EPTSurprisingly Normal Mini Mafia IX
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
| ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
I have to head to work in a few minutes, but I wanted to post my initial thoughts about the opening of the game: GMarshal stated that mafia has won the last several newbie games. I looked into the 3 on the first page of mafia to look at the basics on opening strategy. Two of the games had a no lynch night 1. I would suggest we lynch, since clearly a no lynch doesn’t work out well... Additionally, I would suggest we open with a lurker lynch strategy. Stating our willingness to lynch a lurker should force activity. If push comes to shove, we must follow through, but hopefully it will force no lurkers. I know mafia tips suggest policy lynches are bad, but I think it's hard to get the ball rolling in newbie games. Finally, I read that even mislynching a townie can be beneficial. It shows who started the accusation, who jumped on the bandwagon and when, who changed their votes and when and why, etc. This reenforces my idea of a lynch on day1. I will probably post again, at work if possible, after reading the few posts and looking into the previous newbie game openings some more. | ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
It took like 2 minutes to read the 8 posts so far  I've been reading FAQs and strategy and whatnot (I missed getting last game by a bit :/) but still had to look up OMGUS. So here is a webpage I found useful: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Main_Page I would still like to go back and read the opening day of some of the newbie games. I will do this regardless, but I think it would be beneficial for those that played in those newbie games to go back, reread, and offer analysis of those games as well (or even if you didn't play like me!) My point is we can't analyze players who haven't played any games very accurately, but we can analyze strategy of past newbie games. | ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
Posts that say nothing "HI GUYS" are equal to not posting in my book. As are posts simply agreeing with another post. Try and post some original thought, regardless of how weak it is. I've made a spreadsheet with posts and ranked posts according to a day1-content scale I made. These are the three lowest people: 1)sc2system 2)Ninja4ever 3)Froggynoddy You all have posts, but not enough substance! ULTIMATUM: Post something of value within 8 hours or you are getting my vote! | ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
sc2system Croatia Ninja4ever. Frace Froggynoddy UK I've included Countries since I see they are all euro, but 8 hours still ought to be enough. Ultimatum stands! | ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
On March 23 2012 06:22 Nova_Terra wrote: michaelthe could you make that 12 hours for them? some of them might live in europe and they have my sympathy. Also would everyone be okay with a 6 hour soft deadline? not much of an ultimatum if I change it 5 minutes later! You're Euro.. what time is it there? | ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
On March 23 2012 06:54 Gossemerr wrote: How in the world is Fenix not number one on this list? Actually, completely by accident. He should be below sc2system and ninja, but above froggy. I was tracking posts by quality and page by assigning a value to each post from 0 (greeting, basic chatter), 1 (very basic, but maybe an opinion), 2 (basic thoughts), or 3 (solid attempt at analysis for day1). Best I could do for day1... I suspect filters and exact content will matter more on day 2 or 3+ The scores are as follows: sc2system: 0,0 (a few posts on day1 I lumpped I think) Ninja: 0,0 Froggy: 0,1,1 And, as you said and I missed: Fenix: 1,1 (Argentina) So I will add him to the list, I guess in fairness I will give him 8 hours from this post, so an extra 40 minutes or whatever Revised list: 1. Sc2system 2. Ninja 3. Rise of Fenix 4. Froggy | ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
On March 23 2012 07:27 Rise Of Fenix wrote: What I said was not that I wouldnt post until the End, I meant i wouldnt vote until the end. Could you mind explaining why you would want to do this? votes and when someone votes can be very informative. | ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
On March 23 2012 07:33 michaelthe wrote: Could you mind explaining why you would want to do this? votes and when someone votes can be very informative. ebwop: derp. Would you mind... Could you... either of those, but not both. Sorry for my bad englirsh, American, but public schools.... Still though, Mind explaining what advantage you see in waiting until the last minute to place your vote? | ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
On March 23 2012 07:39 Rise Of Fenix wrote: Trust me, my vote would be at you, but I will give everyone the benefit of the doubt. There is no unlynch in this game right? All lynch votes are final. You can ##unvote, as seen here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=317174¤tpage=2#22 | ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
On March 23 2012 14:21 Rise Of Fenix wrote: My points: I dont think I was thinking straight, and reading over my posts I have really been really playing terribly. Im sorry. However, I think it is time for a little bit of analysis. As I was suspicious of Michaelthe earlier, and then was backed up by froggy. Michael the never defended himself. I think that this is reason enough to lynch him, but until he defends himself I wont. I couldn't help but laugh a bit, one of the main criticisms of your play is that when you wanted to accuse me then found out you could vote and change it off you still didnt.... You still arent!Anyways, I was going to post before I went to bed on the issues of the past few hours: On Fenix: The issue is whether he was legitimately confused or had some sort of contradiction. One of the things that caught my eye when Mementoss lined up Fenix's posts where these two lines: On March 23 2012 05:24 Rise Of Fenix wrote: Day one lynching is always a solid plan to move foreward, but no real tells are showing thus far. I will likely post my thoughts about 1 hour before the deadline. But not lynching anyone only benefits the scum. On March 23 2012 07:27 Rise Of Fenix wrote: What