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Here is some food for thought on Milton:
Secondly, she gains town cred for appearing aggressive even if she doesn't get the lynch. It seems like a win/win scenario for scum unless of course someone makes the analysis I'm making now. Milton seems focused on how I get town cred for getting aggressive. Town cred is something that scum think of a lot but town don't really care about. Notice how Milton is trying to give himself credibility with the last sentence for pointing out the possible scum-motivation behind my posts.
+ Show Spoiler +Miltonkram: roflwaffles55 I'm suspicious of this guy based on two of his posts. First one is a response to s0Lstice/sciberbia: Show nested quote + Sure!
When it comes to lynching lurkers I would agree in that it shouldn't be the focus, and would prefer to lynch someone acting scummy day 1.
As to NL, I am firmly against it and if we can't get a clear majority on scummy-acting folks then we should at least lynch a lurker, especially on D1 and 2.
Notice the eager to please tone of his post. I'm looking at it as a possible scumslip. His 2nd suspicious post: Show nested quote + I agree that I may have been a bit too aggressive right off the bat, but I implore you to look at my arguments and his, and take more from it then just an overzealous attempt on my part.
##unvote alan133
There you go, I'm still suspicious, but I may have underestimated the significance of a vote.
Notice how self-conscious he is in this post, especially in that last line. I realize that several players weren't interested in his case, but there is absolutely no harm in keeping pressure on a player until they give you a satisfactory defense. Essentially he backs down from his pressure based on a tiny reprimand from Crossfire. It seems like he's trying to keep himself out of the spotlight. roflwaffle: You've defeated yourself in your own argument against me, with the explanation as to why I backed down on alan133. I backed down because I hadn't received any support towards my case. You also defeated yourself by saying that I'm trying to keep myself out of the spotlight, if I wanted that, I wouldn't have been the third person to post a case, let alone one I knew would net me a bunch of flak.
I made the case to put pressure on someone that was lacking any real opinion, whether because he felt that there wasn't enough data to form one, or because he was hiding from the spotlight himself.
The evidence or suspicions that you have brought up can be answered so easily I'm not sure why you didn't come up with them yourself.
Miltonkram: @ roflwaffles Ok, I see what you're saying. I thought you were completely backing off of alan even though you've made a decent case against him. I still don't like the fact that you took your vote off of him based on a wrist-slap from Crossfire, but I guess I misunderstood your intent. Since you're still pursuing your case on alan the unvote seems less scummy.
As far as alan133 is concerned I think you may have something. He's put very little pressure on anyone. When he does pressure he seems wishy-washy as hell.
Miltonkram had a little back and forth between himself and roflwaffle. Notice how easily roflwaffle deflects Milton's case against him, as if the arguments Milton made were meant to be deflected. Now notice how milton just gives him the green light.
However... Milton says, "I thought you were completely backing off of alan... but I guess I misunderstood your intent. Since you're still pursuing your case on alan the unvote seems less scummy."
I don't see how Milton could have taken that away from rofl's post. Rofl straight up said he backed down. There was no mention of still pursuing his case against roflwaffle. Milton seems to be justifying rofl's actions for him, while saying that rofl seems less scummy.
In the same post, he renews rofl's case against alan. "I think you may have something." Soft support of his teammate?
if suki and roflwaffles were both scum they were essentially going all in on bussing HeavOnEarth blowing any chance that town mislynches D1. Blowing such a chance seems like a pretty gutsy play so maybe she learned well from Xatalos, but I'm not entirely convinced.
This is a possible slip. It describes his behaviour perfectly. He also references Xatalos' play from XV, meaning he's perfectly aware that this was a valid strategy to do this game.
Maybe this is too WIFOMy, but I feel like the safe play for scum would have been to have one player voting HeavOnEarth in order to gain some of the town cred in case he got lynched and one player voting someone else in order to keep a little momentum towards a possible mislynch.
sciberbia pointed this out, but it happens in the same post as the quote above. It describes his play perfectly.
