##vote BM
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papapanda
Taiwan326 Posts
##vote BM | ||
papapanda
Taiwan326 Posts
I believe the lynching of BM was orchestrated by the red. The plan for red might have been to target veterans who are slightly inactive. As we can see, Katina passively pushed for lynching of BM. On May 04 2012 05:05 Katina wrote: BM has been not been his usual posting self lately. He likes to lurk when he is Mafia. He made a few brief posts early on then disappeared into La La land. So that is something to keep an eye on. Keeping this is mind, I would like to bring up marvellosity. 1. His first few post was to bring Palmer into attention. No, he didn't vote for him, but just bringing him up and possibly started a bandwagon is good enough. 2. He gives his read on NT, saying he "looks the scummiest" but then votes for BM(yes, I voted BM too, I will explain my change of heart if it isn't clear enough-_-), claiming same reason as layabout. His willingness to switch sides so fast is a little scummy. 3. He defends Katina by basically saying she has odd posting style. By association, this also is a little suspicious and him adding on saying that DoYouHas nailed it actually made it sound even worst for me. I would like to conclude by saying that this was pieced together AFTER I assumed he was red. I would like to ask others to help me analyse marvellosity from the point of view of blue. Basically: FoS on marvellosity | ||
papapanda
Taiwan326 Posts
On May 07 2012 03:00 layabout wrote: Who is more likely to know if one of the mafia team is about to be modkilled? Members of the mafia team who can communicate privately and should know if their team mate is there (no) Members of town who can only see the thread and will have no idea who is watching the thread (yes) Interesting idea mentioned by layabout. The WIFOM would be the mafia knew katina/206 would be modkilled, should they... A) backstab katina/206 and later claim "ooh I called it, dawgs!" [grush?], or should they... B) vote BM and not backstab in hope of katina/206 returning or avoiding someone analyzing their actions as option A)?[layabout/marvel/JW?] On May 07 2012 04:23 Eiii wrote: So anyway, I'm going to vote for layabout. All the other accusations are good, but one thing most people are missing is that if we had lynched BM and the modkills hadn't happened, we'd be completely lost right now. Lynching a lurker who had done almost literally nothing because he 'might hurt town' gives us zero information. We'd all still be running around in the chaos of day one on day two if kat/206 hadn't fucked up. Between that and the kat defense, I'm throwing my vote on him. If lay flips red then marvel is worth looking at just because of being so associated with both layabout and kat day one. I think lynching layabout is a good option because it can give us hints regardless of his alignment. More so, like Eiii mentions above, if he flips red, but also to some extent points to grush if he flips blue. I also agree with Eiii that if layabout IS red, marvel should be our next lynch. However, I don't agree with Eiii on me being a good shoot option. T-T Afterthought after F5: layabout, I think if you are blue, grush might be our next suspect. | ||
papapanda
Taiwan326 Posts
On May 07 2012 05:15 marvellosity wrote: Good god. Are you calling layabout scum or not? And if so, why? Useless post of connections without even making a stance on layabout's alignment, yukyukyukyukyuk. Yes, I believe layabout is scum and HoS on you too marvellosity, as well as JW. Layabout was one of the forces behind lynching BM. I voted BM because I thought he was scum after some people mentioned he posted in other threads, so he chose not to post in this one instead of forgetting (layabout was one of them, by the way). Comparatively, layabouts reasons are purely "policy". In fact, if he did not think BM was suspicious, a better choice could have been Mementoss, blubb or grush. And like so many others have said, his defense on Katina is scummy. Further more, my read on layabout's play so far led me to believe he would not have backstabbed Katina/206 if he was scum, as he already defended Katina. So this fits into my WIFOM scenario. But this is just a cherry on top of the brownie fudge banana split of his case made from others and myself. | ||
papapanda
Taiwan326 Posts
On May 05 2012 05:43 layabout wrote: Katina few posts have been critical of the disruptive play at the beginning, and acted to stamp out the bad. Katina Implies that the "blub scumslip affair" is stupid (it was) by implying that the accusations are rather hastily made (which further implies that they are poorly thought out) katina points out that BH is being a big drama queen. Katina points out that the game is hours old and that there has not been time to contribute in response to BH's vote on her for not contributing. Criticises grush for sheeping a baseless vote. Points out how destructive the "lets all vote for no real reason" is and tells the perpetrators to stop. If Katrina does anything suspicious it is the way in which she puts attention on BM. She tells us that he tend to lurk when he is mafia that he posted earlier and is now lurking. He isn't lurking at the moment. Lurking is playing passively, posting infrequently or posting with consistently low content. BM is inactive in this game since these are his only posts: + Show Spoiler + On May 03 2012 06:46 Bill Murray wrote: I will extend the day and shorten the next night by one hour. Good luck and have fun. Nobody died yet. But don't worry. what On May 03 2012 06:46 Bill Murray wrote: extended days?! hurray! Both of which of from the very beginning of the game | ||
