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Okay two peeps did not vote - either going to be replaced or killed. I'm guessing that if they were scum they would be participating, well at least vote. I have to say that I'm pretty confident that both are not mafia - so that means probably 2 people whom are actually contributing to the discussion are indeed mafia. Kinda adding to that, so far we have mislynched two town that were lurkers. While it is not that big of deal since they didn't help much, our numbers are dropping fast.
I am still holding onto my Nova, Janaan, Phagga suspicions. Phagga in particular basically just attacks me after my post comes out.
On March 15 2012 19:20 phagga wrote:I'm a "he", just for the record. 1 Right, and you analyzed everyone in the game. Oh wait, you did not, the above paragraph is the only analysis you have done so far. So, what exactly is wrong with me analyzing "only" 6 of 10 people? 2 I never said he was town. I stated that there is 1-2 scum in the group of FirmTofu voters, which means there is also 1-2 scum in the group of non-FirmTofu voters. And I can't believe you bring this up again after Nova_Terra and I both explained this very point to Mementoss. 3 If noone is talking about the lurkers, they will be forgotten and get by with it. It has happened in other games, it can happen here. 4 And you said so much more, right? Let's see... You - call cosine suspicious with a daring argument- have disagreed that Eleanthas looks scummy (without giving a reason)- in the same post agreed that FirmTofu looks scummy, reasoning that you wanted to make the same case as Mementoss (but never presented one) - call out Janaan for having a "weird timing"- try to make up a connection between me, Janaan and Nova_Terra And you think you have contributed more than Janaan? I mean, he is lacking content too, but you are definitely the wrong one to call him out on that. You are desperately looking for arguments to connect the three of us when there is nothing to connect the three of us. I could, with the very arguments you used, claim that you and Eleanthas have a secret connection. Actually, that would even make sense, because you are both halflurking and barely contributing. What do you say about that?
Too me this is really not a defence, just attacks me for my lack of analysis. I never said I was doing more, I never said I was not a hypocrite. But the fact that I didn't really contribute a ton of analysis untill that post does not invalidate my post.
Also reading back through the thread in sequence just now I found these two quotes by Phagga to be concerning:
On March 14 2012 18:47 phagga wrote:
We have no idea what the motives of the mafia are for killing sbrubbles. We can only speculate. And if we speculate wrong, we might start hunting and lynching people for the wrong reasons, we will get WIFOM, it will create more uncertainty than facts. The only ones profiting from it will be the mafia.
There is no benefit in guessing what the mafia is up to. Also, it does not matter. Whatever the mafia wanted to achieve, we just need to make sure that we can lynch them, then we win.
On March 15 2012 02:35 phagga wrote:
Finding a mafia may lead to the rest of mafia, agreed. But finding out why the mafia did a specific night kill is a waste of time. There are so many ways for mafia to make us believe one thing while they do something completely other that it is not worth speculating about why they killed a specific player or left another one alive. Also, clever mafia can mess with our heads by killing a townie that was tunneling another townie, giving town the impression that the tunneled townie was actually scum. This leads directly to a mislynch.
So, no, speculating about the motives of night kills leads to WIFOM and mislynches. Avoid it.
How in the world could understanding how the mafia are thinking be bad for us town? If we can accurately figure out why the mafia killed whom they did we can link it back to the individuals involved. Its a integral part of the analysis. If we just ignored all of the night phases and focused only on the outcomes of lynches that would be terrible. In fact that would be what the scum would want from us - to effectively lose half of the game's information. To not worry about their motives and to fight about the mis-lynches. I agree that the staight up kills can be misleading, but thats where the ANALYSIS comes in. Anyways, I still think there needs to be more discussion on Janaan, Phagga, and Nova - especially Phagga and Janaan.
Also, I guess my suspicion that Ele wasn't any more scummy than others was right..
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@ Janaan:
I didn't say to only use WIFOM. Let me clear this up. After a night kill we can look back through the filters and enumerate possible reasons that said person was murdered. I don't see how trying to understand the motives of the scum, coupled with post-based arguements is bad idea.
To your other point, how exactly am I getting people to do my dirty work? I didn't really ask any questions. I made an argument, which I thought was logical, and it was not well received.
Also, pretty much all of your current in game analysis has been to call people out for WIFOM seemingly just to discredit them, or as said by others, to get other people to answer your questions.
SO, Janaan will you please tell us what your TOP TWO scum suspects are at the current moment? Thanks
Also at the Vel vs. Nova case:
I agree with basically all of Vels points; however, I kinda of feel like Nova is just playing badly. He just seems emotional and may not be thinking clearly all the time. He was very wrong with the Ele thing, but so were others. His case was pretty weak too, so its not like he was able to convice everyone to vote for Ele when we should not have been. I am no hypocrite here, I voted for Ele, but mainly because he was lurker soooo hard, and didn't even try to defend himself.
