EPTEmergency Mini Mafia! - Page 2
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Sweden701 Posts
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On June 08 2012 21:07 Navillus wrote: I'm on my phone so I can't do anything big but bh I think the sk is very unlikely as that would require for the sk to have ALSO missed their shot somehow or for them to have held it for some reason. Also in general we don't know if there is a jk an if there is who they jailed and we don't know about any possible sk, we do know about 2 RBs and frankly I think it's much more likely that one of the RBed people were the scum shot as if they were they're forced to claim or look like they're hiding it, than some possible way they were both RBed then a shotmissed for some separate reason. I'm on my phone so can't do much analysis but I'll probably vote hyaach when I get home for a combination of this and my past reasons for seeing him as scum. I kind of agree with this. The most likely explanation is that one of them is scum. I think the vote should be between BH/Hyaach today, and I am on the BH side. ##Vote Hyaach | ||
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On June 08 2012 23:02 VisceraEyes wrote: ##Unvote Furerkip ##Vote Blazinghand ? | ||
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On June 08 2012 23:17 Hyaach wrote: Why is no one seeing my side of the story? Just because BH claim first doesnt mean he cant be the mafia who got RBed. BH's claim now is sketchy at best. Zelblade is red. 1. BH's reaction to Pandain's claim can be explained with BH being a vigilante. 2. You are a shady lurker. | ||
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On June 08 2012 23:55 ghost_403 wrote: (Corrected your question.) You're in that it's hard to explain that vote. My only explanation would be that BH was sure that MrZ would flip scum, but it's still quite strange why he would change like that. If he was a real vigilante, he would probably be a lot more set on lynching Pandain. I might have to reconsider this situation.@shraft: Why would he wait? You think that he purposefully waited to vote to lynch the guy that he knew was lying in order to hide the fact that he Blazinghand knows Pandain is lying, so why would he be willing accept lynching someone else? Blazinghand is a good player, and I've never seen him back down, even when he doesn't know he's right. Why would he be willing to back down here, when he's so sure that Pandain is lying? | ||
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On June 09 2012 00:03 Hyaach wrote: What do you Nav or Shraft or Snarf think happen inbetween the first post and 2nd post by BH? To be honest, I don't really get much of your case. It's badly structured and hard to follow. Can you please point me to the two posts you are mentioning? The only thing that's valid is the part where BH tries to make it seem as if Pandain contradicted himself. (But I don't understand how BH "direcly contradicts himself" in that post.) | ||
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On June 09 2012 00:20 Hyaach wrote: Also BH only voted after VE started the wagon. If he was so sure, why wait till VE to cast the first vote? This I actually missed as I was only reading BH's filter. I'm going to re-read the entire Pandain-event once tonight. | ||
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Then there's also the strangeness about BH not going after Pandain that hard, only voting after VE had already placed his vote, although I think that can be explained by BH wanting to have more to go on when he finally voted (i.e. he wanted to avoid counter-claiming and decided to prod Pandain for a bit more to get something else to base his vote on). | ||
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On June 09 2012 05:24 Artanis[Xp] wrote: This shit is confusing the fuck out of me and I don't have enough time to read things through thoroughly at this time. My initial read on Hyaach was that his early comments were too dumb to be mafia. His RB claim after BH claimed to be RBed also feels like it's not something a mafia would do. Either he's playing dumb, or he's telling the truth. I wasn't planning on killing BH today but with no day kills it feels like someone has to be lying. The thing with BH not instantly bussing Pandain after his claim doesn't work in his favor either. My gut says Blazinghand, and that's where my vote goes. ##Vote: Blazinghand Well, as already pointed out, if the roleblocked Mafia didn't claim the roleblock it would be apparent to the RB that his target is scum. | ||
