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On August 06 2012 18:53 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On August 05 2012 03:44 VisceraEyes wrote:
Okay, everyone STOP.
This lynch on WBG is not happening.
Having PMed with him, I'm NOT of the opinion that he's scum and I think we should focus on other, actually scummy candidates. You guys are WIFOMing this lynch to shit.
I fully support a talis lynch upon rereading. He literally asked for a NAMECLAIM from everyone guys. LITERALLY.
##Vote: talismania
I think Bugs is town. I don't want to lynch him. slOosh, you in particular I want to hear more reasoning from. Your only gripe with him seems to be his read on prplhz - so...because you disagree with his read he's scum? Really?
I don't like a grush lynch today either - it feels like a copout. But I totally can see a town Bugs wanting to lynch grush today. Grush was a key factor in the scum victory in LVI, for the same shit he's exhibiting now. However, I agree that we should give our vigs a chance to take care of him. We should be aiming for people we specifically think are scum, and for me that's not wherebugsgo. So I read the pm logs. (Two small corrections for wbg - 1. I claimed vanilla with trudy campbell, not talismania. 2. If you really can't see why I find your play scummy up to the point where you and erandorr started pissing on each other, and if you still think it has anything at all to do with whether or not outing the masons was a good idea, then you must have even bigger irl problems than I thought because I know you're not that stupid.) Anyway, I read the pm logs, and I can't figure out what in there made you think wbg is town. Care to enlighten me? @Talismania, yeahhh... I think there are good reasons to be suspicious of you but I don't think VE picked them. I might be willing to lynch him today. Talismania why didn't you post your terrible plan this game? Also Show nested quote +On August 06 2012 15:58 wherebugsgo wrote:
I forgot to mention that the most suspicious part is that he indicated a willingness to push suspicion onto Toad in the case that the guy he himself was voting(prplhz) flipped town. That's essentially skirting responsibility for the lynch in the case it goes bad bugs what about when toad says if prplh flipped town we should be killing you or talismania because of it? How is that different?
The difference is that I said "Either WBG or Prplhz has to be mafia, maybe even both [given my other assumptions are correct]".
The thing is that I'm not trusting my other assumptions as much anymore after seeing prplhz flip green and I would have loved to get confirmation on those. I had both sloOsh and grush down as town (grush only slightly to be honest) but those two were not involved in anything that could give me information on someone else.
That's why I said I wouldn't mind any of the vets being shot.
I think both Eran and VE are town and I still think WBG is mafia. Seeing Eran or VE flip green however would have proven those basic assumptions to be true, making it way easier to push bugs. Sure we would have lost a green vet but I don't mind a 1v1 trade (technically a 1v2 because of prplhz I guess) and the certainty to know what's going on if that's what're getting.
Again, I really don't like how bugs is going after some random dude today. Sure he has a point with what he's saying but the guy's called "Xsebt" and not Syllo, Bugs, foolishness or whoever you want. I'm just not into trusting a lynch based on a single quote that might as well just be a noob-sign if I don't know the guy.
Sure let's keep on checking that guy and if multiple things like that happen I'm all up for lynching him but right now? No way.
I'd like to see some more focus from Bugs today. And I especially want him to tell us something about people he consideres to be stable / or readable. The thing about noobs is that when they flip there's always a chance that the host suddenly decides to spin a wheel to decide which alignment the noob has instead of showing the real alignment. At least that's what it feels like to me. People make the most stupid kinds of mistakes, especially new guys and it's incredible easy to just go after new guys and point out "well that's bad" or "what he says is bullshit" because new guys do A LOT of mistakes, no matter of alignment.
Because next thing to say after seeing them flip is: "well shit, dude was a noob and he fucked up big time. HOW AM I SUPPOSED TO KNOW HE'S SO BAD?"
And I hopefilly nailed LA, see you later :3
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On August 06 2012 19:33 talismania wrote:
Toad whatcha make of my case on VE? And why do you think he's town?
I kinda agree with you on wbg. I have a twisted hunch that wbg is just trying to see how much stuff he can get away with as scum. The case on xsebt was far too facile and seemed subpar.
haven't read it yet, or at least not carefully enough to talk about it. I got back to my place like an hour ago and I'm relaxing after my exam. Just got in here quickly checking things out and posted something I considered somewhat important.
I don't really mind the case itself on Xsebt because the point he makes is true. It's just that it's a new guy again and like the last time he posted something that's based on one post that has something bad in it or is somehow supposed to definitly show what's going on in this guys head.
