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On February 04 2012 06:00 prplhz wrote:
@TheToast You don't feel like responding to my complaint that you're using the same arguments for me being scum as for Timeasis being town?
Nope. I've made my points clear and I think some of your posts speak for themselves. No point in responding to you further, you are just going to turn them back on me with absurd arguments to further muddy the waters.
Since we are lynching either Timeasis or [UoN]Sentinel tonight
I'm unsure where you have gotten this assumption that one of the two is getting lynched. This smells like scummy railroading.
If you want to lynch Timeasis, you are going to need my vote, which you are not going to get.
Bluelightz earlier defense of Sentinel made it pretty clear he wouldn't be voting for him. So if you want to lynch Sentinel, you are going to need both Vilonis and BaronFel to switch over. It seems unlikely to me that you are going to get BaronFel given how much of a lurker he's been. In that likely situation, you are again going to need my vote.
Unless someone can come up with some really convincing arguments or analysis against Sentinel in the next few hours I'm not sure you will be voting for him either. I'd prefer to lynch day 1, but I would rather see a no lynch instead of a townie lynched.
The fact that we are being forced into picking from Sentinel or Timeasis when prplhz and bluelightz are oozing scummy-ness (something to which several people in this thread have agreed to) has me pretty worried.
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@EchelonTee sorry I was writing that post for a while and didn't see your question for me. (thread moving too fast grr!)
In the same post where I put up the analysis for Bluelights I said that I wasn't 100% sure about Sentinel and that's why I was preferring to lynch bluelightz day 1. I did say that I would be willing to switch to Sentinel, but now I'm not so sure about that. I want to wait and see what else comes up in the next few hours.
You're right, maybe my analysis of prplhz wasn't rock solid, I'm still convinced he's scum but maybe I need to do a bit more in depth analysis to make that point. But I'm thinking we at least agree on Bluelightz, as does Timeaisis. So why aren't we looking at this guy for a D1 lynch??
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Shit.
The more posts I read of Sentinel's the more I am convinced he is not under the control of the warp-spawn.
This all started on Page 6 where he posted the following:
On February 02 2012 20:31 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:Show nested quote +
We should kill the first night, and I should say who dies. Day 1 in a unique time because no one not you, me, or the Chaos scum knows who anyone else is yet. Anyone's guess is as good as random, and random buys us exactly 25% right now. Since our odds are only going to get worse from here, I say we take them. I will use a random number generator to decide which of this crew is executed.
I'm sold. ##Vote: Sinensis
and to whic Nisani responded with the following:
On February 03 2012 01:29 Nisani201 wrote:
You guys make this too easy.
##Vote: [UoN]Sentinel
When questioned by mdreg as to why he just voted Sentinel Nisani had the following reason:
On February 03 2012 01:52 Nisani201 wrote:
Sinensis is not scum. prplhz started the bandwagon but Sentinel moved it forward. If he's not scum then it's probably prplhz or someone else on the bandwagon.
First of all, Bluelightz was the first to call out Sinesis, then prplhz jumped on him, then followed by Sentinels vote and post of "I'm sold".
At this point, to me he's looking likely a bad town player and there is no reason to suspect he is chaos-y scum. Even Nisani admitted here it could just as easily have been prplhz.
The next mention of Sentinel as scum came from Sinesis, when I prompted him to list his thoughts:
On February 03 2012 04:51 Sinensis wrote:
FoS: Sentinel
FoS: prplhz
FoS: Bluelightz
For throwing their votes around before the rest of anyone even had a chance to say something. prplhz's posting is cryptic/suspicious in general in my opinion. Sentinel for a bandwagon vote. Bluelightz because he's extremely indecisive with his vote so far, though it could be he's just indecisive, being indecisive with your vote isn't going to get us a win.
I'm curious what EchelonTee sees in Timeaisis.
Nisani201 seems to share similar suspicions as me.
TheToast's agenda seems loyal to the Emperor.
That is all for now.
Basically his was the same reasoning as Nisani, Sentinel because he jumped on the anti-Sinesis bandwagon. Again this proves nothing in terms of him being chaos.
Next evidence came from mdreg's analysis of Sentinel, which was in response to Sentinel's defense of himself:
On February 03 2012 06:16 mderg wrote:Show nested quote +On February 03 2012 05:45 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
I'm back.
I have a history of voting for people who fluff. My primary reason being that they're derailing the discussion and possibly doing it on behalf of scumteam, but also because, at least in the beginning, these are the kind of people impeding progress anyway.
Like if there's 7 of us left with 2 mafia and 5 towns, I wouldn't advocate a lynch like that because we need all the votes and information we can get to lynch the right people, as if we lynch a random townie we won't get his power (if blue) and the next day it's 3 townies and 2 mafia left. lynch or lose that day, then the next there's 2 towns and 1 mafia, another lynch or lose.
Right now however it's not that drastic. It's 9 on 3. Best case scenario we lynch the right person, mafia kills one of us and it's 8 on 2. Much more favorable odds. Even better if the doc manages to bring that up to 9 on 2.
Worst case scenario it's 7 on 3, townie lynched and townie shot. This is pretty bad, but unless we lynch the vigilante then we can still pull out with a well-placed bullet. I don't like this scenario, but accidents do happen.
Pretty much every plan I can think of in my semi-awake state gets blocked by that damn hedonist. I think I'll take a nap and then get back to this. Did I understand it right that the day 1 lynch isn´t as important to you as other lynches? This can give scum a good opportunity to vote without proper reason... and that´s not what we want. Also I don´t like how you just assume there´s a Vigilante and a Hedonist in this game. The setup is semi-open, so we can´t be sure about that. Especially "knowing" about a Hedonist in the game indicates that you might be scum... a town player shouldn´t know that.These are minor aspects off your play and don´t mean you´re scum, but right now you´re my top suspect. Along with the easily following the votes on Sinensis it justifies a vote from me. ##Vote: [UoN]Sentinel
The point about Day 1 is null, many people comonly believe that Day 1 isn't very useful as blue's haven't had the chance to use their abilities. In itself this means nothing.
