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On June 10 2012 06:37 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
1) He's on the verge of arguing himself out of a no night kill situation, and he can fall back on not getting his shot refunded if he gets roleblocked once. He could always claim being RBed and at worst he'd trade himself for a RBer, at best he'd get town cred.
2) I don't think there's an SK in this game, especially given there were no night kills.
He didn't have that much pressure on him when he claimed he was RBed at all, in fact it looked like furer was going to take up the heat. I can see how he would feel pressured by thinking a Roleblocker might claim to have blocked him, but then why claim JK? It doesn't make sense from a game setup perspective as it's a very unlikely role to be present given the other roles that'd have to be present too.
Blazinghand isn't particularly afraid of making risky plays. The question is not if Town would lynch him for it, but if Blazinghand thinks he could get away with it if he was scum. Given he could make this play as both town and scum, I don't think you're giving him enough credit here.
Maybe I just don't remember playing in a game where scum made such a bold move on night 1.
I've had a scum read on Hyaach since day 1, but do you think they could both be town?
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There are 6 on Hyaach and 5 on blazing.
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I could totally see that happening, with a "That's how we play over at epicmafia, I'm totally not scum".
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Sigh. Second game in a row where scum have got caught with their pants down in retarded lies. I don't know if I'm actually getting better at hunting scum or if they're just getting dumber.
+ Show Spoiler [Offtopic Euro 2012] +Why couldn't the Netherlands put the friggen ball on the net!? My girlfriend and I were getting so stressed out (both of dutch ancestry) 
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First thing, I agree that we need to resolve the blazinghand situation and the furerkip/Palmar situation.
Here is how I see it (I've already stated this multiple times):
If blazing is the SK, then claiming vig is really dumb because he's gonna be shot by mafia later in the game. Almost guaranteed.
If blazing is scum, again I think it's really dumb to claim vig. However, multiple people have pointed out that he could be playing on our belief that mafia wouldn't do that, blah blah wifom.
That being said, something I don't understand is why he would be banking on a town RB to claim if he's not town. Like, if you're scum or SK why aren't you trying to control your own destiny? He's basically relying on another town member to save him or he knows he's going to be lynched.
Conclusion: Probably vigilante.
On furerkip/Palmar: I've never seen scum act as wrecklessly as furerkip did day 1. That being said, I pointed out that he wasn't from around here so that shouldn't be a town tell. Also, as VE pointed out, his willingness to mislynch townies seems quite scum motivated. I think that unless Palmar shows us an incredibly towny attitude and finds us some scum, fast, he needs to be lynched.
I've read through the thread and everyone's filters and I'm really questioning what I think of Katina.
At first I had noted that she was appearing towny because she wasn't afraid to go after the vets like VE and blazing. However, I'm questioning this logic, especially given the Hyaach flip (see below). Mainly though, besides go after VE and blazing, she's done very little scum hunting and has been hesitant to put her thoughts in the thread.
The reason I mention the Hyaach flip is because I'm having a hard time following her reasoning for keeping her vote on BH instead of Hyaach. It looks a lot like scum trying to gain some town cred:
She claims that there was no way Hyaach was mafia, but the only reasoning she had for not voting him beforehand was that it didn't make sense for Hyaach to claim being RBed if he was mafia. This doesn't make any sense and has been refuted multiple times in the thread! Yet she keeps coming back to it as an excuse not to lynch Hyaach. Also, even though she seems so sure that Hyaach was going to flip town:
Yep. There was no way Hyaach was Mafia.
She barely tried to prevent his lynch. How can you be so sure someone is town, yet give only a terrible argument and not try harder than that to prevent a mislynch?
I think Katina is scum.
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And unfortunately I have to run out the door right now for a family dinner so I can't answer and questions/rebuttals immediately.
However, I will respond to everything as soon as I get another chance.
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On June 11 2012 09:08 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Ah, so we'd need 4 roleblockers to solve the puzzle then. One to block Hyaach, one to block scum KP, and one to block you, the fourth being Hyaach himself as JK. That or 3 roleblockers and an SK. Both sound unlikely. I hate voting based on setup speculation given our 'success' with it so far. If you're speaking the truth, I urge the RBer to come forward. I've had a change of heart regarding not revealing my blue read as I feel there's a strong possibility he's red. I present to you: Snarfs. Show nested quote +On June 05 2012 15:54 Snarfs wrote:@VE, In one sentence you claim that: Town's aim needs to be lengthening the game, not shortening it. That's why we aim for scum every single lynch, because every scum lynch increases the number of days the game lasts. Yet you follow it up with this: Also I'm going to suggest we policy-lynch Katina if she doesn't prove her worth to town by providing us with some sort of content to be held accountable for if we are unable to find a suitable scummy candidate. Care to explain? Is Katina really that unhelpful as town? It was pretty clear to me that this was pressure on lurkers to make them post more rather than actually trying to get her lynched. For the rest he also posted a bunch of questions yet didn't really chime in much until figuring out where people stood. Joined the BH bandwagon until BH started posting seriously, and suddenly went full on against Hyaach, whose case he had against him was very weak.
