May we vote for ourselves? It says in the OP that we can but in Newbie Mini Mafia VI it also said this until someone asked, at which point Radfield silently edited it and claimed that it was never allowed in the first place... Better safe than sorry
I think there are certain corner cases where you...... I honestly have no idea. But the last game I played made a thing about it and the OP got edited, so I'm asking anyway because why the hell not. And it "confirms" with GreYMisT that I've read his post =D
Sure, why not? But please let actual solid reads/cases take precedence over it. That said, I don't think real solid cases come up on Day 1, so I think for our first lynch we should employ this strategy.
So the thing I am still having problems is, how do we find a viable opening strategy that gets Day 1 discussion going but doesn't necessarily create huge chaos in the thread? In Aperture Mafia (the first game I watched), there was a dayvig shot 19 minutes into the game, it got claimed, and discussion started from there. The guy who shot and claimed ultimately got lynched. In Newbie Mini Mafia VI (the first game I played), Kohbee essentially put out a random vote on HiroPro to get discussion going, but it kinda backfired and Kohbee was almost lynched Day 1/lynched for good Day 2, wasting 2 days of town activity. (Spoiler: Kohbee was Cop in that game).
So what's the plan here? Has anyone got anything specific in mind?
EBWOP: Notice how both the openings I explained ended up in the guy doing it (a townie) getting lynched. When start discussion with something like this, we're gonna have to do it right.
BroodKingEXE: How did your Day 1 start? Was it an accusation that got the discussion flowing or was it just random strategy talk like we're doing here?
On April 12 2012 08:58 Dittert wrote: What if we all agree to a rng lynch... at least proposing someone to lynch via rng. Then we have something to take a stance on.
Ah, finally a statement I can disagree on! You see, agreeing to lynch someone Day 1 on a random basis only leads to discussion on Day 2 and does not spark any Day 1 discussion at all... that is, if you really random-lynch someone. If you propose it, you can tell all sorts of things by the players' reactions to your proposal, which makes the proposal itself a good idea, at least.
@willz22912: I noticed that. My point was that the claim by Drazerk was definitely made to spark discussion within the town, and that it lead to a whole bunch of chaos in the thread and eventually Drazerk's downfall, helped by the fact that he just made shit up as he went along.
@Dittert: The whole RNG thing makes tons of problems. First, how do you decide who determines the random number? We can't just decide to randomize some number "as a group". And how do you keep the guy randomizing from just pulling a random number out of his ass? How do you know the guy coming up with the number isn't scum and treats this as the perfect opportunity to off the player of his liking?
@vonKlaust: I claimed that I was pressure voting simply because I saw what happened to Kohbee in VI: He didn't properly claim it, people got confused and the chaos happened because they mistook him for scum. As to whether it's a bit early for pressure voting: I can take the vote off HiroPro pretty easily later on, but the exact timing when I exert/take off the pressure doesn't matter as much (I think, please correct me about this if I'm wrong).
I know. I just didn't want to quote three posts because then the whole thing becomes an unreadable mess, and you ninja'd me right as I was posting it >_>
On April 12 2012 09:19 vonKlaust wrote: I'm not sure I support pressure voting this early. Especially when you're so open about the fact that you're pressure voting. The game has been going for like an hour, and it's pretty natural that some people haven't posted yet. Also, stating that openly that you're voting for pressure kinda nullifies the effect, doesn't it?
It's pretty funny that you actually just mentioned that this tactic ended up back fireing in your last game(it's even the same guy!)
In Newbie Mini Mafia VI (the first game I played), Kohbee essentially put out a random vote on HiroPro to get discussion going, but it kinda backfired and Kohbee was almost lynched Day 1/lynched for good Day 2, wasting 2 days of town activity. (Spoiler: Kohbee was Cop in that game).
He should be open about pressure voting! If he is going to pressure vote shouldn't we know as a town? That way we know that KB is thinks Hiro is not scum and that he isn't throwing his vote around randomly (like a scum).
To be honest, I just read "A General Guide to Mafia" and on the subject of pressure voting it says:
"Never reveal that you are pressure voting, as this destroys its effectiveness. Refrain from saying that you are “pressure voting” or “policy voting”
So what I was thinking was that it would be better to wait for a while, since it's pretty natural for people not to have posted yet, and putting out a vote later when the person you're pressuring have actually made posts which you can use in your pressure-attempt. I can't imagine that you would feel very pressured by the kind of pressure vote KharadBanar made. Thinking about it, what you say makes sense though. I guess throwing votes around seemingly lighly is a pretty good way to get lynched yourself.
Damn, I'm doing it wrong ;_; Okay, another strategy question to discuss then: Should I leave the vote on him in that case? i.e. Is pressure voting "the wrong way" actually any more useful than not doing it at all? I still have the feeling the vote is going to accomplish something, but I'd like to hear your thoughts first because I'm not sure at all about it.
EBWOP I'm by no means saying I just confirmed Hiro as town. This just means I got the result I wanted out of my vote, and I didn't really expect more out of it. It was still a slightly useful action in terms of exciting discussion, getting Hiro to post something, and last but not least the act of learning (Pressure Votes 101: How generally not to do it, for dummies).
Hi guys. I think I have figured out why people say they hate D1. I have just read through about 4 pages of posts with a LOT of nonsense filler that nobody can use for anything (not even lighting a fire to cook Greymist and stop the hunger).
Luckily it wasn't a total loss, because I did get two things from it. The first is that Dittert made a really bad proposal and got it shot down. That makes Dittert either scum, or noobie. Seeing as we're all noobs, that doesn't mean much, but I have my eye on him now and want him to post something useful.
The other thing I got is more serious. KharadBanar has been a paragon of recycling useless stuff. He does not take a firm stance on anything much at all (except maybe lurker lynches, which everybody and their blind grandma will say yes to). Whereas other people pointed out that Dittert's policy was just plain bad, KharadBanar decided that it was more important to show that it was technically difficult to accomplish: why bother?
However, my biggest problem with KharadBanar was his "pressure" vote. It has been pointed out why his pressure vote was bad, but what was even worse was that, after he admitted that and Hiro posted anyway, he just laid off and unvoted. If Hiro had posted anything useful I would agree with that, but here is Hiro's response to the "pressure":
On April 12 2012 09:57 HiroPro wrote: I'm not an idiot Kharad.
Also, lol @ anyone who thinks Kharad's vote is random. He picked me because he wants to compare the response from last game to this game.
And this entire conversation about how and when to pressure vote is pointless, considering it's already been done in this game.
A completely fair response in my book, because there was no pressure to start with, but if Kharad actually wanted to pressure Hiro, NOW is the chance to lay it on and get a real response. You've made a ballsup, Hiro responded knowing you fubar'd it up. Now ask him some pointed questions and get a response from Hiro when he's actually under pressure. Instead, what does Kharad do?
On April 12 2012 10:01 KharadBanar wrote: ...and this is actually a useful answer. Thank you Hiro. I'm not saying this is how it's done but I got the result I wanted in some way.
##unvote
btw, I don't think it's that obvious to everyone that I picked you just for that.
What? How was his answer in any way, shape, or form useful? All he said was "lololol wtf vote".
So yeah, Kharad. Step it up. People say your play in Newbie VI was good. I want to see some of that play instead of all this nonsense.
@Xatalos: of course I was quiet, I was asleep.
This is actually a really fair accusation to make, and as far as the Dittert thing with the random votes goes I don't really have an excuse. Furthermore, I have actually no freaking idea as to how to begin in a Mafia game. Look at VI and you'll see the first productive comments I made were well after people had taken stances and made their cases; I work way better with more material out there to go off of. As for the pressure vote, consider that Hiro responded to me at 2:57 AM of my local time and I was really really tired. I was actually rather happy to have him answer as it meant I could go to bed without worrying how the discussion would develop if Hiro showed up while I was sleeping and I couldn't take my vote off, which is why I took off the pressure so easily. Maybe I shouldn't have said the answer was "useful", but it's still an answer of him showing he's actually there, that he's been reading the thread, and tells us about his mindset on pressure votes. If that had come during the day I would certainly have inquired more than that.
So now enough with the defense, and onto some actual play. I actually have a (slight) suspicion of Xatalos, believe it or not. I have nothing to say against his case on ArcticFox, but I don't see "70-80% Mafia" in there just because Xatalos played the same way as mafia. Please remember that it is entirely possible to make this play as town if you're new. This is by no means defending ArcticFox but if I had to evaluate his chances of being Mafia right now, I would put them lower, at like 40-50% which is still quite suspicious. But the thing I really don't like in there is this quote:
On April 12 2012 18:18 Xatalos wrote: I say ArcticFox and Dittert are our best Mafia reads at the moment. Anyone else want to vote? One vote isn't yet enough to force Mafia slips, but 2-3 might well be. And I want to see everyone's opinions and reactions about my case on ArcticFox (also Dittert, although my case on him is mostly just the public apology without any reason).
Please remember that 2-3 votes is more than enough to cause scumslips even in town players, especially new ones. This is something I learned from VI, where Kohbee got into a fight with the entire town and looked scummy for defending himself when in actuality he was the cop desperately trying to wind himself out of the mess he's gotten into. I am not against pressuring ArcticFox at this point because we need more posts from him, but I won't use my vote for it because I think 3 votes is enough pressure to make anyone's defense look scummy, be it actual scum or just town.
Players I would like to hear more from include: trumpetarn (you're finally awake, now let's get cooking), yomi (two posts some aren't gonna cut it in the long run), Dittert (not heard of you in a long while) and vonKlaust (after your initial contribution you have been absent for quite a long time). What do you all think about the case Acrofales made on me?
I still think Day 1 pressure is pretty worthless in most games. I looked at Newbie VI (Kohbee and Therapist.) and TL Mafia LI (Janaan, sputnik.theory and Tunkeg), and I noticed the utter failure to catch scum on the first Day by pressure. I realize that this is a small data sample to go by, but I don't think strong pressure is the right tool to find scum in a newbie game.
And yes, my case against you was weak and I had no doubt about that. Your argumentation against ArcticFox is sound, I just don't think that makes him as scummy as you depicted it.
On April 12 2012 21:07 trumpetarn wrote: About Xatalos I feel some suspicion since he shows up so very eager point people out and so but still it what this game is about so its not much to go on just had some hinch when I read his post...