Important item here is mdreg's point about how Sentinel assumes there is a Vigilante and a Hedonist in the game. Is that really so suspicious? Is someone really scum because they assume there is a Vigilante and a framer in the game? His post was certainly strange, and didn't make a whole lot of sense. But again, that could simply point to bad town player.
Next came Timeaisis:
On February 03 2012 06:20 Timeaisis wrote:
Right now, Sentinel and prphlz are my two. Especially since Sentinel seems to be more active of late, mderg's recent post, and Sinensis' recent find on prplhz (which I think is pretty reasonable).
But since we have a vote rolling for Sentinel, that's the way I'm going.
##Vote: [UoN]Sentinel
So in other words Timeasis made his decision on Sentinel because he's posting more than prphlz and from mderg's suspicion. This is not a reasonable conclusion of scummyness. As stated, mderg's vote on Sentinel was based on the fact that he assumed there is a Vigilante and Framer in game. Neither of these things mean anything.
Sentinel responded with the following:
On February 03 2012 06:29 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
For blue roles, I'm just assuming that. There's 9 citizens, I'm betting 3 of those are out there, maybe 4 if we're lucky. If you go check bluelights, he actually went as far as to say "1 of each role, 1 of each scum but the hedonist, and 5 townies." I'm wondering why you didn't say anything about that. Assuming there's 1 of each except for the hedonist (a 25% chance, there are 4 possible permutations if no scumrole is doubled) is a bit more scummy than assuming scum has a hedonist (75% chance by same prediction).
This seems pretty reasonable to me. 3 roles out of 9 townies seems normal, and to have one of those as a Vigilante seems again completely normal. I don't see how this condems him to scumhood.
Then Sinesis chimed in with a well thought out analysis:
On February 03 2012 09:48 Sinensis wrote:
Yes I have backed off random voting because no one was for it. I said when I proposed all of my ideas that they were up for debate/criticism/modification, that I was just trying to talk strategy. Then people started voting me.
##Vote: [UoN]Sentinel
Wait, where was the analysis again?
So at this point we have a number of votes against Sentinel with NO good evidence that he is actually scum.
There are only TWO things left for me that make me suspecios of Sentinel.
-First as I mentioned before here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=306452¤tpage=9#176
Bluelightz aimlessly going to bat for Sentinel and "analyzing" the people who voted for him is strange. He gives no reason for it, give no reason for not analyzing Sentinel and instead going after the people who voted for him. As I mentioned before, however, this is circumstantial evidence. Bluelightz could have just been screwing with us.
-Second thing is his fixation on Timeaisis.
On February 03 2012 09:48 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:Show nested quote +On February 03 2012 09:43 Timeaisis wrote:On February 03 2012 08:47 EchelonTee wrote:On February 03 2012 02:28 Timeaisis wrote:
Yeah, that may be true. Those who start the bandwagon are seeming a little more scummy to me right now. Bluelightz voted for Sinensis but unvoted before people started pointing fingers (except for him). That leaves prplhz who pretty much started the "lynch Sinensis" thing. So right now I'm leaning between voting for prplhz or Sinensis, because they both seem a little suspicious.
On another note, Sinensis has 4 votes (if I counted correctly), I mean unless people retract in the next couple posts. Still not voting yet, though... So you think Sinensis is supicious for... you don't mention why actually, alright whatever. But you are suspicious of prplhz for starting a motion against someone you find supicious? Should you not be supportive of this move? As far as I'm concernced, prplhz and Sinensis are on opposite sides, at least ideologically if not red/green. Don't see how you can be suspicous of both when you posted this. On February 03 2012 03:31 Timeaisis wrote:
Well prphlz and you are tied for most suspicious in my mind. Just saying. Ok, you still are against them, ok consistency at least- On February 03 2012 06:20 Timeaisis wrote:
Right now, Sentinel and prphlz are my two. Especially since Sentinel seems to be more active of late, mderg's recent post, and Sinensis' recent find on prplhz (which I think is pretty reasonable).
But since we have a vote rolling for Sentinel, that's the way I'm going.
##Vote: [UoN]Sentinel Wait what da faq? 3 hours later you're on sentinel. But why? Oh right, there's a vote rolling on sentinel, that's your "reasoning". You realize, this is commonly known as bandwagoning. Care to consolidate your opinions? Well, regarding your last part. Three hours later, yeah, I'm on someone else because frankly, Sinensis has been acting less and less scummy since his initail "RNG lynch" idea. And throughout further review on my part, Sentinel seems to have it out for some people regardless of what they say. I'm simply trying to move this along, because both prplhz and Sentinel have seemed hositle and or scummy in the past 3-4 posts. Since Sinensis seems to be making a reasonable claim against prplhz and mderg's opinions about Sentil make good sense to me. So no, I'm not "changing my vote", I just think, due to recent events, Sentinel seems more of a threat than Sinensis and prplhz right now. So, yeah, call me "bandwagoning" or whatever. I'm voting for someone who I think is scum due to someone else's (mderg's) reasing, who, honestly, has had the only pretty reasonable piece of evidence against someone in this entire game. So yeah, I'm still voting for Sentinel. And you're defense of Sentinel is starting to make you look like you know something the rest of us don't... Woke up. I thought I would be guillotined by this time but apparently so far nobody else has voted for me. Voting because someone else said so is not a good policy. You should at least justify why you think his is the only reasonable evidence when I clearly addressed and refuted his every point. Sinensis is turning slightly greener for me, but your actions thus far have just been a giant WTF for me. So until then, ##Vote: Timeaisis
Seems that this is a retribution vote. "You voted me so now I'm going to vote you". Seems strange, but again does not really prove he is scum. Circumstantial evidence again.
Given this, I really don't see myself voting Sentinel. The case against him is weak, and Bluelightz is again the most confirmed scum in my book.