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I like this analysis of Miltonkram's bussing. It makes more sense than s0lstice or sciberbia being mafia, which I really dread cuz I can't find any holes.
sciberbia on Milton's bussing of HeavOnEarth: Milton only puts down his suspicions after both s0lstice and sciberbia have labelled HeavOnEarth as suspicious. And he does it as a 1 of 3 list.
s0lstice on Milton: "If Milton is scum, the second bus was easy as hell. By the time he chimed in, rofl's death was essentially a foregone conclusion"
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For those of you suspicious of me, one thing that you should note is that my play style had no fail safe in place when my reads eventually became wrong.
It doesn't make sense for a scum suki to go full out for a mislynch, either that of Alan on Day1 or Trackd00r Day 2. As you can see, the fallout of being wrong is really really bad. Not only that, but I hadn't even set up 'possibly suspicious' players to go after my mislynches failed. If you really think that I could play a strong mafia game, you should also believe that I'd be good enough to be able to gracefully recover when things go awry.
You can, however, easily find townie motivation behind my tunnelling. As you saw, both of my targets turned out to be blues. They tried to keep out of the spotlight and avoid making strong reads, and it was for these reasons that I targeted them. With alan, I was successful and his contributions convinced me to change my vote.
I may not have been good at hunting scum, but I was good at digging out the non-committal behaviour of blues, I guess.
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There's no point to really think about the night kills yet, as there's only been one (soon to be two).
The important thing is if the game starts getting closer to the end, it because really important to analyse the night kills and not just WIFOM it all away.
And also, it's highly highly probable that there's a scum slip somewhere, no matter how good they are. So just keep looking for those slips and keep the night kills in mind for later.
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EBWOP: The most important thing is if the game starts getting closer to the end, it becomes really important to analyse the night kills and not just WIFOM it all away.
dont know how i messed that up.
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The biggest issue that I have with a scum sciberbia is his insta-bus of roflwaffles after the day 1 lynch.
roflwaffles wasn't under heavy scrutiny at that point. scum sciberbia has no real motivation to bus his last teammate so quickly, with a case so strong that it basically would have killed all conversation for Day 2 (had vigi not shot him).
Also, I don't see scum sciberbia shooting austin. Since sciberbia already had a lot of townie cred, it would have made a lot more sense to shoot someone like s0lstice, or alan or even trackd00r (the latter two showing non-commital, defensive play much like a blue would play). He wouldn't need to make a confusing kill. He could play straightforward and shoot obvious targets.
Well, we'll see how N2 turns out. I only gave your case on sciberbia a quick once-over. A more in depth analysis will have to wait for tomorrow.
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I would like to lynch unforgiven.
Unlike everyone else in the game, unforgiven has hardly any filter to analyse. He is a lurker in every sense of the word.
In addition, I think s0lstice's words have a lot of weight now that he is dead. He had some good analysis on unforgiven, especially regarding moderator actions, and the timing of the moderators asking for night actions. Notice that unforgiven has already given an excuse to be away for the next 3 days. He has an established excuse to keep lurking. And unlike everyone else who is active in this game, unforgiven's filter isn't going to get much bigger, he isn't going to slip like an active scum slips.
Notice that we are already out of good lynch targets, me aside. Town is already starting to point fingers at sciberbia, who was, up until the end of Day 2, one of the strongest townies in the game.
An unforgiven lynch of s0lstice makes sense. N1 he lynched a potential blue, because all the strongest townies had a bad read on him. N2, he lynches the townie who made the strongest case against him.
I realize that coming from the most suspicious person in the game at the moment, my words won't mean much. At this point in time, with strong townie reads on everybody and no solid scum leads, I feel my best move at this point is to lynch the lurker.
I realize that I gave a half-hearted case against golden after trackd00r bled blue. I also added my thoughts on milton possibly being scum after sciberbia brought it up. Both of my arguments have been discredited, and also ignored. My morale took a huge hit after trackd00r died. I don't have any more faith in my play.
Here's the question that I'm asking myself: When I don't have any good scum reads, who is more dangerous scum in the end game? A lurker, or a contributing player?
s0lstice's case against unforgiven makes sense to me. Since I know I am town, I already know that we're in a situation where mafia performed an early bus or even double bus. Given that, it seems that the weak cases made by scum against unforgiven, along with unforgiven/mouldyjeb not being modkilled TWICE, makes him the more likely suspect. Second, I would go after Milton, as the timing on bussing his potential scum teammates makes sense.
