|
I can see the validity of your BroodKing case now willz, and I'm seriously considering switching my vote if we get enough backing. Consider the following: If willz and yomi are both town (granted, yomi is a really noob townie then, but still), BroodKing can just bandwagon on whomever he sees the most town hate at the moment. Even if willz is town and yomi is scum, a scum BroodKing can just go for the "easy" town cred in that case, saying he did vote on the right player when yomi flips red.
Can we please switch to BroodKing?
|
Since there seem to be so many voices that agree with me I will take the first step towards a BroodKing lynch, and
##Unvote ##Vote: BroodKingEXE
|
EBWOP: ninja'd, it's not the first step but still
|
3 votes in 4 minutes. This is the fastest bandwagon I've ever seen, but it at least seems legit.
|
I agree. If there's a vigilante out there listening, shoot into yomi. I looked into the OP if scum can have medic powers and it seems they can't, they just have a Goon, a Roleblocker and a Framer. So go right ahead that night
|
On April 14 2012 07:07 imallinson wrote:I'm guessing he did. It will be a nice suprise for him when he gets back. He is still alive and most likely confirmed town a huge townread. Fixed
I seriously can't stand that people are thinking of other people as confirmed, especially after I spectated TL Mafia LI and the events therein. That game hat the most epic bus of all time between VisceraEyes and Toadesstern, and EVERYBODY thought Toadesstern would be confirmed town after VE flipped. (Spoiler alert: Toad was scum.)
So please don't consider someone confirmed town if they haven't flipped yet. Ever. Please.
|
vonKlaust: A bunch of people changed onto the BroodWagon from having previously voted on yomi, so their votes are missing from him now. Take that into consideration.
|
|
The even more interesting question about that is: How? How did BroodKingEXE think he would contribute to the town if he voted someone he thought to be less scummy? How?
I don't even.
|
Does trumpetarn get modkilled or replaced?
|
Also with that, I think I'm going to part from the thread as well for the (EU) night. Good night to all the people in europe, and good evening to the americans! I'm out.
|
On April 14 2012 20:26 Xatalos wrote: I haven't said I have 100% confidence in my cases. Indeed I have said things like "ArcticFox is 70-80%" Mafia or "yomi is 90% Mafia". That might seem like over-confidence or exaggeration, but I don't mean the percentages as a scale from zero to 100%: if I say someone is 50% Mafia, I have a neutral read on him, and 50-100% Mafia means likely Mafia. So with yomi being 90% Mafia I mean that from a scale of 1 to 5, his Mafia rating would be 4. How about you express the percentage as a probability of someone being Mafia? So everyone starts at 25% (3/12) and goes up or down with town reads or scum reads that you have on him; the sum of all percentages should be 300% since there's three scum members in the game right now. That way it's pretty easy to decide which lynch candidates you're comfortable with, namely everyone over 50% chance of being Mafia which I agree yomi looks to be right now. willz I have pegged at about 45%, but I would not be comfortable lynching him right now.
I think the night is not the time to discuss one's reads in depth though, because better cases and discussion can be made when we know the results of the night actions and who flipped what. The only persons who really need to consider whom they think to be most likely Mafia/most likely to be shot by mafia should be the blue roles, because they need to decide whom they target with their actions. However, in my opinion they should do so for themselves so that scum can't know who's going to be protected/shot/blocked etc. That being said, if a vigilante is in this game I would like him to announce his action at the end of the night/one minute before the deadline, when Mafia can't react to his shot anymore. With this, I end my night rant and won't be very active in discussion until we have good information about the results of the night actions.
|
Wait, how fast is this Dittert bandwagon? This reminds me suspiciously of the BroodWagon.
On the other hand, there have been substantial accusations against Dittert already that night, so I might as well roll with it for the time being, since I don't see anything obviously wrong with them.
