EPThurray!
Newbie Mini Mafia III
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slOosh
3291 Posts
hurray! | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
"The Godfather has the ability to decide what role he will appear to be when a Detective role checks him" Since the cops can only find alignment this setup, does this mean he can only decide to appear as townie / mafia ? | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On January 24 2012 13:37 Probulous wrote: Am I correct in saying that no-one knows whether there is a miller, even the miller themselves, until the miller flips? Holy hell that could cause some problems  Piggybacking off this question: Is this half open setup (roles are known but which ones and how many aren't)? Also, a question to the TL Mafia people in general: the in standard way for mafia to communicate night actions through pms? I'm not sure since I've only read games and some QuickTopics, but never any mafia pm threads if such things exist. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
From the two newbie minis I've read, it seems like inactivity was quite detrimental. Let's make sure that people don't get away with lurking! | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
It's slightly understandable given that it is Newbie Mafia, but to say our only options are randomly lynching or no-lynching seems a bit too much in my opinion. I base this on the other newbie minis where a plan (such as pressuring inactives) lead to discussion and therefore more information upon which the town made better-than-random lynch cases I don't like this defaulting to random lynch. It allows for WIFOM and general chaos in general as it is not built on something solid such as post analysis but , as its name suggests, something completely random. I don't think this is a pro - town idea. Promoting a good town atmosphere will lead to educated guesses, so I say we wait until people had a chance to read and post, then we pressure inactives and go from there. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
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slOosh
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On January 25 2012 15:21 zelblade wrote: Regarding the setup, 4 scum to 9 town seems like a lot of scum to me. This would lead me to believe that scum KP is probably 1, as anything else will probably be excessive. As such, we probably have only 2 mislynches before LYLO, unless there is a medic prot of some sort of course. Thus we need to make sure that we use these lynches well, and use logical reasoning to pin down the lynch onto the scum. To town, we need to post more, as more posts = more contributions, and would allow us to make analysis and thus help to pin down who the scum are. Ok this post is really weird. 1) OP clearly states Mafia KP. On January 24 2012 08:35 dreamflower wrote: Mafia Goon Your goal is to eliminate everyone else in the town. Your ability, as a group, is killing off whomever you decide on at night and knowing the role of each other player in your mafia. You may kill your own members. Mafia killing power is always 1 until there are no mafia remaining. Of course this is a newbie game so y'know, people make mistakes. 2) This post doesn't actually give us anything new or that helpful. We can do the math and figure how many mislynches we have till Lylo, which isn't information you typically use day 1. I mean, unless you push for no lynch, how's that info help? 3) This is the part that got me from giving benefit of the doubt to feeling weird: On January 25 2012 15:21 zelblade wrote: To town, we need to post more, as more posts = more contributions, and would allow us to make analysis and thus help to pin down who the scum are. What the heck? Who does this? Who addresses town? A town post would have started at "we need to post more ...". #FOS zelblade | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On January 25 2012 15:21 zelblade wrote: we probably have only 2 mislynches before LYLO On January 25 2012 19:22 zarepath wrote: I think the strongest argument against doing this is that, because of the high mafia/town ratio, we only have 2 miss-lynches before it's LYLO, as zelblade pointed out. On January 25 2012 23:55 zarepath wrote: Okay, forget random lynching. I still think targeting someone randomly and seeing how they respond is better than policy-lynching the quiet people, but I think it's a good point that with 4 mafia, we can only miss-lynch twice. I would like to stop this poor logic before it ingrates itself into the town's mindset: Knowing how many mislynches we have does NOTHING. You don't say, oh we have spare townies we can just make this questionable lynch, it's ok if we mess up since its not lylo yet. Also, I the idea of random lynches has been SHUT DOWN. We've discussed that it is a poor idea. We should stop discussing unless someone brings up a good counter point. Otherwise we have mafia getting away with agreement posts that are insubstantial but impress the notion that they are helping town and contributing. Fostering discussion is not the goal. Fostering good discussion is the goal. Talking about topics that everyone has already talked about and agreed upon is not discussion. It is clutter and an opportunity for mafia to pretend to contribute. Please stop. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
Fostering good discussion is the goal where good is defined as catching and killing mafia. Everything we do should fall under this category and if it doesn't we shouldn't do it. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
12 out of 13 people have posted (TheFearedBeing has not). So 3 or 4 mafia have posted something. Yet I still see many people lurking and getting by without posting anything substantial. I invite you to take a quick glance at the player filters and see this for yourselves. Now I'm not going to point people out right now because I don't want to give mafia a chance to change the subject off the "FakePromise's 30%" - lynch, but I want everyone to be wary and NOT ASSUME the lurker problem is over. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
I've refrained from posting .... I'll be posting again in roughly 13~14 hours from now when I get out of class. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
Since Simberto seems like the most pro town here, I want to ask for his/her opinion. I think I have a substantial case (better than the FakePromise case), but it is against someone who is slightly above that "barely more" level. Would it be good for us to go for this person or is it better for us to really pressure the harder lurkers? Hopefully will find sometime during the day to post, but if not I'll be there before the deadline for sure. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
Until then I really want to see Chocolate and balt11t post. I don't want them to get away lurking until something big happens and they can pretend to contribute. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
Say half the group does not vote and get modkilled. The remaining group can still decide to lynch as there is a lower, attainable majority lynch number. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
The worst thing we can have is clutter; the thread is the only means of town communication. Now as we've seen, there are already many players who are suspect. - Zelblade's timidity and apologetic tone - FakePromise's 30% and general apathy - small time posters e.g balt11t, CosmosXAM and Chocolate etc. HOWEVER, reading kitaman27's Newbie Mini Mafia left an impression on me. While we are so focused on catching lurker mafia, there can be outspoken, active and seemingly helpful mafia disguising as town that fly under the radar and whose influences are not well noted (Ciryandor in the game linked). We have a bunch of lurkers, but lets not devote all our attention and resources trying to pick off which is which. While we should go after lurkers (p.s. I suggest if we have any vigis that we use those shots on them, Ace's vigi / cop guide) we should not ever assume that active players are town confirmed. This is the mindset with which I read over the thread. I will now push forward the Zarepath Lynch. ##Vote Zarepath Zarepath's filter. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Case I: + Show Spoiler + Zarepath opens the day's discussions with a random / no lynch proposal. We've discussed how it is a poorly thought out, Anti-Town plan. However, read between the lines with me (set 1 is italicized , set 2 is bolded, set 3 underlined) + Show Spoiler + On January 25 2012 13:28 zarepath wrote: So, the first question I think has to be this: What do we want to accomplish on Day 1? We either no-lynch or randomly lynch, as far as I can tell. We don't have much game history to draw upon as far as deciding who to cut early. I see several possible outcomes: Randomly lynch a mafia/red: This is clearly the best possible outcome. If we have worthwhile hunches to go on, it's possible we can lynch a mafia on the first Day. From what I've read it's unlikely, but still possible; it all depends on what kind of discussion we see today. Randomly lynch a townie/blue: Bad. The only upside is that we can then use the information from that lynching to determine likely mafia. Who was most excited about randomly lynching that particular person? Who bandwagonned on? Who were the last few votes who made the lynch possible? No-lynch: We don't get a mafia, or confirmation of who isn't mafia. Because there's no risk of lynching a townie/blue, this seems to be very safe. But what I wonder is this: if we don't lynch anyone today, our information for Day 2 is limited, and we give the mafia a night to kill someone. We end up with 1 dead townie before we're willing to make deductions. Maybe it's riskier to not lynch someone on the first night, because we'd have less information to go on. So what I'm suggesting is this: we lynch someone randomly. Say, by reverse-alphabetical order. There's no reason at all for us to suspect this person. But by deciding to lynch them, we'll either see a lot of defense (ie, they're mafia), or a lot of people agreeing with killing that person (ie, those people are mafia.) Once that person flips blue or red, we'll know who was who. TLDR; I suggest that we randomly lynch zelblade, or seriously discuss it, and see what happens from there. Set 1 (italicized) This isn't a hard slip up but it isn't quite null tell either. The question is good. What do we want to accomplish. He doesn't answer his own question though. He offers a plan and sweeps the question under the rug. Don't think he is a mafia, but I start to watch out for him. Set 2 (bolded) Look at his mentions of alignments (mafia, blue, town). Look past the plan itself and observe his word choice. Did you see what I saw? "Once that person flips blue or red". You KNOW it was NOT a typo since one paragraph above he uses the phrase "1 dead townie" and that he considers the two factions mafia and townie/blue. I believe he has blue hunting on his mind and it leaked out. I am definitely suspicious and decide a full blown analysis is worth investing into. Set 3 (underlined) This is a recurring theme that doesn't make sense. Set 3 will continue well into his other posts. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Case 2: + Show Spoiler + Set 1 bolded set 2 italics + Show Spoiler + On January 25 2012 19:22 zarepath wrote: The point is that upon flip, we have much more to go on. Anyone irrationally defending you now, if it turns out you're mafia, has a solid chance of also being mafia. So no, not anyone defending you is necessarily mafia, and not necessarily anyone accusing you, but upon flip, we can figure out which side of that we can throw our suspicions. After reading others' responses to the idea: no, a RNG lynch would NOT be as useful to us, because we don't learn anything from it (as has been pointed out). By me randomly accusing someone, that person is forced to speak, and others are forced to defend if mafia/bandwagon if he's not. I argue that the process has already begun, based on the content of some of these posts. I think the strongest argument against doing this is that, because of the high mafia/town ratio, we only have 2 miss-lynches before it's LYLO, as zelblade pointed out. Lynching lurkers is not as great a strategy as it sounds. As others pointed out, mafia can just decide to post more, and then suddenly we're looking at lynching the less-active townies just because they don't talk enough. People who don't post at all get modkilled anyway, and seeing as how this is a newbie game, there are probably several lurkers who just don't know where to get started. I also agree that we should go after suspicious people. And I think we'll find out who they are by continuing to pressure zelblade. Set 1 (bolded) He is pushing for a kill for information. Information!! He doesn't care if its not a mafia, because he wants information! He uses the word "necessarily" twice, and after the flip the information can help town "[cast] our suspicions". He doesn't even value the information gained from the flip that highly. Set 2 (italics) Zelblade points out that town has 2 mislynches to Lylo (which I think is unhelpful information but that is beside the point). Zarepath uses this information. If you use someones info, it means that they are contributing. He ends the post saying that we should go after suspicious people, namely Zelblade. He uses information provided by someone who he thinks as suspicious. He calls for pressure on zelblade that he does not create himself . Please go read his filter right now. Here's a quick example. On January 25 2012 23:55 zarepath wrote: Okay, forget random lynching. I still think targeting someone randomly and seeing how they respond is better than policy-lynching the quiet people, but I think it's a good point that with 4 mafia, we can only miss-lynch twice. But we need something to go on; some way of getting info. I have a few ideas but there are still a lot of people we haven't heard from. Quiet people need to speak up soon. Again, this quest for info (obtained by killing innocents or mafia he doesn't care) and self contradictions. What happened to the pressure Zelblade plan? ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Case 3 (last one bear with me guys): + Show Spoiler + It's really messy to show this without going through all the posts so I'll show you one example and you guys can read the filter yourselves. This has to do with the discrepancy in actions and words (like the zelblade pressure) + Show Spoiler + On January 27 2012 00:47 zarepath wrote: I don't know what WIFOM is (these newbie games should have a list of acronyms at the beginning). And that's not a contradiction or flipflop. Mafia would tell him to defend himself because they couldn't be seen defending such an awful argument; but they'd help him defend himself a little bit, at least, which obviously didn't happen. You can count my post as an invalidation of that reasoning, but Fake's safety isn't my prime concern here; mis-lynching is, and with three votes tallied against him, I had to step in before the votes got out of control and we mis-lynched (according to my suspicions). I think that Cosmos is the stronger candidate. Ok. So he says he is concerned with mislynch. As in, lynching people who are not mafia. He says that Fake is not mafia very adamantly On January 26 2012 22:00 zarepath wrote:"I do NOT think that FakePromise is a mafia." yet look at his wording at the end. First, "I think". Not, Cosmos is the stronger candidate, but "I think". Where did that conviction go Zarepath? Furthermore, look at his voting pattern. After he posts his "FakePromise is an inexperienced town" at January 26 2012 22:00, he waits for Simberto to agree and vote first before he casts his own vote 6 minutes after at January 27 2012 03:05. 5 Hours and after someone else goes first. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- OK. Now LISTEN Don't post unless you have either - Analytical arguments against MY Case. I don't care if you want to lynch lurkers. Everyone does. But unless you either refute my case or build another as substantial as mine, which probably can't be done against few-post lurkers, please don't sidetrack or clutter discussion. - Or you are Zarepath defending yourself. I partially DIDN'T want to post this because it would give mafia an easy out of lurking by just agreeing with me and blah blah blah. So to prevent that, please clear the way for Zarepath to speak, or speak on his behalf. Again, I make my stance and vote clear: ##Vote Zarepath | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
