EPTA Game of Thrones Mafia
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
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Xatalos
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(Nevermind my doubts, seems like others without prior games are also participating!) | ||
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 So it's required to post at least once every 48+24=72 hours? I hope this game will be active, but that I won't be decided guilty while I'm asleep or something like that  | ||
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On March 21 2012 16:48 wherebugsgo wrote: hi I'm vanilla town Wasn't Petyr supposed to be a neutral party...? Anyways, glad the game started I hope the first day lynch won't be just a random lynch, like it usually is in the SC2 Mafia mod. At least here we have more time to "read" players and everyone has to post! | ||
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On March 21 2012 17:30 evantrees wrote: Lynch the Liar! Where other men wield swords, he prefers the dagger. Bugs are you going to be killing people on us or do you get to do something more amusing? Haha Petyr can't be lynched though... We'll just have to wait and see what he's going to do. It would be more productive to focus on finding out the Mafia players, since we can't do anything about Petyr, even if his win condition is to kill everyone else or something like that... | ||
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From my experience in SC2 Mafia, random lynchers were usually Mafia (trying to get townies killed) or trolls. However, since I guess the skill level here is a bit higher, you might be just trying to reveal Mafia players by forcing them on the defensive. In any case: if my previous experiences have any value, chaoser and risk.nuke have a higher chance of being Mafia than town. (At least we now get to see some interesting reactions, I hope! Acrofales had a quite interesting reaction, too, although it doesn't necessarily mean Mafia yet... Some people haven't said anything at all yet, and I can't wait to see what they say. At this rate there will be a huge amount of data to base lynch votes on ) | ||
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But with these rules, I don't think chaoser and risk.nuke are necessarily Mafia - it's very possible they are just aggressive town players (or trolls). risk.nuke's post at least seems more like a troll than a real accusation. Hmm.. Maybe I should also random vote. Several people are still lurking, so it would seem sensible to put the pressure on them Too bad Petyr is such a mystery, but seems like Mafia is the only possible target at this point. | ||
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On March 22 2012 01:20 GreYMisT wrote: Xatalos, I'm interested on what you think about Wherebugsgo/littlefinger. How do you think we should go about interacting with him now that we know he is 3rd party? We don't know his win condition, and we can't do anything to him, so I guess it would be best just to completely ignore him? The more he trolls the game, the easier time Mafia will have. The less of a presence he has, the easier it will be for town! The more I think about it, the first reaction of Acrofales is pretty suspicious... If there is no better candidate, he might be a good target. However, he could also have been just upset by the random votes as a beginner. But the reaction was a bit... strong, for a townie...? I didn't choose you for your player history or anything, gumshoe! In fact, I didn't even look at your profile I just dislike people who lurk and say nothing, and you were the first lurker I saw when I looked for lurkers - but you were just offline, so it's not really suspicious.I wonder if we should continue with the random votes...? It seems a bit counter-intuitive to me, but it seems to produce a lot of good data (reactions from the targets, and even other players!). | ||
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On March 22 2012 01:57 Oberyn wrote: What does "interesting" mean? Is it scummy? Any kind of information is good (this is a game of information, after all ) - such as information that increases or decreases the chances of someone being Mafia. There can never be 100% certainty, but since we have to vote every day, we will have to go by probabilities, and without information there can be no probabilities. We have already gathered a lot of info, but many (half?) of the players have talked next to nothing. Even if we lynched Acrofales as a "somewhat likely" Mafia, we would still want to gather more reactions before Saturday. | ||
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On March 22 2012 03:29 Zealos wrote: Seems too keen to play on the confusion around WBG. Lynching him even though it is explicitly stated that he is unlynchable? One of these content-less scumesq posts imo. Lets hear some actual opinions on people? Hmm... I didn't really think too much about GreYMisT wanting to lynch Wherebugsgo, since I thought he just hadn't read the rules at first or something. But he's clearly not a beginner (hosting the Aperture Mafia and all), so I have to ask, what was your purpose to do that? To confuse the discussion, or was it just a mistake? I wouldn't say this is any real evidence of being in Mafia, but I just can't think of a reason for a townie to do that? :O That second post though, I don't it's suspicious. Isn't it reasonable to question someone who is so overzealous to hear explanations (I can't think of any way for Acrofales to prove his innocence, anyway - even his role reveal would be be more harmful than useful, if he is town...). | ||
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On March 22 2012 03:44 GreYMisT wrote: If it wasnt already apparent that the "Guys we should lynch wherebugsgo, just to be sure" was a joke, me saying later that it was should have made it quite clear. Haha, way to confuse us When I think about it, it didn't seem so serious to begin with, and I didn't think about it too much. Then someone started questioning that statement and got me to also question its meaning.gumshoe... Yeah, he doesn't seem like a bad target. I voted OriginalName earlier though, to make him react somehow, but he's still missing! | ||
