EPTconvince somebody to swap to Erandorr?
stfu?
pick one
Purgatory Mafia - Page 3
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layabout
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convince somebody to swap to Erandorr? stfu? pick one | ||
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On January 08 2012 08:17 risk.nuke wrote: "Halfhearted defense", what the hell is there to defend myself against? meta, sure let me get my magical metashield of hopes and dreams. You decided to completely ignore the meta so you don't even get to call that bit halfhearted | ||
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fuck you guys | ||
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some concerns: -risk nuke had 9 votes and bluelighz game him a time limit before he would hammer, i don't see what risk.nuke has done to justify a switch. -I am okay with an Erandorr lynch but i am more confident in an risk.nuke lynch -TL Mafia XLVIIIn this game Erandorr was scum and he ran for major and was active towards the end of day1 so i am not % sure of meta, i will check more games though. -This situation is becoming chaotic and i don't think that that is beneficial to town. -Scum could very easily control who gets lynched | ||
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We have 30 minutes but as zbot takes pms every 5 mintues to be safe we need to give ourselves some room so we only really have 20-25 minutes i will only switch if it is absolutely necessary | ||
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On December 28 2011 15:42 ZBot wrote: Vote count for the Day 1 Lynch. With 18 alive, 10 votes are required to lynch. Current votes: Erandorr (7): risk.nuke (7): risk's list looks greener than Eran's | ||
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i am willing to switch to eran if necessary | ||
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(╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻) what now? how should we approach night-time discussion | ||
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Voting System: This game utilizes the Instant Majority Lynch system. If at any point during the day over half the players alive are voting to lynch a particular player, that player will be instantly lynched, and the night will immediately begin. seeing as its possible to lynch and have 8/18 players not vote it seems unlikely that you would be mod-killed | ||
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-people most responsible for the lynch Mr. Wiggles Layabout + Palmar Refallen RoL (if they did switch) -People who should have known better Yesterdays Lynch timeline Lynch deadline: January 08 10:00 According to the lynch and the posts in the thread this is what happened: On January 08 2012 09:45 ZBot wrote: End of Day 1 Lynched: Erandorr (10): Current votes: risk.nuke (4): -6 hours before the lynch risk nuke had 6 votes after i post my case http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13040868 -5 hours before the lynch Erandor had 4 votes as cwave votes him http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13042316 -4 hours 30 minutes left and Palmar (+Wiggles) pressure risk http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13042907 -HoD makes it 6-6 risk/eran with just over 3 hours to go to avoid a no lynch he votes for Eran which makes 6-6 whilst a risk vote would have made it 7-5 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13044935 -I then post my criticism of risk's "defence" with 3 hours left http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13045264 -Syllogism posts On January 08 2012 07:02 syllogism wrote: Day ends in 3 hours, but within an hour or two is fine. I'm fine with lynching either erandorr/risk -2 hours 30 minutes before the lynch risk had 9 votes and Eran has 4 votes Mr. Wiggles votes risk (swaps from Palmar), Grackaroni votes risk(swaps from Eran) and Palmar votes Eran (swaps from Wiggles) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=298603¤tpage=35 By this point risk had had 3 hours to satisfactorily defend himself but nobody at any point during the time states that they felt he had convinced them of his innocence, furthermore nothing new against Erandor is presented. -1 hour 45 to go Blazinghand says he will hammer risk in 1 hour 30 and that risk should put together his final contribution http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13047615 Read through what happens next very carefully, Syllogism posts this On January 08 2012 08:32 syllogism wrote: How many do we have around? I'm fine with switching to erandorr, I'm virtually certain that erandorr is scum and only very convinced that risk is then Blazinghand goes from On January 08 2012 08:18 Blazinghand wrote: risk.nuke if you're town, maybe you can pull some amazing argument out of your ass. If you don't think you can, please try to be helpful. Clock's