If you agree with me just Vote. Don't let him weasel out of this. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
If every slight misuse of the term "blue" is supposed to mean you're mafia, we're going to have a hard road figuring things out. It's your choice of using "blue" to represent town alignment that is questionable, especially considering you used the phrase "townie/blue" several times in the same post. It's not a slight misuse to say that blue means town. Using green to represent town is common. No one uses blue to do it. Except you. I don't see the problem with this, either. Yes, I do. This is semantics. "Necessarily" means that I'm not implying that both accusers and defenders are guilty of being mafia; "necessarily" means that it's one or the other, and upon flip, we know which one. Lynching for info is dumb. We get info regardless of who is lynched, and yet you keep using this excuse to push forward lynches. It is clear that we have thrown out no-lynch as a poor choice. It is illogical to use this excuse of information gathering to support lynching specific people. I'm the ORIGINAL pressure on zelblade. All zelblade pressure originated from me calling for his lynch at the very beginning. Yea, sure: My post, Zel's response, then yours 3 posts and 5 hours down. Who was the one with the FOS ???? Vote timing is hardly an indication of me being mafia. Wouldn't it have been more suspicious for me to wait for someone to disagree, and then back off my "FakePromise is innocent" argument? Honestly, the least-suspicous timing would have been for me to vote exactly when I posted. This wasn't one of the cases I pushed, but you use WIFOM very often. Wouldn'ts and woulds don't help us. Vote timing IS an indication. If you really believed it to be true then you stick with it. Much like I am sticking my neck out gunning for you. If you can't even make the first vote on your own analysis then clearly you don't believe it, you aren't acting on your words and that is called deception - something only a mafia would do. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On January 27 2012 11:18 Simberto wrote: Apparently, we won't get a lynch on zarepath in time, so i will change my vote back to FakePromise. At least this way we have one less lurker and absolute noncontributor. And if he flips red, we need to really take a look at zarepath. If he does not, we need to really reconsider our assumptions. I would suggest everyone with a vote on zarepath (or those random useless votes) to do the same, since voting ends in 45 minutes and we only have 4 of 7 needed votes on zarepath, while there are now 7 votes on FakePromise (which would be enough, but is not really safe). ##unvote Zarepath ##voteFakePromise FakePromise flipping either one does not dissolve my analysis and arguments. It might add weight to the other side, but my case still stands as the only real analysis argument. A good mafia looks like town and it is a critical error to let them blend in and look over those tells and motives that indicate that they aren't town . | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
Looks like a bus in action. (Bussing is when a mafia who knows that they will die and so try to give credibility and influence to another mafia member with their death. In this case I think mafia is bussing Fake to make zarepath look better.) I want to emphasize that fakepromise flipping whatever does not throw my analysis out the window. It does not. | ||
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slOosh
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slOosh
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I do agree with MidnightGladius that Bromancipate is a good place to start. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
The night is 2/3rds over but only 4 people have posted. This will not do. I propose we take a serious look at zelblade. He is the one I feel strongest about being mafia. Here is his filter I think DoYouHas nailed it. And I'll talk about his response to this post. On January 26 2012 08:01 DoYouHas wrote: I believe zelblade is our best lynch option. Just look at what he did when thrust into the spotlight. He has been apologizing and clarifying posts (which were already pretty clear) ever since spl0osh criticized his second post. Instead of using the spotlight to voice his own suspicions or convince us of his innocence, he has tried to move out of the spotlight as quickly and quietly as possible, while avoiding offending anyone. While his initial posts weren't particularly scummy, his responses have been nothing but suspicious. ## Vote: zelblade His response to this post? More apologizing The reason why I have been so apologetic is simply because it is my 1st game of mafia. I am not really sure how to approach this game, and am quite unsure of myself - that I may be making nooby mistakes. Apparently being overly apologetic is a nooby mistake, and i will try to correct that. Also @ fakepromise i am not really sure what you mean by this part.... I really dont understand the bolded part, what did u mean by that? He certainly isnt accusing you because you happened to be reading after i posted.... as that doesnt make sense. He paints himself as a newbie player and He emphasizes his confusion. Simberto does a good job explaining why town does not do this. On January 26 2012 23:35 Simberto wrote: Zelblade looks absurdly scummy at this point, really even so much that i might even favor him over lynching a lurker. He posted a lot in the beginning, his posts made him look scummy, and now he does nothing but post apologetic things and attacks onto the easy target FakePromise. Take a look at this gem: He apologizes for being apologetic. Really? AND he paints himself as a noob. Why should a towny do that? As town, i want people to trust me, and carefully consider what i say, not take me for a noob who has nothing important to say. However, "being a noob" is a wonderful excuse for inconsistencies that might result from mafia trying to act as town. The rest of his only post today was used to specifically attack FakePromise, who is already in pretty deep problems anyways. His final post? He doesn't try apologizing, nor explaining himself anymore. He ignores Simberto's post. On January 27 2012 00:19 zelblade wrote: Since I have to go to sleep soon (in about half and hour) and fakepromise still hasnt posted any sort of defence yet, I will be voting for him for now. Will wake up to check the thread in probably about 7-8 hours or so when i wake up, though i probably can only skim through the thread as i have to rush to school than, but definately can change my vote if need be. ##vote FakePromise Do not let him get away with this lurking. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
How about this. Answer these two questions - Name one person who you think is town and why. - Name one person who you think is mafia and why. Bromancipate, SacredSystem, Chocolate, balt11t, CosmosXAM, Adam4167 and zelblade - answer the question. All the rest of us have been pretty active and so instead of answering this ourselves we should pressure the lurkers. By withholding our own answers, we can put these guys in the spotlight. There are 7 hours left in the night. Post or warrant more suspicion on yourselves. Town have nothing to fear, and much to gain by posting. List of haven't posted yet: Bromancipate, SacredSystem, Chocolate, balt11t, CosmosXAM, Adam4167 and zelblade. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
That leaves at best 3 town/blue in that group. Staying quiet does not make you less of a target to mafia. If anything it draws attention as the only reason non mafia would lay low is if you are blue. Blues : Your powers are not the only contribution you can make. Please post. There is no reason to stay quiet. I want to re-iterate: Town has much to gain by posting. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
Mafia know each other as soon as they received their pm. Sacred, what are your responses to my two questions? | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On January 27 2012 10:42 CosmosXAM wrote: In a case where a larger group of 2-4 people strongly defend a person while simultaneously attack another seems to me like a deflection that could be very well employed by a mafia helping a friend: they bring attention off their ally and put pressure on someone who isnt. Now even if it isn't a larger group like that you would think that a person known by the mafia to be mafia would at least be defended a little. I am seeing a some strong similarities in posts and opinions and some alliances showing their faces, I would advise everyone to re-read some posts by both zarepath and DoYouHas. I noticed that their later posts have striking similarities and that they both seem to just pick targets together, first with zelblade and now with me, and they attacked us while in most cases defending someone else in both cases FakePromise and in DoYouHas's case zarepath. To me this seems very scummy and I stand 100% by my vote on zarepath as of this point. I am inclined to believe that Zarepath and DoYouHas are townies who are independently coming to the same conclusions using logic, analysis etc. For instance if both of them see an attack built on questionable logic by player A on player B, it makes sense that they defend B and suspect A as they see the logic is flawed. I also picked zelblade as a target with them. I also have shifted to believing that Zarepath is not mafia, or in the very least not anti-town. I display the same behavior for which you are suspicious of Zarepath. Yet you think I am town and Zarepath is mafia. Care to explain? | ||
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slOosh
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Please limit your choice to ONE person only. (I.e. one town and one mafia). Naming more makes it difficult to discern your stance and lets mafia get away with weakly pointing at people that other people are pointing at. List of haven't posted yet (in bold) Bromancipate, SacredSystem, | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On January 28 2012 06:30 Chocolate wrote: Well I'm back from school so here goes nothing. I think simberto is the most town because he has posted many posts, usually with good content a la getting people to post, analyzing, etc. He is very active, although not so much tonight as he has been while I've been gone before. I think sacredsystem is mafia, or at least appears to be the most mafia right now. Definitely suspicious. The most suspicious part is that his posts are confusing- if anyone calls him out on them for a scumslip he could try to explain it away by interpreting his posts. Then again, he may just be trying to be concise with his posts, and they do generally have a good message. I'm just not sure about him. Zellblade has been suspicious to me for the whole game, as has zarepath. Please provide one quote of his in which he does this and show how you come to this conclusion. I want to see you do it, instead of doing it for you. Pick only one mafia suspect. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
The longer you take to post, the more suspicions cast upon you. Town are always thinking of who could be town who could be mafia as they start with 0 information Mafia do not since they already have the information. Post. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
(Just say, "Here" or something. Please chime in if you see really faulty logic or see posts that try to evade the question. However keep suspicions and suspects to yourself for now.) Day is approaching. We have 5 hours. Sacred I'm still waiting on you and you look less credible as time goes on. Delaying is something only mafia do as they want to get their plan straightened out. Town should already have stuff in mind. Post. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On January 28 2012 06:57 SacredSystem wrote: if zarepath was mafia he would have know that fakepromise was town and it would have been very easy for him to justify killing of FP, so then why not kill him? however i am most suspicious of zelblade, he has spent the vast majority of the time apologizing for his noobiness and hasnt giving a good justification as to why he isnt mafia also what does this even mean????? also in the rest of your post you accuse 3 ppl without actually being conclusive about anything, ie oh hes mafia because i am suspicious you entire post seems as though it has been set up to mislead people and you keep attacking me for being confusing, yet my posts havnt been confusing at all you havent contributed to any investigations you jumped on the fakepromise vote and you accuse me based off of nothing so now tell me why would you not be mafia? Please do not defend yourself and start arguments and clutter the thread. Please only post 1 mafia suspect. Please also post 1 person who you think is town. Straying from format is disruptive and unhelpful. You look suspicious for not following the plan. Please stay on course. We are collecting data. Arguments hinder collection. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
As I keep reiterating, town has much to gain by sharing information. We have all day tomorrow - 48 hours - to lynch. That is enough time to form analysis and argue. We have 5 hours to collect information. The focus is collecting information. I want to do it before day comes as to provide our blues with the most information possible. I trust in their judgement, and so more information just helps them make better choices at protecting etc. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On January 28 2012 07:10 SacredSystem wrote: chocolate is mafia simberto is town You initially picked Zelblade and zarepath before that. Are you sticking with zelblade? Ignore Chocolate as your defensive backlash clutters the thread, and hinders our information process. Also give a reason why you think Simberto is town. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On January 28 2012 07:15 Chocolate wrote: I just posted again Also SS please explain your reasoning; I have explained mine and it is nowhere near conclusive, meaning that i'm not very certain your are mafia, just that you are the best candidate in my eyes right now to be one. Thank you for posting. However, SS please do not explain your reasoning against Chocolate at this time. We do not want a SS vs Chocolate argument derailing the information gathering plan. The highest priority right now is getting information into our blue's hands. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On January 28 2012 07:18 DoYouHas wrote: Sl0osh, please don't attack them for breaking your format. If getting lurkers truly involved is your goal, having a couple of them start arguing is exactly what we want. It is not like a few posts are going to distract you from the people remaining who haven't posted. You are cutting off a potential source of information. You are right, thank you. Can I ask how long / frequently you will be on till day? | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On January 28 2012 07:28 DoYouHas wrote: I will be checking this thread regularly until the day post, but I will be gone for a while shortly after 10EST. I'll check the thread again at least once between when I get back and when I go to bed. Oh ok. I'll an appointment in about an hour and won't be back until around maybe 1or 2EST? I wanted someone active who I can trust to keep things on track, so could you do it when I am gone? | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
