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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
On August 10 2012 04:08 JingleHell wrote: And if me and Lazer can agree about someone without screaming at eachother, it might just be a bad sign... <3 | ||
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
On August 10 2012 04:28 talismania wrote: How does this prove that Toad is town? Wouldn't this just mean that his ''source'' is town and you are scum or the other way around? I guess it could mean that both you and the other guy are both town if you are a miller.huh. well at least this more or less proves that you're town unless you're way craftier than I remember. But how does this mean Toad is town? It's very possible that the guy just told Toad to say he got a red check on you in the thread. This way he wouldn't out himself as DT but still let us know that he got a red check. As there really isn't a reason for town not to out this in the thread Toad is more or less forced to do that no matter what alignment he is. | ||
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
On August 10 2012 04:34 Toadesstern wrote: Well I guess the purpose with being a smurf is to avoid people judging you by your meta. Why would someone smurf and then troll the thread to death if he got town? It doesn't make sense. But I guess he could be doing it just to fuck with everyone...Smurfs never tell people who they are... That's the purpose of a smurf. Eventually people figure them out or they screw up big time themselves when posting with their origninal account but smurfs lie about wether or not they are a smurf for obvious reasons. He is 99% a smurf, although I don't agree that he has to be mafia, nor do I think it is likely for him to flip mafia. Though with bugs flipping green the chances increase I guess.. | ||
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
On August 10 2012 04:45 talismania wrote: I don't get this. If Toad is scum and you are town and we lynch you and you flip town, then we know that the guy is scum unless you flip miller. How will Toad look bad for that? Well the way I see it, I am town. If toad were scum, he would know I'm town. There'd be no reason for him to go mum like this in that case. I mean it's like a free mislynch. A bit of an academic point though everything else about toad's play screams town as well. Yhea, I'm also thinking Toad is town. At least atm. | ||
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
On August 10 2012 04:54 Toadesstern wrote: Well it still doesn't make sense that he is BOTH smurfing and playing wierd. I could get it if he was doing one or the other but both at the same time just isn't town at all.or because they're so good at playing that they usually get shot d1 and don't want to get shot. The really good vets do that all the time, either by playing "weird" on purpose or by smurfing. Foolishness for example is someone who preferes not to smurf, proceeds to post in a way that it's really hard to tell wether he's town or mafia, so he won't get shot as town and dishes out a list on d3 that is pretty much 100% correct. He's not trolling but he's making himself a bad target for mafia to shoot that way. People like Palmar, Kita, Greymist and Sandroba (I think he's either kita or Greymist) like to smurf although it comes down to the same thing. Greymist and Kita are two guys who love "roleplaying" so that's why I'm mentioned those two. | ||
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
On August 10 2012 05:02 Lazermonkey wrote: Actually, if Dropula is the DT everything would suddenly make sense once again... However If your guy is someone else then it's another thing.Well it still doesn't make sense that he is BOTH smurfing and playing wierd. I could get it if he was doing one or the other but both at the same time just isn't town at all. | ||
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
On August 10 2012 07:06 Hopeless1der wrote: IMO Toad should absolutely not out the guy. If we do, even if we lynch talis and he flips scum, our DT will die. Maybe he could give out the logs but without name? If Toad really feel that the person to claim DT is scum, then he should consider outing him and lynching him instead. So now what, you hold the logs until tomorrow, or give them out so we can make our reads on the claim and let the scum WIFOM the shot vs the medic(s)? The one advantage we have with outing the guy(other than knowing who we are trusting...)is that we will have a confirmed DT if Tallis flips You could argue that he is a good medic target but we don't even know if we have a medic which makes it risky. Also scum could just perma RB the guy if they want too as well, assuming Tallis isn't the scum RB. | ||
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
On August 10 2012 07:40 Toadesstern wrote: Why should we ignore it? We are 99,9% guranteed to get a mafia, either this day or the next. The only scenario we don't get a mafia is if Tallis is miller but that is highly unlikely. I still can't tell if the guy is mafia or if it's talis. I found his breadcrumb all right. I see what he was doing now and it's all fine but mafia could set that kind of stuff up as well. Again, I posted it in an instant without thinking about it. Should not have posted it and I'm going to ignore it now that I can't make out which of the two guys is the mafia and who's faking. I hope the rest of you does the same and just proceeds as if I never said a thing. kk thx bye :3 I'm going to bed now. But before that. ##Vote: talismania | ||
