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On February 26 2012 03:05 syllogism wrote:
I think vote counts have to be reliable and as such roles with additional voting power are either completely transparent (x2 next to the player with the power) or semi-transparent (anonymous vote). He claims that his power is passive and thus it doesn't need to be activated, so one of these two should be true. It seems more likely that his power is not passive, though it seems rather pointless to lie about that at this point. I'm also leaning towards the conclusion that any extra voting power role in this setup would be a scum role, if it's a 14-4 setup with no third party.
So you basicly say you think it's a townie because a lie about that makes no sense as mafia but because it's most likely a 14-4 setup it has to be a mafia role?
I get your point but that sounds so weird. What if it is not a 14-4 setup but instead something like a 12-4-2 setup (Town / mafia / 3rd party)? Would that change your conclusion?
I'm asking because I'm leaning town based on the assumption that he's not smart enough to wifom the shit out of us like that as mafia. Like you said, it's really unlikely that he as a mafia doesn't know about his role, especially if there's people arround telling him how it usually works. That sounds so unlikely and for me the only reasonable case in which he flips mafia would be him knowing how his role works playing the noob-card.
He's gone now, can't answer, that plays into that conclusion as well but I really got to say according to Occam's razor it should be a townie how has no clue because setting this whole thing up is so incredible ridiculous.
But than again, is his situation going to get better in near future? Even if he proves that he actually is a floridian that tells nothing about his alignment because the only plausible mafia case imo is him setting this whole thing up and we're not going to be able to look into his brain and see if it really was a mistake or some shenanigans.
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On February 26 2012 03:13 layabout wrote:Show nested quote +On February 26 2012 02:55 Toadesstern wrote:That's what it was in TL Mafia XLVIII: + Show Spoiler +With 24 players alive, it takes 13 to lynch
List of Voters
Hier (14)
syllogism
Toadesstern
Anonymous
Palmar
Radfield
syllogism
Erandorr
redFF
sandroba
Refallen
Zephirdd
Palmar
Anonymous
Toadesstern
Lanaia
Jackal58
vaderseven
prplhz
I just copy & pasted the text... some of the votes are struck out, that's why some people are on that list twice :p Simply doublevoting would prove that he is a floridian but given what I said that's not making a difference. If his breadcrumb was any good I'd be willing to say it's a townie for sure but that breadcrum he quoted is literally the worst breadcrumb I've ever seen. Even now that I've got someone pointing at it and telling me 'there it is' I'm not really sure of it. That could be anything and for me it'is just not a breadcrumb. So it all comes down to wifom imo OR it really is a hidden, passive 2nd vote and there's no possibility to prove it. Do you realise that an organised and sometimes even an unorganised scumteam will deliberately breadcrumb roles to support claims later in the game? Do you also realise that there is next to no inherent value in breadcrumbing a double vote ability? As town bread crumbing such a role increases the chance that scum will see it and kill you. As town or scum a breadcrumb makes you claim more believable. Bread crumbing is usually a way for you to hide results from checks so that if you die suddenly town can see your flip and find your breadcrumbs and work out your checks. A breadcrumb demonstrates that you thought forward so that you could claim later on. + Show Spoiler [lifted from mafia scum] +"A Breadcrumb is a veiled reference to your own role, actions, or results. It's a form of steganography that allows you to reveal sensitive information without making it evident to everyone that you're doing so. Another advantage to breadcrumbing is that it provides credence to any claim you make - if you claim to be a particular role and show a breadcrumb from very early in the game that reinforces your claim, it directly implies that you have been preparing to make this claim from the beginning of the game.
Breadcrumbing has its problems, though. Many times, they cannot be reliably read unless the crumbing player points them out, and if there are no breadcrumbs at all players may waste their time trying to find them. In addition, scum have been known to breadcrumb roles as well; if the role they breadcrumbed became inconvenient to claim, they simply do not point them out later. Last, an obvious breadcrumb will draw the scum's attention and place that player at the top of the list of players they have an interest in killing overNight." A breadcrumb has bugger all to do with your alignment.
I am aware of that fact. It's about all those things coming together. All those things I've mentioned about him are wifom and could be interpreted as both confused townie (or whatever you want to call it) or a mafia setting this thing up.
The more things we got like that the more likely it is that he actually is a townie imo. It's like a giant puzzle. Sure he could have set this up, sure he could have lied about something else but if you got several things like that I'm going to assume that it's the one conclusion that explains all of those issues without a shitload of other explanations to why he actually did that.
