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TL Mafia 'Area' LIII - Page 101

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Mattchew
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States5684 Posts
May 01 2012 14:28 GMT
#2001
Post 2000, and BM is still basically all like

[image loading]
There is always tomorrow nshs.seal.
Mattchew
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States5684 Posts
May 01 2012 14:30 GMT
#2002
On May 01 2012 23:28 johnnywup wrote:
Why does option 1 have to have BM not being Goon? He could still be goon with a bus

because the scum team would basically be forfeiting. We are lynching BM after Risen if Ottox flips scum. No scum team would bus and have their goon be able to be roleblocked
There is always tomorrow nshs.seal.
ghost_403
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1825 Posts
May 01 2012 14:45 GMT
#2003
Okay, so let's see what terrible things people have been saying about me.

For reference, the case by johnnywup and the case by BroodKingEXE.

Johnny's case against me boils down to four points.
  1. Soft defending BM and attacking VE
  2. Kinda-sorta-almost-not really flipflopping on Risen
  3. Bad case on Sentinel
  4. Claiming I'm bussing Ottoxlol

All of these points are easily addressed.
  1. I have a history of defending insane players. (For reference, Aperture mafia and TL LI, soon to be added to my profile. Gotta use that thing for something.) Insane players are statistically not scum, and I see people who push for lynching insane players as scummy. They make the perfect target for the scum to push a mislynch. The perfect example of this is Zealos in TL LI. On Day 2, I asked him who he wanted to lynch. His reply was Kenpachi because he's nuts. That's not scum hunting, and a huge tell that he's not actually looking for scum. (Zealos ended up flipping scum.) However, I almost always advocate vig'ing these players. They are not helping the town, and area huge liability later on in the game, and very dangerous if they are in fact scum. See Bill Murray this game.

    As far as attacking VE, I stand by it. VE played exceptionally poorly this game, and deserved to be lynched for what he did. It's regrettable that he flipped blue, but I stand by my decision. If you are playing scummy, I am going to vote to lynch you.

  2. Here is the post that JW referenced. Here is why I started considering a Risen lynch. What was going on was Risen was claiming that he was against a Marv lynch, while he actually said (in this thread) that he was going to vote for him. His defense was that he didn't actually vote in the voting thread, and somehow this abdicates his responsibility in this situation. In my book, this ranks as scummy-as-hell, and that's why I was considering a Risen lynch. I had forgotten about that incident, thanks for bringing it up. We should lynch Risen tomorrow, after Ottoxlol flips red.

  3. On Day 1, I wrote a subpar case on a lurking player who had been acting scummy. I regret nothing. Sentinel's play has improved since then, perhaps because I called him out. If Sentinel had continued to do the same thing, that subpar case would have been an excellent starting point for pursuing a lynch.

  4. Your theory is that I've been bussing my scummate for a week now, non stop, to gain towncred? Well, stranger things have happened. Assuming we both were scum, I think that doing that would be suboptimal at best, but there's really no way to prove that until after we both flip. However, I would like to point out that I have been probably the loudest voice for lynching Ottoxlol for the last week, and I think quite a few people would agree that my case against him is what finally pushed the town over the edge. If I was scum, that sounds like a foolish thing to do.

  5. Numbah 5, because I love you guys so much <3

    My "marv, flip town" post was a direct response to the fact that blzinghand promised to eat his hat should Marv flip town. I have yet to see blzinghand eat his hat. If I were iGrok, I would revive him, then modkill him again for failing to eat his hat.




For BK's post,
  1. ?????
  2. ?????
  3. ?????
  4. ?????


I don't know what's going on in this post.
  1. Sentinel got called out for lurking by layabout, and immediately piped up in thread. According to Ver in his Mafia XXX analysis, this is a not terrible scum tell. It tells you that the person is paying attention to the thread, but not contributing, which is scummy. I regret nothing.

    As far as VE is scummy we should/shouldn't lynch him: VE was playing scummy, but has enough experience to play a good game as scum. It'd not an easy situation to read. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that what ultimately pushed me over the edge was his roleclaim. He was playing moderately scummy before (strange from a vet), then did something really scummy (strange for anyone), and that's why I voted to lynch him.

  2. I really don't know what BK was trying to say in response to my next quote. As I said before, immediately delurking the way Sentinel did is a decent scum tell. It's not a bad reason to pursue a lynch Day 1.

  3. I have a habit of not writing long posts against people, and because of that, no one listens to my lynch suggestions. See TLM LI. I've decided to change that, and it's working a lot better. I don't see this as a contradiction at all.

  4. I've beaten to death why I thought Sentinel was scummy Day 1. Most of your problems with this relate to confirmation bias. Remember, if I am townie, I had no idea Sentinel was blue/green before today.

