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SSB-64 Mafia - Page 30

Forum Index > TL Mafia
Post a Reply
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kingdedede
Profile Joined June 2012
Kazakhstan80 Posts
July 04 2012 22:43 GMT
#581
I guess we got lucky with our guess. The idea behind it was that scum would want to get rid of any extra town KP as fast as possible and my strongest town read on a (semi-)confirmed KP player was Cephiro.
We thought of driving ourselves (we were also afraid of iGrok picking us up), but figured the risk to Cephiro was probably bigger. That was hilarious. So happy with the role choice now :D

The earlier thought was to move any damage on a town player to a scummy player, but our strongest scum reads were at risk of getting shot themselves:

1. We still didn't like Tali. Grush has also voiced his dislike of Tali. Grush has KP and we thought he might shoot Tali.
2. Grush is a similar story. He has lurked and even a lynch hasn't gotten him to do anything useful. However, a bus was not really an option, because iGrok has said he thinks Grush is scum and he might have picked up Grush. Swapping a kp hit for a donkey kong ride seemed like a really bad idea.
3. iGrok also couldn't be swapped for the same reason as Tali. Grush had threatened to lynch him, so a shot was possible.

We were still pretty null on Saturn and Risen, but had a townie read on HRB. I just followed SnB's advice to swap Cephiro with the player least likely to take damage. We also kinda liked that Risen had 3 stock, so was not in any immediate danger. Wasn't really expecting a double hit, though.
Mister Saturn
Profile Joined June 2012
Vatican City State155 Posts
July 04 2012 22:45 GMT
#582
On July 05 2012 07:31 Mister Saturn wrote:
Sorry, I just got annoyed.

If you're going to lava push me, I don't really care at this point. You can go ahead. I think dedede is town and that means grush is probably scum. I'll be be interested in what iGrok has to say.

It's July 4th, so I won't be around today.

##Vote grush57


ugh bro so dumb just ugh

Even if hiro doesnt care i do we're town so don't push us.

idk what is up with all this depression going on from hiro

but anyway like I told hiro, right now I think talismania and igrok are probably scum.

I feel like igrok should have posted something by now?

I think risen is probably town so i'd rather not push him. It's also super dumb to push risen because we think grush is scum and risen might be a scumbuddy like talis seems to believe; go for one scum at a time, don't try to find hypothetical scumteams based on connections with people you don't even know are scum yet. If we think grush is scum then we should push grush.

Personally I think grush has a pretty good chance of being scum, since he's definitely not on the "wow that guy is playing super townie" side of the ledger.

So I would support pushing / lynching grush, talismania, or igrok at this point.

Also - proposal - how about we combo lynch/push the same person so we actually have a chance of seeing a flip sometime in the next century?

One last thing - normally i don't like asking people to reveal town reads but dedede you've already said you think cephiro is town. Would you mind telling me why? I had a pretty null read on him so far except for some setup speculation which made me think either he's scum or a captainfalcon is scum.

-strongandbig
mmaaawww
Mister Saturn
Profile Joined June 2012
Vatican City State155 Posts
July 04 2012 22:46 GMT
#583
also that was a pretty sick effective bus drive imo.
mmaaawww
Mister Saturn
Profile Joined June 2012
Vatican City State155 Posts
July 04 2012 22:46 GMT
#584
sleep now work tomorrow see you guys at lunch maybe
SandB
mmaaawww
HiroPro
Profile Joined March 2012
United States2624 Posts
July 04 2012 22:47 GMT
#585
Sorry, the whole iGrok thing has just screwed up my reads so bad I should stop martyring.

The push and lynch can be on different people since grush only has 1.5 stock.
talismania
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States2364 Posts
July 04 2012 22:53 GMT
#586
strongandbig you really think it's possible cephiro is scum after he ate two shots last night? And how unlikely is it that grush was just humdeedumming by his lonesome town self and decided to shoot cephiro of all people?

I say we lynch grush, push risen and possible even win the game.
iGrok
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States5142 Posts
July 04 2012 22:54 GMT
#587
dedede I want to buy you a cookie.