So far it's not enough for me to say he's a townie, maybe a decent breadcrumb would have changed that. I'm just asking myself if he'd do that set-up thing as mafia right now.
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screw this, I'm on BH as well. All that defends BH is wifom and it's not enough to make me think it has to be a townie because the mafia-wifom-cases are not that far fetched. Further more he's going to be an issue the next few days.
It's possible that he's going to flip town in the end but I'd say it's the best lynch we got.
##vote BH
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What about lynching people who aren't even playing this game? I've got a feeling we've been wrong on most of our scummy reads so far and that's why mafia is chilling and not even posting in this thread.
Yeah it's a pretty big assumption but I really don't like people like risk and Chaoser. For all I know those two could very well end up being modkilled. Of course there's no such thing as activity modkill but not voting for someone will still be a modkill and neither of those 2 has voted.
I'd say we lynch one of those 2 if one of them shows up and votes without a reason or just a oneliner the very next day. I don't see a reason to lynch into possible modkills right now so I won't suggest switching votes.
Tyrran and Kita are somewhat the same because they haven't voted yet, they don't post a lot but they do post from time to time. Jackal hasn't voted either but has at least some presence in this thread like Kita and Tyrran and well, he's known for doing this lurkish style and the other ones I've mentioned are more extreme imo.
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from our votingthread:
On February 26 2012 04:47 risk.nuke wrote:
##vote Blazinghand
...
That guy needs to be dead.
Not a mention here, no explanasion, no reasoning, nothing. If risk.nuke ends up being town I'll eat my hat... and the only hat I've got is a big one with feathers and all that shit because of some oktoberfest-like festival.
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On February 26 2012 05:34 DoctorHelvetica wrote:Show nested quote +On February 26 2012 04:48 Toadesstern wrote:
What about lynching people who aren't even playing this game? I've got a feeling we've been wrong on most of our scummy reads so far and that's why mafia is chilling and not even posting in this thread.
Yeah it's a pretty big assumption but I really don't like people like risk and Chaoser. For all I know those two could very well end up being modkilled. Of course there's no such thing as activity modkill but not voting for someone will still be a modkill and neither of those 2 has voted.
I'd say we lynch one of those 2 if one of them shows up and votes without a reason or just a oneliner the very next day. I don't see a reason to lynch into possible modkills right now so I won't suggest switching votes.
Tyrran and Kita are somewhat the same because they haven't voted yet, they don't post a lot but they do post from time to time. Jackal hasn't voted either but has at least some presence in this thread like Kita and Tyrran and well, he's known for doing this lurkish style and the other ones I've mentioned are more extreme imo. So you have no confidence in your reads would you rather just lynch random lurkers instead? Who is "we", the town? You think we've all been wrong? That's discouraging and unhelpful. It doesn't matter if you have "a feeling" that everything is wrong. If you have a feeling that BH or RoL or VE or anything is the wrong lynch then go back, do some reading, and think critically about what's going on. Besides displaying a complete lack of confidence you're not doing anything besides pointing out who is lurking which is something everyone should be aware of, all they'd have to do even is to just see who has or hasn't voted by looking at the voting thread. Your lack of confidence is really alarming to me and I'm not sure yet whether to pin you as town who just got his self-esteem devastated by AC or scum trying to be active without being noticed or controversial.
risk is in this game, he is actually playing and voting, yet he refuses to talk to us. I don't know about Chaoser yet because he still hasn't voted.
Give me a reason why they should refuse to play this game as town? Just a single one. Clearly he's here and is actively lurking. He's not Foolishness who's doing that on purpose to make himself a bad night target and ends up giving us a dead on correct mafia list by the end of day-3. He's not one of the top5 (or whatver) townplayers on TL.net that everyone fears. There is literally no reason to do what he's doing if he's town.
I don't even know why you're talking about my reads and my, according to you, little convidence making me look weird. I never said we should voteswitch yet. I just pointet out that those guys are ACTIVLY playing anti-town. That's it. Why do you have a problem with me pointing that out?
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On February 26 2012 06:08 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
They could be busy. Lurking is not really the same as actively playing anti-town. I don't have a problem with you pointing out lurkers if you're going somewhere with it or trying to pressure them into being more active. I have a problem with you adding doubt to what's happening to town and basically listing lurkers with a ton of fluff. You were right to call out risk.nuke however, I just checked his filter.