##Vote: Dittert
I'm going to be off for the (RL/Europe) night and reflecting on the situation. Tomorrow I'll post my reads in depth, and possibly revote if I find someone to be more scummy than Dittert. See you in about 10 hours!
|
KharadBanar's Comprehensive Scum Probability List™ Okay, I promised you a comprehensive post of reads at Daybreak so here are my completely reworked thoughts of the current situation. I have applied the logic I proposed to Xatalos earlier and made them percentage based on what probability I think they have to be scum right now. The percentages add up to (roughly) 300%, for the three scum members currently in the game. We have 10 players left in total (9 if you don't count me, whom I know is town), so a null read means 3/9 = 33% scum probability. Also, a fair warning: Clicking all the links to other posts in this monster probably leads to you rereading half the thread, exactly as I did while writing this.
ArcticFox - 0% BroodKingEXE - 0% These two are included for the sake of completeness - we know they are confirmed town because they flipped.
KharadBanar - 0% Nothing huge to say here either. Note these probabilities are based upon what I can see in the game, therefore I have the 0% by my name. Every other town player sees some nonzero percentage for me and 0% for himself, but I obviously can't reflect the views of everyone in this chart since I don't know your opinions as well as my own.
Acrofales - <5% + Show Spoiler [Filter Analysis] +Opens by suspecting me, I defend myself well enough and he proceeds to drop the case and contributes more to the discussion. He goes around ##FoSing Dittert and yomi, never forgetting to back his accusations up with quotes and arguments. Later, we get a nice semi-case against HiroPro, but it gets not much notice in comparison to his case against willz22912 a bit later which is actually strong enough to convince other people to join him. He sadly isn't around for the conclusion of Day 1, but more than makes up for it during the Night, where he engages in productive discussion around blues and night shots. The night is rounded off by him posting his reads in a fashion not quite unlike this post. Has been one of the most contributing posters so far. He doesn't shit up the thread and always has something new to say to the discussion. If scum were to try to look town, they most likely would at least try to repost old arguments/opinions in a new form, which I honestly can't say Acrofales did.
vonKlaust - 10% + Show Spoiler [Filter Analysis] +Early on, we have a case made by ArcticFox which points out a "filter full of useless junk" from him. His defense is reasonable, and since this was in the early phase of Day 1 where nobody really had a grip on the other players, I don't think it is of much importance now. Later, he points out some fallacies in Xatalos' thoughts about imallinson which we could see as pretty normal if that was now, but he was pretty much the first person to do so - this receives townie points because Mafia would probably just let Xatalos spout random opinions and leave him alone because it's going to confuse the town. About halfway through Day 1, he is asked to post some reads and responds by giving willz22912 as his top town read and saying he's suspicious of HiroPro. He then proceeds to read willz's filter and gets a bit suspicious. This is also a townslip in my mind, because it's more likely for mafia to be set in their ways about a player without needing to read their filter first, having the knowledge of their alignment given beforehand. (It's not impossible for scum to be a little waffly, though) Next thing that happens is that Xatalos actually full-on accuses vonKlaust of being "indecisive and unproductive", to which vonKlaust retorts pointing out Xatalos' confirmation bias. This evolves into a full-on argumentative discussion with HiroPro where vonKlaust stayed calm and used logic. The next (RL) day, Acrofales has already posted his case on willz, to which vonKlaust responds by not mindlessly bandwagoning but adding his own thought on the matter. This is also something pretty town to do in my mind. During the slight chaos that ensued with the voting for willz, yomi and BroodKingExe, he did what the "normal" player in this game did and jumped from willz to yomi to BroodKingEXE. Null to me. Night 1, vonKlaust voices his thoughts on the Dittert vs willz situation (pointing out a willz scumslip, albeit with slight confirmation bias) as well as asking Xatalos to be less aggressive. Conclusion: most likely townie, but could do with slightly less EBWOWOBOB as he calls it (EBWOP) and maybe less one-liners. But then again, my filter is also full of those, so I shouldn't be hyprocritical.
