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Newbie Mini Mafia XIX
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
Get it started! | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On June 26 2012 05:05 ghost_403 wrote: Time Cycle: This game will follow a 48 hour day cycle. In case I am not able to post around deadline, any votes after the 48 hour mark will not count and the game will be put on halt until the night post is up. Currently the deadline is 22:00 GMT (+00:00), but that is subject to change. Actions/votes will be accepted up to and including the posted time, but not after. Im assuming its related to that deadline. But I could be wrong. Dead wrong. For crossing said line. Or something... | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
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Hopeless1der
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On June 29 2012 06:26 Anacletus wrote: What is a 3rd Party Planar Dragon? I sort of want to be that role...pew pew That would be pretty filthy... Is there a 3rd Party Planar Dragon? I hope the dragon doesn't eat hamsters | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On June 29 2012 06:08 marttorn wrote: That's not suspicious at all... | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
Everyone on board? | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On June 29 2012 07:19 JingleHell wrote: Actually, if many people neglect to post, it's the worst time to lynch lurkers, so why would you suggest it, Myles? Mathematically, if 6 lurk, then, if we assume 100% of the scum are also amongst the lurkers, we're already at a coinflip to get a scum. Very true. At that point its useless to policy lurkers. Now is the time to get this crap out of the way though. I do think we need some kind of policy to follow since the game is majority Lynch. Let's figure out our options and get the scumhunt on. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On June 29 2012 07:32 JingleHell wrote: And just in case people decide to show up, and start trying to take my lack of posts as suspicious, I'll be leaving in a bit for TKD. On June 29 2012 07:42 JingleHell wrote: Well, Myles, if you have a suggestion for flushing the scum with people not talking until we have something to go on, feel free to elaborate on that plan. Otherwise, I'm going to stick with the established method of getting people talking enough that we either get something to work with, or at least get enough people active to be physically capable of lynching anybody. Aha! That's what we're looking for you lieing...Or maybe 10 minutes counts as a bit...Whatevs, Not a big deal. I do probably need to read better though. Everyone else needs to hurry up and get in here, im freaking out man. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
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Hopeless1der
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On June 29 2012 11:41 Anacletus wrote: I am not sharing my thoughts as of yet, I don't think that that is in my best interest to do so. Dumb jokes aside, that is garbage and scummy behavior for anyone in this game. You would be better off lurking and pretending you weren't here, and even that could be considered suspicious. Our goal this early should be making whatever little reads we can and start building cases. Unfortunately we cannot do that with joke posts. Are you planning on giving us any reads? Right now, you have at best 1 post so far that I don't consider a complete write-off. Everyone has to start somewhere... | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
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Hopeless1der
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On June 29 2012 12:13 Anacletus wrote: Yeah I know, I've played mafia before. It's just that refusing to participate is pretty serious and is mentioned in the rules. Riiight...So where exactly in the rules is that mentioned? Except for the mandatory requirements (voting and posting at least once etc..), you're obligated to - Help your team win - and not cheat. sounds like you just don't feel like talking in general. Eventually you supplied: On June 29 2012 12:36 Anacletus wrote: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=347856¤tpage=8#155 If you actually thought that this was true... I think JingleHell is playing aggressively which leads me to believe that he is a townie. I only made the one about any supposed notes, the thread has 10 pages. So no, I am not filling the thread with trash about notes. Not the most informative post ever, but at least better than you've done so far./\ **I'm going to set a FoS: Anacletus on you. Nevertheless, I'm trying to give you the botd, since you've been bandwagoned hard. That's the best I can do for you at this point. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On June 30 2012 06:17 Fencer710 wrote: Single words are fine, though. Damn lack of edit button increasing my post count artifically.  It's like accidently opening no-gas in a matchup where you normally open gas because you forgot his race, then forced to all-in because you don't know how to open gasless FE. Argh...Thanks for derailing us hard ghost. It's time to get back to scumhunting now? and for future reference, the quoted post is usually seen as a complete waste of time and reason for suspicion. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On June 30 2012 06:35 Fencer710 wrote: Saying "I'm not mafia" holds just as much leverage as 'I'm a walrus who is GM in SCII so I can say whatever I want" in an [H] thread by NrGmonk in the SCII strategy section. I don't think it's possible to tell who is mafia based solely on who is or is not voting, unless only one or two people are/aren't voting. Votes may not tell you who is scum directly but it is a crucial part of building cases in the later stages of the game. Even though we don't know very much right now, we shouldn't be tossing votes around like they're going out of style. Having all these votes piled up on Anacletus so quickly disturbs me. I still consider him the most suspicious, but that's primarily because no one else has done anything noteworthy, except perhaps jingle going crazy at the start there. btw, Did you expect him to tell you he is mafia? Even if he was, that would be the dumbest move ever. He's not even trying to save himself with that statement, he's assuming hes as good as dead and suggesting that the non-voters are the scum. Pretty pro-town mentality imo. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On June 30 2012 12:20 Fencer710 wrote: OK, guys. I have to go to bed. My closing thoughts in case I don't make the deadline tomorrow: Remember, 7 people have to decide to lynch the same guy in order for there to be a lynch. It's me, Anacletus, or nothing. You can be meta all you want in your head, but it doesn't change what actually goes on in the thread. Remember to read and reread all the posts! I'll take you over Anacletus today. You're posting is extremely unproductive to me. It doesnt seem all that scummy, but its a massive hindrance when you don't provide anything for discussion, just constantly droning about how your new and guides are super cool. ##Vote: Fencer710 | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On June 30 2012 13:38 Promethelax wrote: You don't think Fencer is scum but you voted him? What the hell? If you are town this is horrible play, vote for someone who you think is scum not someone you think is annoying. Now, I think Fencer is scum so I voted him; what are you doing? This is really good advice, we should all follow it. We don't need townies acting like scum just because they are dumb. Come on guys there are 9 of us, we need to start working together, our strength is in numbers. This is why I can't imagine that you are town, I bring a case against you and your reaction is to give really generic advice and go to bed? You may as well just claim scum in the thread. I think Anacletus and Fender have had the scummiest play so far. However, I do not think that there is enough evidence that the [i]are[]/i] scum. However, I feel obliged to lynch someone, and Fender's death would be less hurtful to the town since Anacletus (was) posting somewhat relevant things to the thread. <--This is not a good reason to lynch someone I know, but its the best I can come up with under the circumstances for placing my initial vote. As you've already changed your vote to ensure a lynch, it probably doesn't matter anymore, but I was going to do the same thing (Switch vote from Fender to Anacletus) closer to the deadline (unless Fender got jumped). My reason for not immediately voting Anacletus was that they're both looking scummy and if I hammered, it could very well have halted all discussion for the rest of the day until we lynched him. | ||
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Hopeless1der
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Hopeless1der
