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On August 18 2012 15:40 thrawn2112 wrote:
You are right that there is no evidence in either direction to prove or disprove my vig claim. I only vig claimed to give an explanation as to how things could have worked out the way they did if I am town.
How about you claimed Vig because you are the Vig? Huge Slip.
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@Thrawn:
I'm looking forward to your response.
@Ochrow:
You seem to have disappeared... Please look at my case post on you and explain your actions. I can't think of any town-motivated reason for why you lied to us.
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On August 18 2012 15:52 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 15:40 thrawn2112 wrote:
You are right that there is no evidence in either direction to prove or disprove my vig claim. I only vig claimed to give an explanation as to how things could have worked out the way they did if I am town.
How about you claimed Vig because you are the Vig? Huge Slip.
What townie says 'if I was town'? HUGE SCUMSLIP not for the first time thrawn is talking through the perspective of scum acting as town.
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On August 18 2012 15:50 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 15:32 Golbat wrote:On August 18 2012 15:19 DarthPunk wrote:On August 18 2012 15:10 Golbat wrote:On August 18 2012 12:55 goodkarma wrote:
@YourHarry:
Any suggestions as to who this someone else is that we should lynch?
My first thoughts are either Orchrow or you.
You seem to be very interested in keeping thrawn alive as long as possible... I suggest you start making some meaningful suggestions as to who you feel looks scummier. And it would also be helpful if you commented on people's most recent cases against thrawn, Orchrow, and yourself instead of continuing to strive to keep Thrawn alive.
There are situations here where the vigi still shouldn't claim. Like what if there is an sk, but the vigi hasn't used his shot yet? A vigi counter claim here would be terrible, as he could wind up rb'ed by scum and NK'ed before he can do anything.
And if we wait, who's to say town doesn't get a successful medic save or rb? Or that scum or the sk (if he exists) doesn't just sit back and do nothing for one night? There's a few different ways that there could be an sk but fewer than two night kills.
Waiting achieves nothing. My read, and the read of several of us here, is that thrawn is scum. It's time for him to go. Read through the case points against him, and show us why you feel he might be town. It's more productive than your WIFOM defense of thrawn you're presenting now. I am in agreement that we should just lynch thrawn here. We seem to have caught a scum or even two, I think if thrawn flips scum then YH is almost certainly scum. You are lurking pretty hard buddy. I would also like to ask Ochrow, solarsail Z-Boson and Stutters to increase their contributions. I agree i'm lurking, but I feel that I have at least contributed well for my sparse filter. I made my case on thrawn, and cast my vote. When I see something worth discussing I mention it. I may not be living in the thread as hard as you, harry or thrawn, but at least I've contributed. What do you suggest I do to be less "lurky"? Make a shit case on someone in a misguided attempt to look active? Last game it got me lynched and cost town a vigi shot. I'll go over the thread again and see if anything catches my eye, but I don't really see a case I can make that hasn't already been made ATM. At the very least i'll prod some people in my next couple posts. Why so defensive? I understand that you got lynched for being over eager in XXII but your posting is markedly different than what I experienced there (although you were only alive for 24 hours so not much of a meta to read  ) my post was not a personal attack but rather a call to all lurkers to contribute something.
Apologies. I didn't mean to come off as defensive, just that I'm not intentionally lurking, just not posting uselessly. in my last game I died before I could make a big contribution, and I just want to help catch a scum before I die this game. Now is the time to step it up I guess.
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On August 18 2012 15:52 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 15:40 thrawn2112 wrote:
You are right that there is no evidence in either direction to prove or disprove my vig claim. I only vig claimed to give an explanation as to how things could have worked out the way they did if I am town.
How about you claimed Vig because you are the Vig? Huge Slip.
I take back all my points about waiting. I tried to give him the benefit of the doubt, but this is too much. I'm going to start looking more closely into filters to try and figure out a good target for after him
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On August 18 2012 15:59 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 15:52 DarthPunk wrote:On August 18 2012 15:40 thrawn2112 wrote:
You are right that there is no evidence in either direction to prove or disprove my vig claim. I only vig claimed to give an explanation as to how things could have worked out the way they did if I am town.
How about you claimed Vig because you are the Vig? Huge Slip. What townie says 'if I was town'? HUGE SCUMSLIP not for the first time thrawn is talking through the perspective of scum acting as town.
Isn't that the same way you caught Zork in XXII?
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EBWOP: Ochrow when he comes back is a good start, he better have some good reasoning for GK's case.