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On March 22 2012 03:57 GreYMisT wrote: Can't really get someone to react to a lynch vote if we don't announce it now can we? "Voting is done in a separate thread, located here. Please keep votes there, and only vote there." I thought you can't put your vote here? It's true though, that he might not notice the lynch threat, if it's only in the voting thread. Another problem is that he probably won't make a fatal mistake anymore, since he has had time to analyze this thread...? | ||
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On March 22 2012 04:06 Curu wrote: You can announce your votes in the thread for the purpose of punctuating your point or announcing your vote, it just won't be counted unless it's in the voting thread. Thank you! Okay then, I will also type it here: ##Unvote ##Vote OriginalName Anyone with me to put more pressure on him? Although it will be useless if he doesn't post until close to the deadline. And I don't know if it's good to lynch someone without good clues, even if he is a lurker....? He might be an important town role who just went on a trip without internet.There's still a lot of time before this day ends, so be sure to vote someone you want to put pressure on, even if you aren't certain that he is Mafia. When someone is under pressure, they will make mistakes more easily | ||
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On March 22 2012 04:12 Zealos wrote: #Original Name Lets try to get him talking (By the way, fix your post in the voting thread! ) | ||
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(They might just be offline too, though...) | ||
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On March 22 2012 04:35 Risen wrote: I'm going to say we need to wait a bit more before calling people lurkers. I woke up, posted a bit and then went to class. Some people have jobs and shiz where they wouldn't be able to respond until later today (like 6-8 hours) Heh, good point I'm going to sleep in a few hours though, and if they haven't posted anything yet by the time I wake up, I'll start to get suspicious of their intentions! But it's true that most people can't come online at several points during the day, let alone while not at home. I can use my phone to check this thread, if need be, but those "lurkers" might only access internet once per day or something... | ||
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##Unvote ##Vote Nicolas | ||
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Nicolas hasn't responded to my vote, but maybe he's just busy with his life or something? Also, as someone said, voting without any evidence isn't really much of a pressure. Maybe I should drop my vote on him for now, although I don't like people just avoiding contact like this... Although I'm a newbie, I'll try to give my opinion on the "main suspects" for being Mafia (I'm going to ignore WBG's accusations, since I don't know what info he has or even what his motives are): 1) Acrofales: The first person to act suspiciously, becoming very defensive and aggressive after some pressure. He hasn't been otherwise suspicious though, so maybe he was just surprised by the situation and overreacted (he isn't a veteran, after all...). I wouldn't say he is cleared by his more recent actions, but I wouldn't say he is the main suspect either. 2) gumshoe: Suggesting a role claim for Acrofales might have been a plot to abuse his newness and to make him reveal a possibly critical town role, but I'm not sure about that. He didn't understand Petyr's role either at first - perhaps he didn't quite know what he was doing in his first posts. If he was a veteran, he would be very suspicious, but since he's not, I'm not sold on lynching him yet. 3) Mattchew: He hasn't said anything truly suspicious, but he has been extremely aggressive towards Acrofales, and even accused people of being Mafia for merely considering the innocence of Acrofales... Same as with gumshoe, he might be merely playing in a confusing way (newbie/personality trait), but to me he seems slightly more suspicious than gumshoe. As for Oberyn... I don't really think he's in the same league as these three. He has certainly been cautious, but not overly defensive. He hasn't contributed that much, but then again, neither have most of the players (yet). Why lynch him now, instead of one of these three? I'm going to change my vote to Mattchew for now, but it's definitely not final. I'll wait for some sort of consensus to appear, since there's still a lot of time left. ##Unvote ##Vote Mattchew | ||
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On March 22 2012 17:48 SamuelLJackson wrote: You are going to wait for some sort of consensus to appear? How does that make sense? Overall that post is a bit wishy-washy and I'm not liking the fact you are focusing on, as you call them, "main suspects" as that suggests you are less interested in finding scum on your own and more interested in blending in. Although you are a newbie? Really? I didn't say that I would sit idle and stay with my vote on Mattchew With consensus I merely meant that before being too sure about the suspiciousness of anyone, I would wait for more analysis and reactions.As for why I talked about those three now... So far I have focused on lurkers, but without any results. So I thought to give my opinion on the ones everyone has been talking about. However, I still think the lurkers would need more pressure on them. I just don't really know how to do it, since a single vote doesn't scare anyone, and they haven't given any reads either. What would you suggest then? Opinions seem to be split: some want to focus on lurkers, some on the ones with possible Mafia reads. | ||