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My point with the two players under suspicion is that I value the information from either lynch higher than the analysis of the lynched player or the lynched player's vote (Because they're targeting each other and not posting much analysis). I know town is down a player (potentially two) but the game is practically designed to mislynch day 1. I agree that our goal should be finding scum, not just getting information, but there is too little to go on so far other than ensuring someone gets lynched today due to bandwagoning. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On July 01 2012 00:17 JingleHell wrote: If you'll look back, since the very start, I've been against "yes or no" type play. I'm not evading anything, I'm saying we need to actually consider the angles. This isn't something we can just say one or the other is always better, so I'm not going to be forced to answer a question that doesn't line up with the way I believe we should play, and I'm not going to be called scum for being consistent that way. Why are you trying to force a decision based on too little information? That seems entirely more relevant at this point, because in the end, you'll see what decision I come to when I place a vote. You have been against yes/no play, I agree. You didn't really want to policy lynch to begin with. For the record I do not think your play is scummy. However, in order to vote for anyone you must come to the conclusion that it would be (or at least seems to be) beneficial for town. My problem with your answer is it assumes we will always be able to find scum, which right now I cannot. Too many bandwagons and lurkers. Therefore, my choices are to (semi-)knowingly go into either a mislynch or no-lynch situation. I qualified my question with "in a situation like this", by which I meant relatively poor cases, only two real options for voting, and a good chance to mislynch. My stance is it is better to mislynch for information than to no-lynch for an extra vote tomorrow. The votes that do get made are based off of better analysis due to having more information available. There is also the chance that we are lucky enough to pull scum. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
WORST CASE SCENARIO No Lynch Day1 + Show Spoiler + Day1: 9 Town, 3 Scum (33.333% Chance of hitting scum with random lynch) No Lynch, Mafia hit on town Day2: 8 Town, 3 Scum (37.5% Chance of hitting scum with random lynch (Mis)Lynch Day1 + Show Spoiler + Day1: 9 Town, 3 Scum (33.333% Chance of hitting scum with random lynch) Lynch Town, Mafia hit on town Day2: 7 Town, 3 Scum (42.8% Chance of hitting scum with random lynch) Conclusion: Mislynch Bad. No Lynch Worse. On July 01 2012 02:09 AmericanUmlaut wrote: SNIP My read on Anacletus isn't changed at this point, though; I still think he's got a good chance of flipping scum. I'm a bit concerned that there might be too many players who will be inactive between now and the lynch, in which case I'll be switching my vote back to Anacletus to prevent a no-lynch. WTF YOU ALREADY KNOW THIS WHY AM I DEFENDING MYSELF TO YOU?? | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
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Hopeless1der
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On July 01 2012 07:59 JingleHell wrote: Promethelax, go back to the case you and I made against Hopeless. He placed his vote on Fencer (who has been under vague suspicion quite a bit, including by the dearly departed), but only after the vote on Anacletus was nearly secured, and ended the day as the ONLY vote on Fencer. That ties in to the case we were already making about his scummy play. What do you think? Jingle, I didn't think Anacletus or Fencer were/are scum but I didnt want to No-Lynch. My vote went to Fencer to delay a hammer and hope some discussion was mounted to push it over the edge and hopefully generating some scumtells as the mafia pushed to get a mislynch, but Promethelax forced the issue since he couldn't be here at the deadline. I pushed Anacletus in two posts to try and get him to start contributing and he instead clammed up and got himself lynched without much of a fight. The case against him wasn't all that strong to begin with, but with the amount of bandwagoning he took early, anything he did would have looked like a desperate attempt to throw the attention off of him. He seemed to think the people who didnt vote for him are where the scum lie. I am of the impression that 2 of the 3 voted for him, and 1 did not, just to try and keep options open while managing to manipulate town into a mislynch. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On July 01 2012 09:33 Promethelax wrote: SNIP Let's look at his conclusion: it is bad to have a no lynch because if we kill of a town statistics suggests our next random lynch will be more likely to hit scum. Remember before this game started I said I was sorry if I was dumber than two rocks making love? I now present you with one of the two rocks required. Hopeless is either scum or playing an anti-town game because he has no idea what he is doing. Since the rest of us newbs figured it out I would guess it is the former rather than the latter. You've lost me Promethelax. My statement pertained to No Lynch and Mislynch (intentional or otherwise). Are you saying No Lynch is preferable? Because I'm saying Mislynch is preferable. Oh wait, when you cast your vote: + Show Spoiler + On June 30 2012 22:19 Promethelax wrote: Well this is obnoxious, I think Anaacletus is scummy but I think Fencer is more scummy, however I will be at work when the voting ends and this is my last minute in this thread for this day cycle, since I think a no lynch is really bad for us I am going to switch my vote to Anacletus, I hope that if he flips town you all will look at my Fencer case, he really does look more scummy to me. I'm putting the hammer on Anacletus because we need a lynch and I won't be here to convince people that we should get Fencer, I would leave my vote on Fencer if I thought I could make the rest of you realize that he is scum but since you seem to want to go for the second reddest person I will do that as well to ensure a lynch. I hope that if we are wrong and Anacletus is town you will all take a second look at my case on Fencer, if Anacletus is town Fencer is even more likely to be scum. @Intact: If Anacletus flips scum and you feel the need to go after me I can't stop you, you should go after Fencer but if you don't do that you should go after him on day three after I flip green (all this assuming I live through the next two nights which I probably won't without medic protection). ##Unvote: Fencer710 ##Vote: Anacletus Is there any way to make sure I don't have to do this in the future since I won't be around for the voting deadline? i.e. would it be possible to PM one of you to say my preferences in terms of my vote. That a lynch is better than a no lynch and a lynch on Fenccer is better than a lynch on Anacletus and so on. I want my vote to count but I also have to make it about 12 hours before the deadline which really messes with me, thanks. Your actions agree with my conclusion, whether you agree with the deduction itself or not. My 'non-committal' posts (at least towards Anacletus) were in fact a good read by me to identify someone being bandwagoned for a weak case. I can't decide if you and JH tunneling me so far is actually scummy or not, but don't for one goddamn second think I don't know what I'm doing. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On July 02 2012 08:09 Fencer710 wrote: I think it's a bit of both. One person that is extremely suspicious in my eyes is Intact, who was never looked at seriously by JingleHell. Of course, Hopeless is also suspicious because JingleHell's (second) last post before death was against him, as were all the posts including Hopeless before that. I think the dead men got their votes right, but we will have to wait for the accused responses to be sure. For the moment, FoS on both Intact and Hopeless1der. This is a big reason to think carefully on what the scum is trying to do. It makes me extremely suspicious and is a big WIFOM situation. The most likely options are that either: I'm scum and I'm trying to shut him up or I'm getting set up because I've repeatedly challenged Jingle throughout and I am already kind of under suspicion. Quite frankly I agree that I look really suspicious, but if we try to chase down my case, the scum get a lot of time to spend lurking instead of talking. I'd rather present cases on other players who I think are more suspicious than me. Fencer, what specifically pushed you over the edge with promethelaxes case on me? You're bandwagoning again without contributing much to the discussion. I will address the Intact situation shortly. You managed to post that thought as I was going through his filter so this will look like a reactionary post, but so be it. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
INTACT: /\ On June 29 2012 20:22 Intact wrote: I think I saw this type of play in a previous mafia game. Not sure which one though. There were 2 mafia who argued agressivly towards eachother early on. This reminds me of that occasion. On June 29 2012 21:37 Intact wrote: My first guess was Myles, however he is no longer on top of the list(although I will keep an eye on him). I'm leaning mostly towards Analectus, his posts contain very little of value and seems more like a way to avoid being branded a lurker. And like I said before I have seen scum play that is similar to what JH and Analectus is doing. Intact is sure he's seen this before from scum in previous games...Except they both are dead after D1/N1 and both flipped town. Following these posts, his next post is (in its entirety) On June 29 2012 23:28 Intact wrote: ##Vote Analectus No discussion, no thoughts, just hopping on board. After promethelax comes in to push his case on Fencer (which no one but me really took to), Intact sees this as a very suspicious move. Promethelax is attempting to flesh out multiple cases on day 1 instead of tunnelling one person, and Intact deems that scum behaviour because it might split the town and cause tension. On the other hand, Anacletus flipped town, so Promethelax had the right idea going after someone else. He justifies his choice to stand by his vote with: On June 30 2012 10:48 Intact wrote: In addition, should we lynch analectus and he turns put to be mafia, it would make it fairly easy to point out the other mafia. And if he turns out to be townie it would be very easy to confirm some townies. This is not true in the slightest and just screams scum to me. JH quickly picks up on it: + Show Spoiler + On June 30 2012 10:51 JingleHell wrote: Uhm, it really doesn't work that way. Because they know that we know that they know that we know... you can get as meta as you want, what it really comes down to is educated guesses, and convincing other people those judgement calls are reasonable. Both sides know the same things, and both sides can try to meta-game. You can't second guess the people who know more than you and get the same updates to info as you. All you can do is look for what they do with the information. That last line in the spoiler is the biggest point here. Intact is assuming that a lynch would reveal perfect information about who voted. That cant work since town must be involved in the mislynch, so how could you know with certainty who is scum and who is town? Unless you're scum, you cant possibly know after a D1 Lynch. Finally, he is currently lurking after saying: On July 01 2012 10:23 Intact wrote: So I see that there is some doubt about me and my posting. I'll try adress that in a couple of hours when I wake up. Just got home from a nightclub so trying to make sense seems like a bad idea right now. Maybe he's still hungover? Or maybe he's hoping no one calls him out so he can continue to lurk, post a vote with little to no thought (Seriously read his filter, he barely scratches the surface of suspecting someone), and get away scot-free again. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