ticking. to On January 08 2012 08:34 Blazinghand wrote: Man I'm amazed nobody understands that Erandorr is hustlin us as I have been saying Rather than following up on his "post before i hammer you" stance BHsuddenly wants to switch to Eran Syllogism had already stated that he was fine with lynching either but with 9 votes on risk and somebody promising to hammer he has a change of heart. -1 hour 25 minutes left Next, Grackaroni says he will switch On January 08 2012 08:35 Grackaroni wrote: I'm still here if we want to re-switch -At this point Syllogism has changed his vote (so its 8/6 risk/Erandorr) but he has not declared it in the thread. He tells poeple to only switch if they can stay until the deadline -He and BH then encourage people to switch, -risk votes for erandor BH reposts case on Eran On January 08 2012 08:36 Blazinghand wrote: risk.nuke you haven't voted? ._. cmon man. pm to: zbot subject: purgatory body: ##Vote Erandorr -1 hour 20 minutes left Mr. Wiggles wants to know why syllo will switch On January 08 2012 08:41 Mr. Wiggles wrote: I'm around. Why the change of heart? -1 hour 12mins left Grackaroni switches to Erandorr vote are now tied at 7/7 On January 08 2012 08:48 Grackaroni wrote: I'm going to go back to Erandorr then, there's no harm in doing it I'll be here if we can't secure enough votes. -1 hour 10 before the lynch 98% sure BH is being sarcastic and still thinks risk is scum On January 08 2012 08:47 Blazinghand wrote: OH WOW GREAT ARGUMENT YOU CONVINCE ME NOW On January 08 2012 08:49 Blazinghand wrote: You made an argument that consisted of "well you guys shouldn't lynch me because i'm town" Really? Why would you even say that. Grackaroni says he is going back to risk but he doesn't On January 08 2012 08:48 Grackaroni wrote: I'm going to go back to Erandorr then, there's no harm in doing it I'll be here if we can't secure enough votes. -1 hour left -Palmar will lynch either now? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13048314 -update from syllo On January 08 2012 08:58 syllogism wrote: No I still think risk is scum, but I'm pretty much certain that erandorr is. -55 minutes left RoL says he will read the thread and syllo tells us how to pm to vote for Erandorr http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13048410 -42 minutes left A wild Refallen appears! On January 08 2012 09:17 Refallen wrote: Just woke up. Are we switching to erandorr? Why not risk? And how long do we have? wants to lynch risk but willing to vote either -33 minutes left On January 08 2012 09:27 Mr. Wiggles wrote: If we're going to lynch Erandorr, you still need two more people besides me. Who are they? I don't want a no-lynch. with Wiggles prepared to switch it is now possible to lynch Erandorr Vote tally Risk nuke: Refallen, Dirkzor, Zephirdd, layabout, Erandorr, Mr. Wiggles, Palmar, Erandor: Cwave, HarbingerOfDoom, syllogism, risk.nuke, Grackaroni, Tyrran, Blazinghand -Refallen Wiggle and palmar have all stated their willingness to vote for either and BH and syllogism have been pressuring people to vote Eran, If you want to avoid a no-lunch, who does it seem is most likely to be lynched? My excuse for my actions to come: I felt by this point it would be Erandorr who would be lynched, i had opposed the vote switch but as stated earlier i stated that i was fine with an Erandorr lynch, and a no-lynch would have been really bad. Syllo did say that they could switch back so i -30 minutes left until deadline On January 08 2012 09:31 Blazinghand wrote: No you guys come over to Erandorr we still have like 10ish minutes On January 08 2012 09:33 layabout wrote: A bit of derpage here although we really shouldn't be voting in the last 10-15 minutes so its almost accurateoh shit it is about 10-15 People still around: risk.nuke Blazinghand syllogism Palmar Mr. Wiggles layabout Refallen Grackaroni RoL -27 minutes left On January 08 2012 09:33 Refallen wrote: I'm going to swich in about 5 minutes if its clear no one is switching to risk Refallen is on risk.nuke if he switches then vote is 6/8 risk/eran The implication of this is that if people have not switched back in those 5 minutes Eran gets another vote, therefore if people on Eran switch to risk, risk is lynched, if they stay Eran gets lynched, so they will probably stay -25 minutes left A scumbag drops out of the sky, It used to be know as Jackal 58, it doesn't say much anymore On January 08 2012 09:35 Jackal58 wrote: Since Palmar isn't happening I switched to Erandorr. Between he and risk I'd rather have risk around another day. Erandorr's alignment will be impossible to determine by his activity. I think RoL did vote but he spelled it wrong. Dunno if that matters or not. Vote is now 7/8 risk/eran Refallen is promising to switch to Eran to no body switches back he also has a defence for RoL disappearing, could be nothing could be scummy -1 minute later Wiggles will