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On April 18 2012 03:11 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On April 18 2012 02:23 imallinson wrote:On April 18 2012 01:57 Acrofales wrote:On April 18 2012 01:11 imallinson wrote:
My proposal for the scum team:
Scum #1: Xatalos
I have been very suspicious of Xatalos since fairly on Day 2. He has managed to confuse everyone throughout the entire game by posting way too much. I was behind lynching him Day 2 but he and Acrofales convinced me (and a lot of other people) to switch to Hiro. I think I let Acrofales townness play too much of a role in my decisions. He is still looking like the scummiest person here and I propose we lynch him tomorrow.
Scum #2: Acrofales
Given that I have a strong feeling that Xatalos is scum, I start to wonder why Acrofales went after Hiro. Either he is town and honestly thought Hiro was scum or he is scum and stepped in to save Xatalos (an OMGUS by proxy almost). I will admit Acrofales looks the most town at the moment and seems like a very good town player who made a mistake. However it is possible he is also good scum who has managed to make himself look town and sway the vote to his liking (I realise this is WIFOM but it is relevant to my next point). So why would Acrofales go and lose some of his position? The only reason to do that would be to save a teammate. It's risky but getting the mislynch means they are very close to victory. Obviously this argument depends a lot on Xatalos being scum so I don't think Acrofales is someone good to lynch Day 3. If Xatalos does flip scum though he will be my #1 target the next day.
Scum #3
Scum 3 I am a lot less sure of so I will go through all the possibilities.
Dittert:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales and Xatalos are pushing him to get vig shot tonight. I find this interesting in itself because if we do lynch scum tomorrow, having someone town get vig shot would be very beneficial for scum because it would still leave us having to get a correct lynch.
yomi:
This seems exceptionally unlikely at this point. There is no reason for scum to lynch on a fellow scum Day 1 when there are alternatives.
vonKlaust:
This probably makes the most sense to me. Apart from Xatalos making a bad case against him Day 1, which was never going anywhere, they have left vonKlaust alone, not implicating him in any way. I'm starting to find him very suspicious because he is flying well under everyone's radars. I'd say he is a good candidate for mafia #3
Funcmode:
It's hard to get a read on you because you haven't posted a lot (I know some of this isn't your fault but you didn't post much after you joined either). However I don't see anything that makes you look particularly scummy at the moment.
Willz:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales was the person who started getting the vote going on Willz
Kharad:
I still think you are probably town (you have moved to my #1 town spot now) but I am much more wary of that now due to me being sure Acrofales was town.
So my finished scum list, with shiny probabilities too (33% is a neutral read):
#1: Xatalos (90%)
#2: Acrofales (70% if Xatalos is scum) (33% if not)
#3: vonKlaust (60% if #1 & #2 are scum) (40% otherwise) Okay, I like that you're posting  If we forget about connections for a second, who would be your second-highest scum read. Because, apparently I am only scum if Xatalos flips red. If he flips green, then town is dead and I don't even get a chance. So, imagine Xatalos is green (despite thinking it's unlikely), who else might be scum at this point? At lylo we need to find 1 scum, not 3. That was one of the major things that I did wrong in thinking HiroPro was scum yesterday. My nightly reads will do the same: go back to basics and analyse players individually for scummy traits. No more connections, we worry about those AFTER we find the first scum. Ignoring any connections. I'd say #2 is Dittert and #3 is Willz pretty much for the same reasons you are suspicious of them. Although this hits the same problem as the connection stuff. If my #1 scum read isn't scum it's not going to matter who I think is #2 because we would already have lost. No. This is not the same. This is your reads RIGHT NOW. You are suspicious of Xatalos, Dittert and Willz. That is good info to have. At the moment we have to lynch 1 scum. If we do that, THEN we can look at his connections. If we lynch Xatalos and he flips scum, then my defense of him was my second giant error of the game. But we make that connection when it happens. Keep an open mind for the moment and don't get stuck in what-if scenarios. Analyse the past, not the future. I am interested in knowing why you're suspicious of Dittert. I said I draw a blank on Dittert. I think it's quite probable that he's scum. He has not contributed anything to the town, except a stubborn insistence that Willz and Yomi are scum, without actually trying to convince town. I made a mistake reading Hiro's empty filter and strange hops of reasoning as a scum filter and refuse to make that same mistake: I am thus thoroughly confused by Dittert. My case for vig shooting him is far more pragmatic than that. Although, at the moment I am thinking Willz is scum again and would be happy to vote alongside "crazy ol' Dittert". So. Why the read as Dittert being scum? While I'm trying to coax people out of silence. Dittert, you updated your case on Willz at the start of D2 and I have not much to comment on that, but what do you think of Yomi now? Still scum? Or is someone else Willz' scumbuddy?