You usually can do that kind of thing with vets, if they screw up like that I'm all up for lynching them. That's what I'm referring to when I said "people you consider to be stable". You can't do that with new guys because judging WHY someone did something (specific) is almost impossible if you have to include people making mistakes A LOT as well.
When talking about new guys you usually want to get A LOT of data. You try to point out what is good or wrong with each point of data, put it all in a box, shake it a little and in the end you look at what kind of stuff in there is more often in there than it should be on average.
That's why I pressed so much on that case about grush and glasse because you can't do a thing like that.
He's doing the same thing again and bugs should know better than this.
That's why I want him to talk about people he consideres to be "stable" because we want to find mafia, not people who are doing mistakes. If that were the goal I'd be posting nonstop. Just look at the very bottom of the log with Eran.
Eran rightfully points out that jinglehell is kinda weird, that some of his posts have some issues and I end up saying that I had him down as dopey townie so far.
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reee. Going to mason someone right NAO and he's going to explain what' going on to me :3
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On August 07 2012 19:54 Lazermonkey wrote:
Toad, what do you think about VE? or anyone else who you suspect to be scum for that matter?
I consider it highly unlikely that two out of VE, WBG and Eran are mafia right now. That being said I still consider WBG the scummiest out of those 3 which makes both VE and Eran town besided having a null-read on VE and a town read on Eran so far myself.
So unless we're lynching WBG I'm not willing to lynch into a vet today.
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Although I've got to admit that VE going after Eran, Eran going after WBG and WBG doing bullshit is kinda weird if WBG really is mafia, because that would mean VE got manipulated a lot.
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On August 07 2012 20:18 Lazermonkey wrote:Show nested quote +On August 07 2012 19:59 Toadesstern wrote:On August 07 2012 19:54 Lazermonkey wrote:
Toad, what do you think about VE? or anyone else who you suspect to be scum for that matter?
I consider it highly unlikely that two out of VE, WBG and Eran are mafia right now. That being said I still consider WBG the scummiest out of those 3 which makes both VE and Eran town besided having a null-read on VE and a town read on Eran so far myself. So unless we're lynching WBG I'm not willing to lynch into a vet today. It doesn't seem very unlikely with a WBG lynch atm so who do you want to lynch then? Because my impression of this post is that you have other scum reads than WBG atm. Also why a null tell on VE? Do you not agree with the suspicion on him? I did do some research on one of his older games(Mini mafia II, he played townie). While he was whish washy which eventually got him lynched D2, his reads were very good. Out of the 4 people he suspected at the end that day, 3 of them were scum. He was basing his reads on whether or not someone seemed scummy, rather than if their logic was flawed.
The problem with Town-VE is that he usually has the same problems I have. He either has really good games or he's completly horrible. There's pretty much nothing inbetween(of course there is, but it seems like that because they're so extreme) and those really good games aren't the majority of his games either.
The game you linked (didn't know about it) apparently was one of his good games.
The one he played SK was incredibly good, probably one of the best games I've seen from a not-mafia.
And than on the other side he has those incredible derpage-games "Herpaderpa I'ma going to fakeclaim JoaT as VT on d1 to make sure I win the election, although it should be obvious that I'm no JoaT because I claimed something wrong, so everyone will know I lied but has no idea why". Those are games he turns out to be town a well.
But I've still got to admit I haven't read everything in detail so far. Got to check the big posts again and see what they're about. Just posted to give a little update from my pov and tell people I'm back^^
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Honestly I'd rather lynch into Hassy right now and give us some time to figure out this triangle of bullshit: WBG, VE and Eran
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On August 07 2012 20:45 Lazermonkey wrote:Show nested quote +On August 07 2012 20:34 Toadesstern wrote:
Honestly I'd rather lynch into Hassy right now and give us some time to figure out this triangle of bullshit: WBG, VE and Eran Whaaat? Hassy, the guy with 4 posts on his neck? The only thing he posted of substance is his flawed read and vote on WBG. I agree with that this is not a town move but he has posted far to little for me to determine whether those posts are becuause he is scum or because he isn't playing well.
I was masoned with him and he was talkign with me a lot. So I know he did that on purpose for some reason. Just check out the timesstamps of our logs.
He may have missed the first day because he only masoned me on the 2nd day of the game but he still was talking a lot in sykpe.
I don't know if that stuff had a lot of thought behind it but he definitly had his opinions on things that were going on.
Remember the prplhz lynch yesterday? When I told him that prplhz said he really meant what he said about glasse he instantly said "WAT? I thought that was a joke" or something along those lines. So he at least thought things through and evalutated wether or not some people are still trolling around or already posting something with actual content, which is something that is beyond "just reading the thread".