imallinson - 20% + Show Spoiler [Filter Analysis] +Begins the game not doing very much. He agrees with Xatalos' case on ArcticFox and adds a bit to it, then supports Acrofales' slight pressure against me, then talks a little more about ArcticFox. This seems like a slight case of tunneling, but nothing too major especially seeing as it came in the first half of Day 1 when we had little filter material to go by. He brings up lurker discussion, then brings up Xatalos' aggressiveness as a town trait which I don't agree with, but at least I see how somebody could think so. After ArcticFox managed to defend himself quite well, imallinson proceeds to pressure against trumpetarn to get answers out of him (spoiler alert: It isn't very successful. trumpetarn manages to make exactly one post in response to it. During the second half of Day 1, Xatalos accuses him in typical Xatalos fashion, then imallinson puts up an okay-ish defense, nothing much comes out of that case. He is also involved in the mislynch of BroodKingEXE, but I again don't think that says much of anything. At Night, he gets a little more concrete and posts his reads as well as a nice case against Dittert ( another one, but based on the new evidence Dittert has posted at the beginning of the night, it's pretty good to have). Day 2, he runs with that and votes for Dittert. If we hadn't got enough scumreads already, it would be easy for me to tunnel on you and make a case out of the amount of waffling in your filter like Xatalos usually does, but there are so many people who are more likely scum than you that you don't end up as more than a null read to me.
HiroPro - 25% + Show Spoiler [Filter Analysis] +His first post is a response to my weak pressure voting at the start. You can get a sense of how fail that pressure vote was when you consider that the next posts have no substance whatsoever and Hiro goes back to lurking again for three hours. After that, he actually posts a case and votes against Xatalos on the basis of him being too aggressive; he later calls Dittert a newb townie rather than mafia here and defends himself against BroodKingEXE who accused him of bandwagoning onto Xatalos. After Xatalos' vonKlaust case, Hiro agrees with him and joins his vonKlaust vote. He proceeds to have a little argument with vonKlaust, then unvotes him because vonKlaust did defend himself reasonably. Ending the day, HiroPro arrives just in time to jump on the tail end of the BroodWagon, however not without giving his own opinion on the subject which is more than I expected from a typical lurker at that point. Today, he posted a case on Xatalos which, though I don't necessarily agree with a high probability of Xatalos being mafia, presents a reasonable and thought out line of reasoning for a scum Xatalos. He doesn't always post, but when he does, it's generally thought out and agreeable. I don't know if that makes him The Most Interesting Poster In The World, but it certainly doesn't make him scum per se. I actually begin to see a scum consistency after reading his last post and looking at Xatalos' filter. He is a null read in my book, and because we have probable mafia targets aplenty in our current situation, my Null Read Scum Probability Level has dropped from 33% (3/9) to about 25%.
Funcmode/trumpetarn - 25% + Show Spoiler [Filter Analysis] + A big question mark in my book. That's it, I'm done and I'm giving him a null read.
willz22912 - 40% + Show Spoiler [Filter Analysis] +The first real contribution is him pointing out a bad case by Xatalos on ArcticFox, which is entirely justifiable. Later, Dittert makes his first case on him and he explains himself, slightly OMGUSsing Dittert in the process. His first real read is a scum read on imallinson, at the same time stating he thinks Dittert to be a newb town instead of scum. Again fully understandable at that point in the game. Soon, a bit of an OMGUS war starts between Dittert and willz and other people are lead to the belief that willz is scum, most importantly because of a really good case by Acrofales. He manages to defend himself a bit, then posts a case against BroodKingEXE which I proceed to inspect closely and see some holes in it. After that, he defends himself well enough that I retract my vote against him. Shortly after that, he goes really emo on himself, only to let the others convince him of going for yomi shortly thereafter. This is the last we hear of him Day 1, he was not a participant in the BroodWagon. At Night, there is a useful read post from him as well as some defense against a case by vonKlaust, and some more defense against further inquisition by Xatalos. willz has probably had to defend himself the most of all the players in this game, and he always has some explanation for his actions. Despite this, these explanations are far from the only ones for his behaviour. He makes slip-ups often enough to at least reasonably assume that he is indeed a Mafia member who is just really good at finding townie motivations for his actions. This is however no strong accusation, it is still more likely he is town in my eyes.
