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On July 01 2012 06:27 AmericanUmlaut wrote:Show nested quote +On July 01 2012 06:25 JingleHell wrote:
Well, I was right. Analfetus was innocent. GG.nore, my friend.
Perhaps we should contemplate who looks shady now, in light of the new information. I think we should save discussion for morning. Posting our thoughts during the night just gives the PBUs more information to consider when picking their night hit.
They already have us over a barrel. Besides, if it goes anything like the day did, they're probably too busy laughing in /r/ablmafia about the incompetent Nazi modding happening.
I mean, let's face it, most of the discussion sounded like a Failsafe blog.
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Promethelax, go back to the case you and I made against Hopeless.
He placed his vote on Fencer (who has been under vague suspicion quite a bit, including by the dearly departed), but only after the vote on Anacletus was nearly secured, and ended the day as the ONLY vote on Fencer.
That ties in to the case we were already making about his scummy play. What do you think?
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On July 01 2012 08:03 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On July 01 2012 07:59 JingleHell wrote:
Promethelax, go back to the case you and I made against Hopeless.
He placed his vote on Fencer (who has been under vague suspicion quite a bit, including by the dearly departed), but only after the vote on Anacletus was nearly secured, and ended the day as the ONLY vote on Fencer.
That ties in to the case we were already making about his scummy play. What do you think? I'll go back and look at it, it isn't fair to you to call it our case though. I noticed and mentioned the stupid play, you made a real case. I would urge you to go back and re-read my case on Fencer, I think it is even stronger now that Anacletus has flipped green. I'll post my thoughts about the wonder when I have re-read your case and his filter.
I still think Fencer is scummy, too, which is why I mentioned the Hopeless vote on him, as it makes one of them look less scummy if the other flips, but was done in a way that it didn't overcommit the vote, either.
However, if I have to take two people who are similarly scummy, I'm going to end up dropping a vote on the one who seems more dangerous, which currently feels like Hopeless.
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On July 01 2012 08:07 Myles wrote:^ Show nested quote +On July 01 2012 06:27 AmericanUmlaut wrote:On July 01 2012 06:25 JingleHell wrote:
Well, I was right. Analfetus was innocent. GG.nore, my friend.
Perhaps we should contemplate who looks shady now, in light of the new information. I think we should save discussion for morning. Posting our thoughts during the night just gives the PBUs more information to consider when picking their night hit. Because of what this guy wrote.
Oooh, look who deigns to "contribute".
Who's worried about it? For one, it's N1, they can't have rolechecked yet if they have a checker. For two, regardless of when we talk, there's two options without them having a check yet. They can either shoot someone to shut them up, or shoot someone so we think they wanted them shut up.
We won't know which it was either way, so why sweat it?
The scum have a very huge lead on information at this point. We win based on getting perceptions and communicating, along with superior numbers. We can meta-game ourselves to the point of manic paranoia, or we can do what needs to be done and nail these scum to the wall.
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On July 01 2012 08:16 Myles wrote:
Well then I guess I'll post my thoughts.
First I think we should look at bandwagoners. I’m sure I’m under suspicion, or more so than before since I got the eye from some posters, for being part of the lynching, but I hope I explained my position enough that I get some BotD. A number of other people barely explained themselves at all before voting.
Blind-rawr hopped on the bandwagon without much discussion and voted pretty early, but his subsequent posts explained his position.
Intact did pretty much the same, just with a fewer number of posts.
Fencer is tied at the top for most suspicions now imo. His overall behavior, combined with his hopping on the bandwagon really early, hopping off when he got some attention, then hopping back on seems really scummy.
BobTheLob is right there with him. Lurker who used the same arguments as Fencer, hopped on the bandwagon with no reasoning, and the few posts he has made contributed nothing.
The others who voted for Anacletus seem like they had a reasonable position. And while I can’t say we know for sure that those who didn’t vote for him are town, I think it’s really likely because the FoS went so quickly on Anacletus . He didn’t do much to convince us of his innocence, so if they were PBUs it’d be some serious metagaming to start backing off and potentially drawing attention when there was so much support.
When the vote was secured on a townie, or close to it, why WOULD scum be voting on Anacletus? Maybe some did, but certainly not all of them.
