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On December 23 2011 15:20 L wrote: RE: People who argue like second graders.
Alright, here's a challenge to people who think GM did NOT lie about who he shot.
Give me a good explanation why every person who died, died. Do not bother trying to nitpick anything I've said until that point, otherwise it'll be pretty obvious that you're scum trying to muddy the waters because my analysis tells us WHO they shot, which allows us to go find out WHY.
I'll be waiting.
Annnnnd Go! Alright, I read all their posts. To start off, one of the reasons I place holder'd on Chezinu was because I found him suspicious. I will elaborate on that a bit later.
But from what I read, here is how I imagine the mafia decided their hits. They hit SamuelJackson for two reasons I can think of, 1. Curu/Sandroba are both good players, and you are essentially killing two heads there. I explained earlier how mafia should be more scared of a hydra then the town should be. On top of this he was making some decent posts and he was virtually tunneling Chezinu all day 1 and didn't want to deal with his insanity. A lot of people put up with Chezinu's insanity because they are too lazy to read it and statistically there is only a 20-25% chance he is mafia, right?
So that's why I think they killed the Hydra.
Jackal58 becomes a bit more complicated, but simply put he was a bit active, he has a bit of a reputation and had no one really suspecting him. Not a terrible hit since he wasn't likely to be getting protection either.
VE was a bit more complicated but I have two reasons. He was really active and seemed to be kind of making sense, at least compared to what I remember of him. But more importantly this post probably sealed his fate.
On December 22 2011 11:59 VisceraEyes wrote: Sheth I swear to Christ if you don't put your vote back on LSB something horrifying is going to happen to you overnight. Which brings me to my next question. What's up Sheth?
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On December 23 2011 15:33 L wrote:RE: Chaoser Just to make your life harder, I just remembered this post: Show nested quote +On December 22 2011 11:49 LSB wrote: Because Ver would defiantly put a duplicate of the same role in a game....
Wana test? I'll shoot you tonight if you wish, if you're town, we both die, if your mafia, you're probably too scared to face my shot A shot on a townie kills both. You're claiming have mafia with 3 kp, still don't know why Jackal died and now can't explain why RoL isn't dead. Try again. They were both town... they both claimed different roles. It's possible there is more than one variant on a vigilante in this game. Unless you are saying LSB fake claimed for some retarded reason and just never corrected himself, and that Gmarshal also fake claimed.
But why the hell would they both lie? L that is so convoluted and ridiculous. They both most likely told the truth and they probably had different roles. I dunno why GM assumed LSB had to be lying, it would be a silly mafia fake claim.
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On December 23 2011 16:32 L wrote:Show nested quote +On December 23 2011 15:42 chaoser wrote: Ok, you bring up a good point. I'll have to retread the whole claiming part of day 1 tomorrow but I still don't understand why gm would feel the need to lie at midnight, when all the actions have been set in stone and a lie would just confuse the town instead of being clean and simple. I feel like a more valid reason for the kills would be that a bus driver bussed his kill but that's also just speculation. RE: Bus driver Bus driver's possible, but the end result with respect to who mafia killed doesn't change, so it becomes entirely irrelevant whether or not he lied, only whether or not he shot Visc. If anyone bussed Visc/RoL they're either delusional or mafia, which means mafia has a bus driver. Which means this game is fucking broken. We can't call shots to confirm anyone. Roles like GM and LSB's can be rerouted with mafia knowledge of who's innocent to change a shot against mafia to a double townie kill. The only way of obtaining proper information about a shooter would be to have at least 3 people shoot during a night. But that's kinda beyond the fact. A driver is an assured +3 for mafia with a single night action. I hope you recognize that even hatters typically don't have that much firepower (3 bomb hatters are a +2 swing and take the entire game to set up). The only night action I've seen do more than a 3 kill swing for a team was the Murrayitis plague, but there were at least five plague related roles acting across 3-4(5?) days in the game that had to engineer the beautiful destruction that we set up for that one. RE: RoL I'm not claiming EITHER lied about their role. If LSB's role wasn't the same as GM's GM wouldn't have had a need to continue pushing him and would have said "oh shit, we DONT have the same role". But that's not the case. Nothing in ANY of LSBs or GMs post indicate that their vig shots do not work vs townies, with LSB basing his plea on the very fact that it does. GM replied to this very point without commenting on it. RE: GGQ So, you have VE shooting GM, who would die or confirm himself as green during the night. No. You also have 3 mafia KP per day which leads to LyLo on day 2 with a single missed justice vig. Double No. I don't like what you are doing. Its blatant fear mongering with insane theorizing behind this games set up. We can assume the mafia probably has a RB, and probably a GF, at most I'd give them one more power role which would probably be a medic which would encourage the idea of responsibility by allowing the mafia to punish the town trying to coordinate publicly. A bus driver makes the game crazy on so many levels while serving the same effect that a medic would by allowing them to disrupt hits, but would do it in a much more destructive manner.