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Darthpunk, you have been twisting everything I've said to you into more reasons why I'm scum, and for that I'm going to be looking closely at your filter. It seems like you're less interested in seeing what I have to say and more interested in convincing town I'm scum regardless of my arguments. Goodkarma on the other hand even asked me to defend myself. I can sense sincerity in his motivations but you just seem focused on interpreting everything I say as evidence against me.
@goodkarma
dont worry it's coming
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On August 18 2012 16:00 Golbat wrote:Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 15:59 DarthPunk wrote:On August 18 2012 15:52 DarthPunk wrote:On August 18 2012 15:40 thrawn2112 wrote:
You are right that there is no evidence in either direction to prove or disprove my vig claim. I only vig claimed to give an explanation as to how things could have worked out the way they did if I am town.
How about you claimed Vig because you are the Vig? Huge Slip. What townie says 'if I was town'? HUGE SCUMSLIP not for the first time thrawn is talking through the perspective of scum acting as town. Isn't that the same way you caught Zork in XXII?
I was Godfather in that game. but yes it was similar.
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On August 18 2012 16:03 thrawn2112 wrote:
Darthpunk, you have been twisting everything I've said to you into more reasons why I'm scum, and for that I'm going to be looking closely at your filter. It seems like you're less interested in seeing what I have to say and more interested in convincing town I'm scum regardless of my arguments. Goodkarma on the other hand even asked me to defend myself. I can sense sincerity in his motivations but you just seem focused on interpreting everything I say as evidence against me.
@goodkarma
dont worry it's coming
LOL OMGUS vote number 2 incoming.
I am listening to your arguments but as GoodKarma stated they don't really exist aside from your Vig claim and a truckload of WIFOM. You can be sure that if you come up with something good enough, I will view it with an open mind and adjust my position accordingly.
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@Darth
While it is true that I may have briefly mentioned my town read on Archrun on Day 1, when deciding to lynch between Archrun and Shady, at the time it was only a mild town read based on the fact that explanations given by Thrawn made logical sense to me.
After Archrun's post outlining what seemed to be his scum plan of action, Thrawn was indeed almost as good as confirmed townie in my mind. And this was due to my thinking that Archrun was scum. But I don't think I ever claimed that he is a confirmed townie. I did say that he is a confirmed townie if Archrun flipped scum, which he didn't.
Recent postings make me think that Thrawn and Golbat are on the same team. This post stands out:
On August 18 2012 15:10 Golbat wrote:Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 12:55 goodkarma wrote:
@YourHarry:
Any suggestions as to who this someone else is that we should lynch?
My first thoughts are either Orchrow or you.
You seem to be very interested in keeping thrawn alive as long as possible... I suggest you start making some meaningful suggestions as to who you feel looks scummier. And it would also be helpful if you commented on people's most recent cases against thrawn, Orchrow, and yourself instead of continuing to strive to keep Thrawn alive.
There are situations here where the vigi still shouldn't claim. Like what if there is an sk, but the vigi hasn't used his shot yet? A vigi counter claim here would be terrible, as he could wind up rb'ed by scum and NK'ed before he can do anything.
And if we wait, who's to say town doesn't get a successful medic save or rb? Or that scum or the sk (if he exists) doesn't just sit back and do nothing for one night? There's a few different ways that there could be an sk but fewer than two night kills.
Waiting achieves nothing. My read, and the read of several of us here, is that thrawn is scum. It's time for him to go. Read through the case points against him, and show us why you feel he might be town. It's more productive than your WIFOM defense of thrawn you're presenting now. I am in agreement that we should just lynch thrawn here. We seem to have caught a scum or even two, I think if thrawn flips scum then YH is almost certainly scum.
Obviously, from my perspective, this only sounds like Golbat is trying to mislynch me knowing that Thrawn will flip scum.
There are other two players who suspect me of being scum with Thrawn: Darth and GK. But despite my previous suspicion of GK, their outlining of cases actually make some logical sense right now and they seem to be actually trying to scum hunt. (And I admit that I may look scummy right now for flip flopping my vote and trying to defend Thrawn). On the other hand, Golbat suddenly shows up and basically sheeps other people's cases. Only thing that seems a bit weird is that he is one of the first players to cast a vote against Thrawn, when day 2 opened, after Darth. However, this may be mafia QT planned action to encourage Golbat to bus against Thrawn - one who is likely to be suspected anyway due to Day 1 mislynch of Shady.