I said was not that I wouldnt post until the End, I meant i wouldnt vote until the end. . Someone pointed out that voting last minute appears scummy, but then he insists he meant vote and not post thoughts. The idea of him voting late became somewhat reasonable when we found out he didn't know you could change your vote, but the idea that he initially posted thoughts when he meant votes is still odd. Even with English as a second language, thoughts and votes are not the same. The other analysis of Fenix was based on a few other minor contradictions such as accusing without voting, saying he would vote for me but not (and again here...) and a few other minor things. The issue is simple- is Fenix just making bad plays, or is he scum making really odd contradictions. Some of the things I thought of when looking at Mementoss' criticism are 1) Most newbies games don't find a mafia in day 1, the analysis is too shaky, 2) Fenix made multiple mistakes with terms and ideas, reinforces the idea that Fenix is just making bad plays... On March 23 2012 11:44 BlueyD wrote: I don't know if the guy is awful scum or awful townie. All I know is he's awful. If he's town, he'll be absolutely useless to us, . This might be true, but we still have a few people that are lurking really hard. I was hoping to stop lurkers with my vote ultimatum, and it worked (or helped) with a few people. But we still have a few that aren't posting. After thinking about it, I think a vote for one of these is better. They are less helpful than "awful town" and also, it prevents them from being modkilled- which is real bad for the town. On Froggy You came out VERY defensive. I called for lurkers to post, and they did... But hey, that's not my strategy!: On March 23 2012 04:54 froggynoddy wrote: The decision to lynch should therefore be based on 1. information (gathered by pressuring, amongst other ways) 2. Correct analysis. But without 1. we shall never be able to do 2. And therefore any decisions to lynch will be less strong. Your turn Euro's. See you in the morning. | ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
He essentially had zero content in a few filler posts. Then he voted on a bandwagon without activity. BUT the slip from Artanis[Xp] is too severe. Mementoss pointed it out, but it is worth repeating: On March 23 2012 23:55 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Agrees with another townie to gain cred, this is a trend in Seviro's posts; rarely comes up with any own ideas and mostly agrees with other townies to 'blend in'. Also jumps on the against the 1 hour bandwagon which is fairly obvious. Long post basically stating the obvious and agreeing with other people. 1. ONLY scum know who the townies are. This is a simply point, they know who is mafia, therefore they know who isnt mafia. Even if a DT checks someone, the person could have been framed, or the miller, or the GF or whatever. The ONLY way to know someone is town is TO BE mafia. 2. To call this a newbie mistake I think is incorrect. Freudian slip is more likely. There is a natural hesitation in everyone's mind as they play this game. To post with certainty that someone is a Town, even in 3 words, is a massive slip. On March 24 2012 01:58 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Oops, yeah that looks bad. That was a bad town play. What I meant was someone making a play that is obviously town favored. I worded it poorly. I believe it's a slip that both townies and scum can make with little effort though. 3. His only defense is "oops, my bad, scum slips dont happen since I would vet every post". Doesn't convince me. If this were true, 90% of scum slips wouldn't happen! This is too severe to overlook! sc2system is a good lynch, I still don't think Fenix is a great lynch, but Artanis is the clear day1 lynch in my mind! ##Vote: Artanis[Xp] | ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
On March 24 2012 05:10 Seviro wrote: Yeah I know, I just feel like it's too obvious to be true. I might be wrong tho. Don't confuse a big tell with a big mistake. The mistake itself could have be fixed with 1 word: Potential or Possible Townie or change townie to person. The tell is big, the mistake was 1 word. | ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
That said, the deadline is approaching and a lot of people seem intent on Fenix or Sc2system: On March 24 2012 05:30 Gossemerr wrote: @ Everyone. I have to leave in 30 minutes and then I will be gone for the day. So is it going to be sc2system or Fenix? Sc2System was lurking hard for the first 24 hours. Then he came out with a bandwagon vote for fenix. He changed it today: On March 24 2012 05:58 sc2system wrote: I am withdrawing my vote for Rise Of Fenix because I said in my post that if he starts caring more about the game that I will withdraw it. ##Vote: No Lynch It's pretty clear to me that Fenix isn't doing a great job, as someone pointed out, he promised to play better tomorrow, despite several hours still available today. That's pure silliness. But it's moreso silliness to accept that defense... Within TWO MINUTES of sc2systems vote, seviro pointed out virtu hasn't been posting in 22 hours. Serviro voted for vitru, and ONE MINUTE LATER, we get this: On March 24 2012 06:03 sc2system wrote: ok if you say so: ##Vote: Virtu but if he posts a good post that is helpfull I will unvote him. "If you say so"? Really? If I were mafia, I'd stick this guy in my pocket and tell him who to lynch tomorrow... Fenix has been playing poorly. But he made repeated mistakes on things like the rules and terms. This seems typical of a noob. Sc2system has lurked hard, then jumped on bandwagons, then changed bandwagons, accepted terrible defenses, all in the course of a few minutes. Much worse imo. All of that said, I still am leaving my vote on Artanis. I think the slip was a Freudian slip. This slip is considered to be the biggest mistake in Mafia, I don't think we should ignore it, and I don't think we should accept the defense that was offered. On March 24 2012 05:24 Mementoss wrote: @Artanis, I don't believe your defense, but its not enough to warrant a day 1 lynch. Now that I have given Seviro a chance to defend, your case against him seemed weak to me. It was basically him discussing things that were going on in the thread, while they were important, don't see how this is scummy. If you think its a slip, vote for him! | ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