now vote for Erandorr, so if people do what they have declared they will Erandorr is now going to be lynched On January 08 2012 09:36 Mr. Wiggles wrote: If two people switch to Erandorr, I'll hammer. Otherwise, move back onto risk. RoL, have you read "the last few pages" yet, it's been a half hour. -21 minutes until deadline I am willing to switch On January 08 2012 09:39 layabout wrote: if you switch back to risk will we have enough? i am willing to switch to eran if necessary On January 08 2012 09:39 Mr. Wiggles wrote: There's 11 minutes left. Zbot will only update two more times. Somebody switch, post, and I'll hammer. from this post i conclude that the lynch may in fact be at 9:50 instead of 10:00 in terms of the times at the post, either way there is very little time left! -20 or maybe 10 minutes left http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13048770 9:40 Refallen says he has changed to Eran 9:41 Then Wiggles says to expect flip in 4 minutes 9:41 Then I say i have changed to Eran (i posted done immediately after i sent my pm) risk.nuke (4): If we look at the vote count refallen unvotes first then wiggles does then i do ( i unvoted just before i voted and then posted "done") But if we look at the final votes for Eran (below) my vote clearly goes though before Erandorrs. Could Refallen have simply not voted? Votes are counted in the order they are received, correct? Yes. Will Zbot count votes received during the same refresh cycle after majority has been reached? Once majority has been reached, voting is over and all subsequent votes are ignored. (i didn't ask these questions) it seems like if Refallens vote was sent first then his name should have been on the list. He may have been trying to trick us into no-lyching but there is to much uncertainty for me to confidently say he did. It is a possiblity worth considering nevertheless On January 08 2012 09:45 ZBot wrote: End of Day 1 Lynched: Erandorr (10): Current votes: risk.nuke (4): Tyrran (1): RebirthOfLeGenD (0): Palmar (0): Refallen (0): Bluelightz (0): Mr. Wiggles (0): Dirkzor (0): HarbingerOfDoom (0): Grackaroni (0): Palmar and RoL have also claimed to have tried to vote for Erandorr too. -2 minutes before nightpost On January 08 2012 09:43 Refallen wrote: Risk if you're some kind of role you should claim, just pointing ouy In light of the fact that he allegedly just hammered Erandorr and that risk will live into the night, claiming would allow an acolyte to kill him, yes? -1 minute before nighpost care to explain this? On January 08 2012 09:44 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I did and I cast my vote for Erandorr through the PM thing. Here is my reasoning. Switching from target A to target B is highly unlikely to ever hit a scum barring a DT check (This is more true in town/scum no third faction games, but still holds true here) no second bandwagon should gain momentum if its scum because the scum wouldn't let it happen. That being said, since my other post only about 6-7 pages have happened in game iirc and somehow risk.nuke attained a near majority which is insane. There is no way you are going to hit scum with that kind of rapid vote switch and in fact, that somewhat incriminates Erandorr because why else would a vote switch happen so rapidly? I read some of Risk's posts, admittedly not all, but he didn't seem too bad from my point of view, I don't know what the hell palmar is getting at. But I only inferred that from his posts on pages 34-36ish since I know we are nearing the deadline. Lastly, I read Blazinghand's analysis of Erandorr which seemed good, in the sense that I agree that Erandorr comes off as a disconcerned scum on D1. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=298603¤tpage=37#723 So I am keeping my vote on Erandorr, anyone on the risk.nuke lynch is suspect for jumping ship so hard, if erandorr flips scum then Palmar deserves a hard look. I also have a plan I have been considering, I plan on enlightening you all during the night phase assuming I can flesh out all the weird possibilities in this set up. You say that Eran was the lynch and that risk.nuke was the scum, bandwagon. "Anyone on risk.nuke is suspect for jumping so hard" wtf? I hope that the rest of this post demonstrates why exactly that is incorrect You haven't even read all of risks posts? You ignore the case against risk but you decide that BH's analysis of Erandorr seemed good and can support it. In the hour or so between you popping up saying you wil read the thread, and you posting that you voted after people claimed to have decided the lynch what exactly did you do? because you apparantly haven't read both players filters and you have only reference one argument for one player being scummy and none for the other. You better present this plan soon because you have lurker harder than Erandor did and a number of people have said that you are a good target for night actions. So Yeah a lot can be made of what happened but i hope that this can help to clarify, what happened or can push you to carefully read though and draw your own conclusions! now time to proof reed... | ||