I am not changing my vote.
Just f-5ed and it looks like prplhz agrees with me. Didn't expect that, but evidence is what evidence is and there is none here.
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On February 04 2012 09:15 sinani206 wrote:OK, I don't think you people understand. Get your fucking votes on Sentinel or Timeasis. We can't risk a NL on Day 1. In case you don't understand, Show nested quote +This game uses Extended Majority Lynch. That is, at the deadline the player with a majority of votes is lynched (majority = 1/2 the remaining players, rounded down + 1), if no one has a majority then no lynch will take place. THIS MEANS YOU: Bluelightz
Vilonis
TheToast
BaronFel
mdergAlso @prplhz: lol
Nope, I'm good right where I am. Timeaisis or Sentinel may be scum, but I don't think there is enough evidence against either one.
Since you all seem to have rejected the logic of my plan, I hope you all get really lucky.
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Sinensis your vote didn't get changed. I think you need to bold it.
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On February 04 2012 10:33 Bluelightz wrote:
Even though I hate last minute vote switching I guess to make sure we have a lynch d1.
##Unvote: mderg
##Vote: Timeaisis
Let's have a look at the vote tallies as of right now:
On February 02 2012 08:11 ZBot wrote:
Votecount for day 1. With twelve alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Current votes:
Timeaisis (7): [UoN]Sentinel, EchelonTee, prplhz, BaronFel, Nisani201, Vilonis, mderg
Bluelightz (3): TheToast, Timeaisis, Sinensis
mderg (1): Bluelightz
[UoN]Sentinel (1): Nisani201, mderg, Timeaisis, Sinensis, sinani206, -mderg, -Nisani201, -Sinensis, -Timeaisis
Nisani201 (0): Vilonis, -Vilonis
sinani206 (0): prplhz, -prplhz
Vilonis (0): Timeaisis, -Timeaisis
prplhz (0): Sinensis, -Sinensis
Sinensis (0): Bluelightz, -Bluelightz, prplhz, [UoN]Sentinel, Bluelightz, BaronFel, -Bluelightz, -[UoN]Sentinel, -prplhz, -BaronFel
Not voting:
The Day deadline is at 2012-02-04 12:00:00. (That's approximately 1:28:34 from now.)
Let's assume that we are all right about Sinesis and that he is in fact not mafia. That leaves only three conclusions possible at this point:
1: I am Mafia.
2: Mafia is voting for one of their own
3: You all are wrong about Timeaisis
I suppose that #2 is possible, they have decided that by piling on top of time the remaining two can go unseen. But since at this exact moment it would only take one of them to change their votes to save Time, I find this unlikely.
However I sure hope it's #2, because #3 is looking really likely right now...
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Sorry, I suppose it would take both the remaining mafia members to change their votes to save Time, I still think they would do it though.
On February 04 2012 10:36 Sinensis wrote:
You guys are about to kill a townie just because prplhz said "Well it's obviously Sentinel or Timeaisis"
This is so obvious.
I'm thinking this is very likely the case.
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On February 04 2012 10:40 Sinensis wrote:
Imbeciles.
Unless we were wrong about you, in which case Mafia already has pulled one vote off Time.
Either way I guess we will find out in an hour or so as it doesn't look like anyone else is going to budge. Not sure what sinani is doing either.
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Well unless we have a good priest/medic, I'm dead tonight.
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On February 04 2012 12:11 EchelonTee wrote:Show nested quote +On February 04 2012 12:06 prplhz wrote:
@EchelonTee What do you think about TheToast? Was null leaning green, I don't know why he posted that right after the day post though. you?
Because I was right all along and it's in Mafia's best interest to get rid of the person whose on the right track.
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On February 04 2012 12:16 prplhz wrote:
I'm uneasy about how he's refusing to address how I pointed out that he was using the same arguments for Timeaisis being town as for me being scum. Also his early game is a lot of throwing suspicion around and no committing.
Pretty much, Timeaisis was the most logical case there was.
Student Mafia was on 27 pages at day1 lynch, dunno why this is so much slower. BaronFel and Vilonis and sinani206 and Nisani201 all need to post more.
Most logical? Being that the case was WRONG I find that hard to believe. Especially since Bluelightz has been screaming scum from page 5. Seeing you constantly making these bizzare statements is absurd. You were wrong, I was right. If you are not scum you must be one of the worst town players in this game.
But that is not the case. No the warp spawn have you in their control. Your sole has been lost in the endless sea of flux, your heart corrupted by the power of the chaos gods. By the emperor I will see you and bluelights lynched for your heresy!!!
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On February 04 2012 12:30 EchelonTee wrote:Show nested quote +On February 04 2012 12:16 prplhz wrote:
I'm uneasy about how he's refusing to address how I pointed out that he was using the same arguments for Timeaisis being town as for me being scum. Also his early game is a lot of throwing suspicion around and no committing.
Pretty much, Timeaisis was the most logical case there was.
Student Mafia was on 27 pages at day1 lynch, dunno why this is so much slower. BaronFel and Vilonis and sinani206 and Nisani201 all need to post more. There were a few flags for me, like this post; it seems sort of precognitive, if you know what I mean. and his very unclear opinion on sinani. Speaking of which, @Toast what do you think about sinani? Be back in a few. EVERYONE TALK MOAR NOW YOU DONT KNOW IF IT WILL BE YOUR LAST GASP
Are you accusing me of being able to see into the future? O.o
I've been thinking sinani is town, but vote selection has me wondering. When he switched his vote, Time had 8 votes against him already. It was also done at the 11th hour (I think there was maybe 20 minutes left?) and therefore it unlikely that two other votes would be changed; the number needed to stop the lynching of Time. That means means Sinani could easily have thrown his vote onto a Mafia just to keep suspicion off of him. A combination of options #2 and #3 that I listed in the post you linked. Then again he could also just be lurking (for good reason).
Either way, I don't think there is enough evidence against Sinani to make a definite call one way or the other. At least not yet. For the moment I think we should proceed as though he were town, but with some suspicion on him.
