wtf BH already voted nay on Jackal? I do agree that an all new team would not be a good idea but already voting nay?
Jackal is the 7th on our leader list. It's not like his idea is engraved in stone and won't change anymore. That's just weird.

Jackal's not leader right now, Zona is (he's #3). That means there's 4 other teams or at least team suggestions that are bound to happen before Jackal is going to be leader and proooobably his mind might change during that process? At least I hope that another dayposts adds a piece to the puzzle for him as well, which he won't just ignore :p

GreYMisT

United States6736 Posts

December 30 2011 01:10 GMT

#242

I just did some math (someone please double check), and if we assume that 2 spies exist in the remaining 6 players who have not gone on a mission, and we randomly picked a team consisting of 4 players, we would have a 41.6 percent chance of having at least 1 spy on the team. even though we of course would not be RNGing a team, I will admit close to 50/50 odds are not really the best to go on at the moment.
Still waiting for zona's thoughts.

Blazinghand

United States25557 Posts

December 30 2011 01:12 GMT

#243

Neither is my vote engraved in stone and unchanging rigjt? Im jist leyting jackal know hisnidea is dumbbbbbbb. If he doesnt chsnge his mind when he comes up for leader today neother wil I . He hammered home a crappy team and is pushing another. I will not stand for this

Blazinghand

United States25557 Posts

December 30 2011 01:13 GMT

#244

Gremist thats old news jackals idea is clearly either moronical or scum as i have said

Blazinghand

United States25557 Posts

December 30 2011 01:15 GMT

#245

Also greymist your math is totally erong the ods are way way worse than that were talkung like 80% chance of 1+ spy

Blazinghand

United States25557 Posts

December 30 2011 01:15 GMT

#246

Ya man wtf 41.6% where did you learn your maths its def ovr 80%

Toadesstern

Germany16350 Posts

December 30 2011 01:18 GMT

#247

On December 30 2011 10:01 Blazinghand wrote:
Whats your rwad in me toad? Are you part of this elusive "most people" or are you countig me out just becaise some bros be hatin

You're more likely scum than palmar and rad for me I guess. The biggest issue I have is actually trying to figure out rad or palmar because they're both equally not contributing / taking sides which freaks me out.
I think you're the most likely to turn out mafia out of those 3 by a bit but I'd much rather get information on either palmar or rad because I can't differentiate between those 2 (actually zonas in there as well...) while having a better chance of success imo.

Toadesstern

Germany16350 Posts

December 30 2011 01:22 GMT

#248

If we only have 1 spy on mission-1 and we pick 4 now guys that would be 4/6 * 3/5 * 2/4 * 1/3 chances of getting town only.
That is 24 / 360 which is a chance of 6,6% to hit town only on d2 if we pick completly new 4 people.
That is a chance of roughly 93% to get at least 1 scum on d2

Toadesstern

Germany16350 Posts

December 30 2011 01:23 GMT

#249

EBWOP: Obviously that's only the pure math. Really looks better because we're not really going to randomly pick someone but instead pick people we think are town. We'd make an educated guess rather than a rnd-guess. That increases our chances but they're still as slim as you can get in this setup.

So yes. If you think there was only 1 spy on d1 picking 4 new people should not be an option,

Blazinghand

United States25557 Posts

December 30 2011 01:25 GMT

#250

Unless of course jackal is scim and wamts us to fail

Radfield

Canada2720 Posts

December 30 2011 01:59 GMT

#251

Blaze, you still didn't answer who you think should go today. What is your ideal team.

Also, I have no idea why I thought Jackal was third in line, but I did. I'm actually a bit surprised he answered my question the way he did, considering he shouldn't have even been thinking about picking teams given his low spot.

Zona, you need to put forward a team ASAP. It doesn't have to include you if for some reason you don't want to send yourself. But hustle up.

Blazinghand

United States25557 Posts

December 30 2011 02:12 GMT

#252

Rad i didjnt answe your questik adbi already mentioned causr im on my pjone and csnt like view peoples filtetd and stuff. Also read zonas post hes novoting his own team

Gos why does nobdoy read anybodybelses posts in this game

GreYMisT

United States6736 Posts

December 30 2011 02:26 GMT

#253

On December 30 2011 10:22 Toadesstern wrote:
If we only have 1 spy on mission-1 and we pick 4 now guys that would be 4/6 * 3/5 * 2/4 * 1/3 chances of getting town only.
That is 24 / 360 which is a chance of 6,6% to hit town only on d2 if we pick completly new 4 people.
That is a chance of roughly 93% to get at least 1 scum on d2

alright thanks, i knew i messed up somewhere. its been years since i have done probability stuff.

But my point still stands that I admit to being wrong about choosing the new people. Im still a bit worried that we have yet to hear from zona.

GreYMisT

United States6736 Posts

December 30 2011 02:27 GMT

#254

On December 30 2011 11:12 Blazinghand wrote:
Rad i didjnt answe your questik adbi already mentioned causr im on my pjone and csnt like view peoples filtetd and stuff. Also read zonas post hes novoting his own team

Gos why does nobdoy read anybodybelses posts in this game

I know you are posting from your phone and all, but maybe the above is a good example of why "nobdoy read anybodybelses posts"

Blazinghand

United States25557 Posts

December 30 2011 02:32 GMT

#255

Greymist read zonas filtr he explains tjst he ais nayvoting himself

Blazinghand

United States25557 Posts

December 30 2011 02:33 GMT

#256

Oh hey what a surprisr ppl finally listening to me and it turns out that i as always am right

GreYMisT

United States6736 Posts

December 30 2011 02:35 GMT

#257

she said she is nayvoting teams with her on them, not that she is going to nayvote herself when she becomes leader.

Blazinghand

United States25557 Posts

December 30 2011 02:38 GMT

#258

On December 29 2011 21:00 Zona wrote:
I agree that it's most likely that there was only 1 spy on the mission last night. However, all of you should not take my (
It's for this reason that if Truth's team is rejected, I will forgo choosing a team and all of you should just vote nay on me. That means GreY should start thinking about what team to propose.

As for Truth's team, I'm still mulling over whether or not Truth is likely town, because I think whether or not the team is good solely depends on if Truth is town.

Here greymist i help u

GreYMisT

United States6736 Posts

December 30 2011 02:40 GMT

#259

ah ok thanks.

Blazinghand

United States25557 Posts

December 30 2011 02:40 GMT

#260

Ya dats rigbt im bettet at fidng tjis stiff via phonr thsn you are via computerbo ya i even make post quote excerpt.for u huh

I wish anyone read ppkls posts