I will finish my post by simply saying this. You can believe me or not. If you don't believe me it will cost you a mislynch (of me) to find out. If for some reason the voting is not in a majority at the end of the day, I will change my vote to lynch the most popular candidate in order to prevent a NL, as that would be even worse for town than a mislynch of me.
Until then:
##vote unforgiven_ve
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EBWOP: An unforgiven lynch night kill of s0lstice makes sense.
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On June 19 2012 13:14 alan133 wrote:@sukiTo me, a suki night kill of s0Lstice makes more sense, especially seeing how you immediately talk about his case. During the night, you supported 2 cases, one on Milton and one on Golden.You even commented on MJ/unforgiven here: Show nested quote +Both HeavOnEarth and roflwaffle were on Mouldyjeb's case since Day 1. Highly highly doubt that they would double bus their own teammate that early.
Read: unforgiven very lurky. Possibly town, possibly scum, but can't analyse due to lack of posts. He looks more townie due to mafia double bus early Day 1.
You seems to change your stance very quickly, and you're currently attacking the easiest target right now based on the most recent dead guy's story.
I realize that I am bouncing around now. I think it has to do with just losing all faith in my own judgement, in addition to no one's really listening to me anyways. I still want to post my reads, still want to try to contribute my thoughts when people bring up cases. I still want to believe I can help push for a victory, instead of crawling into a hole and disappearing for the rest of the game because no one will believe me.
You just slipped the same way rolfwaffle did: Show nested quote +Here's the question that I'm asking myself: When I don't have any good scum reads, who is more dangerous scum in the end game? IMO, when I don't have any good scum reads, I will judge who is more scummy/townie and do the process of elimination. Read their filter, and look for clues like: - who lead the lynch on the scum?
- Was it necessary for him to bus at that point in time?
- Is there a bias in my judgement?
Of course there are many more. If I still have no reads, I revert and try to stay neutral, and reevaluate everyone based on new interactions. Call them out, get their reaction. Like I said in rolfwaffle's " The nail in the coffin" case, only Scums have the motivation to look it this way: Who is more dangerous if left alive
No, and actually I distinctly thought of rofl's slip when I wrote that. The thing is, the situation is different now. When rofl slipped, it was Day 1 and there weren't many cases to be made. He made a list of who was most dangerous to keep alive when there was a clear chance of hunting scum.
I feel that this case is different because pretty much everyone can be read as town. The case against me has been getting stronger and stronger, and even though there have been cases that have been made against Milton, Golden and even sciberbia, the case against me remains the only strong one (aside from unforgiven, whose is increasingly coming to people's attention). The thing is, I'm town. I know this, even if no one else knows this. And if I'm town and everyone looks like town to everyone else, then there's a problem. The problem is no one will look particularly scummy once I am mislynched.
In a situation like mine, where no one looks scummy, wouldn't you agree that a lurker is extremely dangerous? If the lurker is a mafia, then town will rip itself apart trying to find the last mafia while the lurker gets a free ride simply because their short filter looks mostly townie. On the other hand, if the lurker gets taken out, all the ones who remain are players who have been active throughout the game. It's much easier to find scummy behaviour in an active player's filter. It's much easier to analyse the night kills as well.
In short, my words may seem similar to rofl's but the meaning that they carry is different. In addition, my perspective is unique, because only I know my own alignment. So if you think I'm guilty, then your perspective is everyone looks town except suki, therefore she must be the last scum. I can't argue that perspective, but I can implore you to still consider other options rather than pat yourselves on the back as if the game will be over once you lynch me.
Now you have lost your last supporter, which I assume scum Suki would want to keep alive if there is any chance for her to escape a lynch. I would feel like a dumbass getting the wrong reads on you 3 times, but your lynch is unavoidable now, if you are the last mafia, I suggest you to out with it already, I won't change my mind this time till you spill green, that's when you are lynched. Do you concede as the last mafia?
The case on unforgiven has merit. In addition, if unforgiven remains alive after today, he may continue to remain alive as the game progresses, because his play isn't going to look any scummier if he continues lurking. I'm still going to be here. The case against me will still remain, and grow bigger as I continue to post.
