vote should he make an effort to defend himself though, but I've got a feeling that wont happen. Short opinions about Maverick and Boson and why I dont want to vote on them for now. Maverick: With the 10 or more people I have no feeling for at all, Maverick at least made two recent posts I very much agree with as town. Not enough to put him as a clear town, but enough to not make me wanna vote on him now. Boson: I think the best explanation of his play so far was him being 3rd party. So I'll stick to that opinion about him for now. ##Vote Bill Murray | ||
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On September 11 2012 22:25 imallinson wrote: What would be really helpful is if you actually made a case now. You said before that you thought day three was going to be a waste now. Surely you actually contributing something, besides saying a few people are scummy, would help to alleviate that. You posting vague reads on people doesn't help town lynch scum which is the reason everyone is voting for your lynch in the first place. If you're looking for something alternative to Forumite, theres been cases last 2 or 3 pages on both him, Z-Boson and Bill Murray. You should really try and read some of those rather than just leaning back and demanding him to do the work. If he had anything to say in addition to whats been said Im sure he'd mention it. If he doesnt have anything else to add, you should read through them and make your own opinion. | ||
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On September 11 2012 04:07 Rewok wrote: I've been wrong every time I voted on my own instinct and right the time I followed Toade so my vote is for Forumite. ##vote: Forumite Do you really not have any opinion on this yourself? If you dont have an opinion on the voting candidates, at least elaborate a bit on why you chose to follow Toad blindly and not any other random player. | ||
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On September 12 2012 04:04 Z-BosoN wrote: 1) This is good then? Not to flatter myself, but you propose to kill the most active poster atm. Liking the silence? This is another pretty good reason why I dont wanna vote Boson lol. He puts so many words in peoples mouthes. I have no idea how "At least the thread doesn´t grow that fast anymore" becomes "you propose to kill the most active poster atm". At thats hardly the first time, he hits on everything, left and right. I somehow have a hard time believing a mafia wouldnt be more...... tactical than that. | ||
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Or if Toad would be mafia I bet he's having a pretty good time now. Hes completely untouched and people are seemingly following what hes saying. Oh well, we can hope Forumite flips red, or at least 3rd party. | ||
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Also note: Im not suspicious of him (well, not more than the paranioa he pretty much asked for us to have regarding him :p), but since he was took the biggest part in the mislynch, it would be nice to know what he has to say about it and what he wants the next move to be. Theres already been two people throwing suspicions his way (Forumite, Grush). | ||
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Well, maybe that too! Obviously meant vig shot though. | ||
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On September 12 2012 22:43 imallinson wrote: Just because he led a mislynch doesn't make him less town. Town players are perfectly capable of being wrong. If we start suspecting everyone who pushes a mislynch we won't have anyone pushing lynches at all. Of course. But given the fact that he pretty much told us we should be paranoid as fuck about him (which I very much am) due to how supposedly good he was as mafia, I at least think we could demand a comment. As I said Im not suspicious, Im just paranoid. I trusted him for this lynch, that trust took a bit of a hit. Im wondering if I should renew the trust or not. | ||
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On September 12 2012 22:43 imallinson wrote: Just because he led a mislynch doesn't make him less town. Town players are perfectly capable of being wrong. If we start suspecting everyone who pushes a mislynch we won't have anyone pushing lynches at all. And Im not exactly calling for a lynch on him. However depending on what will be said from now until N3 ends, I might call for doctors/jailkeepers to re-evaluate their decision to protect Toad (obviously supposing they protected him in the first place, which I find very likely). A likely N2 scenario was mafia ignoring Toad and using their KPs on austin/hapa. The most likely either ignored him because A) They expected him to have protecting B) Hes mafia. In bose cases, keeping spamming protection on him is useless. At least the doctors/jailkeepers should exercise the possibility of their protection being better placed elsewhere. | ||
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On September 12 2012 22:56 DarthPunk wrote: Don't blindly sheep people. That answers your question right? Was that directed at me? If so, what question did you refer to? | ||
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On September 12 2012 23:04 Toadesstern wrote: hey am back, haven't read a thing yet and yeah I agree with what you "proposed" although it's for a different reason. Only got like half an hour time until I've got to leave again but I'll have time later on (like 4 hours prior to deadline) to post something. However reasoning for medics considering me: I don't think medics / Jailers should be protecting me as well. Right now there's pretty much no way mafia is going to shoot me because people are getting paranoid about me. Mafia are probably not going to shoot me because they want that paranoia. Yeah I could be saying that as mafia as well giving an explanation why I survived yet another night but it really works both ways. For all I care, if you're paranoid just track me if you think I'm mafia and frankly I'd actually say that already happened given my "most people are afraid about me" post either n1 or n2 anyways. Of course if you're a tracker it's up to you when you want to track me because if I was mafia I could just tell people to track me and be the guy who's not delivering a KP (assuming more than 2 mafia alive). So waiting until we've got rid of another mafia might be the way to go for trackers, but it's up to you, I've got nothing to hide :p Cool. On topic of tracking and watching, whats your opinion there? Personally I feel tracking and watching should be pretty well spent on lurkers/low profile players. If you were mafia theres no way you'd be carrying out the kills. A watcher believing you to be town might have a good reason to. Catching your killer would be great should you go down tonight. But other than that option, I'd say watch/track low profile players, the information could be very important later in the game when where down to 8-10 players. | ||
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On September 12 2012 23:15 Bill Murray wrote: Why? Because you're not low profile, and you don't want tracked? As per watching, no, that is terrible. if there are any watchers, DEFINITELY watch people who will be targetted. As per tracking, it can be beneficial depending on how the kill system works (whether or not they have to send a name in, or if it's random) because if they can protect good players, then I'd agree with you. Yea that was a stupid post by me, agreed. As for myself, Im probably not low profile enough to be a likely good tracking target I wouldnt say, no. If you disagree, feel free to track me. Only watch me Im you think I might get killed. Hmmm, I was sure mafia had to send in names on who killed who. Maybe I shouldnt have taken that for granted... | ||
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I'd still prefer not tracking him though, if hes mafia theres no way he'll do the night kills, and even if the claim is true that doesnt mean anything because he wont necessarily move the bomb. Watchers might wanna watch him though. | ||
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Mafia shot Z-Boson + someone else who got saved? Vig shog mkfuba? | ||
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On September 13 2012 07:19 imallinson wrote: Why do you think mkfuba was a vig shot? Because hes been lurking. Why would a mafia wanna shoot him? He's no threat to the mafia as of now. Plus if mafia bought Z-Bosons claim they'd wanna kill him to also kill Toad (supposing Toad is town). | ||
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On September 13 2012 07:19 Shady Sands wrote: Niiice play from ZB there. Well done I need to think through stuff here but this was my first reaction too. And I also do think this makes Toad look more town. | ||
