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Wheel of Fortune Mini Mafia - Page 2
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
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Radfield
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Radfield
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Radfield
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On April 24 2012 19:33 Bluelightz wrote: Sup bros, back Answering Ace, disregard meta, I just found it weird that Radfield chose to with hold information town 'could' have in the form of a case on VE, but then he just sheeped, I compared that to Radfield in Im A Cop You Idiot where when he made a case when he was suspicious of BH. Reading thread. I think you misunderstand what happened. I was not withholding information that could have formed a case on VE. I was voting him specifically because I wanted to see how he reacted with a bit of pressure. In other games I have played with VE he has buckled a bit under pressure. Unfortunately, I did not have time to properly follow up my vote with accusations etc. Hence my pressure was pretty non-existent. Ace wrote: @Radfield: Well you sure made it back in time with a thoughtful little post. But I don't agree with "dont lynch a strong Town player" theory. We lynch people that are shown to have scummy behavior regardless of past performance or reputation. None of us as far as I know, know each others' alignment. So just assuming that stance is ridiculous. I also don't buy that you didn't really want to lynch VE. If VE was at 5 votes and made that same post would you really have showed up to stop the wagon? If VE was at 5 votes then presumably he would have done something to garner those votes in the meantime. In which case obviously I would readjust depending on the situation. If the exact same situation had occurred (VE not posting) and he was up to 5 votes, then yes I would have left my vote, since the pressure I was looking for would have materialized. The key though is how he would have responded. Also, you know as well as anyone that I die early and often, so why are you trying(weakly) to get me lynched off some weak reason? You also know as well as anyone that if I'm given some time to play, I generate fairly accurate reads by around the end of Day 2. So why are you slinging mud my way when there is no cause to do so? Sit back, see if my reads match yours, see if I'm still alive when I shouldn't be, and THEN tell me why I'm scummy. Right now your vote on me does nothing but reduce the likelihood of other town players listening to me. It was not a serious shot at getting me lynched, only a hit at my credibility. | ||
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Radfield
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On April 24 2012 19:37 Bluelightz wrote: Radfield, if you have ANY other reason's on why VE is scum, can you post it? thanks. My initial concern was his first 3 posts seemed off to me. Since then I don't get a strong feeling either way on him. I have him as a null read. However, that is a null read in a game where I have a lot of town reads. He's one of the few players I'm keeping a close eye on. Sandro, how much time do you expect to devote to this game? Are you planning on letting Toad do the majority of the posting, or do you think you'll be around? | ||
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Radfield
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On April 24 2012 20:33 prplhz wrote: @Bluelightz, Radfield Can you give me some more input on MrZentor please. I still think that he is the scummiest in this thread. I know that you guys think that it's not mafia like to draw attention to themselves with an overly aggressive style like that, but I'm arguing that it looks forced and fake (and it's not townie style either!). With the amount of ad hominem jabs he's taken at me and Forumite he's either scum or an asshole and from the communication I just had with him in Space Station, he seemed like a really cool guy. He's just ignoring me now which makes absolutely no sense to me, I imagine that a townie would either try to explain stuff to me (since I'm actively trying to understand) or he would call me scum but he does neither and it seems really fake. I'm really angry with myself for not just pushing his lynch harder yesterday and getting it over with, he's going to be such an annoying factor in this game for me from now on no matter what his alignment is. What do you think about the no-lynch? Isn't it weird that town didn't just scramble for "information lynch" or whatever? I see it as a huge mistake that we didn't just lynch MrZentor yesterday. I should just have pushed his lynch harder. I think Zentor is town. His posting was casual and confident to start the game, he seems unafraid of consequences in his posting and is not looking to make friends. He is also seemingly shooting from the hip, posting whatever seems to come to him when it comes to him. Additionally he has been confident and cocky about his own towniness, above and beyond what I would expect of a mafia player. On the flip side, his case on you prplhz was somewhat stretched and fabricated. Of course any case made a few hours into Day 1 will look like that but it still didn't look great. I see him as pretty surely town, and a bad Day 2 target. Ace, if we're both alive on Day 2 we can discuss this further, but I'm not going to devote any more time to it right now. | ||