More importantly, Thrawn suddenly suspects Golbat, because he is lurking. Even though there are other lurkers, he specifically picks out Golbat just because he recently posted. While I agree that pressuring lurkers is a good strategy, Thrawn did not have any interaction with Golbat... but all of the sudden, he singles him out. Thrawn at this point knows that his lynch is imminent, and that there is nothing he can do to avoid flipping red. This to me seems like his attempt to distance himself from his scum partner in Golbat:
On August 18 2012 15:40 thrawn2112 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 15:22 goodkarma wrote:@Thrawn: On August 18 2012 15:04 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 18 2012 14:52 goodkarma wrote:On August 18 2012 14:35 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 18 2012 14:29 goodkarma wrote:
A cornered scum would have no problem lying about his role to get out of a lynch, and that's what I see is the case with Thrawn. Like stutters said, a scum role claiming vig when he doesn't know who the real vig is would be pretty bad play because the scum would be leaving himself open to a counter claim when he has no idea who the vig is. The problem with this logic is that no one knows if there's an sk + Show Spoiler +(except the sk, if he does exist) . So, there may not even be a vigilante... The scum player wouldn't know this. He would be gambling on there not being a vig.And you felt it was necessary to inquire if there could be two vigis, a setup that though possible is fairly unlikely. It feels like you're already trying to find an escape route if you get caught up in your lie. I asked if there could be 2 vigs because I was planning on asking for a vig counter claim. Since there could be two I decided asking for a counter claim was a bad idea because if there is another vig and he counter claimed then I would look pretty bad. So then you would agree it's possible, that a scum player would make a vig role claim in your shoes? Honestly, we could argue to death your vigi. role claim, but it's only a waste of time. I want to hear what you have to say about the case points currently against you. Read up on my case on you, which is posted right before the day 2 post. And tell me where in that case I'm wrong about you. I'm tired of hearing role claims and WIFOM from you. The longer you stall in providing an actual defense, the guiltier you're looking. You are right that there is no evidence in either direction to prove or disprove my vig claim. I only vig claimed to give an explanation as to how things could have worked out the way they did if I am town. I'm going to respond to your post, but it is VERY long and references tons of other posts all of which are very long so don't expect a response for quite awhile. I am also busy scumhunting but this is having to be done on my own because I don't have any credibility right now. Just to give you an idea of what leads I'm going after, here is my interpretation of what's going on. So far 3 town players have been killed/lynched. The scum I suspected (archrun and shady) of being behind my D1 lynch case turned out to be town. While this is going on there are a few players that have posted very, very little content. My conclusion is that either the scum team are doing an extremely good job of hiding their actions or that there is at least one, if not probably more than 1 scum among the lurkers. I am currently looking at Gobalt because his latest contribution was a vote for me and his only motivation for that vote was that he agreed with what others have said. Since the shady lynching he hasn't contributed anything beyond the post I pointed out in my post before this one and I would like to hear what he has to say. There are other lurkers too but since he is in the thread right now we had better get him posting while we can.
Taken together, I think this strongly suggests that Thrawn and Golbat are scums together.
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+ Show Spoiler +On August 17 2012 08:21 Golbat wrote:Here's my case on Thrawn, I apologize for the lateness and lurkiness so far, I have been not really paying attention to this game so far because I'm right in the middle of prepping for college and spending time with family and friends I won't be seeing for a while, but I'll try to give this game everything I have when I can. At first, he really plays up how much of a newbie he is, and how he doesn't know anything about playing. He says that he's planning on reading several of the mafia guides in the pregame. But his questions are so simply answered by READING ANY MAFIA GUIDE and or the OP of this thread that it is obvious he did not bother to do any of the reading he claimed. This to me is a clear indicator of someone who wants a simple explanation for their bad play. "Oh sorry i'm just new". I used the new player excuse in XXII and it got me lynched. I'm sure if he had done the reading he would have read "don't just claim newbie lol u will die". That's just one of the things he does that I find to be scummy. Not to rehash other's discussion on this, but he has been sheeping and avoiding making his own reads the entire game as well. from Show nested quote +On August 15 2012 13:52 thrawn2112 wrote:
YourHarry, who do you find most scummy at this exact point in time? to Show nested quote +On August 16 2012 07:11 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 16 2012 05:27 Ochrow wrote:My two cents on Shady: My initial inclination when I see somebody being as aggressive as he is, this coming only from live games not forum, is that they are scum. However, every single time that I have been in this sort of situation and gotten a scum vibe from somebody being overly aggressive I have been wrong. So for me that history has me thinking that that Shady is town, just an incredibly aggressive one. However at the same time I think that he may be a bit overly aggressive and reading too much into people's posts, as he has made two rather strong accusations against Solar and JHyut that I feel are more or less unfounded. On Solar: As I originally said I felt that his play was not at all pro-town but, assuming he is telling the