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On August 11 2012 01:01 sciberbia wrote:
Anyway, I didn't get to as much filter reading last night as I would have liked, and I really don't know who I'd most like to lynch today. I agree that HiroPro's vote switch was suspicious, but it probably means nothing is prplhz is town, and possibly means everything if prplhz is scum, so I'm not sure what to make of the situation, as I am pretty null on prplhz right now.
On August 12 2012 08:59 sciberbia wrote:Show nested quote +On August 12 2012 08:54 Keirathi wrote:On August 12 2012 08:18 sciberbia wrote:
@Keirathi
Is there any reason you didn't include HiroPro on this list, or are you still suspicious of HiroPro? I ask because I'm very interested in a possible HiroPro lynch today. Mostly because in my thorough read-through of filters during the night phase, I started thinking that there's a much higher chance of Hiro being scum if prplhz is. If prplhz is scum, then the few actual things that Hiro did on d1 point towards him being scum as well. But why would scum Hiro feel the need to change his vote from prplhz to Forumite when town was basically evenly split? Not that its impossible for Hiro to be scum without prpl, but it makes much more sense to me to lynch prplhz first. If prplhz is townwhy would scum HiroPro make a dubious voteswitch just to lynch one townie over another townie? Doesn't make a whole lot of sense. If prplhz is scumObviously, the vote switch is very sketchy if prplhz is scum. Do you think this reasoning is valid? Do you think it therefore makes sense to lynch prplhz before HiroPro? On August 12 2012 09:39 sciberbia wrote:
-- I'm quite suspicious of HiroPro as well, and I think HiroPro is only likely to be scum if prplhz is as well
Wait, what!?
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Ah nevermind I'm tired and not as focused as I usually am.
I think HiroPro is suspicious for reasons other than his voteswitch was why the last statement looked so off.
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On August 12 2012 13:12 sciberbia wrote:
@slOosh
Yes I'd be interested to hear your other reasons on HiroPro.
My only real beef with him apart from his vote switch and his lurking is how he goes from saying nothing at all about CL from confidently asserting that CL is scum based on 1 post. And he appeals to 'vet knowledge' in his case against CL, which I think is scummy.
I think it only makes any sense to lynch HiroPro today if you think it is quite possible that HiroPro is scum but that prplhz is town. Do you think this is likely? Do you really see HiroPro making that vote switch in this scenario?
I think it was TL Mafia LIV where town was split between two mislynches, and Risen (scum) switched from one townie to another, much similar to the situation we have here. What ended up happening was that everyone started thinking like you are right now, saying "no way scum would bother doing that", and for that no one suspected him. I'm not saying that HiroPro is scum and prplhz is town - please don't insinuate that I am. I'm saying the possibility is there and pidgeon-holing our mentality like that can really backfire.
My reasons on HiroPro is general feel of his tone and approach. I played with him in PYP: Poison where I he was much more straight forward and clear, and on several occasions this game I find him to do the opposite. So a combination of meta and what I would call indecisiveness (not taking hard stances but willing to cast suspicions no problem).
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In any case it's getting late, so here's probably my last post before deadline.
##Vote: prplhz
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Huh ... looks like scum team is suffering from inactivity just as much as town is. Anyways, 2 for 2 tomorrow with HiroPro?
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Also, was no one roleblocked yesterday?
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I got roleblocked last night.
On August 14 2012 02:22 Custos Luna wrote:
You beat me to the punch there and pretty much said most of what I wanted to.
Mordanis changed his stance on me very quickly once Scib defended me and it was pretty clear that my lynch was not going to go through. A complete turn around from his previous opinions on my alignment.
Also, since HiroPro is indisposed (and is more than likely a scum member), we know there is only one scum member active. Scib was the first (and really only) person to step up and make a case in my defense. He is now dead because of this. Mord is the only active player left who I have been consistently targeting, calling him out as the remaining scum member.