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On February 04 2012 14:17 Bluelightz wrote:Sorry Time  , Hope we can be friends later on >.<
The Lynch: There was 8 people voting Time and 4 people voting Me. From this, there was atleast 1 mafia voting Time. Timeaisis (8): [UoN]Sentinel, EchelonTee, prplhz, BaronFel, Nisani201, Vilonis, mderg, Bluelightz
Why are you writing this? What's your motivation here? Obviously there was at least one mafia voting Time, it was you lol.
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Okay, going to do this now since I think there is a good chance I'm dead tonight.
prplhz is scum, no question.
For right now I'm going to ignore his strange early vote against Sinani. prplhz claimed it was a "joke vote". Maybe it was, idk. But it could also be that he is using that to cover up a very early and very bad attempt to start a bandwagon. Either way this is not in itself good evidence IMO (a later statement about this does though, so I will come back to this)
What does add up to evidence against him, IMO is his constant short pointless posts that seemed to constantly be pushing town in the wrong direction. First of these was very early D1:
On February 02 2012 19:53 prplhz wrote:
We're lynching today.
Are we? No explanation as to why, no analysis of the setup or why it's in our best interest? With all things being the same, D1 lynch benefits mafia. With good analysis town can turn this into their favor. Doesn't prove anything, but made me suspicious early on.
On February 02 2012 20:23 prplhz wrote:
##Unvote: sinani206
##Vote: Sinensis
He's talking about no-lynching and he's making stupid lists. Rest is fluff. I think we found ourselves a scum here and I guess sinani206 will have to wait. [/b][/b]
The second person to get the bandwagon moving against Sinesis. Take a look at the second half of this post though. "sinani206 will have to wait" Will have to wait? This doesn't sound like someone who was making a joke post. If it was a joke, why not say "lol, I was just joking about Sinani"?? Or "Sinani isn't really scum IMO, just joking"?? His choice of word here to me indicates that he was earlier quiet serious about Sinani. My guess is that there was some disagreement among the scum. prplhz likely wanted to take out Sinani early as he is a vet scum hunter (a good move) but then bluelightz decided Sinesis was the better tartget; forcing prplhz into backing Bluelightz to avoid looking completely scummy from page 5. (I imagine there were some angry and hilarious PMs flooding between these two lol)
His reasoning here was also strange. Bluelightz at least added a bunch of fluff to make it look like he was analyzing Sinesis, prplhz didn't even do that. He's didn't even make any lists at this point. Sinesis was also advocating against a no-lynch, I have no idea what prplhz was talking about here; likely a terrible attempt to get the members of town who didn't read Sinesis's posts clearly to bandwagon (which unbelievably worked).
On February 02 2012 20:33 prplhz wrote:
You're dead, scum.
Now if you want to talk fluff... This to me is a dead giveaway of someone trying to start a bandwagon on a townie. No analysis, no quotes, just a one liner intended to try to focus the attention of non-critical townies. Why would you even post this? What's the point here? At this point there had been <10 posts discussing why Sinesis might be scum, was prplhz really that terribly convinced by those few short posts? Would a vet really fall into that trap??
On February 03 2012 12:53 prplhz wrote:
I'm gonna post more tomorrow. My two first posts were primarily meant to get this game started fast so I posted semi-controversial things. I'm surprised no one went more crazy over my first post where I joke-voted, people usually go crazy about that. The second vote got people going though, keep it relevant and transparent, but most important of all, keep it coming.
I don't think that sinani206, Nisani201 and I should be treated any differently from the rest of you. We may have played a lot of games but I doubt any of us would argue that we're too awesome at this game. We don't go around ravishing scum teams on a regular basis at all. What you should expect of us is that we will act logical and coherent, but you should expect this from anybody in this game.
@sinani206 Do you truly believe any of that nonsense you just posted about me?
Here's where the "joke vote" claim came in that I was discussing before. This was after Sinani called him out on page 9 and after a few people listed him as suspicious. The "I'll post more later" is a typical tactic of someone who is backed into a corner and isn't sure how to get out.
I'm not sure what point he's trying to make with this "controversial" claim. This is essentially like saying "To move the game along I just posted a bunch of pointless stupid shit", which makes no sense given that one of the goals of town is to avoid muddying the waters with garbage. Either this makes him a really terrible townie, which I find hard to believe since he is a bit of a vet, or more likely he is scum (whose goal is to intentionally muddy the waters).
After I made my argument against Bluelightz and defense of Timeaisis at the bottom of page 9, prphlz comes back with this quip:
On February 04 2012 04:06 prplhz wrote:
EchelonTee is making a lot of sense. TheToast isn't.
##Unvote: Sinensis
##Vote: Timeasis
Since lynch is tonight everybody should vote Timeasis so we can lynch scum.
Analysis of my argument??? Analysis of ET's argument???? NOPE!!!!! "we need to lynch someone so kill Time. Really? No thoughts on this at all? Why are you so sure it's a good idea to kill Time? Why are you so intent on lynching someone based on one short analysis of someone?? I called him out about this very thing and he responded as such:
On February 04 2012 04:38 prplhz wrote:
On February 04 2012 02:36 TheToast wrote:Show nested quote +On February 04 2012 02:25 mderg wrote:On February 02 2012 13:52 Timeaisis wrote:
Agreed. On February 02 2012 15:50 Timeaisis wrote:
I agree. On February 03 2012 06:20 Timeaisis wrote:
But since we have a vote rolling for Sentinel, that's the way I'm going.
On February 03 2012 06:37 Timeaisis wrote:
And yeah, I agree with mderg that you are probably scum. This also seems odd to me. You agreed with others and went with the flow quite often. This might indicate a lack of interest to bring in much of your own thoughts, something I see more on the scummy side. Doesn´t make you scum but: FoS: Timeaisis I highly doubt that Timeaisis is scum. First is the fact that he is a first time Mafia, GM is not the kind of host that would put a first time player on scumteam. Very quick way for the game to be over.