I have an appointment. Also, List of haven't posted yet (in bold) Bromancipate, Cosmos you won't be taken off until you respond to my post. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On January 28 2012 07:56 CosmosXAM wrote: I just see that deflecting arguments away from themselves by simply pointing out other suspicious people doesn't seem like very town like behavior. Also at that time they had both been voting in unison to my knowledge with DoYouHas being the one to change his vote. To be honest there is now so much going on in the game that when I try to look at a single person whom I think to be mafia that my information get convoluted, at this time I am just trying to take a step back, slow things down and try to glance at the wider picture and scope of things. Thanks for posting. I understand that there is a lot going on and it is good to take a step back and look (I know it helped me a lot after day 1 ended). So I won't ask you on people reads but on your logic (not because I'm suspicious of you but because I want more than 1 post from each lurker). I just see that deflecting arguments away from themselves by simply pointing out other suspicious people doesn't seem like very town like behavior. Could you explain your logic here? | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On January 28 2012 08:06 DoYouHas wrote: In what way would you be painting a target on your back? With how scattered the focus of this thread is, you are not going to draw any more suspicion than anyone else by providing the mediums sized post that sl0osh is asking for. In fact, not answering makes you easier to push into being lynched tomorrow. The risk is extremely low that you will be killed tonight for answering. The risk of drawing too much town attention to yourself and wasting our time is high. Please just answer the question or do one better and give us something to work with. Adding onto that, there is new information influx once day 2 starts. If we let people wait until day 2 to post, then they can't be held accountable to their positions in the case of conflicting night results. Mafia escape the unnerving challenge of stating things that could be flat out contradicted by night actions. | ||
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slOosh
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Bromancipate, Cosmos, still waiting for your response. Adam, you paint a target on your back by the town by not responding. Please post and help town. Appointment is coming up soon, but I'll be back around 1/2EST to post what I've gleaned from this plan and help interpret the night actions. | ||
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First, I am almost certain that there are multiple mafia posting against each other. Compare day 1 and day 2 posts. We have 1 lynch. Remember that guys. A terrible thing would be using all our attention and focus on trying to find all the mafia rather than killing the mafia we have already found. On January 28 2012 17:35 Simberto wrote: Just one thing i wanted to say: DoYouHas claiming having been shot at does not make him 100% town, even without a counterclaim. It could be a mafia ploy to get someone 100% trusted by not shooting at all. I don't think that this is what happened (it sounds pretty far-fetched), but one should still keep the possibility at the back of ones head. Anyway, will be gone for some hours, but when i am back i will take a look at the new stuff that happened more closely, and hopefully also at DoYouHases analysis of Zarepath, which i am really interested in as he is still the next best thing to a confirmed townie we have at the moment. I suggest throwing that possibility out since DoYouHas never had any suspicion on him and it makes no sense for mafia to waste a shot to enforce that. But to my main point: So check this out. DoYouHas claimed to be hit last night. Ok. So why would mafia shoot him? Why not me or Simberto, the people who most people had a town read on? Here's an observation of day 1, with a focus on slOosh(me), DoYouHas and Zarepath. I will ignore other stuff. (No need to open the links, just references if you need reminding) - I push for Zarepath Lynch - Zarepath defends himself - I continue the push, as I am still suspicious - Zarepath defends himself again - I back off to pressure lurkers Now look at DoYouHas. Look at the voting thread and see where his vote lies. It is on Zarepath along with me and FakePromise and CosmoXAM. He still holds a suspicion against Zarepath before the day lynch, whereas I do not (at least openly). On January 28 2012 16:23 DoYouHas wrote: First, I went after zelblade (after sl0osh did). I have not changed my stance on him, his first posts were scummy and his absence did not help. However he has promised to be much more active today so I am at least willing to see his new posts before condemning him. Conclusion: Mafia target the only one still suspicious of Zarepath. They have so much to gain from it that it makes sense that they would shoot him, and not me or Simberto. With all the attention on us two, it is more probable that any medic attention (if it existed) would not be on him. By killing him there is no one left to suspect Zarepath, who has established himself as an active person in the least, and I suspect the general notion of him being town will pervade our minds. No one has counterclaimed. DoYouHas was shot. With great analysis (which he probably started before the day ended) he attacks Zarepath. The night action makes sense. This is enough for me. A second party look at the situation helps me see much more clearer how suspicious Zarepath is, and there is great harmony with this and the night action. ##Vote Zarepath | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
That means there are 8 of us. 5. This game follows Extended Majority Lynch Rules. Majority = number of total voters/2 (rounded down) + 1. Unlike in traditional majority lynch, the lynch is NOT decided the moment that majority is reached. Instead, only the final vote count matters. If there is no majority at the deadline, the day ends with a no-lynch. Non-voters will be modkilled for failure to vote We need 7 to lynch. We must not be divided. We need to unite and lynch. Right now those on Sacred, please consider the analysis by DoYouHas and me, and move your votes to Zarepath. I'm also very suspicious on Sacred, but like I said we only have 1 lynch to make. If they are both mafia, then Zarepath is a better lynch as he has more presence and credibility (relative to Sacred). So unless you think Zarepath isn't mafia, people move your votes. Worst thing to have is a no-lynch as the lynch is the primary means of killing mafia. We don't have 4 vigi shots. If we want to win we need to use lynches to kill mafia. | ||
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On January 29 2012 12:47 zelblade wrote: As for the lynch today, I have read through the cases on zarepath and i certainly see how he could be the mafia godfather, and DoYouHas makes some good points on how he jumps onto the SS bandwagon which I (whum he suspects to be mafia) am pushing. Honestly I will still prefer to lynch SacredSystem due to how much he is dodging questions. Either way, I wouldnt mind lynching either as I believe both could be mafia. Then could I ask you to switch your vote onto Zarepath? We already have 5 on Zarepath and only 2 on Sacred, and we absolutely want to avoid splitting votes between two mafia. | ||
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On January 30 2012 07:18 Adam4167 wrote: Well, as it stands, zarepath now has 8 votes on him. This can only mean one thing. There are mafia voting for him. Since I know I'm town, at least one of the mafia team (if not more) are on this vote. There's always the possibility that his team has abandoned him, but I am really doubting it at this point. There's been almost no opposition to this lynch other then myself, and no other real case has appeared on day 2 other then mine on SacredSystem. Lynches that go too easy are almost universally mislynches. I concede that no other lynch is going through considering we are ~5 hours to crunch-time and everyone seems pretty sold on this one. Ill shift my vote closer to the deadline to prevent some kind of mass-unvote shenanigans if he is indeed mafia. I think his team did abandon him. And I think this based off my reads on who I think the other mafia players are - I believe that they lack enough credibility or presence to be able to convince people off a very strong analysis. So most likely mafia are doing their best to blend in with the zarepath lynch as much as possible and starting at night to push forth their own agenda. Mafia would not want to be the few people who did not vote Zarepath as they would receive the spotlight and so they fear this (towns people don't mind since they can justify themselves and are clear with their intentions. I think you unafraid to keep your vote on SS is an example of this). If anything I would be surprised if there weren't 2, even more so if there weren't 3 mafia voting for Zarepath. | ||
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slOosh
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Next up we should take out zelblade. Only reason why he isn't dead yet is because we focused and killed zarepath. I don't even have to post analysis or anything as it's been done well enough before, just pushed aside b/c zarepath lynch. slOosh post (day 1) DoYouHas post (day 1) Bromancipate post (day 2) On January 28 2012 17:24 zelblade wrote: You claim that zarepath never contributed any analysis. But what sort of analysis have YOU provided? Looking through your filter, all your attacks are flimsy. Then you got this business where he attacks SS with that slight defense of Zarepath. We get him next lynch OKOK? On a more serious note I think we as town should now focus on who the fourth mafia could be. We have this night, the next day (lynch zelblade) , the next night and the day after to lynch the final mafia (incorporating Midnight's vigi shot). That is a nice 6 days but doesn't hurt to start now eh? | ||
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slOosh
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On January 29 2012 05:07 zelblade wrote: Are you confusing me with zarepath or something? I am the one that attacked you, not him. Establishing that Zarepath did not attack SS. On January 30 2012 07:59 slOosh wrote: I think his team did abandon him. And I think this based off my reads on who I think the other mafia players are - I believe that they lack enough credibility or presence to be able to convince people off a very strong analysis. So most likely mafia are doing their best to blend in with the zarepath lynch as much as possible and starting at night to push forth their own agenda. Mafia would not want to be the few people who did not vote Zarepath as they would receive the spotlight and so they fear this (towns people don't mind since they can justify themselves and are clear with their intentions. I think you unafraid to keep your vote on SS is an example of this). If anything I would be surprised if there weren't 2, even more so if there weren't 3 mafia voting for Zarepath. On January 30 2012 13:12 zelblade wrote: Nice lynch :D Since it seems that most of us were on zarepath, I guess that the mafia probably have little to no thread presence. Suggest we take a hard look at the lurkers for the next lynch. As stated earlier I need to go now and will be away from the thread for quite a while. Copies my post and then misdirects us to focus on lurkers (we're nailing balt11t and town presence is strong enough that we don't need lurkers to find mafia). Does exactly what I guessed. Remember to $$Vote Zelblade | ||
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On January 30 2012 13:31 Adam4167 wrote: Well now I look like a complete tool, thanks for that zarepath. I approve of that vig shot. I wouldn't have announced it in thread though, as they may have been hiding their role-blocker, as in the last newbie game. Could you provide a link to game? Did they like, withhold the roleblock powers day 1? In either case I doubt that Midnight would fakeclaim vigi, shoot in public against someone who everyone is fine with getting shot, and so in the event balt11t isn't dead we can just kill him with lynch later? I guess it buys mafia an additional day but that has potential to give us additional cop investigations (if we have one I dunno) and more time to find the last mafia. | ||
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If anything could you put it on Zelblade? I know some people mentioned that they don't think SacredSystem is scum. Like in the case of zarepath before, I would really like us to lynch one mafia at a time. I think we all agree zelblade is scum, and so as to avoid division and a no-lynch can we go for zelblade? In the meantime we can discuss SS since we have the time. | ||
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You refers to Bromancipate / Probulous. | ||
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On January 30 2012 22:11 zelblade wrote: I wasnt trying to establish that zarepath didnt attack SS. That post was really goddammed wierd, and I couldnt understand it, and I believed that he might be confusing me and zarepath, and I just asked him to clarify.(which he did) Really dont see how clarifying about a confusing post that confused me is scummy. When i posted this post, I was in a rush to go out and didnt have time to read through the thread properly. Only skimmed through the posts after the day post before typing that before going out. I didnt actually see that you had already posted that. Clarifying a confusing post is fine. It's the manner in which you did it that is strange. I don't see how that second sentence "I am the one that attacked you, not him" is necessary. All it does is try to clear Zarepath of suspicion (from Sacred at least) And with your post that was "written in haste": Since it seems that most of us were on zarepath, I guess that the mafia probably have little to no thread presence. That's a pretty big logical jump you made there. Premise: Almost everyone voted Zarepath. Conclusion. Mafia have little to no thread presence. Its too big to be an oversight caused to due hastiness. This oversight is because you are working off already existing ideas (namely mine) and thus felt no need to explain your thinking process. Anyways I am dead set against you and you will be next up for lynch. Day 1 info was good enough for me to lynch you and this new stuff isn't clearing you at all. Remember guys $$Vote Zelblade | ||
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On January 30 2012 14:30 Bromancipate wrote: Woohoo! A red lynch! Congrats guys, I wish I could have helped but my contribution for the next lynch is below. Nice Vig shot by MG there. Not surprisingly I agree with Adam that it would have been better to claim near the day break but hopefully mafia cannot roleblock you. Alright, business time. Here are my reads. Town