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On September 13 2012 07:26 imallinson wrote: They did kill ZB and not toad. That makes it look like scum bought the claim and shot ZB aiming to get toad as well. Yes, thats what I thought too. But thats 1KP on Boson. Would the 2nd KP really be on mkfuba? I dont see that making sense.... | ||
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ShiaoPi - Not posting much and lurking. I did read through his filters though and I dont really see much pointing him towards mafia compared to other lurkers. So not really feeling him right now, although hes pretty much a null read. Gravan - This is the lurker I feel best about. Apparently there were some suspicions of him D1 when he soft-defended Matt calling him 3rd party. Now, I do often attribute saying stupid things to bad town play (a lot more than others here seem to do at least, so much bad play being called suspicious all over here...) but this one doesnt fit inexperienced bad townie play to me at all. Why would you stick your head out like that calling him 3rd party already on D1? Also, the feeling the need to contribute (which definitely can be bad townie play, new players might not wanna lurk and look scummy as town because they often feel lurking = scummy. Being quite new myself I definitely felt the need to contribute sometimes even though I really dont have much to say) probably more often takes shape in calling out cases on random people with very little backing it up. But I dont feel it comes in the shape of calling 3rd party on someone already looking highly suspicious. Examples: This can easily be just bad townie play wanting to contribute: + Show Spoiler + On September 06 2012 10:16 Gravan wrote: I think Bill Murray is scum. This is the first time he mentions me. At this point, he hasn't put forward any kind of read on me at all. In addition, many of his posts up until this point (not to mention quite a few afterward) are pointless one-liners, or just generally non-contributing. The next thing he does is tell austin to read my filter as if I was scum (again, not argument put forward on his part - he is talking as if me being scum is a forgone conclusion). + Show Spoiler + On September 06 2012 07:18 austinmcc wrote: Show nested quote + Looking through his profile, I see his only other game was LIII. So he's at least played, although not with me. But he knows that some of the people in this game played that game, he played with them, he knows they are competent individuals with functioning brains. It's the first time I've ever seen someone cling to something absolutely wrong in this manner. I have posted paranoid rants in two games, stuck by them for a while as possibilities, gotten upset if people wouldn't consider them as possibilities, but I didn't get like this. Right now (and if Matt flips scum I will be more certain of the read) I can't help but read the whole thing like this: Matt got caught Ottoxlol tried to save him, without realizing how bad an idea it was Ottoxlol shortly realized how bad an idea it was A decent scum player told him right after he got caught looking very odd that he couldn't back off his defense, because then he'd look even scummier So he went full bore nuts, and that's why he won't listen to anyone or anything It doesn't feel like he's just obtuse. At some point he'd get the message. It feels like he's clinging to this. Do me a favor, and go read Gravan's filter as if he were a scum idiot Then he goes on to say that hap is on his scumlist for "coaching" me. + Show Spoiler + On September 06 2012 07:23 Hapahauli wrote: Show nested quote + Null. Deal with it. His posts/logic right now could come from either mafia or bad-townie. I don't have enough information to make a decision since hasn't posted much. Fortunately we have 48 hours to make a read on him. yeah youre on my scum list so is gravan you openly coached him Afterwards, he includes doyouhas in this list. + Show Spoiler + filter On September 06 2012 07:27 imallinson wrote: Show nested quote + I'd say Gravan looks real scummy right now. He attempted the same thing as Ottox, defending Matt by saying he was probably an assassin, but much more quietly and backed away as soon as he realised it was a bad idea. If anything that looks more scummy than Ottox at the moment. THANK YOU. Go read Gravan's filter, and tell me if you don't find hapa coaching him? 2nd person I've caught him coaching that looks like scum with him (Doyouhas is the other) His next two posts that mention me go on to mention (offhandedly) the apparently obvious need to have me shot by a vig. Further, if you read his filter he is very non-comittal on the otto-defending-matt-and-generally-acting-scummy issue. His posts are passively worded and just softly agree with the flow of the thread at the time. However this to me does like bad and scummy: + Show Spoiler + On September 05 2012 09:38 Gravan wrote: First, the straightforward part. It seems to me that Matt is most likely an assassin, or a very careless player. As many have said before me, there is no case for him to do what he did from a town perspective. To me, it seems that if he were mafia or town, we would likely have seen at least some kind of attempt at an explanation - either to strengthen his fellow mafia by giving them 'towncred' as they jump on his bandwagon or to try to convince us we are making a mistake as a town blue. As an assassin, he could just be seeing his end and giving up - this is of course moot if he decides to put in his piece later. Since he is apparently not a random newbie (who is a random newb, anyway  ?), and clearly likes to be an active player, it shouts assasinto me. Since it is day 1 and we only have so much information, we essentially have to lynch him anyway (even if we were nearly certain he is an assassin. At this time, I'll be throwing my vote his way. The post where I make my comments on the information currently present (as in, not to do with the matt bandwagon) is coming up later. I just wanted to put down somehing somewhat solid so thanI can start to develop a post hostory, watery as it might be. And the rest of his posts from there on does nothing to change this. If anything it does the opposite. - Bill Murray. Havent forgot about him, still would like him lynched. In addition to my previous reason to vote on him (read my filter) I would like to add that it seems like hes trying to taunt us with his constant "you should have listened to me" and "I knew about them flipping green all the time". Trying to analyze a troll might be futile, but I see that more fitting a scummy troll than just a regular troll. Its like hes having fun and wants to push it as far as he can get for shits n' giggles. - Strongandbig. Feeling his has gone a bit lately, and thats the problem. I pointed out in a previous post recently after I had joined about his non-committing posting. Theres a descent amount of post but very little scumhunting and committing to cases. And since then he hasnt really done anything except joining the wagon on Forumite and his posting quantity has gone down a bit. This kind of play fits very well with a mafia who wants to blend in and kinda knows how to do it without looking stupid (as opposed to Gravan) but still doesnt really add anything to the discussion of finding scum. If theres anyone I would like to see some extra discussion on when Im back, its S&B. Some people has also mentioned Shady and Mav. I've already covered Mav very fast in a previous post that I have very little on him but I do think he posted townish a while back so still likely not gonna vote him. For now, I'll also say the same about Shady. Grush - Id love to see some more pressure on him due to his stupid playstyle, but for now I dont see that happening and I really dont have much reason to believe him to be scummy over anyone else. Plus in the stupid playstyle category BM wins the scummy-looking award anyway. And Rewok, you seriously need to start posting anything too and starting to reply to stuff people say to you if you want to avoid later lynching. You're absolutely doing shit atm, but you're saved by the fact that theres enough cases on others. TLDR Im quite pro-lyncing Gravan and BM. And I would like to see some more discussion regarding S&B. If I am to vote anything else than that it will most likely be because of new info while Im gone. Wee, Im learning to use red colours too to add to my arguments too! They totally look stronger than without them! | ||
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On September 13 2012 16:55 DarthPunk wrote: @ Kreb. How do you feel about Shady and Allison? Gonna be pretty short: Shady - His discussion with Hapa way back seemed genuine (Hapa seemed to agree with Shady looking townish because of it). Since then, nothing I would consider scummy. His Forumite-vote didnt look all too convincing, but theres bound to be a bunch of townies joining that wagon too. Allison - Before looking through the filter, just nothing really, null read. After a very quick look through the filter: I do kinda like how hes actively trying to discuss he way through what happened during night. Though maybe thats because I do too and Im just applying my own town-motives on him. | ||