Just trying to get 2 things here:
1) More information about Katina
2) Some sort of reaction from VE, even if it was just in the form of more information on Katina. Obviously, I was provided neither.
Show nested quote +On June 07 2012 11:32 Snarfs wrote:
I've reread the thread and I still believe that Hyaach is the best lynch tomorrow.
Look at what he's done:
a) He hasn't contributed to any scumhunting. He hasn't asked questions and he hasn't used his vote to pressure people.
b) His vote on Pandain seemed very forced, as Navillus and I have both mentioned.
c) He blames his lack of content on the time zone difference. There were a ton of things he could have talked about when he was online. Not being online at the same time as others is not an excuse for not commenting on things that have happened in the game. a) That's not a mafia trait, that's a lazy player trait. b) A townie being pressured also does strange things. His vote looked a bit sheepish but not that strange. c) He never blamed his lack of content on the time zone difference. He he looked sheepish with his vote on Pandain because he woke up when the case already took off, which is a legitimate argument.
It was the combination of the three things that made me think he was scum. His vote on Pandain encouraged me to look back through his filter and when I didn't see anything that indicated to me he was trying to find mafia, he jumped to the top of my scum list. The fact that he kept stalling in providing analysis on players was enough for me to keep my vote on him and remain convinced that he was scum.
Show nested quote +On June 08 2012 15:22 Snarfs wrote:
So just gave the thread a reread/skim through certain parts.
Sticking with my plan of not wasting an entire day cycle, assuming furer doesn't even come back, I'd like to hear some opinions on ghost_403. Then fails to name any examples of why Ghost is scummy or anything with his own opinion, despite claiming he just read the thread again. How come you didn't provide any reasoning here yourself?
I try to get people to place their thoughts on players I find suspicious down in the thread. Ghost was a null read for me at the time (still is and I think there are higher scum targets for us to be going after) and by gauging other players' thoughts I work my opinion of both the player I'm interested in and the players who respond. Often town players respond well to such statements as it gives them an opportunity to try and find scum and I can usually cross people off my scum list. If I lead with my own thoughts then I just give the other players on opportunity to say, "Hmm yea, I agree with you, he is looking suspicious" which is often a null tell, as opposed to someone actually coming forward and being willing to offer thoughts on a player.
His defense on BH is absolutely damning with only ONE clause out. That being that he's the town RBer. Show nested quote +On June 11 2012 06:15 Snarfs wrote:
First thing, I agree that we need to resolve the blazinghand situation and the furerkip/Palmar situation.
Here is how I see it (I've already stated this multiple times):
If blazing is the SK, then claiming vig is really dumb because he's gonna be shot by mafia later in the game. Almost guaranteed.
If blazing is scum, again I think it's really dumb to claim vig. However, multiple people have pointed out that he could be playing on our belief that mafia wouldn't do that, blah blah wifom.
That being said, something I don't understand is why he would be banking on a town RB to claim if he's not town. Like, if you're scum or SK why aren't you trying to control your own destiny? He's basically relying on another town member to save him or he knows he's going to be lynched.
Conclusion: Probably vigilante. This defense makes absolutely no sense. He's basically saying it's dumb for Blazing to claim vig unless he's town because anything else is wifom. Given the amount of roleblock roles available in the rolelist, it's not a stretch that he could claim being roleblocked, especially since vigis only get one shot and don't get their shots refunded even if they get roleblocked makes it very easy for him to claim it as scum. Calling someone like Blazinghand who loves to do funky stuff town simply because he claimed vigi is incredibly shortsighted. I also don't see how him claiming vig is going to get him shot if he's sk. He said he fired his only shot so mafia would think he's just a VT now, which would be great if he's SK. Given the amount of suspicion town still has it'd make sense for mafia not to shoot him. If he's SK he could've still been roleblocked too, and he could've expected that his kill on furer would go through. The claims on this last post show me you're incredibly convinced BH is town, meaning you know things I don't. Given your play so far I'd expect you to be smarter than this. Therefore you are scum or you're a RBer, in which case now is the time to claim. ##Vote: Snarfs
Sorry to say I'm not the roleblocker.