Now to the important stuff SCUM SacredSystem Before I begin I would like to thank Adam in particular for providing a nice case on SS. This is by no means merely a copy of that, but I feel it appropriate to give credit where it is due. SS may not be a controversial target, but he has been vocal. My biggest concern with SS is his inconsistency and contradictory style. I am trying to avoid PBPA as I find them too long to read and prone to comfirmatory bias. Here is my summary of the filter of SacredSystem. He starts off by pointing out why random lynching is a bad idea and targets both Fake and Zare for supporting the idea. Then he straight up votes Fake promise. Fine you have to choose I have no problem with that. But when Cosmos points out that he goes from general suspicion to voting after the MG vote he blasts Cosmos with He doesn’t refute what Cosmos was saying, he merely deflects it with a nice OMGUS. He doesn’t even try to explain what is wrong with what Cosmos says merely that he is making assumptions. Well, SS made the assumption that because Fake supported random lynching even with a 30% success rate he must be mafia. Balt pushes him further to explain and he asks “is fakepromise agreeing with a 30% success rate not logic enough for you”. Which is fine except that the reason SS gave was … Nothing. He was suspicious of Fake for the 30% thing but he never stated that was his reason for voting for him. Then he backtracks by stating This is daming for me. He is now taking back his reason for voting for Fakepromise. He has not explicitly stated his reasoning and when called out for it backtracks but doesn’t remove his vote. Then when zarepath (I know he was mafia but he was right) states “who's probably just a townie with bad arguments.” he flat out states that Fake IS mafia. He has provided no reasoning for his vote but is 100% certain that Fake was mafia. Why the change? Well others had started voting for Fake so he could keep pushing that wagon and get one of us lynched. Well this is all very suspicious but how does it fit with a mafia plan? Simple really, SS knew that Zarepath was mafia and knew that Fake was town. The random lynch thing was a nice way to cast suspicion on the townie proposing the idea and push for his lynch. He was being deliberately oblique and when called out for it, waves away the questions. He never actually stated his reasoning for his vote so he didn’t have to defend his logic. Then when others joined the wagon he could sit back and let MG and the rest of us push it along. But Brothers, what of Zarepath? SS made a lovely first post after the lynch. He doesn’t state anything about his decision to supply zero reasoning for lynching a townie, or to go after the other person who was supporting a random lynch, no instead he states Aside from the obvious WIFOM, huh? According to my reading Fake was mafia because he was in support of random lynching despite the odds. If that is the case why would you assume that the guy who proposed the idea is not mafia? Then he attacks zelblade for apologizing and not sufficiently proving his innocence. linky How is that mafia motivated? Maybe, just maybe, he actually is new and is having trouble proving his innocence. How have you proved your innocence? By no reason voting for a townie? Then he jumps on Chocolate for quietly suggesting that SS is mafia because he is being deliberately vague (ring a bell anyone?) and he attacks him for it. A townie would ask what was unclear and explain it. A mafia would deflect with a nice OMGUS. Now Chocolate’s post was weak, but the response from SS was typical mafia smokescreen. Then he goes back to zelblade being a noob and now Chocolate is mafia. His reason for Chocolate being mafia “now i think chocolate is mafia because hes labeling me as mafia and using confusing posts as his means of convincing everyone, even though he said my posts were concise, which points out a clear contridiction on chocolates logic”. No my friend, it does not. Your posts can be concise but provide no analysis, no clarity and be obvious attempts to deflect suspicion. In fact, it is probably easier if you don’t say much. Then Adam rightly calls out SS and he responds with this beauty Contrast this with his earlier post I will go on if people want me to but I am aware that this is becoming a wall of text. TLDR SacredSystem is mafia because he has been deliberately oblique and refuses to be clear about his reasons for voting for people. He has been contradictory throwing suspicion around with no analysis to back it up. When he has been called out for this he has responded with anger and not with explanation. ##Vote SacredSystem /Probulous I found a 4th mafia candidate guys!!! Notice the word candidate: I invite you guys to look at him with me. Here are some reasons why he warrants a much closer look. 1) In his town reads, DoYouHas is missing. The guy who claimed he was shot, and moved to lynch the mafia. What kind of oversight is this? 2) He is one of the late voters of Zarepath lynch. zarepath - 11 DoYouHas CosmosXAM slOosh SacredSystem MidnightGladius zelblade Chocolate Bromancipate Simberto Adam4167 balt11t On bandwagons against town, mafia want like the 2~6 voting spots. They don't want first since it puts them in spotlight and don't want to be last since it draws suspicion. On bandwagons against mafia, mafia want the spots a bit down the list. Maybe like 4~8. They don't want to take 2 or 3 since it can build momentum in the lynch, but when it is clear that they can't save him they have to get on otherwise it is too suspicious. A bit late due to caution to the hop on me thinks. 3) Votes for SacredSystem. All I have been doing is making town focus votes, and I think I was very clear that I wanted zelblade next. I would be fine if he built his analysis of Sacred and suggested we go for him after zelblade but this almost seems like an interruption / distraction from the zelblade lynch. 4) I don't think SacredSystem is the 4th mafia. Say the mafia are Zarepath, zelblade, balt11t and SacredSystem. Watch the interactions between the zelblade and SacredSystem in the thread, especially after night 1 ended. This isn't bussing. Mafia aren't going to bus their remaining members. It doesn't make sense that sacred is the 4th. (This point is assuming zelblade and balt11t are mafia, but I think everyone concurs with me on this). This was actually the trigger for me. As soon as I saw that he thought it was SacredSystem I looked around and found these points. I know there are stronger analysts out there so I'm asking you guys to help me out here. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
Further general readings: I looked into Bromancipate's analysis of SacredSystem a bit more. Looking at his actions it seems like he is a new player trying to prove his innocence and frustrated that he cannot. I'll take a piece from the analysis: How is that mafia motivated? Maybe, just maybe, he actually is new and is having trouble proving his innocence. How have you proved your innocence? By no reason voting for a townie? He did have a reason voting for a townie. It is very clear that he has problems with the 30% statement. Then he jumps on Chocolate for quietly suggesting that SS is mafia because he is being deliberately vague (ring a bell anyone?) and he attacks him for it. A townie would ask what was unclear and explain it. A mafia would deflect with a nice OMGUS. Now Chocolate’s post was weak, but the response from SS was typical mafia smokescreen. He lashes out quite passionately at Chocolate for suspecting him. Another "newbie" tell.I think I would say that a coolheaded townie would ask what was unclear and explain it. An OMGUS is not always a mafia tell, but is also natural in newbie games, especially when emotions get involved. Then he goes back to zelblade being a noob and now Chocolate is mafia. Yes he flip flops a lot, but he is very clear and transparent in his actions.Which leads me to the conclusion that he is indeed an innocent townie having difficulties and frustrations trying to prove his innocence. Also he is 4th in voting for Zarapath. You might say 'slOosh didn't you say mafia is like 4~8 or something'? The order isn't so important as the timing. He voted when it was still not clear that Zarapath would be lynched or not. Mafia would not add additional momentum on a mafia lynch wagon that is still uncertain. Along the same lines I get a town read from Cosmos. He voted for Zarepath day 1 (before my analysis) and day 2 (after getting backing of DoYouHas). Mafia don't start bandwagons against their own. Notice he is 1st to vote (on day 1) and 2nd to vote (on day 2). I feel like I'm posting a lot of info so I'll stop here and let others have their says. Remember guys, activity and discussion is always good for town (especially since there is much less mafia influence this is prime time for getting thoughts out without people trying to confuse or misdirect). TLDR: (last 3 posts) We lynching Zelblade tomorrow. We lynch any other suspects the next day. I think Sacred probably town. Same with Cosmos. Bromancipate is worth looking into as potential 4th mafia candidate. | ||
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On January 30 2012 14:45 Bromancipate wrote: I will take a closer look at zelblade. I am still trying to catch up on everyone's agenda here. SS just screamed mafia too me hence my case on him. I understand you wanting to consolidate lynch targets. My only caution is that this allows mafia to wagon the vote really easily. We had this in my last game where everyone (I mean everyone, including the lynch target himself) voted for Sheth. Now he turned out to be scum but the lynch gave us no info because there was no requirement to provide decent reasoning. So for now my target remains SacredScum but I will take a closer look at zelblade and come back to you. PS Jitsu is sleeping so I can't confirm what his thoughts were on zelblade. /Probulous Oh shoot my bad just re read this. It throws my #3 out the window. I forget to treat you like a hydra so I'm not sure who knows what. | ||
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On January 28 2012 12:13 Simberto wrote: Now, just in case that you are not sure how to react to this, since mafia already know whom they hit on, it would be really useful for us to know that too. Since both the medic and the target get notified on a safed hit, the best option is to have the targeted person say that they were safed. If you are a veteran and got safed by your veteran powers, ALSO state that you were safed by a medic, i think we gain more from mafia not knowing whether a medic exists than we would gain from knowing for ourselves. On January 28 2012 14:31 zelblade wrote: I am in the middle of school during the deadline, and as such cannot post close to it unlike you guys. As for not posting throughout the night, some crap came up and I couldnt find the time to catch up with the thread. Will be alot more active from now on. Catching up on the thread now, will post thoughts in a bit. Also I believe that since there was no kill last night, the person who got hit (protected by a medic/vet power) should claim that they were shot. Mafia already know who they shot anyways, and it does help to confirm you assuming no one couter claims the shot. Since town shouldnt in any case lie about this anyway, if no one counter claims the shot, we can assume that that person is very likely town. On January 30 2012 07:59 slOosh wrote: I think his team did abandon him. And I think this based off my reads on who I think the other mafia players are - I believe that they lack enough credibility or presence to be able to convince people off a very strong analysis. So most likely mafia are doing their best to blend in with the zarepath lynch as much as possible and starting at night to push forth their own agenda. Mafia would not want to be the few people who did not vote Zarepath as they would receive the spotlight and so they fear this (towns people don't mind since they can justify themselves and are clear with their intentions. I think you unafraid to keep your vote on SS is an example of this). If anything I would be surprised if there weren't 2, even more so if there weren't 3 mafia voting for Zarepath. On January 30 2012 13:12 zelblade wrote: Nice lynch :D Since it seems that most of us were on zarepath, I guess that the mafia probably have little to no thread presence. Suggest we take a hard look at the lurkers for the next lynch. As stated earlier I need to go now and will be away from the thread for quite a while. Stuff like this makes me continue to think Zelblade is mafia. My leeway on SS is based upon my belief that Zelblade is indeed mafia (along with balt11t and Zarepath) and via their interactions with SS I don't see at all how SS could be mafia in that situation. On January 31 2012 08:33 Bromancipate wrote: You have hindsight bias here. Zarepath defended himself saying that his plan was just a ploy to generate discussion. People believed this or at least gave him benefit of doubt. We didn't know (100% upon flip) that Zarepath was mafia till day 2. On day 1, no one vocally suspected him until me, then a few others.So why push Fake first up? Why not zarepath? He was the one who proposed the idea. I don't like how he just happened to choose the townie of the two with reasoning that could explain a vote for the mafia. Especially that the mafia guy was the one who suggested random lynching. He doesn't even come straight out and say it. He never said "I am voting for Fakepromise because he supported random lynching even with a 30% success rate." It is one piece in the puzzle but it sets the tone. On January 31 2012 08:33 Bromancipate wrote: I cannot answer what motives he had, nor can anyone but him. He didn't choose a townie over mafia. He chose someone suspicious over someone else suspicious. With day 2 my point is that he voted before the wagon got going.Fourth. He pushed the lynch of Fakepromise because he was in support of an idea that Zarepath presented. Why did he not vote Zarepath first? He votes show that he chose a townie over a mafia when he had the exact same reason for voting for either of them. He only voted Zarepath when the wagon got going. /Probulous I'm not defending his actions, but I doubt his mafia alignment based on (what I think of) Zelblade's. If Zelblade flips town I would totally go for SS. I honestly thought he was mafia during night 1 when I pushed for town/mafia reads and he totally flipped out and started verbally flailing at Chocolate and doing all those things you pointed out. However my read on Zelblade as mafia is firm and therefore, I am treating SS as a really reckless townie unless Zelblade flips green. Summary: I am giving leeway to SS based on my belief that Zelblade is mafia. It is conditional leeway. Hypothetically if there was room for another mafia member on the team I would totally agree with you and move to lynch SS. However because there are only 4 and I cannot see how mafia team could be Zarepath, Zelblade, balt11t and SS, I am inclined to believe SS is just a confusing, anti-town townie (much like FakePromise). My read on Zelblade > My read on SacredSystem. | ||
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On January 31 2012 11:28 CosmosXAM wrote: I agree with you on pretty much everything slOosh except If you look on page 10 I was actually the first to suggest zarepath, you made your point on page 11, not trying to say anything I just wouldn't like to be forgotten about that. Shoot my bad. Yea, credit to where credit is due. | ||