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On September 13 2012 17:52 Bill Murray wrote: Gravan is town On September 13 2012 16:50 Kreb wrote: I would like to add that it seems like hes trying to taunt us Yeah.... | ||
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Because - I already mentioned him in my previous post - His defense was, imo, lacking - The main voting targets are Mav and SS, which I already explained I dont wanna vote on. I'll also add to Mav that his defense was much better than Gravans (mainly this post) + Show Spoiler + On September 14 2012 09:00 Maverick32x wrote: Read through the case on me- There is a LOT of tunneling going on.... Also why are people STILL bringing up Matt?? My 'soft defense' occurred prior to any confirmation that he was lying... once that was confirmed.. I switched. Simple enough. As for my "blaming the lurkers is an easy strategy"- There is something unique about those top 3 that I find is different than just 'lurking'.... there is something about the frequency of posts and the disappearance of them.... I know thats not the concrete answer you guys want, so I'll try to get some 'science' to back that feeling up. Voting me is a mistake. I am a plain boring vanilla town. I just really can't understand how ShiaoPi is not scum to more people? Okay, his 'timezone' presents as an issue to discussion.... and I'll even move past the lurking to be more specific in his posts. Lets bring it ALL the way back... He is backing up Matt's encouragement for others to claim. How is this LESS scummy than me soft defending someone who I didn't know I was lying? Right, Rewok's decision to do this sucks. Doesn't seem like Rewok and him are connected based off that post. I highlight this post mainly due to the relationship that is seen here. Both of these posts were made prior to Ottox's (town) death. ALSO, His statement of Ottox (town), Goodkarama(scum) and Milton (personally I think town) are leaning scum... but he 'excuses' Ottox.... LIKELY because he knows that Ottox is on the chopping block. Also, as pointed out previously, it is typical for scum to post a list, and sprinkle in scum buddies. Comments made about his lack of meta- these are covered up by "Internet problems" However, observations made about his meta. Him and lvdr are likely not connected- again, just another relationship point. Also, Hapa becomes his new target at this point. Similar to Ottox, he starts to pick up speed on targeting him. -He goes into a string of 1 liners at this point- likely due to my confrontation with him.- But then Hapa makes a decent post attacking him. On September 09 2012 12:44 Hapahauli wrote: 1) ShiaoPi has a reasonably active town-meta. ShiaoPi has no scum meta. 2) ShiaoPi is hardcore lurking this game, "internet issues" cited, but were not mentioned pre-game (odd, considering severity). His activity is very different from his 6 town games. He certainly hasn't posted anything that makes me think he's town. Some other newer players have posts that show effort, but ShiaoPi has shown none. As far as I'm concerned, the above makes him scummy. If he'd like to defend himself and convince me otherwise, he should take the opportunity to do so. Should I hold your hand too, or will that suffice? I don't want to post the WHOLE quote from Shiao- you can look it up, but again with an excuse of internet problems and a post pretty much just defending himself from Hapa who attacks him pretty hard.... Similar with Ottox- ShiaoPi decides to absolve Hapa and declare him TOWN. oh ya... Hapa dies that night..... .... .... ..... Seems similar to the Ottox? Ottox attacks him.. Dies... Hapa attacks him... Dies... Something tells me this is more than just a bad feeling.... Get your votes off me you dummies. Vote Scum. Vote ShiaoPi. MAVERICK OUT! And this: + Show Spoiler + On September 14 2012 10:18 Maverick32x wrote: Doop-de-doop, I'll look at Grav. Before I dig into filters, my gut feeling of Grav is that he has been on the side lines throughout the game and that he's a new player. Passive. Very passive and apologetic. This sounds like subtle fear of being 'found out' (scummy) Wants to blend in. Still apologizing. Pretty bad first couple posts. This was my perspective as well when I played the Portal Mafia, which is making me wonder if a lot of this is kind of 'new town' sort of stuff? My perspective was "Kill everyone that is not town" I didn't care if you were 3rd party, 4th party or mafia.... if you weren't green... you needed to die. So his thought that- "Well, he's 3rd party, so we're good to lynch him" makes a lot of sense to me. He connects Ottox and Toad loosely... but I think he digs in a bit with his reads considering his post history. I ALMOST like this post. He target BM which is cool. Very straight forward, non-apologetic. The only problem is, its only because he's being called out and feels threatened. So again with the fear response. I like this post actually. It speaks to me well. I also am not up to speed on the "meta" of other players... This indicates to me that he really IS a new player.. trying to find his way and get the swing of things. He wants to put his thoughts out and get something going, but seems unclear as to how to do it. Okay, as I'm going through the filters from this point to the end of his page 1- he all of a sudden starts to pick up a LOT more momentum. He is being more assertive with his claims and is getting more involved. Here are some posts. Ok, this next post I think is REALLY important. This is something that I think he was TRYING to do early game. However, he kind of violates his own rule when he decided to turn on BM in an attempt to 'clear his name'. In fact- his quoted posts above clearly indicate that he felt he needed a counter argument... which was to point fingers to clear his name????? Other than that, he has started to contribute a lot more which I can relate to. I hate posting early in the game. It sucks. Its confusing. There are too many people talking. You have people like BM saying things like "This person is scum" and everyone just listens to them for seemingly NO reason... Now though- he is posting significantly differently than he was at the start.... Why would a scum INCREASE his posting.. when there are plenty of lurkers for him to hide amongst? He is putting himself out there in more assertive ways... This speaks more to Gravan's personality as a person.. probably awkward in groups- has to get to know people more before opening up...probably only has a few close friends.. etc etc... (Also yes, I am a therapist ha) tldr: Gravan appears to be a new player(town)- or a mafia pretending to be new.. and doing an absolutely awesome job at it. I'll add to SS too in my next post, but I got an additional town read on him too. Not 100% related to my vote so putting it in next post. - I also did, at least at first glance, Mavs case on ShiaoPi looked good, gonna read through it, but as Shiao is so far to catching up on votes im not gonna vote him anyway. - BM is still on my list of people to consider, but no votes on him = my vote goes to Gravan quite clearly. | ||
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About my case on you. I agree its not very strong. Actually I agree with you calling it a "case" as you nicely highlighted it with quotation marks. And the reason it is weak is because its impossible to create a strong case on someone playing the way you do taking your suppoed meta into account. Without meta, the case is like the strongest case ever because you've done like what, 20(?) things that each on their own could result in suspicions being targetted your way. However, you obviously have to take meta into account, and as all such normally suspicious activities suddenly can all be explained by "its his meta, he always does that regardless of alignment". So yea, the "case" is weak, and its also impossible to be strong. Its like trying to create a "strong" case against someone not posting or someone FoSing everyone. Try to do that. About policy lynches Is my "case" of you a policy case? Definitely partly. And is that a problem? Policy lynches are absolutely fucking needed in this game. The second you remove the possibility of policy lynching someone, thats the second someone not replying or someone FoSing everyone becomes unbeatable as mafia, because you cant create strong "real" cases against them. As such, you NEED to pull policy cases now and then, and policy cases should always be considered. It would be way to easy to play as mafia otherwise. Depending on the situation, I wouldnt have minded starting a policy case on Grush either. Especially not early in the game. later its more debatable. But for now thats probably neither a