In fact, given your general level of suspicious behavior, the fact that you tried to get people to stop posting at night while Hopeless was under the radar, and your conspicuous lack of discussion on my read of Hopeless, I'm really starting to think you're scummy.
And since you pointed at Fencer as top on suspicion, I'm dropping him to a notch below Hopeless on my Scum-o-meter.
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EBWOP: Yes, I know you can point out that I didn't end the day on Anacletus either. I'm going to let my reasoning I did throughout the day stand for itself on that, and hope my discussion and logic can stand on their own two legs.
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Promethelax: A tip, hit refresh before posting, and if there's a new page, copy, go to it, and paste into the box. Then you can update your post for the latest post.
Since I answered those questions already. I'm currently looking at Hopeless, Myles, and Fencer.
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On July 01 2012 08:27 Myles wrote:Show nested quote +On July 01 2012 08:20 JingleHell wrote:On July 01 2012 08:16 Myles wrote:
Well then I guess I'll post my thoughts.
First I think we should look at bandwagoners. I’m sure I’m under suspicion, or more so than before since I got the eye from some posters, for being part of the lynching, but I hope I explained my position enough that I get some BotD. A number of other people barely explained themselves at all before voting.
Blind-rawr hopped on the bandwagon without much discussion and voted pretty early, but his subsequent posts explained his position.
Intact did pretty much the same, just with a fewer number of posts.
Fencer is tied at the top for most suspicions now imo. His overall behavior, combined with his hopping on the bandwagon really early, hopping off when he got some attention, then hopping back on seems really scummy.
BobTheLob is right there with him. Lurker who used the same arguments as Fencer, hopped on the bandwagon with no reasoning, and the few posts he has made contributed nothing.
The others who voted for Anacletus seem like they had a reasonable position. And while I can’t say we know for sure that those who didn’t vote for him are town, I think it’s really likely because the FoS went so quickly on Anacletus . He didn’t do much to convince us of his innocence, so if they were PBUs it’d be some serious metagaming to start backing off and potentially drawing attention when there was so much support.
When the vote was secured on a townie, or close to it, why WOULD scum be voting on Anacletus? Maybe some did, but certainly not all of them. In fact, given your general level of suspicious behavior, the fact that you tried to get people to stop posting at night while Hopeless was under the radar, and your conspicuous lack of discussion on my read of Hopeless, I'm really starting to think you're scummy. And since you pointed at Fencer as top on suspicion, I'm dropping him to a notch below Hopeless on my Scum-o-meter. I think the scum would keep on Anecletus to not draw attention to themselves and keep the heat on him. I would agree that is possible one didn't vote for him, I just don't just have a heavy scum read on any of you. I talked about your read of Hopeless when AmericanUmlaut asked me about it, and AmericanUmlaut suggested we not post at night and I thought his reasoning was valid.
You mean when you said next to nothing, dragged it over a couple of paragraphs, and defended Hopeless? That's convincing me you're not scum.
On July 01 2012 04:05 Myles wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On July 01 2012 03:58 AmericanUmlaut wrote:Show nested quote +On July 01 2012 03:53 Myles wrote:
OK, considering we have just over 3 hours left, I'm going to cast my vote for Anacletus. After barely contributing, then barely defending himself, he's pretty much disappeared completely. While not the most damning of evidence, it certainly seems scummy to me since a good way to draw attention from yourself is to lay low and let other people take heat - you know, out of sight out of mind.
Fencer is suspicious, but after looking through all his posts some more, seems more newbish than scum. I'm certainly not going to turn a blind eye, but I'll give him the BotD for now.
And despite other people not seeming to care, BobTheLob is quite suspicious to me. Lurker extraordinaire and his last post doesn't elicit much confidence imo.
##Vote Analectus What is your opinion on JH's read on hopeless1der? Why do you feel that Anacletus is a scummier read? I was suspicious of JH at first because of the seemingly chaotic way he accusing people deciding policy, but I agree now that it was just to get people talking so we could go somewhere rather than seriously accusing people. Hopeless seems like he's trying to make the best decision with the information we have. I agree that lynching just for information is bad if we have nothing else to go on, but given that we have a couple suspects, we should definitely be lynching one of them since relying on scum to slip up and make it obvious seems very unlikely at this point.