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On March 22 2012 22:57 Mattchew wrote: Also he looks like he contributes, but in reality all of his posts say next to nothing. He tries to pressure vote Gumshoe, OriginalName, and Nicolas but is extremely flaky about each one and votes someone new basically as soon as they post regardless of what it is (Somehow he reads Gumshoe's posts and then moves his vote to OriginalName, and then calls Gumshoe his 2nd biggest scum read) "all of his posts say next to nothing" - I beg to differ. I was the first poster to advice we should ignore WBG and focus on Mafia, and I was also the first poster to notice how exaggerated Acro's response was to a simple pressure vote. You, on the other hand, have (instead of contributing) used mostly meaningless one liners, confusing arguments focusing on small details like if a pressure vote was "real" or not, and dodged questions by burrowing the discussion in petty arguing. You also seem to change your mind really easily - a moment ago Acro was Mafia, and now he is suddenly town? What happened during this time to change your mind, I'd like to hear the reason for that? I changed my vote between gumshoe, OriginalName and Nicolas because their first posts didn't really seem suspicious. Also, I failed to put them under heavier pressure, because I didn't yet have any evidence to pressure them with. Then I decided to try and pressure you, since you seemed at least as suspicious as Acro and gumshoe, but hadn't actually responded yet (only avoided confrontation by dodging and confusing the discussion). You didn't actually answer to any of the accusations (some of which have been said long ago) even now, although your response was at least somewhat productive this time around. | ||
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On March 23 2012 15:50 Sinensis wrote: Xatalos come back, I insist. I don't care if you just paraphrase some more obvious facts with the occasional smiley, I would really like to see you post more, and I would also like you to answer my question of "How many games of mafia have you played?" (Just woke up by the way... Why the hate on smileys?  )Take a look at my first post: On March 19 2012 04:21 Xatalos wrote: Can I join this game as a "newb"? I have played the SC2 Mafia mod quite a bit, so I basically know what to do, but I have never played Mafia in a forum. So, clearly the answer is that this is my first TL Mafia game, but I have played some SC2 Mafia games, although the gameplay there is vastly different to TL Mafia, so it's not really comparable. I don't quite understand your intentions with that question... Did you honestly not check my previous posts? And if you did, why would you ask that question? Also, I'm not fond of your focus on Oberyn and MrZentor. They don't seem suspicious to me, especially Oberyn with his more recent nice analysis. Are you just trying to pressure them or do you really think they are Mafia? And why do you think gumshoe is innocent? On March 22 2012 13:10 Sinensis wrote: I just don't think mafia would post so frequently early on if they didn't even understand how the special role in the game functioned. You can't give someone a free pass just because they're new. He might not have read the rules, but that doesn't yet mean either town or Mafia. What do you think of gumshoe now - is he still innocent in your eyes? Another post I would like to mention is this: On March 22 2012 09:24 risk.nuke wrote: just to clarify, my original vote for greymist was pressure and I want to lynch him now for other reasons. Why would you hold back information? Were you just busy, or waiting for something to happen? I can't think of many good reasons for a townie to hold back information, but there are many reasons why Mafia would want that (creating confusion, slowing down the discussion, etc...). Your long post 10+ hours later contains at least some information, but I remain suspicious of that earlier post. Also, Mattchew... You seem very eager to switch targets and jump on bandwagons (such as Acrofales and Oberyn - I know you didn't actually vote for Acrofales, but you were riding the bandwagon nonetheless). If you had voted for layabout, you would have pretty much jumped on every bandwagon available, but for some reason, you haven't (yet) jumped on that bandwagon. Why is that? In any case, bandwagons aren't usually beneficial for town, so your fondness of them makes me think you are trying to look like contributing with your vote, while actually you are just following the general opinion and blending in. | ||
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On March 23 2012 10:55 gumshoe wrote: Also how is it weird to equally suspect your two highest suspects? His mindset seems to be completely wrong. It looks like he doesn't focus on lynching a Mafia player, but rather a person who is "useless" (no matter if he's town). First he says that Acrofales is pretty much certainly a Mafia player... Then he says that Alderan is also most likely in Mafia. But who does he decide to vote for? Not for either of these (apparently Mafia) players, but rather for Layabout - his only basis for this seems to be "even if he's town, we don't lose much by lynching him". The goal of this game is not to preserve useful players or to kill useless players - it's to lynch Mafia! If gumshoe isn't following this logic, he must be pushing the agenda of Mafia, not town... I'm still suspicious of Mattchew, but right now gumshoe is looking more suspicious to me. I'll change my vote to gumshoe, but I would still want somebody to investigate/vigi Mattchew. Acrofales isn't to be given a free pass either - investigate/track maybe? I have a small suspicion of risk.nuke, mostly because he held back his reasons for wanting to kill GreYMisT for so long, but I wouldn't probably vigi him yet... ##Unvote ##Vote gumshoe I'm not sure when I'll be back online, but hopefully before the deadline! | ||
