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On January 31 2012 06:34 Palmar wrote:
♥
Layabout should probably be next, seeing he has the most voting power of the scum.
On January 31 2012 21:09 Palmar wrote:
yeah, what's better? living scum with 4 votes or dead scum with 4 votes?
On February 01 2012 04:30 Palmar wrote:
oh right, you corrected that.
anyway, he's town for now. LSB is dying tomorrow.
What's with the sudden change? I don't really see an explanation between the change in ideas. Can you expand on your reasons for thinking LSB is scum aside from the layabout vote giving event?
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On February 01 2012 04:41 Palmar wrote:
yes I can, but I don't intend to.
Will you do it after night has ended? Or should we just assume it's ok to just listen and follow you now for the rest of the game?
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I think you need a badass picture first for that to happen though. But because you don't, I will have to see you in thread tomorrow then to continues our discussion on who to lynch.
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On February 01 2012 05:09 risk.nuke wrote:
LSB was palmars target when VE played his crazy move which to me seems to have been made out of desperation. That makes LSB look really bad.
On other accounts I view both LSB and Layabout as just about the same.
*Alot of act, little under the hood.
*Questionable behavior.
But palmar's only real argument against LSB is that he gave his vote to layabout. When compared to what layabout has done and posted, I don't think it's the same condemning thing at all.
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LSB was palmars target when VE played his crazy move which to me seems to have been made out of desperation. That makes LSB look really bad.
Hmm, I'm going to relook at this event.
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Possibilites for VE's actions:
1. VE sacrificed himself for LSB.
2. VE is telling the truth and was hit by a vig. Note: vig has not come forward.
3. VE is telling the truth and was hit by mafia, thus Palmar is fake-claiming a hit in some elaborate mafia scheme to become virtually confirmed town.
4. VE just decided to start trolling out of nowhere.
I differ to occam's razor here. \
Right, I'm relooking at the event right now. Even if it is 1 though it doesn't really explain the point of the sacrifice. Why would VE sacrifice himself for LSB (assuming they're teammates)? Just because LSB is "off the table" for one day doesn't mean he'll be "off the table" the next day. The non-clarity of the situation isn't making me very confident. What do you think about LSB v layabout?
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Obviously layabout needs to tell us who he gave votes to but right now it looks like to me, that Palmer was probably right about his reads. Might have been a last ditch ploy (obviously there was some way/probably mafia action that allowed layabout to get to 10 votes, there's no way people actually gave him that many...right?) to get enough votes to gain majority outright and win the game. Thank god Node killed LSB or who knows what might have happened.
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##vote layabout
I probably won't be changing my vote. Unless layabout gives some amazing explanation.
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On February 01 2012 10:46 Paperscraps wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2012 10:44 Paperscraps wrote:
Yeah, it looks like the votes given to Palmar were siphoned to layabout.
Now I see why layabout was so adamant that we wasn't going to give votes away, to justify having soo many today. Anyways layabout needs to die.
##Vote layabout My only reservation is that the mafia knows we will see right through this power play. WIFOM Is mafia setting up layabout or is layabout in on it?
I think that they were expecting this to be THE game ending power play though.
I mean...given layabout's play through the game, I'm 90% certain he's mafia.
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Notice this he CLAIMED that he got votes from layabout. Before everyone had even claimed only 7 people had declared where there votes went.
When did I claim this? I never claimed this.
Also, why would it make sense for someone that I was pushing to be lynched, to give me 4 votes, if both of us were mafia?? That makes NO SENSE. Come on guys...
Chaoser also didnt know about the VE lynch till it already happened he could not really have a say in it. (although maybe he would of tried to defend his mafia buddy)
If people hadn't ended the day so early before I got back from class I could have said something and had my post actually matter.
Seems LSB had a pretty important PR.
Ok I was wrong about LSB, but I called out VE and Layabout, early in the game in day one.
It wasn't even like I defended LSB that much. Look at my posts from my big one on Night 2 up till today about him. You can see a gradual natural change from townie (due to his day 1 play) to neutral. The VE random shenengians made no sense when combined with the LSB situation which threw me off as well.
posting from iphone in hospital shift
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Chaoser also didnt know about the VE lynch till it already happened he could not really have a say in it. (although maybe he would of tried to defend his mafia buddy)
If people hadn't ended the day so early before I got back from class I could have said something and had my post actually matter.