Xatalos - 40% + Show Spoiler [Filter Analysis] +I apologise for this analysis being a bit half assed, but Xatalos has posted the most volume out of any of us. Holy shit, I actually made a full play-by-play of Xatalos' posts and lived through it! Anyway, here we go: His doesn't even mess around with his first post, quickly putting up a case against ArcticFox. About twenty minutes later, he gets even more aggressive and puts up two other suspicions - yomi and imallinson. A little later, the FoS goes to me for my failed pressure vote on HiroPro. I defend myself a bit pointing out his aggressiveness in making suspicions, and he proceeds to call this pointing out of aggressiveness a "case", responding to it with a bit of a strawman argument. He FoSes HiroPro for suspecting him (again pointing out his aggressiveness), goes on defending his aggressive playstyle and gets his ArcticFox case picked apart by Acrofales. A little later, he suddenly gets suspicious of vonKlaust whom I had a townie feeling about even at that point. vonKlaust defends himself and Xatalos steps off the case, expressing his suspicion of imallinson again. imallinson responds, and Xatalos respects that. His next suspicion arises when Acrofales posts his willz case: Xatalos runs with it, adding his thoughts to the case. After yomi's first large case against Dittert, he promptly votes for yomi, giving three pretty good reasons for it. In fact, this case was so good that he convinced half the town to vote with him before people stormed off to BroodKingEXE for his " scumslip". Also one of the persons to hop on the BroodWagon. At Night, Xatalos is very vocal in directing blue roles while simultaneously softclaiming vanilla townie (he asks the Jailer to act on him that night.) This is a slightly suspicious action because if he is scum, he can draw the Jailer onto him and then have another scum member perform the night action, making it look like he is confirmed town when actually he isn't. Of course the play also makes much sense from a Vanilla Townie perspective, but it's slightly wasting the Jailer action for that night so I wouldn't do it in his position as a VT. He gets called out by yomi for suspecting many people and writes a reasonable reply. He then continues to post walls of text during the night, writing out in detail his thoughts about different aspects of the game. Later, there's another case on yomi. This leads to another vote on yomi as Day 2 begins. After an accusation from HiroPro, he posts a rather wordy defense, reflecting reasonably about his previous plays and consolidating his vote on Dittert. In Xatalos, I see a player who gets suspicious of other people pretty fast, but that is not necessarily a bad attidude for a town player to have. The problem he has is tunnelvisioning on the bad aspects of other players, im some cases not seeing a town motivation for certain actions when there is one. He has addressed this and is aware of it, but as long as he doesn't act on it and stops actually tunneling, I'll be suspicious of him. Be aware that much of his play makes equally as much sense from a scum perspective, assuming a somewhat leading position in the town and confusing people by putting out suspicions on town players.
yomi - 60% + Show Spoiler [Filter Analysis] +His first real contribution comes in at a point where most people already have posted their first reads. It's for Dittert and has no reasoning behind it, which is instant suspicion in my eyes. Later, he accuses people of pointless discussion, having contributed next to nothing himself. His first case (against Dittert) comes at a time where Day 1 is already on the way to its conclusion and it's not that well thought out, but at least there's a [newb] townie explanation for it: He and Dittert have been fighting the whole day over little things, so it's understandable for yomi to get emotional and tunnel a bit. After receiving quite a bit of flak from Xatalos, he goes against him as well. Shit hits the fan after some time, with Xatalos convincing more and more people that yomi is actually mafia. In a desperate maneuver, yomi votes for his greatest town tell, willz to save himself from getting lynched that day. This action does not save him, however something else does: The BroodWagon comes along and yomi is the first to vote for BroodKingEXE. After BroodKingEXE flips, Xatalos suspects yomi once more, yomi retorts by pointing out his tunneling. Xatalos has spent the past hours only with speaking against yomi and BroodKingEXE at this point (and saving willz to lynch yomi). He then accuses Xatalos of suspecting too many different targets, something that's also very true. This is continued with two lengthy defense posts on Xatalos which I don't see too much wrong with at this point. After that, he declares the Xatalos situation done with and goes back to accusing Dittert. We are now getting to the scummy regions of my read scale: In the beginning, I thought yomi was a really easy mafia read with the amount of accusations he put out without really backing them up. His night defense against Xatalos has made me slightly more unsure of that, especially when combined with Hiro's case on Xatalos. I strongly believe there is a scum somewhere in that pairing, but I'm not exactly sure which of them. I'm still leaning on yomi though.