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I want to believe Mafia had a huge influence on this vote, because otherwise this doesn't look promising for future votes. I wouldn't look too much at the votes themselves, because I doubt Mafia would focus their votes on a single target (especially day 1). A better clue would be the discussion around layabout on day 1. GreYMisT's suspicion about gumshoe at the start looked promising, but I have to ask, why did you then switch to Oberyn and layabout and forgot about gumshoe? In my opinion, gumshoe has become increasingly suspicious during the game, not the other way around. I don't think layabout was among the best lynch candidates, and definitely not Oberyn either (he even gave his opinion on every player without hesitation, which would hurt a Mafia player in the future, since he would have a harder time saving his teammates later). Also, SLJ, you are partly to blame about the layabout lynch, even if not intentionally. Why would you vote for him, encourage others to vote for him, then leave the matter be? Where did you exactly "tell everyone your case on layabout was shit"? It's hard to say who was pushing layabout with good intentions and who wasn't, but of one thing I'm quite certain, and that is gumshoe's suspiciousness. I seriously can't understand why everybody seems to have forgotten about him? He just posts some suspicious stuff, then posts some even more suspicious stuff, and after that disappears completely! He hasn't even responded to my previous pressure at all... Since he is the combination of a suspicious Mafia agenda pusher and an unhelpful lurker, I'd say he is still a better lynch than someone like GreYMisT. Let's look at my previous post again: On March 24 2012 01:55 Xatalos wrote: His mindset seems to be completely wrong. It looks like he doesn't focus on lynching a Mafia player, but rather a person who is "useless" (no matter if he's town). First he says that Acrofales is pretty much certainly a Mafia player... Then he says that Alderan is also most likely in Mafia. But who does he decide to vote for? Not for either of these (apparently Mafia) players, but rather for Layabout - his only basis for this seems to be "even if he's town, we don't lose much by lynching him". The goal of this game is not to preserve useful players or to kill useless players - it's to lynch Mafia! If gumshoe isn't following this logic, he must be pushing the agenda of Mafia, not town... Why didn't anyone even consider lynching him after I pointed out these things? Seriously, I hope I hadn't been sleeping by the time of the deadline... He could definitely use a Detective visit today, at the very least! So, if you're a Detective, Jailkeeper, Tracker (or even a Vigilante) I would give serious consideration to these people for today: gumshoe, Mattchew, GreYMisT, Acrofales, risk.nuke. I'm going to be offline for a quite long amount of time beginning shortly, but I might be able to post again later today. Please, try to be wiser about the special power usage than the previous vote behaviour... | ||
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SamuelLJackson and GreYMisT, it seems like you both have been online, but why haven't you answered these matters I have been wondering about? On March 24 2012 19:36 Xatalos wrote: GreYMisT's suspicion about gumshoe at the start looked promising, but I have to ask, why did you then switch to Oberyn and layabout and forgot about gumshoe? In my opinion, gumshoe has become increasingly suspicious during the game, not the other way around. I don't think layabout was among the best lynch candidates, and definitely not Oberyn either (he even gave his opinion on every player without hesitation, which would hurt a Mafia player in the future, since he would have a harder time saving his teammates later). Also, SLJ, you are partly to blame about the layabout lynch, even if not intentionally. Why would you vote for him, encourage others to vote for him, then leave the matter be? Where did you exactly "tell everyone your case on layabout was shit"? | ||
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On March 25 2012 06:00 GreYMisT wrote: I switched to gumshoe because I began to agree with the majority of people that his mistakes were not particularly malicious. in the end I agree that he posted things that were in fact too dumb to be mafia. While I dont normally agree with statements like that, I will be keeping a very close eye on him, and I expect his posting to improve. You mean *from* gumshoe..? I don't think his first posts were all that suspicious either (bad town/Mafia, hard to say), but don't you think his attitude towards the layabout lynch was suspicious? And if you actually think gumshoe is merely a dumb townie, who would you prefer to lynch? Oberyn? I don't still see how he's so suspicious (especially over people like gumshoe, Mattchew, etc.). | ||
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On March 25 2012 06:24 GreYMisT wrote: yes i meant from gumshoe. I felt oberyn was suspicious yes, and was also suspicious of how all threats towards him simply dropped. It was not the same way with gumshoe. I think that was just because of his massive analysis post... Don't you think it was pretty townie? Who would you want to lynch, if not Oberyn? | ||
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I'm not really sure about his lynching, since there is a possibility of losing a Detective without gaining much (it doesn't yet make Acrofales Mafia, or prove anyone's innocence). But since there is a good chance of him being Mafia, or putting the pressure on Acrofales if he is a Detective, it doesn't seem like as bad a lynch as layabout. Since everyone seems to think gumshoe is innocent (for some reason), it wouldn't be of much use to vote for him anyway. I'll check back later to reconsider my vote, though. Hopefully there has been some more productive discussion and analysis by then, or even a better lynch target than Risen. ##Vote Risen On March 25 2012 13:52 Mattchew wrote: so if risen is telling the truth im like 3 times confirmed town, and if hes not im like 4 times confirmed town How does this even make sense...? And why are you so inherently defensive? I'm still suspicious of you, and these overly defensive one liners don't really help your case. If Risen is Mafia, you would be slightly less suspicious, since he even voted you while it looked like you were on your way to being lynched. But if he's a Detective, I wouldn't exactly call you "confirmed town", because he pushed your lynch earlier. DoYouHas was also suspicious of you... | ||