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
1) He is miller. 2) He is scum but wants to act as miller as it's the only way he might survive. Out of these two 2 is much more likely than 1. So unless you had a very convincing town read to start with, you should vote him. | ||
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
On August 11 2012 00:08 Toadesstern wrote: Well xsebt is confirmed DT anyway. There is no fucking way that he guessed both your and Talismanias name unless all three of you are scum. Or if he hacked BC account... But that is modkill material as well I guess : D. well but BC is most likely not going to confirm a thing. Right now what we have is a public claim. Believe it or not but the moment BC comes in this thread and confirms it that's a modconfirmed red DT check on someone. He can't do that so again, take from it what you want. I can't prove a thing but you wanted me to tell you anyways. BC is most likely going to act with the next night-post or maybe even not before postgame, who knows. We're best to assume there's not going to be a word from BC about this. I do by no means think that Xsebt did the right thing but ignoring it would be silly as well. Like really silly. We must lynch Talis today. The only reason for someone not to vote him is if you actually got a solid town read on him. If you are even the slightest unsure of his alignment or even think he is suspicious you SHOULD vote him. NAO! The only way we don't get a scum today is if Talis would flip miller and that is quite unlikely. Also, Talis posting and begging for not getting lynched since the DT claim means nothing, like I've already said. It's not like scum would be like ''Ow, GG guys you got me''. He is obviously trying to look like a miller no matter what alignment he is. | ||
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
I am not going to analyse Talismanias behavior before the red claim as that has already been done. SlOosh had concerns with the very little actual scum hunting Talis did and VE also posted a semi big case on him a while back. I recomend you guys to read these things again. I also belive there was one more case on Talismania, although I don't remember who posted it. These are both points and I've been somewhat suspicious of him for a while. However, he wasn't my highest scum read untill the read check. While you could argue that it is good or not good to be lynching someone just because of a redcheck( Hi Jingle, I know you love me and I love you! : DDD)Talis play have been suspicious. I'm going to analyse some of his play after the DT claim. If one were in Talis postition and knew you were miller what would you do? Probebly say that you were miller which Talis is doing but also post all of your reads and the reasoning for them. Because even if you get lynched which is quite likely everyone will at least know that they can trust your reads to 100%. Talis have spend alot of time saying that he is miller, why he should be godfather if he was scum etc and very little if any time to dicuss his reads. He says that Toad is probebly town but who does he think is scum? On August 10 2012 10:03 talismania wrote: So he posts his lists of scum. No explaination, no reason just the 5 he thinks are scum. And look! He is posting VE who was under the heaviest pressure at that moment, however he had posted a long case on him earlier so no real contribution here- Not a very bold claim.Bottom line: xsebt - DT talismania - miller toad - town mason jinglehell - town mason VE - scum mason hassybaby - scum mason (?) BKE - scum goon Count Dropula - scum godfather (Sinensis smurf - has to be someone who played with zeph in NMM II) hier - scum goon I think I know who the vig is as well but I won't say. __________ I say we lynch VE and have xsebt check BKE. If neither comes up red, lynch me tomorrow. On August 10 2012 10:41 talismania wrote: Look how flip floppy his accusations are! He is asking for everyone else's opinion and he seems very unsure of his accusations. Why would he be that? He just called Heir scum just moments ago. WIFOM obviously, but I guess this could be a way for him to try avoid getting voted by Heir at the same time trying to apear scum hunting.Does this smell incredibly off to anyone else? Like I can't logically put my finger on it but my brain is screaming at me that this is a scumslip or something. Like, if he's saying that xsebt is going to flip town DT, then why does he state after that that I assume I'm a miller? What else do I assume in that case? Like, is he trying to say that I am incorrectly assuming that I'm a miller, and therefore that xsebt is scum? That's the only logical way to interpret those two sentences but I'm fairly sure that's not what he was getting at. On August 10 2012 10:54 talismania wrote: Long post, but what does he really say here? He already posted the scum reads(I know he says that as well...) and the rest of the post is like no contribution at all. Medic protects DT should goes