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Just read your question, have time for a short answer.
On April 01 2012 22:41 Jayjay54 wrote:
Phagga: He comes to many right conclusions and isn't afraid to post whatsoever. One of the quickest to jump on the lightz train. As of now, he is actually my strongest townread. Question to you: Are you a newer player or a Vet?
I never played Mafia in any way before TL Mafia, and here I played 3 games so far: Werewolves 2, Newbie Mini Mafia IV, Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia VIII (also a Newbie game). I was Vanilla Town in the latter two and a Journalist in the first one. I made it far in every game, two times into the endgame, and was both times responsible for town to lose the endgame.... 
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Jayjay, if there is a constellation like 3-2-1, then we need to get rid of the sleeper cell first to avoid having 2 townies killed at night. If there is a constellation like 4-1-1, then it doesn't matter if we go for mafia or sleeper cell first, as long as we get the lynch right.
Also, after reading one of JJs post I realized that what I wrote about Mementoss (power role still being alive) also goes for Nisani. However, as I wrote above, I'd rather go for the sleeper cell first to avoid having to deal with 2 night kills again. I therefore vote for Foolishness for now.
##Vote: Foolishness
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Oh, and food for thought: We don't know if Foolishness used the double-kill shot last night. Perhaps he saved it to use it later to gain instant victory as cell? (He could triple kill if he combines it with the cell KP)
Also, who has the detective item?
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Uh, JJ, the Deadline is in 24 hours...
also: I don't want to calculate too much, but: If we are at 3-2-1, and we kill mafia, that makes 3-1-1. Then there are 2 nightkills, which leave us at 1-1-1, which is nigh unwinnable. However, if we go from 3-2-1 to 3-2-0 and then 2-2-, we can win with an item of Nisani. HOWEVER, that assumes that there is still a cell member left to kill. This is why I stick to Foolishness.
Maverick: You're right, it is possible that there is only one sleeper cell or one mafia left, as we do no know the flips of night one nor the size of the mafia group. What JJ and I are picturing here are the worst case scenarios.
So you want to know my role?
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On April 02 2012 07:34 Jayjay54 wrote:
we also don't know for sure, if cell has a KP, do we? I don't think so looking at last night, because there wasn't one. The bullet was a vig item bought on the black market
Uh, how do you know this? did I miss that somewhere in the thread?
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hmm, you're right. So in this case, the aperture science bullets are probably the new mafia kill flavor (would make sense as they come from turrets), while Adam was killed by a sentry gun (and there might be a second one around). This indeed indicates that the sleeper cell is dead or at least without regular kp.
I'll sleep over it, but I think I will switch my vote to Mementoss.
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Looked through Nisanis Filter. His early game up to the Bluelightz lynch was really questionable and still looks scummy to me. However, he has stepped up his game quite a bit. I also liked how he fought to get off the lynch list once he was pressured, when I read those posts now, I rather think he was genuine about being town.
Nisani lynch candidates:
- Dirk: He wanted a dirk lynch, who was mafia. Dirk voted Nisani and wanted to kill him twice (voted once). Their interaction makes me think they are not of the same alignement.
- Bluelightz: His argumentation for voting bluelightz was lacking. bandwagon to avoid being suspected? However, he switched to bluelighz from dirk, who were both mafia. Why would he bus bluelightz (and risk getting blamed for it) if he could just leave is vote on dirk, who is scum too? Scum normally votes on other scum to get some town cred, and he could have gotten that by voting Dirk as well. Therefore, this behaviour barely makes any sense if he is mafia.
- ghost: He pushed him at a time when several people were pushing him.
- kenpachi: at a time when everyone was still thinking he was scum/3rd.
He also gave the puppet strings to Jayjay, who was generally considered town at that point. This only makes sense scumwise if they are both mafia, which I doubt.
I therefore conclude that Nisani201 is probably not mafia, and I will not vote him.
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JayJay54: He defends me, so he must be town. End of analysis.
