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On July 21 2012 07:51 NoSmurfHere wrote:Show nested quote +On July 21 2012 07:43 Risen wrote:
I do disagree with wbg that I would have been an easy mislynch tomorrow. Maybe the day after, or the day after that, but there's no way I was getting lynched tomorrow. Scib would have claimed mason, I would have been dead or rb'd, which I would claim, and then we would have lynched Dropbear since he's the ONLY one not on mattchew and not "confirmed" town. Dropbear could counterclaim but then there's the breadcrumbs and even with a scib lynch dropbear still dies the next day. anyone would've been an easy mislynch given a scum who knew what he was doing. I've done it myself in similar situations. If you don't believe me, read Mini X. I rolled scum in that game and I won 7v1 after my only scumbuddy died d1. It wasn't an identical situation given that DB had to deal with some confirmed townies, but he also had the advantage of having a scumbuddy that could've lived the previous day. You + Gonzaw + keirathi + milton could've all made mislynches at some point or another. The order in which it would've happened is of little significance (although I agree that it would be optimal for the remaining scum to kill you later rather than sooner). Also DB had assigned sciberbia for the kill, so the confirmed mason would've died. You would've had no fallback.
I'm confused as to how he could have possibly, POSSIBLY convinced ANYONE to not lynch him. Scib flips and is confirmed green, sab is confirmed green when I stop screwing around and declare that I'm actually cop during the last hour before day and when day comes I confirm that I'm roleblocked. Who would ANYONE lynch in that situation, the only non-"confirmed" person left in the game aka Dropbear. If Dropbear flips green and I don't die another night THEN I get lynched. You don't lynch the people who killed mattchew and made it possible.
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On July 21 2012 07:57 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On July 21 2012 07:54 Risen wrote:
Whew rereading my filter I'm shocked I wasn't pushed by scum for misusing words. Bus alone wasn't going to get me lynched, but the claim and bus in combination would have gotten me lynched npnp had mattchew not tunneled gonzaw so hard. There were people (townies) in thread who really, REALLY wanted to lynch me (I don't blame them) and still matt stuck to gonzaw for reasons I'm unsure of. I really, REALLY wanted to lynch you, but I talked myself out of pushing it because I wasn't sure if it was just OMGUS, or if I actually thought all of your silly little slips/logic leaps added up to enough to make you scum, or just playing badly. Which is ironically the same thing that halted me voting talis on d2, and I was wrong about him :o
An OMGUS case against me would have gotten me lynched ezpz. I have no idea why matt didn't lynch me. Sure I'm a claimed cop and I "shouldn't" be lynched, but he knows as well as I do that what town "should" do and what it does almost never coincide. Hell, when we were scum VE got lynched day 1 with a "doctor" claim.
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On top of this, when I come back and say you should never lynch the claimed cop matt can easily retort with "WRONG. You lynch scum no matter what." And I would have been like damn... this claim was a bad idea and I should feel bad.
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I think the real turning point this game was tali getting lynched. Tali doesn't get lynched I think mafia has better odds winning the game. With tali lynched it's still decent odds. With me not getting lynched after what I did the game I think swung into our favor. Throw this on top of our lucky lynch of mattchew? Wowza.
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On July 21 2012 08:02 NoSmurfHere wrote:I approach learning mafia the same way I learn almost anything else. If you're not aware of your mistakes then you will be doomed to repeat them. In fact, sometimes even being aware of your mistakes, you repeat them subconsciously anyway (I had this conversation with marvellosity a little while ago; both of us were talking about how we learned something and then made the same mistake again later lol) Anyway it's kinda like learning how to play an RTS game online for the first time. The sooner you realize that you have a lot to improve, the sooner you can begin to improve. Even the best players make mistakes and it's in their interest to realize these mistakes so that they can become better. No one is perfect by any means.
I don't agree you're being too critical. I do think you're just plain wrong that after the mattchew lynch with a scib kill mafia has any hope of winning. He needed to roleblock me and kill someone who was on matt aka s0Lstice to have any chance of winning.