He could have easily posted something, in fact when he did I pushed him into posting, but he chose not to for some reason and I consider that weird.
Combine that with what I said about the logs when I posted them and I consider him scummy.
But I agree, it's a weak read.
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On August 08 2012 01:33 VisceraEyes wrote:
Talis we're done in PMs - I've wasted enough time in PMs and now people think I'm scum for it. No longer.
what do you think about Talis and what he posted in PMs?
Who would you want to lynch if we were not to lynch into vets?
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The big issue I've got right now is this, from my point of view:
WBG says:
He thinks VE is green
He thinks Eran is green
He thinks Toad is a null. Given how he never mentioned me once in the game and how he suddenly said he thinks Prplhz is mafia I'd actually lean on him judging me as Toad but that's just a guess.
He thought Prplhz was 95% red, in a very opportunistic way, without even mentioning him once in the thread.
VE says:
He thinks WBG is green
He thinks Eran is red.
He thinks Toad is a null.
He thought Prplhz was red.
Eran says:
He thinks WBG is red
He thinks VE is weird, but maybe slightly leaning town? (not sure on that one)
He thinks Toad is green.
He thought Prplhz is red.
Both Eran and VE look way better given their reads. They are actively searching for people and suspecting people. I don't necessarily agree with everything they say or do, as mentioned VE has his weirds moment I considered to be suspicious, but they're trying to find "stuff".
WBG on the other hand does nothing except for popping out 2 townreads on VE and Eran, something WBG usually doesn't like doing (talking about townreads) as far as I recall.
Here's my little Mafia-101: Tell people about some townreads you've got. They're easy to do, you'll be right and people will consider you to be awesome, because you're right. Also you can later on say "lookylooky, I was defending him and he flipped town. Why should I do that as mafia?". As long as you're fine talking about townreads, talk about townreads only mention mafiareads when you have to.
I see that happening with WBG.
WBG focuses on single posts done by new guys, pointing out why they're wrong or why they've got issues, which is all nice and dandy but as mentioned, newbs do mistakes, no matter of alignment so you really want to include a lot of data in your analysis when talking about newbs, so that you can make out what's the most likely scenario, rather than just talking about one post. Telling people Newb-X is mafia because of one post is pretty much impossible to do unless they screw up big time. If that would have happened, everyone else would have realized it as well.
WBG never mentioned Prplhz once in the thread. I know eran did because we were masoned and eran considered prplhz to be scummy way before we were actually switching. WBG however gets in here, tells people prplhz is 95% sure mafia, without giving an explanation, without ever mentioning him and disappears afterwards. Got to admit, haven't read the log between VE and WBG yet, so maybe there's something in there. If that's the case the other points still hold true.
Summary:
I really don't like how wbg keeps being non commited. He never had a "real" scumread. Yes he said grush is mafia, but as mentioned that was a horrible 1-quote-case when talking about a new guy. Yes apparently thought Prplhz was mafia but he never said so or explained why.
Everything he did so far is slinging mud at Eran (and the other way around, but Eran DID something else in this game) and giving away some random townreads which have nothing to do with what want to do early on in a game, because they're so incredible easy to do for mafia and if everyone started talking about townreads it would be incredible easy for mafia to blend in by just posting some random townreads while mixing in some of their buddies every now and than.
Both VE and Eran have their issues, but all together they're both looking WAY more townish than WBG. They're not scared to be wrong and called people mafia d1 (VE vs eran+prplhz / Eran vs wbg+prplhz) while WBG is completly doding that part of the game for some reason.
He's either scared to be wrong or he can't even find a single thing that might be considered scummy. Both things are incredible mafia traits. First thing because they KNOW they are wrong in the first play, while townies think they're right. Second thing because mafias KNOW their target is not mafia, so they naturally look at thigns with confirmation bias while townies look at things neutraly.
If we have to lynch into vets I'm willing to lynch WBG as I don't think mafia has 2 vets in a 5 vet-game with mafia having 2 KP 4 games in a row now that we've got a ML on d1.
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Just posting this again because it got spammed away and I can make it somewhat more proper english as well. So some EBWOPs inside the quote :p
On August 08 2012 02:26 Toadesstern wrote:
The big issue I've got right now is this, from my point of view:
WBG says:
He thinks VE is green
He thinks Eran is green
He thinks Toad is a null. Given how he never mentioned me once in the game and how he suddenly said he thinks Prplhz is mafia I'd actually lean on him judging me as Toad but that's just a guess.