On March 24 2012 06:49 Mementoss wrote: I dont think Artanis is the right vote for today. Its not much to go off of, and Day 1 lynch is usually better to go for a safe bet. I think Sc2system is a safe bet, all he does is hop in out of nowhere and bandwagon. At this rate we are heading for a no-lynch town. We really need to just come together and agree on someone. On March 24 2012 06:51 Mementoss wrote: We know who should be around now basing on recent posts/ said they were going to post: Nova, Mementoss, Virtu is supposed to be posting, michael, sc2system(maybe) I somehow misread the voting rule as whoever has the most votes at the end of the day gets lynched, I don't know how I read that since the zbot states everytime you need 7... I will indeed be around until the deadline (or just before, I think its a bit past my bedtime). I will change my vote to sc2system if no one else goes for Artanis. I will vote for Fenix near deadline if necessary, but I have already stated my lynch candidate preference order. Day 1 Lynch is better than no lynch, get voting! | ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
There seems to be several people who think that sc2system is the better lynch, but are voting Fenix to make us reach the 7-person majority. I have stated that I will be up at, or just before, the deadline and will change if needed. If you can do the same, and you think sc2system is a better lynch, vote for him. We very clearly are going to lynch one of these two. ##unvote: Artanis[Xp] ##vote: sc2system | ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
On March 20 2012 23:22 GMarshal wrote: Voting rules: 2. Please vote in the following format: ##Vote: GMarshal. Votes not done in the correct fashion will not be counted.] Votes are counted by bot, so be exact with formatting. Double hash, bolded, and a : @All If you are concerned about changing off Fenix, I'd suggest you simply change now and if you go to bed, change it back. Although, if you most count, I think we are at 3. We would need 1 more assuming Fenix's gets counted. | ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
On March 24 2012 08:41 Rise Of Fenix wrote: ## unlynch michaelthe ##lynch sc2system. I think sc2system was a better lynch, but fenix can't even post in the proper format 10minutes after we tell him what it is. I'm thinking just stick with Fenix and call it a night. I will still be up, but I think we are done for day 1. ##Unvote: sc2system ##Vote: Rise of Fenix | ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
On March 24 2012 23:11 virtu wrote: I suppose this outcome is about the same as lynching an inactive green, as he was pretty much useless as far as pro-town posting goes...my big worry is that tomorrows lynch will be on sc2system who kinda seems the same as RoF, he could very well be another genuine case of a quite inactive and weak posting townie. If this happens the town numbers will be dwindling rather quickly... Will have a good read through the D1 activity and come up with some thoughts later on today. It was more or less expected that we'd get a bad townie on day 1. I thought it was pretty clear he was bad town rather than mafia, but just a really bad town who couldn't even vote in the right format last minute that would have saved him. This doesn't make it a bad lynch, because it provides information. We need to go back and look at who voted for who and when. This will be useful, but only mildly, since his play was so bad that there was massive consensus. The other points of analysis for day 2 will analyzing the activities of night 1, and of course, searching for scum slips. On March 24 2012 21:26 froggynoddy wrote: Just read the write up in full. I think DoYouHas is trying to tell us something... I normally don't read all of the flavor text, because it is designed to be just that, flavor. But I did read it carefully this time, since the town is losing all the newbie games, it is within the realm of possibility that some hint was given. But after a careful read, I don't see anything. | ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
This is going to be long post, we actually have a good bit to go over! Night 1 Results: I was initially surprised to see a vig shot on a townie, but it quickly became apparent that this was a great call by Artanis. I would have been going at his throat today due to his slip. Artanis basically proved it was a typo, as he claimed. Artanis is now pretty confirmed town. He also picked his target well. Sc2 was at best an anti-town townie. Initial Day 2 Thoughts At the end of day1, I reread the argument between Seviro and Artanis. While I was pretty sure Artanis was scum, I thought Seviro's reponse was absurd. I came to the conclusion that one of these two were most likely scum... Since Artanis is now mostly-confirmed, the attack on Seviro gained another look. I came today and read and took notes the last 3 pages or so. While reading Night1, I noticed that Goss was the only one to suggest before AND after that sc2 vig hit wasn't good. This was in my notes, but I actually didnt too think much of it until Artanis posted something. Artanis posted a list of 3 ppl. I am going to attack the other two on that list. I know this looks scummy (zomg, Im on a list of 3, look at them 2, not me!), but I think people will see me being reasonable rather than overly-defense on the attack on Seviro/Goss. I already posted that these two aroused my suspicion. My reasons above and below should be clear. Defense from Artanis Artanis makes two points: 1) I defended Fenix as probable town: There were two clear options: He was terrible town, or he was terrible scum. What made me think he was just terrible town is because he was confused on multiple issues regarding the rules and terms in Mafia. He wasn't playing scummy, he was playing confused. I made the case that sc2 was a better lynch, but it was clear we had two useless players, either of them wasn't bad. I think most people weren't surprised when Fenix flipped town, but everyone was fine with that. 2) You call it a change in play style when I went from analytical to jumping on you hard for your slip. I much prefer an analytical style- rather, thats how I think. I would