truth about the acting and that he didn't just pull it out of his ass, he has really turned around and is very much giving off a townie feel. On YH: So far I haven't really been able to get much of a read on him. While he was posting one-liners at the beginning, as he said he was actually able to get his point across in them, granted that his point wasn't always a great one to get across (ie Oh I have a secret read but I'm not sharing it). But since his explanation, which to me seems to be entirely understandable, he too is giving off a town feel. As for any reads I have, in most of the games I've played there has been at least one scum that was just purely a lurker, and as such I get a bit of a scum feeling from Archrun. He has only three posts all only a few sentences, long enough to not be pointed out as one-liners but only just. I guess I also get suspicious of any first post that just focuses on O hai thar I'm a townie yay killing scum. While I know everybody is trying to prove themselves as town I just get bad feelings when the substance of somebody's post is: On August 15 2012 10:10 Archrun wrote:
As a Townee, I promote any policy that helps us catch scum, but we must back accusation up with evidence(which this policy should provided) and reason. On top of that in his three posts he doesn't get into what he thinks about who might be scum but is just theorizing or throwing out a soft defense. I may be totally off on here but until he posts a bit more or contributes something of substance I am going to throw out ##FoS ArchrunAs per Solar's question I hope this helps, and if there was any curiosity about the reasoning behind my general consensus post, it seemed like a lot of people were in more or less violent agreement over the Solar issue so I wanted to throw out my understanding of events in the hope that it might lead to shorter and/or fewer posts beating that dead horse. FOS ArchrunArchrun, you have made 3 posts so far and none of them have had anything directly to do with scumhunting. Can you tell us what you think about shady's claims concerning solar, myself, and newharry? Which is the beginning of a really poor case on Archrun based on that he is lurking and provided the least amount of content. And that's pretty much his case. He spends the remainder of the time up until now either asking for other peoples reads or talking about archrun, until joining the shady wagon. He mentions several times how his vote was "not an OMGUS" and then he says this. Show nested quote +On August 17 2012 05:34 thrawn2112 wrote:
Can somebody try to convince me why I shouldn't vote for shady and instead vote for a lurker? I am confident in my vote for shady, but there is still the possibility that he is town and that he made a terrible case. I think it is more likely that he is scum, but if someone can convince me that a specific lurker is a way more likely to be scum then I will change my vote. This has nothing to do with my confidence for reading shady as scum. He's begging people to post something so he can sheep it. It's so far beyond just poor play that I can't really believe he isn't scum. He talks about scumhunting and how everyone else should do it, without ever doing it himself. If that isn't scummy, I don't know what is.
In addition to this post, I'd like to further my case on Thrawn, in response to his accusation of me simply sheeping the consensus vote, which I feel I am obviously NOT doing.
In two separate occasions, I have made posts prodding accusing thrawn, and both times he has blatantly ignored me without responding.
The first was this+ Show Spoiler +On August 15 2012 15:18 Golbat wrote:
Hey guys! This is my second game (Not counting XXIII where I /obs'd after the reset). Hopefully I play better than I did in my last game t.t
So far, I think that the scummiest person i've seen is thrawn. He's not really said much of substance, which is of course understandable being so early in the game, but his fixation on making sure people know there could be an SK in the game is a little bit strange. The other person I find a little bit unnerving is Shady Sands. I feel like after the fiasco that was day 1 of XXII, Shady might have learned that new players who make emotionally-charged defenses of themselves and generally overreact to being targeted by someone is a trait of someone who is town. Perhaps Shady preparing a wagon that is simple to wash your hands of after the flip ("Well he WAS acting pretty scummy")
To which he responded: On August 15 2012 15:25 thrawn2112 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 15 2012 15:18 Golbat wrote:
So far, I think that the scummiest person i've seen is thrawn. He's not really said much of substance, which is of course understandable being so early in the game, but his fixation on making sure people know there could be an SK in the game is a little bit strange.
Is this something I need to defend myself on? I am not sober right now so I don't think I could type a clear response till I wake up. Going to sleep now, I hope to wake up and see some more posts.
Then he never addressed it again to my knowledge.
I would think nothing of it if he hadn't accused me of having no reason to vote for him besides majority opinion. Despite being the second person to vote him, despite having posted a case on him right before the lynch. He's completely ignored everything I've posted on him. "town thrawn" would have at least addressed the second case, and probably the first as well. "scum thrawn" (or as I like to say, "real thrawn") could easily ignore them. The mistake is accusing me of not having my own reasons to vote him.
I can only assume he's backed into a corner and this is his strategy to divert attention from him en masse
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On August 18 2012 16:05 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 16:00 Golbat wrote:On August 18 2012 15:59 DarthPunk wrote:On August 18 2012 15:52 DarthPunk wrote:On August 18 2012 15:40 thrawn2112 wrote:
You are right that there is no evidence in either direction to prove or disprove my vig claim. I only vig claimed to give an explanation as to how things could have worked out the way they did if I am town.