BlinD-RawR /\ Really lurky, and told Fencer to hold off on his really early vote on Anacletus On June 29 2012 21:48 BLinD-RawR wrote: we still have 2 lurkers/inactive players, until we can get them to talk and really get some info from them I'd lay off of voting. On June 29 2012 21:48 BLinD-RawR wrote: we still have 2 lurkers/inactive players, until we can get them to talk and really get some info from them I'd lay off of voting. He goes on to Vote Anacletus anyways with very little further discussion from him. In fact there was little discussion FROM ANYONE. Read through the posts from when Fencer voted to when Intact voted. What changed? If anything, it was iamperfection hounding Fencer for sounding suspicious. This bandwagon vote was initiated by Intact, 2nd'd by Fencer (To throw off iamperfection?). Am.Umlaut came in and explained why he was voting the way he did, then dropped another vote for Anacletus. 4th: On June 29 2012 23:38 BLinD-RawR wrote: ##Vote Analectus going with what little we have, hes been the most scummy so far. That's not a solid reason to vote for someone...that should be FoS material right there. Next post, after Promethelax brings up Fencer's questionable play: On June 30 2012 13:47 BLinD-RawR wrote: Fencer has been quite unproductive, making excuses about being a newbie when he knows this is a newbie game, posting a lot to compensate for that, but I'm not ready to unvote for anacletus just yet. Is there anyway to know what roles have been filled by players?(I'm not asking who is what, I'm asking only the roles that has been filled since this has so few players therefore not all roles are filled on both sides) This post comes after a couple hours of discussion, so perhaps there isn't too much to add in, but his question to the mods is detailed in the OP of the thread. Semi-Open. It feels like hes trying to make posts without actually contributing. His next post addresses the fact that NrGMonk and BobtheLob have yet to really post much and he wishes he could make some reads. Meanwhile he has yet to provide a read of his own on anyone. A very easy way to look like its someone else's fault he's not as active as he'd like to be. On July 01 2012 01:44 BLinD-RawR wrote: I didn't do this yesterday, I'm calling it a night now so people know when I'm on and when I'm not, so seeing as I will miss the Night post I got somethings to say. I just hope that we don't end up in a no lynch situation and I really do want fresh reads from monk who has been largely inactive and people need to push on Bob to talk too. Bob has been as helpless as Fencer (who I think is more of an uncomfortable player than straight up scum but either way hes been hurting town play by not contributing) and worse is that we can't even get a read on him because he doesn't post. so until I have some sort of epiphany and rush to my PC, I'm going to stand by the Anacletus lynch. His post following the mislynch was kind of an "aw shucks, better luck next time team. Let's..continue to play the game and maybe find scum?" The post doesn't provide any insight into why we mislynched or if there is anyone in particular he feels is worth investigating. Just a generic, Go Team! vibe. The biggest thing that catches my eye is the way that nothing really changed to influence the decisions to Vote Anacletus, but with 4 votes, it seemed unlikely that we'd be able to build a case on anyone else in time for the deadline. I'm hesitant to think that all 3 scum would vote for Anacletus like that, but my top 3 reads are Fencer710, Intact, and BLinD-RawR | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On July 02 2012 09:26 BobTheLob wrote: Yay not me! :D :D :D :D :D What reads do you have on me(Besides scared/drunk/hasnoideawhattodo) Based on the way your vote fell, I see it as a bandwagon but because you don't want to look suspicious. No one else has made a solid case on anyone, so the scummiest looking player takes another hit. However, you lurk to an incredible degree, and you have a series of posts: + Show Spoiler + On July 01 2012 02:44 BobTheLob wrote: Just as a small defence for myself, I never post much and rarely post more than a few lines, it's just how I post as for bandwagoning... I'm new I have next to no idea what I'm doing and despite having read up on all of the resources still am a bit lost. As for reads, I just have a feeling about Anacletus, but whether or not he's scum I have no idea the same with Fencer.I didn't post earlier because I just woke up and last night I was playing a game of Civ IV with my friends :D On July 01 2012 02:44 BobTheLob wrote: Just as a small defence for myself, I never post much and rarely post more than a few lines, it's just how I post as for bandwagoning... I'm new I have next to no idea what I'm doing and despite having read up on all of the resources still am a bit lost. As for reads, I just have a feeling about Anacletus, but whether or not he's scum I have no idea the same with Fencer.I didn't post earlier because I just woke up and last night I was playing a game of Civ IV with my friends :D On July 01 2012 05:25 BobTheLob wrote: Wait so you're saying that because I point out that I couldn't post responses to the statements that I hadn't been posting because I was asleep, and saying that I don't post much anyway so not talking much wouldn't be indicative of anything, means that I'm not helping? I was debating the points others have, and by doing so am causing discussion (Which is what we want). So if I may ask if you are accusing me of something just come out and say it. where you basically say you don't post much, get called out for it, and make a really long and confusing attempt to establish the fact that you shouldn't be held accountable for lurking. While I frown upon lurking in general, my big problem here is that last post where you say: I was debating the points others have, and by doing so am causing discussion (Which is what we want). So if I may ask if you are accusing me of something just come out and say it. Quite frankly, you didn't. Your next post kind of had some reads but a lot of it was "I don't know" and "not conclusive". At least we have a starting point for where you're at in the game to go back to later. + Show Spoiler + On July 01 2012 09:03 BobTheLob wrote: Okay, I've lurked this entire game and I'm starting to realize that that is a bad idea, now on the topic of reads: iamperfection and I am very fucking suspicious We're screwed by nature of our habits. See lurking People are bandwagoning onto fencer now I agree he was acting odd but it's not conclusive Jingle and Promethelax are working together quite well and the rest of us are just following them. They seem to have alot of the same ideas... paying attention to them Myles hasn't posted to little or to much, he's playing it super safe. Not a clue Blind is, more or less in the same boat as me albeit a bit less so. See above AmericanUmlaut is doing quite well all his moves are well thought out but we still have no idea what side he's on could be one could be the other. No idea for him either Hopeless1der also seems to be the victim of a bit of bandwagoning but he seems pretty cool I'm thinking he's a town but hey I could be wrong Lastly Intact has been promoting conversation since the game began but seems to be in the same boat as me and perfection in that he hasn't posted enough. also not posting enough but I don't know That's all I got, keeping in mind that we have only one death so far and the night is going to be the most important bit so far because as Jingle said, the scum will try to set someone up Do games normally move this pace or faster/slower? You admit that you've lurked, that its bad, and that you should provide more reads. Please continue that train of thought. The last few things you did were admit to drinking and pointing out the WIFOM that the scum have set up regarding JH's NightKill. Not discussing or presenting ideas, just pointing out that it has happened. At least you aren't jumping the gun to accusing me I suppose... Your play looks poor at best, but I don't yet see a link between you and the other scummy players on my radar, so I'm hesitantly considering you town. That could very quickly change so be on your toes. And post more reads. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