Basically, if you think I'm scummy, still have a really good look at unforgiven and at the case against him and decide how likely it is that he's scum. Then, vote for who you think is most likely to bleed red. But please consider other cases, not just mine, because the game won't end if I die.
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following up with what sciberbia said, Xatalos' original quote did not mention the Obs QT. Therefore, I took it as Xatalos was implying that zelblade had slipped information in the main thread. I interpreted it this way, and I think s0lstice did too. This prompted s0lstice to take a much closer look at the mod text, which lead to his theory that because unforgiven had not been modkilled after missing his vote, there was some meta information that could be gathered from it.
In the end, there wasn't really a slip, but I do think s0lstice's point that the moderator actions are a big hint at unforgiven's real role has a lot of merit.
In addition, I'd like to point out that in Mafia XV, unforgiven never once claimed that he was vanilla town or even town, despite being a VT. In that game unforgiven got a lot of heat for his posting style (which was pretty anti-town and confusing), but he never tried to claim VT/town and use that as an excuse.
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@alan Observers don't know the roles, but the hosts (including zelblade) do.
Xatalos' quote doesn't give us any information, so lets not analyse it too deeply. Again to reference Mafia XV, in the obs QT late in the game one of the cohosts posted 'One person's play is really impressing me right now'. The observers used the time of posting of that line and compared it to who had posted most recently in the main thread and came to a conclusion who was the last mafia. There would have been no way for the players to garner any information if an observer had said 'the mods slipped in the obs qt'.
What I'm trying to say is there's nothing to gain from analysing possible observer knowledge or observer reading. We should stick with what we know from the thread.
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Unforgiven, I understand that RL limitations can play a factor, I also understand your reasons for every point you defend yourself against. I don't buy that the mods wouldn't just simply modkill you for failing to follow the most basic rule (vote every night), especially since you had the option to decline the replacement invitation if your life really was busy at the time. By agreeing to play the game you agreed that you had the minimal amount of time to play the game. The mods have no obligation to excuse you for not fulfilling your roles in this game.
Now there are two things about last game's unforgiven that I remember. The first is, you got frustrated at everyone and started insulting people when they wouldn't listen to you, and you refused to explain your reads half the time. The second is, you were right for pretty much the entire game. You called me out almost instantly for being scum, and you called heist and Xatalos out really early too.
You are really good at reading people and scum hunting. So in order to get yourself out of this situation I want to see you analyse the remaining players in the game and tell me who you think is scum, and why.
If you really are scum, I have no doubt that you'll slip. If you're town, then you'll be able to help with a town victory. And if you somehow fail to convince us, then either the game will end come lynch time or your reads will help us secure a victory for the town in the end.
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Ah, unforgiven posted while I was saying all that. I am going out so I will have to comment later.
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My thoughts on unforgiven:
To everyone, re-read s0lstice's case on MouldyJeb and unforgiven:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=15139936
s0lstice's case was based not just on unforgiven's filter and playstyle, but also MouldyJeb's filter and playstyle. Both players made weak reads. MouldyJeb made a crap case against rofl. Unforgiven labels austin as possibly scum just before austin gets NK'd.
In addition:
Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 09:32 HeavOnEarth wrote: was sort of waiting for MJ to post something after he was like hurr durr ima post soon. i took a look at his previous game though and his posts seem consistent from when he was townie. hes really not helping at all, and definitely still looks scum, but it feels like poor town play rather than mafia.
Tell me this doesn't sound like newb scum talking about a teammate.
I agree with s0lstice that this sort of soft defence is extremely fishy.
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In response to unforgiven's self defence, one thing stands out to me:
its so easy to change your style of play its makes it a waste of time (at least for me) ...
I don't buy this statement. I had a quick glance through unforgiven's first game as mafia, and between his playstyle as mafia and playstyle as town, he is playing a style much more similar to the former. He lurks a lot in the first game, and he gives excuses why he's busy. This was consistent with his playstyle up until he started getting under heavy pressure.
Note too that the way that we are criticizing his play is not purely a stylistic choice, it's also based on his personality. He's being too helpful as opposed to harshly criticizing bad play and bad reads. It just feels off.
I see both scum and town motivation for the way unforgiven has been acting after s0stice's death, but the fact of the matter is that the gameplay before that by BOTH players is suspicious.