I think that aggression and being open about one's suspicions is not really big of a scum tell. In fact, you can help town immensely by doing so while nobody else has any reads. Later in Day 1 town needs to focus on their stronger reads however, and get people to consolidate their suspicions. This is not as important in a newbie game with plurality lynch, but in a "real" game where you need a majority to vote this is the only way for town to get anything done. I would therefore like to propose a procedure like this for our game too, because this is very much a learning experience and I want to prepare for the serious games to come.
What I think about the current town situation (people who made recent large-ish posts):
Xatalos: You posted a lot of accusations so far, but a lot of the cases seem not very thought out. You want reads from other people, but you have to realize that too many slight reads actually distract focus from town; we should agree on the ones that seem most substantial and try to lynch into those.
imallinson: Your recent defense seems OK-ish, your case on trumpetarn actually somewhat thought out. We could definitely look into that more.
Acrofales: Calling out yomi seems like a right thing to do right now, because he really has some things to explain right now. You may actually really be on to something with this read.
And: Dittert: What the hell? First you bring up the discussion about random lynches, then you disappear for a while, and then you get really aggressive about willz? How is that supposed to help us find scum, especially since willz is not the most solid scum read we have right now.
Since I begun writing this post, there is also vonKlaust who has a rather large post: You make a valid argument there, but I still think there are more viable lynch targets out there (yomi, Dittert; also trumpetarn and HiroPro if they're not willing to post more).
Hey, after being away for a little while the thread is actually shaping up to be a little bit more productive, with people posting their reads and being generally quite sane around here. One thing I'm missing though is a bit more interaction with Yomi, because he got a case posted on him which I can definitely agree with, but has since not been around in the thread. If he's lurking out there, perhaps there's something we can do about that.
##Vote: Yomi
I would do a similar thing for HiroPro too, but I have only one vote and Yomi takes precedence to me because nobody got around to a case on Hiro yet.
Okay, I just got up and caught up with the thread, and that huge post by Acrofales did change my priorities here somewhat:
Before, my biggest scum reads went something like this: Dittert, yomi, HiroPro, maybe BroodKing (?) I had my vote on yomi to get him to contribute something useful, which isn't going to happen until shortly before the deadline so it's useless on him for that purpose and better off on one of my bigger scum reads.
Now Acrofales has posted his suspicion on willz, I see some extremely good points in that post and did as he said (read through willz's filter (1) "knowing" he was mafia and (2) "knowing" he was town) and the mafia explanation really does make a lot more sense.
Now my scum reads go as follows: willz, probably Dittert, and likely one of yomi and HiroPro the lurkers. With this in mind, and the fact that willz really needs to explain himself, I will change my vote to him for he is my biggest scum read right now.
Yes I think he could be scum. It's just that with how few posts he has made thus far there is not really as much evidence as with willz's lengthy filter that currently exists and has been thoroughly analysed. I'm keeping an eye out for yomi though.
OK this case by willz doesn't seem very though out. Let's see what I see wrong with it (My annotations in italics):
On April 14 2012 01:47 willz22912 wrote: My case against BroodKingEXE:
I advise everyone to in addition to this case where I point out his most glaring scumminess, take a look at his filter as a whole and see how much contribution he's really done. If you are accusing me of contributing without contributing, then what has he been doing?
1. Initially is suspicious of Dittert here, one of the top targets considering his RNG proposal and how hard it was shut down by myself and ArcticFox:
@Dittert: The whole RNG thing makes tons of problems. First, how do you decide who determines the random number? We can't just decide to randomize some number "as a group". And how do you keep the guy randomizing from just pulling a random number out of his ass? How do you know the guy coming up with the number isn't scum and treats this as the perfect opportunity to off the player of his liking?
All very good points that I did not think about prior to posting. I was just trying to get things flowing. As someone pointed out earlier, I saw someone suggest a seemingly "random" lynch in a couple other games, and in all of those cases the person doing the suggesting ended up getting lynched and being a townie. I thought this way we could get a discussion about lynching someone started without having to necessarily lynch whoever did the suggesting.
I feel it's okay if I have a terrible idea, with this being my first game of mafia in my whole life, and all...
We're all newbies at this game, why duck responsibility for your statement? And the discussion was already rolling why did you feel the need to redirect the topic? Trying to establish yourself as the topic starter after an active discussion was already going on: feels a little scummy to me.
How is this "an accusation against [...] how hard the proposal was shut down by ArcticFox and you"? What BroodKing wrote here seems like a totally fine point to make in my book.
2. Calls for a consolidation of the vote here to narrow down the likely suspects for a lynch so that Mafia have a easier time to hide behind the bandwagon:
@The Town: I am kind of worried about the state of the town right now. So far accusations have been flung at everyone in town. This is exactly what the mafia want: us to throw the blame at each other. My suggestion is everyone come up with a vote based on what we have heard in order to consolidate our ideas. This way there will be more pressure on the accused to act.
Of course consolidating votes is a good idea for town. If you consolidate your votes sure Mafia can bandwagon on them, but if you don't you give them every possibility to twist the outcome to their liking because nobody has a large enough edge over the other. Are you proposing we should do that?
3. Next, he follows up on his "suspicions" of Dittert by posting this:
I'm going to vote for Dittert. So far his only attempt at an accusation is willz. He states that willz may be lurking or working. We have far more solid cases than a lurker right now. His second argument makes sense, but he is missing the point. Wiliz thinks Dittert is a bad townie, usually bad townies are Mafia.
How is this statement scummy? It's not a decidedly town statement in itself but it's in no way more likely that it comes from a scum player.
4. I immediately call BroodKingEXE out for his vote on Dittert and here is his response:
On April 13 2012 06:37 BroodKingEXE wrote: @wiliz The problem I have with Dittert is his inactivity, after making an accusation. My vote is by no means confirmed by his inactivity, but its almost halfway through the day and he hasn't put in much effort at all. Hiro has offered nothing substantial as well, bandwagoning on the suspicions of Xatalos. Dittert's claim seems more shaky to me \so I'm going to keep my vote on him.
We have to becareful about releasing scumlists though, as they give the mafia can use them to guide their KP.
Notice that his reasoning for Dittert is very flimsy, he's willing to change his vote at anytime, but feels like picking on the easiest target with the most suspicion and gives little to no weight to his case. Then take a look at the part I highlighted in red, here he starts arguing against transparency and having town not release scumlists. How is that not anti-town behavior? Releasing scumlists helps us hunt scum, it's as simple as that, information not shared is information not known. Very scummy in my mind. This seems like a totally fine point to make, not posting your scum reads is definitely not something you want to do as town. HOWEVER, you seem to have gone by that advice quite a bit today, not posting scum reads for a long time until now.
5. BroodKingEXE lets Dittert off the hook with 1 post! Here:
On April 13 2012 09:23 Dittert wrote: Okay, time to post.
As for lurking, I was at work, where they expect me to... do work and not play TL mafia. I'll be at work tomorrow too. And Saturday! Just FYI, I will actually miss the voting cut-offs due to work, so don't expect any last-minute shenanigans from me.
As for my thoughts, I'm still on the willz22912 kick. He has my ##FoS. Here's what I think went down:
He saw my bad play and jumped on it, trying for a mislynch. I have explained already here:
On April 12 2012 23:53 Dittert wrote: @Xatalos I think you have a decent case against ArcticFox, and I would feel comfortable voting for him Day 1 (as things stand right now).
That being said, I am actually even more suspicious of willz22912. He's lurking now (or sleeping, or at work) after posting a decent number of posts in the first 2 hours of the game. In those posts, he says a couple of things that catch my attention. First,
On April 12 2012 09:05 willz22912 wrote: Lynch all liars is dumb, don't dwell on that..
How does that not scream scum? It's not just that he doesn't want a Lynch all Liars policy (which would in theory encourage, or at least allow for, lying), but he dismisses it out of hand. "Don't dwell on liars" is exactly the kind of thing scum would say.
On April 12 2012 09:16 willz22912 wrote: If the rest of you are going to let that comment by Dittert slide, I'm going to be unhappy. That comment was 100% useless and even if he is town I'm willing to sacrifice him to weed out the real scum.
Town willing to kill other town? Even a bad townie (or a townie with a bad idea) is still a townie. It seems to me that this is a numbers game, and you should want as many people on your team alive as possible.
I think willz22912 saw my bad RNG play as an opportunity to get the town to lynch one of their own, hence all the commotion about it. That ArcticFox immediately joined willz makes me even more suspicious of him (him being AF).
On April 12 2012 11:43 yomi wrote: Hi I just got back from lifting.
I can't think of a more pointless discussion than the one we are having now. It is being led by Broodking, Kharadbanar, and Dittert. I have the most confidence in willz and to a slightly lesser extent arctic.
I'm not sure what we SHOULD be discussing since no investigation abilities have gone out yet, but I doubt this is it. Getting people to talk just for the sake of it is great but my fear is that this discussion will bleed into day 2 when we will have some actual information.
It struck me that he appeared to be jumping on the willz and AFox bandwagon. At this point, I was already suspicious of those two, so yomi siding with them made me suspicious of him as well. Surely though, he couldn't be so dumb as to list out the mafia team right there, could he? Realizing I had no way of figuring that out (maybe it's so dumb is clever, etc.), I let it be.
The next post that caught my attention was this one:
On April 13 2012 01:00 ArcticFox wrote: EBWOP: Also for Yomi -- why is the vote for Dittert if you're sure Brood's scum?
note arctic coming to the defense of dittert aka the most highly suspected player defending the second most highly suspected player.
first big slip?
not sure what to make of hiro accusing xatalos. I think the guy is kind of ridiculous but I think he (xatalos) is town.
arctic/ditt/hiropro mafia 1/2/3 ?
I think this was a ploy to distance yomi from AF and to increase the distance between AF and myself. Seeing as how at the time there was an "AF might be mafia" sentiment floating through the thread, this was a good way to link me to scum. Note how even though he lists the 1/2/3 mafia as AF/me/hiropro, he doesn't vote for #1, he votes for me.
On April 13 2012 06:19 willz22912 wrote: Top town candidate so far besides myself is probably Xatalos, although his case against ArcticFox is highly misguided.
Why would you refer to yourself as the top town candidate unless you wanted to reinforce this belief in people's minds? No one is even remotely accusing you of being scum except for crazy ol' Dittert with his RNG ideas. This seems scummy to me.