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There are 8 votes on him already, so I doubt this bandwagon will turn around in these remaining 20(?) hours. So, the wisest move would be to change the focus from arguing about Risen's questionable logic to analyzing the events of the day 1 lynch and especially night 1 kills. MrZentor already had a good take on DoYouHas earlier: most likely he was killed because of his focus on Alderan or risk.nuke (probably not both, but you never know). He was also quite calm and analytic, which is bad news for Mafia, so it's not 100% certain that Alderan or risk.nuke is Mafia. Still, I would keep a close eye on these two. Acrofales also made a post about SamuelLJackson, although I don't really agree with his conclusion - the blue kill was most likely just a surprise bonus, and what Mafia really wanted was to stop him from speaking. The reason for that could be any or all of the following: A) he had solid, calm analysis B) he was an experienced player C) he suspected GreYMisT and chaoser. Any one of these reasons would make for a good Mafia kill, and the possible combination of them all would make a very necessary Mafia kill. Think about it: if I was GreYMisT or chaoser and I saw some veteran like SamuelLJackson coming after me, I would want him dead right away. But certainly his experience alone would have made him a good target. (By the way, gumshoe, how long have you been offline? 3 days? Since nobody else seems interested in you, I'll just leave you on my watch list, but you better do something useful once you reappear from your lurking. Same with evantrees - this guy hasn't really contributed anything yet! Is he aiming for a world record on lurking or something? Try to at least appear useful or you're merely a bandwagon-hopping voting machine...) | ||
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On March 27 2012 00:48 Oberyn wrote: Xatalos, to be clear are you voting for Risen because you think he is scum or because there are 8+ votes on him? What is your excuse for not posting ON? I don't see how a town player can go 72 hours without providing their opinion. If I had been the first voter, I would have probably voted for gumshoe... But then I saw that Risen had already gathered 5(?) votes with his anti-town behaviour, and since there was no chance to lynch gumshoe anymore (everyone seems to have written him off as a dumb townie or something) I thought that this was an okay lynch too - at least better than the previous lynch of layabout Risen has been creating chaos in the thread and prevented a lot of potentially useful discussion, so I find it a bit hard to believe he would actually be a Detective... But considering his overall lackluster reasoning, he might just be a REALLY bad Detective. Still, this isn't a bad lynch, although not initially my favorite lynch either (I still can't let gumshoe off my suspicions, at least until he has posted more and better). I'll have to go through every player's filter to make a rank order of their suspiciousness to make my life easier...OriginalName... Not really sure what to make of him. He's been lurking hardcore, but he hasn't made any Mafia reads for me so far (unlike gumshoe, who has been equally lurking). I mentioned evantrees's lurking because he was a runner-up in yesterday's lynch and as such SHOULD be focusing on contributing and clearing his name, but it seemed more like he wanted to hide and be forgotten... I'll have to check both OriginalName's and evantrees's filters carefully to see if there is something indicative of Mafia play (their filters are among the shortest ones though, so there isn't much to work with yet). Are you going to vote for Risen yourself? Or for someone like GreYMisT? There's not much point in throwing a single vote at someone right now though, since they won't feel even a slight bit of pressure from that. Risen has made us waste a day on himself and most likely can't avoid being lynched at this point. If he is Mafia, my suspicions for Acrofales will drop quite a bit (I can't imagine Mafia risking two members only to waste a day of discussion). If he actually is a Detective, well... It doesn't yet reveal us Acrofales's alignment, but I'd be more cautious about him (a Vigilante hit on him wouldn't be a bad option). | ||
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On March 27 2012 18:40 risk.nuke wrote: We don't need a case, we got a redcheck. Acro. Sit down shut up. Mods can we have a 24 hour day today if town agrees on it? There won't be or well you don't know with the ratio of morons in this city but there shouldn't be much confusion about who we're lynching. Why would you want to reduce the amount of time town has for discussion? This raises my suspicions of you slightly. Also, why not contribute anything and merely post a one liner saying "we don't need discussion, we need uninformed action"? -.- If there is a second Vigilante left, you should probably shoot Acrofales tonight. If nothing else, it will prevent a day being wasted on a single argument (like day 2). I'm a bit curious about his breadcrumbs though... Is he preparing for a roleclaim later? Like MrZentor did with his "code"? If worse comes to worst, we might lose another blue this way... I'd say shooting him is still a good bet though, or we might waste day 3 completely AND end up using the lynch on Acrofales anyway. | ||
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On March 27 2012 20:17 Mattchew wrote: Oh so you want to out more blues? Cool. Thanks for claiming scum in thread Could you make an actual case against me instead of throwing a one liner at me every time I say something? The way I see it, you just panicked after I made my initial lynch vote for you and started throwing baseless one liners at me to somehow make yourself look "less suspicious" by making me look "more suspicious". All this seems like a scared counter-pressure to shift the attention away from yourself. Frankly, I can't think of a reason why a townie would be tunneling so hard on me after I merely made an analytic decision to vote for you (although I switched to gumshoe after I saw his newer posts). The only conclusion I can think of is that you are a Mafia player trying to get me lynched (not very skillfully, I might add), only because I suspected you. I see you made some sort of a "case" against me right after I voted for you, which revolved around me being a bit unsure on who to lynch. This is my first game game of Mafia (in a forum), so of course I wouldn't be 100% confident and decisive in my first posts, but I've been trying to improve and I think I'm a lot more confident in my skills now (there aren't many veterans here either, so it's not really necessary to trust other people's opinions...). And what of it if I use smilies every now and then? Please, make a good case against me or stop that useless spam! | ||