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layabout
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I explained it here [quote]I was so convinced that they would both flip scum, just different teams, that I thought the switch would produce free information. It did produce information, but unfortunately it was hardly free; I think Jackal looks quite suspicious as he suddenly shows up, hasn't even mentioned erandorr until then and only mentioned risk in passing and is immediately willing to switch to erandorr. If risk flips scum, Jackal is relatively likely to be his team mate.[/quote] Erandorr lied and his play looked exactly like his recent scum play. Unfortunately he apparently had some real life issues/was busy/lazy, so the lesson here is never to go for pure meta when there is a very good alternative that is based on something more substantial[/QUOTE] that hurts | ||
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also cwave had to take some of the blame for the lynch | ||
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How do the angels react to the colour claim? They probably target blues as they wish to kill town blues They could hide amongst the blues for protection or the sea of greens for anonymity therefore how do demons react to this plan? they claim green to reduce the chance of being killed by angels they take a massive risk and claim blue increasing their chances of being killed how do blues react? they claim blue and a no-flip death they claim green to minimise the chance of being killed by angels how do greens react? they claim green they claim blue so that angels kill them. The demons will know if any of the blue claims are demons, therefore the rest of the blue are angels vanilla town or blue town.Similarly the angels will know if any of the blues are angels so the rest are demons blues or vainlla taon. Why would the demons want to protect non-demon claiming blue? after all they need to kill two blues as part of their win condition. Why would the demons wish to corrupt a blue when then need to kill 2/4 town blue and when town blues are getting banished and demons only get corrupt every other night? How do we end up with 4 confirmed town? Especially if multiple vanilla's or scum claim blue. I think it is very likely that some people will not like this plan and that some town aligned people will fake-claim if it goes ahead, wouldn't this ruin the whole plan? If no vanilla town fake-claim then then angels will be killing a demon or blue every night, the only way to stop this is with the channeller. If the channeller dies and the demons do not protect blues town could lose all blues town could lose 4 blues in two nights, whilst that is an extreme scenario the plan is over reliant on the channeller +demon help AND we might not even know if the channeller is killed. Doesn't this plan give scum more information than it gives to town because they will know some of the fakers for certain? the more honest town is the better off the angels are. the less honest town is the less information town has but the better off they are in terms of living blues. it potentially put angels in a good position and demons in a manageable decision whilst it could put town in an okay-really bad position ... bad plan perhaps it can be adjusted but i think that currently it would do far more harm than good. | ||
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does RoL typically suggest plans and does anybody have links to previous ones? I spent ages in risk.nukes filters yesterday and i don't have the time to do more today. | ||
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Suggesting plans, including weird lynching strategies, is a null tell unless the plan in question is very pro town or otherwise demonstrates a pro town mindset. It can change from null to something else depending on who is saying it. If it's a player who isn't known for great scum play and wouldn't assume that majority of players to react in the same way I did (i.e. thinking that suggesting dumb plans is often towny), then it's probably slightly townly. If for instance someone is known for always coming up with plans and is smart, and then suggests a rather weak plan, it could be suspicious as then it seems like he is suggesting a plan only because he is known for doing that as town. I don't think I can generalize it better than that, and as I said I'm not reading the plan or your analysis of the plan. If you aren't sure, it's better to treat it as a null tell. I also think that Jackal, HoD and Cwave need to be looked at based on their roles in the lynching | ||
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