After all that, I'm ready to cast my vote.
##Vote: Yomi
First off, this is not even a little bit an OMGUS vote, even though yomi did vote for me. I'm voting for Yomi over willz for several reasons.
1. I don't think anybody else will vote for willz, so essentially a vote for him is like a vote for Ralph Nader. It may be a good idea, but it's a wasted vote. 2. Everyone else seems to think he's town, as far as I can tell. With this being my first game, I admit that my reads may be off.
As far as AFox, people have been discussing X's case against him to death, with no real conclusions being drawn.
Yomi, on the other hand, has not really posted anything of value. His filter is more or less a repeated cry of "yes, I'm posting valid things! I shouldn't have to explain myself!" His vote is currently for me, which due to my lack of posting, is about the "safest" vote you can make.
As for my accusation that Yomi was lying, he did in fact make a statement that can be proved factually false. He had the tools at his disposal to check the facts before he posted. I don't know what else you want to consider "a lie." What you do with that information is up to you. I'm not advocating we policy lynch Yomi because of this "factually incorrect statement." I'm advocating we lynch him because his behavior is consistent with my understanding of scummy behavior.
Acrofales asked for my top 3 town reads, so I'll include those as well.
1. KB - His first vote on HiroPro was clearly to try and get a read on HiroPro's alignment. Mafia don't need to get reads on people's alignment, they already have them. He also did not jump on the "Dittert must be scum for his RNG idea" bandwagon. If he was scum, this would have been an ideal opportunity to try and frame an innocent.
2. Brood - He's reasonably active, but it's more like a scattershot than a laser. He's asking questions of everyone with seemingly no real agenda. Even though I think Brood is town, I also think he says some really stupid shit. For example:
On April 13 2012 05:09 BroodKingEXE wrote: Townies have no need to duck responsibility, their innocence will prevent them from being lynched. Mafia on the other hand will use their newbie status to duck responsibility if they make a bad read
Really? Your innocence will save you? Tell that to the victims of the Spanish Inquisition or the Salem Witch trials.
3. imallinson - He seems normal? I don't really have a strong inclination for anyone in this third town spot. He asks for KB's read on Hiro, which seems helpful to the town.
Okay, discuss!
Glad to see you post Dittert. Innocence will save you, a townie will act like a townie and mafia like a mafia. No matter how hard they try the Mafia will always make mistakes, and as long as you are actively speaking we will be able to see the difference. You've put some pretty good information up, so I'm going to take you off. I don't like your comment about an agenda though, as my only agenda should be helping the town. Me asking questions is my way of scumhunting, so I will continue to call out people on what I see. ##Unvote
So basically, the whole vote on Dittert was pointless, one post (not even saying what parts of it was "good information") lets him take off the vote? How strong are BroodKingEXE's convictions, how readily is he willing to drop his vote and change it to the most easiest target, currently myself? He calls out Yomi here:
On April 13 2012 08:38 BroodKingEXE wrote: @Yomi You vote for dittert. Which means you must make a case against him, or at least declare pressure vote. I started a policy discussion as well, so what makes Dittert more scummy than myself? If you think Artic is defending Dittert(if they are both mafia) I want to know what gives Dittert the lynch today and not tommorrow.
Did BroodkingExe in your minds declare a pressure vote, or make a decent case against Dittert? No? Then why is he calling out Yomi for his own hypocrisy? I at least agree with you on this one, calling yomi out on not declaring a pressure vote is definitely hypocritical. This does however not mean that his pressure vote on Dittert earlier was a bad idea. It certainly was better than the failpressure plan I had against HiroPro.
6. When I defend myself against Dittert's accusation, and tell him to stop because he's not helping. I was admittedly angry because of how relentless he had become in his tunneling of me and took it out on Dittert. BroodkingEXE however, jumps in with this:
This whole post reeks of scum to me. "Why are you continuing to waste discussion": well there is no such thing as wasted discussion if it is an accusation. If he thinks you are scum he has the right to that opinion. The opinion of every town member here (except mafia) is important. "I'm not even pushing for your lynch", so the only time we are allowed to challenge you is if you are attacking us?
The second paragraph is pretty bad you are flat out telling him to stop talking and that his opinion is worthless, this is very anti-town. It doesn't matter if he can't defend it others will analyze his post and make according conclusions of their own.
He says there is no wasted discussion, and every post is important, but he doesn't contribute anything of value except for commenting on my posts against Dittert. But note the red part I highlighted here, What is that sentence supposed to mean? How does he know who is mafia and who is town, and whose opinion is important, does he have the inside knowledge of who's who that only a Mafia would have at this point? You decide. How do you know he meant it that way? If you have someone figured out to be scummy, you are naturally going to trust him less than people you have a town read on, it's not something you can only do if you have confirmation of someone to be town.
7. He continues to post comments about my "discussion" with Dittert:
On April 13 2012 11:25 BroodKingEXE wrote: @willz You clearly said that his opinion about you didn't matter. You say that you having been defending dittert the whole time. You've only done that once as far as I can see. Even if you were defending dittert he doesn't owe you anything, if he thinks you are scum he can't kiss up to save his own hide. If he is thinking on the wrong track then you need to put him back on the right track. This discussion isn't wasted either if we can prove the alignment of each other that is 2 less people the town have to analyze.
I stated that I believed Dittert to be a newbie town who is tunneling me because of a misguided notion that I was trying to mis-lynch him (when did I ever do this, where in the thread did I call on others to vote for Dittert?) Even if I was defending Dittert he doesn't owe me anything, what cause would I have for defending him other than believing he was town, and that town should defend other town? What possible reason could I have as Mafia to defend Dittert? Also note the red part I highlighted again, What is this statement mean as well? How are we supposed to prove the alignment of one another, how am I supposed to change Dittert's opinion of me if he continues to think I am Mafia when I am not?
8. I call BroodKingEXE out on his comments about my posts, and whether or not he has enough spine to actually adhere to a stance: His response is this:
On April 13 2012 11:59 BroodKingEXE wrote: @willz at the moment I dont see anything particularly damning about your other posts, but why waste time engaging dittert? If you really think he is a newbie, then he is really no threat to you. We as a town haven't come to a consensus to vote for you. I think that yomi's baseless accusations are still more damning.
So for all the posts he's made about me, he doesn't see anything wrong with any of my other posts, but currently thinks Yomi is still more suspicious than me. He was not willing to go out on his own and make a case against me supporting Dittert's accusations, he was willing to just post fluff and seem like he's contributing. Why should he have made a case against you when he wasn't that suspicious of you at the time? He even said "I don't see anything particularly damning about your other posts". Do you want him to make a case on you when he thinks you're probably town?
9 Finally, his last post and the vote he makes on me:
On April 14 2012 00:54 BroodKingEXE wrote: I have had time to look over the thread and have come up with some more evidence against willz. His posts are scummy in that they shoot down ideas of people. He hasn't analyzed anyones posts based on their content and seems to be denying open discussion based on who he thinks is scum. I have a problem with this as he said he is all for open discussion, yet he is shooting down ideas. He said that he didn't want to waste time discussing useless things, yet he dug in quite hard on trying to defend dittert even though he thought he was a newbie (and thus had no power). Also, in his in own words the discussion with me was wasted. He didn't chose to uphold his own values, in order to engage me( he didn't even state if he thought I was scum or not).
Vote: willz22912
@AFox the reason I said that was to point out the hippocracy of the situation. He said himself we shouldn't be wasting time, so why did he need to engage dittert (as he said dittert had no case against him). He fell for the bait admitting that the whole thing was trivial, which leads me to believe he is a scum who won't stand by their values.
So now when 4 other people are against me and my lynch is all but assured, he jumps in at the last moment with this? This is plurality vote, 4 should have been enough already, but 5 is all but pointless. Even if you don't change your vote on me, please look at BroodKingEXE for bandwagoning on my lynch with little to no support when I flip town. Yes, this is a good point. Why would he jump on the bandwagon that late if he wasn't suspicious of you before? I don't know, maybe because he read that excellent Acrofales case on you? I don't think that he did this for no reason.
Posting my rebuttal of all of your accusations now.
Now for your accusation against me:
On April 14 2012 02:11 willz22912 wrote: My other top scum reads are KharadBanar (He played well in Newbie VI if you see his OP and his filter, but he has posted little to nothing of worth, never stated an opinion on me, and now is jumping on my lynch because it's easy. Here's his post:
On April 13 2012 20:31 KharadBanar wrote: Okay, I just got up and caught up with the thread, and that huge post by Acrofales did change my priorities here somewhat:
Before, my biggest scum reads went something like this: Dittert, yomi, HiroPro, maybe BroodKing (?) I had my vote on yomi to get him to contribute something useful, which isn't going to happen until shortly before the deadline so it's useless on him for that purpose and better off on one of my bigger scum reads.
Now Acrofales has posted his suspicion on willz, I see some extremely good points in that post and did as he said (read through willz's filter (1) "knowing" he was mafia and (2) "knowing" he was town) and the mafia explanation really does make a lot more sense.
Now my scum reads go as follows: willz, probably Dittert, and likely one of yomi and HiroPro the lurkers. With this in mind, and the fact that willz really needs to explain himself, I will change my vote to him for he is my biggest scum read right now.
##Unvote ##Vote: willz22912
So his opinion of Mafia behavior is to bus someone else this early? Why would Dittert be Mafia yet push his teammate's lynch? How does this logic work? What basis do you have of your own opinion to vote me, considering you never even had me on your radar before.
I try only to post real reads when I'm pretty sure of them. Other than that, I post my thoughts on other people's reads if I think I am contributing to the overall discussion, and I try to explain my reasoning if people accuse me of being scum. This all together means I am not very vocal in Day 1 discussion except for the initial non-productive banter. I do not post my opinion of everyone and everything in this thread, and I don't generally post my town reads because it gives scum a nice list of people to kill at night. Since you were a townread in my book right up until Acrofales' well thought-out case, I "never stated an opinion on you" as you explained above. It is not my "opinion of Mafia behaviour that they bus someone this early". However, you can never know what Mafia can come up with: If they know you're excluding the possibility of bussing this early, they will definitely try to do it, because then they have you confused. So I am not ruling out the possibility, and neither should you. As for basis of my own opinion to vote you, you have just given me more than enough source material with you BroodKingEXE accusation.