No. Do you really want me to argue against this? First, this is purely speculation since you don't know if GMarshal balanced the game or not. Second, there are tons of first gamers in this game (mderg, Vilonis, BaronFel, Sinensis, Timeasis) you don't think any of those can be scum? Third, these games tend to be town favored, if he stacked either side he would probably be stacking town but again, this is purely speculation.
On February 04 2012 02:36 TheToast wrote:
His vote against Vilonis also tips me off that he is townie, Mafia would not want to draw extra attention to themselves like that. First time Mafia also tend to want to lurk to avoid causing any suspecion. Also his current vote is on Sentinel. Most of us seem to be in agreement that there is a good chance Sentinel is scum, a view I hope you would support since that's who you have voted. Mafia (epsecially first time Mafia) are not going to jump onto the bandwagon of one of their own. His analysis is not very good. Going with the flow does not indicate scummyness, actually probably the oposite.
First of all, this is all WIFOM and speculation, you don't know how Timeasis plays scum. Also, it is plain wrong, Timeasis didn't try to stick out at all in my opinion, he didn't push any lynches or post anyooks kinda like you're depsperately tryithing controversial. You also say that Mafia tend to lurk, while you said here that you don't think sinani206 is scum, because scum don't lurk. Seems like you're just making stuff up on the fly.
On February 04 2012 02:36 TheToast wrote:
Focus on the people we have good analysis against so far; Sentinel and Bluelightz. Whoever the third person is, I am willing to bet they are more of a Vet. There are a few people who have so far been playing too perfectly, I don't want to call anyone out yet before we have good evidence as I don't want to risk a townie getting bandwagoned. But there are a few people we need to focus on to get more information from. Take a look, I think you will see the people I am talking about.
Can you link me that good analysis against [UoN]Sentinel and against Bluelightz? I saw a pretty bad analysis on Bluelightz accompanied by a pretty bad push where you say that you'll vote [UoN]Sentinel anyway. We're lynching Timeasis today.
As for the no-lynch v. lynch discussion, I will always prefer lynch over no lynch, unless we're lynching a confirmed town. This is alignment independent for me and we can discuss it post game if you want to. But I never said that, I say that we should lynch Timeasis because he is scum, not because I prefer lynching "someone" over no-one so you're kinda putting words in my mouth now aren't you?
Why does my bizarre behavior early on make me scum? Didn't you also just say in your defense of Timeasis that scum don't generally try to attract attention to themselves early on.
It seems to me like you're making stuff up on the fly to fit with whatever you've decided to believe. You should stop this.[/QUOTE]
First thing; the number of spelling mistakes and broken BBcode tags in this post suggest to me that it was rather hastily assembled (something we don't see in any of his other posts). Nervous maybe that he just made a huge slip up?
I'll admit, he was right about the first point. I mistakenly believed this game was balanced.
His second point is interesting "you don't know how he plays scum". My argument was basically that a first time Mafia player is likely to lurk more and be less outspoken. A fair assumption, and something that most Mafia guides support. He also twisted my point about Sinani. I said Sinani was likely town because as a VET player, he would know that when Mafia lurks they tend to lose. As a NEW player, Time would likely not understand that too well. prphlz is also a vet, he knows exactly what I was talking about, such a blatant attempt to (badly) twist my point is a good tell for me.
His last point is a wash for me, I did what I think was a pretty decent analysis of Bluelightz and brought up some good points. Disagreeing with that doesn't necessarily make him scum IMO.
I think I have already covered his last point about his early vote decently.
On February 04 2012 05:16 prplhz wrote:
@Timeasis You don't lynch someone just because there isn't an elaborate defense of them. I think EchelonTee pointed out a lot of good points about you and I already found you scummy for those and additional reasons which is why I am pushing you.
His persistence against Time is interesting now that we know Time was town, but then again a good chunk of town voted for Time too based on ET's short argument, so this itself does not prove anything.
On February 04 2012 06:00 prplhz wrote:
@TheToast You don't feel like responding to my complaint that you're using the same arguments for me being scum as for Timeasis being town?
Since we are lynching either Timeasis or [UoN]Sentinel tonight people need to start voting for one of these.
Here's a good one. His last statement, in retrospect, does seem awfully like railroading doesn't it? Who made him the ultimate vote decider? I'm not sure where he got this idea that was using the same argument for Time being town as prphlz for being scum. What was my argument against prphlz? Let's take a look:
+ Show Spoiler +On February 04 2012 04:12 TheToast wrote:Show nested quote +On February 04 2012 04:06 prplhz wrote:
EchelonTee is making a lot of sense. TheToast isn't.
##Unvote: Sinensis
##Vote: Timeasis
Since lynch is tonight everybody should vote Timeasis so we can lynch scum. That's exactly what I was waiting for. The level of analysis here is positively staggering. I love how effectively you responded to all of my points about Timeaisis. [/sarcasm] This is a bandwagoning if I've ever seen one. Where's your analysis of Timeasis or Et's post? Why is lynching "someone" better than lynching no one? So many votes are already on Sentinel, why shouldn't we lynch him? Combined with your bizzare behavior early on, I'm now positive you are scum as well. Thanks for making this really obvious.
^^This was my initial argument against prphlz. Calling people out without any analysis or responding to any of Time's points.
I did not use this as my argument for why Time was town. prphlz was talking out his butt at this point to save his neck.
prphlz also then made a string of very passionate posts defending Sentinel. I am not sure why he did this, but it is the same type of bizzare defense of Sentinel we saw from Bluelightz, suggests (but does not prove) that Sentinel may be scum.
On February 04 2012 09:17 prplhz wrote:
@sinani206
Switch to Timeaisis. [UoN]Sentinel is a fucking horrible lynch and if you gathered any skill at all over your SEVEN FUCKING TEEN games then you should know this.
There are way more than this, but I don't want this to get any longer.