##push Risen
##Vote: grush57


Risen I won't push you if you claim.
MOTM | Stim.tv | TL Mafia | Fantasy Fighting! | SNSD
iGrok
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States5142 Posts
July 04 2012 22:54 GMT
#588
Do you guys mind if I wait to post until after the Zebes flip?
MOTM | Stim.tv | TL Mafia | Fantasy Fighting! | SNSD
iGrok
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States5142 Posts
July 04 2012 22:55 GMT
#589
Or I can post in a few hours (have a party to go to and then I'll finish the writeup when I get home)
MOTM | Stim.tv | TL Mafia | Fantasy Fighting! | SNSD
talismania
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States2364 Posts
July 04 2012 22:57 GMT
#590
@cephiro: I'm fine with you picking item spots.
Cephiro
Profile Joined May 2011
Finland1934 Posts
July 04 2012 23:01 GMT
#591
Going to go sleep, I'll be back in ~9 hours.

If the majority doesn't mind, I'll post which zone I want people to be in for the item when I'm back.

@iGrok, I'd really prefer to see those thoughts of yours asap... they better be posted when I wake up!
iGrok
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States5142 Posts
July 04 2012 23:02 GMT
#592
On July 05 2012 08:01 Cephiro wrote:
Going to go sleep, I'll be back in ~9 hours.

If the majority doesn't mind, I'll post which zone I want people to be in for the item when I'm back.

@iGrok, I'd really prefer to see those thoughts of yours asap... they better be posted when I wake up!

they will. Tell me where you want to me!
MOTM | Stim.tv | TL Mafia | Fantasy Fighting! | SNSD
kingdedede
Profile Joined June 2012
Kazakhstan80 Posts
July 04 2012 23:11 GMT
#593
@SnB: I found his stance in the whole debate with Risen townie. Sure, it was all mechanics discussion, but he seemed like the voice of reason trying to calm down some chaos in the thread. Then he did the same when iGrok derped it up. Not sure he was the first to point out the fact that iGrok made a mistake isn't scummy per sé. Seems to me scum would try to take maximum advantage from both these situations to get maximum chaos

The only exception to that is if iGrok and Cephiro are scum together, then all my reads make no sense anymore. That now seems pretty damned unlikely, though.

I'm not sold on the whole Risen-Grush connection. Seeing as Risen dies if we push him into the lava, I want to have a better idea than null and a tentative connection. Will read his filter and talk it over with Artanis tomorrow.

/Acro
kingdedede
Profile Joined June 2012
Kazakhstan80 Posts
July 04 2012 23:12 GMT
#594
@Cephiro: tell me where to stand.
kingdedede
Profile Joined June 2012
Kazakhstan80 Posts
July 04 2012 23:13 GMT
#595
EBWOP: probably too late. Ah well, plenty of time tomorrow.
talismania
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States2364 Posts
July 04 2012 23:26 GMT
#596
Risen

why did you switch your vote at the last second from grush to me anyway?
grush57
Profile Joined March 2011
Korea (South)2582 Posts
July 04 2012 23:32 GMT
#597
T_T.
Mafia are controlling you guys so well.
"Every thing is either simply awful or awfully simple." | "Weaklings can't pick... their way of death."
grush57
Profile Joined March 2011
Korea (South)2582 Posts
July 04 2012 23:35 GMT
#598
On July 05 2012 08:12 kingdedede wrote:
@Cephiro: tell me where to stand.

DECIDE FOR YOURSELF HE IS MAFIA AHHHHHHHHHHHH
"Every thing is either simply awful or awfully simple." | "Weaklings can't pick... their way of death."
HomerunBat
Profile Joined June 2012
Oman114 Posts
July 04 2012 23:42 GMT
#599
It's pretty funny, in the time I spent reading/writing last night I wrote up a big case on Risen, then decided to scrap it after going over past games. Here it is for reference:
+ Show Spoiler +

I want to talk about Risen.

I'll try to keep this brief as I can, but it's going to be a longer post, so brace yourselves.

Let's start with who he has been casting suspicion on. I was going to quote all the posts but I'll just summarize. Go have a look at his filter for verification.

He has very obviously been on iGrok since day 1.

He described a post by cephiro as 'so scummy,' and outlined in another post how he is scum playing dumb.