without saying.Look if you guys feel you have to lynch me, then fine. You'll have one mislynch to give before you're at LYLO. That said I will keep fighting until the end because I honor my wincon. Here's the list of roles in the game, for those who missed it earlier: xsebt - DT talismania - miller toad - town mason jinglehell - town mason VisceraEyes - scum mason hassybaby - scum mason BroodKingEXE - scum goon CountDropula - scum godfather Hier - scum goon If you follow that list, you will win. (Hopefully if I'm wrong I'm not TOO wrong). Toad, they'll probably keep you alive because of how wrong you've been and likely will continue to be. If I can't convince you today then I hope you can swallow your pride and start fresh after I die. Medics, protect xsebt. Xsebt, check BKE first, then hier, then synystyr, then glasse. Marvellosity, Jingle, maybe lazermonkey. You guys will have to be town leaders after I'm dead. Marv I know you're not invested in this game since you weren't in it at the beginning but please try to win it for us. On August 10 2012 11:08 talismania wrote: Eh you're the one I'm least sure about definitely. It's between you glasse and synystyr. Synystyr is up there with you since he continuously fails his activity standards and hasn't contributed much to the game. I'll rethink things after a break so that I can settle down and give my final reads out for people to follow once I'm dead and flipped. On August 10 2012 11:10 talismania wrote: @Hier Oh and for why I picked you over the other two - your filter has nothing substantial in it. You have taken no initiative. You also show signs of being an active lurker. You delurk rather quickly when your name comes up but otherwise stay silent. You are attentive to the events of the game without trying to become entangled in them yourself. Only answers when called out by Heir. Also note that he is very unsure of his read on Heir. On August 10 2012 13:23 talismania wrote: Long post on why he must be miller.Why I'm town: (1) Why am I a goon? Mafia got to pick their own roles. Look at the players left in this game. Imagine that I am scum. What other three players in this game, on my scum team, would end up with mason (assuming there are two scum masons) and godfather? Toad? VE? Toad obviously isn't scum with me. Neither is VE. Hassy? The only thing Hassy has done is point out suspicious things I've done. So what - GF goes to a lurky new guy over me? I love the mason role. I don't know for sure if I would have taken it as scum because it is kind of fraught with peril but I for sure would have taken GF over goon and who else in this game could claim as much? Why, if I'm a goon, do behave like this? So actively, playing exactly to my town meta. Why do I even talk about setup shit if I'm a goon lol. As GF, sure. But goon? No way. (2) Who the hell are my scumbuddies? No scum have died yet. Let's look at the remaining players. I'll do this off the top of my head: VE - wants me lynched. I want him lynched. toad - very publicly vacillated on me. Can't be my scumbuddy or he doesn't bring up this whole stink. zephirdd - called me scum D1. Called me scum N2 (with VE for some reason). Hassybaby - only thing he's talked about is my setup talk and cast suspicion thereon. And I've been very public about not minding him getting lynched either. xsebt - obviously not my scumbuddy count dropula - wants me dead. Voted me D1 before changing, has promoted me to scum-marionette. synystyr - wants me lynched. lazer - no problem voting for me today. Ok that's all I remember off the top of my head let's look at the remaining filters hopeless1der - voted me day 1 hier - has called me scum, wanted to lynch me or erandorr D2 BKE - no real stance on me, but I want him checked by the DT and lynched. jinglehell - used to think I was town glasse - no real stance on me that I see. marv - said I was town. Clearly from this the only conclusion is that my whole scum strategy is to bus all my teammates and get bussed by them. I've done that before, or tried to, in I can't believe it's not themed mini (filter here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351147&user=32774 ). Compare the activity in those two filters. What happened when I was under duress? I gave up and waited to be lynched. Is that what I'm doing now? This leads us to the next point: (3) My Meta I like playing town. I dislike playing scum. When I'm town I'm active, when I'm scum I'm inactive. The only scum game I've tried in was Pick Your Poison and I know I'm playing way more actively and aggressively than I ever did in that game (filter here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=340727&user=32774 ). Other mafia game filters: BangBang2: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=340480&user=32774. Compare those to SSB64: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=348072&user=32774 and Bastard 2: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=343892&user=32774 Especially read SSB64. I was town and was mislynched. Toad you should know this better than anyone. Did I give up? Did I ever stop trying? No. I knew I was the only townie who had the game figured out at that point, and I knew it was my job to convince the other townies. They stubbornly refused to listen and I ended