Then there was this:
On February 04 2012 12:06 prplhz wrote:
@EchelonTee What do you think about TheToast?
Being that ET's terrible analysis of Time ended with a townie getting lynched, it makes sense that scum would try to swing ET's attention onto another townie. Obviously ET's analysis was convincing, so why not try to get him to write another?
On February 04 2012 12:16 prplhz wrote:
I'm uneasy about how he's refusing to address how I pointed out that he was using the same arguments for Timeaisis being town as for me being scum. Also his early game is a lot of throwing suspicion around and no committing.
Pretty much, Timeaisis was the most logical case there was.
Student Mafia was on 27 pages at day1 lynch, dunno why this is so much slower. BaronFel and Vilonis and sinani206 and Nisani201 all need to post more.
This last one was the best. Most logical case? Ironic considering prphlz used about one of the least logical arguments possible to refute my defense of Time. To me, this is prphlz clearly trying to cover his tracks here. His terrible arguments were instrumental in moving forward the bandwagon on Time. By trying to claim that it was all based on logical analysis, he thinks he can make himself look townie.
But in reality, the only thing that explains all of his actions, his bad arguments, and every other point I've brought up here is that he is mafia. No question in my mind.
Since I think I am likely to be dead tonight, let me summerize:
Scum:
Bluelightz
prphlz
If we have a vigilante on the team, you know what you have to do. If not then guys, MAKE SURE ONE OF THESE TWO IS LYNCHED DAY 2!
For reference here is my posts on Bluelightz: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=306452¤tpage=9#176
I'm not entirely sure who the third member is, my two candidates are [UoN]Sentinel and EchelonTee
-Sentinel looks like the most likely candidate. Bluelightz and prphlz have both defended him, and he was the third person on the early bandwagon against Sinesis. His posting is pretty clean though, and the analysis against him was not at all conclusive. I'm thinking there is a very good chance he is mafia number 3, but I don't have any conclusive proof against him.
-EchelonTee I think is the only other candidate for #3. The only reason I bring him up is for his terrible analysis of Time, I mean like really bad analysis. If you actually read Time's posting it should be really clear he was town. However I cannot find any other clues in his posts that would indicate he is scum, probably just really bad at analysis. prphlz also continued to use ET's analysis as reasoning for lynching Time, but I think he just saw bad analysis that he could take advantage of. I could be wrong about that though.
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On February 05 2012 09:08 EchelonTee wrote:
It's easy in hindsight to say that analysis was stupid/wrong; at the time no one had any tangible objections to my analysis. I noted that Timeaisis looked nooby, but it was his bandwagoning/excessive agreement + that he didn't defend/respond to me much at all, that made me think he was scum. You can't say that he was CLEARLY, OBVIOUS town; he had scum traits. So did other people; thats why moving forward we've got stuff to work with.
Won't be around for the Day post; my primary suspect is Bluelightz.
Actually I said quite clearly at the time that Timeaisis was town.
[QUOTE]On February 04 2012 02:36 TheToast wrote:
[QUOTE]On February 04 2012 02:25 mderg wrote:
[QUOTE]On February 02 2012 13:52 Timeaisis wrote:
Agreed.[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE]On February 02 2012 15:50 Timeaisis wrote:
I agree.[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE]On February 03 2012 06:20 Timeaisis wrote:
But since we have a vote rolling for Sentinel, that's the way I'm going.
[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE]On February 03 2012 06:37 Timeaisis wrote:
And yeah, I agree with mderg that you are probably scum.[/QUOTE]
This also seems odd to me. You agreed with others and went with the flow quite often. This might indicate a lack of interest to bring in much of your own thoughts, something I see more on the scummy side.
Doesn´t make you scum but:
FoS: Timeaisis[/QUOTE]
I highly doubt that Timeaisis is scum.[quote]
There's nothing "in hindsight" about my post. Your analysis was deeply flawed. My favorite point is when you accused him of over and over claiming that he was new:
[QUOTE]On February 03 2012 10:35 EchelonTee wrote:
I was thinking that you were just newbie townie, your filter is full of stuff like this:
[QUOTE]On February 02 2012 13:17 Timeaisis wrote:
I haven't played any games myself, but I've read a couple of threads and understand more or less how it works. Of course, that doesn't mean I'm any good.  [/QUOTE]
Talking about being new over and over is a weak scum tell; giving yourself an excuse for bad reasoning/lack of actual analysis is scummy, but new players are often just that: new. But to emphasize your noobiness then start advancing bandwagons while having a curious lack of logic or initiative? you're newbie scum.
##Vote Timeaisis[/QUOTE]
Now when you said "your filter is full of stuff like this" did you actually mean to say "you have one post that says this"???
Because that was the ONLY post from time that uses the word "new" prior to you posting that. It's one of two posts where he mentioned that he was a newbie. Both of these were on page 4 in the absolute beginning of the game. He did not mention his newness again. Yet here you are 5 pages later calling him out as being scum. You did it again here:
[QUOTE]On February 03 2012 12:09 EchelonTee wrote:
[QUOTE]On February 03 2012 11:55 Timeaisis wrote:
[QUOTE]On February 03 2012 10:35 EchelonTee wrote:
[QUOTE]On February 02 2012 13:17 Timeaisis wrote:
I haven't played any games myself, but I've read a couple of threads and understand more or less how it works. Of course, that doesn't mean I'm any good. [/QUOTE]
Talking about being new over and over is a weak scum tell; giving yourself an excuse for bad reasoning/lack of actual analysis is scummy, but new players are often just that: new. But to emphasize your noobiness then start advancing bandwagons while having a curious lack of logic or initiative? you're newbie scum.
