Newbie Mini Mafia XXI - Page 6

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

July 22 2012 16:24 GMT

#1032

On July 23 2012 01:09 calgar wrote:

Maybe you're right. The point that convinced me the most was that he seemed like a better player last game - let me know what you think about that.

Playing better or worse isn't a scumtell as far as I'm concerned. In fact, playing worse could be viewed as reckless "townie" play.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

July 22 2012 18:22 GMT

#1036

On July 23 2012 03:17 Fulla wrote:
I've tried building a case but it just gets ignored.

If someone would point out why I am wrong or they disagree I could rethink.

Whoops sorry for missing this, I'll get to your case later tonight

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

July 22 2012 18:32 GMT

#1038

Oh I assume you mean the case below?
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398&currentpage=50#997

I completely agree about Tube, and and I posted my suspicions on him here:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398&currentpage=50#981
He really hasn't attempted to defend himself so far, and his only response to my accusation was a one-liner scarcastic post.

As for Hopeless, I don't think he's mafia. He's been posting some good analysis today, and him defending Tube against the entire town can be seen as a townie-trait. If Tube flips mafia, I'll have to look very carefully at Hopeless's filter, but other than that, I have no basis to suspect him of anything.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

July 23 2012 04:27 GMT

#1051

@ YourHarry - great catch on the Tube "read" on drwiggl3s. There's absolutely no reason why he should turn around and bandwagon Obvious after wiggl3s being his only read. Great case all around.

Since I haven't done this already for some reason:

##Vote Tube

It is important that we don't use the heavy suspicion on Tube to completely stop our discussion. First half of D3 was pretty quiet by all of our standards (myself included), and we should be maintaining our discussions for the next 24 hours. Remember, even if Tube flips red, there's still a 2nd mafia out there we need to find.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

July 23 2012 21:04 GMT

#1067

On July 24 2012 03:47 iamperfection wrote:

Show nested quote +

Are you going to vote?

Mafia dying w/out giving any reads. Pretty standard.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

July 24 2012 00:54 GMT

#1077

Wellllllll shit.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

July 24 2012 21:24 GMT

#1092

FOS Calgar

I had Calgar as a very pro-town read earlier in the game (and came to his defense on D2), but I’ve found some of his actions over the past few days very suspicious.

Calgar’s Response to drwiggl3s’ Scumslip

After JingleHell posts his case against drwiggl3s and votes him, Calgar posts this:

On July 21 2012 04:38 calgar wrote:
I'll agree with you that drwiggles is a good lynch right now. Is he better than harry though? I'm planning to move my vote away from iamperfection - I may have come up with a solution to him, I'll post more on that in a little. Harry under fire has given us good reads on how several people have reacted.

He keeps his options open, while maintaining his suspicions against YourHarry. He only votes drwiggl3s after three more townies INSTANTLY vote drwiggl3s after reading his exchange with Jingle. By then, drwiggl3s is firmly in the vote lead.

Given how sudden the counter-bandwagon was on drwiggl3s (since YourHarry was basically set to mislynch D2), this is consistent with a mafia in disarray and not sure what to do after the drwiggl3s scumslip.

After drwiggl3s flips red, Calgar posts an analysis of drwiggl3s filter – a “summary post.”
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398&currentpage=48#960

Calgar “tunneling” suspicion on multiple players

Calgar has been fingerpointing several players throughout the game. Early in the game, he posts suspicion against three players:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398&currentpage=31#610

Then immediately after the drwiggl3s lynch, Calgar posts:

On July 22 2012 08:23 calgar wrote:
Alright townies, I’ll call it like I see it.

Sorry to see you go jingle, we'll bag the rest for ya.

@confirmed townies – I consider everyone besides iamperfection, tube, fulla, and speed to be more or less ‘confirmed’ as town. This is in varying degrees, of course, considering the fact that we're going on guesses based on our reasoning. I feel reasonably confident that there is enough info to make solid assumptions here in most of the cases.

@direction – It’s difficult to say where to go now because the remaining players are a mix of inactivity and suspicious activity which is helping the mafia hide. I think all four of them have been generally inactive, some moreso than others. I assessed what tiny bit of mufaa’s old filter was there and the vague feel I got based off of it was town. Going off of what little that is, I’m inclined to put him/speedbump on hold and go towards the other three for now.

IGMEOY iamperfection, tube, fulla

I'll kick things off with this vote since it seems to be where hopeless and hapa are leaning towards also.
##Vote iamperfection

He then posts what I consider a really bad meta case against iamperfection.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398&currentpage=52#1022

After my response…
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398&currentpage=52#1029

…he puts more suspicion on iamperfection:

On July 23 2012 01:09 calgar wrote:

Show nested quote +

Maybe you're right. The point that convinced me the most was that he seemed like a better player last game - let me know what you think about that.