good idea nor likely to go through. However my "case" on you isnt only a policy case. You on the other hand has given additional reasons to vote for you, which I why I was more "pushy" in your case. Dont be surprised to see me pushing policy lynches in other games should I join more, especially if the people in question give me additional reasons to. Off topic: + Show Spoiler + I could post a long-ass reason why I still would like to policy lynch in general (not related to this game) and what I hope to accomplish with it, but I'd consider that pretty unnecessary and off topic (since its not related to the game, duh). If you want, I can share on PM or in the thread after the game is done though, just ask for it. You also (conviniently?) forgot about this and the point there directed to you: + Show Spoiler + On September 11 2012 16:44 Kreb wrote: Ok, decided to not follow the wagon after all (damn im such a rebel). My vote will be on BillMurray for now. Few reasons: - This post made by Hapa before he died. It did kinda get left alone given that Toads case on Forumite was posted later same page (page 77). + Show Spoiler + On September 10 2012 01:26 Hapahauli wrote: First off, I don't buy ShiaoPi's excuse. If Shiao is moving into university as he is suggesting, I find it hard to believe he'd sign up for a Mafia game if he knew his schedule. He was also plenty active to respond to Maverick's suspicion against him - and much more frequently than the "10 minute loading time" per page he was suggesting about his internet earlier. Finally, Shiao's only standing read is an OMGUS against Maverick. Strongly suggest shooting him tonight. Also, I won't be as active for the next few hours, so I wanted to comment on... Bill Murray This is mostly based on his actions (inactions?) during the BKE lynch. Right around when I dropped the case on BKE, Bill Murray had a burst of 6 short posts, all compiled into one larger one for your convenience: I summarized the case for him and never heard back from him. The only post he made between there and after the lynch is this weak-sauce soft-push of BKE: This is the only post he makes during the BKE push. Note that he doesn’t take a stance and simply disagrees with BKE’s defense. Then, after the BKE lynch... All of a sudden, he acts as if he was against BKE the whole time. Now I’m not sure if BillMurray is capable of doing stuff like this as town (his normal posting is scummy after all), but this specific thing seems scummy as hell to me. - His unwillingness to reply to this post, to Bosons post questions or to my question. There might be more occasions but probably not needed. - Me generally disliking that way of posting. If you purposedly post scummy (which people have claimed he always does) you just make it way too easy for yourself to hide. - Him not really committing to anything and switching opinions about people all the time. He said he'd back off Forumite, voted on him anyway. He had also gone back and forth about Maverick in his filter (without explaining the reasoning of course). - Toad seemingly agreeing BM needs to die. Toad is the one one who seem to have the meta knowledge about the others, and even though he's preferring Boson/Forumite, at least it doesnt mean the meta-argumentation clears Murray of anything. - Me having a bad feeling about the Forumite case and how its unfolding. Maverick explained it well + Show Spoiler + I don't like the way these cases are being played out. By there being more than just a dominant voice of "Everyone pile on this person"- having another option forces people to choose. If everyone just says "vote for this person" and no one is offering an alternative- scum is safe to just follow along since there wasn't a realistic option. That would be about it. Im very open to change my vote should he make an effort to defend himself though, but I've got a feeling that wont happen. Short opinions about Maverick and Boson and why I dont want to vote on them for now. Maverick: With the 10 or more people I have no feeling for at all, Maverick at least made two recent posts I very much agree with as town. Not enough to put him as a clear town, but enough to not make me wanna vote on him now. Boson: I think the best explanation of his play so far was him being 3rd party. So I'll stick to that opinion about him for now. ##Vote Bill Murray So no, my "case" isnt only a policy case. Ok, now time for BMs case ("case"?) on me. I totally wish I could reply with something along the lines of "i really dont think BMs deserves a reply considering his play before". Too bad that would like unnecessaily scummy.  -You accuse me of flip flopping you. Actually its true, I did. But what I also did was explain my reasoning behind my flip flopping. How many flip flops have you done and how many out of those have you explained? - You accuse me of wanting to policy lynch you. Already covered that. But as to your accusation, yea I do want to lynch you due to policy (and other things). - You accuse me of not focusing one target "as a town would". True, I didnt. But please explain why a town would do that and while you're at it you might explain how it relates to the amount of targets you've focused over the thread :p About the recent SS/BM "bluefishing" exchange (Oh man, BM is gonna love calling us scumbuddies for this): I dont really see the problem with Shadys "bluefishing". The thing is he is already pushing for a case on Grav. Ok, put yourself in mafia-SS's boots. You're pushing for a mislynch on Gravan for whatever reason (because you think hes blue?). In from nowhere comes BM saying Gravan is Blue, and not green which is the other option for mafia-SS. Would it under any circumstances make sense for mafia-SS to ask for a confirmation about where the blue read come from? Except for maaaaaaaaybe out of curiosity that you might have hit jackpot by leading a mislynch wagon against a blue, nothing. Under any normal circumstances, mafia-SS would smile for himself, hope BM is right and stfu. I do agree with BM had SS been pushing for anyone else but Grav. Then it might very well have been bluefishing. But as he was pushing Grav, I dont. On the other hand, town-SS being suspicious of BM has a reason to demand an explanation when BM comes in and opposes town-SS's main tunneltarget. If anything, that exchange put SS more towards the towny side for me. I really dont see mafia-SS acting like that at all. That is also the townread i referred to and why Im not voting him. | ||
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On September 15 2012 02:31 Mementoss wrote: How was Mav's defense good? He basically said why are people bringing up my scummy post from day 1. If you say something SO scummy on day 1, it doesn't magically get unscummy by day 4. He's trying to discredit things he did in the past as non relevant. Also, the way that slo0sh immediately mentioned how Mav's statement on Grav made Mav look town is really discomforting. It looks like slo0sh told him to write that about Grav looking townie, and then for him to tell the rest of the town that it makes Mav look town. Hm. I still like the Maverick lynch personally. I don't think the BM stuff on shady really shows anything. I do agree with what sloosh said about it being a bit towny. I also do think his case on ShiaoPi had some merit. Other than that, not much really. But I said it was "much better than Gravans". Which these two point alone made it imo. | ||
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You are very late though.... | ||
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##Unvote: Shady Sands ##Vote: StrongandBig | ||
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That unvote was on Gravan. Ctr-c Ctr-v fail....also clarifying in voting thread. | ||
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Maverick32x (3) : strongandbig, Hopeless1der, grush57 Shady Sands (2) : Gravan, Bill Murray S&B(4): Sloosh, Kreb, MMToss, Mav | ||
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Maverick32x (3) : strongandbig, Hopeless1der, grush57 Shady Sands (2) : Gravan, Bill Murray S&B(5): Sloosh, Kreb, MMToss, Mav, imallinson If im correct | ||
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Gravan (5) : Shady Sands, ShiaoPi, Toadesstern, Darth Punk, Rewok Maverick32x (2) : strongandbig, grush57 Shady Sands (2) : Gravan, Bill Murray S&B(6): Sloosh, Kreb, MMToss, Mav, imallinson, Hopeless1der ? | ||
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Though, If this is a sloosh bus and mafia wins....  | ||
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As far as I know we don't actually know whether we've got Assassins in this game or not. If we have some it's highly likely that BM and S&B are those Assassins because hosts don't usually give 3rd party roles to new guys because they're hard to play. Is that really so? I thought it hosts were randoming most of the time... | ||