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Hyaach said that he tried to jail VE. I agree that if we have a town RB, he should claim. I don't think the chance of blocking another Mafia NK is high, and I think the advantage of having two almost confirmed townies (RB + BH/Hyaach) is bigger than that of having a "non-claimed" RB. | ||
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On June 09 2012 20:20 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Okay, it seems that for Hyaach to be town there needs to be both a Town roleblocker and a Jailkeeper. For Blazinghand's claim, there just needs to be a vig and a mafia roleblocker. Going to go occam's razor on this. ##Unvote ##Vote: Hyaach It is not that easy. If you assume that there is only a vig and a Mafia RB, you would still have to explain why Hyaach would lie about getting getting about 5-6 hours after BH had already claimed his roleblock. It makes no sense to lie about that as scum. | ||
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Red name means Scum and green name means Town. + Show Spoiler [Assuming that no one lied about being…] + Scenario 1: BH | Hyaach Comments: Is it likely that we have a vigilante, Town RB, and Scum RB? Why would Hyaach claim JK? Scenario 2: BH | Hyaach Comments: For this to work we need to have Scum RB, Town RB and a JK (if Hyaach isn't fake-claiming JK while still being town). Is claiming vigilante worth it for BH? Scenario 3: BH | Hyaach Comments: Highly unlikely. If no one of them are fake-claiming there needs to be a lot of power roles in this game, and why would they be fake-claiming if they are town? Scenario 4: BH | Hyaach Comments : Very unlikely. If this is true they are pulling some huge stunt in order to trick the Town. + Show Spoiler [Assuming that the one being Scum is ly…] + Scenario 5: BH | Hyaach Comments: Why would Hyaach lie about getting roleblocked 5-6 hours after BH claimed his roleblock? It does not make sense. This scenario is not likely. Scenario 6: BH | Hyaach Comments: Why would BH fake claim vig? I don't think the gains outweighs the risks. People were not super suspicious of him at his time of claiming, and claiming only leads to drawing more attention, something that you want to avoid as Scum. However, it could lead to getting a bit more Town credibility (not enough to justify fake-claiming, in my opinion). I have omitted scenarios where the Townie lies about getting roleblocked, as I don't think that fake-claiming a roleblock makes any sense whatsoever as Town. Out of these scenarios I think that scenario one, two and six are much more likely than the others, so in the end it boils down to whose claim I think is more trustworthy. I think that the best way to handle this situation is to have our Town RB (if we have one) claim. Also, if the Town RB does not claim, he's either stupid or he does not exist. If we assume that he is not stupid (meaning that he does not exist) we can rule out scenario one and two, leaving only scenario six remaining. Am I oversimplifying things or does anyone else think that this makes sense? TL;DR: Best way of solving this is to have our Town RB claim. | ||
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On June 10 2012 04:29 Blazinghand wrote: God, has it ever occurred to anyone that this "town RB" that is required for Hyaach's explanation to exist hasn't claimed because he doesn't exist? Clearly the real town JK isn't claiming because claiming right now would be terrible. But why'd he lie about getting RBed? All it did was strengthen the Hyaach vs BH situation (i.e. made it seem more likely that one of you are scum) which is something he would want to avoid if he is scum. I still haven't really decided who to vote for, actually. I am considering switching my vote onto you, but I have not made up my mind yet. | ||
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On June 10 2012 05:29 Artanis[Xp] wrote: It was looking like either one of them was going to get lynched. Claiming a power role if you know mafia has one isn't a bad idea, especially if it means you either get the other guy mislynched first or expose a town power role that was forced to counterclaim. It seems like a decent strategy from the position he was in. If you read more carefully, you'll notice that I am talking about his RB claim, not his JK claim. | ||
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On June 10 2012 06:07 Blazinghand wrote: Well, if Shraft was RBed, he has to claim it, doesn't he? If he doesn't claim it, the real JK knows he's hiding it and is scum. You are missing the point. Read his original reason for voting. We are arguing from the premise that there is only one roleblocker, meaning that either you or Hyaach is scum. Voting for Hyaach means that he has to explain why Hyaach fake-claimed RB 6 hours after you claimed your roleblock. | ||
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