I like the case against unforgiven.
Analysis on other players will have to wait until later. Gotta go to work.
@alan My targets on day 1 weren't random. I tunnelled you and forced you to contribute and I agreed upon HeavOn after reviewing the case against him. You could view it as 'bandwagoning' but the reasons are very clear and not random at all.
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I really don't like how unforgiven posted a big case on milton, but now seems convinced that sciberbia is the most likely scum simply because s0lstice analysed unforgiven's defence post.
I'm a bit disappointed unforgiven. I was almost convinced that you were town, but your tunnelling of sciberbia is weak and not conducive to the town. Your attempts to be abrasive seem hollow and made as a direct response to our accusations.
Four hours remain before the lynch. We have four votes on unforgiven so as long as no one moves their vote we will avoid a NL. Golden and Crossfire are missing, which is extremely disappointing.
I have a case for the next day if unforgiven bleeds green. I'd love to post it soon or even have posted it early this morning but work has kept me occupied all day. I'll post it as soon as I can but I think I have a pretty good case, so I don't want to rush it.
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Haha sciberbia, I didn't even realize I called you s0lstice.
It's because both of your names start with S and both of you are strong townies. So mentally you're in the same category.
Anyways I'm back from work. I'll start writing up my analysis now in case unforgiven is townie.
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@unforgiven I apologize. I had a feeling in my gut that you were town after you started posting, but there was still that possibility in the back of my mind. I trusted in s0lstice's read, and I wanted to believe that the mod behaviour was a slip up.
Now that unforgiven has flipped town, there is one person that stands out to me from everyone else as suspicious.
That player is Miltonkram.
To start, I want to rehash sciberbia's case on Miltonkram.
+ Show Spoiler + 1. He states suspicions on roflwaffle, but backs off quickly so that rofl isn't really in danger from Milton's actions.
2. He throws a bunch of suspicions on people who are town, which "isn't damning but isn't exactly comforting either."
3. He contributes to lynch HeavOnEarth, by putting HeavOnEarth into his "top 3" after only sciberbia and s0lstice have accused him. To s0lstice, a miltonkram bus of HeavOnEarth seems by far the most likely out of all possible buses.
4. Miltonkram was gone almost the entire night of night 1, which fits the theory about scum not submitting their NK until last minute. He also says that the NK doesn't make a lot of sense no matter who ordered it. More on that later.
He finally concludes the Milton is probably town, but possibly could be scum.
Unfortunately, s0lstice didn't give detailed thoughts on Miltonkram before he died, but he did leave this one gem:
Just something to consider...
If Milton is scum, the second bus was easy as hell. By the time he chimed in, rofl's death was essentially a foregone conclusion.
Then really, the only one he bussed was heavonearth. Bussing one of your teammates when an influential townie is calling for their death is a logical play.
After these posts, I put in my two cents (which I will simply re-include as part of this analysis). Alan posts his case on Golden, and Crossfire posts his case on sciberbia. No one comments on Miltonkram and Miltonkram didn't post any defence. I would have liked to see his defence, but sciberbia said 'you don't have to post a defence', so the lack of defence isn't suspicious in itself.
s0lstice then posts his case on unforgiven which is the main topic for the rest of the night and day.
No one even talked about Miltonkram until unforgiven brought him up in his one big post. His points were as follows:
1. He tries to buddy up with alan 2. He's never been pressured. He's never really pressured anyone. (related to sciberbia's point #1 and #2 above) 3. He was nervous prior to HeavOn's lynch. More on this later 4. He tries to gain townie credit when rofl starts coming under fire. (see s0lstice's comment on bus timing above)
Miltonkram posts a reasonable defence.
Now that I've gone through the previous cases against Miltonkram, let me begin my case.
My Case Against Miltonkram
I will begin by analyzing the night kills.
+ Show Spoiler + I have a theory that both night kill targets were made with the same motivation - To point town towards a lynch target for the next day.
Why Austin?? Austin pushed his case against Crossfire when everyone jumped on HeavOnEarth. s0lstice's dying words were against unforgiven.
We didn't listen to the first "suggestion" because the case against rofl was so strong. Had rofl not been immediately strung up on the gallows, we may have really gone after Crossfire.