  5. Being gone and busy is not the same as lurking. People who are lurking are avoiding posting in the thread. People who are busy can't post in the thread. I think the fact that I was the latter of those is apparent in the fact that after I made those posts, I was gone for pretty decent chunks of time for the first couple of days in this game.


BK's case against me is a lot of incoherent ramblings (sorry, BK), so I find it difficult to respond to it. If he or anyone else feels I answered it inadequately, feel free to speak up.
They say great science is built on the shoulders of giants. Not here. At Aperture, we do all our science from scratch, no hand holding. Step aside, REAL SCIENCE coming through.
ghost_403
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1825 Posts
May 01 2012 14:46 GMT
#2004
Ugh, that thing is hueg and ugly.
They say great science is built on the shoulders of giants. Not here. At Aperture, we do all our science from scratch, no hand holding. Step aside, REAL SCIENCE coming through.
Janaan
Profile Joined June 2011
United States381 Posts
May 01 2012 15:50 GMT
#2005
At this point, I still think we probably need to deal with Ottox. We do know that he isn't the goon, but we don't have conclusive evidence of who IS the goon either. I'll be voting for Ottox today.
BroodKingEXE
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United States829 Posts
May 01 2012 16:40 GMT
#2006
It's WIFOM to debate whether scum would use a goon to bus. I say let the bus go through, to prevent scum from bringing up another townie canidate.
Playing Protoss = Opponent owned
BroodKingEXE
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United States829 Posts
May 01 2012 16:47 GMT
#2007
@Ghost so you'll defend BM for being insane, but not VE?
Playing Protoss = Opponent owned
ghost_403
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1825 Posts
May 01 2012 17:25 GMT
#2008
@BK: In my spreadsheet, I have a column marked "age", where I indicate the relative experience of each player. I had VE marked down as veteran, but after the last three games I've played with him, I think I'm going to move him into the insane category. So, this time I did not, but next time I probably will. That guy is nuts.
They say great science is built on the shoulders of giants. Not here. At Aperture, we do all our science from scratch, no hand holding. Step aside, REAL SCIENCE coming through.
[UoN]Sentinel
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
United States11320 Posts
May 01 2012 20:08 GMT
#2009
Ghost is being pretty logical right now. I think I can actually trust him.

What's that spreadsheet you're talking about? May I see it?
Нас зовет дух отцов, память старых бойцов, дух Москвы и твердыня Полтавы
Mattchew
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States5684 Posts
May 01 2012 20:17 GMT
#2010
sent/ghost/paq I would like to hear your reads on people
There is always tomorrow nshs.seal.
Mattchew
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States5684 Posts
May 01 2012 20:18 GMT
#2011
*up to the minute reads... preferably not correlation dependent
There is always tomorrow nshs.seal.
[UoN]Sentinel
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
United States11320 Posts
May 01 2012 20:20 GMT
#2012
EBWOP: I was going to have this in the last post. Brood, what is this?

Three things to sum up what you said in the post: Sent pointed out a mistake in MG’s post, he made a townlist, and "I'm going to give myself an excuse not to post so I can avoid scumslipping.". Three things to counter what you said in this post: He did this so as to prevent misunderstandings about him bandwagoning, not everyone thinks townlists are bad, and you made an excuse post yourself:
+ Show Spoiler +
On April 22 2012 06:57 ghost_403 wrote:
All right, /confrim.

Sorry I've been gone for the last day. The time I can spend in the thread is going to be limited for the next couple of days. After the 25th, I should be back to full steam.

Now to find some scum. Only got 12 pages to go through. Shouldn't be too hard.




[/quote]

Also, Brood's case gives me too much credit. I don't even know why we're talking about what I was doing Day 1. In all fairness, though, ghost said some stupid stuff, but so did gonzaw. Remember him? The townie guy who wrote that big-ass case on me and I couldn't defend myself against him? That guy.
Нас зовет дух отцов, память старых бойцов, дух Москвы и твердыня Полтавы
[UoN]Sentinel
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
United States11320 Posts
May 01 2012 21:00 GMT
#2013
Here is currently how I see this game:

[image loading] <- even list || adjusted to relative positions -> [image loading]

Notes about the chart:

So basically I ordered this chart on this: If I was a vig with an infinite number of bullets, I'd start at #9 and shoot my way up until I found my 3 scum.

Otto we're all lynching and I think he's got the closest to 100% chance of being scum. Bill's next on the list as potential and pretty fucking scummy, but he's not quite as confirmed as Otto is. He's still a pretty close second.

Next is 6 and 7. I had a bit of trouble determining this layout. There's only three scums left, and I have a feeling it's BM, Ottoxlol, and one of these two. I would say that I'd have to put Risen as #7, although this is mostly because of the clusterfuck that got Zephirdd lynched. He's rising, and for all intents and purposes we can consider them tied for sixth.

Then comes the line of purgatory and the people who I think are townies. This list is semi-arbitrary and I'm 99.5% sure all five of these guys are towns. However, we all make mistakes, and if by some happenstance two of the 6-9 players have been playing horribad town, which does happen, I've done it to some extent, then this is my order of suspicion.