suggest jumping on you was objective. Everything I know and have read about mafia points out that your slip was the largest scum slip in the book. I could imagine mafia vets coming and analyzing the game and saying “WTF, NO ONE CAUGHT ARTANIS' SLIP?!?!” You yourself admitted it was a giant slip. Jumping on it was objectively a good thing. If you want more, let me know. On Seviro: (This is based heavily on his filter, pull it up if you want to see specific posts, this is already long enough without them all) First substantial post after initial wave of basic crap: On March 23 2012 08:10 Seviro wrote: EBWOP, If we agree that everyone should have a vote posted at a set time before the deadline (since no one disagreed right now let's say 8 to 6 hour) we can then make a better choice for the lynch of this day and if someone fail to do so then he is most likely to be proposed as a lunch candidate. He is suggesting a policy lynch based on not voting within an 8 hour deadline. The reason policy lynches are bad is because it removes analysis and focuses only on the policy. This one specifically means someone would be a lynch target simply for voting 4 hours from the deadline rather than 8. If you get scum to meet the deadline, the scum get a free town kill. Seviro's reponse to Artanis Attack. I was fairly certain Artanis was scum, after what I saw as a strong slip. But I think the vig claim was great (more on that later). I reread the Artanis / Servio post and thought Artanis' attack was simple (based on day1 stuffs..) but Serviro WAY overreacted with his defense. He went on to vote for Artanis in his defense, which is a TERRBIE move! FOUR minutes later he states a willingness to go after Fenix... After the Fenix train picks up some steam, he totally forgets about Artanis. Then he changes OFF Artanis and... onto Virtu, for not being active enough. His acusations are extremely fickle. He ends the day by jumping on the same train as everyone, Fenix. After Day1, he posts that he thinks sc2system is town. He has defended bad play of Fenix and SC2 as town. ONLY MAFIA KNOW WHO TOWNIES ARE! On March 25 2012 06:43 Seviro wrote: This is what I meant by pressure but not necessarly lynch, I put my vote on him and then he came and posted his thought so I switched back. This is what I call pressure play. He discusses the virtu vote as “pressure”. A vote with nothing behind it, with no case, nothing. He doesn't at all revisit his Artanis vote here. His most recent posts finally address the Artanis vote, his reasoning is ABSURD: On March 26 2012 01:47 Seviro wrote: I don't think it was a "chainsaw argument" as you say because I did defend myself. I just thought "ok, he took all my post out of context so let's do the same thing with him". I know that was a bad play, but your accusations were meaningless so I just kind of did the same. Now i'm gonna go read some filter and I'll post some of my thought after, especially Mementoss, a lot of people seem to think that he his almost confirmed town and given last game scenario, I don't like that. So brb in some hours. He says it wasn't a chainsaw defense, but then pretty much describes a chainsaw defense. We have all been discussing the initial Seviro/Artanis issue, I think Seviro would rather see it buried. On Gossemerr: What really caught me off was him talking about the vig shot. Before and after the vig shot he thinks its a terrible idea. On March 25 2012 12:07 Gossemerr wrote: Wow... fail vig shot.. I was too damn late. Now I slightly suspicious of Mem and Virtu. Entirely WIFOM, but makes me wonder. On March 25 2012 11:56 Gossemerr wrote: Are you SERIOUSLY suggesting that our vig should shoot someone who is possibly not a mafia? You would ACTUALLY want to waste a mafia kill on a bad town player? I think sc2system is playing either bad scum or town right now, as my older posts suggest, but why does he HAVE to die right now? Maybe Day 2 he will actually contribute. First, here is why its a good vig shot: 1) Artanis had a LOT of heat on him (at least in mind) due to a big mistake of calling someone a townie (which only Mafia could know). Artanis is now the most confirmed town we have. 2) sc2system was either a anti-town townie (useless posts, wanting to confuse ppl, etc.) or scum. A vig shot on him isn't bad in either case. A townie posting anti-town crap is useless. Even more useless if they get modkilled later for inactivity! Further more, it is particularly absurd that Goss would dislike this vig shot because Goss' ONLY attack has been agasint sc2system! Why would be pro-lynch on him and not pro-vig hit!? I think Goss thinks it's pro-town to frown upon a vig shot hitting a green, and therefore did. Everyone else was pretty much in consensus that it was a good vig shot. Conclusion I think this is terribly scummy from both Seviro and Goss. Seviro wanted his bad play buried, he ignored it mostly, and then defended it poorly. Goss made a big mistake of being the only person to go against the vig hit, despite making a case agasint the target! He went against the vig hit because he thinks it's pro-town to frown upon the vig accidently killing a green. Right now I would vote for either of these, I think they both made major mistakes. If I could vote twice, I would. I'm starting with Seviro because I think it's too his advantage to have more time past from his mistakes so he can bury them. Also, he has already tried, and failed, to cover up his bad play, Goss hasn't had a full chance to defend himself. ##Vote: Seviro | ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
It took my daugthers entire nap to type this up, and I missed the last few posts. I will be able to read a bit, but not respond much (typing while holding a 14mo old doesnt end well) until tonight. | ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
one last note before I'm out for a bit. If anyone wants me to respond to Seviro, I will- but it seems to me like he is forcing really weak cases to try and bury his terrible play and Artanis issue. Both his cases are rather poor and forced. | ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