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People I'd consider high priority voting target atm: Toad, Rewok and maaaybe BM too. Not gonna spend another big post on BM, but I'll spend one on Toad and Rewok respectively. Toad - Woah, theres too many little small things here I'd like to mention, but without a doubt the biggest one is his interactions with S&B and his continous assassin painting of him. But, as Ive explained before Ive been very paranoid about Toad. That probably means Ive thought a lot more about "Why would Toad want to write this here if he was mafia?" than Ive done with any other player. I'll just list a bunch of things I thought were very conviniently said, or things which happened which would be very convinient for a possible mafia-Toad (incoming overusage of the word convenient): 1) This post: + Show Spoiler + On September 07 2012 06:59 Toadesstern wrote: Toads very important thoughts mostly about VETs and whatever else I consider important so far I'm doing this post because I'm probably going to die tonight. I consider myself a vet and most people probably consider me a vet as well but unlike BC I usually don't draw protection from medics for two reasons I don't need to go into detail right now, although the reasoning becomes apparant after reading the whole thing :p First important topic: VETs in this game
That's my take on who's a vet in this game. A lot of people think it's hard to analyse vets to a point that they almost got a mental blockade when it comes to vets, that's why I'm going to post some about those 4/5 although I don't have anything major yet, though I've got a conclusion I'm quite comfortable with. First things first, I did this post (+ Show Spoiler [click me!] + On September 06 2012 07:40 Toadesstern wrote: Bam. Watcher on people like BC and me please. Mafia will want to hit that. I am an incredible controversial guy and a shitton of people are scared like crazy about me because I'm apparently unreadable according to them. I'm a little like BC-junior, or maybe WBG-junior in that regard because people tell me I'm looking pro-town no matter of alignment every single game. So usually I'm getting the same old crap about me every game "Toad is looking townish, but that's a null-tell because Toad always looks that way". Take AC for example, Radfield actually told his scumbuddies to just attack me for looking good because I'm always looking good. WBG called the play VE and I did in LI "the best bus TL has ever seen", he said I'm unreadable in PTP, I totally destroyed town in magic and surely everyone remembers the "Annul game" (sup palmer :p). Except for PyourPoison I destroyed pretty much every town I played against as mafia and every single game I was called a townie by the vast majority of the game while telling people what to do. That's the reason I'm getting these bullshit arguments like "Toad is unreadable" / "Toad is looking town but that means nothing" all the time. No matter if I'm town or mafia and frankly I was expecting to hear something like that from a mafia-player because it's an incredible easy approach to attack someone because you can just say that EVERY single game. Sadly it never happened. However I still ended up getting some reactions although they're minor ones. tl;dr / Summary so far:
That leaves us with Foru and DrH. DrH still feels odd although I can't put my finger on it. Foru feels way to cautios when he's posting. I'm almost certain one of those 2 got to be mafia and considering that my guts are telling me that foru feels cautios I'd rather bet on him being mafia by some degree. The thing about this is that it's not a clear case. What I've got about those 3 (BM / foru / drH) so far is very minor and not worth making a case about so I'm not going to. However process of elimination is a nice approach for those kind of people and that being said I really doubt BM or BC are mafia. People who are not vets but should be a topic Ottox: No need to talk about him I guess DoYouHas: He's looking bad when posting but I actually like his answers strongandbig: That guy should be scared as shit about me but he isn't. Not at all. To be precise he's even pretty buddy-ish with me. I think he knows I'm not mafia. Do not like. BroodKingEXE: Weirdest vote from d1. Other than that he's fine but the vote really looks like "let's scatter at least SOMEWHAT, just pretend you forgot to unvote BKE" If Ottox somehow manages to survive the night you've got to lynch him no matter what. It's actually quite possible that we've got vigs thinking "well we probably got a bunch of vigs who want to shoot him so I don't need to as well. No need to quadrupel-stack him". I've been in that situation as well and ended up shooting my #2 reads instead of my #1 reads (AC comes to mind ) because I thought someone else would take care of the #1 read anyways because the guy was pretty much confirmed mafia.Ottox definitly is the best lynch if he survives. BKE & S+B are mentioned because I want people to check their filter as well. I'm not set on lynching them yet but they're the best candidates I've got besides the "usual" ones. I'd rather not have people just forget about them. That being said I think it's quite likely I'm going to be dead in a couple of minutes so I'm posting this to give a couple of thoughts in case I'm not around any more. They're obviously all pretty vague because it's d1/n1 after all and thereforet it's just a summary. That means you've got to check filters yourself to understand what I'm talking about and wether or not you agree with me. Regretted not doing that in WoF when I was shot n1 as well ... Right now we're having quite a luxury problem though: We're having to many people doing cases about everyone and their dog. That's totally fine in itself but you guys need to make sure you got some focus tomorrow. Talking about a lot of people is fine but if everyone's like a little gonzaw we'll have 25 people screaming "NO MY CASE IS THE BEST" and mafia has an easy time to pick a fitting case out of the 15915815 existing ones and will push that one. So don't spam the thread too much. This post I just did is already a wall-of-text although I'm only scratching the surface of things when talking about stuff. So keep that in mind tomorrow. And in particular this part: That's the reason I'm getting these bullshit arguments like "Toad is unreadable" / "Toad is looking town but that means nothing" all the time. No matter if I'm town or mafia and frankly I was expecting to hear something like that from a mafia-player because it's an incredible easy approach to attack someone because you can just say that EVERY single game. Sadly it never happened. That, to me, looks like pre-defending against the normal "Toad is unreadable" posts. Convenient to do for a mafia. 2) However, following that thoght, I think his post had a bit of a backlash. Remember me posting this: + Show Spoiler + On September 12 2012 22:50 Kreb wrote: But given the fact that he pretty much told us we should be paranoid as fuck about him (which I very much am) due to how supposedly good he was as mafia, I at least think we could demand a comment. As I said Im not suspicious, Im just paranoid. I trusted him for this lynch, that trust took a bit of a hit. Im wondering if I should renew the trust or not. And I also think I remember someone else also expressing paranoia about Toad, dont quote me on that though, not gonna read through everything to find a sentence about it. I might be wrong. But anyway, after that we saw Toad saying stuff like this: + Show Spoiler + On September 14 2012 04:58 Toadesstern wrote: Also this is nothing special. I'm awesome at playing mafia yet I'm only an average town-player. Mafia left me alive in *whatever the name was* although I was a modconfirmed town mason in that game. But again, a lot of people are paranoid about me, even if I end up being innocent-child-like confirmed. Not saying it's that strong this game but you've got to be really paranoid to consider me a mafia after what happened yesterday. I usually get shot either n1 or survive until lylo. Pretty much nothing inbetween exists in the history of Toad-games so far. You should put your paranoia somewhere else. Maybe something good will come out of it if you target someone else. And this: On September 14 2012 05:59 Toadesstern wrote: sure, I want to know wether or not my doubt is justified. For that to happen I need him to stop acting all paranoid about me. Very convenient to try and get rid of the fact that people have expressed paranoia about him. 3) Him posting an extensive case on Forumite, but not really trying to push the wagon on it. He left that to other people (there was someone pointing this out, dont remember who, not gonna spend the time looking for that one phrase). Very convenient to plant the seed and let others do the hard work. 4) Him compltely going "sit back and watch" style for the last night kill. He was very lightly discussing who to vote. We saw posts like these: On September 13 2012 22:46 Toadesstern wrote: voting for Mementoss to get lynched seems like a good plan for today. Thoughts? On September 14 2012 00:48 Toadesstern wrote: Yeah I'd be willing to lynch anyone out of Gravan, Mementoss and Mav today (so far). But I'm willing to sheep someone else today, for the good of town! On September 15 2012 02:28 Toadesstern wrote: 30 more minutes until I've got to leave. Shady Sands or Gravan? Now these wouldnt have been all too strange if he hadnt been a lot more pushy in his previous cases. Now hes seemingly fine sitting back and enjoying the show. Very convenient. 