On June 27 2012 02:19 marvellosity wrote:
I think risk nuke is town
I think risk nuke is town
Can you elaborate on this? I don't see much towniness between where you said you were having trouble reading him to this position.
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Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
On June 27 2012 02:19 marvellosity wrote: I think risk nuke is town Can you elaborate on this? I don't see much towniness between where you said you were having trouble reading him to this position. | ||
Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
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Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
Like, when you said this: On June 26 2012 22:44 marvellosity wrote: I'm fairly sure I know what risk's explanation is, but I want to hear it from him. xsksc, can you work out what it might be? What were you expecting? | ||
Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
On June 27 2012 04:36 marvellosity wrote: I thought I'd explained this. I had a scumread on you prior to our big argument but took that argument as a town tell. Having had another look at LI I decided it could no longer be a town tell. Also Radfield and I, at the start of Redux, talked about WoF and his case on you. He told me that it wasn't so much his case that made him truly believe you were scum, but your response to it. It's funny because in WoF you originally made a joke to Radfield about it (basically your whole case is just a gut read) and then you backed down from it and said (paraphrasing) "lol only joking I'll answer your case properly later". The similarities are striking. VE's biggest scum-tell in WoF (from the guy who shot him in the face) was his lack of caring towards who got lynched. I think this game he clearly cares (see his anger directed at prplhz and his questioning of Mattchew's vote on rastaban). | ||
Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
I honestly don't know what to think about marv right now. It's illogical for either scum or town to be in the situation he's in right now. If he's scum, like prplhz said, he had to have known that he was likely to lose the 1-on-1 with VE by bringing up his case again today, and he'd be taking a huge gamble that a fake claim would save him. If he's town, we just have to believe that he was dumb and/or cocky enough to not answer a couple questions straight up... and that he actually believes VE is scummy.... But again, scum would want to push easy lynches, not someone who everyone else thinks is town. Like, it's bad town play but it's got to be even worse scum play. | ||
Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
On June 27 2012 07:29 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Vote Count - 5 Hours to go risk.nuke (0): Zephirdd (RIP) (0): rastaban (1): xsksc VisceraEyes (0): marvellosity (4): VisceraEyes, Probulous, Shraft, Mattchew xsksc (1): risk.nuke Shraft (1): prplhz Mattchew (1): Rastaban Not voted (2): Snarfs, marvellosity This is wrong. My vote is currently on marv. | ||
Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
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Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
On June 27 2012 08:59 marvellosity wrote: Show nested quote + On June 27 2012 08:45 Snarfs wrote: I have just under an hour until I have to leave work to head to a jazz fest. concert and I won't be back from then until after the deadline so I need to know if we're switching votes pretty fast here. I honestly don't know what to think about marv right now. It's illogical for either scum or town to be in the situation he's in right now. If he's scum, like prplhz said, he had to have known that he was likely to lose the 1-on-1 with VE by bringing up his case again today, and he'd be taking a huge gamble that a fake claim would save him. If he's town, we just have to believe that he was dumb and/or cocky enough to not answer a couple questions straight up... and that he actually believes VE is scummy.... But again, scum would want to push easy lynches, not someone who everyone else thinks is town. Like, it's bad town play but it's got to be even worse scum play. Snarfs, as town or scum the fact is I got embroiled by my own arrogance/bad play day 1 with not answering the questions. Those are the common things. Your only other thing you mention there about if I'm town is that I think someone you have a strong town read on is scum. Is that really so hard to believe? But if I'm scum you have to accept that I went after VE originally, and having dropped it, I then fucking did it again. That is just INSANE. Absolutely insane. And that's ignoring my meta defence which I won't restate but nonetheless exists. I know it's insane, I'm just debating whether I'm sure enough that you're not insane - and that the rest of the town can come to a similar conclusion - that I'd prefer a no lynch (which I've stated in the past usually favors scum because scum fucking love denying information) since that's what seems pretty damn likely if we don't lynch you. | ||
Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