That wasn't "discussion".
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On July 01 2012 08:44 Myles wrote:
Well, you're reasoning of hopeless being suspicious because his voting someone else after Anacletus was all but secured is something I don't agree with. I don't think that's much to go one because Fencer revealed himself to be pretty scummy with his spammy offtopic posts and haphazard voting. I mean, you basically did the same thing by putting an early FoS on Anacletus then changing to focus once other people jumped in. I don't think something like that is very damning.
If you're only going to answer the smallest part of the reasoning, in defense of another person, you're not going to help your own case. This post is clutter at best, and incredibly scummy at worst.
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On July 01 2012 09:42 BobTheLob wrote:Show nested quote +On July 01 2012 09:37 Promethelax wrote:On July 01 2012 09:03 BobTheLob wrote:
Okay, I've lurked this entire game and I'm starting to realize that that is a bad idea, now on the topic of reads: iamperfection and I am very fucking suspicious We're screwed by nature of our habits. See lurking
People are bandwagoning onto fencer now I agree he was acting odd but it's not conclusive
Jingle and Promethelax are working together quite well and the rest of us are just following them. They seem to have alot of the same ideas... paying attention to them
Myles hasn't posted to little or to much, he's playing it super safe. Not a clue
Blind is, more or less in the same boat as me albeit a bit less so. See above
AmericanUmlaut is doing quite well all his moves are well thought out but we still have no idea what side he's on could be one could be the other. No idea for him either
Hopeless1der also seems to be the victim of a bit of bandwagoning but he seems pretty cool I'm thinking he's a town but hey I could be wrong
Lastly Intact has been promoting conversation since the game began but seems to be in the same boat as me and perfection in that he hasn't posted enough. also not posting enough but I don't know
That's all I got, keeping in mind that we have only one death so far and the night is going to be the most important bit so far because as Jingle said, the scum will try to set someone up
Do games normally move this pace or faster/slower?
Can we talk about the piece that I bolded and put in italics? You seriously think the two most active townies are scum? If we were scum this game would be over. There is no one else in town who is constantly building cases and working to promote a town agenda anywhere near as much as me or JH. You seriously are worried because we have simlar pro town mentalities? Yes I am. You to are the most active right now and as I said, we're ALL following what you guys are doing. I didn't say you were scum I said that it'd odd that you two right out of the gate are helping each other and building on what the other said.
Actually, we've sparred back and forth a bit, too, we voted different directions on D1. We see similar things and build off of eachother's cases because out of everyone here, we're the only ones that aren't taking individual posts and comparing them to a newbie guide.
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EBWOP, also, we're both taking a gamble this way, because if one of us has mis-read the other at this point, we're likely tied together for a double lynch. In a town like this, where there's little productive activity and heavy dice rolls, there would be no rational reason to take a risk like that if either of us was scum.
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On July 01 2012 10:12 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On July 01 2012 09:45 JingleHell wrote:On July 01 2012 09:42 BobTheLob wrote:On July 01 2012 09:37 Promethelax wrote:On July 01 2012 09:03 BobTheLob wrote:
Okay, I've lurked this entire game and I'm starting to realize that that is a bad idea, now on the topic of reads: iamperfection and I am very fucking suspicious We're screwed by nature of our habits. See lurking
People are bandwagoning onto fencer now I agree he was acting odd but it's not conclusive
Jingle and Promethelax are working together quite well and the rest of us are just following them. They seem to have alot of the same ideas... paying attention to them
Myles hasn't posted to little or to much, he's playing it super safe. Not a clue
Blind is, more or less in the same boat as me albeit a bit less so. See above
AmericanUmlaut is doing quite well all his moves are well thought out but we still have no idea what side he's on could be one could be the other. No idea for him either
Hopeless1der also seems to be the victim of a bit of bandwagoning but he seems pretty cool I'm thinking he's a town but hey I could be wrong
Lastly Intact has been promoting conversation since the game began but seems to be in the same boat as me and perfection in that he hasn't posted enough. also not posting enough but I don't know
That's all I got, keeping in mind that we have only one death so far and the night is going to be the most important bit so far because as Jingle said, the scum will try to set someone up
Do games normally move this pace or faster/slower?