Dittert - 75% + Show Spoiler [Filter Analysis] +At first Dittert just seemed newb townie with his random lynch proposal which quickly got torn apart. The first [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14319138]case he made was against willz, who was something of an easy target at the time with his opinions on policies. I don't value policy opinions that much when I'm thinking about possible scum reads, because a "wrong" opinion can easily mean that someone is town but simply hasn't thought about things that much. As soon as yomi makes himself suspicious later in the day, he makes a [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14323933]case[/url] against him, which I probably would have made too if I were scum, considering how easy it is to get town cred with a bus on a buddy who's looking not to live very long at that point. If Dittert is scum and yomi is town, it also makes sense because scum can force a situation similar to the BroodWagon at this point. Then there is a [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14324538]case[/url] on willz where he says "I will engage you because I want you to slip up some more as mafia". You can also do this on a townie to force him to say some things he will later regret, since you can easily quote them out of context. The case itself is not that bad, but it's not the most convincing of cases either. Later in the day, he [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14332256]votes[/url] for willz on the basis of his case. He does not switch to the BroodWagon later that day. However, the most damning post in my mind is the [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14338722]one[/url] he made after the BroodKingEXE lynch: It's full of OMGUS against practically the whole town for engaging in his lynch, when a town Dittert probably would have done the same had he been at home during the time where BroodKingEXE made his slipup. As of late, he seems to have followed willz from the last day in [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14348189]going all emo on himself[/url]. Since Dittert made the last night's post, he really slipped from newb town to full-on scum in my mind. There is no way I'm going to justify not contributing to the discussion and accusing the whole town of bad play. He is my number one lynch target for today and I'm glad to see that the current state of discussion seems to agree with me. ##Vote: Dittert
FINISHING THOUGHTS One thing I want to mention that I haven't got the possibility to in my filter analysis is the fact that now ArcticFox and BroodKingEXE are confirmed town, we probably should look through what they had to say about the game and take it into consideration, because with their opinions we have no chance of getting biased by mafia wanting to fool us. Especially ArcticFox's filter looks like a good place to start for me. I will not do this now however, since I have spent the last six hours looking through filters and I really need a break right now. I hope this post by me will get discussion going a bit since I have invested so much time in it now. Enjoy!
Funcmode, welcome to our thread. I hope you can use this post as a good recap of what happened so far if you haven't kept up with it.
|
EBWOP: The formatting broke on my Dittert Filter Analysis part. It should read as follows: + Show Spoiler [Filter Analysis] +At first Dittert just seemed newb townie with his random lynch proposal which quickly got torn apart. The first case he made was against willz, who was something of an easy target at the time with his opinions on policies. I don't value policy opinions that much when I'm thinking about possible scum reads, because a "wrong" opinion can easily mean that someone is town but simply hasn't thought about things that much. As soon as yomi makes himself suspicious later in the day, he makes a case against him, which I probably would have made too if I were scum, considering how easy it is to get town cred with a bus on a buddy who's looking not to live very long at that point. If Dittert is scum and yomi is town, it also makes sense because scum can force a situation similar to the BroodWagon at this point. Then there is a case on willz where he says "I will engage you because I want you to slip up some more as mafia". You can also do this on a townie to force him to say some things he will later regret, since you can easily quote them out of context. The case itself is not that bad, but it's not the most convincing of cases either. Later in the day, he votes for willz on the basis of his case. He does not switch to the BroodWagon later that day. However, the most damning post in my mind is the one he made after the BroodKingEXE lynch: It's full of OMGUS against practically the whole town for engaging in his lynch, when a town Dittert probably would have done the same had he been at home during the time where BroodKingEXE made his slipup. As of late, he seems to have followed willz from the last day in going all emo on himself.
|
On April 16 2012 01:42 Acrofales wrote: This means: if you are town, step up your game. Be active today. We have 3 scum left and I really want N2 to start with only 2 scum left. At the moment, we are lynching into Dittert, Yomi, Xatalos, Willz and imallison, which is just too many people. I actually think Dittert's final post was quite townie. It reminded me quite a bit of bluelightz (in any game he plays town): not contributing, but angry when everybody else screws it up. My question is: does the anger and frustration in his post feel genuine to you?