How about you claimed Vig because you are the Vig? Huge Slip. What townie says 'if I was town'? HUGE SCUMSLIP not for the first time thrawn is talking through the perspective of scum acting as town. Isn't that the same way you caught Zork in XXII? I was Godfather in that game. but yes it was similar.
By "you", I mean town of course
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Keep busing your scum partner.
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EDBWOP: Golbat, keep busing your scum partner.
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So basically, your "case" against your scum partner is that he did not answer your question? Personally, I don't even remember reading those questions nor do I really remember you participating much. And you felt the need to point out that you were the second person to place a vote on Thrawn - to distance yourself from him.
Seriously, not answering questions from a lurker who barely posted seems like a forced reason to put more suspicion on Thrawn, which seems like an attempt to protect yourself after Thrawn flips scum.
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The bold is my response, the bold/underline is yourharry's words.
On August 18 2012 16:12 YourHarry wrote:@Darth While it is true that I may have briefly mentioned my town read on Archrun on Day 1, when deciding to lynch between Archrun and Shady, at the time it was only a mild town read based on the fact that explanations given by Thrawn made logical sense to me. After Archrun's post outlining what seemed to be his scum plan of action, Thrawn was indeed almost as good as confirmed townie in my mind. And this was due to my thinking that Archrun was scum. But I don't think I ever claimed that he is a confirmed townie. I did say that he is a confirmed townie if Archrun flipped scum, which he didn't. Recent postings make me think that Thrawn and Golbat are on the same team. This post stands out: Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 15:10 Golbat wrote:On August 18 2012 12:55 goodkarma wrote:
@YourHarry:
Any suggestions as to who this someone else is that we should lynch?
My first thoughts are either Orchrow or you.
You seem to be very interested in keeping thrawn alive as long as possible... I suggest you start making some meaningful suggestions as to who you feel looks scummier. And it would also be helpful if you commented on people's most recent cases against thrawn, Orchrow, and yourself instead of continuing to strive to keep Thrawn alive.
There are situations here where the vigi still shouldn't claim. Like what if there is an sk, but the vigi hasn't used his shot yet? A vigi counter claim here would be terrible, as he could wind up rb'ed by scum and NK'ed before he can do anything.
And if we wait, who's to say town doesn't get a successful medic save or rb? Or that scum or the sk (if he exists) doesn't just sit back and do nothing for one night? There's a few different ways that there could be an sk but fewer than two night kills.
Waiting achieves nothing. My read, and the read of several of us here, is that thrawn is scum. It's time for him to go. Read through the case points against him, and show us why you feel he might be town. It's more productive than your WIFOM defense of thrawn you're presenting now. I am in agreement that we should just lynch thrawn here. We seem to have caught a scum or even two, I think if thrawn flips scum then YH is almost certainly scum. Obviously, from my perspective, this only sounds like Golbat is trying to mislynch me knowing that Thrawn will flip scum. I see nowhere in that post where I even hint at knowing anything. I simply said that if thrawn flips scum, the guy who is defending him is likely to be scum as well. That guy is you, and you've already been marked out as scummy by several people, including myself. There are other two players who suspect me of being scum with Thrawn: Darth and GK. But despite my previous suspicion of GK, their outlining of cases actually make some logical sense right now and they seem to be actually trying to scum hunt. (And I admit that I may look scummy right now for flip flopping my vote and trying to defend Thrawn). On the other hand, Golbat suddenly shows up and basically sheeps other people's cases. Only thing that seems a bit weird is that he is one of the first players to cast a vote against Thrawn, when day 2 opened, after Darth. However, this may be mafia QT planned action to encourage Golbat to bus against Thrawn - one who is likely to be suspected anyway due to Day 1 mislynch of Shady. False. You and Thrawn seem to be suffering from the same inability to acknowledge my posts outlining my reasons for believing thrawn is scum. Possibly a scum tactic to cast suspicion on me? More importantly, Thrawn suddenly suspects Golbat, because he is lurking. Even though there are other lurkers, he specifically picks out Golbat just because he recently posted. Is this not a legitimate thing for a cornered scum to do? While I agree that pressuring lurkers is a good strategy, Thrawn did not have any interaction with Golbat... but all of the sudden, he singles him out. Thrawn at this point knows that his lynch is imminent, and that there is nothing he can do to avoid flipping red. This to me seems like his attempt to distance himself from his scum partner in Golbat: Show nested quote +On August 18 2012 15:40 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 18 2012 15:22 goodkarma wrote:@Thrawn: On August 18 2012 15:04 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 18 2012 14:52 goodkarma wrote:On August 18 2012 14:35 thrawn2112 wrote:On August 18 2012 14:29 goodkarma wrote:
A cornered scum would have no problem lying about his role to get out of a lynch, and that's what I see is the case with Thrawn. Like stutters said, a scum role claiming vig when he doesn't know who the real vig is would be pretty bad play because the scum would be leaving himself open to a counter claim when he has no idea who the vig is. The problem with this logic is that no one knows if there's an sk + Show Spoiler +(except the sk, if he does exist) . So, there may not even be a vigilante... The scum player wouldn't know this. He would be gambling on there not being a vig.And you felt it was necessary to inquire if there could be two vigis, a setup that though possible is fairly unlikely. It feels like you're already trying to find an escape route if you get caught up in your lie. I asked if there could be 2 vigs because I was planning on asking for a vig counter claim. Since there could be two I decided asking for a counter claim was a bad idea because if there is another vig and he counter claimed then I would look pretty bad. So then you would agree it's possible, that a scum player would make a vig role claim in your shoes? Honestly, we could argue to death your vigi. role claim, but it's only a waste of time. I want to hear what you have to say about the case points currently against you. Read up on my case on you, which is posted right before the day 2 post. And tell me where in that case I'm wrong about you. I'm tired of hearing role claims and WIFOM from you. The longer you stall in providing an actual defense, the guiltier you're looking. You are right that there is no evidence in either direction to prove or disprove my vig claim. I only vig claimed to give an explanation as to how things could have worked out the way they did if I am town. I'm going to respond to your post, but it is VERY long and references tons of other posts all of which are very long so don't expect a response for quite awhile. I am also busy scumhunting but this is having to be done on my own because I don't have any credibility right now. Just to give you an idea of what leads I'm going after, here is my interpretation of what's going on. So far 3 town players have been killed/lynched. The scum I suspected (archrun and shady) of being behind my D1 lynch case turned out to be town. While this is going on there are a few players that have posted very, very little content. My conclusion is that either the scum team are doing an extremely good job of hiding their actions or that there is at least one, if not probably more than 1 scum among the lurkers. I am currently looking at Gobalt because his latest contribution was a vote for me and his only motivation for that vote was that he agreed with what others have said. Since the shady lynching he hasn't contributed anything beyond the post I pointed out in my post before this one and I would like to hear what he has to say. There are other lurkers too but since he is in the thread right now we had better get him posting while we can. Taken together, I think this strongly suggests that Thrawn and Golbat are scums together.
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On August 18 2012 08:57 goodkarma wrote:So, I have a pretty long post I’ve been putting together on my latest scum reads. I now strongly believe that Shady was on the right track. Thrawn, Ochrow, and YourHarry are the three scum. Evidence of a shared QT:First, I’d like to bring to everyone’s attention the evidence that both Thrawn and Ochrow are sharing a QT. Shady has brought this up before, and so have I, but I don’t feel everyone has looked back on their filters to determine how obvious this is. Listed below, for your reference are the two posts that show this most clearly. Notice the timestamps, as they are identical. There is zero chance that one came in and later “copied” the other: Show nested quote +On August 16 2012 05:27 Ochrow wrote:My two cents on Shady: My initial inclination when I see somebody being as aggressive as he is, this coming only from live games not forum, is that they are scum. However, every single time that I have been in this sort of situation and gotten a scum vibe from somebody being overly aggressive I have been wrong. So for me that history has me thinking that that Shady is town, just an incredibly aggressive one. However at the same time I think that he may be a bit overly aggressive and reading too much into people's posts, as he has made two rather strong accusations against Solar and JHyut that I feel are more or less unfounded. On Solar: As I originally said I felt that his play was not at all pro-town but, assuming he is telling the truth about the acting and that he didn't just pull it out of his ass, he has really turned around and is very much giving off a townie feel. On YH: So far I haven't really been able to get much of a read on him. While he was posting one-liners at the beginning, as he said he was actually able to get his point across in them, granted that his point wasn't always a great one to get across (ie Oh I have a secret read but I'm not sharing it). But since his explanation, which to me seems to be entirely understandable, he too is giving off a town feel. As for any reads I have, in most of the games I've played there has been at least one scum that was just purely a lurker, and as such I get a bit of a scum feeling from Archrun. He has only three posts all only a few sentences, long enough to not be pointed out as one-liners but only just. I guess I also get suspicious of any first post that just focuses on O hai thar I'm a townie yay killing scum. While I know everybody is trying to prove themselves as town I just get bad feelings when the substance of somebody's post is: On August 15 2012 10:10 Archrun wrote:
As a Townee, I promote any policy that helps us catch scum, but we must back accusation up with evidence(which this policy should provided) and reason. On top of that in his three posts he doesn't get into what he thinks about who might be scum but is just theorizing or throwing out a soft defense. I may be totally off on here but until he posts a bit more or contributes something of substance I am going to throw out ##FoS ArchrunAs per Solar's question I hope this helps, and if there was any curiosity about the reasoning behind my general consensus post, it seemed like a lot of people were in more or less violent agreement over the Solar issue so I wanted to throw out my understanding of events in the hope that it might lead to shorter and/or fewer posts beating that dead horse. Show nested quote +On August 16 2012 05:27 thrawn2112 wrote:
Policy?