We did listen to the second suggestion, and killed the NK target's biggest suspect. The first kill could also have had the secondary purpose of finding a blue. The second kill's secondary purpose was targetting a strong townie.
Why s0lstice and not sciberbia? Because s0lstice was wrong, both about unforgiven and about me (who he'd probably go after, after unforgiven died). Sciberbia only had his finger pointed at me.
In short, it makes sense for Milton to make this kind of play. I feel it explains a scum Milton's thought process, something which has confused us for the whole time.
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The vote timings
Here is what I said previously:
sciberbia on Milton's bussing of HeavOnEarth: Milton only puts down his suspicions after both s0lstice and sciberbia have labelled HeavOnEarth as suspicious. And he does it as a 1 of 3 list.
s0lstice on Milton: "If Milton is scum, the second bus was easy as hell. By the time he chimed in, rofl's death was essentially a foregone conclusion"
I think the vote timings for scum Milton make perfect sense, and don't involve an insta-bus (of roflwaffles) out of nowhere like a scum sciberbia case does.
Milton voted trackdoor as his #1 scum read after I made my big post against trackd00r. His main reasons being the voteswitch, and his weak pressure on other players.
Right after he posts:
EBWOP: This isn't a strong point, so I'm not hinging my opinions on it.
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Milton then remained quiet until the case on unforgiven got attention. He is sure that unforgiven is scum now, and his main reasons are HeavOnEarth's awkward bus of MJ and unforgiven claiming VT.
Notice that in the period between austin/rofl getting lynched until now, Milton has not pressured anyone. He has only chimed when there's a strong case against someone, writes up some support info, and then votes for the target.
In other words, Milton is taking an easy bandwagon ride on every lynch.
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My next point, a strange comment in his back and forth with roflwaffles:
+ Show Spoiler +Miltonkram: roflwaffles55 I'm suspicious of this guy based on two of his posts. First one is a response to s0Lstice/sciberbia: Show nested quote + Sure!
When it comes to lynching lurkers I would agree in that it shouldn't be the focus, and would prefer to lynch someone acting scummy day 1.
As to NL, I am firmly against it and if we can't get a clear majority on scummy-acting folks then we should at least lynch a lurker, especially on D1 and 2.
Notice the eager to please tone of his post. I'm looking at it as a possible scumslip. His 2nd suspicious post: Show nested quote + I agree that I may have been a bit too aggressive right off the bat, but I implore you to look at my arguments and his, and take more from it then just an overzealous attempt on my part.
##unvote alan133
There you go, I'm still suspicious, but I may have underestimated the significance of a vote.
Notice how self-conscious he is in this post, especially in that last line. I realize that several players weren't interested in his case, but there is absolutely no harm in keeping pressure on a player until they give you a satisfactory defense. Essentially he backs down from his pressure based on a tiny reprimand from Crossfire. It seems like he's trying to keep himself out of the spotlight. roflwaffle: You've defeated yourself in your own argument against me, with the explanation as to why I backed down on alan133. I backed down because I hadn't received any support towards my case. You also defeated yourself by saying that I'm trying to keep myself out of the spotlight, if I wanted that, I wouldn't have been the third person to post a case, let alone one I knew would net me a bunch of flak.
I made the case to put pressure on someone that was lacking any real opinion, whether because he felt that there wasn't enough data to form one, or because he was hiding from the spotlight himself.
The evidence or suspicions that you have brought up can be answered so easily I'm not sure why you didn't come up with them yourself.
Miltonkram: @ roflwaffles Ok, I see what you're saying. I thought you were completely backing off of alan even though you've made a decent case against him. I still don't like the fact that you took your vote off of him based on a wrist-slap from Crossfire, but I guess I misunderstood your intent. Since you're still pursuing your case on alan the unvote seems less scummy.
As far as alan133 is concerned I think you may have something. He's put very little pressure on anyone. When he does pressure he seems wishy-washy as hell.
Miltonkram had a little back and forth between himself and roflwaffle. Notice how easily roflwaffle deflects Milton's case against him, as if the arguments Milton made were meant to be deflected. Now notice how milton just gives him the green light.