Since I begun writing this, there have been some other posts. I'll try responding to them if I have anything to say about them, but I'll put this out there for now.
On April 14 2012 02:55 willz22912 wrote: @ KharadBanar
You're really going to assume that this is a giant ploy by Mafia to bus me so Dittert gains credibility? I find that to be totally without basis and completely WIFOM on what Mafia would do. Fine, don't exclude it from your thinking, but do you really honestly believe that is the most likely scenario here? What about that we're both town and it's a mis-lynch, that is not likely at all to you? Why are you associating that Dittert and I are both Mafia in your minds so strongly? You've posted in the past about your suspicions about Dittert, but this is the first time you've linked us together as the Mafia team, and that logic is absurd and full of WIFOM.
Also, you post holes in my case about BroodKingEXE but you seem to gloss over the correlation between 8. and 9. So you're willing to let him slide for admitting that he saw nothing suspicious or wrong about anything else, but when Acrofales makes his case, he's allowed to go from 0 suspicion to voting me? So again, BroodKingEXE is not willing to make his own case, but he will eagerly follow anothers lead? Does this not strike you as scummy?
You also think the Acrofales case on me is the key point in my demise, okay, I will go write a rebuttal to that now.
About the bus: I don't have 100% scum reads on both you and Dittert. The fact that you're my strongest reads doesn't mean there is not actually a higher possibility of only one of you being scum, where this isn't a bus but either a scum member accusing a townie or a townie being right in his speculation. I just see a high possibility of there being a scum between the two of you. If you manage to explain your motivations behind the things Acrofales pointed out about you, I'd probably be willing to take my vote off you, because yomi and HiroPro then seem more scummy to me at this point, so please go ahead.
>Can you be more specific about what you want me to explain? Acrofales case is really long and I don't know what exactly you're looking for. I specifically found the first part (I. The Non-Contribution) to be very damning, where he points out that you accused people of picking easy targets without explanation and then picked easy targets without explanation. And please give another explanation than "I played badly" because that's also truthful if you actually are scum failing to cover up your laziness. Also, the OMGUS on BroodKing that Acrofales elaborated upon needs some explanation, because it looks as if you're Mafia and didn't like that he just pointed out your game plan.
>I was overly defensive against Dittert because he wouldn't leave me alone, that got me angry and asking him why he keeps insisting that I'm Mafia without reinforcing his case when I asked him what I have done to draw his suspicions. This is actually quite believable to me. I can understand people getting emotional when they are accused of something and don't know what exactly to respond to.
If you can explain yourself, I am willing to accept your defense and switch my vote probably to HiroPro because he has been lurking the whole time, posting some fluff in between with even less content than my posts in my lurkier period. Maybe if he gathers more than 3 votes you'll live, if you're really a townie don't pull an IdrA and prematurely gg.
willz: This is not what I meant when I said "If you're really a townie don't gg yet" >_> I think you still look pretty scummy after Acrofales' post, but if you manage to explain that behaviour I'm willing to vote someone else. If you are "content with your fate" of getting lynched, I view that as an admission to not being able to properly explain yourself, and it makes you feel scummier. Just putting that thought process out there.
You have remained resolute and resourceful in an atmosphere of extreme pessimism. I applaud you for that, and I think Mafia would have had a harder time with that. Therefore I'm now unvoting you.
##Unvote
As I explained earlier, I am missing contribution by HiroPro, and I said earlier I would vote him for that. I stand by my word, so:
##Vote: HiroPro
Anyone else with a vote on willz at this time please reconsider, taking into account what he said on the last pages.
On April 14 2012 04:49 Xatalos wrote: Willz, please listen. Look at the situation like this (I believe this is the case):
- Willz is town - yomi is Mafia
Here are the possible outcomes:
A) We lynch Willz. He flips town. We lynch yomi tomorrow. He flips Mafia. There is no certainty about who are townies and who are not. B) We lynch yomi. He flips Mafia. We now know Willz is town have a town read on willz, as well as I and ArcticFox. We can lynch someone else tomorrow.
FTFY
We cannot ever see someone as confirmed town before he flips. This way lies a mafia victory because they can use that hugely to their advantage. And never ever say about yourself to be confirmed town. Ever. This just makes you suspicious
I can see the validity of your BroodKing case now willz, and I'm seriously considering switching my vote if we get enough backing. Consider the following: If willz and yomi are both town (granted, yomi is a really noob townie then, but still), BroodKing can just bandwagon on whomever he sees the most town hate at the moment. Even if willz is town and yomi is scum, a scum BroodKing can just go for the "easy" town cred in that case, saying he did vote on the right player when yomi flips red.
I agree. If there's a vigilante out there listening, shoot into yomi. I looked into the OP if scum can have medic powers and it seems they can't, they just have a Goon, a Roleblocker and a Framer. So go right ahead that night
On April 14 2012 07:06 vonKlaust wrote: Where is Willz btw? Did he give up?
I'm guessing he did. It will be a nice suprise for him when he gets back. He is still alive and most likely confirmed town a huge townread.
Fixed
I seriously can't stand that people are thinking of other people as confirmed, especially after I spectated TL Mafia LI and the events therein. That game hat the most epic bus of all time between VisceraEyes and Toadesstern, and EVERYBODY thought Toadesstern would be confirmed town after VE flipped. (Spoiler alert: Toad was scum.)
So please don't consider someone confirmed town if they haven't flipped yet. Ever. Please.
vonKlaust: A bunch of people changed onto the BroodWagon from having previously voted on yomi, so their votes are missing from him now. Take that into consideration.
The even more interesting question about that is: How? How did BroodKingEXE think he would contribute to the town if he voted someone he thought to be less scummy? How?
Also with that, I think I'm going to part from the thread as well for the (EU) night. Good night to all the people in europe, and good evening to the americans! I'm out.
On April 14 2012 20:26 Xatalos wrote: I haven't said I have 100% confidence in my cases. Indeed I have said things like "ArcticFox is 70-80%" Mafia or "yomi is 90% Mafia". That might seem like over-confidence or exaggeration, but I don't mean the percentages as a scale from zero to 100%: if I say someone is 50% Mafia, I have a neutral read on him, and 50-100% Mafia means likely Mafia. So with yomi being 90% Mafia I mean that from a scale of 1 to 5, his Mafia rating would be 4.
How about you express the percentage as a probability of someone being Mafia? So everyone starts at 25% (3/12) and goes up or down with town reads or scum reads that you have on him; the sum of all percentages should be 300% since there's three scum members in the game right now. That way it's pretty easy to decide which lynch candidates you're comfortable with, namely everyone over 50% chance of being Mafia which I agree yomi looks to be right now. willz I have pegged at about 45%, but I would not be comfortable lynching him right now.
I think the night is not the time to discuss one's reads in depth though, because better cases and discussion can be made when we know the results of the night actions and who flipped what. The only persons who really need to consider whom they think to be most likely Mafia/most likely to be shot by mafia should be the blue roles, because they need to decide whom they target with their actions. However, in my opinion they should do so for themselves so that scum can't know who's going to be protected/shot/blocked etc. That being said, if a vigilante is in this game I would like him to announce his action at the end of the night/one minute before the deadline, when Mafia can't react to his shot anymore. With this, I end my night rant and won't be very active in discussion until we have good information about the results of the night actions.
Wait, how fast is this Dittert bandwagon? This reminds me suspiciously of the BroodWagon.
On the other hand, there have been substantial accusations against Dittert already that night, so I might as well roll with it for the time being, since I don't see anything obviously wrong with them.
##Vote: Dittert
I'm going to be off for the (RL/Europe) night and reflecting on the situation. Tomorrow I'll post my reads in depth, and possibly revote if I find someone to be more scummy than Dittert. See you in about 10 hours!
KharadBanar's Comprehensive Scum Probability List™
Okay, I promised you a comprehensive post of reads at Daybreak so here are my completely reworked thoughts of the current situation. I have applied the logic I proposed to Xatalos earlier and made them percentage based on what probability I think they have to be scum right now. The percentages add up to (roughly) 300%, for the three scum members currently in the game. We have 10 players left in total (9 if you don't count me, whom I know is town), so a null read means 3/9 = 33% scum probability. Also, a fair warning: Clicking all the links to other posts in this monster probably leads to you rereading half the thread, exactly as I did while writing this.
ArcticFox - 0% BroodKingEXE - 0% These two are included for the sake of completeness - we know they are confirmed town because they flipped.
KharadBanar - 0% Nothing huge to say here either. Note these probabilities are based upon what I can see in the game, therefore I have the 0% by my name. Every other town player sees some nonzero percentage for me and 0% for himself, but I obviously can't reflect the views of everyone in this chart since I don't know your opinions as well as my own.
Opens by suspecting me, I defend myself well enough and he proceeds to drop the case and contributes more to the discussion. He goes around ##FoSing Dittert and yomi, never forgetting to back his accusations up with quotes and arguments. Later, we get a nice semi-case against HiroPro, but it gets not much notice in comparison to his case against willz22912 a bit later which is actually strong enough to convince other people to join him. He sadly isn't around for the conclusion of Day 1, but more than makes up for it during the Night, where he engages in productive discussion around blues and night shots. The night is rounded off by him posting his reads in a fashion not quite unlike this post.
Has been one of the most contributing posters so far. He doesn't shit up the thread and always has something new to say to the discussion. If scum were to try to look town, they most likely would at least try to repost old arguments/opinions in a new form, which I honestly can't say Acrofales did.
Early on, we have a case made by ArcticFox which points out a "filter full of useless junk" from him. His defense is reasonable, and since this was in the early phase of Day 1 where nobody really had a grip on the other players, I don't think it is of much importance now. Later, he points out some fallacies in Xatalos' thoughts about imallinson which we could see as pretty normal if that was now, but he was pretty much the first person to do so - this receives townie points because Mafia would probably just let Xatalos spout random opinions and leave him alone because it's going to confuse the town. About halfway through Day 1, he is asked to post some reads and responds by giving willz22912 as his top town read and saying he's suspicious of HiroPro. He then proceeds to read willz's filter and gets a bit suspicious. This is also a townslip in my mind, because it's more likely for mafia to be set in their ways about a player without needing to read their filter first, having the knowledge of their alignment given beforehand. (It's not impossible for scum to be a little waffly, though) Next thing that happens is that Xatalos actually full-on accuses vonKlaust of being "indecisive and unproductive", to which vonKlaust retorts pointing out Xatalos' confirmation bias. This evolves into a full-on argumentative discussion with HiroPro where vonKlaust stayed calm and used logic. The next (RL) day, Acrofales has already posted his case on willz, to which vonKlaust responds by not mindlessly bandwagoning but adding his own thought on the matter. This is also something pretty town to do in my mind. During the slight chaos that ensued with the voting for willz, yomi and BroodKingExe, he did what the "normal" player in this game did and jumped from willz to yomi to BroodKingEXE. Null to me. Night 1, vonKlaust voices his thoughts on the Dittert vs willz situation (pointing out a willz scumslip, albeit with slight confirmation bias) as well as asking Xatalos to be less aggressive.