5) Also not how he switches people very fast in those quotes (MMToss -> Grav/MMToss/Mav -> SS/Grav. And he doesnt seem to keen on explaining why he is switching around all those names. Its like he doesnt have a will at all and just wants to follow. And I do think we can be pretty sure Toad has a will. 6) Him coming into the thread with a "perfect" setup defense at 2.30 am when he (at least according to what he said) wasnt present at lynch time. Hmmm. 7) The claim itself, where he claims tracker (no other confirmed track so far, convenient) and how most of his reads are impossible/hard to confirm. 8) Bringing back the same quote from before: On September 14 2012 04:58 Toadesstern wrote: Also this is nothing special. I'm awesome at playing mafia yet I'm only an average town-player. Mafia left me alive in *whatever the name was* although I was a modconfirmed town mason in that game. But again, a lot of people are paranoid about me, even if I end up being innocent-child-like confirmed. Not saying it's that strong this game but you've got to be really paranoid to consider me a mafia after what happened yesterday. I usually get shot either n1 or survive until lylo. Pretty much nothing inbetween exists in the history of Toad-games so far. Now, he didnt say anything about his town-play in that big post he made early on where he explained his awesome mafia play. But he has certainly done a descent amount of talking about what vets are and that they are good at the game. Then hes suddenly claiming to be an average town player (when we should be asking ourselves why he isnt dead yet, especially since there was a quite unanimous view that he shouldnt get any protection last night). Very convenient to build yourself as an average player to stop such questions from popping up? Oh yes. 9) In light of his tracker claim, doesnt this come off as a bit odd? On September 13 2012 05:30 Toadesstern wrote: So I propose this: Trackers go and track Z-Boson. If he's a Mad Hatter as he says he is and he genuinely believes me to be mafia he already has the bomb placed on me (as he just claimed) and therefore doesn't need to visit someone as he doesn't need to change the bomb and can just leave it on me. If that guy visits someone we've got ourselves a mafia :p Why would you try to direct trackers somewhere if you were a tracker? And to remind you all: These are IN ADDITION to the constant assassin painting of S&B. Paranoia or not, with the S&B flip I do think this looks a bit too fishy to leave alone. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + Holy shiet this thread gets going quickly! Alright, time to say hi :-) My name's Rewok. I haven't played with any of you before, so I'm gonna take this first post to tell you about my strategy for this game. I'll also give my reads, etc. But that's gonna be further down. Basically, I see the game like this. The goal for mafia is to stay alive. The goal for Town is to get rid of people. Knowing this, Town tends to be more bloodthirsty from the front. While Mafia's best strategy is to target specific people. Town strategy tends to lean towards "getting blood" right away. Because each person gone could kill a mafia. Worst case scenario, you know one person isn't a mafia. And you can get a better read from the filters. Mafia tends to want specific people dead, right away. They have better information. So they tend to skew towards "let's kill THIS PERSON. Otherwise, let's pass on the ban this round." (A little about me: I like to be careful about my scumreads. I'll only give a scumread if I've got a VERY strong hunch. My goal isn't to lynch townies. It's to make sure we use each lynch to nail a mafia and get this game over with quickly. Also - with every townie left alive.) Now that I've revealed this, the meta is gonna change. However, using the current filters from before I posted this, here's what I got: page 9 stop being paranoid - - - - - - READS << ps. holy filters, batman!! >> - - - - - - And: + Show Spoiler + When I say Town Read or Mafia Read, it's gonna be a firm read as far as I can tell. I'm not looking to change or update my reads every 1/2 day. My goal is to make reads that stick, which simply requires more info than we're got so far. (Zero votes and lots of bickering.) He comes into his first mafia game all fine and dandy with perfectly reasonable posting for a newbie, right? But then he completely shifts into lurker mode without saying anything! Would a newbie with all good-hearted and genuine goals not say anything? I find that very unlikely. He is apparently a bit taken by surprise by the amount of posting going on and how much he is supposed to keep up with. Wouldnt a town-newbie really excuse himself? Say stuff like "Im sorry I cant keep up this is taking too much of my time" or "Im not really used to this so Im sorry Im not helping much" or maybe even go as far as to ask for a replacement? We've seen nothing of that, instead he just goes afk completely. This might also be due to a mafia leading the pack (Toad?) telling him to stop with his "Im an innocent townie"-talk to not get attention drawn to him. Maybe mafia prefers him being easily bussable. Last part might have been far fetched by yea, I dont see his play fitting an innocent newbie. | ||
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1&2: Had you been town, these are obviously nothing, and your reasoning is correct. But these two are kind of adding up to the whole picture to me. Alone, they are nothing. 3&4: Ok, my wording of you being "pushy" was probably bad wording on my part. And you focus heavily on me being contradictory (which, if you want to interpret the word pushy in the way you did, theres reason within your claim that I indeed was). But the fact still stands that the way you acted those two nights are very different. And the asking around what other people think (4) is to me very much not your style (see the sentences about will). That, you still havent attempted to explain. 5: Its still an awful lot of switching. And we have this: I very much think he's scum. I like my vote on Mementoss better for the moment though. If only for the reason that I no longer want to lynch Mementoss first. It explains that you are willing to switch off MMToss, but it doesnt explain why you are willing to. Also, I dont see why you'd consider voting on SS unless you at least have an equal scumread on SS as you did on Gravan. If you did have such a scum read, you have explained why (again, why is the key word) you were willing to vote swtich. If you did not have that scum read, you shouldnt have considered SS at all and stayed on Gravan. 6: It was my weakest point probably. And quite frankly your reply to it doesnt really relate to my point six (and you cant really defend yourself against it either, since it was mostly just me going "it seems pretty strange he got that post together at that time so fast"). About what you said in the defense though: Nothing of what you claim you did would be impossible to do as mafia in preparation for later defense. And your point about what happened N1 (which as I said have nothing to do with my point 6) I have a bit of a hard time to relate to since I wasnt there at the time. And about you not planting breadcrumbs as mafia, thats a null-read from my PoV. If someone I trust as town can confirm it, I'll take it into account. 7: Agreed its confirmation bias. Not one of my better points. Just another one of those "this does fit a bit too well" moments. Maybe I shouldnt have mentioned 6 and 7, but as 1&2 neither of them are strong at all on their own, but together they make something, so I added them. And quite frankly I dont think you can defend yourself against 6 or 7 so you probably shouldnt bother. Blame my paranoia would make more sense (since if I'm all wrong in all of this, I will be the first to admit that my paranoia totally got me on the wrong track). 8: You totally didnt reply to my point at all. My point was about you painting yourself as average town player at a time when we should be asked why you arent dead (being vet and all). The timing of that was VERY telling and nothing you wrote relates to that at all. As for the Z-Boson situation (why is this on my point 8 lol?), you yourself said you're awesome as mafia. Would you really say you, supposing you are mafia, are unable to make the read Boson was bluffing and then call for the kill on him to clear you? As someone who claimed to be awesome as mafia, dont you agree you should be able to make that call? I have that faith in someone making such a claim at least. 9: Cant really reply to that one. I think its strange you tell where trackers should go when you're the tracker. You say you did it to not look blue. Thats possible. Up to everyone to decide whether they believe you or not I guess. Personally im very sceptical. | ||