Paqman I couldn't find anything in his filter and I don't remember anyone making a good case against, this is why I give him #1. Closely following are the other four in the order of amount of fire each one has taken over the course of the game.

Questions / possible rearrangements? Speak up now while I have the file open and we can save some time.
Нас зовет дух отцов, память старых бойцов, дух Москвы и твердыня Полтавы
Mattchew
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States5684 Posts
May 01 2012 21:15 GMT
#2014
I think Janaan should be 5 and be in the lighter green zone. I don't like his posting at all. Otherwise I would put risen above BM if/when ottox flips scum
There is always tomorrow nshs.seal.
Ottoxlol
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
735 Posts
May 01 2012 21:46 GMT
#2015
Nice chart, thank you for your thoughts Sent.
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
May 01 2012 22:13 GMT
#2016
On May 01 2012 23:28 Mattchew wrote:
Post 2000, and BM is still basically all like

[image loading]

That's not true WHATSOEVER, and it a blatant misrepresentation of what is going on.
If you weren't trolling so much this game, and obv town, I would lynch you over policy for tunneling.
Ask me about anything that has happened this game, Matt
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
May 01 2012 22:18 GMT
#2017
On May 01 2012 17:56 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
I have no problem with the ghost case, I'm just having a hard time wrapping my head around the idea he's scum.

Otherwise, I can take care of BM tonight. We'll know if he's a goon or not by tomorrow and then we can go from there.

There is no point in you jailing at all. You're going to die tonight.
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
ghost_403
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1825 Posts
May 01 2012 22:18 GMT
#2018
@sent: I would post a link to my sheet, but (1) I'm not sure that's okay with the rules, (2) I have been woefully negligent with it and (3) it's been wrong a lot

My top two town reads are Sentinel and Mattchew. After I FoS'd him Day 1, he really turned his game around. Now, with his claim and lack of counterclaim, I view him as confirmed town. Mattchew's next, since he's been more or less behind me for quite some time now. The thing I find most scummy about him is he's not dead yet. ghost stops to ponder...

Paqman reads null for me at the moment. I have been behind on keeping up on the game for a couple of days now, so I don't have an intelligent opinion on him. Skimming through his filter, I don't see anything too scummy, but tomorrow I'll post some deeper thoughts. Janaan is also null for me, but I always misread Janaan.

BroodKing has struck me as slightly not town, but in a noobie sort of way, so I'll give him a pass. Bill Murray is insane, but I don't like how he doesn't interact with the town even when called out. But, like I've said a couple of times, BM is nuts, so I would hesitate to push a lynch on him.

Risen has done the most scummy things in this game by a wide margin. Just a few of the things I don't like about him include his "say I'll vote someone then don't and pretend like I didn't" and screwing up the Ottoxlol lynch on Day 2. After that, he pretty much dropped out of the game. I don't like his play, and wouldn't hesitate to lynch him.

Johnnywup has not done the most scummy things in this game. That's because he's not done a lot. One incident that sticks out to me in particular is how much he's flipflopped on the Ottoxlol lynch. He's okay with it, he's against it, nevermind let's do it. Take a look at the last couple of pages of his filter. He's all over the place. I don't know if that's par for the course for him, or this is his way of playing scum. After Ottoxlol's flip, I'm going to take a hard look at him and start figuring out exactly which role he rolled.

And Ottoxlol is scum.
They say great science is built on the shoulders of giants. Not here. At Aperture, we do all our science from scratch, no hand holding. Step aside, REAL SCIENCE coming through.
BroodKingEXE
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United States829 Posts
May 01 2012 22:21 GMT
#2019
On May 02 2012 02:25 ghost_403 wrote:
@BK: In my spreadsheet, I have a column marked "age", where I indicate the relative experience of each player. I had VE marked down as veteran, but after the last three games I've played with him, I think I'm going to move him into the insane category. So, this time I did not, but next time I probably will. That guy is nuts.

I find it hard to believe that his increased insanity made you want to lynch him more. You said yourself that you don't view insane people as scummy.

@UoN I'm not crediting you at all, I just think that he tunneled you hard. You were lurking in the beggining, but is lurking something that we should lynch for? NO! We should lynch for scummy posting. I fine with people looking at lurkers to find scummy posts (lurking isn't a townie action, so I look at them first). Did his case point out scummy posting? I don't see anywhere where he points that out. I feel Ghost is a scum that saw an easy target (a lurker that posted like one) and pointed him out. The problem is that he never went beyond that, even to the point of putting his vote on you. In other words, he never proved you were scum out of any of the other lurkers at the time.
Playing Protoss = Opponent owned
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
May 01 2012 22:23 GMT
#2020
I'm going to kill Risen tonight, btw
I'm vig
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
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