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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On April 26 2012 08:02 layabout wrote: ottox if you don't switch onto MG i will kill you Is layabout referring to a) The fact that his vote should secure an ottoxlol lynch b) He has decided to claim vig which would allow mafia to block the one shot he would have by shooting him during the coming night less derp more lynching MG | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On April 26 2012 08:13 Ottoxlol wrote: Laya, why do you want to kill me if your read is that i am town? That was supposed to say: Could this player care about finding scum. When i came back today i looked at the votes i read the thread and thought "we don't have a chance of lynching scum" So i am going treat both you as zephird as if you are probably town. Lynching you still has a chance of killing scum and was suspicious of you yesterday, so if it comes to it i will add my vote to your list to lessen reduced scum ability to create a swing should one of you turn out to be mafia (which i do not believe is the case). | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On April 26 2012 09:03 MidnightGladius wrote: At least all of those votes moving around at the deadline should yield something interesting. Maybe we can find one of your buddies | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On April 26 2012 23:54 marvellosity wrote: Do you find it likely we have a vig when, for example, BM was not shot in Night 1? Well we know we don't have a vig reckless enough to make a sub-optimal shot night 1. Or that they did and BM is a gf or one of the two were jailed. or they shot somebody else who was a GF or one of them was jailed. It's as if all we actually know is that no shot went through. Guys can you please stop all of this blue discussion. Unless you have some sort of ingenious plan for the blues that is vastly superior to them making their own decisions which are relatively straightforward then cut it out. I was going to say that Risen is a better shot but after thinking about it i think that Ottoxlol is a better shot but we should actually shoot/lynch neither. My thoughts on the implications of yesterdays lynch: It is true that if ottoxlol flips red then risen's switch would have been so beneficial to mafia that he likely is too. Shooting risen we have a similar impact since the switch made him a target and he would have no good reason to put himself in the spotlight for being anti-town unless it was to save a teammate. If Risen flips mafia then it is highly likely that his switch was to save a team-mate, which would be ottoxlol. If Risen flips town then we can't really infer anything about ottoxlol's alignment since Risen didn't know it and would have vote switched for the reasons he gave. If ottoxlol flips mafia then it's clear that Risen's switch did save mafia and the most reasonable explanation for this would be that he too is mafia. If ottoxlol flips town then Risen would have switched a lynch that mafia had no real reason to change and we can infer that Risen is very likely town. If we assume that nothing outlandish is happening then the following flips will lead to this: Flip: Risen => Risen Ottoxlol Risen => Risen Ottoxlol Ottoxlol => Risen Ottoxlol Ottoxlol => Risen Ottoxlol This means that if we are trying to be objective, ottoxlol's flip is the mosts valuable.. I believe that ottoxlol is town and that we are likely dealing with two town therefore we should not flip either. | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
But if you do, killing Ottoxlol would be the better choice. On April 27 2012 00:35 marvellosity wrote: So layabout, we know you think MG - do you have any other likely candidates? I will answer this before the deadline, since the explanation i give would be helpful to a mafiateam wondering who to shoot | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On April 27 2012 01:05 Mattchew wrote: clarifying EBWOP: made it a tie that was still favoring zeph to be lynched If that is the case then risen's open panicking in the thread was for nothing. hmmmmm... Would i be correct that this is in fact this vote that switched the lynch from ottox to zephird? On April 26 2012 08:52 BroodKingEXE wrote: ##Vote: Zephirdd and this is the explanation for it? On April 26 2012 08:54 BroodKingEXE wrote: ##Vote: Zephird I'm voting for Zephird he's posted enough that he should be able to answer questions but hasn't. | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
But look! BK "ninja" voted too and we almost missed it. | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
I'll have my thoughts on Uon and Ottoxol in my next post. and delivers us this: On April 26 2012 04:45 BroodKingEXE wrote: Can someone point out to me why all this suspicion about Ottoxlol? I'm having trouble finding any big cases against him. His earlier posts look fine to me. On April 26 2012 08:54 BroodKingEXE wrote: ##Vote: Zephird I'm voting for Zephird he's posted enough that he should be able to answer questions but hasn't. | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On April 27 2012 01:28 marvellosity wrote: Yes, this is also something I had noticed. The way I read it at the time was in the 2nd post, he was following through on his 1st - he was looking at Ottoxlol, and he hadn't found anything major and so was asking. Not great since Ottoxlol has posted scummily in parts, but it does suggest he went to look like he said. What he didn't do is post his thoughts on Sentinel as promised. That's fact. If he was follwoing through and asking for us to tell him stuff, then surely he should also follow through and either produce stuff and tell that he judges zephirdd to be scum and ottoxlol to be __>not as good a lynch a zephird<__ . Then place his vote on zephirdd. He should also do this when there is enough time left for people to assess what he says and possibly respond to it. His vote would then clearly be on zephirdd. It is as if