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I'm going to answer the ones we disagree about. There's really no point in talking about 1,2,6,7,9 right? Agreed. 3,4 ) Yeah it was different because I wasn't anywhere near as comfortable picking the right lynch as I was the day before that. With that, I think we are at the end and where its up to the rest whether they believe it or not. Personally I think its very strange that someone goes from seeing non-town all over the place (you had Boson, Forumite, BM, S&B all pinned down as non-town) into being very uncomfotable about any reads at all. That is a VERY big switch of certainty. And I find it much more likely to be motivated by a scum wanting Forumite gone, planting the seed, then watchign the seed grow nad blossom. And then next lynch following it up the next day by being very content with who was being talked about and not wanting to get his hands dirty but rather preferring sitting back and let the others do the mislynch-job. Thats my version. Believe mine or his. 5) Pretty much my last sentence I just wrote . I explained it a little but those things are awfully hard to explain. Well then at least you can agree this one doesnt make you look very good, right? SS was simply the only guy who had votes besides Gravan if you exclude MMToss and Mav. I also think I mentioned Shady quite some time over the last couple of days as possible mafia and never retracted that at all. Its not impossible I could have missed it. But as you claimed you had him on your target since previous, you should really show that. As it stands now, you still havent presented much of a reason as to why you considered SS as good of a target as you thought Gravan was. Also consider the follow-up question should you have such a reason: why werent SS on your 1st and (more importantly) 2nd list in that case if you had him on your mind all along? 8) You're kind of asking me "why did mafia not shoot you". How am I supposed to know that. I mentioned the Z-Boson situation because that's an easy explanation for one of the nights. The first night I obviously didn't get shot because they prioritised BC and BM24. Ever after that we had an awful lot of talk about a medic because everyone assumed there was one for sure, so as mentioned they probably tried to get safe kills rather than vet kills when they were already low on numbers after losing 2 mafias d1/n1. But again, I have no clue. How am I supposed to know why mafia did or did not shoot me. It's just a guess and I can't answer that question. Im not entirely sure what you're saying, but I cant find anything related to the fact that you painted yourself as average town at that time, so I'll leave it at that. | ||
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I totally didnt see that coming | ||
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Also theres no secret (for those who read the threat at least) that I've put SS on the more towny side before, and he has also expressed town read on me and he tried to get BM off my back when he posted his "case" on me. So should SS get lynched and flip red I should probably get tracked the coming night so you can confirm Im not mafia. But thats for later really. I'll make sure to post that again should we lynch SS and he flips red. For now though: ##vote: Shady Sands | ||
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Plus, its quite obvious whos gonna get lynched. Some talk about whats coming after doesnt hurt, but a lot still depends on the flip. | ||
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Also, didnt Rewok miss the vote? | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On September 15 2012 20:39 Kreb wrote: Rewok - He is up there together with Toad, but for a completely different reason. The reason he is up there is because I cant see how he hasnt purposedly gone completely lurk mode. This feels like something only a mafia would do (possibly because some other mafia (Toad?) told him do to so). Look a bit at his starting posts: + Show Spoiler + Holy shiet this thread gets going quickly! Alright, time to say hi :-) My name's Rewok. I haven't played with any of you before, so I'm gonna take this first post to tell you about my strategy for this game. I'll also give my reads, etc. But that's gonna be further down. Basically, I see the game like this. The goal for mafia is to stay alive. The goal for Town is to get rid of people. Knowing this, Town tends to be more bloodthirsty from the front. While Mafia's best strategy is to target specific people. Town strategy tends to lean towards "getting blood" right away. Because each person gone could kill a mafia. Worst case scenario, you know one person isn't a mafia. And you can get a better read from the filters. Mafia tends to want specific people dead, right away. They have better information. So they tend to skew towards "let's kill THIS PERSON. Otherwise, let's pass on the ban this round." (A little about me: I like to be careful about my scumreads. I'll only give a scumread if I've got a VERY strong hunch. My goal isn't to lynch townies. It's to make sure we use each lynch to nail a mafia and get this game over with quickly. Also - with every townie left alive.) Now that I've revealed this, the meta is gonna change. However, using the current filters from before I posted this, here's what I got: page 9 stop being paranoid - - - - - - READS << ps. holy filters, batman!! >> - - - - - - And: + Show Spoiler + When I say Town Read or Mafia Read, it's gonna be a firm read as far as I can tell. I'm not looking to change or update my reads every 1/2 day. My goal is to make reads that stick, which simply requires more info than we're got so far. (Zero votes and lots of bickering.) He comes into his first mafia game all fine and dandy with perfectly reasonable posting for a newbie, right? But then he completely shifts into lurker mode without saying anything! Would a newbie with all good-hearted and genuine goals not say anything? I find that very unlikely. He is apparently a bit taken by surprise by the amount of posting going on and how much he is supposed to keep up with. Wouldnt a town-newbie really excuse himself? Say stuff like "Im sorry I cant keep up this is taking too much of my time" or "Im not really used to this so Im sorry Im not helping much" or maybe even go as far as to ask for a replacement? We've seen nothing of that, instead he just goes afk completely. This might also be due to a mafia leading the pack (Toad?) telling him to stop with his "Im an innocent townie"-talk to not get attention drawn to him. Maybe mafia prefers him being easily bussable. Last part might have been far fetched by yea, I dont see his play fitting an innocent newbie. BUT, I might have something on Grush. | ||
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Night 5 post: Palmar Iceland. September 18 2012 07:30. Posts 5910 Grush post night 5: grush57 Korea (South). September 18 2012 07:43. Posts 1372 13minutes after Night 4: Quatol Burkina Faso. September 15 2012 07:16. Posts 55 Grush: grush57 Korea (South). September 15 2012 07:29. Posts 1372 13min after Night 3: marvellosity United Kingdom. September 12 2012 07:01. Posts 5085 Grush: grush57 Korea (South). September 12 2012 07:18. Posts 1372 17min after BUT Also: grush57 Korea (South). September 12 2012 06:40. Posts 1372 21min before Night 2: Nothing close Night 1: marvellosity United Kingdom. September 06 2012 07:34. Posts 5086 Grush: grush57 Korea (South). September 06 2012 06:48. Posts 1372 46min before, but only 12min before deadline grush57 Korea (South). September 06 2012 07:50. Posts 1372 16min after My point: Grush has clearly been around 4 out of 5 nights. He was also posting soon before deadline Night 1 and 3. WHY WASNT GRUSH POSTING PRE-NIGHT 4, WHILE WE WERE ALL SWITCHING TO S&B? Obviously, not proof. And hes gonna say he wasnt there, which we cant say anything about. But lacking something on his posting content this might be something to go on. Gonna take a closer look at DP/BM tomorrow too most likely. | ||
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On September 18 2012 08:37 Bill Murray wrote: KREB HOW MANY SCUM DO YOU THINK THERE ARE? 2. Most likely within the trio: You, Grush, DP. | ||