A few people started talking about policy at the beginning and we never actually came to an agreement on that because of solar's trolling. Can we say whether or not we are going to FOS lurkers? Of course this doesnt not mean an automatic lynching, but it will help to keep everyone posting so that we can all get better reads. My vote is that yes, this policy should be put in effect, even though we have almost wasted the opportunity to do so.
Concerning the YH topic:
3 possibilities immediately come to mind:
One, that YH is being honest about him thinking that solar and gk are masons. That will explain basically all of his scummy sounding posting earlier in the game. Two, that he and solar are masons. This would explain his strong conviction that solar is town, and could also explain why he posted like he had information to hide. Three, YH and solar, or maybe just YH is scum. This would also account for the cryptic way he was posting. The only part that I'm having trouble with, is that 4 minutes after voting for me for being suspicious of shady, he unvoted me and changed his vote to solar. 21 minutes later is when according to him, he came up with his 'solar as mason' theory and unvoted again. So if YH is scum and solar is scum, why would YH ever vote for solar in the first place? It could be a sneaky manipulation but i doubt that is the case. This makes me believe that no, YH and solar cannot BOTH be scum. YH's quick changing of votes is what I'm currently looking at to see if I can make any reads as far as YH is concerned.
At this point I think YH's alliance hinges on whether or not you believe his story about suspecting solar and gk of being masons. At one point in the game I was willing to indulge the thought that YH and solar were masons based off a weak read I was making, (the extra information YH was hinting at) so it is easy for me to believe that YH did the same. YH, for now I believe your story and do not think either you or solar are scum.
Solarsail
Just to confirm what I'm thinking, do we all trust solarsail's account of his first few posts, that he was trolling to get responses? I'm assuming we all do? Myself, I believe him. I don't think a player who posts like he initially posted would be able to post how he is posting now unless they were trolling. Initially he was the most scummy player, but at that point in the game less than half the players had even posted. As time went on I began to think that no he's not scum, but he's a town player who just doesn't understand what the tone of this game is supposed to be. Honestly solar you were posting like you had just come in from a sc2 tournament thread, it was very hard to know what to make of that. IMO you actually caused more harm than if you would have allowed the discussion to remain on policy talk. The first few pages of posting were very chaotic and full of people making baseless accusations set by the tone of how you chose to play the game. Yes, I do think that myself and maybe some other people are able to make reads off the situation you created, but I think that those reads could have come regardless of your trolling.
mkfuba07, after reading my post do you agree with my claim that YH is town? If not, why not? Now look also at the nature of the posts. What is discussed is almost identical. Both talk about Solarsail, and both conclude that he is not currently suspicious. Both also conclude that YourHarry is town. This point should bring up red flags on everyone’s radars, as this is simply not the prevailing viewpoint of the thread at the time, and they both give pretty weak reasoning for their conclusion. Both also discuss policy lurker lynching. Here, Ochrow FoS’s Archrun (in the same post), and thrawn FoS’s Archrun about two hours later. What are the odds that that many different topics were discussed by two people randomly at the exact same time without the help of a QT? I’d say pretty much none. As I originally posted, though, I felt that two scum associating themselves this closely was nearly suicidal. I suspected them to be masons. But neither have come forward with such a claim, even as Thrawn was nearly lynched day one. Additionally, neither of them have been interested in scum-hunting, spending much of their energies with wishy-washy “I don’t know” posts on others’ reads and pursuing the lurker lynch of Archrun. I will lay this out in my posts against each candidate below:
You say there is 0 chance that we copied each other. I say that there is 0 chance a scum team would post eerily similar arguments so close together. I have been questioned over and over for what was an unfortunate coincidence.