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On January 31 2012 11:10 Chocolate wrote: I don't really like this. It seems pretty risky to let bad/scummy play go unpunished just because you don't think these two could both be mafia. Is it unlikely that they are both mafia? Yes. Is it possible? Who knows. I just think these are dangerous waters, because two players are "scummy" and yet you're only letting one actually be scum, when we still have two spots left (I'm pretty convinced balt is scum. We'll see.). I'm not "letting" one be scum. I think I made it clear in my response to Probulous that I think zelblade is much more likely to be mafia, and based off of his interactions with Sacred that it only makes sense that they are together 1 mafia and 1 town (opposed to 2 mafia). Also, since we have a full day afterwards (48 hours) I can take in the new night information and adjust my position accordingly. It isn't as if I declared my stance and I am unmovable in my thoughts. However, I do agree with you and others when we should throw caution into the wind. It just irks me when people are overly cautious to the point that it paralyses them from moving. As for my reads: DoYouHas: Claimed to get hit last night. Pushed forth our first mafia lynch. Unafraid to call out other townies on logical mistakes (such as mine and Simberto's). Desires more discussion and provides good analysis. MidnightGladius: Claiming a vigi shot publically along with clear analysis against a hard time lurker. Hoping for no roleblock as getting rid of balt11t is helpful as it reduces uncertainties. Simberto: Active, has provided new contributions (rather than always posting off of others) and has no fear of his votes getting potentially spotlighted (as he provides his reasoning every time he switches). Only thing weird about him is his WIFOMs, but I think this is because he is very, very cautious. (which I said above I don't like so I'd like to encourage him to speak with a little less fear) balt11t: MG's case sums it up. Zelblade: Look at my case before Bromanicipate's post and then my response to it. SacredSystem: In the off chance that Zelblade is green, I totally agree with Bromancipate & Adam's analysis. I would have gone for him if I didn't feel so strongly about Zelblade. Bromancipate: As stated before I forgot that he is a hydra that may have two differing opinions between the heads. I agree with the Jitsu head(?) but I'm confused how to treat them. Have to consider null until they get together, work it out and post a united viewpoint. Chocolate: Only talks about SS in his filter and then makes the statement On January 30 2012 02:19 Chocolate wrote: I'm voting for zarepath because he seems the most scummy out of everyone right now and because if we don't lynch today we'll be in a pretty bad position if mafia get a kill tonight. Worth looking out for. | ||
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slOosh
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On January 31 2012 11:49 Bromancipate wrote: Town Bromancipate DoYouHas - His aggression to SS and his logical analysis confirms his alignment for me. The shot is an added bonus. sl0osh Adam4167 - Explained previously MG - Claimed Vig and if Balt dies is pretty much confirmed. Null Zelblade - I can explain his actions from both a town or mafia POV so hence he is null. Jitsu is agrees with this. CosmosXAM - Hasn't posted a lot but his early pressure on Zarepath brings me back to null. He needs to be more active. Chocolate - Not much to go on. Did call out SS early but needs to post more. Simberto - Posts a lot but there are a lot of contradictions in what he says. I can provide more info if asked. Mafia SacredSystem balt11t, probably dead That leaves one mafia in our null list. We am more inclined to think that Zelbalde is town which leaves Cosmos, Chocolate and Simberto. Jitsu and Probu had a discussion earlier. Through the talkings, Probu urged me to read through Zelblade's filter again. I did. I see a lot of play reminiscent of a gentlemen by the name of CatsnHats, who I tunneled pretty much all game once and he turned out to be town. For right now, at least, we are going to keep it at a null read until we can make a more solid read during Day3. I see a lot of medicority. What do you think slOosh? Ah was writing up post when you posted that. Like I said, Simberto seems like overly cautious town. I agree with you on Chocolate that beside the SS thing he hasn't posted much more, same with Cosmos (who is slightly more town imo since his relation with Zarepath). If other people like DoYouHas and Adam think that Sacred is mafia more than Zelblade I will go with that since I trust in their logical 3rd party analysis (Adam was wrong on Zarepath but had good reasoning so it is town read) | ||
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I will look into DYH's reads before he posts to see if I come to same conclusions. | ||
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My thoughts (before I influence myself with DYH's points to see if they match up) + Show Spoiler + Biggest thing is his constant insistence on Zelblade from day 1. Again and again he brings up the name. Is it that the way he does it is suspicious? His liberal usage of the word scummy? I looked at my filter (for the first time, and it was weird O.o) and tried comparing how we both push for the lynch. I guess I'm very straightforward with my intentions with a clear reminder of $$Vote Zelblade while Simberto drops his name here and there, usually with some other names as to disguise it? On January 28 2012 17:35 Simberto wrote: This was one of the WIFOM things I talked about in my Simberto town read. I thought he was overly cautious. My objective analysis posted a few minutes before:Just one thing i wanted to say: DoYouHas claiming having been shot at does not make him 100% town, even without a counterclaim. It could be a mafia ploy to get someone 100% trusted by not shooting at all. I don't think that this is what happened (it sounds pretty far-fetched), but one should still keep the possibility at the back of ones head. Anyway, will be gone for some hours, but when i am back i will take a look at the new stuff that happened more closely, and hopefully also at DoYouHases analysis of Zarepath, which i am really interested in as he is still the next best thing to a confirmed townie we have at the moment. On January 31 2012 11:51 slOosh wrote: Also, since we have a full day afterwards (48 hours) I can take in the new night information and adjust my position accordingly. It isn't as if I declared my stance and I am unmovable in my thoughts. However, I do agree with you and others when we should throw caution into the wind. It just irks me when people are overly cautious to the point that it paralyses them from moving. ... Simberto: Active, has provided new contributions (rather than always posting off of others) and has no fear of his votes getting potentially spotlighted (as he provides his reasoning every time he switches). Only thing weird about him is his WIFOMs, but I think this is because he is very, very cautious. (which I said above I don't like so I'd like to encourage him to speak with a little less fear) Is this a sign of mafia? Being overly cautious? On January 28 2012 12:05 Simberto wrote: Oh, i am still alive. I actually wanted to post before the night ended, but it seems like i was to slow. Nice btw, no deaths. Whoever did that, gratulations. I really don't see mafia not killing anybody. I read somewhere (Mafiascum) that people who congratulate medic saves (dunno why he assumed that it was medic not vet) are most likely mafia or the medic themselves. But since it is my first game I really didn't know if this was reliable or not. But then again I have this bias where I trust DYH's thoughts, and its hard to distinguish if I like his logic or the fact that he is town I trust (who happens to provide good analysis). | ||
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On January 31 2012 18:21 zelblade wrote: I really dont see how that one statement is scummy at all. That post was, as said really bloody confusing and i dont see in any way how it is strange. The 2nd sentance is just an explanation I believed that he had made a mistake. You seriously are reading too much into this and I am in no way trying to push away suspision from zarepath. As for the 2nd part, I was already thinking that the lynch seemed really easy with basically little to no defence whilst i was sleeping, and I thought that it might be a mislynch due to the lack of defence. When he flipped scum, I simply came to the conclusion that the remaining mafia probably arent very infulential in the thread. Could have typed that out, but as i said, I was in a rush. I seriously think that you are tunneling me at this point. I am inclined to believe Bromancipate's objective analysis of my thought process and I have to agree with you. (I don't know why I was so sold out on you being mafia, even though objectively SS is a much more anti-town poster. Ha, I guess I am a clear case of this) I am sorry for tunneling, and thank you Probulous for straight up pointing it out. Will be posting on Simberto thoughts soon. | ||
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On January 31 2012 18:31 Simberto wrote: Could you explain what you mean by being the "influential factor"?Note that all of this followed a case of yours in which you basically explained how i got completely played by mafia throughout the whole of Day1. I hope you see how i become more conscious about changing my vote afterwards, and don't want to be the influential factor again. Also, i was still convinced that zelblade was the better lynch, and thus left my vote on him to open up that avenue for others. But i should probably have made a better case against him. I felt like i hade made my reasons to believe that more clear in earlier posts, especially since zelblade seems to perfectly fit into every mafia group built up at that point. As to the error, you are correct. I am not sure how that happened, i was absolutely convinced that the chronology was differently, even upon reading it multiple times. I think i simply missed that first post and only noticed the one after yours. I don't think you had a vote that decided the lynch or not, nor does it make sense that you don't want to be influential. Are you so scared of making mistakes that you fear influence? Could you also explain what the purpose of "open[ing] up the avenue" is? It's not like we aren't allowed to vote zelblade unless someone first votes him. On January 31 2012 20:02 Simberto wrote: You are wrong about that. I am innocent, and will do anything necessary to prove it. I made some mistakes during day1, most of which consisted of being to easily influenced, and when i realised that afterwards (through the day2 zarepath case), i decided to be much more careful when posting and to be more sure of that what i am posting is what i myself actually think, and not me confirmation-biasing what someone else posted before. As a result, i posted less and less specific things. This is now being constructed as a scummy change of behaviour, when it really is the only logical way to react. How is it logical to post less transparently and clearly? I posted very clearly and it was great because others have pointed out logical fallacies in my thoughts, which is exactly what I welcome and want as a town. If you are so scared of being wrong and making mistakes, the logical response is putting everything out there and welcoming critique, not hiding it all. On January 26 2012 04:00 Simberto wrote: Distraction + "to town", which is very suspicious, as zarepath pointed out, and I honestly thought this was a terrible typo since 1) I'm the one who noted that, and more importantly 2) zarepath never actually pointed anything about zelblade as his only justification was his random lynch process. But now .... it's not looking so good. I really want to hear your responses and explanations Simberto. | ||
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On February 01 2012 01:09 Simberto wrote: As it turned out, during day1, i got abused by mafia to promote their lynches, as in the FakePromise vs CosmosXAMs case where i basically did exactly what they wanted me to. Thus, i became more careful and did not want to instantly jump onto any lynch that appeared when i was convinced that an other lynch might have been better. I feared that if i switch onto zarepath, others would follow without thinking, as it apparently happened during day1. On February 01 2012 01:09 Simberto wrote: Not necessarily "not allowed", but still, people who would be inclined to vote zelblade are much more unlikely to do so if they notice that noone else is voting for him. First you say that you fear voting as others would follow without reason. Then you actually go and vote early on without that fear on day 2. As most of your defense seems to be self-victimization right now, this is a glaring contradiction in your thoughts and actions. Glaring because you assert that you were "abused" and "manipulated" to explain your non-commital actions but then you go and do exactly what you said you were trying so hard to avoid. On February 01 2012 01:16 Simberto wrote: This is weak defense since you found a hypothetical thought that can explain the situation and then believe it. It is weak since you are the one who brings up the most WIFOMs and urges caution in everyone esp. with the DoYouHas' hit claim, yet your thinking process is "oh this thought explains my actions, so it must have been what I was thinking".Ok, after reading the context, i am even more confused. There is nothing there that could have made me think of zarepath. I think i just always thought that that post pointing out the "to town" was by zarepath, which would also explain why i thought him significantly less scummy than he actually was when rereading his filter, i thought he had contributed stuff, but apparently he did not. On February 01 2012 01:24 Simberto wrote: You were suspicious of all the lurkers as were we. Being the first to do so doesn't really mean it is "significantly non-scummy". Honestly it was MidnightGladius who gets all the credit for pegging him with the vig shot. Everyone treated him as 2nd priority lurker.And to avoid this whole thing being to one-sided, i want to point out two significantly non-scummy things i did. I was the first person to be suspicious of balt11t because of the way he attacked FakePromise, even though i should have followed that through after FakePromise flipped green. At least i hope that some of the suspicion that was on him is a result of that. I was the first person to accept the day1 case against zarepath. At that point in time there was a very real chance that that case could succeed, and if it had succeeded, me supporting it might have very well been the deciding factor. Sure, it did not succeed, but that is not something i knew at that point in time, when there were still more then 2.5 hours on the clock. I only did change my vote away from zarepath when it became totally clear that there was no chance that we would get a lynch on him. DoYouHas points out in his Zarepath case that I was slow in posting my case against Zarepath on day 1 that we did not have enough time to swing the vote. You are trying to claim credit for hypothetical situations. Since you claim not mafia and there are two remaining, beside Zelblade who do you think the last mafia is and why? | ||