Because he doesn't contribute much besides his constant insistence that Willz is scum. He started of being really meek and unsure of his ideas then Night 1 starts berating everyone for being idiots and did the same Night 2. This reeks of trying to make yourself seems pro town because you never voted for the townie that got lynched. His posting doesn't make much sense to me if he is town.
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On April 18 2012 03:29 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On April 18 2012 03:21 imallinson wrote:On April 18 2012 03:11 Acrofales wrote:On April 18 2012 02:23 imallinson wrote:On April 18 2012 01:57 Acrofales wrote:On April 18 2012 01:11 imallinson wrote:
My proposal for the scum team:
Scum #1: Xatalos
I have been very suspicious of Xatalos since fairly on Day 2. He has managed to confuse everyone throughout the entire game by posting way too much. I was behind lynching him Day 2 but he and Acrofales convinced me (and a lot of other people) to switch to Hiro. I think I let Acrofales townness play too much of a role in my decisions. He is still looking like the scummiest person here and I propose we lynch him tomorrow.
Scum #2: Acrofales
Given that I have a strong feeling that Xatalos is scum, I start to wonder why Acrofales went after Hiro. Either he is town and honestly thought Hiro was scum or he is scum and stepped in to save Xatalos (an OMGUS by proxy almost). I will admit Acrofales looks the most town at the moment and seems like a very good town player who made a mistake. However it is possible he is also good scum who has managed to make himself look town and sway the vote to his liking (I realise this is WIFOM but it is relevant to my next point). So why would Acrofales go and lose some of his position? The only reason to do that would be to save a teammate. It's risky but getting the mislynch means they are very close to victory. Obviously this argument depends a lot on Xatalos being scum so I don't think Acrofales is someone good to lynch Day 3. If Xatalos does flip scum though he will be my #1 target the next day.
Scum #3
Scum 3 I am a lot less sure of so I will go through all the possibilities.
Dittert:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales and Xatalos are pushing him to get vig shot tonight. I find this interesting in itself because if we do lynch scum tomorrow, having someone town get vig shot would be very beneficial for scum because it would still leave us having to get a correct lynch.
yomi:
This seems exceptionally unlikely at this point. There is no reason for scum to lynch on a fellow scum Day 1 when there are alternatives.
vonKlaust:
This probably makes the most sense to me. Apart from Xatalos making a bad case against him Day 1, which was never going anywhere, they have left vonKlaust alone, not implicating him in any way. I'm starting to find him very suspicious because he is flying well under everyone's radars. I'd say he is a good candidate for mafia #3
Funcmode:
It's hard to get a read on you because you haven't posted a lot (I know some of this isn't your fault but you didn't post much after you joined either). However I don't see anything that makes you look particularly scummy at the moment.
Willz:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales was the person who started getting the vote going on Willz
Kharad:
I still think you are probably town (you have moved to my #1 town spot now) but I am much more wary of that now due to me being sure Acrofales was town.