##vote Mordanis
OK this is the 2nd time you have tried to interpret the night kill in a favorable way to yourself. First time with marv was WIFOMish - perhaps an innocent mistake. However in this case, it is clear from sciberbia's filter that he was leaning town on Mordanis as well. With his kill you assert that the NK is scum killing your defender and pushing for your mislynch, when scib could also have defended Mordanis should his lynch appear. Why is this?
On August 14 2012 04:43 ShiaoPi wrote:
@Mord:
Right one point in your favor is the timestamp, that's one thing I messed up with while rereading, does not take away the main effect, that you were piling onto CL as long as you had DYH applying pressure as well. When it subsided a bit due to scib's defense you turned around. Yes your vote was before the case, does not change the fact that you were on the fence about it only as long as you were not the only one doing pressure.
What are you talking about? DYH posted his case after Mordanis' vote, and so how does "piling onto CL" make sense if he did it before? (I doubt you are insinuating DYH is scum as well).
On August 14 2012 04:43 ShiaoPi wrote:
Also regarding prphlz meta, did you check the games that were referenced to? It got pretty obvious that prphlz was different from his town games. I do not believe you to be a mindless sheep, I believe you to check a game in the past to see if the metaargument does any sense. Since you obviously did not check I can only assume two things lazy townie or scum who does not bother to read up on meta, since you know that prphlz is red anyway.
On August 09 2012 21:08 ShiaoPi wrote:
At the moment I really do not know if it is that good to lynch prphlz...It is a lurker lynch bascially, flipping a coin on the chance that it really is different from his meta because he is scum or that he simply lacked time.
On August 09 2012 21:13 ShiaoPi wrote:
I like prhplz response to the votes, adds up onto my thoughts that he is just busy.
What the heck is this?
It's really looking like Mordanis is a suspicious looking towny that's being set-up. Shiaopi is flat out going in with the mentality that Mordanis is scum and nitpicking his filter.
##Vote: Shiaopi
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So ... no one playing this game anymore?
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@DYH: My cases look nicer in other games simply because there is more content to work with. In a slow game like this there is less to work with. My case is solid regardless of how big / small it is.
Reading up on the risk.nuke thing, didn't notice the timing of the vote switch. With his D1 vote do you think he anticipated a Forumite lynch?
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On August 15 2012 06:33 Custos Luna wrote:Show nested quote +On August 15 2012 06:24 slOosh wrote:
@DYH: My cases look nicer in other games simply because there is more content to work with. In a slow game like this there is less to work with. My case is solid regardless of how big / small it is.
Reading up on the risk.nuke thing, didn't notice the timing of the vote switch. With his D1 vote do you think he anticipated a Forumite lynch? See, I'm not sure. This is what's confusing me. It would have been rather ballsy to sit on prplhz even in the face of a D1 scum lynch.
Well the fact was that a prplhz was very possible D1 and that only near the end did people sway off. It could have been that he anticipated a prplhz lynch ...
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Ok yea that makes sense. Reread the context and here's what I got:
On August 09 2012 14:15 Blazinghand wrote:
Vote Count
prplhz (5): DoYouHas, Marvellosity, HiroPro, Forumite, Keirathi
Forumite (3): Sciberbia, slOosh, prplhz
Mordanis (2): ShiaoPi, Custos Luna
prplhz is currently set to be lynched.
The deadline is in ~9.75 hours at Thursday, Aug 09 3:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00). The person with the most votes at the end of the day will be lynched.
Following this is a throwaway vote on marv by Mordanis, then risk's vote. I think he voted anticipating prplhz's lynch.
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Which reminds me we should start casting votes to prevent any last-minute switches. I would have liked to discussed ShiaoPi but it seems like he went afk and we might not have time to switch over. risk is looking more and more a good alternative.
##Unvote: ShiaoPi
##Vote: risk.nuke
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Gah. I'll be posting my full thoughts hopefully nearer to deadline this time.
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Gah sorry guys, overslept and was late for my presentation.