he was reluctant to put his vote on zephirdd and only put his vote on at the very end. Consider the scenario in which BroodkingExe, Risen and Ottoxlol are all scum. Can you think of a more reasonable one? | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On April 27 2012 01:50 marvellosity wrote: I think I'm not quite grasping your point of view. The way I saw things unfold were 1) Broodking outlined why he found Zephirdd scummy, said he'd look at ottoxlol/sentinel 2) Looked at Ottoxlol, didn't find anything, asked town about him 3) He didn't find anything convincing on Ottoxlol, so placed his vote on his stronger read from earlier (Zephirdd) Somewhere in this timeline is the failure to examine Sentinel as promised. It almost seems what you're saying is that he should have produced an anti-case on Ottoxlol? which I don't quite get. Primarily the dodgy thing is his total failure to look at Sentinel, no? Finally, to your trio - yes, it's entirely plausible. But it could just be connections that panned out that way. For example, you seem to think Risen and Ottoxlol are probably town. Why on earth would he wait until 8 minutes before the deadline when he claimed to have looked at ottoxlol hours before then. for me the lynch time (on TL) is 9:00 05:00 4 hours til lynch Ottoxlol has 6 votes zephirdd has 2 votes MidnightGaldius, St. Daniel and Marvellosity vote for zephird 07:00 2 hours before deadline votes are: zephird 5 votes ottoxlol 6 votes 5-6 Ottoz to be lynched + Show Spoiler + St.Daniel --> Zephirdd Janaan --> Zephirdd marvellosity --> Zephirdd johnnywup --> Zephirdd MidnightGladius --> Zephirdd + Show Spoiler + Mementoss --> Ottoxlol Ghost_403 --> Ottoxlol Risen --> Ottoxlol Bill Murray --> Ottoxlol [UoN]Sentinel --> Ottoxlol Zephirrd --> Ottoxlol 07:17 paqman votes zephird 6-6 Ottoxlol to be lynched 07:26 Ottoxlol votes zephird 7-6 zephirdd to be lynched 08:26 Mattchew votes for Ottoxlol 7-7 zephird to be lynched 08:36 Layabout votes for Ottoxlol 7-8 Ottoxlol to be lynched 08:52: BroodkingExe votes for zephird 8-8 Ottoxlol to be lynched 08:57 Risen changes to zephirdd 9-7 zephirdd to be lynched 08:59 Risen changes back to Ottoxlol 8-8 zephird to be lynched 09:00 zephird lynched. Lookes to me like scum were happy to see zephird get lynch but after Matchew and i voted for ottoxlol they decided to switch the lynch back onto town. Then Risen does a weird switch back to make himself look clueless in the hope that he will be excused on "meta grounds" and to allow his team mates to bus him for towncred. OR we have a townie that waited until the last possible moment to place his vote on the player that he thought was scum. AND a townie that decided to wait until there was no time left for a townie to change their vote to change the person being lynched for a reason that is ludicrous, AND these players made the decisions to act this way independently of each other, AND this caused a town player to be lynched. | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
It looks like my townread on Ottoxlol is incorrect, because it would require me to make too many assumptions to maintain it. To elaborate: Namely Broodking and Risen coordinated voteswitches at the last minute to change the lynch. The idea that both of them are town is very difficult for me to accept. If they are not town then both of them being scum seems to make the most sense and it would also lead me to think that Ottoxlol is also scum. | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On April 27 2012 02:37 marvellosity wrote: Ok, I see what you're getting at. I can still understand Broodking voting the way he did if he was town - express scummy thoughts on Zeph, voice townie concerns on ottoxlol, finally sees nothing for why he should vote ottoxlol and votes for Zephirdd. BUT - your narrative also makes sense. Whichever way you swing it, leaving it THAT LATE to vote is... well, it's a bit ugh. And it could very well appear that Broodking and Risen colluded to get Ottoxlol lynched, with Risen playing the weird switch-back card. It all boils down to this though - your narrative only makes sense if you believe Ottoxlol to be scum. If you don't, then it falls apart. You've expressed more than once that you feel Ottoxlol to be probably town. Is the sequence of voting at the end enough to now convince you that he's scum? Is that actually enough? If risen is scum then the switch to a townie makes no sense. If a townie would have been lynched anyway why would he put himself into the spotlight like that? Especially when you consider that he auto-assumed he would be lynched for it. | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On April 27 2012 02:43 marvellosity wrote: Ok, question for you: If Broodking/Risen are scum, why would Broodking not place his vote on Zephirdd considerably earlier (thus getting Zephirdd to 8 votes first) rather than perform this ridiculous act at the end of voting? Why would somebody on the mafia team be reluctant to place his vote on the wagon of a townie? Remember at 4:45 when Broodking posted about Ottox, zephird only had 2 votes (Jaanan and Johnnywub). zephird gathered some votes. + Show Spoiler [aside] + MG was one of these votes and since i think he is scum it makes sense to me that scum might not want to vote at the same time to oppose a wagon on one of their team mates. I will wager that by this point at least 1 member of their team on the zephird wagon. In this sense it makes sense for them to hold off on voting for him immediately because they would ideally like to keep the number of them on the townie wagon as low as possible since those players get more heavily scrutinised. by 07:17 it was tied 6-6 and Ottoxlol still had his vote. So from this point onwards they could get zephird lynched and Ottoxlol can do it by legitimately saying that he is trying to save himself. So there was no need for anymore of them to be on the wagon. When 2 more votes came in fairly late for ottox they needed to act and so they did.