Firstly I didn't know the deterrence between semi-open and an open game was until I saw the NMMXX thread and noticed the difference, and to be honest I really wanted to know because I wanted DTs to actually do their job instead of avoiding the fact that they exist in the game and use them back cases that have already been made on scum or build new cases based on who they checked on Night 1. What exactly would you have liked me to say after anacletus did get lynched? And yourself why should I believe any case you build from the sole fact that one of the 2 people who was on your case from the beginning was killed last night and what do you do? You redirect attention towards other people because there is nothing much you can do for the cases built against you. "didn't know the difference..."? I have difficulty buying this explanation. But its he-said-she-said at this point so I'll drop it. A simple gg for Anacletus would have sufficed, but you proceed to speculate on things he (obviously) could have done, and you just sound so very upset like it was a personal blow to you. You voted for him, you thought he was scum (didn't you?) He flips town and your resolve crumbles. Perhaps some feel its a townie trait to be remorseful, but the sentiment doesn't accomplish anything to out the scum. I consider your post scummy. Did you notice that JH wasn't just tunnelling me the entire time? JH actively pursued every case he could find in order to generate discussion and make reads. This would easily explain why he got killed by scum. It also heavily implicated me because one of his last posts were in response to my actions. However if given another day, he would probably have made a case on me and continued to make more cases. We'll never know, but I'd like to think that's what a good townie should do. What have you done besides attack my credibility? I want to see reads, not vague accusations of what might be scummy behaviour. I know I'm suspicious, but the scum benefit from us wasting time. The case against me is already out there. If you think its a good one, pursue it. However, the more time spent on me is less time spent on any other case. Which option do you think benefits town in the long run? Redirection is not my priority. Scum is my priority. My reads could be wrong, but they give people options to perhaps see a connection that went unnoticed and see what issues were swept under the rug later on. All of this contributes to making stronger reads going forwards. If I still look scummy, well I did everything I could to give the town some solid options and my reads will look that much stronger if/when I flip town. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On July 03 2012 00:04 Fencar wrote: You know what, I give up. I'm done. After my initial mistakes, everything I try to do is now banging my head against the wall.  Fencar, who should we be going after instead of you? You still have your vote on me, but I've since posted a read on both Intact and BliND-RawR. They both showed up in your list as not providing any reads. Do you still stand by your vote against me? Continue to build cases on people you think are suspicious, even if that's still me, don't just give up. It looks incredibly scummy and I'm leaning towards voting either You or Intact. It will be way easier to get you lynched from the way you posted, but you're both looking like scum to me. | ||
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Hopeless1der
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On July 03 2012 01:09 Fencar wrote: I can't wait until the end for you guys to find out. I forgot to say, Goodbye everyone! Fencars last couple posts make it sound like he wants town to screw it all up because we suspect him. If he flips town, I will be amazed. However, I don't want to push for his lynch just yet. Maybe he'll get a replacement, maybe he'll be modkilled. [green]Is there a deadline by which Fencar must be replaced before he is removed from the game?[green] | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On July 03 2012 01:38 Hopeless1der wrote: Fencars last couple posts make it sound like he wants town to screw it all up because we suspect him. If he flips town, I will be amazed. However, I don't want to push for his lynch just yet. Maybe he'll get a replacement, maybe he'll be modkilled. Is there a deadline by which Fencar must be replaced before he is removed from the game? EBWOP: Made the Question Green Is there a deadline by which Fencar must be replaced before he is removed from the game? | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
Since Anacletus was the mislynched, I'd have gone after someone who voted for him hoping to find scum. That leaves Blind, iamperfection and Myles. I would probably have gone after Myles for pretty much the same reasons he noted in his post above. iamperfection is still a null read for me, which effectively makes him town since I now have scum reads. BLiND-RawR would have been a close second, and I may well have pmed him as my choice before I developed a scum read on him. Now that we know Fencar's expiration date, do we try to lynch him today or hope he gets modkilled and if not, lynch tomorrow (This of course assumes we consider him the scummiest person). It seems that if we can pick up a free kill and have the chance to hit other scum, we should do that instead of getting hung up on the Fencar case. To that end, I'd like to push the Intact case, as he's my strongest red read so far, besides Fencar. Promethelax, who is your strongest read? I assume I'm up there, but a good townie like you wouldn't put all your eggs in one basket, now would he? On July 03 2012 01:52 ghost_403 wrote: NrGmonk will be replaced by sciberbia Hi sciberbia! Not to put you on the spot, but monk didn't give us all the much info. I don't care if you essentially copy our arguments, but I'd like to get your input specifically on myself, Intact and Fencar as we're the scummiest looking players so far. Any further reads you have would be awesome too. | ||
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Hopeless1der
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Time remaining in Day 2? And that's fine sciberbia, I wasn't expecting it right this instant. Still expecting it sometime though. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
I'm specifically bringing this to everyone's attention so that you can note the timestamps. I was one of the first to target Impact, and I don't want to be accused of bandwaggoning or anything like that if I can help it. On July 02 2012 08:48 Hopeless1der wrote: \/ INTACT: /\ Intact is sure he's seen this before from scum in previous games...Except they both are dead after D1/N1 and both flipped town. Following these posts, his next post is (in its entirety) No discussion, no thoughts, just hopping on board. After promethelax comes in to push his case on Fencer (which no one but me really took to), Intact sees this as a very suspicious move. Promethelax is attempting to flesh out multiple cases on day 1 instead of tunnelling one person, and Intact deems that scum behaviour because it might split the town and cause tension. On the other hand, Anacletus flipped town, so Promethelax had the right idea going after someone else. He justifies his choice to stand by his vote with: This is not true in the slightest and just screams scum to me. JH quickly picks up on it: + Show Spoiler + On June 30 2012 10:51 JingleHell wrote: Uhm, it really doesn't work that way. Because they know that we know that they know that we know... you can get as meta as you want, what it really comes down to is educated guesses, and convincing other people those judgement calls are reasonable. Both sides know the same things, and both sides can try to meta-game. You can't second guess the people who know more than you and get the same updates to info as you. All you can do is look for what they do with the information. That last line in the spoiler is the biggest point here. Intact is assuming that a lynch would reveal perfect information about who voted. That cant work since town must be involved in the mislynch, so how could you know with certainty who is scum and who is town? Unless you're scum, you cant possibly know after a D1 Lynch. Finally, he is currently lurking after saying: Maybe he's still hungover? Or maybe he's hoping no one calls him out so he can continue to lurk, post a vote with little to no thought (Seriously read his filter, he barely scratches the surface of suspecting someone), and get away scot-free again. I doubt there will be much in terms of other cases built, but I'll wait until morning like Promethelax. Intact is likely to have at least two votes tomorrow morning the way things are shaping up. Completely agree with that sentiment Myles. This whole "internet's broken" doesn't sit well with me either. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
Also of note, Promethelax's vote is locked (according to him being at work and all.) Vote Count please? | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On July 02 2012 06:00 ghost_403 wrote: End of Night 1 ERROR WITH FLAVOR GENERATOR. TheToast is in the shop getting repaired this weekend. Flavor soon to follow. JingleHell playing the part of a the ABL Poster, has been found dead! Day 2 has begin. You have 48 hours to decide on your next lynch. Deadline is at 22:00 GMT (+00:00). And sorry for the lack of flavor. We'll get right on fixing that. Timestamped @ 0600 KST. Shouldn't that be ~3hr19min from now? | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On July 03 2012 23:01 Intact wrote: SNIP That should cover it for the moment, I'll post my reads shortly after thinking them through, been mostly concerned with defending myself the lasts couple of days. Even if he were to post a fantastic analysis, there is very little time for us to discuss and make a decision other than to push us over the edge between our picks. Unless he comes after either myself or Blindy, he's first in line to get the lynch. I don't see strong cases on anyone else. I am still reading neutral on BobtheLob. He posted a read of Intact, but it had been looking pretty clear that hes our top suspect. It has the look and feel of an underproducing townie, but could be a late bus to build his cred. He's also posted a lot more today. Bonus points for that. Still neutral. BLiND-RawR isn't getting the attention so far. I intend to pursue his case following today's lynch. He's lurked since his defense against my case on him. Very scummy behavior. Given that I have what I feel are two good reads for scum, I'd rather focus on Intact today since Promethelax's vote is locked. Vote: Intact | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