Looking at r.n's filter he's offering very little compared to what he had to bring to the table in Arkham City which makes me suspicious. He didn't troll or anything like that in AC and I see a lot of commentary on things not relevant to finding scum when he was pretty serious about that in AC.
Chaoser seems to be totally busy and just uninvolved, I'm inclined to think he's town but he needs to post a lot more as soon as he has the time. Jackal is playing very reservedly which is not totally normal but does not alarm me. The few posts kitaman has made are posts that I'm mostly alright with.
Risk has been sitting in irc for the last couple of days playing irc mafia and bw-mafia instead. Yes if that happens it IS activly lurking and it IS activly playing anti-town.
I agree on Chaoser. That guy seems to be totally busy, he hasn't even posted this cycle so we'll see about this. The chances of him being modkilled are quite high, so no need to talk about him unless he actually comes back voting for someone.
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If I were a vig I'd probably shoot into people like risk, wbg, VE, chaoser, maybe DocH, maybe prplhz, maybe kita.
Just mentioning.
Yeah I know that's a lot of names but all of those people look incredible bad given this flip.
and yeah agree it's pretty likely that there's going to be a scum role like that.
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On February 26 2012 07:13 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Why do we look bad and not
Dirkzor
Jitsu
BloodyC0bbler
what is so special about risk/wbg/ve/chaoser's votes on BH???
risk for willingly playing anti-town.
VE for pushing BC and BH and redFF. BH flipped blue, BC is looking townish to me given the voteswitches on d1 and redFF was the easy guy. Take that + everything I said about him the last couple of days and it's enough for me to shoot that guy if I had a gun.
Chaoser for what I said before about him.
WBG for what I said d1 about him and this whole "everyone not voting BH or RoL from now on has to be considered Mafia" although I agree that could be his ego. Well from time to time it looks like he's trying to buddy me, defending me A LOT every day and than there's those times like yesterday when he talked to me and suddenly made that germany post.
Kita for semi lurking, same as risk he's sitting in irc playing irc-mafia and stuff the last couple of days.
prplhz would probably be the one I'd struck out if I had to struck someone out. It's just still very little he's posting and he's refusing to post unless people ask him about his reads. That doesn't sound townish.
DocH for attacking me all day based on nothing except for "well Toad was doubtcasting". Well duh, the guy flipped blue and I said it's very much possible the guy had a bad start d1 and didn't know what to do.
Yeah it's only 1 phrase per guy but whatever.
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I have no idea. I don't think I ever played with him before and all we got about him is lurking and I'd have to completly trust you on that one. And no I'm not willing to read yet another game just to get a better read on a lurker while a bunch of people in here don't even feel obligated to get in here and post at least once per day while playing something else.
I was trusting you the beginning of d2 because you looked pretty townish and yeah I'll admit I was sheeping you guys because everyone said that's nothing like he ever does as town because there were so many vets saying that it looks weird. You guys could be right there, I have no idea I'll leave that guy out for now and ignore him trying to get some reads on people I actually played with before.
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On February 26 2012 07:28 risk.nuke wrote:
Toad, you don't know the meaning of lurking (see katrina in Arkham) and you have created your own meaning for what playing anti-town is.
As a townie it's your goal to make sure everyone sees that you are in fact a townie. That's the one most important thing about townies.
You are not willing to help us figure out what alignment you have. Yes that IS playing anti-town.
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oh and btw:
On February 25 2012 12:10 DoctorHelvetica wrote:Show nested quote +On February 25 2012 12:08 Toadesstern wrote:On February 25 2012 12:00 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On February 25 2012 11:56 Toadesstern wrote:On February 25 2012 10:14 wherebugsgo wrote:
I feel you Toad; I said the exact same thing about VE earlier.