Conclusion: most likely townie, but could do with slightly less EBWOWOBOB as he calls it (EBWOP) and maybe less one-liners. But then again, my filter is also full of those, so I shouldn't be hyprocritical.
Begins the game not doing very much. He agrees with Xatalos' case on ArcticFox and adds a bit to it, then supports Acrofales' slight pressure against me, then talks a little more about ArcticFox. This seems like a slight case of tunneling, but nothing too major especially seeing as it came in the first half of Day 1 when we had little filter material to go by. He brings up lurker discussion, then brings up Xatalos' aggressiveness as a town trait which I don't agree with, but at least I see how somebody could think so. After ArcticFox managed to defend himself quite well, imallinson proceeds to pressure against trumpetarn to get answers out of him (spoiler alert: It isn't very successful. trumpetarn manages to make exactly one post in response to it. During the second half of Day 1, Xatalos accuses him in typical Xatalos fashion, then imallinson puts up an okay-ish defense, nothing much comes out of that case. He is also involved in the mislynch of BroodKingEXE, but I again don't think that says much of anything. At Night, he gets a little more concrete and posts his reads as well as a nice case against Dittert (another one, but based on the new evidence Dittert has posted at the beginning of the night, it's pretty good to have). Day 2, he runs with that and votes for Dittert.
If we hadn't got enough scumreads already, it would be easy for me to tunnel on you and make a case out of the amount of waffling in your filter like Xatalos usually does, but there are so many people who are more likely scum than you that you don't end up as more than a null read to me.
His first post is a response to my weak pressure voting at the start. You can get a sense of how fail that pressure vote was when you consider that the next posts have no substance whatsoever and Hiro goes back to lurking again for three hours. After that, he actually posts a case and votes against Xatalos on the basis of him being too aggressive; he later calls Dittert a newb townie rather than mafia here and defends himself against BroodKingEXE who accused him of bandwagoning onto Xatalos. After Xatalos' vonKlaust case, Hiro agrees with him and joins his vonKlaust vote. He proceeds to have a little argument with vonKlaust, then unvotes him because vonKlaust did defend himself reasonably. Ending the day, HiroPro arrives just in time to jump on the tail end of the BroodWagon, however not without giving his own opinion on the subject which is more than I expected from a typical lurker at that point. Today, he posted a case on Xatalos which, though I don't necessarily agree with a high probability of Xatalos being mafia, presents a reasonable and thought out line of reasoning for a scum Xatalos.
He doesn't always post, but when he does, it's generally thought out and agreeable. I don't know if that makes him The Most Interesting Poster In The World, but it certainly doesn't make him scum per se. I actually begin to see a scum consistency after reading his last post and looking at Xatalos' filter. He is a null read in my book, and because we have probable mafia targets aplenty in our current situation, my Null Read Scum Probability Level has dropped from 33% (3/9) to about 25%.
The first real contribution is him pointing out a bad case by Xatalos on ArcticFox, which is entirely justifiable. Later, Dittert makes his first case on him and he explains himself, slightly OMGUSsing Dittert in the process. His first real read is a scum read on imallinson, at the same time stating he thinks Dittert to be a newb town instead of scum. Again fully understandable at that point in the game. Soon, a bit of an OMGUS war starts between Dittert and willz and other people are lead to the belief that willz is scum, most importantly because of a really good case by Acrofales. He manages to defend himself a bit, then posts a case against BroodKingEXE which I proceed to inspect closely and see some holes in it. After that, he defendshimselfwell enough that I retract my vote against him. Shortly after that, he goes really emo on himself, only to let the others convince him of going for yomi shortly thereafter. This is the last we hear of him Day 1, he was not a participant in the BroodWagon. At Night, there is a useful read post from him as well as some defense against a case by vonKlaust, and some more defense against further inquisition by Xatalos.
willz has probably had to defend himself the most of all the players in this game, and he always has some explanation for his actions. Despite this, these explanations are far from the only ones for his behaviour. He makes slip-ups often enough to at least reasonably assume that he is indeed a Mafia member who is just really good at finding townie motivations for his actions. This is however no strong accusation, it is still more likely he is town in my eyes.
I apologise for this analysis being a bit half assed, but Xatalos has posted the most volume out of any of us. Holy shit, I actually made a full play-by-play of Xatalos' posts and lived through it! Anyway, here we go: His doesn't even mess around with his first post, quickly putting up a case against ArcticFox. About twenty minutes later, he gets even more aggressive and puts up two other suspicions - yomi and imallinson. A little later, the FoS goes to me for my failedpressure vote on HiroPro. I defend myself a bit pointing out his aggressiveness in making suspicions, and he proceeds to call this pointing out of aggressiveness a "case", responding to it with a bit of a strawman argument. He FoSes HiroPro for suspecting him (again pointing out his aggressiveness), goes on defending his aggressive playstyle and gets his ArcticFox case picked apart by Acrofales. A little later, he suddenly gets suspicious of vonKlaust whom I had a townie feeling about even at that point. vonKlaust defends himself and Xatalos steps off the case, expressing his suspicion of imallinson again. imallinson responds, and Xatalos respects that. His next suspicion arises when Acrofales posts his willz case: Xatalos runs with it, adding his thoughts to the case. After yomi's first large case against Dittert, he promptly votes for yomi, giving three pretty good reasons for it. In fact, this case was so good that he convinced half the town to votewithhim before people stormed off to BroodKingEXE for his "scumslip". Also one of the persons to hop on the BroodWagon. At Night, Xatalos is very vocal in directing blue roles while simultaneously softclaiming vanilla townie (he asks the Jailer to act on him that night.) This is a slightly suspicious action because if he is scum, he can draw the Jailer onto him and then have another scum member perform the night action, making it look like he is confirmed town when actually he isn't. Of course the play also makes much sense from a Vanilla Townie perspective, but it's slightly wasting the Jailer action for that night so I wouldn't do it in his position as a VT. He gets calledout by yomi for suspecting many people and writes a reasonable reply. He then continues to post walls of text during the night, writing out in detail his thoughts about different aspects of the game. Later, there's another case on yomi. This leads to another vote on yomi as Day 2 begins. After an accusation from HiroPro, he posts a rather wordy defense, reflecting reasonably about his previous plays and consolidating his vote on Dittert.
In Xatalos, I see a player who gets suspicious of other people pretty fast, but that is not necessarily a bad attidude for a town player to have. The problem he has is tunnelvisioning on the bad aspects of other players, im some cases not seeing a town motivation for certain actions when there is one. He has addressed this and is aware of it, but as long as he doesn't act on it and stops actually tunneling, I'll be suspicious of him. Be aware that much of his play makes equally as much sense from a scum perspective, assuming a somewhat leading position in the town and confusing people by putting out suspicions on town players.
His first real contribution comes in at a point where most people already have posted their first reads. It's for Dittert and has no reasoning behind it, which is instant suspicion in my eyes. Later, he accuses people of pointless discussion, having contributed next to nothing himself. His first case (against Dittert) comes at a time where Day 1 is already on the way to its conclusion and it's not that well thought out, but at least there's a [newb] townie explanation for it: He and Dittert have been fighting the whole day over little things, so it's understandable for yomi to get emotional and tunnel a bit. After receiving quite a bit of flak from Xatalos, he goes against him as well. Shit hits the fan after some time, with Xatalos convincing more and more people that yomi is actually mafia. In a desperate maneuver, yomi votes for his greatest town tell, willz to save himself from getting lynched that day. This action does not save him, however something else does: The BroodWagon comes along and yomi is the first to vote for BroodKingEXE. After BroodKingEXE flips, Xatalos suspects yomi once more, yomi retorts by pointing out his tunneling. Xatalos has spent the past hours only with speaking against yomi and BroodKingEXE at this point (and saving willz to lynch yomi). He then accuses Xatalos of suspecting too many different targets, something that's also very true. This is continued with two lengthy defense posts on Xatalos which I don't see too much wrong with at this point. After that, he declares the Xatalos situation done with and goes back to accusing Dittert.
We are now getting to the scummy regions of my read scale: In the beginning, I thought yomi was a really easy mafia read with the amount of accusations he put out without really backing them up. His night defense against Xatalos has made me slightly more unsure of that, especially when combined with Hiro's case on Xatalos. I strongly believe there is a scum somewhere in that pairing, but I'm not exactly sure which of them. I'm still leaning on yomi though.
At first Dittert just seemed newb townie with his random lynch proposal which quickly got torn apart. The first [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14319138]case he made was against willz, who was something of an easy target at the time with his opinions on policies. I don't value policy opinions that much when I'm thinking about possible scum reads, because a "wrong" opinion can easily mean that someone is town but simply hasn't thought about things that much. As soon as yomi makes himself suspicious later in the day, he makes a [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14323933]case[/url] against him, which I probably would have made too if I were scum, considering how easy it is to get town cred with a bus on a buddy who's looking not to live very long at that point. If Dittert is scum and yomi is town, it also makes sense because scum can force a situation similar to the BroodWagon at this point. Then there is a [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14324538]case[/url] on willz where he says "I will engage you because I want you to slip up some more as mafia". You can also do this on a townie to force him to say some things he will later regret, since you can easily quote them out of context. The case itself is not that bad, but it's not the most convincing of cases either. Later in the day, he [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14332256]votes[/url] for willz on the basis of his case. He does not switch to the BroodWagon later that day. However, the most damning post in my mind is the [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14338722]one[/url] he made after the BroodKingEXE lynch: It's full of OMGUS against practically the whole town for engaging in his lynch, when a town Dittert probably would have done the same had he been at home during the time where BroodKingEXE made his slipup. As of late, he seems to have followed willz from the last day in [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14348189]going all emo on himself[/url].
