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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 31 2012 07:58 VisceraEyes wrote: NEITHER DOES MOST OF THIS SHIT NOW ANSWER THE QUESTION see. That's town VE. But that could be faked now that I mentioned it  I should have just shut up and kept telling people to do what I want them to do instead of explaining why. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 31 2012 08:25 supersoft wrote: I know. But far too late. At this point of times there was no denyal that Zealos looked bad. It was just obvious. He really looked bad. However VE just mentions that fact but doesnt do anything about it.+ Moreover: GambitX32 - (4) Blazinghand VisceraEyes Mr. Wiggles Ange777 Zealos - (3) marvellosity Toadesstern wherebugsgo Dont you think it's remarkable that he refused to switch so far? even after we got toad claiming that Gamb is mason... and even wbg switched on zeal. well claimed that gamb is a hard word. You know I like to use hard words like "confirmed" and stuff like that when it's really an exaggeration but I GUESS, as in I HAVE A FEELING HE MIGHT BE a mason is more like it :p Could be a coincidence could be true, idk. However the right action should be the same we had yesterday: Just lynch someone else while waiting for the guy to "confirm" himself or not. It might be he's waiting until the last second of the deadline because he's scared we might lynch him but whatever, I would be in his shoes as well as a townie and as a mafia. For now we should just lynch someone else. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Even if he is mafia, let's just assume he is for a second, he wouldn't know the timing of the pm's either unless he got shot and protected. I think a vig would have claimed a shot at supersoft if that happened so I'm assuming he either is a mafia who got no pm himself or is a town who got no pm himself. Either way, what he says it's an assumption but that's not alignment indicating but rather an indication of boldness or taking something for granted when it apprently isn't according to you guys. Thats one of those questions VE likes to ask when mafia and 3rd party: They're getting us nowhere because no matter of his alignment, the answer will be the same. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 31 2012 08:54 Probulous wrote: You can do better than that. If you want my vote, convince me. [image blocked] | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 31 2012 09:03 Probulous wrote: Face meet palm  How exactly is asking how you "knew" that hit PMs were late when you weren't hit, role fishing? What he said: You asked him about this to find out wether or not he is one of the medics / jailers who protected someone ELSE. They get a pm as well. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On top of that VE gives me a really 3rd party vibe. Supersoft might be in there as well, have to see how people flip first | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Another post from my diary That being said I'm fairly convinced the vets are posting no matter of alignment and the not-vets are hiding between lurkers if they're mafia, which makes it so hard to figure them out. => I really want to lynch into a vet because they're way easier to read. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
7. This game follows Extended Majority Lynch. In order for a player to be lynched, they must reach majority before the deadline, or else a no lynch will take place. Majority is #Players alive / 2 Rounded up. Pretty sure that's wrong and it's rounded down +1 because if the written thing is right majority would be 14, however it should be 15. 28 / 2 => 14, rounded up = 14 => makes no sense 28 / 2 +1 => 14, rounded down +1 = 14 +1 = 15 => much more like it. So we will need at least 8 votes on VE. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 31 2012 17:04 wherebugsgo wrote: I like how everyone's all "let's lynch zealos gogogogogo lynch zealos gg" and then Meapak wants to kill VE so everyone switches and is all like "let's go lynch VE gogogogogo" If VE turns out to be town then I'm going to be fairly suspicious of those people who derailed the zealos lynch by moving their votes. Basically anyone whose name is not Meapak, since he's pretty much confirmed town. For now though my vote stays on Zealos since I'm more confident that he's scum. Based on VE's past few games I can't say I have what it takes to get a proper read on him. well mz did a nice case and I told people to vote VE without explaining why as a masno. That's pretty convincing. I mean if I look at the guys who have voted for VE I have to say that I like most of them. This manason dude is a bit weird because I have no idea who that guy is. No idea what maju is yet. Kita depens on the flips of other people while looking bad himself. I mean yeah, but the rest is just fine :3 | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 31 2012 19:35 supersoft wrote: wrong. Get VE to shoot wiggles. VE wanted to lynch gambit. I really think gambit is a dead end. The only thing that makes me think wiggles is town is the fact that he ended up being mayor. A "normal" mafia would not want to be mayor because he knows he'll die eventually. So I'd say it's kinda likely that we're either wrong about wiggles and he's town or he's simply bulletproof. Either way shooting won't solve the problem and I don't want to lynch him right now either. VE looks like the best target by far. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