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Radfield
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My comments regarding no-lynch is that we don't get any truly tangible benefits from a no-lynch. For instance, imagine if by no lynching yesterday we would give ourselves an extra mislynch down the stretch(ie, push lylo from Day 4 to Day 5). In that situation, a no-lynch has tangible real benefits. When I said " it doesn't really do us any good", I did not mean that a no-lynch is bad. Simply that it literally doesn't do us a lot of good. In this situation, I think a no-lynch was better than a mislynch(which is not always the case). Not to mention that I was voting 5 minutes before the deadline in an obvious no-lynch situation  | ||
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Radfield
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On April 25 2012 02:06 Snarfs wrote: Okay. Another one. If you're town then you're likely to die tonight anyways, so why save your reads for the next 5 hours rather than give them now? If you're going to die, I would like a chance to discuss your reads with you before that happens. Also, it seems more likely that scum would let you live if you were wrong than that they would be more inclined to kill you if you're right. They're probably going to assume you're right until you say something wrong. Just WIFOM, I know, but a thought  Mainly because I didn't think I would have time to before now. Also, if I do die tonight, I don't think you can really read any more into my reads than if I live. Mafia will kill me or let me live regardless of how accurate my reads are. Anyways, here's what I'm looking at after 1 sweep through the game. I guarantee these reads will change, some drastically. People talk a lot about not giving town reads, but I don't really agree with that. I think my strength at this game comes because i have good town reads, so I'm sharing them now. Keep in mind however that this is only Night 1, and these reads are necessarily weaker than normal. Zentor I have commented on already. I think his play is strongly town aligned this game, though I have no meta to compare to. He's been cavalier in his actions and attitude, and nothing he has done really rubs me the wrong way. His case on prplhz was weak, but I don't think it stemmed from a mafia mindset. SamuelLJackson I have difficulty with. My normal scum hunting heuristics fail me when it comes to Toad. I mentioned in 'I'm a Cop you Idiot' that I struggle with scum players who put in a lot of effort and post a lot of content(whether good content or bad). Toad falls heavily into that category, and has fooled me the last two times we have played together(him scum, me town). However, Sandro does NOT fall into that category. In my mind Sandro has a fairly well established scum meta, and this is to be far less active than normal. So far his activity level fits squarely with him being scum. I won't say I have a scum read on these two, but I am leaning that way. At any rate, I expect them to die quickly(especially if a SK exists), and if they last till lylo they are very likely scum. Snarfs I read as probably town. I like his play so far, as it reminds me of my own at times. He's asking a lot of questions, and poking people when he sees something he doesn't like. However, this is a legit mafia strat as well. Altogether though he lands on the town side for me. VE: Not really sure right now. I need more content, and need to go over his filter a few more times. Solidly null read right now. phagga looks scummy to me right now. That's a day 1 read though, so it could change drastically. I don't intend on building a case right now(I would need to spend some time and make sure), but something looks off. prplhz, prob town. His posting seems pretty standard town prplhz, though I'd really like to see him stop focusing on Zentor as I think that is a dead end. Strongandbig gets bonus points for his mason breadcrumb scheme. Fact is, it's a good plan, and shows a good mindset. He's been reading filters and putting in effort, though I don't agree with his snarfs post. So far I see strong town play, though I really don't like his most recent post about Zentor being the SK. That post really rubbed me the wrong way. Tentative town. The only reason I'm not more pro town on him is that his type of play is the type I get thrown by. Forumite has been strong and forward in his posts this game, so far I like them. I've only filtered him the one time though, but I'm leaning town. I need to look into him again, because I can't really remember specifics of why I had him written down prob town. Sbrubbles hasn't been super active, but I like all his posts. In particular I feel like he has some good thought processes going on in his posts, and I have a strong town read on him. He needs to pick up his activity level though, or my read will slowly degrade. Marvellosity. I still need to compare this game to the Newbie VI game I hosted, but so far I think marv is probably town, and not a good lynch. I need to do a bit more legwork though to see if that opinion holds up. bluelightz I have no idea. If I had no prior knowledge of him I would lean strongly scum, but as such.... who knows. Ace I'm not going to worry about. Every game I have ever seen him play(or played with him) I think he is scum(and this game is no exception). I mean that literally - every game. I think the reason Ace has such a strong scum game is because his town play is scummy as hell. As such, I'm hoping mafia(or SK) shoot him tonight, and make my life easier I'll delve into him on Day 2 if we are both alive.Honestly, typing this out is more for me than for anyone else, but here's my current breakdown: Town Sbrubbles(my roommate's convinced he's scum )Zentor Leaning Town snarfs prplhz Forumite? Somewhat Scummy Ace phagga In the event of my death, do with this what you will. I'm heading to dinner and will be back after the Daypost. | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