However... Milton says, "I thought you were completely backing off of alan... but I guess I misunderstood your intent. Since you're still pursuing your case on alan the unvote seems less scummy."
I don't see how Milton could have taken that away from rofl's post. Rofl straight up said he backed down. There was no mention of still pursuing his case against roflwaffle. Milton seems to be justifying rofl's actions for him, while saying that rofl seems less scummy.
In the same post, he renews rofl's case against alan. "As far as alan133 concerned I think you may have something." Soft support of his teammate?
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Next, Milton making observations on scum actions and motivations that actually perfectly fit the way he's been playing:
if suki and roflwaffles were both scum they were essentially going all in on bussing HeavOnEarth blowing any chance that town mislynches D1. Blowing such a chance seems like a pretty gutsy play so maybe she learned well from Xatalos, but I'm not entirely convinced.
This is a possible slip. It describes his behaviour perfectly. He also references Xatalos' play from XV, meaning he's perfectly aware that this was a valid strategy to do this game.
Maybe this is too WIFOMy, but I feel like the safe play for scum would have been to have one player voting HeavOnEarth in order to gain some of the town cred in case he got lynched and one player voting someone else in order to keep a little momentum towards a possible mislynch.
sciberbia pointed this out, but it happens in the same post as the quote above. It describes his play perfectly and could be another slip.
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His nervousness pre-lynch of HeavOn:
@ Heaven There are a lot of people jumping on your case really quickly. Not gonna lie, it's making me a little nervous. Please post some sort of defense or at the very least what kind of reads you have on players whenever you have the time.
This quote reminds me a LOT of a quote by Xatalos in Mafia XV:
Suki, where are you when you need to defend yourself? The bandwagon on you is gathering steam, but you're nowhere to be seen. And I don't even think you're Mafia. Do a favor for everyone and show up right now.
This was what Xatalos posted in the game when there was a bandwagon growing on me while I was away. Basically, it's a last-ditch effort for mafia to tell their teammate to post, JUST IN CASE they weren't checking the mafia QT but were checking the main thread.
When Milton posted this, it stuck out to me as really odd. Now I think this is a pure scum slip, disguised to be a 'helpful townie' post. There is definite mafia motivation for this post, but not really any townie motivation.
Now contrast this with his certainty of trackd00r and unforgiven being scum. There has been no hesitation in his reads, no questioning of who could possibly be mafia. The person on the chopping block has been his main read every time.
IN SUMMARY
Motivation for both night kills can be found for a scum Miltonkram Milton's bussing of his two teammates can be explained by reasonable mafia play that doesn't involve extreme early actions. Milton's strange interpretation/soft defense of rofl's words Milton's lack of commentary on any player except those with strong cases against them. Milton's nervousness pre-lynch of HeavOnEarth... ... Contrasted with Milton's confidence in finding the last scum each lynch, when we're approaching a situation where everyone looks townie.
This is my case against Miltonkram. Come daytime I will vote for him. I can't see sciberbia or crossfire as scum. I can't see HeavOnEarth pressuring a scum Golden the way he did. Milton is now the last and only suspect in my mind.
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@alan
I've been very busy so I haven't had a chance to look closely at sciberbia's filter, but I have two reasons why he can't be mafia. First, it doesn't make sense for him to hard bus roflwaffle as soon as HeavOnEarth got lynched, and he's played a solid town game with a lot of strong analysis that would be hard to keep up as a mafia. Second, in my gut I feel he genuinely started feeling bad after I posted my defence and subsequent requests to keep analysing despite being convinced I was mafia. I really think a mafia sciberbia wouldn't be so affected.
@sciberbia
Please read my case on miltonkram. You say Milton 'feels townie', despite not contributing to town since rofl's death. The only point in the game where he really pressured others was prior to trackd00r's death, and it was only weak pressure at that. He hasn't shared his thoughts on you or me or golden or crossfire for a very long time.
He's managed to stay out of the spotlight for the entire game with a townie read on him. Meanwhile I have been in the spotlight the whole game and it seems people's opinions on my scumminess go back and forth. All of the evidence against me has been circumstantial - the targets I really went down hard on have turned out to be blue, and I wasn't one of the first to vote for mafia when they became town targets ... but my play has always clearly had town motivations and methodologies.