In the hopes that my vote is useful: ##Unvote ##Vote Mattchew I can add some more explanation why Mattchew over risk.nuke tonight when I get home but that's my general feeling right now. | ||
Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
June 27 2012 17:39 GMT
#1173
It was mainly these two things that really stood out for me: a) His asking marv a question at the beginning, then not checking back 7 minutes later to see the answer nor comment seemed like it was a really easy way to fake a contribution. b) The way he voted when he made his group of cases. If marv was one of his primary targets and marv was the clear vote leader, why vote rastaban? He claims that rastaban was his strongest scum read and he was willing to switch to marv, but he made it quite clear that he was almost certain marv was SK: On June 26 2012 12:05 Mattchew wrote: [--snip--] I actually should maybe color Marv black, because I think his play just feels very off. I think I lean him being the SK more than I do him being scum. Either way he eventually needs a noose. His filter is long and fluffy. A ton of arguing with VE but even more deflecting of actual answers... instead he resorts to inane arguments full of WIFOM and fallacys, like in all these filter enhancing posts. Can someone pick me out anything pro-town from these? [--snip--] "Either way he eventually needs a noose." That doesn't sound like someone on the fence to me. marv was clearly the more likely lynch and it would have made more sense to vote with others in order to ensure your reads are lynched. As for risk.nuke, my read isn't as strong: I really disliked how he didn't seem to care if marv shot VE. Especially after he said he was leaning slightly scum on marv for not seeing how townie VE could be. risk.nuke gives me this sense of not really caring who gets lynched or who gets shot, which has me leaning SK on him. risk, why you were willing to let marv shoot VE? Do you think VE is scum? | ||
Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
June 27 2012 18:15 GMT
#1176
How does that compare to your seeming lack of care about what marv's answer to your own question was? Hell, you claimed not to like his answer and that he was grasping at straws, and then you never pushed him further, you switched to MrZ and rastaban... | ||
Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
June 27 2012 22:57 GMT
#1290
##Vote Mattchew I think this is an obvious lynch today. Both Probulous and VE were suspicious of him and it's just reaffirming my beliefs. I'm going to read over the thread again tonight after work and try to get my other reads down. Since there were two RB's night 1, unless someone else comes in and claims another RB risk.nuke is clear. Also, SK had to be shooting for scum last night since he can't win with all scum left - I assume that means he shot xsksc so we're looking for someone who was probably showing suspicions of him (Mattchew and risk.nuke immediately come to mind, again another point against Matt). | ||
Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
June 27 2012 23:01 GMT
#1292
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Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
June 27 2012 23:16 GMT
#1295
So if we lynch SK we lose, right? ##Unvote I definitely need to think about this more. Mattchew's probably our best bet for anti-town but I'm not so positive he's mafia over SK. | ||
Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
June 27 2012 23:22 GMT
#1300
On June 28 2012 08:17 marvellosity wrote: Snarfs, I trust your judgement. Make your reads and I will discuss them with you. But you pretty much need to pin the entire team and then choose the SK between them somehow. I appreciate the confidence, but we should both come up with our own reads separately and then compare. Just imagine we're back in PYP. I think we soundboarded well off each other there and we can do it again here. | ||
Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
June 27 2012 23:28 GMT
#1302
Besides, how can you list risk as SK if he had to be faking an RB claim? | ||
Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
June 27 2012 23:39 GMT
#1311
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Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
June 28 2012 07:36 GMT
#1323
Why I don't think he's mafia (and what gave me a townie vibe on him): - He has contributed to scum hunting and has not been afraid to push his reads (see his pushes against marvellosity, zephirdd, risk.nuke, and most recently, rastaban) - His thought processes have been clear and easy to follow and he consistently responded well to people's cases against him - He genuinely appears interested in lynching scum over townies. Why I think he's SK: - The biggest tell for me is that he got overly emotional in his case against risk.nuke after the flip when it was revealed that there was no deaths: Compare his attack against risk.nuke: On June 25 2012 10:30 Shraft wrote: risk.nuke you need to step up your game. Wanting to lynch lurers and then lurking hard yourself makes you look bad. On top of that your only substantial post is the one where you defend yourself (you never followed up on that post either, despite saying that you would). Why would you even bother defending that