Generally though if someone is exhibiting both tells I just ignore them until I'm forced to deal with them. BH is nothing but scum and RoL is nothing but lurk so it's easy killings either way. the sad part here is that I'm not getting out here alive no matter what's going to happen, because it's the very same situation we had in L d1 with Palmar. If BH flips town and I keep my vote off him everyone is going to rant about me "how does that noob have a better read than a fantastillion of our best vets?" If BH flips mafa and I keep my vote off him everyone is going to rant about me because I was "defending" him. If BH flips town and I vote him everyone is going to rant about me "how does that noob have a better read than a fantastillion of our best vets?" If BH flips mafia and I vote vote him everyone is going to rant about how I only voteswitched after I had to. Sad story, isn't it?  However, I'm going to rethink this whole thing when I wake up tomorrow. Should be plenty of time. For now I'm sticking with RoL. You seem to care an awful lot about how town perceives you yeah because believe or not, I don't want to be lynched no matter if I rolled mafia or town. Because in both scenarios being lynched is not helping my team. So what you're telling me is that you successfully figured out I'm not a VI? But that's of course wifom. I could totally be a VI trying to look pro-town to try and look like I don't want to be lynched. That would be so ingenious. Just imagine the faces of the people: "We're totally lynching that pro-town playing guy ololol" and the moment I flip VI they're all like W T F. + Show Spoiler +Just for clarification: Yes parts of this posts were sarcasm and are not meant to be taken seriously + Show Spoiler + if you think BH is scum then vote for him if you're town you're the last person who would get lynched if he flipped town, the fact that you're worried enough about town perspective on your own guilt to vote based on that openly is highly suspicious
told you there's going to be some morons who want to get me lynched for that, funny you saidif you're town you're the last person who would get lynched if he flipped town,
and yet you're telling people that I'm looking incredible bad. Tyrran is probably just bad himself but what about you?
Anyways I'm going to play some Zelda for now, need some de-stressing or I'll pull a wbg on you guys.
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On February 26 2012 08:45 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
I don't understand what you are saying. I have never said you are more suspicious based on the fact that BH flipped town. I said you were suspicious by being so aware of it or concerned about it. Your play is completely defensive and seems to me based around how town views you rather than how you look for scum.
Your 1st point:
I am sorry I thought the guy might flip town and posted that. Next time I pick something like that up I'm just going to ignore it, lynch the guy although I think he has a decent chance of flipping green (or in this case blue) and make sure noone talks about alternatives. Is that what you want from me to do / the reason you think I am scummy? Really?
+ Show Spoiler +Yes that was sarcasm, again. I'm not going to do that.
On to your 2nd point:
That's a straight up lie. My play is not defensive. Yes I tried to start this game a little slower not fosing everyone I had a scumread early on but instead waited to see how these things are developing when left unmentioned. However I called out several people. In fact I just gave a list of people who are imo highly suspicious right now either because of what they did earlier or because of the flip or because of both. How is that not looking for scum? And yeah I already mentioned I am paying attention to how everyone here views me because again, looking town and being open about your thoughts is the most important thing townies have to do because if you end up being lynched for lurking that's entirely your fault. Something people like risk.nuke apparently haven't understood and also something you (and Tyrran) call me suspicious for.
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On February 26 2012 09:14 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Why did you vote for BH if you thought he had a decent chance instead of people you thought were scum like RN or Chaoser. It's classic bet hedging. There is absolutely nothing wrong with acknowledging that he might flip town, I did that too. So did other people. You talking about alternatives also isn't scummy and I never said it was. Now you're defending yourself against shit I'm not saying and never said, the implicit guilt is just oozing out.
let's see this again:
On February 26 2012 08:45 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
I said you were suspicious by being so aware of it or concerned about it. .
So what do you mean by "being so concerned about it" if it's not me talking about about how I think the guy might end up being a confused townie? Because if I interpreted that one wrong my bad, but I can't think of another meaning on that part.
And I voted BH because I thought he's still a coinflip and is most like not going to be easier to read with this huge wagon we had on him while the other coinflips I got are all some people I think I'm capable to read better in near future.
There was noone in this thread, I pointet out a couple of guys roughly an hour before the deadline and also before that and it wasn't enough time to get someone else lynched. I would have loved to get risk lynched but it just wasn't possible given that noone's actually here.
Also another last minute voteswitch would have been pretty chaotic for town again, like the one we did on d1 with BC and got back to redFF after people like BH and risk started posting about BC. Town needed some stability and a (imo) coinflip was still a good enough option for that one.
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On February 26 2012 10:07 wherebugsgo wrote:
We should 100% kill RoL if he is alive by morning.
He's continually promised more and his promise of more was just a shitty case on Dr. H.
Right now I'm fairly tired of reading and/or responding to retarded posts that I pretty much know are being made by townies, since it's just a waste of time. So from now on I'm just going to ignore that stuff and focus on things I find scummy.
are you at least telling me if that's me, DocH or Tyrran you're referring to if you're not willing to talk about it?
What are you suggesting we do with people like Risk and Chaoser? Clearly they have no interest in proving that they're town.
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On February 26 2012 10:31 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 26 2012 10:25 Toadesstern wrote:On February 26 2012 10:07 wherebugsgo wrote:
We should 100% kill RoL if he is alive by morning.