So my finished scum list, with shiny probabilities too (33% is a neutral read):
#1: Xatalos (90%)
#2: Acrofales (70% if Xatalos is scum) (33% if not)
#3: vonKlaust (60% if #1 & #2 are scum) (40% otherwise) Okay, I like that you're posting If we forget about connections for a second, who would be your second-highest scum read. Because, apparently I am only scum if Xatalos flips red. If he flips green, then town is dead and I don't even get a chance. So, imagine Xatalos is green (despite thinking it's unlikely), who else might be scum at this point? At lylo we need to find 1 scum, not 3. That was one of the major things that I did wrong in thinking HiroPro was scum yesterday. My nightly reads will do the same: go back to basics and analyse players individually for scummy traits. No more connections, we worry about those AFTER we find the first scum. Ignoring any connections. I'd say #2 is Dittert and #3 is Willz pretty much for the same reasons you are suspicious of them. Although this hits the same problem as the connection stuff. If my #1 scum read isn't scum it's not going to matter who I think is #2 because we would already have lost. No. This is not the same. This is your reads RIGHT NOW. You are suspicious of Xatalos, Dittert and Willz. That is good info to have. At the moment we have to lynch 1 scum. If we do that, THEN we can look at his connections. If we lynch Xatalos and he flips scum, then my defense of him was my second giant error of the game. But we make that connection when it happens. Keep an open mind for the moment and don't get stuck in what-if scenarios. Analyse the past, not the future. I am interested in knowing why you're suspicious of Dittert. I said I draw a blank on Dittert. I think it's quite probable that he's scum. He has not contributed anything to the town, except a stubborn insistence that Willz and Yomi are scum, without actually trying to convince town. I made a mistake reading Hiro's empty filter and strange hops of reasoning as a scum filter and refuse to make that same mistake: I am thus thoroughly confused by Dittert. My case for vig shooting him is far more pragmatic than that. Although, at the moment I am thinking Willz is scum again and would be happy to vote alongside "crazy ol' Dittert". So. Why the read as Dittert being scum? While I'm trying to coax people out of silence. Dittert, you updated your case on Willz at the start of D2 and I have not much to comment on that, but what do you think of Yomi now? Still scum? Or is someone else Willz' scumbuddy? Because he doesn't contribute much besides his constant insistence that Willz is scum. He started of being really meek and unsure of his ideas then Night 1 starts berating everyone for being idiots and did the same Night 2. This reeks of trying to make yourself seems pro town because you never voted for the townie that got lynched. His posting doesn't make much sense to me if he is town. Did HiroPro's posting make sense as a townie?
No, but we can't just dismiss everyone's posting as "well they might just be playing town badly" or we get absolutely nowhere.
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EBWOP: Which is why I'm not very sure of you being scum (it's very possible you just misread his bad town play as scummy and there was nothing malicious in it).
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On April 18 2012 03:57 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On April 18 2012 03:34 imallinson wrote:On April 18 2012 03:29 Acrofales wrote:On April 18 2012 03:21 imallinson wrote:On April 18 2012 03:11 Acrofales wrote:On April 18 2012 02:23 imallinson wrote:On April 18 2012 01:57 Acrofales wrote:On April 18 2012 01:11 imallinson wrote:
My proposal for the scum team:
Scum #1: Xatalos
I have been very suspicious of Xatalos since fairly on Day 2. He has managed to confuse everyone throughout the entire game by posting way too much. I was behind lynching him Day 2 but he and Acrofales convinced me (and a lot of other people) to switch to Hiro. I think I let Acrofales townness play too much of a role in my decisions. He is still looking like the scummiest person here and I propose we lynch him tomorrow.
Scum #2: Acrofales
Given that I have a strong feeling that Xatalos is scum, I start to wonder why Acrofales went after Hiro. Either he is town and honestly thought Hiro was scum or he is scum and stepped in to save Xatalos (an OMGUS by proxy almost). I will admit Acrofales looks the most town at the moment and seems like a very good town player who made a mistake. However it is possible he is also good scum who has managed to make himself look town and sway the vote to his liking (I realise this is WIFOM but it is relevant to my next point). So why would Acrofales go and lose some of his position? The only reason to do that would be to save a teammate. It's risky but getting the mislynch means they are very close to victory. Obviously this argument depends a lot on Xatalos being scum so I don't think Acrofales is someone good to lynch Day 3. If Xatalos does flip scum though he will be my #1 target the next day.