papapanda
Taiwan326 Posts
At Paqman/layabout: layabout your defense is saying katina was talking sense, so even though DoYouHas came out with an analysis pointing katina as scum, you went with BM who wasn't making sense/playing the game? "making sense" seems unclear to me as an explanation. Do you mean logical? not contradicting? knowing what's actually going on? Most people are more or less logical. Anyone who is not would've been modkilled/lynched before BM. Again, if one is contradicting in anyway, they will be lynched even before the illogical players. No one really knows whats going on except the mafia in this game, especially in the early stages. Layabout saying katina made sense is like saying raindrops are wet. Please further clarify your defense for me. Thanks. | ||
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Jokes aside, I didn't find DYH's analysis as convincing(will explain later, want to get this post out before deadline) The only thing that is tugging at me is blubb's "slip" from day1, however, I don't find it to be worth lynching. So, I have a neutral read on blubb. | ||
papapanda
Taiwan326 Posts
If blubb is scum, I think he is worth looking into, jumping boat last second. | ||
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But no matter, it wasn't the case anyways. | ||
papapanda
Taiwan326 Posts
Also happy birthday N_T, didn't say it before because I wanted to say it on the day but i forgot! | ||
papapanda
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I don't get grush at all. He seems to be not too great of a player but so far he has been making good calls, a little too good. FoS grush | ||
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papapanda
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![]() well heres my neck. | ||
papapanda
Taiwan326 Posts
On May 09 2012 06:04 Blazinghand wrote: This is good news! We didn't lose any power roles, and there are only 2 mafia remaining. I'm thinking Layabout and N_T for the remaining 2 scum. Sorry for being wrong about you Ghost_403. ##vote: Nova_Terra Let's get it right this time guys Interesting to note that all players that have died have been non-power roles. | ||
papapanda
Taiwan326 Posts
I have made cases before against both marvellosity and layabout. For marvellosity, he hasn't been making further actions that link him to scum except his mention of Kepachi (dismiss-able) and maybe his hard defense for layabout (who is scum IMO). That said, layabout is the better lynch option because of his support of katina, kenpachi(kinda), and just his general lynch the easy guy attitude. Wish he would actually defend himself instead of telling me to go read the thread:< | ||
papapanda
Taiwan326 Posts
On May 09 2012 07:05 Blazinghand wrote: Ah, that's interesting, May 9th Nova_Terra! However, I have another player here who disagrees with you. His name is May 7th Nova_Terra! You should argue with him: I can see why you want to lynch N_T, but like N_T said, layabout has been on the proven wrong side one time too many for me. | ||
papapanda
Taiwan326 Posts
On May 09 2012 10:18 Mementoss wrote: Also playing with and looking into Nova_Terra saying "I think he is just a bad townie" does not suffice to me. As I said before his reads may not always be right as town but he actively tries to promote discussion and makes a good effort to make cases. There is only one situation I can think of that would make Nova not scum but I'm not going to go into it because its not solid and more of a gut feeling. I want to clarify you post here: you are defending Nova_Terra, you say he IS a townie, and he is NOT bad, as he is trying to promote discussion/good effort into cases? This can't be right. Are you referring to another game? Mementoss you made cases against both grush and N_T, however I don't think you have yet done a comparison on the two. So please expand on why N_T > grush(If that is your stance). Anyhow, I would be interested to hear the the situation later on in the game. I am sad that I am on the same posting level as sinensis. I hope I had contributed a little bit more than that. | ||
papapanda
Taiwan326 Posts
N_T > grush as lynch candidate. | ||
papapanda