He thought Prplhz was 95% red, in a very opportunistic way, without even mentioning him once in the thread.
VE says:
He thinks WBG is green
He thinks Eran is red.
He thinks Toad is a null.
He thought Prplhz was red.
Eran says:
He thinks WBG is red
He thinks VE is weird, but maybe slightly leaning town? (not sure on that one)
He thinks Toad is green.
He thought Prplhz is red.
Both Eran and VE look way better given their reads. They are actively searching for people and suspecting people. I don't necessarily agree with everything they say or do, as mentioned VE has his weird moments I considered to be suspicious, but they're trying to find "stuff".
WBG on the other hand does nothing except for popping out 2 townreads on VE and Eran, something WBG usually doesn't like doing i I recall correctly.
Here's my little Mafia-101: Tell people about some townreads you've got. They're easy to do, you'll be right and people will consider you to be awesome, because you're right. Also you can later on say "lookylooky, I was defending him and he flipped town. Why should I do that as mafia?". As long as you're fine talking about townreads, talk about townreads only mention mafiareads when you have to.
I see that happening with WBG.
WBG focuses on single posts done by new guys, pointing out why they're wrong or why they've got issues, which is all nice and dandy but as mentioned, newbs do mistakes, no matter of alignment. You really want to include a lot of data in your analysis when talking about newbs, so that you can make out what's the most likely scenario, rather than just talking about one post. Telling people Newb-X is mafia because of one post is pretty much impossible to do unless they screw up big time. If that would had happened, everyone else would have realized it as well. [Annotation: I suck at making if-sentences in english, so no idea if that is proper english... why can't it just be like in german "if X would be X, then Y would be Y" all the way...]
WBG never mentioned Prplhz once in the thread until he had to, to avoid the lynch. I know eran did because we were masoned and eran considered prplhz to be scummy way before we were actually switching and he openly attacked prplhz in the thread as well. WBG however gets in here once he realizes that he's going to be lynched, checks out who else is a target, realizes VE, eran and mysel were all talking about prplhz, tells people prplhz is 95% sure mafia, without giving an explanation, without ever mentioning him and disappears afterwards.
Got to admit, haven't read the log between VE and WBG yet, so maybe there's something in there. If that's the case the other points still hold true.
Summary:
I really don't like how wbg keeps being non commited. He never had a "real" scumread. Yes he said grush is mafia, but as mentioned that was a horrible 1-quote-case when talking about a new guy. Yes apparently thought Prplhz was mafia but he never said so or explained why.
Everything he did so far is slinging mud at Eran (and the other way around, but Eran DID something else in this game) and giving away some random townreads which have nothing to do with what want to do early on in a game. Townreads are so incredible easy to do for mafia and if everyone started talking about townreads it would be incredible easy for mafia to blend in by just posting some random townreads while mixing in some of their buddies every now and than.
Both VE and Eran have their issues, but all together they're both looking WAY more townish than WBG. They're not scared to be wrong and called people mafia d1 (VE vs eran+prplhz / Eran vs wbg+prplhz) while WBG is completly doding that part of the game for some reason.
He's either scared to be wrong or he can't even find a single thing that might be considered scummy. Both things are incredible mafia traits. First thing because they KNOW they are wrong in the first play, while townies think they're right. Second thing because mafias KNOW their target is not mafia, so they naturally look at thigns with confirmation bias while townies look at things neutraly.
If we have to lynch into vets I'm willing to lynch WBG as I don't think mafia has 2 vets in a 5 vet-game with mafia having 2 KP 4 nights in a row now that we've got a ML on d1.
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On August 08 2012 02:46 VisceraEyes wrote:
Toad can you be convinced to vote for Erandorr? I think that's the only way I live this day.
I intend to make a case on the guy, but your post reads like at least you don't need much convincing.
don't know if that's supposed to be a compliment or an insult 
I'd love to lynch someone who's not a vet today but noone else seems to like that idea due to the amazing mass of lurkers that are all somewhat alike, so getting a specific lynch on one of the not-vets will always feel a little like random lynching right now.
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oh kinda dodged the question: no probably not.
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yeah I didn't really like it.
People have been telling him that VE needs to change his attitude as town in his most recent games a lot. I obviously haven't been in every game with him but those I saw people considered him to be a good policy lynch in he sticks with that attitude. So really, his meta being off is something I'd consider to be a towntrait.
If he were mafia he had all the reasoning there is to just to the same kind of stupid moves he did the last couple of games.
Saying you don't have an opinion is obviously an exaggeration but I would have said the exact same thing lol. You ARE asking questions nonstop and only rarely posting reads inbetween. No I don't count townreads as reads.