Can we talk about the piece that I bolded and put in italics? You seriously think the two most active townies are scum? If we were scum this game would be over. There is no one else in town who is constantly building cases and working to promote a town agenda anywhere near as much as me or JH. You seriously are worried because we have simlar pro town mentalities? Yes I am. You to are the most active right now and as I said, we're ALL following what you guys are doing. I didn't say you were scum I said that it'd odd that you two right out of the gate are helping each other and building on what the other said. Actually, we've sparred back and forth a bit, too, we voted different directions on D1. We see similar things and build off of eachother's cases because out of everyone here, we're the only ones that aren't taking individual posts and comparing them to a newbie guide. Are you using a guide? I've been working based off of what I have read in other mafia threads, I did a bit of research before playing since I was scared as hell. I don't really get what you mean about how we'd be a double lynch. I have trouble seeing why after I flipped green or you flipped green anyone would lynch the other one. I you flip red I guess I will look bad though, I guess I'll hope to hell that I'm right about you and that you are one of us.
I was saying that if we were scum, tying ourselves together for no reason would be suicidal.
I read the guides, and then threw out everything I read except for the mentality type stuff, because frankly, it's all opinions on the best way to metagame other than that, which is just a headache waiting to happen.
I know I'm town, and I'm reasonably confident you are. What do you think of Myles in light of his jumping to defend Hopeless after we started looking at a case against him?
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On July 01 2012 10:18 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On July 01 2012 10:15 JingleHell wrote:On July 01 2012 10:12 Promethelax wrote:On July 01 2012 09:45 JingleHell wrote:On July 01 2012 09:42 BobTheLob wrote:On July 01 2012 09:37 Promethelax wrote:On July 01 2012 09:03 BobTheLob wrote:
Okay, I've lurked this entire game and I'm starting to realize that that is a bad idea, now on the topic of reads: iamperfection and I am very fucking suspicious We're screwed by nature of our habits. See lurking
People are bandwagoning onto fencer now I agree he was acting odd but it's not conclusive
Jingle and Promethelax are working together quite well and the rest of us are just following them. They seem to have alot of the same ideas... paying attention to them
Myles hasn't posted to little or to much, he's playing it super safe. Not a clue
Blind is, more or less in the same boat as me albeit a bit less so. See above
AmericanUmlaut is doing quite well all his moves are well thought out but we still have no idea what side he's on could be one could be the other. No idea for him either
Hopeless1der also seems to be the victim of a bit of bandwagoning but he seems pretty cool I'm thinking he's a town but hey I could be wrong
Lastly Intact has been promoting conversation since the game began but seems to be in the same boat as me and perfection in that he hasn't posted enough. also not posting enough but I don't know
That's all I got, keeping in mind that we have only one death so far and the night is going to be the most important bit so far because as Jingle said, the scum will try to set someone up
Do games normally move this pace or faster/slower?
Can we talk about the piece that I bolded and put in italics? You seriously think the two most active townies are scum? If we were scum this game would be over. There is no one else in town who is constantly building cases and working to promote a town agenda anywhere near as much as me or JH. You seriously are worried because we have simlar pro town mentalities? Yes I am. You to are the most active right now and as I said, we're ALL following what you guys are doing. I didn't say you were scum I said that it'd odd that you two right out of the gate are helping each other and building on what the other said. Actually, we've sparred back and forth a bit, too, we voted different directions on D1. We see similar things and build off of eachother's cases because out of everyone here, we're the only ones that aren't taking individual posts and comparing them to a newbie guide. Are you using a guide? I've been working based off of what I have read in other mafia threads, I did a bit of research before playing since I was scared as hell. I don't really get what you mean about how we'd be a double lynch. I have trouble seeing why after I flipped green or you flipped green anyone would lynch the other one. I you flip red I guess I will look bad though, I guess I'll hope to hell that I'm right about you and that you are one of us. I was saying that if we were scum, tying ourselves together for no reason would be suicidal. I read the guides, and then threw out everything I read except for the mentality type stuff, because frankly, it's all opinions on the best way to metagame other than that, which is just a headache waiting to happen. I know I'm town, and I'm reasonably confident you are. What do you think of Myles in light of his jumping to defend Hopeless after we started looking at a case against him? oh, okay that makes a lot more sense. I don't like him but I'm still looking into him, maybe its awful town play? I'm not sure I'm still building the case. I also think I'll just re-link my Fencer case since he is still scummy. Why do you think Bob chose to come out of the woodwork now? He posted that huge thing with no reads in it and a lot of words. I'd love your opinion.