##Vote Timeaisis[/QUOTE]
I didn't realize saying it once was "over and over", but OK. Whatever you say.[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE]On February 02 2012 12:57 Timeaisis wrote:
Hey everyone, I'm new at this so don't go too hard on me, but I think I'll reserve my vote until we get a clear understanding of who is in our midst. .[/QUOTE]
directly stating
[QUOTE]On February 02 2012 13:17 Timeaisis wrote:
I haven't played any games myself, but I've read a couple of threads and understand more or less how it works. Of course, that doesn't mean I'm any good. [/QUOTE]
restating badness
[QUOTE]On February 02 2012 14:42 Timeaisis wrote:
OK, good to know. So basically, if someone speaks once and then is silent, that's a sign. But sounds like inactives are gonna get killed anyway. Good to know. [/QUOTE]
this is a tone thing; emphasizing your lack of knowledge
you could, you know, respond to every part of my posts.[/QUOTE]
Making your argument with the same two posts. Nice. Oh, and that last one hilariously was his response to you after you called him out for being wrong about lurkers. You were actually right and he was wrong, HOW should he have responded to you???
I loved this one two:
[QUOTE]On February 04 2012 06:05 EchelonTee wrote:
[QUOTE]On February 04 2012 04:54 Timeaisis wrote:
Then, soon after that FoS, an interesting post by Bluelightz, probably because Sinensis and I our stirring up trouble, and we're obviously both new.
[/QUOTE]
funfact: Sinensis played a mafia game 2.5ish years ago
[/QUOTE]
Oooo he was wrong about a game Sinesis played TWO YEARS AGO.... wow he MUST be scum NOW.....
You also never bothered to respond to me defense of Time, I don't know if you missed it or just ignored it. Not sure how you could have missed it because prphlz spent half a page trying to break it apart with ridiculous counter points.
The more I hear from you, the less convinced I am that you just made some bad analysis. Your response here really looks like you are desperately trying to sweep this under the rug.
[QUOTE]On February 05 2012 10:25 prplhz wrote:
Just want to say that I don't think you're scum TheToast.
I'll respond to your accusations a bit later.[/QUOTE]
Remember what I said? This is the "I have no response to this so I need time to come up with some BS answer as to why this is not right". Or maybe scum is trying to take me down tonight and you are hoping that after I am gone you can argue everyone down with some BS knowing that I can't continue to point out why it's BS. Which apparently the rest of the town seems unwilling to do.
If it's a matter of time, why even bother posting anything at all? Why not just post your whole defense later? What's even the point of leaving this message? I think you are a bit afraid that if the townies read this and sit thinking about it for too long they are going to realize I am very right.
[QUOTE]On February 05 2012 08:48 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
I support prplhz for two reasons -
1) His defense helped me not get lynched, and
2) His logic makes sense.
Now you're helping knock out reason #2.
If he's scum, this is actually a good strategy. He's giving me full support in the hopes that I'm blue (if I had to guess, there are 3-4 blue roles so that's 33%-44% chance of being right, fairly good odds) so that when he gets lynched, I go down with him.[/quote]
This makes no sense to me.
[quote]
So is it ET or prplhz who got Time lynched?[/quote]
Neither. They provided the spark, the townies threw on the fuel that started the fire. prplhz is scum, 100%. Whether ET is scum or not I am still not sure. It's either him or you.
[quote]Don't resign yourself to your fate that easily.[/QUOTE]
I sure as hell hope I'm wrong. Or hope we have a good medic, or my mention of the medic made mafia change their mind about who to attempt to take down and went after sinani. But that may be just be optimism. I guess we will know shortly.
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shit. Let me repost that in a fashion that is actually readable. Sorry about that, I accidentally deleted a quote tag. Same post as above.
On February 05 2012 10:55 TheToast wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2012 09:08 EchelonTee wrote:
It's easy in hindsight to say that analysis was stupid/wrong; at the time no one had any tangible objections to my analysis. I noted that Timeaisis looked nooby, but it was his bandwagoning/excessive agreement + that he didn't defend/respond to me much at all, that made me think he was scum. You can't say that he was CLEARLY, OBVIOUS town; he had scum traits. So did other people; thats why moving forward we've got stuff to work with.
Won't be around for the Day post; my primary suspect is Bluelightz.
Actually I said quite clearly at the time that Timeaisis was town.
On February 04 2012 02:36 TheToast wrote:Show nested quote +On February 04 2012 02:25 mderg wrote:On February 02 2012 13:52 Timeaisis wrote:
Agreed. On February 02 2012 15:50 Timeaisis wrote:
I agree. On February 03 2012 06:20 Timeaisis wrote:
But since we have a vote rolling for Sentinel, that's the way I'm going.
On February 03 2012 06:37 Timeaisis wrote:
And yeah, I agree with mderg that you are probably scum. This also seems odd to me. You agreed with others and went with the flow quite often. This might indicate a lack of interest to bring in much of your own thoughts, something I see more on the scummy side. Doesn´t make you scum but: FoS: Timeaisis I highly doubt that Timeaisis is scum.
There's nothing "in hindsight" about my post. Your analysis was deeply flawed. My favorite point is when you accused him of over and over claiming that he was new:
On February 03 2012 10:35 EchelonTee wrote:I was thinking that you were just newbie townie, your filter is full of stuff like this:Show nested quote +On February 02 2012 13:17 Timeaisis wrote:I haven't played any games myself, but I've read a couple of threads and understand more or less how it works. Of course, that doesn't mean I'm any good. Talking about being new over and over is a weak scum tell; giving yourself an excuse for bad reasoning/lack of actual analysis is scummy, but new players are often just that: new. But to emphasize your noobiness then start advancing bandwagons while having a curious lack of logic or initiative? you're newbie scum. ##Vote Timeaisis
Now when you said "your filter is full of stuff like this" did you actually mean to say "you have one post that says this"???