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On February 01 2012 06:08 Simberto wrote: As for my scum reads, upon rereading the thread i noticed that there is some pretty hard lurking going on. Now, this might sound like an easy copout, but it is still true. Now, this might also sound like picking an easy target given my situation, but of those, I think that Chocolate is almost definitively scum. He did not contribute anything, at all. This can easily checked by reading his filter, which has about the same proportions as that of balt11t now. I won't bother to quote these posts. There are simply almost no posts, and he only posts when he is absolutely forced to. Also, his posts do not contain anything at all. Note that even Adam who started one day and was not active for a long time, too, has more posts then Chocolate, and easily far more content. I actually think that SacredSystem looks pretty clean at the moment, even though i do not really like his style of posting. Adam is a bit strange due to lack of information, but certainly not someone one should lynch today. Bromancipate is not really conclusive due to there being multiple persons behind that name, but i don't think he is mafia at the moment. I am also still highly suspicious of zelblade, but i am getting to the point where i am asking myself if i am not just tunnelvisioning him. I will take a closer look on that. Also, i will go to sleep in about an hour, so if you want an answer to any further questions today, please ask them soon, otherwise you will get it tomorrow. I agree with you on the lurking. I do believe that Chocolate should speak up as we progress into lategame. There are so many things to talk about and really no reason to remain quiet as a town. Right now, being neutral on people's lists is something that warrants inspection. However, these are things I don't like. You don't expound on your reasonings on SacredSystem - WHY does he look clean? And WHY do you think that Adam is strange on lack of info even though you say in the same post that he has content? On that note I would like Chocolate to comment on his opinions. Day 3 and I'm still not too sure what you actually think. For instance, what do you think about Simbarto, SacredSystem and Zelblade? Please be clear in revealing your thoughts (e.g. I think this person is mafia because of this, and this other guy is town because of this etc.) Beside your small explanations everytime you vote, you don't really have strong reads on anyone, and most of your posts are comments on other people's plays (without reference to what this says about their alignments). | ||
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I do not like SacredSystem's style of posting. It is really hard to follow and sometimes gets too aggressive to the point of condescension and disrespectful tone. Perhaps this is null. But also notice how he is always personal in his posts (the prominence of the 2nd person pronoun). He isn't talking to town but talking to people specifically in town. Almost everypost. Dropping the assumption that Zelblade is mafia and the logical framework in which I think a zarepath zelblade sacredsystem balt11t is impossible, I think that SacredSystem is mafia. With Zelblade, I looked again and tried to forget the apologetic tone on day 1 to be as objective as I can. It is clear that he thinks that SacredSystem is mafia, and has not let go of it from day 2. It isn't a deflection tactic as he isn't redirecting focus on him to SacredSystem when people suspect him. Transparency of posting and intent is town read. I think Zelblade is slightly town (I am trusting in more experienced players' red such as yours when I drop the apologetic tone of day 1. Doesn't give as much content as I want, but very clearly sets himself against SacredSystem) I don't like Simberto's WIFOMs and I've been asking him more questions to get a clearer picture of who he is. I don't like how convenient it is that all his mafia-esque actions are explained away by the ingenious mafia puppeteering. Add onto that his response to my "Zarepath typo catch" On February 01 2012 01:09 Simberto wrote: I seriously don't know what that is. I assume that i was thinking about something else related to zarepath at that moment, and thus used the wrong name. I will look at that specific post in context to try to make sense of it. So far, even though this will probably be called WIFOM even though it is not, why would i do that intentionally if i was mafia? I don't see any way that would make sense at all. And if it is just a typo, i don't see how it would make me look any more or any less scummy, since i could have made that typo/being distracted if i was mafia just the way i made it now. On February 01 2012 01:16 Simberto wrote: Ok, after reading the context, i am even more confused. There is nothing there that could have made me think of zarepath. I think i just always thought that that post pointing out the "to town" was by zarepath, which would also explain why i thought him significantly less scummy than he actually was when rereading his filter, i thought he had contributed stuff, but apparently he did not. On February 01 2012 01:16 Simberto wrote: Well, i don't know what i thought half a week ago.I know that that post does not make any sense, so i must have either simply put in the wrong name by accident, or at that point in time believed it is the right name. Should i make up some bullshit why putting that name there makes sense when it obviously does not? I honestly thought this was just a typo and wanted to see what he thought, seeing as it can be construed as giving another mafia player credibility (like when Zarepath wanted to claim the original pressure on zelblade). He gives a WIFOM. Then he says is was an incorrect read on Zarepath. Then he says he doesn't remember. In the last line he mocks me how stupid it is to make something up to fit the story even though that is exactly what he did. Right now I think Simbarto is mafia. I would go for SacredSystem or Simbarto without the need of a Zelblade flip confirmation. Even without a flip, I think there is enough evidence for SacredSystem in the least, if not also Simbarto. | ||
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On February 01 2012 12:09 Adam4167 wrote: After rereading the thread in its entirety, ive noticed something. Zarepath pushing CosmosXAM as a lynch candidate on day 1 stemmed partly from CosmosXAM pointing the finger a Chocolate for being 'suspicious'. This is a textbook example of what is known as a 'Chainsaw Defense', which is when one mafia gets attacked by a townie, another mafia attacks the accuser to deflect suspicion back on the townie. Its right Here at the bottom of that horrible WIFOM'ey defense of FakePromise. Add on top of this, both times I've called him mafia, hes come out of lurker mode. I'm seeing too much in favor of voting for Chocolate, and not enough redeeming him. ##Vote Chocolate One thing that sticks out to me in Simberto's filter is the continual redirects onto balt11t. And There Are Lots And Lots Of Them So I guess I am posed with the question of was he doing this to pick up the 'town cred' after we inevitably killed balt? (because lets face it, that was going to happen, sooner rather than later) I do want to point out that in every single post balt11t is always in a list of people. A list of lurkers. A list of suspects. Zelblade is also in all of those posts. So you have to ask, is this a town thing to do? Is he contributing by pressuring / openly sharing all his suspicions on multiple people at once, or is he taking a non-commital stance that he can easily "go with the flow" and not be charged with error? | ||
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On February 01 2012 13:05 Adam4167 wrote: + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/792ta.jpg) Right. I'm resorting to paint here (oh gawd) to try and get a clearer picture of what everyone is saying. After taking in everyone's reads, I find these are the two most likely scum teams: Chocoloate/Zelblade or Simberto/SacredSystem As we begin to flip more of these names, this picture will solve itself. I am content with flipping anyone in the above diagram, with a special preference for Chocolate for the previously mentioned reasons. Wow that's awesome. I'd go for SacredSystem / Simberto team. Why? Look at particularly the black lines in the diagram. Who has the least justifiable black lines? (I.e. shouldn't be null unless they were same alignment) On January 28 2012 07:10 SacredSystem wrote: I ask him why he thinks Simberto is town. His response.chocolate is mafia simberto is town On January 28 2012 07:31 SacredSystem wrote: His town read is based off him "figuring out" chocolate has been lurking. Hmm.i was some what suspicious of zarepath, just as we all were, for sugessting random lynching, -being suspicious of him presents good town motives then zarepath consistently posted excuses and apologies simberto also figured out that chocolate hasnt contributed anything now i think chocolate is mafia because hes labeling me as mafia and using confusing posts as his means of convincing everyone, even though he said my posts were concise, which points out a clear contridiction on chocolates logic On February 01 2012 06:08 Simberto wrote: No reasoning. "Looks pretty clean". That's not an answer, that's an evasion.I actually think that SacredSystem looks pretty clean at the moment, even though i do not really like his style of posting. Look at Zelblade / Chocolate team. On February 01 2012 08:34 Chocolate wrote: "generally shady" also evasive, while "lurker like myself" is somewhat understandable/logical. All right let's do this. Town Sloosh- Great analysis, very active, driving discussion DYH- Good analysis, active, claimed being hit w/ no counterclaim Bromancipate- Kind of on the edge, but has been posting a lot lately w/ good analysis and is driving discussion Cosmos- started zarepath lynch Adam- playing well, contributing Don't know... SS- very hostile attitude, confusing posts, omgus a lot BUT is active and seems to be trying to do analysis Zellblade- just generally shady, lurker like myself Mafia?? Simberto- Now that everyone has pointed out his inconsistencies he seems to me to be a mafia, or at least the best current candidate for a lynch. On January 31 2012 18:47 zelblade wrote: Very logical, same conclusion that other townies came to, also posts his thoughts (relatively much more than the others posted).Chocolate - No idea due to inactivity, voted rather late for zarepath, could be mafia if SS/simbertoe doesnt flip red. I'm going to be taking a break so if another person could check out the black lines also it would be great. In any case, I am leaning more on the S & SS team. Voting S over SS since 2 votes already on S and no lynch is the worst case scenario for us (gives them a free night hit while we don't get any new info off flip). ##Vote Simberto | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + The thing I absolutely want to see is the four of you (Simberto, SacredSystem, Zelblade and Chocolate) interact with each other (Zelblade and SacredSystem have shown us enough of their relation, but I would like to see more of their relation to Simberto and Chocolate) This I feel will reveal much desired info, as well as put overwhelming pressure on mafia (if there are 2 in the group which I firmly believe) as they have to be extremely careful in their interaction with each other. So this is like a public debate forum I suppose. I give you questions (in case you don't know what to talk about) and you guys duke it out. The townies in the group should just speak as they normally do. They aren't fabricating lies and positions unlike mafia who have to keep checking their stances to prevent making slip ups. | ||
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On February 01 2012 08:34 Chocolate wrote: All right let's do this. Town Sloosh- Great analysis, very active, driving discussion DYH- Good analysis, active, claimed being hit w/ no counterclaim Bromancipate- Kind of on the edge, but has been posting a lot lately w/ good analysis and is driving discussion Cosmos- started zarepath lynch Adam- playing well, contributing Don't know... SS- very hostile attitude, confusing posts, omgus a lot BUT is active and seems to be trying to do analysis Zellblade- just generally shady, lurker like myself Mafia?? Simberto- Now that everyone has pointed out his inconsistencies he seems to me to be a mafia, or at least the best current candidate for a lynch. There are nine players in the game. He puts five as town, two as null & one as mafia for a total of eight reads (plus himself makes nine). Remember that there are two mafia left (as if town would forget!) and look at his last line. He only considers Simberto as mafia after night 2 ends and people start openly suspecting Simberto. It is a very passive stance. Notice how he says it. He "seems". Then notice how he says that this is the best current candidate. Ok. So logically he is saying that Simberto, of whom he does not strongly believe is the mafia, is the best candidate in his mind. So I ask you guys, what is he thinking going into night 2 without any mafia reads??? With this I am leaning much to a Simberto/Chocolate team that is bussing each other so that the other will stand a better chance. With Simberto on the chopping block he drops his thoughts on zelblade and points out Chocolate. This does mean that Sacred is town. Perhaps he is town suffering from serious tunnel vision. I don't like this but at least he has some thought (doesn't matter how well/poorly reasoned it may be). Chocolate, with the 0 reads night 2 is a mafia. | ||
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On February 02 2012 07:28 Chocolate wrote: Like I said before, I think we probably have some dts who have found peoples' alignments and want to persuade others of their position without actually mentioning that they are dt. This doesn't really help because ultimately to guarantee a vote for today you will have to vote for either me or simberto. Of course this works if you want a nolynch Yes And also Simberto has actually been focusing on zellblade for even longer than I thought before http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=305805¤tpage=5#99 Ok. You are against a no lynch. Simberto is still the only "best lynch candidate" in your mind as you have said earlier. Prove your mettle. Vote Simberto. | ||
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On February 02 2012 07:43 SacredSystem wrote: Right now you are the only one who wants to lynch Zelblade, and your actions are anti-town as it pushes us to a no lynch.non voters and voters of choclate can you please switch your vote over to zelblade if the non voters switch over we can lynch zelblade, if the voters of chocolate switch over we would need 1 more of a lynch On January 28 2012 07:10 SacredSystem wrote: Either Chocolate or Simberto will be lynched today. Vote one of them or be painted red forever.chocolate is mafia simberto is town | ||
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On February 02 2012 08:47 SacredSystem wrote: so zelblade clearly stood up in defense of zarepath and attacked me he was never suspicious of zarepath at all, then once zarepath fliped red he acted like he was actually a part of lynching zarepath also im not sold on chocolate or simberto, if anyone wants to convince me, feel free to do so, but even if they are mafia i still view zelblade as being a safer lynch as he has he has yet to do anything that would convince me hes town On January 28 2012 07:10 SacredSystem wrote: chocolate is mafia simberto is town No one should have to convince you. You are either lying or have SERIOUS TUNNEL VISION. It is 4 to lynch ONLY if no one else votes (and 3 modkills happen). That is not likely. | ||