I am inclined to think it's genuine and that, counterintuitively lowers the chance of him being scum.
What he HAS managed to do is kill all D2 discussion. Lets discuss our other targets. OK, I'll start: If we want to put two or three scum into the five of Dittert, yomi, Xatalos, willz22912 and imallinson, we have to consider some interactions between them.
yomi has warred on Day 1 with Dittert, Xatalos and willz pretty hard, and during the night he has argued quite a bit with Xatalos about his aggressive posting style. This means that Dittert/yomi, Xatalos/yomi and willz/yomi are less likely to be scum together; if they are, yomi is putting on a pretty nice bus.
Dittert/willz is an even less likely scum pair, because they went at each other when scum would really have had no reason for it.
I didn't consider imallinson to be that scummy of a player, but looking at his filter again I see where you're coming from. I wouldn't however be very confident lynching him.
This means I would try to fit two scum into the four of Dittert, yomi, Xatalos and willz, and because of their interactions with one another I would lean on Xatalos and one of willz and Dittert. This is however under the assumption that there wasn't a mafia bus on Day 1. If we include that possibility, we have the following:
Dittert/willz is a really really unlikely bus pair like I described above. Dittert/yomi is only slightly more likely, because I feel like they're pretty new players even if they're scum and I don't think really new players would have the balls to bus that hard. yomi/willz is still an unlikely bus, seeing as each of them voted for each other to save himself, but it's at least thinkable for me. yomi/Xatalos is a pair which I wouldn't describe as that unlikely, because if Xatalos is scum, the easy way for him to get some credibility is to accuse his really scummily behaving team member. I have the feeling a scum bus could naturally evolve from that.
That means placing 2 scum in the four players of Dittert, Xatalos, willz and yomi means that Xatalos is pretty likely to be scum if we accept the assumption that there are 2 scum in there in the first place.
Conclusion:
##FoS: Xatalos
I won't step off my Dittert vote just yet, because I still don't feel his vote from the beginning of Day 2 redeems himself to be town.
|
On April 16 2012 02:24 willz22912 wrote: @KB, I disagree that I "warred" with Yomi. If look through my filter, I consistently said that I thought he was also newb town and that he was tunneling Dittert for the same reason Dittert was tunneling me. Oh sorry. I didn't research that as much as I probably should have, my head is still bursting from the filter analyses earlier, and my memory of Xatalos saying you flipping town would paint yomi more scummy (he did once) came together in my head in the wrong way.
So, this just made you being scum together with yomi a bit more likely (you still voted for one another but still). Do you have something to say to that?
|
On April 16 2012 02:41 willz22912 wrote: I'm not going to really defend myself from your opinion, considering I really can't in the first place. Yomi and I voting each other to save ourselves doesn't prove alignment unless one of us actually flips, there are reasonable explanations for us doing that as either both town, 1 mafia/1town, or both mafia. Think whatever you want.
This wasn't meant as a hard accusation. It was rather a continuation of the argument I made one post earlier, and I mentioned that for completeness. It's my read going from ~null to scum-ish, not from scum-ish to a "lynch please".
My comfortableness with lynches is now as follows:
1. Dittert 2. Xatalos 3. yomi 4. willz
I will still accept everyone's arguments to convince me why his specific lynch choice would be a better one, as long as I find them valid.
|
Oh hello funcmode. Welcome to the chaotic mess that is our thread. If you hadn't read it before and want to get some directions, you may want to read my and Acrofales' analysis posts. In mine, there's like reads to half the thread so you can click yourself around and see roughly what happened when.
I understand this is a tall order for someone who's not caught up at all, but I hope you can overcome that daunting task and actually contribute to the game :D
|
OH MY GOD IT WAS A CONSPIRACY ALL ALONG Or maybe not, but it's certainly a good story.
|
|
|
|