up getting lynched, shot, and we lost the game. Of course I was culpable to some degree. How did I get in trouble that game? Toad you know the answer - I speculated (correctly, by the way) about the nature of the setup. Contrast that with I Can't Believe It's Not Themed where I gave up as fast as I could as mafia getting lynched (Mattchew and Dropbear were my scumbuddies for those reading the filter). (4) N2 Night kills Why do I, as scum, kill solstice and strongandbig? Both of them were on the same page as I when it came to VE. If I'm scum, then clearly a major part of my plan is to get VE lynched. Why do I make that intentionally harder on myself? I don't. I kill toad in that situation, 100% of the time. I also kill the person whom I believe is the vigilante. Scum picked those two because it suited their purposes (reduced focus on VE) plus they thought it would be funny if they kept picking the targets that I said should be defended. As far as N1 goes, I agree and would have double-stacked sloosh, assuming that's what happened and gambled on there only being one medic or one of them deciding not to protect him. (5) Why the hell do I do this? Why am I convinced Xsebt is town DT, instead of scum? Why aren't I arguing against him? Why, instead, did I go out of my way to get toad to post exactly what was in those PMs, because I knew that if it said "Henry Francais" instead of "Henry Francis" then he had to be a DT as only I and BC were privy to that spelling in my PM. I was asking for this very early on today: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=352668¤tpage=62#1229 _________________ At the end of the day, what is more likely?: --That I'm a crazy scum who chose goon over godfather, set out to bus all my teammates or be bussed by them, stated who I would be killing every night just for the shits and even risked directing medic protection at who I picked, and have managed to play to my town meta better than I've ever done in my life. (Seriously people just count the number of pages in the filters). --That I'm a townie miller. Point 1 is purely based on WIFOM and is thus disregarded. Point 2 is such bad logic from his side (assuming that he is miller...). For example you say that people who was suspicious or voted you on D1 or D2 can't be your scum mates. LOL. You weren't close to getting lynched neither D1 nor D2 so why bring that up? Also I don't really see any telling with people wanting to lynch you right know. If there is any time you would want to bus, wouldn't that be when you got a red check? Point 3 is WIFOM once again. Point 4 is WIFOM. Point 5 is bad logic once again. It's not like you were the only reason for Toad to out Xsebt. Also arguing against someone who had ''guessed'' the name of Toads character correctly wouldn't look very good neither. On August 10 2012 13:33 talismania wrote: Ya, we can count, even when you are lynched.Ok I messed up earlier when I said there were 17 people alive. Apparently there's only 16 unless I've miscounted again: 1. Hassybaby 2. mrzentor 3. Toadesstern 4. visceraeyes 5. BroodKingEXE 6. talismania 7. lazermonkey 8. Hopeless1der 9. jinglehell 10. zephirdd 11. XsebT 12. Hier 13. Glasse 14. CountDropula 15. Marv 16. Synystyr So right now it's 11 - 5 Assuming I'm mislynched, that puts us at 10 - 5, then 2 night kills, 8 - 5. That's essentially lylo. Mislynch and you have to pray for a medic save. That means every day a scum has to be lynched. Upshot: lynch me, likely lose the game. Do what I say, have a fighting chance. Fellow townies, please take this seriously. Ask me as many questions as you need to. Please take the time to check my meta. Please read my posts thoroughly. I will be as succinct and direct as possible. On August 11 2012 01:59 talismania wrote: What you say in this whole post is basically ''if you lynch me and I am a miller you are in big trouble''. We know that. But that isn't important. What is important is if you are a miller or not, not how bad position we will be left in if you were a miller.Let's talk about this game. Scum: you guys know how good of a position you're in. You can win without losing a member. Town: I don't think it's really set in for most of you how terrible of a position you're in. Let me explain it again. Right now there are 11 town and 5 scum. Here's what will probably happen: I'm lynched, jingle and marv are killed at night, toad is still completely wrong the next day and zephirdd gets lynched, GG flawless scum victory. The only real chance is if when I actually do flip miller toad (assuming he's town) actually realizes that he's just been completely wrong about everything in this game and genuinely re-evaluates the situation and sees that VE is the most obviously scummy person in this game. Sidenote: if this doesn't happen people need to look at toad more carefully because I can't imagine him being wrong for that long is weird even for his standards. Alternate scenarios: (1) I'm lynched and flip miller, jingle and marv are killed. 8 - 5, lylo. VE or BKE is finally lynched, lazer and toad killed. 6 - 4, lylo. The other of VE or BKE is lynched. 2 other townies killed. 