Case against Thrawn:
So the underlying theme here is that none of these three is interested in scum-hunting. Let’s summarize Thrawn’s posting history, in chronological order:
-Wastes a bunch of time discussing the possibility of an SK
-dismisses case on solarsail as emotional response either town or scum could do
-casts light suspicion on YourHarry
-Summarizes stance on solarsail, magically decides YourHarry is now town, and starts “lurker lynch” policy
-Tunnels Archrun
-OMGUS votes Shady
I did not "waste a bunch of time discussing the possibilty of an SK." I only made one post at the very beginning of the game when everyone was focusing on policy. I dropped the issue because nobody posted saying it was an issue worth talking about. "Wastes a bucnh of time" is such an extreme exaggeration of a single post at the beginning of the game.
I did not go after Archrun for no reason. I have explained my reason several times, he was one of the lurkers, and was was the only lurker that had not contributed anything useful to discussion.
My vote for Shady was not an OMGUS vote. It was based on me not being able to understand how he could possibly think I was scum after all the counter arguments I had given him. Not knowing how he (as a town player) could think I was scum, I began to think he was scum and that he was trying to set me up. He continued being unreasonable so finally I thought he was confirmed scum and voted for him.
That pretty much sums up his play to date. The only real stances I’ve gotten from his play so far:
-YourHarry is town because his mason case was “believable.” He has to date not said anything to address the scum behavior others have pointed out in YourHarry’s play. This is a weak claim with very little to back it up. I find it interesting that he doesn’t go so far as to determine Solar to be town by the same logic. Most players would say YourHarry is a neutral read by Thrawn’s logic, as believing YourHarry’s mason case was genuinely made does not in any way support that YourHarry’s case was made with a town motivation in the first place. He also has mentioned his FOS on YourHarry was hastily made, which is true. It didn’t really feel like he had any conviction behind it, and it feels like two scum trying to distance themselves. I originally said that he was thinking in binary. “If I can’t confirm YourHarry is scum, then he’s town.” But looking at how wishy-washy he’s been on SolarSail, this isn’t the case. This was a deliberate choice, and why I believe scum Thrawn is covering for scum YourHarry here.
Regarding my play:
My play at the beginning of D1 was pretty weak, but I think I was right for FOS'ing archrun based on what he had posted so far. As D1 came to an end I think I drastically improved my play. I was able to present logical arguments backed up by a lot of quotes from filters, and I did participate in scumhunting.
I think that if not for me, Shady wouldn't have been lynched. I went out on a limb to vote for him, because my reasoning for voting shady was based on me being town. This is not information other people had so I was in no way bandwagoning onto a shady lynch. My vote for shady was based on something only I knew, which was that I was town.
My next post will contain my FOS candidate. I can only request that those of you who are convinced that I am scum to investigate my next scum read because when I flip blue you won't have wasting precious scumhunting time.
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I'd like to point out that if thrawn does not flip red, that does not make yourharry equally not red. Due to plurality lynch, my vote can stay where it is without fear of a no-lynch, but I will shed no tears if the rest of the town thinks that harry is scummier. A scum kill is a scum kill after all.
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Remaining player list, excluding myself:
DarthPunk
goodkarma
Golbat
thrawn2112
Jhuyt
SolarSail
Z-BosoN
Stutters695
Ochrow
Darth is almost for sure not the SK, especially because he was roleblocked and there was a second night kill.
SK should also be very quick to dismiss any vigilante claim, because there were only two night kills. SK, if vig claim is true, should have expected 3 night kills. In this regard, Darth, Golbat, Solar and GK are likely candidates. Darth, for reason mentioned above, is not SK. Golbat I think is scum. Either Solar or GK could be SK.
Also, assuming that SK was aiming for the scum, he must have thought that mkfuba is scum. In this respect, Solar or Ochrow could be the SK because they both believed my mason-read claim and may have thought that mkfuba who was suspicious of me was scum. This is, admittedly, a weak connection but I think this is a possibility. Solar also was one of the players who quickly dismissed Thrawn's vigilante claim.
Z-boson hasn't posted today yet, but he seemed to suspect me on Day 1 so I don't think he would have targeted mkfuba as SK. So, unlikely to be the SK.
Stutters makes this possibly suspicious post regarding SK on Day 1:
On August 15 2012 10:29 Stutters695 wrote:
In regards to an SK:
I agree with discussing the SK being a waste of time. It will become obvious very quickly if there is an SK when multiple people are dying nightly.
He also ends up voting for Archrun, and may have thought that I was townie. Thus, Stutter targeting mkfuba, who was suspicious of me, could be consistent with Stutter being the SK.
So, currently I think two likely SK candidates are Solar and Stutter and then maybe GoodKarma.
For now though, we should focus more on lynching the scums than SK, as SK could help us target some of the scums.
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EPT