Double lynch will not work because to do it we need a split of 2-2 on the two scum, which requires co-operation of scum since there are only three of us townies, let alone the danger of if we lynch scum and town, where the scum can just last minute switch so only town dies. We need to consolidate early on one scum target - thinking ahead in this scenario is very dangerous.
The scum we need to lynch today is ShiaoPi.
Vote Analysis:
D1:
On August 09 2012 21:08 ShiaoPi wrote:At the moment I really do not know if it is that good to lynch prphlz...It is a lurker lynch bascially, flipping a coin on the chance that it really is different from his meta because he is scum or that he simply lacked time. Reading through the latest points of scib got me convinced that Forumite might actually be scum. Coupled with Mord actually starting to make sense, when I look at it from his point of view (no offense  ) and my discomfort with a prphlz lynch I expressed above, I will change my vote to Forumite. Since my vote on Mord achieved some success in getting him to post more sensible and it probably won't get any traction looking at it in 3 hours to deadline. ##unvote
##Vote: Forumite
Toward the end of D1 ShiaoPi puts his vote straight onto Forumite's mislynch after prplhz posts his "defense" and town starts swaying. See how the first bold line supports and encourages people to move their votes away from prplhz. But who is he switching onto? The second bold line shows how he says he is convinced that Forumite might be scum. It's very safe and distancing himself when Forumite flipped town. Also note how he says Mord makes sense - I'll address it later but we can see the start of how he is on the fence with Mord and only goes after him when CL starts to.
D2:
ShiaoPi was unable to access internet the whole cycle for a legitimate reason. Unfortunate because he posts 1 hour before deadline when prplhz is already set up to be lynched, and furthermore because his last post before this one prplhz was just another name in a list of equally slightly suspicious people (amongst Mordanis and HiroPro)
On August 10 2012 08:23 ShiaoPi wrote:
Mord:
I believe my stance on him is quite clear from my filter. What I really do not understand is, while he is kind of right to place some distrust on marv his vote seems like such a throwaway especially with him being absent right after. But in regards to his voteswitch he delievers explanation and he makes sense with it. Also I think his play got a tad better since I called him out. I guess wait and see has to be the course of action on him. If he does some (wholly) decent case not like the against me or parts of the one against Marv I could see him as town, but until then no.
Custos:
I liked his play a lot (maybe biased because he was agreeing with me), he is also taking clear stances, trying to convince people of his opinions and as a bonus also did not doublelynch when he had the possibility (that would have been suicidal as scum though if both flipped town, so it might not matter that much.)
Conclusively I want to keep an eye open on prphlz and Mordanis, while I want Hiro to answer my question before I judge him.
as a heads-up I won't have too much time tomorrow and might not make it back before the deadline, will try though. Crashing out now at later than 1 AM. Night!
We see here that ShiaoPi is ok with Mordanis, and putting him on the sidelines. Also notable is that this is where he buddies up to Custos when Custos was not in any danger of being lynched D1. Scum like to buddy town so they aren't suspected.
Post analysis:
I've already pointed out a HUGE contradiction in ShiaoPi's play - that he went in with the mentality that Mordanis is scum and nitpicked his filter for information to incriminate him. This is something only scum do - townies look at information first and then make a conclusion. Since scum already know alignments, they can only pretend to do this, but here he messes up setting up the mislynch and shows how he is just looking for information.
On August 14 2012 07:59 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On August 14 2012 04:43 ShiaoPi wrote:
@Mord:
Right one point in your favor is the timestamp, that's one thing I messed up with while rereading, does not take away the main effect, that you were piling onto CL as long as you had DYH applying pressure as well. When it subsided a bit due to scib's defense you turned around. Yes your vote was before the case, does not change the fact that you were on the fence about it only as long as you were not the only one doing pressure.