4 - 3, lylo. Count Dropula or Hier gets lynched (depending on what xsebt says), then it will be 3 - 2 the next day. Then 2 - 1. So to say it again, If I am lynched, town will be at lylo from now until they lose or lynch all five scum in a row* *Of course, this is barring medic protects. However, the medics should be on xsebt. Scum may attempt to double stack on xsebt, gambling that there's only one medic too, which might reduce the NK. And of course, if there's still vig shots out there then that can accelerate or decelerate the game. (2) I'm lynched and flip scum. VE and synystyr NK'd I guess? 9 - 4. Not a terrible position but not great either. One mislynch (say, zephirdd) puts it at 6 - 4 and right back to lylo. Also it won't happen because I'm not scum. (3) VE or hassy gets lynched today and flips scum. 9 - 4 but people actually realize that I was right. I'll probably be NK'd but that's a tricky play for scum given that I do have a red check. If they leave me alive I'll be able to lead at least one other scum lynch, putting town in the advantage. This is the best case scenario. Too bad I don't think you'll be convinced. On August 11 2012 02:27 talismania wrote: Once again, only when called out does he give out his reads. But now he at least gives out a few town reads, although all of them seems very vauge. He does at least explain that he thinks Dropula is GF.I'm fairly certain VE is scum. I think Dropula is the godfather as well. I know - a bit connectiony. Zephirdd just doesn't fit with any model of scum play this game. We both played with him when he was traitor in Pick Your Power and I seem to recall a safer style of posting then, not as loose. In Pick Your Poison I was scum and he was town and I found him incredibly scummy and spent the whole game more or less plotting to get him mislynched. He just does things that people consider obvious scumtells as town. I think he's done that here. I mean, scum aren't playing that great this game. They haven't built any good cases or actually convinced people. They instead pick up on the stupidest little things, like my discussion of setup, or zephirdd's list of people that hadn't posted in D1 and base their false suspicions on those. Marv, assuming you're town, which I lean on you and BioSc but can't really prove, you should really dig into this game during the night phase. Read through it like you're scum, since you're quite good at scum, and discern the scum lynch pushes and plans. I think you will come to the same conclusion that I have, which is that VE is scum mason, and that count dropula's play is explained perfectly if he's a sinensis smurf (dropula attacks zephirdd based on zeph's meta in Normal Mini Mafia 2, claiming that he went and read zeph's past games. No one ever reads past games, especially not "new" players which is what dropula claims he is. Dropula is acting weird as fuck because he wants to draw DT checks because he's GF). He also recently posts a case on VE. We know he is suspicious of VE. And TBH, I had VE as my highest scum read before the red check on Talis. VE should get lynched if you flip miller Talis, although not very likely. Talis has spend shit loads of time after he got red checked to speak about setup, about blues and other stuff we don't really need to hear right now. The thing he should prioritize the most, reads, have only been done when he is called out for it, except for VE but he was already massivly suspicious of VE before so no chocker here. TLDR; KILL TALISMANIA! KILL IT WITH FIRE! | ||
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
Point 2. How does this show anything but that your logic in case you were miller would be super bad? Point 3. How can you not control your own play? It's entirely possible that you would try to play away from your scum meta if you rolled scum in order to be considered less scummy. Point 4. Well people are obviously killed for a reason but there are several reasons for someone to get killed. Also, you say that you wouldn't kill these people if you are scum then you have 4 scum buddies with personal opinions as well. Yes there is always a reason. That's why you should concentrate on making reads rather than make WIFOMish reasons for why you are miller. | ||
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
On August 11 2012 06:05 JingleHell wrote: Well either both me and Dropula is scum or bot of us is town. I don't know what the fuck is going on here, but I think one of our DTs is a liar, and possibly using some scum info to pass it off. I mean, right now the role list sounds more like Conspiracy Theory mafia. I know it's nuts to WIFOM the host, but what the hell. Either we believe this setup is absurd as hell, or we see how today's lynch goes and start looking at cases. I usually don't trust anyone, but starting now, I go into paranoia mode. | ||
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
On August 11 2012 06:13 talismania wrote: Let's lynch Zeph and get two confirmed townies in the process then?above directed at marv. I'm miller for sure. If zeph is scum (which I doubt) then dropula is town which makes no sense. I think dropula and lazer just outed themselves. | ||
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
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Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
##Unvote ##Vote: Zephirdd | ||
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