##Vote: Intact | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On July 04 2012 03:55 AmericanUmlaut wrote: I'm feeling very nervous about this lynch. I still stand by my read of Intact, but Bob's most recent post is also very suspect to me. His case on Intact refers repeatedly to Intact's claims of lack of experience as being scummy, but Bob's own post is phrased in two places so as to disarm the reader by making passive reference to his inexperience: The post overall feels like it is less Bob's real thoughts on Intact's play than an attempt to justify his vote without appearing suspicious. My reading of Bob slightly scummier than before after the post. The question, though, is whether -- in the case Bob is a PBU -- the choice to vote on Intact is an attempt to build momentum for a mislynch or an attempt to bus a scumbuddy that he figures isn't long for this world in any case. I'm keeping my vote on Intact at this point. I'd love to hear others' thoughts on the situation, and I'm open to being persuaded otherwise, but I still think Intact is the scummiest read. Especially considering he promised reads for us to build on "soon", five hours ago. I think he sees sciberbia's cases on Bob and Blind-Rawr as a chance for him to dodge a banhammer, and he's laying low hoping that we get distracted discussing them and forget about him. I agree it's not a very strong case, but that reads like hes a newbie and rationalizing his case based on the fact the he's been told that doing those things are scummy. It's a speaking from experience thing to me. The quality of his posts is what concerns me. He acknowledges that its not exactly finished, but hes short on time. This is kind of true, but 4 of us had yet to vote at all, meaning we would have to come back to the thread at some point or get modkilled. I can see him being a little flustered about being suspicious and wanted to demonstrate quickly that he's an active townie. I'm willing to see if he can give us some more quality in his posts before I am ready to accuse him of being scum. If his post quality degrades, I would view his read of Intact as a (bus/mislynch depending on his flip). @Umlaut's nervousness/Bob's twitchyness: That's the game. People are going to look scummy. To avoid that, post your reads as thoroughly as you can and push the scummiest read you have. I'm voting for my scummiest read. It looks like you're both doing the same. I can't ask much more of you than that. After the lynch, keep posting reads and try to provoke the scum into slip-ups. @Myles: I noticed that too, its in my case on BLiND-RawR. The bandwagon was why I have Fencar, Intact and Blindy on my scum radar in the first place. The lurking and poor posts have further supported my reads on them. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
(See marv, I can spell his name just fine.) | ||
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Hopeless1der
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Intact you should probably throw a vote... | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
He's dead now right? We may have better people to lynch. gg Intact. Agree with Umlaut: Everyone else, post your goddamn reads if you say you will so this stops happening. Broken promises make you look like scum. Really sloppy play. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
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Hopeless1der
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On July 04 2012 12:11 BobTheLob wrote: I've more or less given up, I dug myself a hole. I realize that I look scummy as hell and there is very little I can do to convince you otherwise because if I suddenly got a whole bunch of shit put together and did some epic reads it would just be me doing damage control and still look scummy. Now IMO Prome is scum and that's who I'll be voting tomorrow if we don't get anything better. Also I realize that I'm dead sooooooo... Yeah FML. You know, I did the same thing but instead of giving up, I started posting solid reads and getting involved. As a result, I still look scummy, but not quite as scummy as the other players. Either I'm a goddamn genius or it just took me a little while to get my townie feet under myself. I'm letting the cases I present and my activity demonstrate my towniness, not "HEY GAIZ IM A TOWNIE FOR SURE!11" If you can get a "whole bunch of shit put together" thats not damage control. Damage control is what Intact did, only defending his posts and the case against himself which looks scummy. Contributing to town is...well, contributing. It reflects well on you and while you could be seen as shifting suspicion, if your read is that good, we'll notice and actually think before we autolynch the next scummiest player at any given point in time. Post it before someone else gets the chance so you don't look like you're bandwagoning. Keirathi pretty much gets a pass until the nk since he just got here, though I really would like to see some reads before such a time. I'm concerned that there just isn't much to go on without stretching reads pretty thin on players who up till now have seemed like town. Hopefully, Keirathi is town and doesn't have any bias regarding our reads since he's starting with all the information we currently have instead of piecing together as we go along. I'm going to wait to post my reads until tomorrow, give our newest replacement a chance to catch up and give us another fresh perspective. I should be able to post before the deadline, I usually get a break at work that I can write up my reads before noon. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On July 04 2012 06:28 sciberbia wrote: @keirathi welcome! Sorry, but you inherit suspicions from the actions of BLind-Rawr. If you are town, I ask that you make an effort to post a lot over the next few days and convince me of your innocence. Am I allowed to use the words/actions of mods as evidence towards determining players' roles? @ghost gratz on your 1000th post. I'm impressed that you remembered to change the number after copy+pasting your 500th :p Q never got answered. Either way, the information skews the game no matter what so its not really a very credible source of evidence in my opinion. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
The most suspicious person I've identified based on the way the game has progressed is AmericanUmlaut. While he's been active, he hasn't posted very detailed reads. He also backed the Intact case, essentially copying mine and expanding on it, but never actually acknowledged that I'd made a case. In addition, the way his "Lurker PBU" Post went, he completely brushed off the actual lurkers in favor of the case he really wanted to discuss. He was also involved in both mislynches, but switched his vote Day1 after the bandwagon had started to roll. His vote was against me, but he has never really gone into any detail about his read on me, just piggy backing JH's case from Day1. This suspicion hasn't been addressed by him, but he's carried it through at the end of his Intact case, which as I've pointed out came AFTER mine: + Show Spoiler + On July 02 2012 20:53 AmericanUmlaut wrote: The lurking PBU There are currently four posters whose activity levels are low enough that I'd characterize them as lurking: Intact, BobTheLob, Blind-Rawr and iamperfection all have less than a page of posts, which is very little considering the amount of discussion that went on prior to the game actually starting. There are three PBUs. If they are playing intelligently, they will have noticed from the beginning that this game has had a fairly large number of lurkers, and one of them will be chilling among them and doing their best to just scoot by. It's possible that two scum are lurking, but I would guess that the others are among the more active posters because having only a single active community member puts you in a bad position if that player gets lynched; the PBUs lose their ability to manipulate debate, and one of the previous lurkers trying to establish their voice afterward is obviously scummy play. I think that my logic for concluding that at least one of the four low-post players is a PBU is strategically sound. Ideally we would flush them out by getting the other three to start posting more analysis, but I think it's clear at this point that we're going to have to win this with a couple of low-content players amongst us, which means we need to figure out which of the lurkers is most likely our PBU. We have little to go on, but let's take a look at what's available: iamperfection: His posting day 1 was worthless. Since day 2 has begun, he's started to participate, albeit in a very low-key manner. I'd like to see more thought-out posts from him, but I'm leaning toward his being one of the good guys and just unsure of how to play as the game got going. BobTheLob: His posting day 1 was worthless. His posting day 2 is worthless. My read is entirely worthless, because he's not playing. In an environment where everyone was being super productive and he was just posting about how drunk he is, I'd say let Kwark pop him, but I feel like the odds are too good that he's actually just a really awful town player to take that risk. Blind-RawR: Also posting so little actual analysis that it's hard to make any kind of useful read. However, Hopeless1der's case against him is such a stretch that my conclusion is that it's almost certainly a clumsy attempt at provoking another mislynch and that Blind_RawR is thus probably town. Which leaves us with: Intact: This is basically Intact's first move of the game: A vague reference to how maybe JH and Anacletus might both be scum, but presented in such a way