You make two points about my ultimatum: 1) 3 out of the 4 people I posted as lurkers are now dead townies. 2) I didn't vote until 23 hours after my 8 hour ultimatum. Reponses: 1) two are dead because they are bad townines. This is the reason they were on the inactive list, this is the reason they were selected to die. The reason they are dead and on the list of inactives has the same root, this in no way makes their deaths have a causal relationship to my list. This should be completely easy to see by anyone. 2) My ultimatum was an attempt to force lurkers to post. All of them actually posted. Fenix spammed useless content, one said “I'm awake”, one said “Im drunk”. No one strictly failed, it was only mildly successful at making people post. On Artanis, you make two points: 1) I targest Artanis after we had two good targets to lynch 2) I was the second vote for Artanis, not the first I refute both of these points with one simple point: Artanis' slip was a major one. Artanis himself said so. Every Mafia guide says so. It ended up being a complete accident, but there was no way to tell this at the time. At the time, this was one of the strongest pieces of objective information we had. Your claims are terrible, they have no weight, I find them very artificial. There are a few people who have said “oops, that does look scummy”, but I have not with the above. My responses are simple, and straightforward to your meritless claims. I think you are artificially trying to make a case. | ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
So if I disagree that using the vig shot on someone who is maybe town (now confirmed), that is scummy to you? Don't see the reasoning there. And in my reasoning I said maybe he would have stepped up his game, who knows what could have been happening IRL. Also, I would not say that EVERYONE was in a consensus, only a few have any said anything about the vig shot being a good idea. I can see why Artansis would want to save his own ass, but we still wasted a potentially free mafia kill. Moving on, I never voted for sc2system so how would that indicate that I was pro-lynch? I really don't see how I made a "major mistake," by thinking the vig shot was not a good idea. I tried to post as soon as I got home as well, but it was already near the deadline. I really have a hard time following how thinking that the vig shot was bad is somehow making me seem scummy to you. Anyway, I'm going to analyze the thread and filters and post in a few hours. sc2system feels like the safer bet to me. Scummy post that I point out above, and then hardcore lurker basically since. On March 25 2012 02:06 Gossemerr wrote: sc2system is the most scummy candidate in my opinion that we currently have. There are a few other cases out there on him so I won't rehash those. However, this response to when I asked: Are you SERIOUSLY suggesting that our vig should shoot someone who is possibly not a mafia? You would ACTUALLY want to waste a mafia kill on a bad town player? I think sc2system is playing either bad scum or town right now, as my older posts suggest, but why does he HAVE to die right now? Maybe Day 2 he will actually contribute. On the vig shot: -You had made a case against him. You had a high suspicion he was scum. This was YOUR case and YOUR suspicion which you later essentially deny. -You suggest that he might have “stepped up on day 2?” More likely he would have made it more difficult. I think that was clear on day 1. -Artanis basically confirmed himself town for day 2 when he was a good lynch target for day 2. He gave the town a valuable asset, while taking out a useless/bad/possible scum person. -Even AFTER you realized the above point, you still dont see it as good? You are pretty much the only person who sees the vig kill as bad, I still do not understand why. There has been a call for you to post some more substantial content. I would like to hear your thoughts on the current issues. Nova and Seviro would be a good start. | ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
He was already on my short list of potential suspects. I think the initial case against his meta shift was okay, but pretty much confirmed by his reponse and ppl from last game, in addition to analysis of his posts this game and weak defense. I would also hope we get 6 votes on him rather than 5. Why? Mafia benefit from a no lynch, as the same targets would remain with no new info. A mafia could quick switch from one target to make this happen, maybe even Nova voting for himself. After seeing Seviro vpte himself, the other option is that both of the two targets tonight are red. Seviro and Nova could be planning to swap votes last second in order to score the no lynch. They could both argue this is better for them, since they both suggest self preservation as the motive. (Although this may be weaker since I am posting this). Nova has been posting some random analysis in the past few hours. This could be a last ditch effort to prove useful, or he could also be doing this to try and get me hit tomorrow in the day lynch if Seviro comes up green and is killed tonight. If we killed seviro, and he flipped green, we would have two suspects, Nova and Me. Nova would obviously go for me. Again, I think we need 6 votes, if not 7, depending on which scinario we have (and who the third mafia is). ##Vote: Nova_Terra | ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
##Unvote: Seviro ##Vote: Nova_Terra | ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
I think its clear that either one or both of the targets are red, otherwise they would just lurk. We have to kill one with a large margin though, as the no-lynch is a big thing we need to be careful of. Read my above post, I think Nova is the target for tonight. | ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
On March 27 2012 06:47 Gossemerr wrote: Why would a townie that is up for the chopping block just lurk? I would definitely not be lurking in their shoes, as that would look HELLA scummy. You sir, are becoming more and more suspicious in my book. I mean if we had 2 townies on the chopping block the mafia would just lurk. Not the townies lurk... Instead we have a lot of activity, so at least one, if not both, are prolly scum | ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