Since Dittert made the last night's post, he really slipped from newb town to full-on scum in my mind. There is no way I'm going to justify not contributing to the discussion and accusing the whole town of bad play. He is my number one lynch target for today and I'm glad to see that the current state of discussion seems to agree with me. ##Vote: Dittert
FINISHING THOUGHTS One thing I want to mention that I haven't got the possibility to in my filter analysis is the fact that now ArcticFox and BroodKingEXE are confirmed town, we probably should look through what they had to say about the game and take it into consideration, because with their opinions we have no chance of getting biased by mafia wanting to fool us. Especially ArcticFox's filter looks like a good place to start for me. I will not do this now however, since I have spent the last six hours looking through filters and I really need a break right now. I hope this post by me will get discussion going a bit since I have invested so much time in it now. Enjoy!
Funcmode, welcome to our thread. I hope you can use this post as a good recap of what happened so far if you haven't kept up with it.
At first Dittert just seemed newb townie with his random lynch proposal which quickly got torn apart. The first case he made was against willz, who was something of an easy target at the time with his opinions on policies. I don't value policy opinions that much when I'm thinking about possible scum reads, because a "wrong" opinion can easily mean that someone is town but simply hasn't thought about things that much. As soon as yomi makes himself suspicious later in the day, he makes a case against him, which I probably would have made too if I were scum, considering how easy it is to get town cred with a bus on a buddy who's looking not to live very long at that point. If Dittert is scum and yomi is town, it also makes sense because scum can force a situation similar to the BroodWagon at this point. Then there is a case on willz where he says "I will engage you because I want you to slip up some more as mafia". You can also do this on a townie to force him to say some things he will later regret, since you can easily quote them out of context. The case itself is not that bad, but it's not the most convincing of cases either. Later in the day, he votes for willz on the basis of his case. He does not switch to the BroodWagon later that day. However, the most damning post in my mind is the one he made after the BroodKingEXE lynch: It's full of OMGUS against practically the whole town for engaging in his lynch, when a town Dittert probably would have done the same had he been at home during the time where BroodKingEXE made his slipup. As of late, he seems to have followed willz from the last day in going all emo on himself.
On April 16 2012 01:42 Acrofales wrote: This means: if you are town, step up your game. Be active today. We have 3 scum left and I really want N2 to start with only 2 scum left. At the moment, we are lynching into Dittert, Yomi, Xatalos, Willz and imallison, which is just too many people. I actually think Dittert's final post was quite townie. It reminded me quite a bit of bluelightz (in any game he plays town): not contributing, but angry when everybody else screws it up. My question is: does the anger and frustration in his post feel genuine to you?
I am inclined to think it's genuine and that, counterintuitively lowers the chance of him being scum.
What he HAS managed to do is kill all D2 discussion. Lets discuss our other targets.
OK, I'll start: If we want to put two or three scum into the five of Dittert, yomi, Xatalos, willz22912 and imallinson, we have to consider some interactions between them.
yomi has warred on Day 1 with Dittert, Xatalos and willz pretty hard, and during the night he has argued quite a bit with Xatalos about his aggressive posting style. This means that Dittert/yomi, Xatalos/yomi and willz/yomi are less likely to be scum together; if they are, yomi is putting on a pretty nice bus.
Dittert/willz is an even less likely scum pair, because they went at each other when scum would really have had no reason for it.
I didn't consider imallinson to be that scummy of a player, but looking at his filter again I see where you're coming from. I wouldn't however be very confident lynching him.
This means I would try to fit two scum into the four of Dittert, yomi, Xatalos and willz, and because of their interactions with one another I would lean on Xatalos and one of willz and Dittert. This is however under the assumption that there wasn't a mafia bus on Day 1. If we include that possibility, we have the following:
Dittert/willz is a really really unlikely bus pair like I described above. Dittert/yomi is only slightly more likely, because I feel like they're pretty new players even if they're scum and I don't think really new players would have the balls to bus that hard. yomi/willz is still an unlikely bus, seeing as each of them voted for each other to save himself, but it's at least thinkable for me. yomi/Xatalos is a pair which I wouldn't describe as that unlikely, because if Xatalos is scum, the easy way for him to get some credibility is to accuse his really scummily behaving team member. I have the feeling a scum bus could naturally evolve from that.
That means placing 2 scum in the four players of Dittert, Xatalos, willz and yomi means that Xatalos is pretty likely to be scum if we accept the assumption that there are 2 scum in there in the first place.
Conclusion:
##FoS: Xatalos
I won't step off my Dittert vote just yet, because I still don't feel his vote from the beginning of Day 2 redeems himself to be town.
On April 16 2012 02:24 willz22912 wrote: @KB, I disagree that I "warred" with Yomi. If look through my filter, I consistently said that I thought he was also newb town and that he was tunneling Dittert for the same reason Dittert was tunneling me.
Oh sorry. I didn't research that as much as I probably should have, my head is still bursting from the filter analyses earlier, and my memory of Xatalos saying you flipping town would paint yomi more scummy (he did once) came together in my head in the wrong way.
So, this just made you being scum together with yomi a bit more likely (you still voted for one another but still). Do you have something to say to that?
On April 16 2012 02:41 willz22912 wrote: I'm not going to really defend myself from your opinion, considering I really can't in the first place. Yomi and I voting each other to save ourselves doesn't prove alignment unless one of us actually flips, there are reasonable explanations for us doing that as either both town, 1 mafia/1town, or both mafia. Think whatever you want.
This wasn't meant as a hard accusation. It was rather a continuation of the argument I made one post earlier, and I mentioned that for completeness. It's my read going from ~null to scum-ish, not from scum-ish to a "lynch please".
My comfortableness with lynches is now as follows:
1. Dittert 2. Xatalos 3. yomi 4. willz
I will still accept everyone's arguments to convince me why his specific lynch choice would be a better one, as long as I find them valid.
Oh hello funcmode. Welcome to the chaotic mess that is our thread. If you hadn't read it before and want to get some directions, you may want to read my and Acrofales' analysis posts. In mine, there's like reads to half the thread so you can click yourself around and see roughly what happened when.
I understand this is a tall order for someone who's not caught up at all, but I hope you can overcome that daunting task and actually contribute to the game :D
When he said "I might just turtle up tonight" he is meaning this as in "If I were you...". The whole thing is meant as an advice to our blue roles, not as claiming what he did that night. You also conveniently quoted the wrong post so people don't see that. Good job.
Very informative and logical post Acrofales. I have no idea what the best way of figuring out Dittert's and Xatalos' alignment is though. Do you have any proposal in what order we should approach the lynch? Our time is really running out, two mislynches and we lose the game so we better not make any errors; we must however take some chances. What is your opinion on the relative probabilities of Xatalos and Dittert being scum?
SO I have finished the epic analysis that is Acrofales' posts and pretty much all of it makes sense to me, except that I find it a bit more likely that Xatalos is scum and his teammates are sacrificing him/voting for him to get cred right now. It's not the most probable thing but still, I want it to be considered.
As for your last post, I agree that HiroPro is the most likely scum read out of them, especially with how zealous he was against Xatalos who is town by the above assumption. In the unlikely case that Dittert is scum, this makes especially much sense, where HiroPro desperately wants to dodge the lynch on his buddy by making a new case on a relatively easy target.
Well, first of all I want to emphasise that I was mainly "sheeping" Acrofales with that vote, because of his three-part analysis that seemed sound to me and proposed HiroPro as one of the possible lynch targets (but not Xatalos, whom I was voting at the time). This is what Acrofales wrote about HiroPro's filter:
Acrofales wrote:
Responded to pressure vote in a lacadaisical manner (as expected). Pointed out problem with LaL. Made a good, brief post about Xatalos' useless case against ArcticFox. Also points out inconsistent behaviour. Pointed out yomi's OMGUS dodge of the question. However, his filter is pretty much void of any actual opinions. Votes all over the place and a flimsy case on Xatalos.
Soft defends trumpetarm: possible connection?
Starts to get into the spirit of the game around April 13 07:11. Is convinced that Xatalos is town and his case against vonKlaust is good. Maybe too easy, maybe not.
Holy hypocrit. vonKlaust correctly points out the hipocrisy in his argument. Throwing blame around and hoping it sticks?
Soft defense of Dittert?
Scrambles to cover his tracks on the hipocrisy argument.
Scum read on broodking... in a post comparing the three. The bandwagon was already gone by this point. CLASSIC mafia ploy.
Makes a decent case on xatalos and votes. Maybe trying to sort out dittert's mess. Does not make much sense if dittert is town.
Could still be very noob town.
Townometer: i Scumometer: iiii
Also, IF Hiro should flip town, we then have a real suspect in Xatalos whom Hiro crusaded against today so vehemently.
And this is, in a relatively short explanation, why I am voting HiroPro.
On April 17 2012 23:31 Acrofales wrote: @KB. I looked over your other Newbie game and you seemed to be a bit more active in D2 there, engaging people in conversation all over the place and more of a leader than a follower, as opposed to this D2. I have gone into a what-if scenario where we have so far been completely wrong in our scumreads and your name pops up on my scumdar. I don't think there is any harm in continuing the analysis and scumhunting in the night this time, because mafia can kill whoever they like as long as they get to manipulate tomorrow's vote. So. Scum top 3 and why.
I'm sorry, just came back from uni (long day today, and probably the rest of the week too) and read up on the thread:
I don't think as much as other people that Acrofales is scum. Mafia may be good, but I believe they're not good enough to make one of the top 2 town reads right now.
Top 3 5, in order of scumminess:
After willz22912's post about Acrofales, he (again) set off a scum warning in my head, and looking back to his posting history I realised that the only reason I unvoted him once was that his defense seemed genuine at the time. Now it looks as if he has to defend himself once too often. I really have a bad feeling about him.
yomi is still going strong as another probable read; he has seemed kinda middlish (between town and scum, rather on the townie side) for a long time, but I recently looked back at his Day 1 filter and boy does it look scummy. Looking at it again I don't really understand why town dropped him as the lynch for the day so quickly and went after BroodKingEXE.
imallinson is in the reverse situation: He looks pretty scummy in his latest posts, but not so much before that. I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt however, since BroodKing and HiroPro were pretty much lynched on the same basis and I have absolutely no intention of repeating that.