He's continually promised more and his promise of more was just a shitty case on Dr. H.
Right now I'm fairly tired of reading and/or responding to retarded posts that I pretty much know are being made by townies, since it's just a waste of time. So from now on I'm just going to ignore that stuff and focus on things I find scummy. are you at least telling me if that's me, DocH or Tyrran you're referring to if you're not willing to talk about it? What are you suggesting we do with people like Risk and Chaoser? Clearly they have no interest in proving that they're town. half of your posts are not worth responding to, ones like this are okay. I'm fine with killing chaoser, but risk.nuke I'm not so sure about because he's done some weird things that I don't think a scum would do. I think he's one of the dumber townies.
Why are you okay with killing chaoser but not risk?
Chaoser said he was busy and will start posting soon (tm) while risk is doing that on purpose.
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On February 26 2012 10:40 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 26 2012 10:38 Toadesstern wrote:On February 26 2012 10:31 wherebugsgo wrote:On February 26 2012 10:25 Toadesstern wrote:On February 26 2012 10:07 wherebugsgo wrote:
We should 100% kill RoL if he is alive by morning.
He's continually promised more and his promise of more was just a shitty case on Dr. H.
Right now I'm fairly tired of reading and/or responding to retarded posts that I pretty much know are being made by townies, since it's just a waste of time. So from now on I'm just going to ignore that stuff and focus on things I find scummy. are you at least telling me if that's me, DocH or Tyrran you're referring to if you're not willing to talk about it? What are you suggesting we do with people like Risk and Chaoser? Clearly they have no interest in proving that they're town. half of your posts are not worth responding to, ones like this are okay. I'm fine with killing chaoser, but risk.nuke I'm not so sure about because he's done some weird things that I don't think a scum would do. I think he's one of the dumber townies. Why are you okay with killing chaoser but not risk? Chaoser said he was busy and will start posting soon ( tm) while risk is doing that on purpose. replace "chaoser" with RoL and tell me why we shouldn't kill him.
Never said we should ignore him. I'm justs not mentioning him because I never played with him and therefore don't know what he's usually playing like.
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On February 26 2012 10:48 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 26 2012 10:43 Toadesstern wrote:On February 26 2012 10:40 wherebugsgo wrote:On February 26 2012 10:38 Toadesstern wrote:On February 26 2012 10:31 wherebugsgo wrote:On February 26 2012 10:25 Toadesstern wrote:On February 26 2012 10:07 wherebugsgo wrote:
We should 100% kill RoL if he is alive by morning.
He's continually promised more and his promise of more was just a shitty case on Dr. H.
Right now I'm fairly tired of reading and/or responding to retarded posts that I pretty much know are being made by townies, since it's just a waste of time. So from now on I'm just going to ignore that stuff and focus on things I find scummy. are you at least telling me if that's me, DocH or Tyrran you're referring to if you're not willing to talk about it? What are you suggesting we do with people like Risk and Chaoser? Clearly they have no interest in proving that they're town. half of your posts are not worth responding to, ones like this are okay. I'm fine with killing chaoser, but risk.nuke I'm not so sure about because he's done some weird things that I don't think a scum would do. I think he's one of the dumber townies. Why are you okay with killing chaoser but not risk? Chaoser said he was busy and will start posting soon ( tm) while risk is doing that on purpose. replace "chaoser" with RoL and tell me why we shouldn't kill him. Never said we should ignore him. I'm justs not mentioning him because I never played with him and therefore don't know what he's usually playing like. anyway here's what I want you to do: read risk's filter, and tell me what you find in there that shows you that he's scum.
Nothing because there's not much in there. There's also nothing that makes him look townish. Leaves us with a nullread who refuses to play protown. Yes I am very much willing to lynch people who refuse to play this game and / or refuse to play protown if it's apparent that it's not lack of time that's getting in the way.
That's btw the reason I'd have done that one:
On February 26 2012 10:31 wherebugsgo wrote:
I'm fine with killing chaoser, but risk.nuke I'm not so sure about.
the other way around.
Yes I know you are referring to his posts like the one if the giv and the fact that he is playing boldly. Remember what you said in the little discussion about my claim in AC a couple days ago when I said that's something a mafia player would not do? You said that's wifom becaus there are players that would take the risk to get shot by CW as mafia knowing that it will look townish. How is it that you think that's possible but at the same time think that just because of posts like the one with that gif you think he has to be town?
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I'm still here but apparently I post to much according to wbg so I'm active-lurking now as well ❤
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EPT