After which he gives up his case without a word and votes Tube, right after iamperfection votes for Tube:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398&currentpage=53#1045

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

July 24 2012 21:34 GMT

#1093

Regarding the suspicion Hopeless1der, I give him a lot of town credit based on how different his play has been from his Mafia D1 play in Mafia XX. Furthermore, I believe that Calgar's case against him misreads the intent of his posts.

There's a huge difference between trying to make oneself less suspicious and drawing attention to one's potentially suspicious actions. Hopeless does the latter in the posts mentioned in Calgar's case:

On July 18 2012 07:40 Hopeless1der wrote:
So, am I going to get chewed out for not changing my vote? If I do, its a last minute bandwagon, and if I don't its because I Obviously (teehee) "knew" he was town.
Unless someone unvotes Obvious.660, there is no way to alter the vote at this point because he got to 6 votes first.

Points suspicion to his own vote - why would he do that as Mafia?

On July 18 2012 07:51 Hopeless1der wrote:
If he flips scum, I still look bad because I've said he looked scummy, but didn't put my vote on him. I made that post to demonstrate the fact that I think I'm screwed no matter what I do at this point.

Points suspicion to himself again...

On July 18 2012 07:58 Hopeless1der wrote:
I'm preemptively pointing out the fact that I'm going to look scummy regardless of what I do, before someone can turn it into a case and run with it. Perhaps I should have just stayed quiet, but I've already said I'd be around at the deadline and I can see this turning out poorly for me. I'm trying to make my situation as transparent as possible to prevent people from considering I'm scum because of my voting pattern.

Again, pointing suspicion at himself. He doesn't make excuses for his actions at all.

Hopeless has already commented on the quote about him "positioning" after the Tube lynch, and I think he gives a satisfactory explanation - Calgar reads into his post the wrong way

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

July 24 2012 23:06 GMT

#1095

Forgotten again D=

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

July 25 2012 00:44 GMT

#1105

RIP Fulla

For everyone else, I'd appreciate any comments on my FOS on Calgar
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398&currentpage=55#1092

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

July 25 2012 00:48 GMT

#1106

Also, since we can assume we don't have a medic (with Jingle dying N2), we're in a MYLO situation no?

I figure our 3rd blue is a 2nd Vet, detective, or a vigi. Since we're in MYLO and there's likely only one blue role left it seems like a good time to roleclaim. Thoughts?

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

July 25 2012 02:56 GMT

#1111

On July 25 2012 11:23 YourHarry wrote:
Dude, guys. This is MYLO. We should NOT vote. You can FOS, but voting could allow scums to bandwagon and end the game immediately.

I don't mind votes if they lead to discussion. Remember, votes are easily changeable, especially with just under 48 hours left until the lynch deadline. What are your thoughts on the suspicions brought forth so far? (Hopeless1der and Calgar)

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

July 25 2012 03:36 GMT

#1114

On July 25 2012 12:15 YourHarry wrote:
Hapha, are you vanilla?

Vanilla Townie (Senior?) indeed - thought I didn't need to make it clear, since I'd have roleclaimed already if I was blue.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

July 25 2012 04:13 GMT

#1116

On July 25 2012 13:01 YourHarry wrote:

Show nested quote +

Yea, that's what I assumed but just to make it clear.

I don't know... I suck

Someone help LOL.

Well sitting around asking for help isn't going to get Mafia to reveal themselves to us. Dig through some filters and try to find something. Or atleast comment on one of the existing cases.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

July 25 2012 13:40 GMT

#1127

##Vote NoLynch

On July 25 2012 18:01 YourHarry wrote:
Wait, never mind. Calgar could still be the scum, but town calgar means either hopeless1 or iamperfection (or both) MUST be scums. This is because, if both hopeless1 and iamperfection are town voting for calgar, the scums would have already mislynched calgar.

I don't follow - please explain?

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

July 25 2012 13:46 GMT

#1128

On July 25 2012 17:59 YourHarry wrote:
FOS Speedbump and Calgar for being inactive and possibly lurking. Come share your thoughts with us.

Thanks Hopeless and iamperfection for posting your reads. Please continue to chime in as well as join me in voting for no lynch.

Hapha, what do you think about other people's case on calgar?