If we only have 1 kill tonight though, then if the vigilante hits on night 2 he can confirm himself when he claims the extra KP. I can't remember if people are informed about protected hits though(or even if that matters), and I gotta run. | ||
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Radfield
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Last night I used my check on Ace, he flipped clean. Given that only 1 KP was fired last night, and it was predictably fired at Toad/Sandro, I think we can safely assume there is only 1 anti-town KP in play(ie, no SK). This means that mafia cannot kill me without simultaneously confirming Ace as town. Now, why should you believe me? I can state with 100% accuracy that there exists no other 1 shot cops in this game. If you check the C9++ setup, there can never be multiple 1-shot cops. There can be regular cops in conjunction with 1-shot cops, but never more than 1 one-shot. (WBG did state he was altering the setup, but I highly doubt he altered it in that way). If I am faking, than any 1-shot cop out there should be instantly counter-claiming me and coming out with their checks. That will not happen however, as mafia then run the risk of losing a member and confirmed both me and Ace in one swoop. At any rate, this should confirm Ace as town to everyone. It's possibly he is godfather, but with RNGed roles, and only a 75% chance of a GF existing in the setup, I am willing to gamble that I'm not THAT unlucky. Maybe you think me AND ace are scum, but realize that would be an exceptionally foolish play for a stacked mafia team that could probably cruise to victory on standard play. If you think I am mafia, and trying to buy cred(or get ace of my back) by faking a clean check, then you STILL need to see Ace as Town. Ace is Town, I am a cop, and the masons need to claim if they are in play. | ||
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Radfield
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Radfield
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Please show me a single player who has flipped scum(besides chezinu) who has played a scum game like this. It doesn't happen. Yet it's not uncommon at all for townies to play a style like this. The lynch just feels wrong to me. So Zentor, if you ARE town please shape up. You're diverting focus and giving mafia an easy place to park their votes. There are likely no masons, as they would have promptly followed my claim. Snarfs, I'll respond to your points this evening when I have more time. However I DID mess up in that I didn't realize the Framer was non-standard and could cover mafia as well. I'll also likely be building a case on someone I think is scum, but I want to reread them first to be sure. | ||
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Radfield
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I seem to like tying myself to Zentor . Fortunately I am confident he will flip town(and I'm also confident you guys are going to lynch him unless I do something about it). Fortunately(again) I will be around all night.On April 26 2012 01:11 Forumite wrote: Radfield, I don´t think you answered this question; Why are you so sure there MUST be at most one 1-shot DT? Do we have any guarantees at all that this game uses the C9++ setup exactly? On April 25 2012 21:37 Ace wrote: Did wbg post anywhere about how he derived this setup? If not 2 one-shot Cops are not out of play. Bugs confirmed that this was a C9++, but ' balanced for TL standards'. I take that to mean that the roles themselves, and how often they appear have been tweaked slightly. Indeed, we can see that a Miller exists, a Jailkeeper exists, and an Innocent Child does not exist. These are all changes, and all changes that move the C9++ in line with 'TL Standards' imo. I also expect that he altered how often masons appear. However, I think it extremely unlikely that he altered something random like the breakdown of one-shot cops and full cops. That's such minutiae that if he was changing those things, it's really no longer a C9++. Maybe I'm overstepping, but I'm confident that I have a handle on the way in which bugs tweaked the setup. Confident enough to stake my life on it apparently .I think one of phagga or VE should be our lynch today, maybe snarfs. Those three are certainly at the top of my charts right now, though I still have yet to check marv. I'm going to spend some time and break the three of them down this evening, and see which one jumps out at me. A case is forthcoming. | ||
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Radfield
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On April 26 2012 07:45 VisceraEyes wrote: Radfield, you should probably tell me why you think I'm scum bro. I'm a terrible lynch. I'm reading you over right now. I'll let you know if you're a lynchsicle when I finish. | ||