Scum #3
Scum 3 I am a lot less sure of so I will go through all the possibilities.
Dittert:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales and Xatalos are pushing him to get vig shot tonight. I find this interesting in itself because if we do lynch scum tomorrow, having someone town get vig shot would be very beneficial for scum because it would still leave us having to get a correct lynch.
yomi:
This seems exceptionally unlikely at this point. There is no reason for scum to lynch on a fellow scum Day 1 when there are alternatives.
vonKlaust:
This probably makes the most sense to me. Apart from Xatalos making a bad case against him Day 1, which was never going anywhere, they have left vonKlaust alone, not implicating him in any way. I'm starting to find him very suspicious because he is flying well under everyone's radars. I'd say he is a good candidate for mafia #3
Funcmode:
It's hard to get a read on you because you haven't posted a lot (I know some of this isn't your fault but you didn't post much after you joined either). However I don't see anything that makes you look particularly scummy at the moment.
Willz:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales was the person who started getting the vote going on Willz
Kharad:
I still think you are probably town (you have moved to my #1 town spot now) but I am much more wary of that now due to me being sure Acrofales was town.
So my finished scum list, with shiny probabilities too (33% is a neutral read):
#1: Xatalos (90%)
#2: Acrofales (70% if Xatalos is scum) (33% if not)
#3: vonKlaust (60% if #1 & #2 are scum) (40% otherwise) Okay, I like that you're posting If we forget about connections for a second, who would be your second-highest scum read. Because, apparently I am only scum if Xatalos flips red. If he flips green, then town is dead and I don't even get a chance. So, imagine Xatalos is green (despite thinking it's unlikely), who else might be scum at this point? At lylo we need to find 1 scum, not 3. That was one of the major things that I did wrong in thinking HiroPro was scum yesterday. My nightly reads will do the same: go back to basics and analyse players individually for scummy traits. No more connections, we worry about those AFTER we find the first scum. Ignoring any connections. I'd say #2 is Dittert and #3 is Willz pretty much for the same reasons you are suspicious of them. Although this hits the same problem as the connection stuff. If my #1 scum read isn't scum it's not going to matter who I think is #2 because we would already have lost. No. This is not the same. This is your reads RIGHT NOW. You are suspicious of Xatalos, Dittert and Willz. That is good info to have. At the moment we have to lynch 1 scum. If we do that, THEN we can look at his connections. If we lynch Xatalos and he flips scum, then my defense of him was my second giant error of the game. But we make that connection when it happens. Keep an open mind for the moment and don't get stuck in what-if scenarios. Analyse the past, not the future. I am interested in knowing why you're suspicious of Dittert. I said I draw a blank on Dittert. I think it's quite probable that he's scum. He has not contributed anything to the town, except a stubborn insistence that Willz and Yomi are scum, without actually trying to convince town. I made a mistake reading Hiro's empty filter and strange hops of reasoning as a scum filter and refuse to make that same mistake: I am thus thoroughly confused by Dittert. My case for vig shooting him is far more pragmatic than that. Although, at the moment I am thinking Willz is scum again and would be happy to vote alongside "crazy ol' Dittert". So. Why the read as Dittert being scum? While I'm trying to coax people out of silence. Dittert, you updated your case on Willz at the start of D2 and I have not much to comment on that, but what do you think of Yomi now? Still scum? Or is someone else Willz' scumbuddy? Because he doesn't contribute much besides his constant insistence that Willz is scum. He started of being really meek and unsure of his ideas then Night 1 starts berating everyone for being idiots and did the same Night 2. This reeks of trying to make yourself seems pro town because you never voted for the townie that got lynched. His posting doesn't make much sense to me if he is town. Did HiroPro's posting make sense as a townie? No, but we can't just dismiss everyone's posting as "well they might just be playing town badly" or we get absolutely nowhere. Thank you. However, starting D3 with everybody voting Dittert, because he is a non-contributing lurker is going to kill discussion just as surely as it did on D2. I am completely in favour of Dittert getting shot, because he really isn't contributing and I realise that I was wrong yesterday in calling for the vig to hold his shot if he wasn't sure. Regardless of whether you're sure, discussing a Dittert lynch will kill discussion and we have no real clue whether we're right or wrong. The problem at lylo is that we NEED to lynch scum. All we know about Dittert is that he WILL behave erratically. I do NOT want to lynch erratic behaviour, I want to lynch scum. If we have a vig shot, Dittert needs to be killed. This will also give a crapton of info on Willz' alignment, who is currently skyrocketing my scumometer. I trust this town to continue without me, but it must NOT discuss a Dittert lynch, as it is pointless. So yeah: vig, if you exist, I urge you to shoot Dittert, regardless of alliance. If the vig is Dittert himself: shoot your strongest scumread (hint, Willz  ) and CLAIM the shot!