This time he was looking good on the surface. Looking like some guy who was not sure about what's going on, looking like some guy trying to help town in figuring out what's going on but as MZ has already pointed out it only looked like that on the surface and in reality it has no basic point or idea behind. He just did those things for the sake of doing them. Now as you can see VE hasn't done any weird shenanigans ever since the game started. As mentioned that is because he is trying to look normal and good, also you will realize that he only started behaving weird to a point where everyone agreed that it's weird and not just my funny "he's looking good therefore he has to be bad) after being pressured a lot. Look at the case he did after he got pointed at. Now look at mafia LI Look at the weird shit he has done before being pointed at. That's right, you won't find any. Look at that weird vote from gambit to zealos to someone else I can't remember. WBG has pointed that out somewhere saying something along the lines "That's incredible scummy but it's VE and VE does weird things as town" and here's where I disagree. VE does weird things as town ON HIS OWN. However, this time all the weird things started happening AFTER we got that case on him and people voting him. Look at his claim. Wtf is that supposed to be? "olol I can shoot someone, that proves I am town!" I doubt it. And don't even try to look for KP, mafia will make sure to not spread out their kills the next night leaving us in a situation where we won't know wether or not someone was doublestacked and VE is good or wether VE is just a liar. His claim is utterly useless for determinating his alignment and he knows that. Anyways wanted to post more but have to leave, my train is going to arrive in 15 mins... cya later. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 31 2012 21:26 Hyaach wrote: we can WIFOM with VE after he shot someone we want. and doublestacked is actually good. That's 1 less death a night. How does that not benefit town? I missed my train, now I have to sit here another hour (*hinthint* this is not a breadcrumb. I'm not some freaky 3rd party trying to find the conductor to get into some secret place!)Anyways: doublestack means either wbg, mz or I am dead. That's not helping town at all. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
The lines that are awkwardly long (in german as well) don't really fit the pattern, but whatever, here we go: (0:16) "We lynch mafia day one" is what your tatto says "lynch mafia until they're gone" that used to be your ways (0:27) It's called a No-lynch and we really just can't. You are considering it and you don't want to talk about it but it's what you really want. (0:39) But is that still mafia? Doubting yoursell until I frown Is that still mafia? Considering everyone to be town That's about as brilliant as a two year old infant Is that still mafia? - I don't think so (1:12) You used to be involved when we lynched into a vet this time you just proclaimed we shouldn't take the bet (1:23) Since this game started you stopped caring about a lynch for that matter You are claiming to vote a nobody to make sure the votes are scatter'd (1:35) But is that still mafia? Doubting yourself until I frown Is that still mafia? Considering everyone to be town I don't want to spoil the party but do we really need to screw this Is that still mafia? - nope (1:55) You're not willing to lynch anyone you're behaving a little bit like everyone's in this zone that's protecting shit out of everyone (2:07) That's not going to win the game That's really such a shame because you're the one to blame I'm not allowed to flame (2:16) (Because) is that still mafia? Doubting yoursell until I frown Is that still mafia? Considering everyone to be town you should just ask yourself what people postgame will say themselv' Is that still mafia? - I don't think so Long story short: Stop being pussies and vote VE. Zealos' lynch is a good one as well but VE's lynch is way better. If Zealos (somehow) flips town we're exactly in the same situation we were d1. Some guys saying "well, that's bad" and noone really cares because noone knows him good enough to make a proper read out of him on d1 or d2. So get some balls and lynch VE to make up for the most horribad lynch I've ever seen on d1. And most importantly: GET IN HERE AND VOTE, I DON'T WANT A NO-LYNCH BECAUSE 20 PEOPLE HAVEN'T VOTED AND THEN SUDDENLY ALL VOTE IN THE LAST SECOND | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On June 01 2012 00:28 Mattchew wrote: Reposting We have the best possible night for town, and we want to lynch a claimed blue, vet? We should take this time to lynch lurkers and scummy newbs, because we have been afforded the opportunity to by our protection roles. Think about who you want to make your reads on later in the game, someone you've played with and is active, or someone that posts once a cycle and you hve never played with and is like flipping a coin. Lynching VE is straight up stupid and if he flips town, it is taking away a scum night kill and a town KP. Do you really think scum are going to shoot players like cwave, hyaach, grush, manason, gambit? These are the players we should be lynching (or SnB cause he claimed scum and I mean just look at his vote on VE that leaves a disclaimer about VE flipping town, 90% reasoning being meta while a quick 1 line about VE's vote switching) because when we get to the late game, these are the players that lose town games the point is, VE claimed blue without a reason. His claim does us nothing. Mafia or SK can easily fake being a vig and he should know that himself. If he had actually claimed something like a VT I would have maybe considered lynching Zealos instead but Vig is just way to convenient to be true. Why do you want to lynch into lurkers or scummy newbs? I'd say the case on VE is equally strong as the case on Zealos or better. On top of that VE is a player we all know, so noone can hide behind a "well duh, guess he was some unreadable newbie who did bullshit" excuse. If someone like hyaach flips town, what's your plan for the next night or day? We have a shitton of lurkers and I am certain everyone, or at least the majority of people who are mafia but aren't considered vet is trying to hide between those lurkers. How are you supposed to decide wether it's cwace, hyaach, grush, manason or gambit? Are those the only lurkers? What's with phagga (is