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On March 20 2012 12:06 johnnywup wrote:
Sand+Jcarl
lets say they are scum.. it's basically suicide for both of them if one is scum...which is why we won't DT, because we both know that. So could it be possible theyre scum pulling our strings because they know we wont DT them?
And that, my dear friend, is what we call WIFOM.
Of course it's possible, but I can't imagine a pair ballsy enough to actually do it, and it is not the case in this instance.
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If anyone is dumb enough to consider I might be scum in this game I'll probably ask palmar for help on making epic videos.
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On March 20 2012 12:11 VisceraEyes wrote:
The thing that makes it the most unlikely is this: if one of them flips (via vig or DT check or lynch or WHATEVER) then the other is instantly implicated. Instantly. Because in order for it to work, they BOTH have to be scum...or whichever one isn't scum could be all 'Uhh...no, that's a lie' right? So either they're both masons (because they've confirmed in-thread) or they're both scum. And in a setup where DTs AND vigs are a possibility, it would have to be some effing ballsy scum to pull a gambit like that.
That's what Sandroba meant by "confirmed town"...but regardless of the probability of it, it's still POSSIBLE, so he's actually not strictly speaking "confirmed".
Except for the fact that I got the whole thread to vote for jackal on my own. If that doesn't confirm me then I don't know what does.
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I do not think you are scum. I'm just opening my mind to the possibility. It's very very unlikely for you to be scum.
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On March 20 2012 12:12 sandroba wrote:
If anyone is dumb enough to consider I might be scum in this game I'll probably ask palmar for help on making epic videos.
That was too funny, the ammount of fail by most of the town in that game was pretty painful >.<
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On March 20 2012 12:14 sandroba wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2012 12:11 VisceraEyes wrote:
The thing that makes it the most unlikely is this: if one of them flips (via vig or DT check or lynch or WHATEVER) then the other is instantly implicated. Instantly. Because in order for it to work, they BOTH have to be scum...or whichever one isn't scum could be all 'Uhh...no, that's a lie' right? So either they're both masons (because they've confirmed in-thread) or they're both scum. And in a setup where DTs AND vigs are a possibility, it would have to be some effing ballsy scum to pull a gambit like that.
That's what Sandroba meant by "confirmed town"...but regardless of the probability of it, it's still POSSIBLE, so he's actually not strictly speaking "confirmed". Except for the fact that I got the whole thread to vote for jackal on my own. If that doesn't confirm me then I don't know what does.
WHATEVER YOU JUST THINK I SUCK AND CAN'T BE RIGHT EVER MEEEEHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
.....I mean, uh....
Yeah Sandroba, you're definitely not scum this game. Cheerio.
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On March 20 2012 06:51 slOosh wrote:
Catching up and going through Jackal's filter, I don't see anything telling of scum.
Additionally, its been pointed out, but this bandwagon is forming really fast and people are just jumping on.
From what I understand from my experience w/ TL Mafia, jackal doesn't bother putting in effort D1 since he always dies / his early reads are poor (or at least that is what people say about him). Does it absolve him of lurking? Well, combined with St. Patrick Day, power outage and work I'm really leaning null.
And a no-lynch is better than a lynch on (someone who I think is) a null read, especially since this is a true bandwagon where the only true read is Sandroba's and mostly everyone is sheeping. Not gonna lynch someone who I don't think is scum, and can't even apply the faulty "we get information out of it" because we won't.
##Unvote Snarfs
##Vote no-lynch
This post sounds kind of look slOosh thought that his vote was going to make a difference.
I'm interested in hearing why you decided to make a point about switching to a no-lynch 10 minutes before the deadline unless you thought there was a chance that your vote would actually matter.
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@snarfs,
to be fair, there was no clear lynchpin at the time. the last 10 minutes really bandwagoned into lynching jackal
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I mean there were 7 votes on Jackal. 7 is all we need.
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Looking back on it, the bandwagon had already started so disregard my last post
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Of the people not voting for Jackal:
Tobon and jcarlsoniv are most likely to be town. Tobon for his earlier willingness to get on Jackal shortly after sandroba did, which seems very unlikely for a new player. jcarl for masony things.
Probulous is right behind them. I think all his posts so far have been helpful and have showed a genuine attempt to either find scum or protect who he thinks is town from bad cases.
Nemesis for tunneling of VisceraEyes. It seems very unlikely that a scum would target a player as strong as VE is in this game. I would expect scum to go after the weaker players for the lynch then just kill the strong players during the day.
That only leaves slOosh. I think he is most likely scum out of those remaining. Probulous has made a good case and since I believe that Probulous is town, I value that case.
Given these numbers, assuming 3 mafia, I also believe that 1 person on the Jackal lynch is scum as well.
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do we know how many town or how many scum there are?
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Since the flip too, there have been some posts that make it seem like at this point all checks that a cop could perform will be certain. Talk about "follow the cop" or just general directing of a DT role to ease our minds about certain people.
That's why I feel it necessary to point out that there could be a Godfather role as well.
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I don't think it says in the OP but I think it would be reasonable to assume there are going to be 3 mafia.
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No, we don't know how many scum are in the game. I'm actually assuming 4 based on the fact that we have 2 M's and an assumed C based on the fact that we flipped a framer. But then, most of what I know is useless because the C9++ I'm used to doesn't include framers and 50% of the possible setups include an SK. *shrug*
I'm also assuming no GF because we flipped a framer, but again, I'm blissfully ignorant in regard to balance/setup.
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Actually, if Bugs replaced the SK with Framer, there's almost guaranteed GF in the game (all but one setups with SK have a GF)...
Ugh...known setups which are actually really unknown.
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assumed C? what's C? :S im not good with these acronyms
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Sorry...
C9++
The link above explains the setup this game was based on...it involves choosing 7 numbers at random 1-100 and those numbers end up corresponding to letters which determine the setup.
Actually, it's not even safe to assume a DT either, because the roles are chosen at random to begin with. I mean, it seems kinda bastardmod to include a framer in a game that has no DTs, but the setup is random, so I don't know.
This works out a lot better when there aren't unknown factors.
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Whatever, it is what it is. The randomness is kinda cool. We should focus on finding scum rather than nitpicking the setup. The setup isn't going to change.
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Yeah, I'm just idly speculating because there isn't much to do until morning. *shrug*
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EPT