hard when nobody agreed with his case anyway? You ask for the other lurkers to share their reads and to contribute, but you do nothing of the kind yourself. Aside from lurkers, you're only suspicious of rastaban (but you haven't really shared much thought on him either, it looks more like OMGUS to me). And what the fuck is this? Show nested quote + On June 25 2012 07:51 risk.nuke wrote: Rastaban if you really are townie (which I don't think you are) you dodged a lynch last night and seeing how we mislynched a townie that makes the situation even worse for you. My point is if you don't want to die soon you should do something more usefull then dumb shit tunneling. He would've tried to dodge the lynch regardless of his alignment, why do you act as if it is a scum tell? With his one against zephirdd just a day before: On June 24 2012 09:01 Shraft wrote: Show nested quote + On June 24 2012 05:48 Zephirdd wrote: On June 24 2012 03:29 Shraft wrote: On June 24 2012 03:17 Zephirdd wrote: On June 23 2012 18:08 marvellosity wrote: I'm not sure how you can play mafia Zeph if it feels fabricated to you. It means you have no pulse at all on the psychology and emotion in a game, and therefore I really don't know how you can even try to play successfully :/ AtE much? On June 24 2012 01:49 risk.nuke wrote: rastaban zephirdd and zentor, what are your thoughts on eachother? rastaban sounds like town with bad cases. Zentor sounds trollish and uninterested, usually a signal of a VT(because VT is indeed an uninteresting role) or a scum(with the intention of creating confusion in the thread and wasting discussion). IMO, Zentor sounds like a good day 1 lynch atm. ##Vote MrZentor Can you explain why rastaban sounds like town? Because when I looked at Bang Bang I didn't really see any similarities with his play in this game. At least no similarities that you wouldn't expect from the same player regardless of alignment, anyway. How did you go from thinking that rastaban was your best scum read to thinking that he is town? All you said was this: On June 23 2012 04:47 Zephirdd wrote: On June 23 2012 04:25 slOosh wrote: Rastaban looks townish to me; the main case against him right now looks like "he is playing bad", rather than "he is playing like scum". Something in the back of my mind is still clicking everytime I read Snarfs. Can you cool cats reread his last post and tell me your thoughts? It would be great to get some discussion particularly from marv, prplhz and risk.nuke. And as for now here will be my preliminary vote to hold me accountable. ##Vote: Snarfs All I read from his last post is "there is no difference between Zentor and risk.nuke". The only way this would be a scum tell if risk was scum. idk, snarfs looks null to me. Well, the most glaring scum tell so far(for me) is rastaban, but if you think about it he's just playing as his town meta(based on bang bang) and all he's done is a bad case, not a scummy case. Since he is "the most glaring scum tell so far" for you, you must've surely seen some clear signs pointing toward him being town when you read Bang Bang Mafia for you to believe that he is town. Maybe I should have explained it better. I said it was "the most glaring scum tell" because there wasn't anything else at the time. In the same post, I say that it's probably just a bad case. From what I've read, he is looking similar to his BangBang2 meta. similar. This much I already get. What I am interested in is what made you jump from glaring scum tell to town. If it's a meta argument it must be something very indicative so that you can be sure of his alignment, right? I mean, how can you be so sure of him being town just because of some similarities? I believe that every player acts in a (somewhat) similar way in every game, regardless of alignment. I'd like you to elaborate more on what made you think rastaban is town, if you please. Something more specific than just the general "there are some similarities". It just seems so much angrier against risk.nuke. We would expect him to be angry because he's probably thinking at this time that mafia KP was blocked and his KP didn't go through because he made a stupid mistake of emailing the wrong mod. Mafia in that situation though, would probably just assume that their KP had been jailed. Also, looking at the night 1 kill: Night 1: slOosh + zephirdd. zephirdd was looking scummy and Shraft was expressing his suspicions of zephirdd: On June 24 2012 05:10 Shraft wrote: @prplhz Good post. I am growing suspicious of [zephirdd] as well. That's why I questioned him here. I don't know if we have enough time or enough people to lynch him, but I think I'd rather have him lynched than rastaban or Zentor. Conclusion: Shraft SK Which leaves us with: rastaban, Mattchew, and prplhz I have to agree with Shraft in that rastaban has looked the scummiest of them all and I'm pissed off at myself for not pushing that read harder earlier in the game. Also one more thing to notice in his giant fluffy post at the beginning of the game is the comparison to Bang Bang mafia. Notice in Bang Bang how short and to the point it is: On June 11 2012 22:33 rastaban wrote: While I agree that Toad's plan was inherently flawed, I think