Yeah I'm all for not discussing a Dittert lynch, it won't get us anywhere just like Day 2. It's why I was talking about Xatalos. I'm wondering why you think Willz is the more likely than Xatalos to be scum. I'm worried I'm tunnelling on Xatalos and would like to look at alternatives.
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@vonKlaust
Imallinson:
I'm fine with him being suspicious about Xatalos, but his case against Acro and later me doesn't make much sense to me. This is not a list of Imallinsons top scum reads. This is a list of Imallinsons top scum reads IF Xatalos flips red. It would be nice if he could also provide us with a list of his top scum reads as the game looks at the moment.
(I know he presented alternative percentages on me and Acro if Xatalos would flip green, but he also said that 33% is a null read and he put Acro on 33% and me on 40%, we would still be unlikely to be his mafia reads if Xatalos would flip green)
Acrofales already asked me to provide my top 3 minus the connection to Xatalos. It was
#1: Xatalos
#2: Dittert
#3: Willz
Although at this point I'd probably swap Dittert and Willz.
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I'm starting to be very convinced by the case against Willz. My main problem with his posting is that he only really helps town when his neck is on the line. When it looked like he was going to be lynched Day 1 there was a sudden surge in pro-town posting from him. After the pressure was off of him somewhat he went back into the shadows and didn't post much that wasn't agreeing with the general consensus at the time he avoids most of the Dittert discussion (possible link) and jumps on Xatalos when that case is brought up. Finally he jumps on Hiro once that had become the consensus. Now Day 3 when he is once again under fire he starts posting he starts posting again, more defending himself this time, I think because the situation seems less hopeless than Day 1. All of this gives an image of Willz as a person who wants to hide in the background and is only willing to put himself out there if he (or Dittert) is in danger. This strikes me as much more scummy than Xatalos' posting which has been a bit unfocussed and even spammy at times but he doesn't seem afraid to be in the spotlight even though it put him in danger on multiple occasions.
##Vote: Willz22912
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@Dittert
There's a few things I'm not understanding about your claim.
#1: Why check ArcticFox? At the end of Day 1 he seemed like one of the most town people. This could be an easy way of faking a claim, someone you know the alignment of and you didn't actually have to make a case on because they were already dead.
#2: Why check Kharad? If you had narrowed it down to me, Kharad and vonKlaust it would make more sense to go for me or maybe vonKlaus, Kharad seems much more town than either of us.
#3: "THE MAFIA DON'T NEED TO FAKE DT CLAIM TO WIN." This is just wrong. If it looked like one scum member was going to get lynched then fake claiming DT is an excellent move. If we have no DT then it's an easy way to lynch one of the best town players. If we do then you have a decent chance to convince the town to lynch their own DT. Seeing as Xatalos was suspicious of your claim right away I don't think he is your scum buddy. It fits nicely if Willz is however.