He commented that Mister Saturn should be higher than rank 5 on cephiro's suspicion list, due to scum Mr. S potentially playing the 'emokid' on purpose

He voted grush57 for emulating BM

He voted talismania at the last minute. Prior to this he had voted talismania for accusing him. He also found talismania's list weird for outing blues, despite the fact that that was public knowledge.

He voted for HomerunBat because we were so sure iGrok was town. He told Mr. Saturn to vote for us as well.

The only person missing from this list is kingdedede. He is a town read for cephiro, and I think he looks pretty town too. When I tried to think of someone who I had a stronger town read on, it wasn't easy. So to sum up, Risen has been on pretty much everyone in the game at different times, minus possibly the strongest town read in the game. He has been casting suspicion on anything that moves. Keep this in mind as we move forward.

Now have a look at this:

On July 04 2012 06:28 Risen wrote:
Well then lame... I still think people should vote for who they think is scum simply b/c a lynch != a flip. We don't gain information from a lynch like we normally would. At the same time, we have to put pressure on people we think are scum so it's not like we SHOULD be no-lynching. I just think putting a vote on someone you don't think is scum so you can be on one of the major targets is silly.


He wants to vote for people who are scum regardless of what the vote-count it. He doesn't think you should be voting someone you don't think is scum just to bandwagon on a major target. Our major targets as the lynch approached were grush57 and talismania.

Check it:

On July 04 2012 06:29 Risen wrote:
Also.

##unvote
##vote: GRUSH57


BM is NOT the person you want to emulate when playing games with me.


Thirty minutes later:

On July 04 2012 06:59 Risen wrote:
##unvote
##vote: talismania


LAST SECOND SWAP LIKE I SAID I WOULD FUCK YOU CEPHIRO!!!!

Show nested quote +
On July 04 2012 06:57 grush57 wrote:
HOW AWFUL.


AGREED!!!


He broke both his own rules here. He voted against his best scum reads (who I assume are me and iGrok, more on this in a sec), and tacked on to both of our major targets.

Now his latest post:
On July 04 2012 12:35 Risen wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 04 2012 10:01 Mister Saturn wrote:
EBWOP:

You don't think HomerunBat is scum anymore, Risen?


I don't actually have super strong scum reads on anyone. Not sure I could so early in the game. iGrok and homerunbat top my list followed by t and you. But if you shoot iGrok to death you'll be my favorite person in this game.


So the sum total of all his day 1 efforts...he thinks iGrok and I are the scummiest. He did jack shit to push us beyond momentary sparks amongst his accusations of pretty much everyone in the thread. Even after all that shit flinging, brazenly calling everybody and their mother scum, he has no strong scum reads? To me it looks like he is trying to look busy without actually doing anything.

Last, small part, has to do with meta. I looked at TL Mafia LI and LIII. He was town in the former and scum in the latter. I didn't find anything extremely telling, as he plays pretty similar as both town and scum.

There is one thing I noticed though. He was fond of using the old 'lol guys it's day 1 I have no reads' when he was scum, and it was nowhere to be seen when he was town.

Here's the links for your perusal
LI - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=325046
LIII - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=329128


I ended up scrapping it because in his meta I saw he looked really scummy when playing both town and scum. The biggest thing I couldn't get over is that when he is scum, he is very forthcoming with his 'town reads' because he knows he is not wrong. I didn't really see that here. Maybe the smaller game set-up is making him more cautious at naming people town. Also, him accusing damn near everyone in the thread actually aligns more with his town meta.

I ended up leaning slightly town because of this.

I want to look more into how he has been treating grush. Everyone else thinking Risen is scum has me doubting my conclusion.

-s0L
*PING*
talismania
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States2364 Posts
July 04 2012 23:51 GMT
#600
On July 05 2012 08:35 grush57 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 05 2012 08:12 kingdedede wrote:
@Cephiro: tell me where to stand.

DECIDE FOR YOURSELF HE IS MAFIA AHHHHHHHHHHHH


grush you still need to explain why the hell you decided to shoot him.

Right now I can't figure out why you did it from a town point of view, or why you would be dumb enough to admit to it from a scum point of view.
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