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On the BKE case: On September 08 2012 06:39 grush57 wrote: Not hard defending him, I'm just pointing out things in your case. He isn't 100% scum, but if it comes down to it I'll probably vote for him. On a post made by Z-Boson targetted at S&B: On September 10 2012 05:25 grush57 wrote: Oh Z-Boson, you are so confused. S&B was not contradicting himself at all in that post. On September 14 2012 04:27 grush57 wrote: Nice find there sloosh. ##Vote: Maverick32x Also you guys don't get how BM plays. These are the only times he attempted to defend someone. One flipped green, but he also expressed that he'd be willing to vote for him. One flipped red. The third is still in the game (and Im very suspicious of). | ||
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grush57 - Highly suspicious Bill Murray - Suspicious DarthPunk - Neutral, gonna take a long read through his filter tomorrow ShiaoP - No reason to not believe the claim, town. imallison - The only town I feel I kinda could be wrong about, but still putting him on town side for S&B vote and previous filter-reading. Hopeless1dr - Tipped the vote against S&B, should be town. | ||
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On September 18 2012 09:45 DarthPunk wrote: I am kind of glad Rewok got mod killed because he would have been a serious liability tomorrow. Kreb Could you please post a case on me if you keep lumping in with BM and Grush as scummy. From what I have gathered you are suspicious of me because I have not been under suspicion and because I felt townie. Read my filter. Read my interactions with the other players in the game etc. and post a case. It is far preferable than what you are currently doing. Especially at LYLO. That goes for all of you. If you think someone is scummy Make a case. Bring as much info out into the open as possible. So that we can inform ourselves and make the best decision. The last cycle was terrible. We miss lynched shady and have no info and no discussion from it. Im not suspicious. I just kind of acknowledged that you're the one I've put the least thinking into. And given that no one else seems to neither put you as town nor mafia, that seems to fit others too. Also I tried to make it clear in the last post where I stand in your case. For now its 02:50 and I dont feel Im in a state where I wanna dive more deeply into this game until I've slept. I know I'll have time tomorrow too. I promise to post what I feel about you before the night kill, be it more mafia-like or town-like. | ||
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What I see is a handful of sentences stating what the state of the thread is. I even go as far as to say that "Some talk about whats coming after doesnt hurt". Not gonna claim I encouraged discussion exactly either, because I wasnt. But please, do elaborate on how I "encouraged the non activity" and "made by best efforts" (I wonder what my worst efforts look like if thats my best....) to waste 48h. You're accusing me of shutting down a (highly contributory?) discussion which wasnt there. If you two guys had something to say, YOU should have said it. Im supposed to be responsible for you two not sharing possibly vital information by stating the situation? | ||
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Explain like Im 5 years old: Where do I do this? | ||
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I dont have anything I would call particularly scummy. The "problem" might be that he's largely been targetting BM (and a lttile bit onto Grush at the start) and since we havent seen BMs flip its hard to say what motives are behind it. But the cases he presents are at least well thought out and I agreed (and still agree) with a lot of the points. I find it unlikely they would be some kind of scum team trying to look like different alignment, the cases are a bit too extensive for that imo. That leaves the possibility of DP being scum and the others town, but thats waaaaaay less likely than the other way around with the way Grush and BM has behaved throughout the game. So here we go: Im calling Grush/BM scum team. Grush: Already posted about him two posts recently. The cases arent exactly waterproofs, but considering their his activity its pretty much impossible to create one. But with mostly solid town reads on the rest and medium scum reads on Grush, I see no other option. + Show Spoiler + On September 18 2012 09:26 Kreb wrote: Worth noting on Grush too: Hes called lots of people scummy, but the following three posts were the only three I could find where he was (very very soft) defending people. On the BKE case: On a post made by Z-Boson targetted at S&B: These are the only times he attempted to defend someone. One flipped green, but he also expressed that he'd be willing to vote for him. One flipped red. The third is still in the game (and Im very suspicious of). + Show Spoiler + On September 18 2012 08:09 Kreb wrote: I cant really say I have much due to what he has said. But I decided to take a different approach to this. And I might have found something. Lets look at Grushs posting habits around night posts: Night 5 post: Palmar Iceland. September 18 2012 07:30. Posts 5910 Grush post night 5: grush57 Korea (South). September 18 2012 07:43. Posts 1372 13minutes after Night 4: Quatol Burkina Faso. September 15 2012 07:16. Posts 55 Grush: grush57 Korea (South). September 15 2012 07:29. Posts 1372 13min after Night 3: marvellosity United Kingdom. September 12 2012 07:01. Posts 5085 Grush: grush57 Korea (South). September 12 2012 07:18. Posts 1372 17min after BUT Also: grush57 Korea (South). September 12 2012 06:40. Posts 1372 21min before Night 2: Nothing close Night 1: marvellosity United Kingdom. September 06 2012 07:34. Posts 5086 Grush: grush57 Korea (South). September 06 2012 06:48. Posts 1372 46min before, but only 12min before deadline grush57 Korea (South). September 06 2012 07:50. Posts 1372 16min after My point: Grush has clearly been around 4 out of 5 nights. He was also posting soon before deadline Night 1 and 3. WHY WASNT GRUSH POSTING PRE-NIGHT 4, WHILE WE WERE ALL SWITCHING TO S&B? Obviously, not proof. And hes gonna say he wasnt there, which we cant say anything about. But lacking something on his posting content this might be something to go on. Gonna take a closer look at DP/BM tomorrow too most likely. BM: Little needs to be said which I havent already said in various posts. But a quick recap. - He is not answering to questions - He is switching votes on and off people all the time - He doesnt explain why these vote switches occur - Hasnt built a single serious case and attempted to push it through - He has taken lots and lots of chances to taunt us by purposedly expressing opinions rivalling the general opinion, to further build him as "someone who just plays like that". - He is, obviously, well aware that hes doing all of this. But what motives would you have to not do this? The obvious answer is that by purposedly "overacting" his scummyness he can hide behind a notion that people will excuse him because "its his meta". Now, I would very much like DP/allison/hopeless/Shiao to comment on this? Do you agree? Is it weak, if so why? Do you have any other solid reasons to believe anyone else is scummy? Lets get this discussion going. | ||
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Yes, very much. I can agree with the last part now (still not agreeing with "encouraging non activity"). Its absolutely true I made no effort to stop it. I saw no point since we were quite unanimous and it would have felt very "forced" trying to find an alternative target when we were already happy with the current one. I thought thats how everyone was reasoning, considering no one made an effort to stop the (mis)lynch. Oh well. | ||
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On September 18 2012 17:39 DarthPunk wrote: We needed to push discussion during that lynch because of this exact scenario and to mitigate damage if we mislynched by having something to go off during LYLO. What you did was anti town. As far as I understand, the anti town part I did was not pushing this discussion you mention. If thats anti town to you, then I agree I acted anti town. However, then I also think everyone acted anti town, because no one did push it. | ||
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On September 24 2012 08:06 DarthPunk wrote: Meh. This victory feels hollow. Shiao pretty much figured us out and the only reason we won was because grush thought I was a newb. Anyway. It has been a LONG road. GG all. Yea dont say that. Mafia deserved it imo. Excluding ShiaoPi the last like 8 or 10 townies were pretty lost. I wouldve felt pretty hollow had we won because it wouldve felt like a cointoss at the end with grush/bm there. Also the biggest help came from an assassin lol (sloosh with the s&b case). | ||
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Or actually one winner. Sloosh! | ||
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