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Radfield
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As such, I'm going to be detailing how certain posts show a mafia oriented mindset. I'd also like to illustrate that I don't think VE really ever gave a crap about who we voted(or who he voted) for Day 1, despite the fact that he spent a lot of time talking about the lynch. On April 22 2012 14:46 VisceraEyes wrote: I think everyone who has posted so far is town. + Show Spoiler + Yes, this is me soft-claiming town. I look forward to hearing from Ace - after his untimely demise in SSM I didn't expect him to be back in a game so quickly. ^^ This really is a bizarre first post. We're a few hours into the game, and VE is declaring that he thinks 5 players(everyone who has posted) are town. Why as a townie would you EVER say that? Why would you ever THINK that? It takes me the better part of Day 1 to begin to pick up town reads, and certainly more than a few posts. Fact is, I agree with VE, that I think all five of those players(prplhz, forumite, zentor, Radfield, SamuelL) ARE town. I think VE came into the thread and saw that, and fired it out. On April 24 2012 06:20 VisceraEyes wrote: Rad made me rethink voting marv - I went back and reread the beginning of his newbie game that I read and he did find himself the victim of early suspicion. This is a completely twisted way to look at meta. The fact that he was found suspicious on day 1 in another game is completely irrelevant to this game. The key is why he looked suspicious, how he was playing, and how it compares to this game. If no one found him suspicious in Newbie VI, that wouldn't matter, because the key is how his play in that game(and alignment) compare to this game. I don't think a town player(at least not one who has played as much as VE) would look at a past game and say, " oh, people found him suspicious in that game, and I find him suspicious in this game, therefore I will reconsider my suspicions". It makes no sense. He actually mentions this again later on, and again uses the same reasoning:+ Show Spoiler + Marv: Marv hasn't given me much to go on today - I'm waiting to see what kind of stuff he puts out today. As I said earlier, meta-wise (Ltd.) it's not unusual for marv to be in hot water D1, so I'm eager to see what he's got. If he fails to produce, I'd like to destroy him. Again, the key is WHY he got in hot water, and how it compares to his play this game. Yet VE is not looking for that. On April 25 2012 08:24 VisceraEyes wrote: Unless Rad and Ace are both scum (imba?) I have to believe that Rad is telling the truth about his claim. However, unlike Radfield I'm not so willing to dismiss the idea that Ace is GF based on "Radfield's luck". However, facts is facts, and I don't see Radfield fake-claiming DT just to clear someone. Therefor, I'm willing to believe Radfield's claim and I'm also willing to reserve judgement on Ace until I see more of his play. Again, we have a failure here from VE. "Unless Rad and Ace are both scum (imba?) I have to believe that Rad is telling the truth about his claim". He is completely ignoring the other scenarios where I could be scum, other than just me and Ace being teammates. Yet VE states that unless they're both scum, Radfield must be town. Lets go through the other options, both of which have been pointed out by other players: I am scum and trying to buy townie cred. I KNOW ace is town aligned, therefore I can get him off my back at a time when he is pressuring me. It was also pointed out that depending on mafia roles, they can surmise the likelihood of a counter-claim. I am SK and trying to buy townie cred. I KNOW ace will go along with me. Either he is scum and now knows I am SK, or he is town and will likely believe my claim. It's a pure gamble though, and a less likely scenario. Me and Ace both being teammates is actually quite unlikely. We would make a very formidable scum-team, and exposing ourselves with such a ballsy claim would be irrational and irresponsible. VE immediately accepts my alignment as town, and in fact only questions whether I would fake claim as a townie. Town players should be questioning whether I am scum or not, NOT questioning whether I am actually vanilla town faking a cop check. Only mafia would question that, because they already KNOW I am town. On April 25 2012 08:31 VisceraEyes wrote: How do you feel about MrZentor? I feel like a lot of people were throwing around "town" a lot in conjunction with MrZentor, so the fact that he didn't die overnight is kinda surprising to me. Taken with his mystifying self-vote immediately into D2, what do you think about him now? Straight up bizarre. No town player should have been remotely suspecting Zentor to get night-killed. There was no way mafia would ever kill him, he was way too massive of a distraction. If you are a townie, ask yourself this: Did you remotely expect Zentor to get killed night 1? This shows a massive disconnect in VE's thought process from what a typical town view should have been. Based on the fact that my scumreads are weak as hell after rereading (those who know me will notice a distinct lack of red text), I think scum are putting in way less effort than most everyone who's posting. One more small