I said on my first big post that I was ok with either a lynch of VE or Dirzok the next day. I pointed it out before anyone (aside from palmar, pointed it out). That's just misrepresentation of facts.
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But palmar's only real argument against LSB is that he gave his vote to layabout. When compared to what layabout has done and posted, I don't think it's the same condemning thing at all.
Seems LSB had a pretty important PR.
So you're saying LSB, layabout, and me are all mafia. VE too. I was ok with bussing VE day 1. And then I defended LSB over layabout, bussing layabout, when they were both mafia? How does that make sense?
LSB of the Scum died during the night.
He looks like he was regular mafia too so it wasn't even like I was saving someone "important". Not to mention that at that point layabout had more votes so if I was mafia I would try to save layabout over LSB. Also if I was mafia
sorry for short posts, iphone is hard to quote
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EDIT: "Also if I was mafia": what would the point be of 1) bussing layabout then 2) asking layabout to give me votes and then 3) making him siphon votes off palmar.
why not just tell him to give only one vote away and siphon. Why 4 like people are theorizing?
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1) Why did he not send his votes to palmar - which meant himself?
2) Why did he not send to LSB?
3) Why did layabout not keep as many votes for himself as possible?
1) If Layabout was shot during night the votes would have probably ended at Palmar. Not a good situation for scum.
2) The pressure was on LSB and Layabout. If layabout had send votes to LSB it would just further incriminate the 2 as scumbuddies. Would not have been a problem had mafia gained majority but if they didn't the votes would be better on the last remaining scum.
3) Same as 1 and 2. If layabout was shot the votes would have been lost. It was the best of 2 worlds for scum to send the votes to chaoser. If they had gained majority it didn't matter where the votes where. If they didn't the remaining votes would be on the last scum who we hadn't caught on to yet (chaoser).
So here's where you're wrong
1) False conclusion, Palmar was being shot by mafia. Even if layabout thought he was going to be shot, this point would never have been something for him to fear since, as mafia, he would already know that Palmar was going to die.
2) Two problems with this one. First, let's look at what you ultimately conclude. Your final conclusion from this situation should be "The person who is sent votes from layabout, who siphoned votes, will be incriminated". You try to frame it as "LSB getting votes from layabout would incriminate him more" but because layabout was going to siphon votes off Palmar (as is theorized), ANYONE he sent votes to would be incriminated, not just LSB. Secondly, this idea then discredits your last point of "if the mafia didn't gain majority, it would be better on the last remaining scum.". This point also doesn't make sense if you think I'm the last remaining scum.
a) I would be put under suspicion when I previously wasn't. If we were both scum, why would he do something that essentially "outted" me thus losing the game for the mafia team? It would be more logical to place it on LSB, who was already under suspicion.
b) If layabout was indeed scared that he might get shot during the night as you purposed during the night, why would any other mafia give votes to layabout/palmar then? It would make more sense, if LSB and I were mafia, to give vots to each other, not layabout. Just like how you're saying layabout giving votes to palmar is "not a good situation for scum" since layabout might have had the "fear of death", the logic should then carry over to ANY mafia member giving to palmar/layabout given your first conclusion. Why did you only think about "fear of death" to explain your first conclusion but leave it out here?
3) Once again you bring up this idea that layabout was scared of getting shot and losing votes. This again contradicts your idea that if this really was the case, that LSB and I (if I was mafia) would, as part of the plan, give palamr/layabout our votes.
You are clearly cherrypicking logical points and trying to paint something that fits your narrative. However, your narrative sucks cause of all the logical holes in it. I've been the most outspoken about you as scum and now it seems I finally understand the final gambit. Layabout giving votes to me was an act of incrimination. The siphon was a way of getting rid of votes. The plan this whole time was to get rid of votes. The less votes there are, the easier to gain majority. This fits with the "fear of death" that you so nicely pointed out idea.