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On March 27 2012 21:50 Acrofales wrote: Okay, I'll bite. You're also following the same stupid reasoning here that Greymist, risk.nuke and Mattchew want to jump on. You suspect I might be blue, but you think it is better to kill me than confirm? Losing a vigi and a DT isn't enough for you? I'm not saying you are a blue, I'm saying I'm 50/50 on whether you are a Mafia pretending to be a blue or an actual blue. There's no way you're a green townie, with your breadcrumbing pointing at a specific role. I don't personally think you're the best lynch target either, but since most people seem focused on lynching you tomorrow, vigi shooting you would save day 3 from being wasted on your lynch (no matter if you're Mafia or town). (I have to say though, if Risen hadn't flipped DT, you would seem like the more convincing blue so far. But if day 3 is going to be wasted on your lynch anyway, there's not much point to leave you alive for tomorrow...). | ||
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Not much to say here... Too bad for you if you were a townie after all. | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
I'll go through every player with my opinions/notes as well as a verdict: good/medium/bad lynch. Good lynch: I'll vote for one of these if possible. Medium lynch: I'll vote for one of these if necessary not to get a bad lynch lynched. Bad lynch: I won't vote for one of these - I can't see them being Mafia. gumshoe: He's been my top lynch for a long time, but I don't think he's the best lynch anymore at this point. First of all, he has been inactive for a long time, so he'll probably get modkilled soon anyway. Second, as some others said before, his careless and bold posts don't fit the Mafia mindset very well. Very possibly he's just a noob who spoke what came to his mind, no matter how possibly suspicious. Verdict: Medium lynch. Zealos: Apparently some think he's suspicious, but I don't really see it. He's been very active, contributing and created a pro-town atmosphere. Unless I see something damning from him, I'm not willing to vote for him. Verdict: Bad lynch. Mattchew: I really didn't like his confusing and disruptive way to play on day 1, but in the end, he's been generating a lot of useful discussion. Also, I can't believe Mafia (Acrofales) would have focused so hard on getting a fellow Mafia player lynched... I'm not willing to vote for him anymore. Verdict: Bad lynch. risk.nuke: I was a bit suspicious of him after his first posts, but his later posts have been a lot more contributive. I'm not sold on either his innocence or guiltiness yet. Verdict: Medium lynch. Jitsu: OriginalName was a lurker, but Jitsu has contributed quite a bit after he took over. I haven't seen anything suspicious about him yet... Verdict: Bad lynch. Alderan: He hasn't contributed very much, but isn't really a lurker either. Not a very bad lynch choice, but not among the best. Verdict: Medium lynch. chaoser: Clearly has experience in playing, but hasn't contributed much, disregarding some of the more trivial discussion. A semi-lurker who doesn't look very pro-town, but not anti-town either. Verdict: Medium lynch. Lyter: Has contributed little and posted seldom. Something feels off, but not a top lynch yet. Verdict: Medium lynch. GreYMisT: Also an experienced player, but hasn't contributed much or often. Was the runner-up in day 1 lynch, but wasn't voted by even a single Mafia player. Both him and chaoser haven't done much to help town, but GreYMisT feels more suspicious to me. Verdict: Good lynch. sinensis: Doesn't look very interested in adding to the discussion, voting without much explanation or contribution. Apparently suspects evantrees mainly, but doesn't push his lynch other than voting for him. Verdict: Medium lynch. evantrees: A hardcore lurker without real contribution. Certainly feels a bit suspicious, but could also be a disinterested townie. Verdict: Medium lynch. So, I'll probably be voting for GreYMisT tomorrow if I can. | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On March 30 2012 02:59 Jitsu wrote: Hmmm, I just reread some shit on Xatalos. I think he would be an even more of a solid lynch candidate. Let’s look at the facts. Early on, chaoser strikes gold but randomly picking Arcofales for a lynch target. Yeah, it was random, but it was a good, lucky hit regardless. I looked back at the entire portion of the thread to see reactions from players. Some got aggressive at chaoser, which could be construed as Scum trying to soft-defend their bro by chainsawing chaoser for getting lucky. Among those is this post by Xatalos: + Show Spoiler + Oh, here come the random lynchers again From my experience in SC2 Mafia, random lynchers were usually Mafia (trying to get townies killed) or trolls. However, since I guess the skill level here is a bit higher, you might be just trying to reveal Mafia players by forcing them on the defensive. In any case: if my previous experiences have any value, chaoser and risk.nuke have a higher chance of being Mafia than town.The first thing I noted was the awkward placing of the smiley face. It may seem small, but it’s a gesture of “Hey, I’m accusing you of being bad, but doing take me too seriously.” He then says that, in his experience, random lynchers are usually Mafia or trolls. He deduces that chaoser and risk.nuke have a higher chance of being town then Mafia. That sets the basis. The only reason to set the standard of a joking townie is if you are waffling. Are you a waffle Xatalos? Maybe you are, but I think it’s more likely you are scum. In the end, he accuses chaoser and risk.nuke of having the highest chance, at that time, of being