that it's easy to distance yourself from later on. I acknowledge that I responded with agreement that this could be a useful bit of analysis if one of them flipped red, but knowing that both were town makes this look like an attempt to get discussion moving toward a mislynch. I really don't see anything suspicious about Promethelax's case against Fencer. I think I'm not alone when I say that he's around the top of the suspects list at the moment. What about Promethelax's analysis of Fencer's play seemed suspicious? This seems like an attempt to just sow dissent without any real logic behind it. And then comes this brilliant observation: Anacletus was, in fact, one of the good guys. We banned him. By what logic are we now able to confirm some townies? This post is just stupid, and to me it stinks of someone who is playing with the full information that a PBU has, and hasn't thought through the logic of the limited information environment that we town players are in enough to fake logical conclusions that sound like they were made by a townie. Summary: Four players (25% of the game population) are posting at barely-there levels, which leads me to conclude that at least one PBU is almost certainly hiding among them. An analysis of the few posts that they have made leads me to conclude that Intact is by far the most suspicious among them. The scumteam I currently have in mind is Intact, hopeless1der and Fencer710. Of the three, I feel the most strongly about Intact and hopeless1der; I feel like Fencer could conceivable be really bad and having a panicky reaction to being suspected. If anyone could help me analyze the way those three have interacted to argue either in favor of or against my hypothesis, I'd really appreciate the help. Regarding the bolded in the last paragraph of the quoted post above...serious conflicting ideas there considering I'd just posted a large case that unfortunately contributed to lunching a VT. He completely agreed with my case though, even if he never referenced it. Since then he still kind of keeps my scumminess on his backburner but never addresses the case against me, and it feels like hes waiting for someone to bring it back up so he can jump on it. I'm stuck in null-read (I hope) limbo and I feel like I'm an easy bandwagon target so I'm very suspicious of his play regarding the case on me. Once Keirathi posted his detailed read of the thread so far, Umlaut felt it was necessary to piece-by-piece defend himself but has been pretty mute on the course of events otherwise. This isn't pro-town and sounds like he just wants to deflate Keirathi's contribution so that we end up with less credible information. Then again, so did Promethelax, and I'm watching him a bit more closely now, but I don't feel Keirathi's read on him is as strong as he's made it out to be. In addition, Prom didn't really attack Keirathi's post, and felt like a much calmer, reasoned defense than the tone of AmericanUmlaut's. FoS: AmericanUmlaut There is still the issue of Fencar/Miltonkram's case to look at...I guess I'll wait until Milton has a chance to catch up? Or possibly what turns up after the NK. There isn't anything new to pursue on Fencar aside from drawing arbitrary conclusions on why he chose to give up and that is not worth it to me. We're kind of forced to push that case based on what we had before Milton came in or else we lose a lot of our previous reads based on Fencar's behavior-related scumminess because Milton now has the opportunity to correct it even if he turns out to be scum. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
With respect to my brief paragraph about Prom, that was more of an afterthought that someone might have brought up as a flaw in my reasoning against Umlaut. It was my take on their tone in their response to you and less about the content of their respective defenses. Ultimately, I find AmericanUmlaut to be the scummier looking player, based on my reads and his hostile tone through his defense, and that was the main point I wanted to convey without looking like I'd just dismissed the fact that your strongest read was Promethelax. wrt myself: The most basic thing that altered my posting was that I sought advice from the coaches after JH built a reasonable case on me during the whole mislynching for info ordeal. Early on I wasn't especially serious because of all the joke posts going around, and that came back to bite a number of us in the ass, Anacletus first and foremost. I then dug myself into a hole with my whole mislynch vs no lynch nonsense, and I doubt very much I'll ever get to full town cred because of my foolishness, but if I'd just rolled over and died on my stance it'd have looked even scummier imo. It initially started as errant policy discussion and I got way too caught up in my own opinion and kept pushing my own agenda while only kind of making reads in the process. After getting advice, I focused almost entirely on scumhunting like I was supposed to, posting with greater conviction and better quality, causing people, yourself included, to second guess my alignment. I could clearly see that I was looking very scummy and a drastic change was required if I had any chance of helping save town. No problem about coming down on me, I've earned it. Hopefully this post helps alleviates some of your concerns about me. Oh there's the NK. gg sciberbia. By my count its 5 town, 3 scum remaining, meaning if we mislynch we lose unless we have blue roles to save us from scum or shoot scum. We would do well to keep that in mind as we proceed with the day's voting | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On July 05 2012 10:55 Promethelax wrote: Okay, clearly Keirathi thinks I am scum and a reasonable and well thought out response doesn't change his mind. I am not going to bother to defend myself against this since Kier won't listen to reason. If he is going to force everyone to mislynch me I want to get as many of my reads and the reasons for them into the thread so that when I flip green you townies will have more to work with, assuming that a medic protects someone tonight! Come on medic no one will look down on you for batting .333. So, Keir, if you have anything that you want me to respond to ask me directly. If you just want to suggest that I am scum for no good reason I'm not going to bother to respond. We won't gain anything by me shitting up the thread with my defense so I'm going to give you solid reads instead, if you are town I hope you'll realize that I am too; if you aren't I don't really care what you think. If you really have read my filter so closely I would expect you to have realized that I am not red. So first: my scum reads. I am leaving Fencar out of this because he has been replaced but I still think he is probably scum and I hope that we all give his replacement a cold hard look. Blind-Rawr, now Keir, is scum. I never really thought that Blindy was was defiantly scum, or more accurately I never looked at him because there was nothing to look at. His filter is...ten posts long after the start of the game until the point where he was replaced. He never gave us a single read and he could have either been new at town or at scum. He seemed scummy by virtue of his lurking and his lack of reads but he was never my scummiest read and I never followed through on looking into him really. The thing is as soon as he was replaced we got an active player with grandiose reads covering everyone in the thread. He came in here and told us to ignore the scummy vibe everyone had on Blindy and to totally pay attention to his reads. His reads that put me on the top of a scum list. Now like the reast of you, barring scum and dt if we have one, I have a total of one mod-confirmed townie alive in this game. That townie is me and I feel like I have done a good job in that role to work for town and to find mafia, this is reflected in the town read that everyone had on me until Kierth came into the thread, until he showed up no one thought I was mafia and I don't believe that anyone does now. Every townie in this game has a town read on me because of my behaviour. Keir says it is because of how much I post. My filter is three pages long. Count 'em. You know who else has a three page filter? Statistically speaking you do. Myles is on three pages, so is Umlaut, and Hopeless is as well. JH has four pages and he died n1. Lurkers like Bob, Iamimperfection and even Anacletus have two page filters. So why does Kier attack me with this facitius reason? I can't think of any reason for town to distort the facts like this; I can think of a reason for scum to do it though, they want me dead. There has to be a reason that scum killed Sciberbia and not me since we were the most active and the guys who were most well thought of as green. I assume everyone else had a town read on Sciberbia since I did. The only reason I can think of is that I had more of a filter and therefore more things that could be called scummy by scum players or that Sciberbia had better scum reads than me. I wasn't sure that Blindy was scum but Sciberbia sure thought so, you can tell by the way he voted for him: Keir's one big post is a re-hash of everything that has happened in thread. He calls it his notes and there are a few observations thrown in but it feels like a a huge post that screams “look at me! Look at me! I am totally contributing!” without actually contributing. I'll link the post and you can read it over for yourself, it is so big that I skimmed it this morning when I had to run to work but it actually doesn't add as much as something of that length should. In that long long post Kier calls Sciberbia 25% lilely to be scum. And when Sciberbia dies and flips town he says: look at that attempt to gain towncred. Sciberbia was my best town read too but you'll notice that I acted on that before his death. Although I guess that is true based on what he said, 25% is the lowest chance of flipping scum he gives followed by two thirties