there were some good points.. Millers should claim, and we should force them to shoot. Later we can sort out any false claims etc... but it gets us started in the right direction. I agree there could be more than 1 miller so the self shooting is a bad thing and will have us ending up with 2 wasted lynches. I am worried that our day 1 shot is going to happen within 5 minutes of daytime as people try to make a point to get themselves remembered for shooting X as soon as the game started for teh LOLz. Lets step away from this, while anyone can kill I think we need to at least start off with in-thread voting before the shot is fired, and if we can have the millers doing it until they have all shot so much the better. If we can get the miller claims into the open (assuming there are some) and then have them do our designated shooting for us for the first cycle or two we not only gain some information on them, but also on the discussion about who they should be shooting. Now compare that with his opening this game: On June 22 2012 16:46 rastaban wrote: Just caught up on what is the "haps", here are my thoughts. First, I agree with the Millers claim day one, and policy lynching all Millers after today. In a game where they are self aware it is a huge boon for town. The benefits far out way the negative of less people with possible blue roles. First and most importantly it guarantees our checks. Detectives know any red checks from non-mafia get lynched, since sanity isn't an issue in this game. Any Mafia will always claim miller if checked and we don't force a day 1 reveal. It will cause a lot of confusion, it is best to eliminate this by forcing day one claims. It also forces Mafia's hand, if they want to claim they have to do it now before they are in too much water. This is hard for mafia to do, they don't want to be scrutinized and that is why they claim miller as a last resort. While it is argued that Millers make it easier to snipe blues it also makes our blues more effective. Look at Bang Bang where I, as a doctor, pushed strongly for a miller claim night one. Second, the focus of Marv makes me think of karma after seeing him do it to Gonzaw in our last game together. We need to be careful with tunneling though, when you push someone so hard day1, they will often come across as scum no matter what since the only content you have is them trying to defend themselves against accusations. He could be scum but I just want to say that we need to be cautious, as I feel the case against him is a bit biased. Now his day 1 "meta" is to spam 1 liners so I personally wouldn't mind him getting lynched if there isn't a better candidate but I feel like there is too much discussion on him this early in our day. Remember we have 48 hours, half that time hasn't even passed yet so I don't like the band wagoning on Marv so quickly. That said I have a hard time getting anything from his filter right now. Some people analyze best when their quarry is under pressure but for me that introduces too many variables so I like to read posts where they aren't defending themselves. So marv would you mind answering the original question ( as leading as it may be) about what you feel are your tells, and second who do you feel is most likely scum? The first paragraph in either says exactly the same thing and look how much he's fluffed it up. It's such an obvious difference. marv, what do you think of my assessment of Shraft's play? And what about risk.nuke vs rastaban? I think this makes more sense than from a risk.nuke is scum fake-claiming RB standpoint. ##Vote rastaban | ||
Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
June 28 2012 18:10 GMT
#1394
But if rastaban is pushing prplhz because he thinks he's the SK then that would make either Shraft or risk.nuke scum and Shraft is pushing rastaban so that would either be a tricky bus or risk.nuke is scum. Or rastaban is now busing prplhz because mafia know they have expendable members. Or rastaban is town which means risk.nuke is scum and he really is faking the claim. There are some fucked up mind games going on here :| | ||
Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
June 28 2012 18:44 GMT
#1402
On June 29 2012 03:32 marvellosity wrote: rastaban: a tidbit for you to consider. Post your thoughts as you please. When Snarfs voted for Mattchew yesterday, he was leaving the thread and it seemed like there was zero danger of Mattchew getting lynched. Except I voted Mattchew over risk.nuke in part because I felt he had a better chance of being lynched than risk did :/ - VE was willing to switch to either Mattchew or risk.nuke - Could have gone either way - Probulous had said he wasn't going to vote for you - Could maybe have gone either way - I thought for sure prplhz was going to vote Mattchew (him and risk.nuke were on a similar page about you) - risk.nuke obviously wasn't going to vote for either himself or you - rastaban was more willing at that point to vote Mattchew than risk.nuke I mean, go back and read that entire section. People were going to kill Mattchew and I would have been absolutely more pleased with that than the no lynch that VE caused. | ||
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