Dittert and Xatalos are not as suspect as during Day 2 coming from Acrofales' connection analysis, but they still have a way to go before being completely cleared in my mind.
That's it for my nightly reads, if that leads to Acrofales getting shot in the end I apologize, but I don't think he's the one to be hated on right now. I will probably see you again no earlier than tomorrow because my university schedule is really stepping it up after spring break, but I think I can make one or two posts from uni computers.
On April 18 2012 04:06 Acrofales wrote: EBWOP: and when I say "town continue without me", I mean in the case that mafia shoots me. If it doesn't I will continue my frenetic activity to keep everybody posting.
KB: any take on HiroPro's will? And the night happenings? I have you as a town read, so stay active and fight the apathy! Think of Newbie VI: you started the game lynching two townies and fought back to victory! We can do this.
Yeah I'm still awake and somewhat reading the thread so I may as well post as much as I can before going to bed.
I already stated what I think of the Acrofales case, namely that I don't believe him to be a likely scum. About the Xatalos thing, I think he's still likelier to be scum than you believe Acrofales, but not as highly as Hiro put it ("Lynch first, ask questions later") He mentions Dittert once and I basically also think that your reasoning (shoot him tonight no matter what) is a bit better than what Hiro proposed (he said don't lynch which is technically a superset to your instructions but sounds as if we should keep him alive).
On April 18 2012 08:15 Xatalos wrote: I'm not sure anymore about the Mafia read Acrofales had on yomi, but I certainly agree with Willz and funcmode. Let's lynch Willz now, though, since most can agree it's the best read we have at the moment.
KharadBanar, why no nightly post? Did you have to go AFK at such a moment? Luckily you weren't shot though. What do you think of the dying posts of Acrofales? He was your best town read, so I put value in your opinion.
Sorry about no nightly post. Spring break is over for me and I'm getting up at 8:15 AM again. I value my sleep schedule, so I went to bed before the Day post (I did address this in an earlier post).
SO, without further ado because I didn't die that night, here's my thoughts on the situation:
Acrofales being dead, we have to worry about who takes the initiative in leading the discussion and I'm currently not very comfortable with a potential scum member doing so in Xatalos (I don't think Xatalos should be our lynch since he's not the most likely of Mafia members, but enough so that I don't necessarily think him taking over is a good thing for town. I will be as active as I can while I can, during the [EU] day I will likely not be as active (read: probably not at all) because I'm at the university. vonKlaust, if you're reading this: make an effort and get active again, the town needs contributors now and you are probably the most towny player around besides me. If you make a thought out case, people are going to trust you, use that trust! About Xatalos, one last thing to note is that after willz' defense, Xatalos just attacked him further without addressing his defense. On this alone, I would argue that he's an even likelier mafia member than willz, but his activeness and general behaviour suggests otherwise.
willz22912: He defended himself (again!) and while his reasoning is okay in that, I'm still very unsure because of how often willz managed to get himself in such a situation in this game: No matter how good your defense is, if you have to defend yourself too often, then in general it's because you scumslip often and I'm going to get suspicious. In willz' case, I'm very suspicious. His reads are okay though, making a good point about imallinson.
About that: imallinson, where are you? You didn't do too much scummy, but you only ever contributed to discussion in easy ways, and it's not looking like you are making any attempt to get more active either. As a non-Dittert player, I expect better from you, and I'm slightly suspicious because of that since you look like you at least know what you are talking about, when you're talking.
That concludes my morning reads; if you're one of my suspected players get out there and say why I'm wrong, if you're not get out there and scumhunt! This may be our final day, let's not waste it!
On April 18 2012 17:41 Xatalos wrote: Willz's defense is good, but if he's the Mafia leader, it would make sense. Everyone also keeps saying the Mafia team is good, which means they have superior argumentation skills (the average Mafia is more skilled than the average town in this game). I don't think I can beat Willz straight-on with logic and argumentation, but I'll try breaking his defense later when I have more time. Although I have more confidence in you than myself making him slip his defense right now... For now, I ask everyone to think about this: Willz is clearly one of the most skilled players in this game, yet his almost only pro-town contribution so far is his weak and forced case against BroodKingEXE. Does that make any sense for a town player?
This argument about willz actually makes sense. You would think a player who can give such good arguments defensively would make better cases while he's not preoccupied with defending himself, or would actually make any good cases for that matter. As for you, your defensive arguments sometimes make little sense but then so do your cases. I'm not arguing that this is necessarily good play but at least it's consistent. Note that consistency doesn't necessarily make a player town, but inconsistency is a scum tell, and willz is guilty of it.
(This post is addressed at willz22912's whole triadofposts.)
You generally bring good arguments why you should not be considered as scummy as Xatalos here, but I noticed some details here and there which I'm not completely sure about:
willz22912 wrote: Comparing our martyrdom situations, I at least continued to be active and post while I was the majority vote, whereas Dittert saw himself as the majority vote and clammed up without providing any other useful information. Brood did the same thing with his scumslip and not even posting anything useful by the time he died. Both these actions were considered scummy enough to lynch for, but now you're lynching me for behaving the exact opposite way?
Saying that too little defense is bad does not mean that more defense is always better. There is an optimum somewhere, and both of you have missed it by pretty much. Every sentence you write while being defensive could be used as a weapon against scum, instead of using it as a tool to escape your own lynch. You didn't really provide town with a better target after you were done with the initial defense, you let Xatalos do that job by making a good case against yomi (one of his real cases) which saved you.
willz22912 wrote: You're going to say this is one of the good reasons why I should be lynched? Because I haven't provided town with good enough information, and I act constantly defensive because I have to constantly defend myself? I'm sorry but it's pretty true, it's hard to put up good cases under pressure, I can quote a post by Acrofales mentioning this.
I'm actually saying this because you didn't have a whole lot of pressure on you on Day 2. Nobody ever voted for you that day, yet you pretty much only made some forgettable posts (I'm calling them that because I forgot about them; I had to read through you filter to find them). In hindsight after reading what you wrote there it makes quite some sense though, so I guess that's actually not too bad. That said, mafia are usually the ones that care most about making their posts forgettable because they don't want to be in the spotlight, but they also want material to point to when they get suspected, so your Day 2 posts still make sense from a mafia point of view (clearly not only from there, I'm just considering possibilities here and that's not one to be discounted.)
That's my advice for/case against willz. I haven't yet decided which of the two I should go with as I'm still very unsure of his alignment.
Stay tuned for the next post, where I discuss Xatalos!
On April 19 2012 02:31 KharadBanar wrote: Stay tuned for the next post, where I discuss Xatalos!
This is that post.
I will take a different approach from willz here, because I had a very good defense post from willz to go from. With Xatalos, I am going to try to make some comments based on his general posting style which have been made before but need to be reminded of, and again they are meant to be good advice if he is town, but something for the others to consider as to if you're actually scum. My official opinion: I haven't decided yet whether to go with Xatalos or willz here.
First off, some general remarks: One of the biggest problems I have with your posts is that some of them come about as giant walls of text. If you want people to trust you, they have to understand you first. If you want people to understand you, you have to make it easy for them. To make it easy for people to understand your posts, it would be advisable to post in a style people actually want to read. People want to read something with colour. People want to read something with weight. People want to read something with a pattern. People do not want a post which starts out decently only to devolve into a giant messy wall of text which their eyes can't follow and which is probably not all too well thought out in advance and has little to no interpunction and no paragraphs and just repeats itself over and over again and repeats itself over and over again and makes them want to stop reading at every corner because they are tired of making sense of your big sentence which grows ever longer and in the end has no real conclusion. You don't want to bury your important points inside a paragraph where no one will look twice because it's buried in between lines and lines of rambling which no one will ever get the gist of because you have preoccupied their concentration with making sure your sentence is actually grammatically correct and has all the right words in the right places to be actually still listening to what you are saying. Not all of your posts are like that. But if you really want to make something count, it will have to look more readable than for instance your defense against HiroPro. This has been alleviated somewhat in your recent postings, but I'm still writing about it here because I still think it is pretty damn important.
Now about the implications of this: As I have said before but not elaborated too much upon in my post about willz, scum actually wants us to not remember what they said in their posts. This gives them the opportunity to say what they want first without you noticing it, then either cite it to hold it against you later or completely forget about it themselves and not have to worry about it. It also makes the town think "Yes, yes, this player is actually contributing" when in actuality all of it had no real meaning*. What this says about Xatalos I'll leave as an exercise to the reader. (Hint: It doesn't automatically make him scum, which is why I still haven't decided yet.)
*INB4: If you're suddenly thinking "This man is a hypocrite! He said every post should carry meaning inside the game yet this has nothing to do with the game at all, it's just a posting style rant!", consider the following: Making yourself heard is an important subject in a Mafia game. If this advice helps you write more understandably in the future, more people will actually read what you have to say, and more people will actually understand it. Therefore if you take the time to have read and understood this, other people will take less time to read and understand your posts, and they can respond better to what you have to say. Reading this is not a waste of your time.
Thank you for your attention. Everyone, get out there and post, and do so in a readable fashion!
Oh sorry. I was so occupied with putting my word out there that I didn't catch your post
It's pretty good, both contentwise and stylewise, but the last argument didn't really convince me. funcmode was probably in crunch mode and didn't think much about the posts he commented about when he wrote that. To draw a possible mafia connection there seems really arbitrary to me.
I am going to wait to hear the other players' opinions until I make my final decision, since I a) don't want to influence the others too much while I'm not entirely sure what to do, and b) want to let their arguments influence my final decision, because it's final.
This may sound waffly and bandwagony, but there are reasons behind it.
OK look. So I went to bed yesterday thinking about how we, as a town, can decide whether to vote for willz or Xatalos. I slept, woke up today and went to the university. After a long day I come home and read through the thread and.... what? WHAT? WHY ON EARTH is someone fakeclaiming cop to paint me scum? Why on earth is someone fakeclaiming cop to paint ME scum, out of all people? Dittert is Dittert after all, but why ME and not someone more believable like imallinson? Or Xatalos?
On April 19 2012 14:15 Dittert wrote: Well, like the first night, I was convinced I had 2 of the 3 mafia figured out: Acro and Xat.
How could any self-respecting townie ever be convinced of "figuring Acrofales out"? This sounds like pretty bad invented reasoning to come up with some alleged "scum reads".