 Seriously, I saw JayJay54 as town pretty early in the game (I gave him my Lemon D1/N1 which I received upon the start of the game). I did grow a bit cautious with him over time, and so here is a short analysis on his way too long filter (seriously, 14 pages? That's roughly 8.2% of all posts!)
His stances on some other people, and mind you, these are not all he commented on:
- Sinani: Already pointed him out D1, shot him N1, Derped the kill. Was completely transparent about it.
- Bluelightz: suspected him early (towards end of D1), calls him out again D2, calls him a reasonable Target D2.
- Blubbdavid: suppected him early (towards end of D1), mentiones him a second time 50 min later. Some banter between the two. He is unsure D2. After the colour radiator, he is his second target.
- Kenpachi: says he is useless regardless of alignement on D1. wants to lynch him last of the colour radiator group.
- Nisani: says he underperforms on D2, calls him a reasonable Target D2. Attacks him hard D3 and votes him, too. When he voted him, Nisani led the vote with 3 votes.
- Mr. Wiggles: Disagrees with the case from Kita, says he could me more active though. Calls him scary (N3 I think?), lynches him D4 as the first of the colour radiator group.
- Adam: accuses him of not being active enough as in other games, calls him a reasonable Target D2.
- ghost_403: says his posts are fluff D2.
- Paperscraps: Soft defends him when Kita attacks him.
- Dirk: Defended Dirk D1 because he thought he brought up a good point. Changes his view on him N1 after Dirk attacks Grack for no reason, but still does not want to lynch him D2, because he got masoned by him. Softdefends him several times D2 & D3 because of his ability. Accuses him somewhere around N3 of being third, clearly states that he doubts Dirk is cell or mafia. He repeats this on D4. After the colour radiator has been used he refuses to lynch Dirk on D4 (he decides lynch D4) because he wants to kill cell and he thinks that Dirk is scum. On D5 he suddenly changes his mind and says that Dirk is probably cell, not scum. He then proposes blubbdavid as lynch target who he thinks "has the higher chance to belong to the actual scum team and is the better choice."
What really stands out is his that he defended Dirk very long and Paperscraps a bit as well. However, He voted Bluelightz when he was at 5 votes and therefore far from being a safe lynch.
He trusted Hassy very fast. He had some back and forth with kita, but nothing wild really. Unlike others, he stated his reads on a lot of people. His argumentation looks rather pro-town, and the activity is through the roof which is very unusual for scum. His reads, however, were quite off most of the time. The whole "Dirk" story makes me cautios, I don't like how he treated that. Nevertheless, I don't think he is scum, and there is for sure at least one better target than him. Therefore, I do not want to lynch him today.
Jayjay, what really interests me: You already half-claimed your role, may we know what your role name is?
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Mementoss: Not sure what your playing at concerning my stance on you and Nisani, but I did write later here that the same thing concerning the power role still being alive applies to Nisani as well.
Completely forgot, wanted to change my vote:
I don't think that the sleeper cell is (currently?) a threat, so my vote goes to Mementoss.
##Unvote: Foolishness
##Vote: Mementoss
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Foolishness, where are you? It's been over 36 hours since you last posted!
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Maverick: He wrote it was Nisani and Dirk he shot.
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Mementoss: According to this post it is a bit unclear. I read it that people only die if they visit the person when he/she is being ignited, not in the next night when they die. But actually, should you not know this as you successfully protected Dirk from being killed by Kitas flames the first time?
I find it quite strange that YOU are asking this question...
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On April 02 2012 23:59 Mementoss wrote:
What? This was before Kita's role was revealed. As far as I knew at the time I protected Dirk from a regular vig shot.
That does not change the fact that you protected him while he was burning, so with that knowledge now you could have known that Foolishness would not be harmed by shooting him.