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On July 21 2012 08:06 gonzaw wrote:Show nested quote +On July 21 2012 07:54 Risen wrote:
Whew rereading my filter I'm shocked I wasn't pushed by scum for misusing words. Bus alone wasn't going to get me lynched, but the claim and bus in combination would have gotten me lynched npnp had mattchew not tunneled gonzaw so hard. There were people (townies) in thread who really, REALLY wanted to lynch me (I don't blame them) and still matt stuck to gonzaw for reasons I'm unsure of. I stand by what I said that you seemed townie and those "bus" instead of "wagon" and your cop claim could have been brushed off as "bad play". Maybe it was me but if people had read your filter this game, and took into account other games where you were scum they would have figured out you were town, or at least not be that sure to kill you and give you another chance. I mean, even it townies make "bad plays" it's not "oh if the scum team is competent they'll get misslynched 100%". If other townies can get good reads then even if the scum team is "competent" they can't just make a townie change their read if he finds it accurate. That's why I was kind of shocked I was being pushed so much (my "bad plays"=/="scum"), and Risen and Keirathi too (Keirathi for his outburst against Risen and his self-vote).
This brings to mind another possibility. I mean shit, matt could have pushed a lynch on me EASY. Then Keir is the next to go no questions asked in my mind. I just can't wrap my head around why matt buddied me. All it did was make me think he was scum.
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On July 21 2012 08:09 NoSmurfHere wrote:Show nested quote +On July 21 2012 08:08 Risen wrote:On July 21 2012 08:06 gonzaw wrote:On July 21 2012 07:54 Risen wrote:
Whew rereading my filter I'm shocked I wasn't pushed by scum for misusing words. Bus alone wasn't going to get me lynched, but the claim and bus in combination would have gotten me lynched npnp had mattchew not tunneled gonzaw so hard. There were people (townies) in thread who really, REALLY wanted to lynch me (I don't blame them) and still matt stuck to gonzaw for reasons I'm unsure of. I stand by what I said that you seemed townie and those "bus" instead of "wagon" and your cop claim could have been brushed off as "bad play". Maybe it was me but if people had read your filter this game, and took into account other games where you were scum they would have figured out you were town, or at least not be that sure to kill you and give you another chance. I mean, even it townies make "bad plays" it's not "oh if the scum team is competent they'll get misslynched 100%". If other townies can get good reads then even if the scum team is "competent" they can't just make a townie change their read if he finds it accurate. That's why I was kind of shocked I was being pushed so much (my "bad plays"=/="scum"), and Risen and Keirathi too (Keirathi for his outburst against Risen and his self-vote). This brings to mind another possibility. I mean shit, matt could have pushed a lynch on me EASY. Then Keir is the next to go no questions asked in my mind. I just can't wrap my head around why matt buddied me. All it did was make me think he was scum. and that's the reason I believe scum could've won at any point :p Anyone could've been lynched given the correct type of push. DB had a low chance of winning but he didn't try. So we'll never know. However if we ignore these possibilities (and I'm glad you're not ignoring them) then we're blind to future eventualities. A win might be a win but if you can't reproduce that win in the future it doesn't matter much, right?
This makes me examine my "win" (read as: loss) in SSB64 with new eyes....... I've been patting myself on the back and cursing iGrok being shitty for the loss of that game when perhaps instead I should be examining the play that lead iGrok to be so dead set on his reads.
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Yup, as I said a tali lynch hit you guys hard. Then hitting matt was pure dumb luck and if I'm being entirely honest i was pushing the lines when it comes to trolling with that vote change to matt. I knew he'd rage if he ended up being scum bc it was like... The dumbest late day wagon I think I've seen with exception to johnnywup's blunder (i will love johnny forever <3)
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On July 21 2012 15:25 Keirathi wrote:
I still maintain that a lot (almost all?) of the clusterfuck would have been avoided without the cop claim, and it still would have come down to gonzaw vs matt.
I think a lot of the clusterfuck could have been avoided with a mason claim. I thought for sure it was scib until he didn't claim it and then I thought he might be scum so I used my n3 check on him (didn't end up mattering). THREE FOR THREE ON NIGHT CHECKS THO YEEE (this is bad...)
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Oh you're a hero. Thank you so much for writing this!
Edit: Can't answer question only got through first section as I'm on my phone but will def try to think this through tonight.
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EPT