TL towns lynch people for dumb reasons all the time and I've been on those wagons a few times in the recent past. See MrZentor in Wheel of Fortune for a good example of what I'm talking about. See Pandain this game for another example. That's not to say they might not be mafia, but people need to stop assuming that just because someone does something stupid/suspicious that they must be mafia. In fact, often doing something stupid/blatantly suspicious is a town tell. I'm trying to be better than the average TL mafia player. My reads have actually been half decent the last few games I've played. From now on, if I think we're going to mislynch then I'm going to tell you that I think it's a mislynch. Especially if I'm in a game where we haven't nailed scum once yet. I'm also going to provide who I think is a good lynch instead (in this case, Katina), and reasons why (as I gave at the night post).
Show me a game where someone has actually been dumb enough to claim vig night 1 and has then survived and gone on to win the game in a situation where the killing power of mafia was messed up on the night he claimed vig. I don't think people are that stupid. I mean, look at this game, people are already ready and willing to lynch him. Do you not think that he would have thought, if he was mafia, about the fact that people would probably want to lynch him?
@blazinghand: Your suspicions of me arose from the fact that I'm not pushing you to get information, but do I really need to? Look at how many people we have pushing you, one more isn't going to get anything else out of you. I'd rather focus my attention elsewhere for now and come back if mafia still haven't killed you in another day or two because if you're town then you're probably a pretty high target on their list.
(NOT TO SAY I'M JUST GOING TO FLIP OUT AND ASSUME HE'S MAFIA IN TWO DAYS, JUST THAT HE MIGHT REQUIRE MORE ATTENTION THAN I'M CURRENTLY GIVING HIM)
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Guess I have too much faith in the intelligence of other players.
Tell me, BH, how did you honestly expect not to be lynched before lylo with your vig claim? Because clearly if your goal was to lynch everyone who thought you might be town you would have failed pretty damn quick.
##Vote blazinghand
I will take guaranteed scum and an extra 3 days to draw more discussion out of others over any other possible scum read I have.
That being said though, I would still like to hear everyone's opinions on Katina.
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On June 12 2012 03:54 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
His vote on Pandain was one of many. Did you feel it was neccesary to look back at all of them? It seems weird to me that it just so happens that Hyaach is the one to make you look back at it. As an experienced Mafia player, you should be well aware by now that people not scumhunting doesn't equal being scum, especially newbie townies. It's hard to provide analysis when your English isn't that good as his clearly wasn't. I find your reasons for calling him scum meek at best.
And yes, I'm aware I did vote for him at the end too. However, that's a lot later and based on different things.
Yes, I did feel it was neccessary to go back and look at all the votes on Pandain, and I did just that. I even said earlier that everyone should go back and look at the votes on Pandain.
I'm not saying the entire case boiled down to him not scumhunting. I'm saying that that contributed, along with the other points I've made (i.e. shady sheeping onto Pandain, posts which refer to not being around when things happen as an excuse not to provide opinions on things, generally avoiding commenting on other players), in him being my strongest scum read.
Wait, first you find Ghost suspicious, then you find him a null read? You can't cut the pie and eat it, too. By only posing questions and not giving your own opinions you make it very hard for other people to read your intentions, something that's good for mafia. Scum doesn't know who people think other people think are town and would love to know so they can kill that person. By not sharing your own opinion first you give yourself an opening to which you can adapt your opinion before you've ever given it. Townies usually aren't that cautious. Townies will give their own opinions, and people that sheep your opinion should be treated with extreme caution and can be a scumtell on its own.
1) If you're not a town read, you're suspicious. Null = not a town read = suspicious.
2) I understand that by not giving opinions all the time, scum can easily adapt to what other people say. I've been trying to provide a balance this game by both sharing my thoughts and trying to gather the thoughts of other players. I've been quite clear on my thoughts on Hyaach, blazinghand, furer/Palmar and Katina and if you need my opinion on any other player who you're finding suspicious yourself, just ask me. Otherwise, I will bring up players I'm finding suspicious and see what my town reads have to say about them.
And I can point to you plenty of games where scum do stupid stuff too. See TL Mafia LI where VE claims DT with a scum check on Toad who claims Veteran. Both were scum. See BH this game, claiming SK. My problem with your defense of BH is that you seem so sure of him being 'probably vigilante' that I feel you have to have information that we don't. This means to me that you're either scum or a roleblocker (with a slight chance of irrational townie). Since you just claimed you're not the roleblocker, that leaves scum.