scum. Not a generally great deduction, but it’s a deduction none-the-less. + Show Spoiler + On March 21 2012 23:39 Xatalos wrote: Ah, damn it... No editing! However, I just thought that since you HAVE to vote every day, it might not be such a bad idea to throw random votes early. In my previous Mafia games it was common not to lynch anyone on the first day, and wait for clues on the second day. When people random lynched on the first day, it usually just meant an easier win for the Mafia. But with these rules, I don't think chaoser and risk.nuke are necessarily Mafia - it's very possible they are just aggressive town players (or trolls). risk.nuke's post at least seems more like a troll than a real accusation. Hmm.. Maybe I should also random vote. Several people are still lurking, so it would seem sensible to put the pressure on them Too bad Petyr is such a mystery, but seems like Mafia is the only possible target at this point.There is one post between this one, and the first one involved in this case. He literally changes his stance on everything, 100% reverse of what he said in the first post. Why? What happened between the two points? Did you have a revelation? Did someone outside of the thread tell you to stop wafflin’? With someone who claims to have a good amount of SC2 Mafia playtime, you sure do waffle a lot. + Show Spoiler + On March 22 2012 02:16 Xatalos wrote: We don't know his win condition, and we can't do anything to him, so I guess it would be best just to completely ignore him? The more he trolls the game, the easier time Mafia will have. The less of a presence he has, the easier it will be for town! The more I think about it, the first reaction of Acrofales is pretty suspicious... If there is no better candidate, he might be a good target. However, he could also have been just upset by the random votes as a beginner. But the reaction was a bit... strong, for a townie...? I didn't choose you for your player history or anything, gumshoe! In fact, I didn't even look at your profile I just dislike people who lurk and say nothing, and you were the first lurker I saw when I looked for lurkers - but you were just offline, so it's not really suspicious.I wonder if we should continue with the random votes...? It seems a bit counter-intuitive to me, but it seems to produce a lot of good data (reactions from the targets, and even other players!). On March 22 2012 02:28 Xatalos wrote: Any kind of information is good (this is a game of information, after all ) - such as information that increases or decreases the chances of someone being Mafia. There can never be 100% certainty, but since we have to vote every day, we will have to go by probabilities, and without information there can be no probabilities. We have already gathered a lot of info, but many (half?) of the players have talked next to nothing. Even if we lynched Acrofales as a "somewhat likely" Mafia, we would still want to gather more reactions before Saturday.Then, we come back to Xatalos pushing Acrofales. We know now that Acrofales was a scum player, but Xatalos thinks that Arcofales has a solid chance of being mafia now because of his self-defense of being random chosen by chaoser. He still doesn’t want to vote for lynching someone as “somewhat likely” mafia…why? Coming from a town point of view, why would you not want to vote for someone who presented themselves as “somewhat likely” Mafia? I’m not the best town player in the world, but I know that if I catch the smell of blood in the air, I’m going to go after it. I’m sure a great number of people here know me for tunneling, so you could probably vouch for it. So, where are we? Xatalos been wafflin’, says in a round-a-bout way that Acrofales looks “somewhat likely” Mafia, and then does what? + Show Spoiler + On March 21 2012 23:43 Xatalos wrote: ##Vote gumshoe On March 22 2012 02:38 Xatalos wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote OriginalName On March 22 2012 04:54 Xatalos wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote OriginalName On March 22 2012 04:54 Xatalos wrote: Damn it... ##Unvote ##Vote Nicolas On March 22 2012 17:44 Xatalos wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote Mattchew On March 24 2012 01:55 Xatalos wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote gumshoe Doesn't even put any of his votes on him. Settles instead for someone with one other vote. Overall Posting History This Game: Unhelpful Lurky His filter is extremely easy to read through, and there isn’t much there that is helpful to pushing anything towards town. The thing that strikes out at me, is that even though he claims earlier that he might think Arcofales is “somewhat likely” Mafia, his overall agenda almost feels like he’s trying to keep him alive. Other than that, nothing stands out as exceptionally helpful towards a town-orientated goal, but that’s not saying anything much with the amount of filter I’ve seen so far. Previous Game Posting History No sample to take information from. Additional Points: - Twice, Xatalos presents possible doubt in his mind that Risen might be a Detective. Votes for him anyway. - Early game, places way too many smiles. Looks like he’s trying to hide his inherent guilt by doing dumb shit and pretending to be a jokester. - E’ryday we’re wafflin’. What :O Just as I say you're a bad lynch... Well, those are not bad points, but you misundestand some things. I'm used to using smilies in almost any discussion regularly... Other people also wondered if Risen might be a real Detective and voted for him still... I originally thought chaoser and risk.nuke were more likely Mafia because of the way SC2 Mafia worked (random lynches inititated usually by Mafia)... I didn't push Acrofales hard, although I noticed he slipped his emotions after the pressure, but most other players seemed to think it was just a noobie reaction too...? I couldn't say Mafia or town, and based on SC2 Mafia, it didn't seem wise to push only based on "likely suspicious" (in SC2 Mafia it was standard to trust mostly in special powers, not text analysis)... Sorry that I can't make a longer answer, but I'm in a bit of a hurry already! | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On