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On May 10 2012 04:17 Nova_Terra wrote: Just got back from yet another apple store, looks like im gonna have to take an hour train ride to get to a place where teh iphone can be repaired for around 150$ isnt it wonderful So anyway, as I promised i will be making an effort to do some analysis, i decided to do a bit of filter analysis on papapanda Please read his filter along with this case papapandas filter is surprisingly short. I didnt realize this until i actually went through his filter. Less than 2 pages. Papapanda starts off the game decently, actually. He seems to post some minor analysis on behavior at the beginning of the game in regards to blubb and grush. I made a neat compilation of all your post into a word document and counted your words to be 2653. I excluded all text in quotes. This data is up to this post. On May 10 2012 04:56 Nova_Terra wrote: cant tell if forgotten or actually made it out of the scumreads I also made one for myself, ofcourse excluding all text in quotes, and the count is 2213(not including this post, which has 280 words). 4 pages? 4 pages of spam maybe. On May 10 2012 04:17 Nova_Terra wrote: However, at the same time, i noticed a bit of noncommittal behavior on his thoughts on blubb. "i thought he probably misread, but im still somewhat suspicious" just say you have a neutral read if you're neutral on him. Then he kinda tries to make a very early bandwagon target. I dont like that. I was not neutral on Blubb at that stage of the game, your summary of my post is very underrepresentative. It should be"I thought he misread, but his defense made me suspicious." I didn't think that was enough evidence to lynch him ATM. On May 10 2012 04:17 Nova_Terra wrote: Then theres a bunch of 1 liners, with a question that makes it seem like he is contributing. he likes to continually state that he will lynch/unvote blubb, while at the same time saying nothing else about anyone. another thing to note is he puts a "placeholder vote" on blubb in case he cant make the deadline, effectively setting himself up to not be there and not post if he doesnt have to. Then he jumps on the GRUSH BE HELPFUL NOT THIS SHIT "contribution" bandwagon. I would like to remind you that I did, in fact, post afterwards when I realize that I would not miss the deadline. On May 10 2012 04:17 Nova_Terra wrote: Now here comes the parts that i think are pretty scummy. This post goes like this SOFT DEFENSE SOFT DEFENSE AGREEMENT AGREEMENT SOFT DEFENSE and fluff. then he says he is totally undecided. come on, really? you can make a post spamming agreement and soft defense, but you cant make a solid read? No, I couldn't make a solid read because I didn't have enough information. This is your read: On May 05 2012 06:00 Nova_Terra wrote: In accordance with popular demand, i will share my top scumread which is currently Mementoss (not based on OMGUS) mementoss starts off suggesting to policy lynch two people, etc. Makes a few totally unneccessary 1 liners, and then when he is called out on it he goes NO WAIT i has reason, then decided to teach us, which just came off freaking weird. Then he goes aggressive on layabout, throwing suspicion while not doing much of anything, then joins the Grush did something scummy this looks really bad group. not original. then after blazing notes something on me he joins in that too, and makes remarks in an unsure way, seeming to want to be able to backtrack if necessary. then, when called out on it, he goes into defensive aggression mode and suddenly gains massive confidence which hadnt been in his play before. Overall 1liners Enlightens us on 1 liners throws suspicion while not doing much at all joins scummy bandwagon seems unsure agrees with an Oh i noticed the same thing! makes arguments based on my meta, which is questionable entirely based on the fact that i never play this lurky, town or scum randomly gets massively confident, as opposed to his earlier play, its as if someone told him to be more sure and so ##Vote: Mementoss Seems to fit yourself better then mementoss. solid? No. On May 10 2012 04:17 Nova_Terra wrote: Next comes a puny case of marvellosity after saying a conspiracy theory about how BM's lynching was orchestrated by scum, which seems mighty convenient coming from someone who soft defended BM and didnt take part in his lynch Then he reposts an idea from layabout and says its "interesting", then agrees again with someone else and sets up a cute little train "marv next after layabout" setting up for future lynch. Goes on to criticize defense again and agains, and now he goes back to a neutral read on blubb. and says that the only reason to think blubb was scum was becuase of his slip day 1 (wait, didnt he say that he thought this wasnt scummy and he could have easily done the same thing?) And some more 1 liners. Later, "i can see why you want to lynch N_T but like N_T said" MORE AGREEMENT, MORE AGREEMENT, NOOOOOOOOOOOOO PUSH SOMETHING OTHER THEN LAYABOUT/MARV MOOOOOOORE Then he seems like hes making a misunderstanding about mementoss on purpose allaround, Agrees a shitton, 1 liners a ton, and tunnels a good bit, soft defends so he can use it later so right now i feel comfortable putting a vote on him ##Vote: papapanda Keyword is last section is "Agree". Yes, I will admit if I am seeing a player agreeing all the time, it raises some suspicion that he is trying to stay off the radar. However, this is how I talk/post; if you want I can try to change that but it might/not work. If you feel like this is enough to lynch me, I won't pressure you for more reason, but I want you to seriously reconsider. I think I have my two scums in layabout and marv. While I am definitely keeping my head up for other suspicious people, this is where my focus lies. If you want to find someone with little posts, look at sinensis. | ||
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