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ebwop:
Forgot to talk about the conclusion of mem's analysis:
I don't really know what to say here, me a Phagga definitely disagreed, but I don't see how I could be scum.
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Nova: your last case on Seviro is almost entirely WIFOM, just saying, although I can semi-agree with some of your points.
On March 18 2012 17:48 Nova_Terra wrote:
1. I think that i defended your case decently
2. I hate lurkers ruining the game so damn much
3. town reads: Nova_Terra Janaan, Mementoss
null: inferno, kori, veli
leaning scum: seviro, gosse
Janaan Case
NT, I have no idea how Janaan can have a town read. If anything he is null. Read through the filter and you will understand. Janaan has offered basically nothing to the ENTIRE thread that is new and worth reading. So far every vote by him has been following the rest with only a short blurb of an explanation.
On March 16 2012 08:23 Janaan wrote:
I find it interesting how Eleanthas just now came into the thread and, even with accusations and people voting against him, he still just posted enough to get his vote out for the day and left immediately. No defense, no nothing. It makes him look scummier to me. Since it doesn't look like a Koritora lynch will happen today, Eleanthas looks just as scummy right now, and as a general rule I dislike no lynches when there's a decent vote candidate:
##Unvote: Koritora
##Vote: Eleanthas
Moving on, NT and Janaan still appear to agree ALOT. I.E.: Janaan said seviro was scummy a while ago, and never really thinks NT is scum. I had my suspicions that NT, Phagga, and Janaan were linked. With Phagga being hit, maybe they wanted to distance themselves and shut me down. This is completely WIFOM, but just thinking here that it could be entirely possible.
On March 15 2012 03:26 Janaan wrote:
Nova_Terra, I don't really know what to think about you, to be honest. It seems like you're trying to be active and helpful, but things like your defense of your actions on day 1 being very defensive and emotionally charged don't quite sit right with me. Neutral for the moment.
Seviro actually looks a bit scummy to me, not enough to come out with any sort of case on him, but I'm keeping close watch on him. Bits like
I already brought up the Koritora thing, which nobody seemed to care about. Ill hide it here if anyone cares to read it again.
+ Show Spoiler +On March 14 2012 08:36 Gossemerr wrote:There is not much action going on so it is kinda hard to read anyone. Only thing that pops out at me is Janaan talking about the days votes after its already over. Earlier he said he would keep watch on the thread, and koritora posted the no lynch vote only a few minutes after his (Janaan's) last post. Kinda scummy imo to bring this up after the fact. Either way I agree with the analysis, just weird timing. Show nested quote +On March 13 2012 14:06 Janaan wrote:GG FirmTofu I think we need to use this night phase to get some cases rolling. We don't have much to go on as far as cases go from Day 1, so we've got our work cut out for us. One thing I noticed from the votes that I found very interesting was Koritora's No Lynch vote. Here's one of his early posts: On March 12 2012 10:22 koritora wrote:
However, to lynch a lurker is not a bad thing. It's not helping anyone in the town. As for people against lynching on the Day 1, that's where my suspicion lies. Then he turns around and: On March 13 2012 09:37 koritora wrote:
Well besides the fact FirmTofu has only made talk about lynching a lurker, there isn't really much else to go on. Same case can be made for InfernoOkami7. But since either hasn't spoken up lately, I can only assume they are lurking and that puts my vote up in the air for these two unless they come and contribute something meaningful. But as of the moment, I can't decide between the two and therefore going with a no lynch.
##Vote: No Lynch First he says that he's suspicious of anyone who is against lynching on day 1. Then he's all of a sudden against lynching on day 1? This seems like a huge contradiction to me. Is it possible that he's trying to take away suspicion since he didn't vote for the mislynch? I'm not sure, but it's definitely possible. I think he's definitely worth a closer look.
and
+ Show Spoiler + On March 15 2012 08:27 Gossemerr wrote:Considering this is a newbie game, wouldn't mafia likely to be outspoken and "contributing"? With something to prove? "Hey don't suspect me im contributing" type of deal. I find it hard to believe that a scum would just not post for this long now - certainly with all this pressure; and especially when there are three of them, and are most likely (don't see how they wouldn't be) communicating with each other by some other means to coordinate. To that notion, the play by Janaan is concerning to me. I made a point in an eariler post about the focus he / she put on Kori's vote after the fact, which was kinda late. Now he / she counters almost every point Seviro makes in his / her latest post - seemingly to dismiss or discredit the analysis. Show nested quote +On March 15 2012 03:26 Janaan wrote:On March 14 2012 22:32 Nova_Terra wrote:
Meanwhile, I would also like to draw a bit of attention to Janaan.