March 30 2012 09:46 Kohbee wrote: A lot of you are definately on to something reading into Zealos and Xatalos. Personally I believe heavily in the cases presented by Mattchew, Jitsu, and to some extent chaoser. Hm... I'll give you some time to prove to be pro-town, since you just replaced gumshoe, but this isn't a good start. To me, this just looks like a Mafia-manipulated bandwagon easy to jump on at this point Jitsu, I never said you'd be a good lynch after I saw your case against me (like Mattchew said after I voted for him earlier)... I was just surprised that you made a case against me, at the same time as my verdict on you was "bad lynch". I still think so, although I'm a bit suspicious of focusing on me over some much better targets. And how was my opinion list suspicious..? I think it was Oberyn who said that Mafia hate to give their opinions, because it'll be a pain in the future (more difficulties saving teammates later etc.). Since Oberyn was proved town later on, I'm willing to believe him. I'll put my vote on GreYMisT now, since I'm not as convinced about any other lynch target. I hope I don't have to change it later just to make the difference between a medium lynch and a bad lynch... ##Vote GreYMisT | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On April 04 2012 16:00 Zealos wrote: You guys are fucking idiots. Way to make people agree with you... | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
I wouldn't say my play was "strong"... Indeed I avoided being lynched, but it was because I mostly focused on survival (appearing as a noob townie) and didn't achieve much for Mafia outside of our own thread discussion. Also, I was lucky, since Risen caused two wasted days where nothing really happened (except townies died at night...).To me this game was enjoyable, although it was limited by a couple of issues (disinteresting days 2+3, too easy to blend in on day 1 with so much randomness, WBG's endless trolling, too easy to survive on day 4+ even though I suddenly started lurking). It was fun though - mostly because of the very active Mafia discussion and somehow quite active day 1 But I can see why a vanilla townie might find this game a bit boring.Thanks to all for this game and see you later! I can't participate in a while (going to the army), but I'll reappear later at some point, and then you can analyze my play with my post history | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On April 05 2012 17:06 Jitsu wrote: Just saw town lost. Sigh. GG mafia team. It is pretty difficult trying to sub not a game and try to catch up on so much filter and stuff where you can make an impact. After the Arco lynch, I was really hoping people would have read my case on Xatalos..I was fairly convinced of him being mafia when I posted that. I guess I cold have pushes it harder, but agai, trying to come in with thread presence halfway thru a game feels so weird. If anyone has any criticism, have at it...I am all ears. GG. Don't be too harsh on yourself If I had to make a list of who I wanted to kill the most during this game, you would probably be ranked #2. SLJ seemed like the most dangerous player to me, because he suspected chaoser early on and was very confident he could find the remaining Mafia during day 2. At first I wanted to kill GreYMisT too, but he did nothing to clear himself of suspicions or to push a lynch, so we left him for town to kill. There's only so much you can do alone... Most of the town didn't feel very threatening at all. Only SLJ and you gave me the feeling "this player has to die by tomorrow". Although I guess you could have pushed for me harder or made another case to clear GreYMisT/risk.nuke or to lynch chaoser/Kohbee... | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On April 05 2012 17:42 syllogism wrote: Xatalos: I told sandroba that you seemed scum based on your very first posts due to the drivel about sc2 mafia. I could conclude based on your relative fluent English that you weren't stupid enough to believe in that. Unfortunately neither of us was very interested in actually playing the game. Heh, good for us then Why didn't you shoot me with your vigi shot though? Or even mention me? It'd be fun to be town in my next game - if only to see how differently I would behave then. I tried to act like a useless townie, but it's really hard to act against your instincts, especially if you write a lot of text. However, I wasn't under real pressure at any point (luckily), which made it easier. | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
Hmm, any notes about my Mafia play WBG? When and how did you exactly figure I was Mafia? What should I have done differently? Was it good to lurk towards the end and avoid attention? What about my noobie actions during day 1? | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On April 05 2012 18:38 wherebugsgo wrote: wait, a vig shot sandro? WTF? WHAT LOOL Yeah, we used 1KP on him and MrZentor also shot him, so he died regardless of the fact that Mattchew was protecting him. Good thing you weren't town It only takes a couple of people on the right track to get things done... Luckily, there weren't many this time around. You can read through the Mafia chat to see our thought processes more clearly. | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On April 05 2012 22:29 chaoser wrote: My only regret is that we did not kill lyter like I originally planned to and thus would have caused WBG to lose. Lol, I can see the pure evil flowing from your post | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On April 06 2012 04:26 Kohbee wrote: scum actually fucked this up. They should have shot you and mattchew. They were guarenteed a kill and if you were bluffing maybe get 2 if mattchew doesnt jail you. At worst mattchew jailing you would roleblock so he would die, at best you get 2 kills That's true actually... But what if the Medic was someone else than Jitsu healing Mattchew, and Mattchew healing Jitsu? Then we would get zero kills and town would have some pretty convincing role claims. At least this way it was a quaranteed kill of a powerful blue role... | ||
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