On April 02 2012 23:59 Mementoss wrote:
I feel right now that I am getting targeted for being bad town, rather than being scummy. The votes are all easily floating to me, as the remaining scum (most likely a mafia and a sleeper) would rather not use a night KP on me, when they can just bandwagon me out on the lynch. Most people aren't even explaining how I am more suspicious than anyone else that should be on the radar. There just like Mementoss? Seems like a decent lynch tonight.
In short: Foolishness is not Mafia according to his previous actions. He might be sleeper cell, but they did not kill anyone last night as it seems.
Maverick is of House Chezinou and therefore probably town aligned, confirmed by MidnightGladius who flipped town.
Nisani is probably not Mafia according to his previous actions. He might be sleeper cell, but yadda yadda see Foolishness.
JayJay looks way too townish. He could be Mafia, but I doubt it.
That leaves you, and there is not much that really screams "TOWN" to me. So, yeah, you're my choice.
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Lol, you must be kidding me. JJ voted you first, but I am the one leading town down? Also the only reason why our little discussion seems to dominate the thread is because the activity is very low. Its not like I have pushed you all D6, i actuallyvoted Foolishness first. Also, you asked why you are being voted on, and I answered. Your rage towards me is uncalled for, and seems a desperate attempt when you have no arguments left.
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On April 02 2012 13:21 Maverick32x wrote:
If you think it will make you a scum target- then no... but I'm just pointing out a trend..
I am Magikarp, a Pokémon. I was told that I can level up and finally evolve into Gyarados and learn the surf-power by having my vote sometime during the day on the person that gets lynched that day. However, I voted 5 times on the person that got lynched, and still have not leveled up, so I don't know if it is ever gonna happen. And as I might not get another chance to vote on a person that gets lynched I might as well claim now. I hinted at this "condition" of sort of my role here (I was surprised that noone asked about that).
I asked the hosts what the surf-power does (because I thought I might turn into a blue role), but received the answer that nothing really special happens and that I'm just VT. I hinted at this here. I was not sure if I could trust the host (they're GLaDOS, after all), so I just tried to see if I can level up and if it does something special. Nothing has happened so far.
tldr; I'm a Vanilla Townie
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Derp indeed.
- Nisani: I approve of a bulletproof vest or a Vigi item. However, as the vigi-item can be abused by mafia, I'd go for the bulletproof vest as we do not seem to have any vigi-shots left, so it won't affect town if mafia gets the item.
- Mementoss: If you are indeed town, we could use some hero medic action tonight. At least that is my opinion. I probably would not trust any DT check of you anyway.
everyone else:
GET ACTIVE!
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Ok, this is... unexpected.
As for the item: How about an item that will reveal once the alignement of its owner at the beginning of the day? So if Nisani gives this item to Mementoss, we will know Mementoss alignement. Should Mementoss be killed, the killers alignment will be revealed. Like this, we would know if mementoss is on our side or not.
Also a bit powerfull, but perhaps the hosts allow it?
Or else just a single-use DT item, if possible with Vet-functionality (blocks 1 kp).
I'm quite curious to see what happens with the night post, but I'm even more tired, so I'm off to bed for now. I hope we can get one of the two proposed items, and I hope to see you again tomorrow.
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Posting from phone too. I agree with JJ, pretty much my thoughts.
Mementoss, enlighten me, why is JJ confirmed?
## Vote Mementoss
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We do not even know if there is a sleeper cell left, and if so, it looks like it has no kp (no kill N5). But we still do have mafia in the game with kp. So lynching mafia should have priority.
Also, what is the use for foolishness to sacrifice himself if he learns something that he can no longer communicate to us? That sacrifice would have been useless. No, I'm quite sure that it protected everyone, hence no night-kills.
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I don't know how the self-sacrifice has been executed, but in his last post he actually wrote this:
On April 04 2012 04:09 Foolishness wrote:
##Self-Sacrifice
No idea if this actually triggered the self-sacrifice, but it suggests that he did not get one last post after he learned something.
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EPT