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(2 modkills) 1 more vote pushes it up to 5 for lynch. | ||
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Sole reason being that this Saturday I will be out and without internet access for the whole day. (48 hr day allows me to stay the first half while 24 doesn't). Unless I can somehow be exempt from post/vote requirement for 1 day, but that doesn't seem fair. | ||
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I am back on track to lynching Zelblade. 1) Parts of SacredSystem's analysis are actually quite valid if you read them without labeling him as scum in your mind. On February 02 2012 22:28 SacredSystem wrote: Important He only votes for zarepath when slo0sh asks him to do so, throughout his posting history he does not show any suspicion or analysis of zarepath. However once the vote shows that zarepath was mafia, he states + Show Spoiler + On January 30 2012 13:12 zelblade wrote: Nice lynch :D Since it seems that most of us were on zarepath, I guess that the mafia probably have little to no thread presence. Suggest we take a hard look at the lurkers for the next lynch. As stated earlier I need to go now and will be away from the thread for quite a while. he says that despite never being on to zarepath This is true. Only after the whole thing (Zarepath lynch and its certainty) fleshes out does Zelblade add this little post On January 29 2012 12:47 zelblade wrote: As for the lynch today, I have read through the cases on zarepath and i certainly see how he could be the mafia godfather, and DoYouHas makes some good points on how he jumps onto the SS bandwagon which I (whum he suspects to be mafia) am pushing. Honestly I will still prefer to lynch SacredSystem due to how much he is dodging questions. Either way, I wouldnt mind lynching either as I believe both could be mafia. On January 29 2012 17:28 zelblade wrote: Since it seems like Sacred isnt going to get lynched today I will change my vote for now i guess. ##Unvote: SacredSystem ##Vote: Zarepath Weak and non-commital. 2) Just because the Simberto mislynch is fresh on your minds, don't let it distract you from what was there before. Remember the case against Zelblade 3) Read upon his day 3 posts in his filter. Still no substance. 4) On February 02 2012 22:28 zelblade wrote: Will be busy for the rest of the night and as such wont be able to post till day starts tomorrow. Suspicious of both SS and chocolate at this point. Will elaborate on my suspisions tomorrow since I need to go off now, and will not be on a computer for a while. Assumes he will live this night. This isn't as hard of a tell but definitely isn't null. Just points out his suspicions, and says he will go to sleep. Non-commital. 5) Remember Zelblade's apologetic mild mannered nature? How it's his "first game"? + Show Spoiler + On February 01 2012 16:31 zelblade wrote: My analysis wasnt "emotional". The only capitalized bold letters are a "you", I dont see any double question marks, I dont see you pointing out anything in my analysis that "isnt logical", the "omgggg how could you think that defense" is referring to your OMGUS (in which you attack him because he feels that you are suspisious and for no other reason whatsover) of chocolate. Stop fabricating bullshit that isnt true. When the hell have I "furiously defended" him? I had made it clear after the case DYH posted that he seemed scummy and that I was suspisious of him, but moreso on you. Please point out an instance in which I defend him. Cant understand "acted like you were all on board on it". I did say that I prefer lynching you over zarepath because I had a stronger scum read on you, and this was before the DYH case. I am not really sure about that last sentence of yours, but i shall assume (correct me if I am wrong), that you are talking about my "if zarepath = red SS prolly = green" part, I did think so at that point in time but I still am getting a scum feel off you, and as DYH has said; I now dont believe that the zarepath flip clears you at all. As stated, I wasnt defending him. I am not scared, and I didnt "give myself away" with my attacks on you and non-exsistent defense of my so-called buddy. Dont worry, you will be lynched next after simberto flips red. And even if you are somehow town (highly highly doubt so), no scum in their right mind would shoot you, since you are doing an excellent job pushing their agenda for them. Total attitude change. You might say that it is due to constant pressure by SacredSystem. However, consider this: if you were being pressured (as town by someone you think is mafia), why would you lash out like so? Why would you mock someone's arguments as he does in the last line? If you know they got nothing on you and they are making stuff up, it won't faze you. It fazed him. This is my stance, I make it clear. I'ma get you: Zelblade | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On February 03 2012 07:04 Adam4167 wrote: A typical response and WIFOM. I say you were looking to rattle the DT into making himself more obvious, so you had confirmation of your shot. I ask you again, what possible motive could a townie have for even bringing it up? How does SS flipping red implicate me as mafia? Sloosh, what has changed your mind about chocolate between this post and this post? The analysis on Chocolate shows exactly why he is mafia. He has not been doing any work to further this town and he gives one line explanations as to why people are mafia and this is only after he is prodded. Consider the pool of SacredSystem, Zelblade, CosmosXAM and Chocolate. As individuals I would be ok with lynching them all, as I don't think any one of them have done anything particularly pro-town / contributed anything substantial. (sure their interactions with those now dead may indicate certain alignments, but they themselves haven't done anything pro-town) There are two mafia left, which is to say that out of these four at least 2 MUST be Town. MUST be. So you need to be a lookout for 2 mafia and see their interactions with each other and the town, as looking at individuals does not work in this situation. I did not like Chocolate (moreso than the others) on the basis of a possible Chocolate Simberto pair. Simberto has flipped town, and thus the pair cannot exist. I suspect a different pair, one that includes Zelblade. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
So I just want to point to things I've looked at, and maybe you'll come to same conclusions. - First, Simberto is town. I think it was a genuine mislynch. So what do mafia with a mislynch led by townies? They stay back, they don't want their hands dirty. Read day 3 again and see who is not really committed in finding out Simberto's alignment. - Second, read Simberto's posts. He is town, reading them now helps you get a clearer view on things, rather than before when you may have suspected him mafia. - Third, consider the possible mafia pairs. Who is helping who and for what reasons? Forget bussing. I repeat, forget bussing. We can worry about it if we lynch a mafia. Right now worrying about bussing is detrimental to objective town thinking. The pair I'm thinking are not bussing at all. Hopefully you get to see what I see. In any case I'll post closer to deadline my full thoughts. In the meantime I'm gonna vote for Zelblade. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
post more of what I suspect is the mafia pair, not post more thoughts and discussion. Want to re - emphasize: (four refers to SacredSystem, Zelblade, CosmosXAM and Chocolate) On February 03 2012 07:47 slOosh wrote: There are two mafia left, which is to say that out of these four at least 2 MUST be Town. MUST be. So you need to be a lookout for 2 mafia and see their interactions with each other and the town, as looking at individuals does not work in this situation. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On February 03 2012 08:08 Bromancipate wrote: Bad luck Sim but you should have done more. Chat to you after the game  We are close to end game guys and we need to pick up our game. We are nearing LYLO and it is possible that one more mis-lynch loses us the game, so think long and hard about who should die tomorrow. Jitsu and I are still convinced that SacredSystem is the mafia hiding in plain sight. Given both Adam and sl0osh are town in our minds that leaves one in Zelblade, Cosmos and Chocolate. All three are scummy as hell but zelblade looks the most "towny" to me. That leaves a choice between Cosmos and Chocolate. Chocolate is getting the heat at the moment which I expect to continue. I don't want us tunneling another townie letting scum hide. So Cosmos will be my target analysis. We can then compare cases. Right now it seems to me if we lynch either zelblade, cosmos or chocolate tomorrow we are taking a risk that does not need to be taken. SacredSystem is the most obvious mafia to me and has been all game. If you don't agree, convince me otherwise. Could you tell us how you two resolved the issue of Zelblade? I know that for Jitsu, Zelblade was his most prominent suspect. I would like to what happened. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
I think Bromanicpate is mafia along with Zelblade. I didn't want to straight up do this since I wanted others to think about this before I posted anything, as I do not have too much confidence in my ability to articulate and did not want to give you the chance to rip apart my analysis based on my poor articulation rather than reasoning. Townspeople, please focus on my reasoning. Again I want to re-emphasize, mafia pairs. Bromancipate has been playing a game of subtle persuasion, misdirecting the town as he has become more active. The reason why this is so strong is that it seems pro-town lynching suspicious people, but as I have said three times now, we cannot lynch one by one. On February 03 2012 07:47 slOosh wrote: There are two mafia left, which is to say that out of these four at least 2 MUST be Town. MUST be. So you need to be a lookout for 2 mafia and see their interactions with each other and the town, as looking at individuals does not work in this situation. First is his redirection off Zelblade. We as a town were set against Zelblade. He slowly comes in, saying that in posts earlier that he does not think zelblade is mafia. Then he takes attention off zelblade and puts it onto SacredSystem. This is effective since SacredSystem seems so mafia. However, notice SacredSystem's continous push to lynch Zelblade. I think this is not work of mafia, nor ingnorant townie. I think it is work of Detective, trying desperately hard to convince the town without straight up roleclaiming as that would not work. Why would he keep persisting, trying to bring up the same points over and over? This is beyond tunneling or bussing. ___________________________________________________ On February 03 2012 08:08 Bromancipate wrote: Jitsu and I are still convinced that SacredSystem is the mafia hiding in plain sight. Given both Adam and sl0osh are town in our minds that leaves one in Zelblade, Cosmos and Chocolate. All three are scummy as hell but zelblade looks the most "towny" to me. That leaves a choice between Cosmos and Chocolate. Chocolate is getting the heat at the moment which I expect to continue. I don't want us tunneling another townie letting scum hide. So Cosmos will be my target analysis. We can then compare cases. Right now it seems to me if we lynch either zelblade, cosmos or chocolate tomorrow we are taking a risk that does not need to be taken. SacredSystem is the most obvious mafia to me and has been all game. - Notice that DoYouHas is missing. Again. - Zelblade the one he says again and again is townie newb is labeled "scummy as hell". - More importantly, I posted three times that we need to consider pairs. Yet he is still going after one at a time, and tries to get town to do it as well. ___________________________________________________ I want us to take a step back and think big picture. Bromancipate lurks (or is genuinly busy) day 1. He jumps on Zarepath lynch (7th vote when he realizes he going to get lynched). He defends Zelblade (guy we all thought was mafia and were going to lynch) whilst attacking SacredSystem, which works well since SacredSystem is so suspicious. Out of nowhere has this guy come and implanted into our thinking that he is townie without any actual contribution (just an increase in activity). He tries to keep our attention on the pool of suspicious players when I clearly state multiple times that that kind of method won't work. What is most frustrating is is how he is a hydra, with two heads that can think opposing thoughts, capable of acting on either head's thoughts without being held accountable to the other. Notice how many times they conflict and conveniently resolve, aligning with the most "pro-town" option possible. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On February 03 2012 09:53 Bromancipate wrote: Well thanks for coming out saying it. I am writing up my defense now but just quickly why does a supposed SS DT finding zelblade as scum make me scum just because I defended him. My initial response to this was conformation bias all the way. You are convinced that zelblade is scum and so my defense of him must be a scum protecting his buddy. Well it is not. I don't want us to lynch a townie, so if I believe someone is town I will defend them. Just because you come to a different conclusion does not mean that I am scum. My belief that zelblade is mafia is only a support, NOT a foundation to my case against you. I want to make that clear right now. I assume you read my post and still believe that zelblade is town (despite calling him "scummy as hell"). As I have said before, a case can be made against any of the four, but it stands to reason that at least two of them MUST be town. And so if you still so strongly believe that zelblade is town, I wish for your thoughts on my post and how either Chocolate or CosmosXAM is much more likely to be mafia. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