I don't need to show you a game where vig claims Night 1 and wins. People like to claim, that doesn't mean that they're successful with them. And he didn't know the KP was going to be messed up before he claimed, so that didn't affect his claim at all. I don't think BH thought that much about his claim, just thought "hey let's claim vig since I have a KP role, yeah that sounds cool let's do it and see what happens!".
I honestly think it's dumb as hell for scum to do that for reasons I've stated multiple times. He would have been under such insane scrutiny that there's no way he could have survived until LYLO, and if he did, he probably would have been lynched at that point in time. He wasn't going to win after that claim - we were either going to lynch him or scum was going to shoot him.
Also, I'd like to hear your case on Katina, rather than have you ask other people what their opinion is again. If it's a really good case I might reconsider my vote.
I posted my thoughts on Katina at the end of the night: [click]
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On June 12 2012 04:31 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On June 12 2012 04:22 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Yes, so let's go back to scumhunting based on behavior. Care to start making some cases to prove you want to actually help town? I said I'm reading snarf's stupid history, but he always plays in PM games. His most recent non PM game is DF Mafia and that was 7 whole pages filter. Give me a second, jeez. I've spent all game trying to only be marginally helpful and now I have to be actually helpful and it sucks.
I only played in one PM game and it sucked. I've been a mason twice though, if that's what you're actually referring to.
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On June 12 2012 18:15 Shraft wrote:
Stop calling BH anti-town. Right now, he is more fucking pro-town than any of us. The chance that BH is a fake-claiming mafia is slim, and our chances of winning are a lot higher with than without him. Let's kill this zelblade guy now.
##Vote zelblade
The chance that he is SK fake-claiming is pretty slim too. His plan would have to have been to not night kill anyone else for the rest of the game or else be lynched. Until we actually know his motives how can we be sure that his case even has merit?
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@Shraft: Clearly your thought process has changed between here:
On June 07 2012 09:40 Shraft wrote:
I'm not that suspicious of Navillus anymore. All of my problems with him came from one post that I thought was loaded with scumminess, but I haven't been able to notice anything scummy about his subsequent posts. I've made the mistake of tunneling a player based off of one really scummy post before, and I am not going to do it again. Additionally, we now know that Pandain had a town read on him.
And here:
On June 12 2012 08:02 Shraft wrote:
I think Navillus or zelblade both make for fine lynch targets.
Yet you haven't made it clear how you got from A to B. Care to fill us in?
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On June 13 2012 03:00 Shraft wrote:@SnarfsIt was this post that made my suspicion toward Navillus resurface: Show nested quote +On June 12 2012 05:49 Navillus wrote:
I mostly believe BH's claim, that said I don't have a target that I would rather switch to, I don't like the lesser but still existing possibility that he's using this as mafia as a last ditch attempt to avoid the lynch, and frankly I don't really care. He's likely SK and no matter how much he sounds like he's trying to play pro-town his wincon is still just as much against us as it is against mafia, he will attempt to screw us in the end and he's a good player, I don't want to give him that chance. I am not going to be the stupid townie that thought we could control or contain him. He clearly will have a plan to win himself and I'm not gonna wait until we have to choose between letting him get the win or mafia. His argumentation here is akin to that of the mafia in Arkham Asylum. (A game where I belive youngminii was found out as scum because he focused a lot on killing the third party SK roles.) What's more concerning is that it doesn't seem to make any difference to him whether BH is mafia or SK, whereas to me, as town, whether he's SK or mafia means a huge deal. If he's mafia, it could be detrimental to us to not have him lynched today, but if he's an SK, I think that keeping him alive would increase our chances at winning, as even if he's roleblocked every night (which increases the chance of our potential RB/other power roles power not getting blocked) he'll still function just as any townie until we've caught a few scum (at which point we can probably just have him lynched anyway). I'd be fine with his post if he tried to argue that the risk of BH being mafia is too high (which I don't agree with) and that he'd rather just kill him than risk BH being mafia. What makes me suspicious is that he says that he doesn't care. The last part of his post also contains an appeal to emotion, which isn't always a scum tell, but it is certainly a bad argument on why we should lynch BH.
Hmm, I don't see what you do here. To me, when he says that he's "not going to be the stupid townie that thought we could control or contain him", it seems like he's not willing to put town's interests in the hands of a known anti-town player. In blazinghand's plan, if we assume that he is SK, we would need to rely a lot on his ability to hit his targets correctly. I'd much rather take the game into my own hands than leave it in the hands of someone who doesn't even share a wincon with us.