What are you talking about? DYH posted his case after Mordanis' vote, and so how does "piling onto CL" make sense if he did it before? (I doubt you are insinuating DYH is scum as well). Show nested quote +On August 14 2012 04:43 ShiaoPi wrote:
Also regarding prphlz meta, did you check the games that were referenced to? It got pretty obvious that prphlz was different from his town games. I do not believe you to be a mindless sheep, I believe you to check a game in the past to see if the metaargument does any sense. Since you obviously did not check I can only assume two things lazy townie or scum who does not bother to read up on meta, since you know that prphlz is red anyway.
Show nested quote +On August 09 2012 21:08 ShiaoPi wrote:
At the moment I really do not know if it is that good to lynch prphlz...It is a lurker lynch bascially, flipping a coin on the chance that it really is different from his meta because he is scum or that he simply lacked time.
Show nested quote +On August 09 2012 21:13 ShiaoPi wrote:
I like prhplz response to the votes, adds up onto my thoughts that he is just busy.
What the heck is this? It's really looking like Mordanis is a suspicious looking towny that's being set-up. Shiaopi is flat out going in with the mentality that Mordanis is scum and nitpicking his filter. ##Vote: Shiaopi
His defense is as follows:
On August 15 2012 18:04 ShiaoPi wrote:
@sloosh:
That's what happens if you miss Day2 almost completely. Those were statements from Day 1, where I thought it might have been possible that he really is just busy. Following Day 2 he still did nothing and if I had been present I would have stated my change of stance on him much earlier, can't do that though without bending time so yeah take this explanation or keep hammering me.
Although it looks like Mord will live another day, I am fine with a risk lynch.
Have to ask though, if risk flips town and Hiro as well, what are your reads?
Now if you read the earlier parts of my case, you would know by now that ShiaoPi thought Mordanis' D1 play was OK! That it was looking better! There are two glaring contradictions here. One is that he is falsifying information to push a case. The second is that the logic he uses to push Mordanis is in fact things that he himself are guilty of. If you read his D1 stance and his D3 stance, they are totally at odds.
On August 16 2012 01:07 ShiaoPi wrote:
gg to both...
anyone mind thinking about lynching Mord now? :>
Once the risk mislynch happens you can see him trying to redirect us to lynch Mordanis! You see him kinda go-with-the-flow, pretending to push for Mordanis but agreeing with whatever mislynch appears! He doesn't ever fight to get Mordanis lynched, which betrays his hesitation to actually push for the lynch.
ShiaoPi is scum and we need to gather all votes on him. If even just one of our votes are misplaced, scum can do a last minute vote switch. We need to consolidate early and fast.
##Vote: ShiaoPi
I'm going on a trip today where internet access will be iffy, so I'm not sure how much I'll be able to respond / explain, but I'll be back in time for the night to discuss the final scum. We can still do it guys!
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I don't know, hence the word iffy. Thoughts on my case or do you think there is someone more surefire scum? Because we NEED to hit scum today.
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Sorry for not being present last cycle, didn't anticipate the trip would interfere with mafia play. Any excuse for lack of internet etc. were all genuine stuff that I would have had as town, I guess it just meshed well with the inactivity of town.
I feel like me and DYH would have been pretty easy to pick out if people re-read in light of flips and with some objectivity. For instance, when prplhz flipped scum no one really looked into D1, where I pushed scib's Forumite case which helped the mislynch. Risk's lynch didn't really make sense and even when he flipped town no one gave regard for his end post read on CL. In an especially small game like this where filter reading would have been easy, no one actually seemed to do so, and Keirathi's flip should have shown that risk's lynch was townie led but scum supported.
But yes inactivity is killer and this is why - I was never really pressured to say something that would show my contradictions. Not that you couldn't go through my filter and see how I have no direction with my reads, but it is doesn't stand out as much. Honestly if scib hadn't died N2 then we would be in huge trouble because we would have been dragged into the spotlight and our words more closely scrutinized.
Good play by DYH, even though he was uncertain / shy early on he really got involved and comfortable with his role.
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EPT