Dood - I made the case on calgar =/
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398&currentpage=55#1092

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

July 25 2012 15:26 GMT

#1131

On July 25 2012 16:48 YourHarry wrote:
--SNIP--

Hapha, when Jingle started accusing drwiggles, what made you so obviously sure that drwiggles was scum? And you felt so adamant about everyone taking their votes from me. You were so sure?

Whoops missed this on my first readthrough:

Drwiggl3s scumslip + Jingle's Case (Click) were pretty convincing justification to lynch wiggl3s. I mean that scumslip was really really bad. As for being adamant about getting votes off of you, drwiggl3s "trap" (being so sure that you were going to flip green) strongly suggested that you were townie.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

July 26 2012 01:55 GMT

#1139

On July 26 2012 09:55 Speedbump wrote:
Bolded the logical flaw I see in your post. It's much easier to make assumptions about how replacements play, instead of actually playing the game. To answer your flawed analysis there; unless the player pre-replacement plays exceptionally poorly, I don't think that the replacement has any onus of burden to defend himself overzealously, like you're implying. In fact, overzealous play causes more problems for town, with potential mislynches.

But then, when one is reckless and grasping at straws the whole game, it would be easier to make more brash and reckless assumptions to mislynch and win. Have you got anything substantial to go on, or is this all purely WIFOM?

FoS calgar

Calgar's suspicions are pretty reasonable, and its inexcusable for a player to not post for 48 hours when the town's at MYLO. You claim your internet cut out, but you were pretty quick to defend yourself when people started calling you out.

You also spend more time decrying Calgar's "flawed analysis" than actually analyzing his case. Hell, I haven't seen you analyze well... anything since you joined.

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

July 26 2012 01:56 GMT

#1140

FOS Speedbump

Hapahauli

United States9305 Posts

July 26 2012 03:57 GMT

#1145

On July 26 2012 11:57 Speedbump wrote:

Show nested quote +

On July 26 2012 11:20 calgar wrote:
Nice of you to rejoin the thread. How convenient that your internet comes up in time to address the case against you.

So, no fulla case then huh. You said it would come in 2-3 hours. Then the next day you say it’s not there but still coming that night. Then you come back after 2 days. You could have posted from your phone. So that makes no case still. You’re on your phone, you woke up late, your internet went down while making your case. That’s convenient. NK happens to be on the guy you promised your case on, also convenient. Convenient that you can still be unaccountable. Sounds like you’ve got lots of excuses but haven’t managed to push any original analysis.

You sheep FOS onto iamperfection, sheep vote onto tube, and sheep FOS onto me. Baaah. Where are your thoughts? Where are your cases? How have you contributed to town at all, even once? The mafia targeting is partially WIFOM. The simplest shot would still have been to shoot YourHarry or you. Why didn’t they take the simplest?

Bolded the flaw? Lol you bolded the entire thing. I’m suspicious of you because you are acting suspicious. Where is the ‘flaw’ in that reasoning? Maybe you should bold this entire response too.

On July 26 2012 09:55 Speedbump wrote:
To answer your flawed analysis there; unless the player pre-replacement plays exceptionally poorly, I don't think that the replacement has any onus of burden to defend himself overzealously, like you're implying. In fact, overzealous play causes more problems for town, with potential mislynches.

Hmm. I guess I could just stop posting and try to help the town like you have. No onus? Did you conveniently forget the part where you disappeared for 48 hours? That means you do in fact have a burden, especially this late in the game. Honestly, what is town supposed to expect when you stop playing for that long? Why did you agree to replace if you were going to post that little? I have one explanation.

On July 26 2012 09:55 Speedbump wrote:
But then, when one is reckless and grasping at straws the whole game, it would be easier to make more brash and reckless assumptions to mislynch and win. Have you got anything substantial to go on, or is this all purely WIFOM?
FoS calgar

Have you got any contributions to make to town or are you going to purely sheep the rest of the game?

@Hapahauli and calgar: So what you're claiming is that I would somehow lie about internet connections being disconnected, and then conspicuously re-appear when I defend myself? Would you say the same thing if I re-appeared and I wasn't in the situation of defending myself? I find it odd that people tend to misconstrue things that happen with unfortunate timings with less trepidation than is due.

Matter of fact is, my net cut out for two days. This was both my mobile internet and the wifi at the backpackers I was staying at during the time. There was literally nothing I can do about that. If you want to overlook hunting for mafia to rail at me for not having an internet connection at the time, then town will lose.

Even if we ignore your 48 hour break, you still haven't done anything resembling analysis. Furthermore, this is the second time you're bandwagonning on the suspicion du jour - first Tube and now Calgar.

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