On March 27 2012 06:59 BlueyD wrote: I still stand by my idea that both might be red ------ Seviro (6): michaelthe, BlueyD, Nova_Terra, Artanis[Xp], Mementoss, Seviro Nova_Terra (2): Ninja4ever, Gossemerr And then he switches to Nova, saying we need 6 votes on a guy - but we do before he switches, and not after! He argues that mafia benefits from a no-lynch, but he's actually getting us closer to that himself. Now Seviro just has to switch back at the last minute and we have a no-lynch... So we have here a nice case of "actions go left, words go right" by michaelthe. IF they are both red, 2 of the votes on Seviro are now mafia on the chopping block. Both could swap, saving atleast 1 mafia for another night. We would have 4 votes on Seviro after they both swap. Seviro would even claim self preservation. Thats the best explination for Seviro's swap to self. I will state that I will be until deadline again, and swap if needed, but we would need A LOT of people to do that tonight if we have 2 mafia on the chopblock. | ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
If BlueyD swaps to Nova, and Artanis we are set if none of the votes on Nova swap off. Mementoss should be active as well. | ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
On March 27 2012 07:13 BlueyD wrote: Sure, michaelthe, we can decide we're not counting the 2 guys we suspect as mafia. Then the vote count was 4-2 and it's now 3-3. We're still farther away from a lynch than we were before. Look at who we have active as well: Mementoss, Artanis, You, Seviro, Nova. We can get the guaranteed kill on Nova easily. Goss and Ninja are both afk. | ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
| ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
Re: Mementoss The most likely case is that Seviro and Nova are both scum. This is the only reason Seviro's self vote makes sense. The only way to get a guaranteed kill tonight is to have either Ninja or Goss or Virtu be here. We now have two of them. The only supermajority before would have been achievable on Nova. It would be pretty easy to achieve a no lynch tonight if we didn't have this supermajority. If I were scum, I wouldnt have posted that strategy and my scum buddy would swap last minute for a no lynch, citing self preservation. Should we have Seviro flip tonight, and Nova tomorrow, that leaves one to find. ##Unvote: Nova_Terra ##Vote: Seviro | ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
2.) 3.) Artanis[Xp] 4.) 5.) virtu 6.) Nova_Terra 7.) michaelthe 8.) 9.) Gossemerr 10.) Ninja4ever. 11.) BlueyD 12.) Crazy. Self voting and going afk made it look clearly like a mafia move, but there will be plenty of time for that later. We will most likely be at 4 Town 3 Mafia tomorrow (pending vet/doc chance). This is a MYLO tomorrow, and will be even if we hit a mafia each lynch, assuming they get a townie each night. Forget single cases and single suspicions. We need to each go over everyone with a fine tooth comb. I have a busy day tomorrow, but will try and get something out before the end of night. | ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
I have stated, and I think my record shows, that I have tried to be objective and analytical. I want to make my case, but I want to respond to Mementoss first. As he systematically goes through my play, I will simply do the same, explaining my actions. Opening Play My first move was to post a list of inactives, and post an ultimatum to force them to post. The town agreed that we needed to pressure, but we still had 4 people posting little to no content. This was a simple play, and if any of them failed, a simple vote would force the person to talk even more. This play was only somewhat successful, fenix posted immediately, but with no real content, and I think sc2system and ninja posted “im drunk” and “im just waking up.” People have pointed out that three of the four on the list are now dead townies. I have responded to this before, but I will again, its very simple. All four were on the list for being inactive, two of the three were killed for being inactive/bad content. The reasons are the same for being killed and on the list, but this is not a casual relationship. I don't know what else to say about this, the correlation is clear, but its clearly not causal... Artanis Case I believe that day 1 cases are, for the most part, weak. But I also have stated I think that this slip was huge. Again, every single strategy post on a wiki or thread here has stated this is the biggest scum slip. In fact, Artanis clearly admitted this, and also knew it was still a major issue going into day 2 which prompted his vig shot. Objectively, going after this slip was obvious. I think its only due to the terrible play of our day 1 lynch targets that Artanis lived. Again, this was simple, analytical play. If I need to post Artanis' defense, you can see it was weak (since the slip was so big). Seviro The reason Seviro was on my radar, and in part why we hit a chaotic few hours at the end of day 2 is simple: Seviro did a terrible job at responding to pressure on him. Artanis made a day 1 case, which again, as a day 1 case, was weak. But Seviro came out swinging with a chainsaw defense. That put him on my radar. In his defense, Seviro pretty much said “its not chainsaw! I defended myself THEN attacked him”. Despite this, I actually spent more of my time trying to figure out why Goss would not like the vig hit that gave us a confirmed townie. Near the time to vote, I swapped to Seviro from Nova. I did this just shortly after Mementoss swapped and Seviro self-voted. I thought Mementoss would swap back, as he seemed to be leaning nova all day. But then I had to figure out Seviro's play. The ONLY thing that made sense to me is that Nova and Seviro were both scum. If Seviro simply didn't do that(self vote and AFK), he would probably be alive right now. Instead, he literally went afk as the s*** hit the fan regarding his actions. I posted that as the likely scenario and its clear everyone agreed. We had a 100% lynch on Seviro. Again, Seviro has had terrible reactive play, and this completely sealed his coffin. Seviro posted, with his last living post, a case against me. His play was EXTREMELY reactive all game long. I addressed my actions on the end of day 2, the real issue is why Seviro waited until 30 minutes or so until voting closed to post anything. He could have saved himself if he were there just a few hours earlier, instead of going AFK... Seviro was too reactive, that was clear from day 1, I think his last case is just another example of