and everyone else has a 50% chance or greater, talk about hedging your bets and leaving yourself an out. So I think that Sciberbia was right, BlinD-Rawr was scum and so is kier. My bet is that Hopeless1der is also scum. I have already made a case about him and here it is On top of this he has continued to post in a scummy was and when I came under attack he soft defended me I think that he knows that I am green and knows that if I am lynched having defended me will look good. Once I flip green the town will probably lynch Kier (assuming we get our medic save at night, we may as well plan to succeed since planning for failure won't help us) and Keir has said that Hopeless is his next scummiest read after me. Hopeless has defended me. I believe that the scum plan is to get me mislynched in return for probably just straight winning and, if they don't win, losing one of their own and confirming a second as town in everyone's eyes. He also pushes Umlaut while Keir calls him town, it looks to me like scum setting up the perfect follow up mislynch after both Kier and I have flipped. It is my firm belief that Hopeless is scum. His play seemed stupid but it changed drastically, he says he got coaching but I bet it was from marvellosity and not xsksc or artanis[xp], note his familiar use of marvellosity's name here: I'd say that is from someone who has talked to 'marv' and not our coaches. Hopeless1der is scum along with Kier. Since we are in a situation where we will lose if we mislynch we lose (assuming there are no brilliant medic saves, which seem unlikely at this point) I want to talk about town reads too. It doesn't matter if scum know who we see as town, we all need to have each others' reads. Town only benefits from more information and I want to get as much of it out there as possible. The person I want to talk about is Myles, since I have made a case against him in the past as have JH and others, I think he is a possible mislynch target. Myles is, as far as I can tell, town. (look at me, spelling out that my opinions are my opinions, I wish I had more information that I could give you but I don't and I can't). So, as you know if you have read this thread, I have stated in the past that Bob is scummy. I don't think so anymore, and not just because he was celebrating Canada day with me. Bob is actually right to bring this up, we jumped on him for the exact same thought process which was worded more poorly in his case. Bringing attention to this serves no purpose if he is scum. He wouldn't want to make us re-look at his mistakes. But he focuses on them to bring attention to another player. Admitting to his own mistakes and using them to make a point, albeit a simple one, is a townie behaviour. It is also his post onto which Keir bandwaggons. Though he totally fails to mention that he isn't posting something revolutionary. I think that if Kier is scum Bob is town and, since I am sure that Kier is scum I am also sure that Bob is town. Saying what Bob said above as scum would be dumb, I am one of the most active town players and have had 0 suspicion on me all game so why would he say this? Only if he were town who actually thought that I was scum, he is wrong but green as far as I can see. To some up this post for those that don't have the patience to wade through it: Kier=Scum Hopeless=Scum Bob=Town Prom I'm sorry you still feel that I'm scum. I thought I'd really improved my posting since Jingle was NK'd. My soft defence of you was just a pre-emptive defence on my own logic in my read against AmericanUmlaut. Unfortunately for me, I'm leaving shortly for the night, so I'll try to get all my reads out on the table tomorrow. Also for the response to marvellosity, he'd posted this shortly before that comment. On July 04 2012 02:40 marvellosity wrote: Why does no-one ever spell sciberbia's name correctly? :< Sorry for having a sense of humor about it. Yes it was a no content post, but it was so close to the deadline and I didn't really have anything new to add to the discussions, just passing time until the lynch. In the meantime, is it worth No-Lynching today? We get another day to look for scum and it buys time to get a better read on miltonkram and keirathi. It also gives our potential blue(s) another day to get information. Right now I'm inclined to believe its our best course of action as town is guaranteed to not lose for one more day. ##VOTE: No Lynch Townie remaining count on the front page should be 5 instead of 6. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
TL;DR: Umlaut, Keirathi, Perfection In response to Perfection: The No-Lynch itself didn't help scum, it was the long drawn out debate about it. My basic reasoning in No-Lynch is we're guaranteed at least one more day. If we mislynch tonight, we can lose. I feel the greater risk is in trying to lynch scum today. The flip from the NK will color our reads and hopefully make it easier to target scum when we absolutely must lynch or lose the game. Regardless, let's not discuss it further until we're closer to the deadline. We need to make all our reads so that we're as prepared as we can be for the next Day's voting as well. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
Some of my scummy behavior is from throwaway posts early. Whether anyone believes me or not, well I tried: On June 29 2012 07:40 Hopeless1der wrote: Very true. At that point its useless to policy lurkers. Now is the time to get this crap out of the way though. I do think we need some kind of policy to follow since the game is majority Lynch. Let's figure out our options and get the scumhunt on. On June 29 2012 07:56 Hopeless1der wrote: Aha! That's what we're looking for you lieing...Or maybe 10 minutes counts as a bit...Whatevs, Not a big deal. I do probably need to read better though. Everyone else needs to hurry up and get in here, im freaking out man. Easily done as scum to fall back on later so I don't expect this to sway anyone significantly, but consider the two posts I quoted. They're both terrible with practically no contributions, except for the role I breadcrumbed. Since I have to vote for someone, I'm voting for AmericanUmlaut as my strongest read, and he currently has no votes. I'd prefer the no-lynch in this situation, but I cant vote No Lynch so... ##Vote: AmericanUmlaut | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
Prom has not yet had a chance to respond to my claim, and I'm interested to see his take on it. Regardless, if we have an information role (DT/Tracker/Watcher), I'd like you to post anything you have as close to the deadline as possible in case you are NK'd. Medics cant really do anything other than go for the miracle save. I could care less if I was shot, as it would prove I was town and lend some more credence to my read on Umlaut (Yay more Wine). Tomorrow, I think we should mass claim because its a Lynch (correctly) or lose situation. There may be an exception for a Vigilante to save his shot for the next night, but other than that I can't think of a good reason not to claim. As a heads up, I'm gone camping for the next day or so. I don't expect internet access until Sunday morning. I'll be around for another hour tonight. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
The biggest defence I have right now is my suspicions of Umlaut as he's the most involved in sealing the deal. If he was scum, his gambit could never have worked the way he described (as Prom pointed out), but everyone is using that as the final piece of the puzzle to peg me as scum. This only works if AmericanUmlaut is town, which is in no way confirmed by any checks. We have only our reads as far as I know, so my only way out is to convince you he's scummier than me. In his scum-list post (+ Show Spoiler + On July 02 2012 20:53 AmericanUmlaut wrote: The lurking PBU There are currently four posters whose activity levels are low enough that I'd characterize them as lurking: Intact, BobTheLob, Blind-Rawr and iamperfection all have less than a page of posts, which is very little considering the amount of discussion that went on prior to the game actually starting. There are three PBUs. If they are playing intelligently, they will have noticed from the beginning that this game has had a fairly large number of lurkers, and one of them will be chilling among them and doing their best to just scoot by. It's possible that two scum are lurking, but I would guess that the others are among the more active posters because having only a single active community member puts you in a bad position if that player gets lynched; the PBUs lose their ability to manipulate debate, and one of the previous lurkers trying to establish their voice afterward is obviously scummy play. I think that my logic for concluding that at least one of the four low-post players is a PBU is strategically sound. Ideally we would flush them out by getting the other three to start posting more analysis, but I think it's clear at this point that we're going to have to win this with a couple of low-content players amongst us, which means we need to figure out which of the lurkers is most likely our PBU. We have little to go on, but let's take a look at what's available: iamperfection: His posting day 1 was worthless. Since day 2 has begun, he's started to participate, albeit in a very low-key manner. I'd like to see more thought-out posts from him, but I'm leaning toward his being one of the good guys and just unsure of how to play as the game got going. BobTheLob: His posting day 1 was worthless. His posting day 2 is worthless. My read is entirely worthless, because he's not playing. In an environment where everyone was being super productive and he was just posting about how drunk he is, I'd say let Kwark pop him, but I feel like the odds are too good that he's actually just a really awful town player to take that risk. Blind-RawR: Also posting so little actual analysis that it's hard to make any kind of useful read. However, Hopeless1der's