Layabout was fearing death. He knew that him and LSB would probably either get shot (if there was vigis) or get lynched the next day. Looking back on it, I doubt he actually thought he could get majority. So the idea was to siphon votes, get shot. Also, place votes on me, the one who has been most outspoken of dirkzor, "incriminating me", and then get ME lynched. This gets rid of not only however many votes he would be stealing but also get rid of however votes I would end up having. More importantly though it would get rid of the person most vocal about dirkzor.
As can be seen in dirkzor's shitty holey post against me, he has an agenda, and will do whatever it takes, to get me lynched. even use bad logic.
If you look through my filter, you'll see that given what we know, I'd be the LEAST likely to be mafia. I pointed out problems with Dirkzor, VE, and layabout in my day one post. I said I'd be ok with and would have pushed a VE lynch for Day 2. I was ok with and would have pushed a layabout lynch for Day 3. I have also been as thoughtful in my posts as possible. I've taken stances and been very detailed about my thoughts. Dirkzor on the other hand, made a shitty case against prplhz, and aside from one post about LSB, has done absolutely nothing for town.
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He gradually distanced himself from layabout the more lay was painted red by town.
Once again misinformation. I already pointed out my suspicions against layabout on day 1. Are you saying that I bussed pretty much every single on of my teammates?
Things talking in favor of Chaoser:
He have distanced himself from Layabout throughout the game.
Things talking againts chaoser:
He gradually distanced himself from layabout the more lay was painted red by town.
Either you can frame it as "Chaoser was suspicious of layabout since day 1" for a positive or "He has been distancing himself from layabout since the start of the game". You can't use the same point as both a townie thing AND a scummy thing. That makes no sense.
Also, the idea that "VE was already palmars target from day 1." as a negative for me is ridiculous. From what we know, mafia was going to kill Palmar Night 1. Had palmar actually died that night, his case against VE would have probably died as well (In fact, Palmar's target at the start of Day 2 wasn't even VE, it was LSB). So why would I feel the need to bus a teammate if I was mafia if the person who was targetting him was going to die, and by his own submission "Due to him being scum, and no one believing me VE is scum.", no one else believed VE was scum?
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EDIT: I want to make clear the the "fear" in point one against dirkzor is "fear that layabout wil die and palmar will get the votes instead" That is not a fear that layabout should have felt
The "fear of death" I talk about is indeed just that, a fear of dying.
I'll see you guys today, work/classes calls!
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Your first post where you said you thought VE was scum was AFTER night 1. So you knew that palmar had survived when you bussed VE. In the same post you said small things about layabout (wall of texting). You never really called him scummy until way later when palmar had painted him bright red. Thats why i think you are gradually finding layabout more and more scum in the same pace as town finds him more and more scum.
On January 30 2012 11:00 chaoser wrote:
Ok so I'm finally caught up (on start of Night 1) and my thoughts:
I replaced into the game. You can take my statement for what it's worth but I did only catch up to the start of night 1/end of day 2.
As can be seen in my next post, I only knew palmar survived after my first post.
On January 30 2012 11:54 chaoser wrote:
Back from running. The shot on palmar pretty much confirms him for me.i gave my vote to him but it didnt go through
Unless you're saying I set up a bus on a teammate, misrepresented what I knew so that some time in the future I could go back and give an excuse that I actually didn't know palmar had died yet when I made my first post. That is so convoluted it doesn't make any sense.
I think I'm right... you can only prove me wrong by dying. And you will =)
Pretty sure a no flip isn't going to prove anything.
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On February 02 2012 04:30 Paperscraps wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2012 01:26 Jackal58 wrote:
Now that I am sober and on the better end of a hangover I think I am able to make a bit of sense out of this. The vote siphon role doesn't make sense unless it's a one off ability or we would have seen it already I think. What does make sense is scum has a bus driver. Good call Jackal. Mafia self-targets layabout, then scum driver switches Palmar and layabout. Thus medic is really on layabout, not Palmar. Even if medic did WIFOM, it wouldn't have mattered.
so I guess the question arises, is LSB or Layabout the bus driver? Or is the final mafia the busdriver?
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EPT