Right now I'm feeling "towny scared out of shell". It's kind of like Anacletus' early posts, it's useless, but it feels almost too useless to be intentional.
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Yeah, I think Myles is looking pretty reasonable right now, and assuming he flips red, Hopeless, after Myles overcomitted to defending him.
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On July 01 2012 13:46 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On July 01 2012 09:33 Promethelax wrote:
SNIP
Let's look at his conclusion: it is bad to have a no lynch because if we kill of a town statistics suggests our next random lynch will be more likely to hit scum. Remember before this game started I said I was sorry if I was dumber than two rocks making love? I now present you with one of the two rocks required. Hopeless is either scum or playing an anti-town game because he has no idea what he is doing. Since the rest of us newbs figured it out I would guess it is the former rather than the latter.
You've lost me Promethelax. My statement pertained to No Lynch and Mislynch (intentional or otherwise). Are you saying No Lynch is preferable? Because I'm saying Mislynch is preferable. Oh wait, when you cast your vote: + Show Spoiler +On June 30 2012 22:19 Promethelax wrote:
Well this is obnoxious, I think Anaacletus is scummy but I think Fencer is more scummy, however I will be at work when the voting ends and this is my last minute in this thread for this day cycle, since I think a no lynch is really bad for us I am going to switch my vote to Anacletus, I hope that if he flips town you all will look at my Fencer case, he really does look more scummy to me.
I'm putting the hammer on Anacletus because we need a lynch and I won't be here to convince people that we should get Fencer, I would leave my vote on Fencer if I thought I could make the rest of you realize that he is scum but since you seem to want to go for the second reddest person I will do that as well to ensure a lynch.
I hope that if we are wrong and Anacletus is town you will all take a second look at my case on Fencer, if Anacletus is town Fencer is even more likely to be scum.
@Intact: If Anacletus flips scum and you feel the need to go after me I can't stop you, you should go after Fencer but if you don't do that you should go after him on day three after I flip green (all this assuming I live through the next two nights which I probably won't without medic protection).
##Unvote: Fencer710
##Vote: Anacletus
Is there any way to make sure I don't have to do this in the future since I won't be around for the voting deadline? i.e. would it be possible to PM one of you to say my preferences in terms of my vote. That a lynch is better than a no lynch and a lynch on Fenccer is better than a lynch on Anacletus and so on. I want my vote to count but I also have to make it about 12 hours before the deadline which really messes with me, thanks. Your actions agree with my conclusion, whether you agree with the deduction itself or not. My 'non-committal' posts (at least towards Anacletus) were in fact a good read by me to identify someone being bandwagoned for a weak case. I can't decide if you and JH tunneling me so far is actually scummy or not, but don't for one goddamn second think I don't know what I'm doing.
If you start basing your defense off an attack, it looks like an OMGUS. You should start by defending points against yourself first, then, if you feel there's a case, turn it around second.
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Spectator man, copy/paste just ain't working out.
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On July 10 2012 17:28 AmericanUmlaut wrote:From the obs QT: Show nested quote +Are you kidding? If anyone picks up on it, it's gold. All they need to do is look at the people who were already looking scummy, who tried to make a case against Fencar.
You know, at least two of my huge picks being in on that? The ones who suddenly tried to look like town leaders after my inconvenience was silenced?
##Vote Myles
##Vote Hopeless1der Killing JingleHell was a horrible mistake.
Eh, dying may have focused my tunnel vision just a bit. It's impossible to say at this point, without being clouded by hindsight, what I would have done had I still been in.
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EPT