he still in the game or replaced?), Hassybaby (he usually posts WAY MORE), sToFu (same as phagge, is he still in the game?) and Kenpachi ? Are all 9 of them mafia? If not how in the world are we supposed to differentiate between them when frankly, a case and scummy behavior is probably a town sign for those people as they're at least trying while the rest is trying it's best to shut up and not post a thing. We lost a complete cycle d1 due to wiggles lynch giving us 0 information. Luckily Mafia screwed up as well bringing us in the same situation we had before the game started. We're not in a good position. We basicly had a NL d1 and no kills (thanks to awesome protection) N1 making it effectively d1 although it might look like town is in a good position because we had no kills n1. There are different "camps" in this game and we desperately need to know which camp is just plain wrong, which camp is right and who's mafia. We don't get that by "policy-lynching" into lurkers hoping to hit mafia. Yeah we could hit mafia but I'm not going to lynch based on that. And no I'm not saying we're lynching VE for information. VE is the best guy for lynch right now AND he's giving a shitton of information on flip no matter what. That's a Jackpot for us. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On June 01 2012 01:12 austinmcc wrote: I agree with Mattchew that we're in a good spot after N1. Toad, you're being overly pessimistic when you say we lost a complete cycle D1, because mafia lost a complete cycle too. Having an effective D1 on D2 is a fantastic position, we're effectively up 3 or more townies on where we could be. We make up the information deficit over time, and moving forward a day without town losses really helps out there. However, I'd still much rather play the "lazy" route with the lurkers. The argument that waiting a day on pushing a VE lynch gives us more information applies equally to the lurkers. We've got players that didn't vote D1, haven't voted D2, won't have posted for 2 cycles. If they get modkilled, we also get information from that. To a large extent, that negates the value of waiting for information in my mind, because it cuts both ways (unless we're discussing targetting only the layer of lurkers that are posting just enough to avoid modkills, which becomes more reasonable). Yes we're getting some "raw" information over time, like who looks scummy or who looks good but that could be all wrong based on assumptions that someone else looks good. For example if you take me for a townie, I take someone else for a townie and we both push the same guy it could be easily said we've more information. The first guy is most likely townie because the townie and the probably-townie share the same thoughts and conclusions. However, that could be totally wrong and that "raw" information isn't giving us a thing unless we lynch into someone to show wether or not our assumptions are correct. Lynching into Zealos gives me 0 information on my assumptions up to this point and neither will it give someone else a lot of information. Lynching VE however is awesome either way: Either because it shows me that I'm horribly wrong about my assumptions or it shows me that I was right and should keep on looking into the same direction. Again, not saying we're lynching VE for that reason, we're lynching him because he's scummy as it can get, it's just that the other scummy guy has less advantages combined to his lynch. We need to clear out who's right and who's wrong right now or this bullshit discussion we had for the past 90hours or something like that will keep on because everyone will be like "wäääääh, but I want to lynch THAT guy, and not your guy". We can't keep on playing like that or town will be scattered all over the place. If I'm wrong I'm wrong and I'm sorry but I HIGHLY doubt it. If I am wrong I will reconsider my assumptions. If I'm right I'm right and awesome. If I am right we know that the other guys were wrong and they'll have to reconsider their assumptions. We need that right now and we need some hard facts that are telling us something about other people. VE is the scummiest player in here AND he gives a shitton of HARD FACTS about other people. Zealos is equally or about equally scummy but if that guy flips town we'll keep on questioning ourselves who is right and who is wrong. I don't want that. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
You lynch into people who think are scummy to get peoples opinion on them and to get mafia. You shoot into people that are hard to read because they're not posting because lynching them gives 0 information. Let our vigs do the job of cleaning that mess up. If we shoot someone like VE and he flips that's less information than we'd get from a lynch either way. Lynching or shooting into a lurker however makes no difference, except for the fact that we're wasting our lynch. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On June 01 2012 01:26 marvellosity wrote: Toad, ss thinks a Zealos flip will give info about Wiggles, do you not agree? exactly. Maybe a little information if the guy flips red but that's not an issue because if he flipped red I'm already happy about that. If Zealos somehow flips green I know nothing about someone else. Neither about wiggles nor about some other guy. Not even about Supersoft. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On June 01 2012 01:32 VisceraEyes wrote: Toadesstern, what information does me flipping exactly what I say, Gaz the Town Vig? I want you to put in in the thread now, because you need to be held accountable for it when I flip. What does that mean about the other players when I flip town? If you SOMEHOW manage to flip town it makes supersoft look bad, it makes wiggles look good and it makes kita look bad. It makes Zealos look nullish, it makes WBG look good. Obviously I could say something about all the small names but that'd take a while. | ||
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