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I seriously doubt claiming vig night 1 gives you a legitimate chance to win as SK -_- . We can discuss that in the postgame though.
I do admit that if he had a chance to win it would have been by providing us with scum so I'll assume he genuinely meant his case on zelblade. When I first skimmed through it though I got the impression it was mostly meta with some WIFOM and about one sentence related to how zelblade has actually been scummy this game. I'm going to have to reread it with slightly less bias later though.
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On zelblade, there are two things that make me think that he's the best chance at hitting scum we have tomorrow (that have happened in this game, much of what blazinghand said in his case was meta and I think Artanis showed just how biased meta can be):
The first one was the wishy washy post where he ends up voting blazinghand. BH and Artanis have discussed this already and I agree with them that there seemed to be quite a bit of cognitive dissonance between his thoughts and his vote.
For reference, the post is here: [click]
The second thing I noticed when reading zelblade was his strange insistence that claiming that there are 4 mafia in the game was a reason to lynch furerkip. Zelblade's reasoning wasn't that furer had scumslipped, but rather that furer had claimed that something was in the OP when it wasn't. This misrepresents what furer said though as he doesn't claim anywhere that it says in the OP that there are 4 mafia.:
First he tries to push the idea that furer claimed that it listed 4 mafia in the OP even though that's not what ghost says. ghost claims that "It could be an extrapolation, or it could be a scumslip". I personally don't think that scum would ever blatantly lie and believe that furer was guessing the number of scum based on the number of roles available. I find it very hard to believe that anyone actually thought he was saying that it literally says in the OP that there were 4 max scum:
On June 06 2012 22:49 zelblade wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2012 22:40 ghost_403 wrote:The post that I had originally thought was most scummy from Furer was this one. I don't like the fact that he says he's going to back off on VE since no one is jumping on his bandwagon. However, upon further reflection, I think he did exactly what I would have done in the situation: state that he still thought VE was scummy and move on to doing something else. I don't think that he's nearly as scummy after giving it further thought. This post still bothers me a little: On June 05 2012 07:38 furerkip wrote:
If you are wondering where I got 4 from, it's from the maximum amount of mafia as you can see on the 1st page. I've checked the first page, and it doesn't say how many scum are in the game. It could be an extrapolation, or it could be a scumslip. If he does flip scum, I would assume that there are either four scum total, or, more likely, three scum and a serial killer. I still don't like his stances on mislynches outside of LYLO, but that could be easily attributed to him learning to play outside of TL. tl;dr: I was wrong, and my read on him has gone from scum to null. Wait what? I took his word for it and didnt check the OP -_- I dont think that him claiming that there was 4 scum is scummy since its a somewhat plausible assumption and may be the norm where he plays, but him lying about it being in the op is just...
Then, zelblade attempts to gain support from other players for a furer lynch. He hardly tries to pressure furer at all and is waiting for others to jump on the wagon first:
On June 06 2012 22:52 zelblade wrote:
I am actually willing to lynch furekip based on that alone. As said, there is no townie reasoning possible to lie about something like that. Sure scumslips are usually made by townies but I dont think that they would lie about their reasoning like this. The only problem with this is that it is so dumb as mafia too -_-
So furekip why did you lie about it?
He then continues to try and push furerkip for the next 3 days even though he has clearly disappeared from the game and would be perfect scum bait for a mislynch:
On June 07 2012 17:50 zelblade wrote:
Also I want to lynch furekip if he doesnt give a good explanation for lying about the mafia team numbers thing.
On June 10 2012 11:13 zelblade wrote:
Well at least this flip gives us quite a decent bit of info.
Furekip and bh should be our next 2 lynches.
Thoughts?
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Navillus, what do you think of zelblade? Who do you propose we lynch should you die tonight?
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Navillus, ghost, Palmar and MrZentor all need to get in here and give their thoughts on zelblade.
Hell, Shraft, you didn't even give your thoughts on him, you just said we should lynch the hell out of him then linked his filter and BH's case. So you agree 100% with BH's case and that's it?
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On June 14 2012 08:39 ghost_403 wrote:
I'm waiting to see what zelblade has to say for himself.
Let's hypothesize for a second that he doesn't return to the thread for the remainder of the two day period.
What would your course of action be?
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On June 13 2012 18:16 Palmar wrote:
You don't get to do that btw.
Also, I need to read up on a few people.
Looking forward to the results of this...
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EPT