contradiction. These two sentences do not make sense together. He claims first that he has no scumreads, yet then immediately claims that scum are putting less effort, which in theory would give you some really easy scumreads. If all the scum are just doggin it, then they should stick out like sore thumbs compared to "most everyone who's posting." AND NOW A WORD FROM OUR SPONSORS! I'd like to take this commercial break to have you look at this quote, really look at it. Forumite: If you had asked me yesterday, I'd have said that between the two, Forumite/Zentor, Forumite looked worse. However, since Zentor has started looking worse, Forumite has proportionally started looking better based on how early he was on Zentor's shit yesterday. I'm going to have to go back through and reread their interactions once I hear what Zentor has been up to and make a judgement based on that. Right now, I'd say he's looking okay. So first Forumite looked worse. However somehow Zentor and Forumite are on a see-saw, and forumite looks better the worse Zentor looks. This is ridiculous, and completely at odds with proper scum hunting, which VE knows full well. Additionally, here is VE's read from Day 1 on Forumite: On April 24 2012 02:06 VisceraEyes wrote: I think Forumite is town - but I think his MrZentor wagon is weak as shit, because I think Zentor is town too. :S Forumite is town, and in no way does VE insinuate that he finds Forumite scummy. Yet somehow on Day 2 Forumite has crawled his way up to only "looking okay", when VE clearly stated he saw Forumite as Town on Day 1. Conundrum and Contradiction. AND WE"RE BACK! I want to detail how I don't think VE really cared about our Day 1 lynch, but I'm having trouble setting it down in text, as I think it's kind of subtle. I'm not going to use quotes, so I highly recommend you go back and read the relevant section in VE's filter(or better yet, the full game text). Short form is this: VE never actually does any scum-hunting on Day 1, nor does he ever actually try to push a lynch. He bounces around, pushes a candidate here, throws some names out there, but never really commits. He begins by pushing an ace lynch, yet immediately after(as in next sentence) starts discussing lynching lurkers, particularly sbrubbles. His vote on Ace is so supremely weak that it doesn't merit a vote by a long shot. He then switches onto sbrubbles for no reason than the fact that he has few posts. Yet sbrubbles few posts were jam packed with content, and showed obvious thought and care for the game. VE keeps bouncing though, and it seems obvious to me that he was searching for an appropriate bandwagon. He makes plenty of weak suggestions - ace, myself, sbrubbles, marv - but refuses to run with any of them, and is constantly seeking approval of the other players. I will also add that both VE's conciliatory tone, and lower than normal activity level raise my suspicions, but those are not by themselves scummy things. I think there is a body of evidence though that shows VE is not playing his usual town game, and is consistently displaying mafia thought patterns. ##Vote: Visceraeyes | ||
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Radfield
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I'll admit that the voting section is slightly weaker than I like, but it is only part of a body of evidence. I think there are numerous tells in your posting that show a mafia mindset. | ||
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On April 26 2012 09:44 Forumite wrote: I disagree with your analsis in this case. A scummy player who narrowly avoid a lynch sounds like a prime target for a vigi-shot. We are at the same place we were yesterday before the lynch, a nightkill on MrZentor would have given us back this day. Radfield, what about the MrZentor lynch? I agree with that. Zentor getting vigged would be likely, but that is NOT what VE is referring to. He is specifically postulating that it's strange Zentor was not killed by mafia, even if he doesn't explicitly say it. I bet VE will even confirm that. On April 26 2012 09:43 Bluelightz wrote: Scum team is Forumite, phagga, and VisceraEyes. Bluelightz, If you are town than your play has improved over last game, but I highly recommend you stop trying to find the entire scum team in one swoop. Focus on one player at a time, and peg them. Once we find one scum, we will start looking for the next one. | ||
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Radfield
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I was thinking today about how Ace said to keep it simple. But I think that the simple answer is not: "player is blatantly disruptive, therefore he is scum". Fact is 98% of the time scum just try to blend in with town. So the actual simple answer is "player is blatantly disruptive, he's probably an uncaring townie". That's obvious a simplification, but you get the jist. Anyways if he flipped scum I'd be surprised but not shocked. I think VE is a better target by a long shot. | ||
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On April 26 2012 09:52 VisceraEyes wrote: I'm just playin Rad, it's a great case - its weakness is that it's based on my inactivity and your perception of my mindset while posting. I fully intend to actually respond to it in full sir, I was just joking.  I know I'm just being Mr Serious <3 | ||
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