When you contrast this with Milton, all of his suspicious targets aside from HeavOnEarth have been town or pretty much confirmed town, and he stopped contributing once both of the scum died. He only jumped in to justify his vote for the player with a strong case on them, or to defend himself. I've pointed out multiple posts that can easily be seen as scum slips. Both you and s0lstice have commented that if Milton was scum, both busses of his teammates wouldn't have been too outrageous.
You commented earlier that me NK'ing austin wouldn't make any sense. Well, in my case I explained how a NK of austin would make sense for Milton. To add to that analysis, Milton was under absolutely zero pressure on the first day. It makes sense to aim for a possible blue rather than a strong townie, since he wasn't going to be under scrutiny any time soon.
Please have another look at my case and at Milton's filter. Overall, it's much easier to justify Milton's actions, playstyles and slips as coming from scum motivations. This is also a big reason why I don't suspect sciberbia. His play would have to be way too crafty and risky if he was scum. Also keep in mind that unforgiven was already being heavily pushed by me and milton. If sciberbia were scum he could have easily just let me push the lynch and then use that as a reason to hang me up to dry the next day. Unforgiven was suspicious of the hard tunnelling but I don't see it as suspicious at all.
Another point as I take a quick peek at sciberbia's filter. When we were lynching trackd00r, sciberbia was not convinced that he was scum. After he voted for trackd00r he said 'trackd00r IF YOU ARE A BLUE CLAIM NOW'. This is definitely not scum-motivated behaviour.
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The NK makes sense.
As we get closer to a 3 person LYLO situation, it's in the best interest of the mafia to have as few confirmed townies as possible. It's also in the interest of mafia to keep players who have had suspicions laid on them, so that those suspicions may rise again come the end of the game.
Alan was confirmed town, but his analysis is definitely not as strong as sciberbia. Killing alan leaves sciberbia as the only really strong townie left in the game. If sciberbia had been NK'd, Alan would still have the benefit of being a confirmed townie to help guide town. But since sciberbia has had suspicions raised on him, it may be part of a mind game to instil doubt into town if it reaches the final stages of the game.
For now I think the move is the obvious mafia move, and it shouldn't be looked into too deeply. This NK may become important if the game lasts into the next night, which I really really hope it doesn't.
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I also strongly believe that there are no more blues.
There has been no sign of blue behaviour for the whole game since Alan's shot. If we had a cop, we most certainly would have one player drilling another one hard even if no one claimed. If we had a doctor, I feel they would have been able to save one of s0lstice or alan. If we had a jailkeeper, the NK would have been blocked by now, or we would have seen one player vehemently defending the more suspicious players.
Golden's lurking is unfortunate. I can take a closer look at his filter later but I would really really hate to policy lynch at this stage of the game. If Golden really is mafia then it was a really great or really lucky play by mafia to have HeavOnEarth target him so early. I feel his irritation is sincere. Imagine this, he joins a mafia game for some masochistic reason fun but his life is extremely busy. Still, he puts in an hour here and there when he can to help out, but then someone starts drilling him for not contributing. It makes sense to be pissed, right? He doesn't have to play, he tried to contribute and he gets criticized for it.
Perhaps Golden's simple #vote on unforgiven is just because he is sick of this game and doesn't want to put any more time into it, but he at the very least feels obligated to still keep up the bare bare minimum. I feel that HeavOnEarth's super early game actions are enough to justify putting him as less scummy than Milton though.
sciberbia is as town as someone can get I think. I've posted my reads already.
And Crossfire has two big things going for him in my mind (aside from all the other points put forth by other players). The first is his case against sciberbia. No scum is going to attack the strongest townie in the game. They are just gonna shoot him at night. If a scum is gonna be aggressive at all he's gonna target the easy targets. Second, I really really have faith in my meta-game read on him. His helpful tone in the beginning is consistent with his helpful tone in the mafia QT in his past game. This is not something you fake as mafia, this is part of one's personality. He genuinely wants to help town and the helpful tone bubbles out. If he were mafia, that desire to help would not be so genuine.
That leaves Miltonkram, who I analysed in detail. And golden, who is lurking, whose filter I will analyse when I get time.
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