#4: This is what I think is the most damning evidence against your claim. Why if you knew Kharad was scum would you vote for Xatalos? This makes me think you decided to fake claim after you saw Willz in trouble. There isn't any other explanation for this.
I think this makes you look insanely scummy and it makes Willz look like your scum buddy. However you are the more obvious lynch at the moment.
##Unvote
##Vote: Dittert
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On April 19 2012 17:33 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2012 17:23 imallinson wrote:
@Dittert
There's a few things I'm not understanding about your claim.
#1: Why check ArcticFox? At the end of Day 1 he seemed like one of the most town people. This could be an easy way of faking a claim, someone you know the alignment of and you didn't actually have to make a case on because they were already dead.
#2: Why check Kharad? If you had narrowed it down to me, Kharad and vonKlaust it would make more sense to go for me or maybe vonKlaus, Kharad seems much more town than either of us.
#3: "THE MAFIA DON'T NEED TO FAKE DT CLAIM TO WIN." This is just wrong. If it looked like one scum member was going to get lynched then fake claiming DT is an excellent move. If we have no DT then it's an easy way to lynch one of the best town players. If we do then you have a decent chance to convince the town to lynch their own DT. Seeing as Xatalos was suspicious of your claim right away I don't think he is your scum buddy. It fits nicely if Willz is however.
#4: This is what I think is the most damning evidence against your claim. Why if you knew Kharad was scum would you vote for Xatalos? This makes me think you decided to fake claim after you saw Willz in trouble. There isn't any other explanation for this.
I think this makes you look insanely scummy and it makes Willz look like your scum buddy. However you are the more obvious lynch at the moment.
##Unvote
##Vote: Dittert You bring up a lot of good points, imallinson. I don't really think you're Mafia anymore... Why would you bus both of your teammates this hard in that case? Right now my conclusion is this: A) Willz is certainly Mafia B) Dittert is certainly Mafia C) Funcmode is probably Mafia However, I'd rather lynch Willz before Dittert. Dittert's last post is pretty much him claiming Mafia, but Willz is hugely more nefarious and might even convince town to lynch someone else in the endgame situation. Dittert, on the other hand, just keeps digging his own grave by fake claiming to protect Willz.
Well we probably need to come to a consensus on who to lynch and the terrible DT claim makes me more sure Dittert is scum than Willz. I'd say Dittert is 95% scum Willz 90%. So in my eyes we should go for Dittert. Also if we are sure Willz is scum it's easy enough to ignore his posts.
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On April 20 2012 02:17 Dittert wrote:
All right mafia team (I'm talking to you, KB, Xat and imallinson). Answer me this:
If I'm mafia and trying to save Willz, why wouldn't I just step up and post a better case against Xatalos? Like I said before, with 2 choices on the block, the only reason for me to make this claim is if Willz and Xat are both mafia. Given Xat's reaction to my claim, I think that's highly unlikely.
Also, that makes 3 votes on me now. Everyone else realize that if you vote for me before we have 4 votes on KB, we lose, as I'll be the first one to reach 4 in the event of a 4-4 tie.
Because if you can convince us to lynch Kharad instead of Willz, then you are 4-3 going into the night. You have basically won at that point. It doesn't matter if everyone knows you fake claimed at that point because the game would already be done. Fake claiming gives you the most solid case you could possibly have.
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@Willz
The problem I'm having with voting for Xatalos is that Dittert is my # 1 scum read due to what I think is a fake DT claim. You are my # 2 and Xatalos is # 3. While I agree that info tomorrow would be nice, actually getting there is better.
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I guess it's down to who hits 4 votes first. Seeing as the Dittert thing has lost all steam, I'm going to trust you because your judgement seems sound.
##Unvote
##Vote: Xatalos
Just some forwarning. I'm not going to be around if you decide to change. I've taken some strong painkillers and am now going to pass out. Sorry if this post is a bit short and incoherent.
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GG everyone. I think a lot of us winning came down to BroodKing saving yomi's ass and then in fighting between townies.
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EPT