Because that was the ONLY post from time that uses the word "new" prior to you posting that. It's one of two posts where he mentioned that he was a newbie. Both of these were on page 4 in the absolute beginning of the game. He did not mention his newness again. Yet here you are 5 pages later calling him out as being scum. You did it again here:
On February 03 2012 12:09 EchelonTee wrote:Show nested quote +On February 03 2012 11:55 Timeaisis wrote:On February 03 2012 10:35 EchelonTee wrote:On February 02 2012 13:17 Timeaisis wrote:I haven't played any games myself, but I've read a couple of threads and understand more or less how it works. Of course, that doesn't mean I'm any good. Talking about being new over and over is a weak scum tell; giving yourself an excuse for bad reasoning/lack of actual analysis is scummy, but new players are often just that: new. But to emphasize your noobiness then start advancing bandwagons while having a curious lack of logic or initiative? you're newbie scum. ##Vote Timeaisis I didn't realize saying it once was "over and over", but OK. Whatever you say. Show nested quote +On February 02 2012 12:57 Timeaisis wrote:
Hey everyone, I'm new at this so don't go too hard on me, but I think I'll reserve my vote until we get a clear understanding of who is in our midst. . directly stating Show nested quote +On February 02 2012 13:17 Timeaisis wrote:I haven't played any games myself, but I've read a couple of threads and understand more or less how it works. Of course, that doesn't mean I'm any good. restating badness Show nested quote +On February 02 2012 14:42 Timeaisis wrote:
OK, good to know. So basically, if someone speaks once and then is silent, that's a sign. But sounds like inactives are gonna get killed anyway. Good to know. this is a tone thing; emphasizing your lack of knowledge you could, you know, respond to every part of my posts.
Making your argument with the same two posts. Nice. Oh, and that last one hilariously was his response to you after you called him out for being wrong about lurkers. You were actually right and he was wrong, HOW should he have responded to you???
I loved this one two:
On February 04 2012 06:05 EchelonTee wrote:Show nested quote +On February 04 2012 04:54 Timeaisis wrote:
Then, soon after that FoS, an interesting post by Bluelightz, probably because Sinensis and I our stirring up trouble, and we're obviously both new.
funfact: Sinensis played a mafia game 2.5ish years ago
Oooo he was wrong about a game Sinesis played TWO YEARS AGO.... wow he MUST be scum NOW.....
You also never bothered to respond to me defense of Time, I don't know if you missed it or just ignored it. Not sure how you could have missed it because prphlz spent half a page trying to break it apart with ridiculous counter points.
The more I hear from you, the less convinced I am that you just made some bad analysis. Your response here really looks like you are desperately trying to sweep this under the rug.
On February 05 2012 10:25 prplhz wrote:
Just want to say that I don't think you're scum TheToast.
I'll respond to your accusations a bit later.
Remember what I said? This is the "I have no response to this so I need time to come up with some BS answer as to why this is not right". Or maybe scum is trying to take me down tonight and you are hoping that after I am gone you can argue everyone down with some BS knowing that I can't continue to point out why it's BS. Which apparently the rest of the town seems unwilling to do.
If it's a matter of time, why even bother posting anything at all? Why not just post your whole defense later? What's even the point of leaving this message? I think you are a bit afraid that if the townies read this and sit thinking about it for too long they are going to realize I am very right.
On February 05 2012 08:48 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
I support prplhz for two reasons -
1) His defense helped me not get lynched, and
2) His logic makes sense.
Now you're helping knock out reason #2.
If he's scum, this is actually a good strategy. He's giving me full support in the hopes that I'm blue (if I had to guess, there are 3-4 blue roles so that's 33%-44% chance of being right, fairly good odds) so that when he gets lynched, I go down with him.
This makes no sense to me.
So is it ET or prplhz who got Time lynched?
Neither. They provided the spark, the townies threw on the fuel that started the fire. prplhz is scum, 100%. Whether ET is scum or not I am still not sure. It's either him or you.
Don't resign yourself to your fate that easily.
I sure as hell hope I'm wrong. Or hope we have a good medic, or my mention of the medic made mafia change their mind about who to attempt to take down and went after sinani. But that may be just be optimism. I guess we will know shortly.
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On February 05 2012 11:41 EchelonTee wrote:
Those three things really make me suspicious? Like wtf. Half the town is inactive, other half spewing vitriole at each other. You're town but you gotta be more logical with this stuff.
Yes it does make you suspicious. Doesn't mean you are scum though, as I said I don't think there is enough evidence to make a call against a third person. Just that you and Sentinel should be on everyone's radar.
You are right about half the town being inactive though. Makes it much easier for Mafia to hide out among them.
On February 05 2012 11:47 EchelonTee wrote:Show nested quote +I sure as hell hope I'm wrong. Or hope we have a good medic, or my mention of the medic made mafia change their mind about who to attempt to take down and went after sinani. But that may be just be optimism. I guess we will know shortly. Why are you assuming that sinani is town? or that he is next best target?
Hopefully we are close enough to the Day 2 deadline without getting him killed. I'm pretty sure Sinani is a blue. It makes sense. Sinani is a vet, he's also a good confirmed scum hunter. I think he knows Mafia would be gunning for him from the beginning. By laying low he has the best chance of making it past day one and using his night power. If he were chaos he would have been much more active and been manipulating people all along.
Of course the very nature of a lurker means I don't have much evidence to back up this theory, but it seems to fit IMO.
I hope you are right about me staying alive. If I do die though, town avenge me. Burn the heretics!!!!!!!!!
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Whelp. Looks like I was wrong about ET and Sentinel.
And I was really fucking wrong about Sinani. I'm wondering who the vigilante is and how they knew.
Either way it's time to go after the next most competent mafia.
##Vote: prplhz
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On February 05 2012 12:02 prplhz wrote:This was my defense by the way, since I'm confirmed town I'm not gonna spend a lot of time on your case TheToast. We can talk about it after the game if you want to 
Did I miss something????
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On February 05 2012 12:06 prplhz wrote:
The post just above that. I'm the vigilante who shot sinani206 making me confirmed town.
Can you give us anything more than your word to go on? How did you know Sinani was mafia? Can you give me any reasoning behind and of the issues I brought up?
And if you are indeed town, who are the other two mafia, besides bluelightz??
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EPT