that. The ClusterF*** of End of Day 2 I have already addressed how this happened. Unfortunately, I unwittingly contributed to it due to Seviro's bad play of going AFK and making me think him clearly scum. No one had a better reason as to why Seviro would play that way, that is clear by the vote going the way it did, everyone was convinced. Unfortunately, Seviro just made a terrible play that made no sense. A good question for the end of day 2 is who else contributed to the clusterf***. Obviously, Seviro would have prevented it by simply not self-voting. But there was one other big player, which brings me to my current case: Mementoss One of the things I noticed early on is that people commented on his role of moving the town's opinion, as mafia, from last game. Many people think Mementoss is very heavily town, precisely doing this this game as well. He even called a mafia role as “controller”, something that, if he is mafia this game, he has done well by controlling the belief that he is town. As for last night, he swapped from Nova to Seviro about 15 minutes before my post. He was gunning for Nova all day, but ended up swapping to Seviro. His post made him seem very on the fence about who to vote for, so I thought it was clear he would swap back to Nova without much issue. At this point, I expected Mementoss to swap back. However, instead, he kept the chaos going. His next post contributed to the chaos, and kept people guessing. He cast doubt on my logic, heavily contributing to everyone's confusion. He had about 3 posts doing this. However, when it became clear that people were on board with my analysis, he retracted: On March 27 2012 09:00 Mementoss wrote: Yeah I kinda freaked out, in a moment where I was just mad when I seen what was happening. It was most likely it was a lapse of bad judgement by michael and I overreacted. I was looking far too into WIFOM at the end because I was so close in between who I wanted Nova or Seviro, it ended up confusing me even more. On top of that I looked like an idiot, cause instead of straight analysis I have been doing I was doing more of what if's piled on top of what if's with crazy master plans. I will go back to what works, good plain old logic. Depending on the flip/if we get a replacement will decide how our night discussion goes. I'm done posting in this game for tonight, I will come back to check the flip. He even posts here that he would have been willing to vote Nova. Again, if Seviro didn't play so bad, and Mementoss didnt play the way he did, we would have had an easy Nova lynch. The confusion was heavily caused by Seviro's odd move followed by AFK and my analysis, but Mementoss was the other major contributing factor! I am able to defend my actions clearly, by posting them as objective analysis of the actions of the few hours. Mementoss, on the other hand, basically posted: “meh, yeah, I could have voted either way and I also overreacted”. Confusion heavily aids scum. I contributed to the confusion purely due to Seviro's absurd play and my attempt to analyze it. Why did Mementoss contribute to the chaos? Brief Recap: - He has people convinced his is town, this is precisely what he did last game as scum. - He heavily contributed to the chaos of last night, without any reason to do so! - I just read Goss posting the slip of Mementoss calling people “a couple of townies”. Wow. His response: “people leaning town by my analysis, goodnight!” Dont let him bury this slip! I think the Scum are: Mementoss, Nova, and one other. | ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
But right now, we should look at the night kill. Mafia has two options with night kills: 1) Kill someone random. The idea here is to give zero info. I think this was the case on night one. 2) Kill someone posting content. This is made to throw off the town. It adds a bit of confusion. This seems to be the case tonight. Right now, there are two questions: 1) Why was Goss targeted? 2) Why WASNT Mementoss or Artanis targeted. There are only a few things that come to mind for Goss: I attacked him some on day 2. He was then suspicious of me. He made claims against me and mementoss: On March 27 2012 12:24 Gossemerr wrote: I need to post something before I go away for a while, as it REALLY bothers me: Mementoss, the apparently super green townie Mementoss did this EXACT SAME thing last game. For those of you whom didn't read it: He was a scum that game, and he basically said this "either Seviro (who was also in that game, was town) or Gossemerr (me, was also town) are scum, but NOT both." Basically it meant that if we followed his logic then we would lose two townies. It so happened that we lynched Seviro and the game ended because of mod kills, but you all should get my point. I don't like this shit. Its like adding connections where they should not be, in order to influence votes. Here look at this earlier quote: He clearly states that we should not be adding connections above, very clearly actually. Also he did this same thing last game at the same time, when the next day would be a lynch or lose situation. If we lynch wrong D3 we lose already, unless there are more blues (but I don't think so as there was only one last game). notice how, Seviro flipped town.. If he is scum, this would be another smart play to make sure the game is won. All of us remaining town really need to read and analyze tonight. If you are scared to post because you might be murdered, just post with like <5 minutes left or whatever before the night post (I will probably do the same in case I die tomorrow as well). ##FoS: Mementoss On March 28 2012 07:35 Gossemerr wrote: Moving on I would like to add some stuff on michaelthe: What the heck? Why even post this, all useless, especially the list. And plenty of time for going over Seviro's self-vote later? Why? There is not point in dwelling on this when we could be finding your buddies. Now for the bold part. What does this even mean? We need to lynch a scum first before we can connect them to others. Why waste time going over everyone when we can make the strongest case and get a scum lynch, then move forward. You will die tomorrow. Obviously, a Goss kill would be risky for either me or mementoss if we were mafia... but being obvious, WIFOM... I also saw this last content post: On March 28 2012 09:21 Gossemerr