If he were mafia he could as well want the GF role instead of the mason. He's usually someone who surives very long as mafia.
The only thing that I consider to be true is that his bugs-mason was weird.
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actually if it's going to be a decision between VE and Erandorr I'm probably going to vote Erandorr.
As I see it it's something like 70:30 or 80:20 in favor for WBG being mafia. If he's town Eran is mafia.
If Eran flips we're either going to get a townflip which results in WBG being mafia.
Or we're going to get a mafiaflip and just dodged a bullet.
Feels like a mislynch on purpose to shove Eran's, green, dead head into all the other peoples faces to make them realize WBG is mafia.
Or of cours the other way around if Eran really flips red and WBG somehow is green besides being the scummiest person in the thread.
If that's what it needs to make the side that's being wrong reaize they're wrong I'm up for that.
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On August 08 2012 03:24 talismania wrote:Show nested quote +On August 08 2012 01:33 VisceraEyes wrote:
Talis we're done in PMs - I've wasted enough time in PMs and now people think I'm scum for it. No longer. How is this a town attitude, toad? Show nested quote +On August 08 2012 01:50 VisceraEyes wrote:
TBH I'm not sure - at first I thought he was town, but as the PMs dragged on it felt more like an inquisition - like his mind was made up already and that he was just like...gathering ammo or something. He never shared HIS thoughts on the people he asked about, simply asked me about them and then freaked out in-thread when I was a little late with response.
I'm leaning town - just misguided, really really WRONG town. He writes this, but do you see it in the logs? He asked me about erandorr, I responded. I asked him about zephirdd after he brought zephirdd's name up... and nothing. If he had asked what I thought about zeph I would have gladly answered. He only showed interest in picking my brain about erandorr. The "people" I asked about? I only asked about one, and he never answered. I asked a grand total of two questions of him in PMs as they "dragged on".
do you think he'd do a shitton of exaggerations like the one you just pointed out and when he said that you never pot reads or do you think it's more likely that he's pissed for some reason?
Maybe he thinks you're mafia and talking with you is pointless. Maybe he is pissed for some reason but I don't really see him doing that as mafia.
I'd say he's more careful than that as mafia.
Last time I lynched into VE was because I considered he was awfully NOT-weird and I didn't think he's able to controle himself like that when being town and therefore concluded he had to be mafia simply because I thought he was forced to controlling himself like that due to his alignment.
The lynch itself failed horribly but I'm still sticking with the reasoning the other way around so far. Of course I don't want to give him a free pass to do whatever he wants but he's VE and VE is ALWAYS weird.
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Could one of the mafias please do one of these "I want to help, so I'm making a votecountpost"-posts ?
Too lazy to check what the votecount is right now 8(
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On August 08 2012 04:21 wherebugsgo wrote:
Yeah dunno why I'm bothering to play right now if the response I get to that post is a fucking vote on me.
You can have fun with the 10 lurkers in this game who are likely to be shielding at least half the scum. Town is fucked.
come on. Your post is basicly:
"I have no idea what's going on.
I had a read on VE early on but I'm back to a null.
Oh and Eran is town.
Oh and Toad is a null.
Xsebit might still be mafia due to the tone of his posts but he hasn't posted ever since, so I'm not sure on that one anymore.
I want to switch the vote but I have no idea who to vote"
Is it possible to be less committed to anything than having that post of yours?
It's like you're already preparing your big "TOLD YA" if Eran or VE are going to flip, no matter what they flip lol.
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On August 08 2012 04:27 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On August 08 2012 04:21 wherebugsgo wrote:
Yeah dunno why I'm bothering to play right now if the response I get to that post is a fucking vote on me.
You can have fun with the 10 lurkers in this game who are likely to be shielding at least half the scum. Town is fucked. come on. Your post is basicly: "I have no idea what's going on. I had a read on VE early on but I'm back to a null. Oh and Eran is town. Oh and Toad is a null. Xsebit might still be mafia due to the tone of his posts but he hasn't posted ever since, so I'm not sure on that one anymore. I want to switch the vote but I have no idea who to vote" Is it possible to be less committed to anything than having that post of yours? It's like you're already preparing your big "TOLD YA" if Eran or VE are going to flip, no matter what they flip lol.
Just to get this clear: If you somehow end up being town, do something.
Make a REAL case on someone or at least explain a scumread of yours. And no I'm not taking something as generic as the grush-case as an explanation if you're targeting newbs again.
You're WBG, you should have no problem at all making at least one case or give an explanation around this time.
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EPT