case against him is such a stretch that my conclusion is that it's almost certainly a clumsy attempt at provoking another mislynch and that Blind_RawR is thus probably town. Which leaves us with: Intact: This is basically Intact's first move of the game: A vague reference to how maybe JH and Anacletus might both be scum, but presented in such a way that it's easy to distance yourself from later on. I acknowledge that I responded with agreement that this could be a useful bit of analysis if one of them flipped red, but knowing that both were town makes this look like an attempt to get discussion moving toward a mislynch. I really don't see anything suspicious about Promethelax's case against Fencer. I think I'm not alone when I say that he's around the top of the suspects list at the moment. What about Promethelax's analysis of Fencer's play seemed suspicious? This seems like an attempt to just sow dissent without any real logic behind it. And then comes this brilliant observation: Anacletus was, in fact, one of the good guys. We banned him. By what logic are we now able to confirm some townies? This post is just stupid, and to me it stinks of someone who is playing with the full information that a PBU has, and hasn't thought through the logic of the limited information environment that we town players are in enough to fake logical conclusions that sound like they were made by a townie. Summary: Four players (25% of the game population) are posting at barely-there levels, which leads me to conclude that at least one PBU is almost certainly hiding among them. An analysis of the few posts that they have made leads me to conclude that Intact is by far the most suspicious among them. The scumteam I currently have in mind is Intact, hopeless1der and Fencer710. Of the three, I feel the most strongly about Intact and hopeless1der; I feel like Fencer could conceivable be really bad and having a panicky reaction to being suspected. If anyone could help me analyze the way those three have interacted to argue either in favor of or against my hypothesis, I'd really appreciate the help. Since my claim, he hasn't even tried to build up any more of a case on me, he's relying on the fact that his gambit was 100% guaranteed. The last thing about Umlaut that is suspicious to me: Look at the day 1 votes On July 01 2012 06:10 ghost_403 wrote: Day 1 Final Vote Count: Anacletus (7): BLinD-RawR, BobTheLob, Fencer710, Intact, iamperfection, Myles, Promethelax Intact (1): Anacletus Fencer710 (1): Hopeless1der Hopeless1der (2): AmericanUmlaut, JingleHell Not Voted: NrGmonk Anacletus has been lynched Day 1. NrGmonk will be replaced for failing to vote. Of the players that did NOT vote for Anacletus, two are alive. Me and Umlaut. I don't think all three scum would have voted for Anacletus. I'm of the impression that one of us is scum. I've made my claim as VT. I expect I have exhausted @Promethelax, The reason I specifically wanted you to review my claim was that you've been getting a scummy read of me mainly from Jingle before his NK on Night1. I feel like you've had me as scum the longest, or at least were committed to it first when it was mainly based on my Day1 posting. Knowing that I was breadcrumbing (apparently meaningless things, but nevertheless...) and the first half of Day 1 was not my most productive posting, it may influence your read on me enough to move me into "not first" on your scum list. Since Milton has been NK'd, I'd also like you to review this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=347856¤tpage=19#377 In your discussions with Jingle, you made note that we might be casting suspicion without repercussions due to the votes on Anacletus at the time, and it would be easier for us to "look less scummy if the other flips." Fencar/Miltonkram have since flipped town. I don't know if that makes me look more scummy or less scummy at this point, but the situation is different than the read you previously had and I'd like you to revisit it with the information we have now. On July 08 2012 06:11 Keirathi wrote: I was roleblocked  ...You gotta be fucking kidding me dude. My day is ruined. I wish someone would counter-claim this. As a note on my breadcrumbing of things: There wasn't really a purpose to me breadcrumbing things as I had no role, I was attempting to practice or something like that in the event I got a blue in another game. I'm likely to make myself look retarded, but man I'm desperate to do something to make people think twice about me. Going through my filter from the start of the game, if you take every capitalized letter (except from green text) I spell : TITLE VANILLA TOWNIE AND YOU ARE AUF WIEDERSEHEN INITIATIVE HAIDEHP-->Nonsense from this point The "auf wiedersehen" was a reference to Umlaut who I was going to try to get lynched for lurking if he didn't show up Day1. He started posting before I finished, but I figured what the hell why not? To not look like a spammy retarded scummy player is why not, so kudos to me for being a tard and setting myself up for failure. If I was scum, why breadcrumb like this instead of pretending to hide a blue claim to go back to later on? There is practically no merit to what I did, just the risk of looking stupid/scummy, of which I probably look both at the moment. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
I expect I have exhausted Umlaut's filter without trying to make a scumslip out of everything he did, so I'd like to see what he claims before tunnelling him any more than I already have. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
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Hopeless1der
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Hopeless1der
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Hopeless1der
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Hopeless1der
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
That means that all three scum are between bob, perfection, umlaut and promethelax. Only one of those 4 can be town. Bob just had a chance to basically say that he agrees with Prom/Umlaut and come very close to winning for scum. The fact that he didn't means that hes either not scum or they're concerned that they won't be able to get perfection to vote for me. I'd like to believe bob is town as he just hasn't felt like scum to me. Myles' vote is still in the air, but if he reads this post and agrees that I may not be town, we may have this in the bag without needing the information roles to claim anyways. And pre-post edit to Bob's post on not voting yet: Well I can't really blame you for not voting yet bob, but at the very least you're going for a majority lynch. Can't fault you too much for that, but if you can go through the last couple pages of the thread and see if you can make a read on whether you think I'm scum or not. If we don't get a majority lynch we are almost certainly going to lose, but you can still post a read to help sway the vote to who you think is the scummier player. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
In addition, Promethelax is one of the players who has built up a case against me. In fact, I believe it is his case that is responsible for me being accused of being scum. Given that you think Promethelax is scum, his case should not have valuable merit to you, or it should look very suspicious to you. If you think he is scum, there is a good chance that I am not scum and therefore you would do well to vote against the player that Promethelax voted for. The alternative is that we are both scum and Promethelax is sacrificing me for the good of the scum team. Figuring out this situation is the reason we want you to go through the thread and post your reads. It would make it clearer what your opinion is, and make it easier for us to decide who to vote for based on who out of the players most heavily involved are scummiest. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
##Unvote ##Vote: Promethelax | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On July 10 2012 05:39 BobTheLob wrote: I call bullshit on this, If you thought it was him then you should have at least said so, you are getting more and more scummy as the day goes on, what the fuck is up with that. Bob, Keirathi has said Prom is his top read all along. And holy shit you got judgmental all of a sudden. Where the hell was this when we needed it. His reasoning is laid out in this post: + Show Spoiler + On July 10 2012 01:52 Keirathi wrote: I don't necessarily think he is scummier than you. I also don't think I'm a good enough debater/convincing enough to get people that have shown you support all game to vote for you. The longer you stay alive, the scummier you seem, so while I feel you and AU and approx. the same read right now, I'm a bit more comfortable voting him today than you. If you really want, I can lay out my full case against you, too, though. I dunno, its hard to explain. His recent posting reeks of...desperation? But basically my whole scumread on him was based on his Day 1 actions, and there's virtually nothing since then that really feels scummy. I haven't completely dismissed him, but for now I'm not voting for him. As far as my percentages changing, my reads were from Day1+Night1+Day2+half of Night2. Now I've been playing for another Half of Night2+Day3+Night3+Day4. There's basically double the information now. | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
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Hopeless1der
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Hopeless1der
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
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Hopeless1der
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Hopeless1der
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
@ghost: Awesome. Thanks for all your effort, and to Toast and GM. | ||
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Hopeless1der
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