night ends: 5 town 2 mafia mislynch : 4 town 2 mafia night: 3 town 2 mafia With only 1 mislynch we approach lylo, and as I have said, there are 4 candidates whom people would lynch as individuals but we can't do this. At least 2 MUST be town. Please don't forget this point I think this is so crucial. Also I find the twice now lack of acknowledgement of DoYouHas as town very disconcerting. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On February 03 2012 11:15 Bromancipate wrote: This is precisely the thought process I don't want town to get. I have made it very clear. 4 suspects. 2 MUST BE TOWN. You have to accept that at least two of them are town, DESPITE their scumminess as you call it. It is very logical to consider as mafia as pairs as to help make better reads.Well I don't agree with your logic here. People play this game as individuals, sure mafia is a team but they still have to post on single accounts. We can only lynch one person at a time so making a decision about a pair is useless. To me mafia are the ones driving an agenda that is not beneficial to town. If someone is suspicious it is normally because they are driving an agenda that does this. That is why I hunt scum. I don't really care who is town because I don't have to choose to lynch a townie. I need to be sure that person is scum. Besides focusing on pairs allows you to be swayed by WIFOM. Take this circumstance right now. It is quite possible that Zelblade is scum and I am town. I know I am town so for me it comes down to my belief about zelblade. If I think he is town I will defend him. But for you, you see it that we are somehow connected simply because I am defending him. That makes no sense. This focus on pairs makes you believe that we are intrinsically linked when in fact we are not. It does make sense to see an interaction between two players and note the relationship between them. I have stated before that my read on Bromancipate is not solely founded upon my read on Zelblade. That is not what I said.Hence why I disregarded it as an idea. So to you because Zelblade looks scummy I must be mafia targeting a town. Again, no. Bromancipate is painting an incorrect picture of my argument.So that is why you think Zelblade is scum. Because SS refuses to budge from Zelblade. You could use the same logic for my defense of zelblade. I am not claiming I am simply pointing out that unless SS straight up claims DT with a mafia check you are still making assumptions based on WIFOM. No, this is why I believe zelblade is mafia. I am not basing it off WIFOM, I have a very clear analytical basis of believing Zelblade is mafia. I don't know why DYH keeps disappearing from my lists. I just don't notice his posting. If that is what you think makes me mafia then you are going to have to try harder. You still haven't explained how this is driving a mafia agenda. I have not pushed for his lynch or even labelled him scummy. I simply missed him. This is anti-town as it plants seeds of doubt concerning one of the most town people here. I believe Simberto was a genuine mislynch. No one has counterclaimed DYH's hit. He pushed for Zarepath lynch, even when I backed off. Distrust is anti-town. Guys, please notice how again this is subtle influence over town. Zelblade is scummy as hell, he just looks less scummy than the rest of them. I can like your arguments and agree that he looks like a mafia without believing his is mafia. Look at it differently, I can say who I think is town and then label the rest scummy. Well I don't want to be labellign scum as town so I keep that list short and label the ones that look sort of townie, as scummy. Again, this doesn't explain where the motivation is. You haven't explained how my actions are actively leading to a town loss. The only thing you have said is that I took attention away from Zelblade and pushed it onto SS. Well I stand by that, I think SS is much more likely to flip red than Zelblade. If I believe this, why wouldn't I defend Zelblade? Again, Bromancipate sidesteps my reasoning. Focusing on the 4 suspects leads to town loss as we only have room to lynch two of them and two of them are TOWN. And I never said actively. I said clearly that he is subtly trying to distract & misdirect us. The last line is illogical. If you think someone is much more likely to flip red, you don't defend the other suspect, but you push forward the first suspect. Actually I would argue that trying to move a lynch off someone who I think is town to someone who is mafia is contributing, but hey don't let that cloud your judgement. Well I don't agree with your logic on that so why should I follow it. Just because people (including myself) have labelled you town does not mean that I have to follow your instructions. It's ok to disagree with my logic, but it is not town to simply ignore and brush it aside. It is more helpful to town to reason with me why you think something illogical, that both I and other townspeople would not fall into a logical mistake. He paints me in a bad light again by skewing reality. I never commanded anyone and have welcomed correction multiple times. Lastly he does not treat my argument seriously. He makes light of it. Throughout his response he sidesteps, he sets up scarecrows, he paints me in bad light. Notice how he ends his defense. Finally, how does pushing a pro-town option make me scum? Should I be pushing a mafia agenda instead? I argued that it is not pro-town. The last two lines are condescending. Definitely not how town treat other town.Wait, maybe I should push my own ideas. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On February 03 2012 11:26 Bromancipate wrote: I agree that we have to be careful. I don't agree that the fact we have two town in there is of upmost importance. I could justify all their actions from a town point of view. That is why it is better to focus on the motivations for people's posts. There will always be circumstances where town targets town, if you use that as evidence for one being scum then mafia can sit back and laugh. Why link them at all? Much better to ascertain the reason they went after the townie. That will tell you more. Finally, I addressed your concern about DYH being missing from my town list. If this is a problem for you I will calm your mind. DoYouHas is town. I never did that. You will notice my case on Zelblade has nothing to do on his attack on FakePromise, nor his defense of Zarepath, nor any interaction with Simberto. I also never said we should link them all. I do not appreciate you twisting up what I said. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
##Vote Zelblade. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
Big thank you to dreamflower, Qatol, making this happen and Incognito for great coaching. First mafia game and I roll medic :p Lol 1st day save was semi-fluke. I couldn't save myself so I picked the next towniest guy I saw. 2nd day, torn between MG and DYH. I knew a vigi shot would go through regardless so I was biased in saving DYH. 3rd day was Adam as I toyed with the idea that Bromancipate would cast doubt on DoYouHas (with fail simberto lynch). Thank you all for a great game  | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
And at least two must be town, so there will undoubtably be some town players who are questionable. So I didn't like the idea of picking off people one by one, as it would be too easy for us to be swayed onto the town guys. I think I may have made that up to have people start looking at you more as you were my prime suspect along with zelblade. Honestly thought Sacred was newbie detective trying to scrounge up info to lynch Zelblade ><; | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On February 03 2012 14:42 Probulous wrote: That is what I thought but I stand by my reasoning that eventually you have to choose someone. You can narrow the pool as much as you want but ultimately it will be only one. There were others that were questionable. I could have pushed a case (bad ones) on pretty much everybody. When I'm town I work in a similar way. Can you give me an example of where this worked perfectly? Cause you still had me and zelblade linked when we weren't. I would have defended him if I was in the same position as town. I think it is because you can push a case on pretty much all of them that I was so wary. I have no idea of an example as this is my first and only forum mafia game, and I think I got the idea as soon as Adam posted that paint picture. Wrong read on Zelblade and by chance I guess I suspected you hard. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On February 04 2012 06:07 Chocolate wrote: Wow guys you played really well. Sloosh definitely mvp, I wish we had gone after you night 1 but we thought you would be healed. I definitely sucked, I was afraid to post analysis because I was certain I would make a scumslip and I didn't know exactly what to look for. Ahaha, I looked at both mafia and obs QTs and it seems that most of my reads were lucky / illogical / confirmation bias (Zarepath, zelblade, Simberto). I was worried that I might be killed, and since I couldn't heal myself, I tried to act as fearless as possible, hoping to give off a veteran vibe and not get shot. I guess it worked out in a different way than I intended .I think you could have posted stuff on zelblade or cosmos or simberto or anyone. For instance, I posted a lot of stuff (most of it would turn out wrong) but it is more suspicious to not even try to contribute, which is why I think Adam read you as mafia. That's my guess anyways. If SacredSystem stopped tunneling Zelblade (leading me to think he was detective and kicking my confirmation bias into overdrive) I would have gone for you with this reasoning. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
People in Obs QT said my case against Zarepath was weak / confirmation bias, and I think besides MidnightGladius' vig shot and Adams hunches on Chocolate, as a town we didn't ever rally around a good analysis case. Could you help point out posts which tipped off people as mafia? Or is this more an overall feel in which each post adds to the case rather than one solid post upon which you can lynch mafia? Also, how can you differentiate between timidity due to being new to the game and timidity due to being mafia? | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
Gah, and I just found out it is a PM game! It seems like too much for me ><; Hoping that GMarshal will host another Newbie game after his mini. I am very excited to play and just waiting for appropriate game right now. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
I've actually been thinking about day 1s in general, and wondered how to get talking started (assuming normal game without mayor elections). For this game it was FakePromise's innocent but misunderstood/exaggerated 30% statement but how would you do that in other games? | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
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slOosh
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On February 10 2012 14:17 Probulous wrote: The problem wasn't the topic it was the "random lynching". He was advocating random lynches using a non-random method. In essence his plan was a cover for getting someone lynched that he had chosen. The fact that this was hardly mentioned really struck me when catching up on the thread. Here is the logic
Most people had issues with the odds and the lack of information that comes from random lynching but supporting those isn't exactly scummy. It is is just a difference of opinion and probably bad town play. The fact that he suggested "reverse alphabetical" means the process is not random and he was trying to get someone lynched. Then when he flipped people should have realised that he was zarepath's day 1 target (in his first post no less) and so was highly unlikely to be mafia. I didn't push this because I actually wanted zelblade lynched Ohhhh ... I thought it was some intricate bussing that wouldn't go through but set up a good failsafe dynamic of giving the surviving mafias town cred ... Would it be good for me to apply Occam's razor more often? | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On February 10 2012 14:45 Adam4167 wrote: The sooner you get to Lylo the better. Its such a dangerous position, because if even ONE townie vote is in the wrong place, boom, game over. Every single townie needs to be on the same page heading into Lylo, otherwise mafia take it. Thus, getting there as fast as possible will give the town as little to work with as possible. This is why mafia almost never advocate a no-lynch, and if they are, its because one of their own is leading the vote count. Would it have been a good idea to no lynch D1 in this game? Or any game? | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On February 10 2012 15:00 Adam4167 wrote: Day 1 is almost universally a mislynch. That means you can be sure that 50-75% of the scum team are on the vote. I am perfectly fine with trading that townie (who obviously did something... not smart) to heavily narrow down the scum suspects. How do you look at voting lists? Do you try to match up who shows up on mislynches vs mafia lynches, or is it just a jumping point to have some suspects to analyze? | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On February 10 2012 15:10 DoYouHas wrote: For example, if you had stepped up to bat for Simberto, and others had rallied, there was a very good chance I would have backed off. I was already worried when I couldn't pick apart his defense as readily as I wanted. At that point I was too far in to pull myself out, but I could have been convinced. I think that there is why he didn't do it. I was confirmation biased in following you since I knew you were town, SS and zelblade were tunneling each other which only leaves Cosmos who didn't have much presence. The best way to quell the suspicion was to let him flip town, allowing us to look at other suspects instead of being distracted and distrustful. I know approaching the night I just wanted him to get lynched as I was so curious to know, regardless of if he was town or not because by then the thread was a huge convoluted mess and I wanted the easy way out (kill the source). | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On February 10 2012 15:53 Adam4167 wrote: Yeah, I was trying to push chocolate, but everyone seemed pretty dead-set on simberto. I thought for sure chocolate was a deadman after sloosh posted that great analysis and then BAM, his vote goes on simberto. O_o doesn't do justice to the look I had on my face at that point. So is it always better to lynch the strongest read regardless of the suspect's position / influence on town? I was set on a Simberto/Chocolate team read, and wanted to lynch Simberto first to clear the giant mess, and that he is the more influential suspect, then move on to lynch Chocolate next day (until I got sidetracked onto Zelblade again  ).Is it better to lynch sure mafia first always? (P.s. I am learning a lot through this discussion thank you guys for insights / inputs ) | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
Town's goal is to flush out and lynch the mafia. Mafia's goal is to prevent them from doing this while using night kills to catch up in number. Expanding upon that, flushing out happens with activity and meaningful direction, and so mafia want inactivity, confusion or aimlessness. As mafia, do you just want to look like town? Is it good to be pro-town in certain areas/times for the town cred? I'm thinking that good analysts can tell if you are trying to look town vs acting town, and so it becomes necessary at points to actually contribute, but as mafia you don't want to give anything that really helps town. It seems to me the only option left is to contribute but make sure it is in the wrong direction. For example in this game that would be Bromancipate focusing on SacredSystem, which was the wrong direction, but he definitely looked like he was contributing. He also defended zelblade which was pro-town, but only for the purpose of lynching SacredSystem (I think that is what he said during the game? I'm not sure if he was lying or not). Say that his defense worked and quelled all suspicion on zelblade. Would that be an example of being too pro-town leading to downfall of mafia? | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On February 11 2012 10:26 jaj22 wrote: The point is that the psychology only matters because the scum know that they're scum and act like it. If they had no idea, and were happily lynching their own team in the belief that they were themselves town, they'd have that 89% win rate. But I suppose the existence (or even possibility) of cops / investigative roles prevent this kind of stuff? Hypothetically assume that there is a game setup where each mafia does not know who his teammates are (kinda like Sleeper Cell Mafia). Then remove the possibility of shooting a mafia (doesn't matter how, just assume it defaults to random townie in worst case). Do you think that 89% would still appear (assuming no power roles) ? It's the hidden information of knowing who your teammates are that makes people look mafia no? | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
What differentiates it from a normal agenda (or a newbie town agenda)? | ||
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