wrote: @ Mem: you didn't respond to my question about Nova. @Artanis: I feel the same way as your first sentence. If Mem is scum its over, he is too green in everyone's eyes. Again, would be odd for Mementoss to target Goss, knowing we would look at this, but again WIFOM. I would just suggest we don't bury his content posts from last night- including this: On March 28 2012 07:35 Gossemerr wrote: @Mem: Um, how would you know this? Also, yeah that underlined bit may not be so pro-town, but I remember last game where someone said that they were going to wait until after the night kill to post their case so they would not get killed (I don't remember who). So, basically I just meant don't be afraid to post, because we really need it. Also, why have you totally lost all suspicion in Nova? I have my reasons, but I will post them after you. Who Wasn't Targeted: If both are town, Mementoss or Artanis were obvious targets. Mementoss suggested that maybe Artanis is somehow actually scum. I find this a bit weak. I can post why, but pretty much the game would be too skewed. I don't know why Artanis wasn't shot. Killing a confirmed town is pretty obviously beneficial to scum. 1) Artanis' analysis could be off, meaning him staying alive will be advantageous to scum. 2) The scum could think there is a medic. This would mean two blue power roles- the scum might be able to guess there are two blue power roles based on how many special roles they have. I think this is somewhat less likely, since that would be a lot of power roles in a 12 man newbie game. Why wasn't Mementoss shot: 1) I would suggest OCCAMS RAZOR: he is scum. 2) If he IS town, I think keeping him alive has the advantage of making me a clear lynch target, as he is gunning for me as well. But I think Occams Razor is the clear reason! A final thought: -If I am scum, it would have been obvious to target Artanis or Mementoss. If I am scum and flip red, it means the town has pretty much 2 very strong greens. This would be a terrible plan. I should stress this with an underline! -If Mementoss is scum, all he has to do is get my lynched today and he wins. | ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
I will make this easy to digest: Mementoss: 1) SCUM SLIP LAST NIGHT + Show Spoiler + On March 28 2012 07:35 Gossemerr wrote: @Mem: Um, how would you know this? Also, yeah that underlined bit may not be so pro-town, but I remember last game where someone said that they were going to wait until after the night kill to post their case so they would not get killed (I don't remember who). So, basically I just meant don't be afraid to post, because we really need it. Also, why have you totally lost all suspicion in Nova? I have my reasons, but I will post them after you. 2. MADE NOVA CASE, NOVA NO LONGER ON RADAR + Show Spoiler + Wrote this AFTER voting on day 2: On March 27 2012 08:19 Mementoss wrote:But in the end I think either Nova or Seviro would be a good lynch at least for information, and if we are lucky. They are both scum. He has since taken Nova off his lists. That would mean we had 0 reds on trial on day 2. 3. SAME META AS LAST GAME, HE WAS SCUM THEN + Show Spoiler + Caught by Goss, WHO PLAYED LAST GAME: On March 27 2012 12:24 Gossemerr wrote: I need to post something before I go away for a while, as it REALLY bothers me: Mementoss, the apparently super green townie Mementoss did this EXACT SAME thing last game. For those of you whom didn't read it: He was a scum that game, and he basically said this "either Seviro (who was also in that game, was town) or Gossemerr (me, was also town) are scum, but NOT both." Basically it meant that if we followed his logic then we would lose two townies. It so happened that we lynched Seviro and the game ended because of mod kills, but you all should get my point. I don't like this shit. Its like adding connections where they should not be, in order to influence votes. Here look at this earlier quote: I can't believe people are just ignoring all of this, I guess he is really good at controlling the town's opinion, just like how he won last game. Quick Recap of my defense: 1- My analysis was never bad, It was good analysis of bad play from townies 1.1- Artanis day 1, accidently made what is considered largest scum slip 1.2- Seviro- Very reactive aggression, but Self Vote and AFK at end of day convinced everyone. I hope people start posting today, otherwise its GG. I have another pretty busy day, but will check in in about 6 hours and then this evening before votes are final. | ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
| ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
On April 02 2012 20:33 Mementoss wrote: Lol fuck. God dammit Nova, I shoulda kept my original gut feeling on you. At least I was right about michael/ninja. The part that killed us was Nova/Seviro day. I wanted to stay on Nova, and did until like 6 hours before deadline from start of day, but no one was budging to give that side majority and Seviro's self vote killed us. If he woulda posted his last post earlier I think either Michael or Nova woulda died that night. GG We knew me either me or nova would be f*d if we just straight up killed Seviro. We discussed busing Nova on day 2, a ballsy strategy, but Ninja started the vote on him that day and I would have secured it- making us both look clean. However, Mementoss and Seviro posted shortly before. We already discussed the strategy and didn't think too much about it. But the Seviro self-vote and AFK made things get turned on their head. The outcome wasn't too bad for us since it caused so much confusion, and made a strong line between me and Nova (regardless of who died) which wasn't questioned enough later. The real shame is that inactive players realllly kill these newbie games, and there isn't much of a way to stop that. We had several people not contribute the entire game. Mafia would have still secured the kill on BlueyD on the final day, but inactives still make things tough. GG all, it was fun | ||
|
michaelthe
United States359 Posts
On April 02 2012 14:53 DoYouHas wrote: I will do an analysis of this game if you all would like. (Don't want to just be speechifying) If so, it will have to wait until SOAF mafia is through as that will be demanding my attention. I would appreciate this, but if you are busy that's fine. | ||
| ||