As i was looking through his filter, i often saw a trend. he would post something questioning somebody else, to get their reads on everything, and then not post much about his thoughts. Also, as a way of avoiding posting much about his own thoughts, he would say that nothing seems to have changed, or something of the sort.
Janaan, I would love it if you could make a post explaining your reads on people so far. too much happens by way of your posts and not enough happens that questions your posts.
Note that this is not an FOS. At the moment, there's been so much limited activity, I'm finding it hard to get decent reads off. I'm still waiting for an answer from Koritora, but at the moment, he's my best scum read for the reasons that I presented earlier. Phagga is looking pretty townie to me, his posts make a lot of sense to me and seem to have the right intentions behind them. Nova_Terra, I don't really know what to think about you, to be honest. It seems like you're trying to be active and helpful, but things like your defense of your actions on day 1 being very defensive and emotionally charged don't quite sit right with me. Neutral for the moment. Seviro actually looks a bit scummy to me, not enough to come out with any sort of case on him, but I'm keeping close watch on him. Moving on, there is a fishy link between Janaan, Phagga, and Nova_Terra. Nova's behavior has already been discussed so not going to bring that up here, but Phagga has not really has yet to been focused. He /she has yet to really offer any analysis except one post a few hours after the day 2 post, in which he / she focuses only on the people who voted for FirmTofu, and doing so dismisses Janaan rather easily as town. While on the issue of voting, he constantly wants to talk about the people who are lurking, but there is realy nothing to talk about considering that they are lurking.. Seems scummy to me to keep the town going in circles and wasting hours of actual analysis. Of course the lurkers could be mafia, but really nothing new here. Janaan also wants to lynch the lurkers, and easily agrees with Phagga. My money is on Janaan right now unless something else comes up. He is saying just enough to get by, without saying anything really at all. ##Vote: Janaan
Finally, in one of my last posts I asked Janaan to please tell us his top two scum suspects. His response to me is apprehensive, as if he does not want to give out any names. Nova is obvious, given the heat on him at the current time. But even here he can't say that Nova is scum with any sort of certainty. The second person he brings up is Kori, who has not said a thing since like day 1. But sorta of counters himself by saying that he wouldn't lynch him. This appears to me as scummy behavior - not wanting to point anyone out.
On March 18 2012 04:58 Janaan wrote:
My top two scum suspects:
I definitely think that it's possible that Nova is scum. It's also possible that he's just playing bad, but sometimes, if a player looks like a scum, and smells like a scum, he just might be a scum.
I still think that Koritora looked scummy. If a replacement comes in, I'll be paying very close attention to him.
The trouble is, now that we're so close to LYLO, we really can't afford to make a mistake here. Especially with Koritora, my read isn't strong enough to justify lynching him right now.
In conclusion, I obviously am still very suspicious of Janaan and Nova. So, I am fine with a lynch of either. In my mind there is just not a strong enough case against Seviro for him to be lynched today.
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I'm good with a Nova lynch as stated earlier.
##Vote: Nova_Terra
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Dang you Janaan. If only I could have been more persuasive. Haha, good game guys.
Also Nova, I hope you don't hate me :/
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Is there going to be another one starting up? eager to keep playing haha. I saw a bunch in the queue, but couldn't find the threads
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Thank you Probulous, should have read through that thread haha.
On March 19 2012 13:56 Janaan wrote:
Yeah, man, you had me pinned as scum. You just need to be more confident in your reads next time, and if you really think someone is scummy, push them HARD! I never really felt much pressure, because the only case you posted on me until after it was too late was the one showing connections with Nova and Phagga. Ask questions of your target, use FoS, and vote early. You tried asking me pretty open ended questions, but even when I gave pretty bad answers, I wasn't really called out on it. Part of that was 2 town players being totally inactive, though.
Very true. GG, was fun.
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On March 19 2012 17:59 Nova_Terra wrote:Holy god. I actually feel really bad Gossemerr, Its me who hopes that you dont hate me o.O Really well played by mafia, i was so sure mementoss was town... Thanks jaj22 at the end i was trying to figure out what i was doing/defending wrong that got me lynched, but it was my own stupidity in making a case vs seviro(/gossemerr) that really killed me. it made sense that they lynched me. I think i read into Janaans metagame much too hard too. in his last game he had pretty much the same approach and was a vanilla townie. I wish we had lynched cosine day 1 haha. Of course we read the day/night posts, and i thought they were very good and relatively creative.  . sorry again to seviro and gossemerr
Of course not my friend. Hope to see you again soon.
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EPT