On April 19 2012 14:15 Dittert wrote: That left KharadBanar, vonKlaust, and iamallinson. To be honest, I wouldn't be 100% surprised if all three turned up as our mafia team. They haven't posted too much, but they also haven't really been accused on anything. Perhaps they've spent the whole game sitting back and allowing us townies to lynch each other. In the end, I just went on a hunch and investigated KharadBanar.
So of all the people to investigate (apart from Acrofales, who you were "convinced" he was scum), you picked the most townie looking to test if he's scum? Excuse me, but that sounds like a genuinely stupid move. It just does not make any sense. Coming from a generally underperforming player, your posts sound like a straight scum claim.
At least if you wanted to distract town from meaningful discussion, you managed it. I'll give you that.
On April 20 2012 03:51 willz22912 wrote: Please town, for the love of god ignore this bus, vote Xatalos, and if he flips Mafia, then the game goes on and we can easily verify my claims of the scum-team from the 100% confirmation we get from his flip. Especially KB, if you are town and Dittert is making his case up then you don't need to vote him this minute and can ignore him, choose between lynching myself or Dittert like the original D3 was going to be.
Lynching Dittert when he's potentially getting bussed by his teammates is not the best town play we can make right now, either you believe my reasoning and lynch Xatalos, or you should lynch me because you believe Dittert is making a last second play to save me. However, how is Dittert making this claim "saving me" when he's tunneled me all game and I have defended him as well, creating an obvious connection between us. He also does nothing to deter suspicion from me, according to Xatalos if Dittert flips Mafia I should be the next obvious lynch anyway, how does this make sense if we're both Mafia, this is the worst plan ever if he's trying to deter attention from me to him, if anything he is creating MORE suspicion upon me so I become easier to mis-lynch D4.
This actually seems like the sensible thing to do. The Xatalos scum bus reasoning sounds really smart, and I admit it's not very likely that you and Dittert would be scum together. Listening to Dittert at this point in time won't get town anywhere because if ANY of you votes for the wrong guy, mafia is all over him at the last second. Whatever happens, it is in your best interest to pretend the claim has never happened and not vote for either of us.
See it that way. If Dittert actually were the DT and I were actually scum you could win if you vote me and everybody else in town thinks that way. If not, then you just lost because scum is going to vote me.
The other way around: Dittert is lying and scum, and I'm town. You could now vote for Dittert and hope that the rest of town believes my story. Or we could just hunt some other scum. (Note that the votes already on Dittert are very likely to be mafia who want to trick town into believing they already have enough votes on him and it's not necessary to vote for someone else.)
EBWOP: Oops, forgot to change my vote in the heat of the argument, sorry This situation is truly nerveracking, especially if you are the accused one and have to find valid arguments to help yourself out...
@willz22912: I just noticed that this (everyone voting for either you or Xatalos) is equally as futile as everyone voting for me and Dittert, with one townie on the wrong side that could break the whole vote. But I'm more confident in your reasoning on Xatalos than I am with the assumption that everybody in town will correctly vote for Dittert, so I'm staying on my vote for now.
If I hear enough voices from people I believe are likely town then I could reconsider a mass switch to Dittert. Please make up your minds so we can handle this gracefully in the limited time we have left.
@imallinson: That's not as easy as you think. If we assume both Xatalos and yomi are scum bussing for Dittert, as it stands now they could switch onto me and then be the first to make 3 votes on me so I get lynched. Your play is not as safe for us as it might seem.
Xatalos, Willz's case may be based on WIFOM and connections, but I'm not voting you for some case he just now made and how you are bussing Dittert etc. I am voting you because I have had a long time to build an opinion of both you and willz believing there is one scum between the two of you, and you have in total acted more scummy than willz. Especially the behaviour of the two of you right now speaks volumes: willz is trying with me to solve the puzzle of how to get the right votes in the right places, and you are accusing me of being scum for it. Do you believe this makes you look less scummy to the rest of town?
It's NOT about just willz' WIFOM case against you now. It's about your behaviour all game long, pointing in all different directions with inconsistent logic while at the same time always tunneling the same people with your votes. willz' case just tops it off at this point, also he seems reasonable in his voting analysis while you don't, at least to me.
If you can change your posting style 100% while going from mafia to town, you can probably do it if you're going from mafia to mafia. It's exactly as hard as not changing your posting style while going from town to mafia.
I don't mean you're afraid to say your opinion, but afraid of being lynched. Yes I know a townie would also be afraid in that situation but I'd hope you'd think first.
The main reason why I don't think of willz as that likely scum anymore is that he actively helped me defend myself and get out of Dittert's fake accusation when he could have easily switched his vote over to me and more or less assured a scum victory if any townie had taken the bait and voted for me. No scum would have ever done that. Not even Dittert. They would have thrown their victory away.
On April 20 2012 06:32 Xatalos wrote: That logic is so horrible it hurts. I was the first to mention why Dittert's claim wasn't genuine, and I didn't definitely vote for you or even think about doing that. Willz not voting for you either makes me Mafia exactly how?
I have this to say about that:
On April 20 2012 04:14 willz22912 wrote: I am calling for all the real town to vote Xatalos instead now, including KB, to show that Dittert was being bussed by his teammates Xatalos and imallinson. The game is going to go on regardless if Dittert gets bussed by his teammates, the only information we will get is who gets shot N3, but gleaning information based on who Mafia shoot is completely WIFOM for town.
On April 20 2012 04:27 willz22912 wrote: @ KB if you agree with my reasoning, please change your vote off Dittert and give town a chance to lynch Xatalos instead.
He actively gave me a chance to prove that I was not the scum in that situation by being willing to actually scumhunt. That's what I was referring to.
So it appears the votes now stand 3-1-1-1 for you over Dittert, me and willz. If I voted for willz it would make the votes 2-2-1-1... and again give Mafia the chance to sway the vote in exactly the direction they want to. I'm sorry but if nobody else agrees with you I have to stay on you for the time being in order to avoid an unwinnable situation. The chance that you are scum is still much higher than scum not being able to get what they want in the 2-2-1-1 situation.
THAT SAID, does anyone i consider to be likely town agree with Xatalos? If so, we could make something happen together.
On April 20 2012 06:45 willz22912 wrote: @Xatalos, if you believe Dittert's DT claim to be real, why not vote KharadBanar since a DT check is also "100% confirmed Mafia" and Dittert also voted him as well, giving you +1 vote, making it more likely to save yourself?
Why vote me instead if you believe Dittert's claim (and do you think I'm also town considering Dittert is not willing to vote me anymore and he's a DT?)
He isn't considering Dittert's check to be real, he considers it to be very likely fake but you even more likely mafia. Even though I don't agree with him as much as he'd probably like, my opinion has since swung again in favour of him because you haven't been quite as active in saving me as I originally thought.
Okay funcmode. If you are ready voting for Dittert, and Xatalos is ready voting for Dittert, then I'm ready too because Dittert is still my #1 scum (I know the DT claim can't be true). It's pretty unlikely that vote doesn't go through then, yomi is already on it.
On April 20 2012 06:54 Xatalos wrote: If Dittert was lying, then Willz and Dittert are Mafia. If Dittert was telling the truth, then Willz and KharadBanar are Mafia. The only logical conclusion is to vote for Willz right now.
It's exactly the same situation for me right now. If you are lying, then Willz and Dittert are Mafia. If you are telling the truth, then you and Dittert are Mafia. The only logical conclusion is for me to vote for Dittert right now.
HOWEVER! Mafia is going to see this distribution of posts and laugh as loud as they can before they switch to the townie with the vote on him at the last minute. So the only conclusion is for everyone to make up their minds and put their votes on one player they really believe to be Mafia. I have an extremely hard choice between you and willz right now, therefore I'm asking if you are willing to switch to Dittert all together so we can avoid the unpleasant scene we would have otherwise.
If you switch your vote to me, the votes will probably remain stacked on you because I can't cast a useful vote on Dittert at that point, and if you are really town then scum will rub their hands about this and not even have to do anything to win. If you switch to Dittert, we at least still have a decent chance of getting out of here alive.
Don't say I have defended willz when in reality I haven't. I just said I saw more reason in his posts than in yours, and that conclusion isn't fucking hard to reach looking at your past few pages.
I of course also voted you over willz when it came to it, but how that makes me connected with willz in any way I still can't see. Hell, I was even one of the first to vote him when Acrofales brought out his very first good case on Day 1!
Thank you to all the players in that game for making it so amazing for scum
And huge thanks to GreYMisT for hosting this! Your Aperture Mafia game was the one that got me into playing Mafia here on TL in the first place, and I would like to continue to do so.
On April 20 2012 09:40 marvellosity wrote: I still have no idea how KB got away with what he did and how he posted last day there O.o
I had no idea either right after the fake DT claim, and the "post crazy shit mode" didn't exactly help
But one thing I realised was the following:
willz22912 was very very set on seeing Xatalos lynched that day.
I just had to vote for Xatalos and willz would see me as confirmed town; everybody else could see me as willz's scumbuddy all they wanted as long as Xatalos received 4 votes before me. I proceeded to go balls to the wall with this strategy, which descended into "post crazy shit mode" when Xatalos realised my willz defense was worth nothing, but I intuitively knew that willz himself was far too biased from me actually defending him to see that my play was essentially a huge chewbacca defense. Also note the frantic posts in the scum QT at the time ("yomiiiiiiiiiii vote xat as fast as you can plz" and that stuff") which show how much I was focused on just a voting race and keeping willz' vote where it was.
I could equally as well have gone with Xatalos and voted against willz and it would probably not have occurred to Xatalos that something fishy was afoot, but I was afraid that willz could probably make a bit too much sense with his defense and I decided for Xatalos.
I also plan to post a detailed story about this game from my point of view which you can show to your friends to convince them why mafia is such an epic game. Maybe the things I did will make more sense to you then.
On April 20 2012 17:21 Acrofales wrote: The happenings after the DT claim are really mindboggling. Sure, there are all kinds of accusations flying around, but you have a DT claim. The logic here is really clear: at this point in the game, the only people claiming DT would be, either the DT, or mafia. You decide which and lynch either his redchecked target, or him, himself. The next important thing that happens is this post by KB, in which his entire defense is an admission of guilt:
He LITERALLY says that Dittert's roleclaim makes no sense as a fake claim.
If you just speak loud enough, people will believe you.
EPT
![[image loading]](http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/random_number.png)