+ Show Spoiler [aside] + Risen ending up on Ottoxlol would also show just how much they did not want to be on the votes for a mislynch | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On April 27 2012 02:57 layabout wrote: Why would somebody on the mafia team be reluctant to place his vote on the wagon of a townie? Remember at 4:45 when Broodking posted about Ottox, zephird only had 2 votes (Jaanan and Johnnywub). zephirdd gathered some votes. + Show Spoiler [aside] + MG was one of these votes and since i think he is scum it makes sense to me that scum might not want to vote at the same time to oppose a wagon on one of their team mates. I will wager that by this point at least 1 member of their team on the zephirdd wagon. In this sense it makes sense for them to hold off on voting for him immediately because they would ideally like to keep the number of them on the townie wagon as low as possible since those players get more heavily scrutinised. by 07:17 it was tied 6-6 and Ottoxlol still had his vote. So from this point onwards they could get zephird lynched and Ottoxlol can do it by legitimately saying that he is trying to save himself. So there was no need for anymore of them to be on the wagon. When 2 more votes came in fairly late for ottox they needed to act and so they did.+ Show Spoiler [aside] + Risen ending up on Ottoxlol would also show just how much they did not want to be on the votes for a mislynch I would like to add that between ottoxlol BroodkingExe and Risen they had the capacity to create a 4 vote swing. So the entire time they would be confident that they could save their team mate ottoxlol and feel less need to move onto zephridd unless they were made to. + Show Spoiler [crazytalk] + If their other member was not on zephirdd they could create a 5 vote swing and if they were on Ottolox a 6 vote swing. | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On April 27 2012 04:10 johnnywup wrote: ghost, ive addressed that. i had the same thoughts as you initially but ithought it through and it was barely tied. i dont think scum could have arranged something like that. It's a townie mistake and it's likely he didn't think that the tie would keep the lynch on zeph after he switched back. You don't think that scum would deliberately change the lynch target at the last second? Or you don't think that they would try to pass it off as a mistake? scum have done in the past, most notably + Show Spoiler [here] + In my first game of mafia TL Mafia XLVII The scumteam commit a huge voteswitch at the end of the day to kill Palmer and BC. A voting update was posted during the switch and as a consequence of that bumatlarge who had been part of the switch accused hum teammates of claiming scum in the thread. Some of them then did claim scum in the thread. | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
JK's stay the hell away from ottox, if you want to block a goon go for BK (or maybe MG) instead. Vig's shoot the crap out of ottox. When he flips red we will be in a great position. On the outside chance that he flips green then we will know we are on the wrong track. Trackers on Risen or BK or MG. | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On April 27 2012 05:21 Ottoxlol wrote: If you think i am 100% scum then BK is town. the votes were 7 6 for Zeph at 07:26, plenty of time till the deadline with you and Matt saying you will vote for me. If he would have been scum he could easily voted before you guys (08:36) making the Risen switch unnecessary strictly speaking this is incorrect Mattchew had voted for BM and his vote would not have changed who ended up being lynched and it's possible that the mafia may not have anticipated that he would change his vote. As soon as i got back to the thread i began to push MG and my vote was on him. Ottoxlol also seemed to think that i would vote for zephirdd over him, because he said that he thought that i thought he was town. + Show Spoiler + try saying that 3 times quickly I didn't say i would change my vote until 8:02. Only at that point would mafia know they needed to act. From this point onwards mafia would be able to decide on what to do. If they were discussing it is unlikely that they would make their decision immediately. Ottoxlol did try to get me to change my vote. If Broodkingexe had voted at this time in he would have to deal with attention, questions and responsibilty for the flip. There was still time for him to slip up or for townies to change their votes. It's also short sighted to expect anyone (including mafia) to play optimally and if you are reading the game at all i think you will agree with that, but there are limits as to what kind of play is plausible and what kind of play is intentionally anti-town. A townie that makes a case against a player he really believes is scum would have to be out of their right mind to not post for hours and then pop back in with a line and a vote 8 minutes before the deadline and that this caused a mislynch. That play while not optimal for scum would still make lots of sense. | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On April 27 2012 07:36 marvellosity wrote: It bugs me, why do people like BM sign up if they don't intend to actually play? To make the game harder/less enjoyable, isn't it obvious? Anyway, hold off on complaining about other people's general play styles until post game. | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On April 27 2012 07:42 johnnywup wrote: i dont think anyone persons flip confirms any other person as scum or town, it may increase odds but i don't think that that should be a basis for getting reads on people -.- Generally this is correct. However, Please tell me if you think i am making a mistake in this post click, because the way i see it we can draw those conclusions and we would only be incorrect to do so if multiples absurdities had coincided and all of them are acting to the detriment of our glorious town. | ||
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