You go even farther to say that there must be a bus driver and this game is fucked. Stop talking about crazy shit and be productive, I will just kill you if I see you fear mongering and not being productive one more time, its scummy as shit L and its not going to fly.
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On December 23 2011 18:41 prplhz wrote: Hey guys
I like GGQ's explanation of night actions. VisceraEyes bombed bumatlarge in Election Mafia on a somewhat flimsy reasonable, he's crazy like that. I think he shot GMarshal. I don't think mafia would shoot VisceraEyes on day1, which is why VisceraEyes shouldn't shoot on day1 if he's blue but again, he's crazy like that.
I think GMarshal was roleblocked last night, because who else would mafia roleblock? If he was roleblocked and he survived there could have been massive chaos day2 and he's a claimed blue who said he'd shoot somebody in the face, scum knows that he isn't kidding around so he's absolutely their best target for roleblock. I think that Chezinu is lying about his roleblock, consequently making him mafia. What do you guys think about that?
I'd post more about him but he's kinda hard to read you know. Read the game... If GM was roleblocked and hit that leaves 4 hits for the mafia/unclaimed, which is way too high. If GM was roleblocked he wouldn't of died because it would block both his hit and his suicide, not just the hit. The mafia know this assuming they are literate and since they thought he was going to hit a townie why would they roleblock GM since it would result in his death anyway? Hint: They wouldn't.
I don't even know what to say to this anymore. A bit scummy?
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On December 24 2011 03:06 prplhz wrote:Show nested quote +On December 24 2011 01:30 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:On December 23 2011 18:41 prplhz wrote: Hey guys
I like GGQ's explanation of night actions. VisceraEyes bombed bumatlarge in Election Mafia on a somewhat flimsy reasonable, he's crazy like that. I think he shot GMarshal. I don't think mafia would shoot VisceraEyes on day1, which is why VisceraEyes shouldn't shoot on day1 if he's blue but again, he's crazy like that.
I think GMarshal was roleblocked last night, because who else would mafia roleblock? If he was roleblocked and he survived there could have been massive chaos day2 and he's a claimed blue who said he'd shoot somebody in the face, scum knows that he isn't kidding around so he's absolutely their best target for roleblock. I think that Chezinu is lying about his roleblock, consequently making him mafia. What do you guys think about that?
I'd post more about him but he's kinda hard to read you know. Read the game... If GM was roleblocked and hit that leaves 4 hits for the mafia/unclaimed, which is way too high. If GM was roleblocked he wouldn't of died because it would block both his hit and his suicide, not just the hit. The mafia know this assuming they are literate and since they thought he was going to hit a townie why would they roleblock GM since it would result in his death anyway? Hint: They wouldn't. I don't even know what to say to this anymore. A bit scummy? I was in PYP:Insane that Protactinium hosted who was part Ver as I understood it. That game had a role called dreamflower that worked kinda like the vigilantes we've seen so far in this game. I really wanted this role so I asked a lot of questions about it and dreamflower only died from hitting someone, if they actually flipped town. Combined with what LSB said, I am going to assume it works like that in this game too. Also, GMarshal told people about his hits at 14:00KST which would leave no room for scum to organize their actions based on what he said. Therefore he did not lie and therefore scum would only know who he was going to hit, too late to change their own actions. This means that GMarshal was roleblocked, or that his target was magically protected by a medic but the latter I find extremely unlikely. VisceraEyes voted GMarshal during the whole claim/counterclaim thing, because VisceraEyes thought it was weird that there was another role like his (LSB) but even weirder that there was a third role. I don't really think this is too weird. I don't think that VisceraEyes was killed by town because he was obvious townie (why aren't you all obvious townies?) and I don't think that VisceraEyes was killed by scum because I don't think scum considered him to be a huge threat. I think it is likely that VisceraEyes shot somebody because he's a crazy man who does stuff like that. Palmar was shot by chaoser, GMarshal was shot by VisceraEyes who had to take responsibility for shooting a townie and died himself. Jackal58 and SamuelLJackson were shot by mafia. This means that the 4 mafia players have 2 hits, which doesn't sound unlikely to me. Sorry if I was unclear about this in my first post. This seems like the simplest explanation to me, any other explanation that assumes that GMarshal flipped himself by hitting you or assumes that GMarshal lied about his claim in his 14:00KST post seems very unlikely to me. I'd much rather assume that VisceraEyes was a responsibility vig than I would assume that GMarshal lied or that GMarshal would flip even without getting hit.
Now did you read the thread? You say here that you are speculating that GMarshal might have been some sort of suicide vigilante, after he had claimed suicide vigilante in the thread. Can you tell me why you are only speculating, that a confirmed townie who claimed suicide vig in thread, might be a suicide vig? "I'm guessing he has some sort of conscience", well the guy said that in this very thread! Did you read the thread? Are you saying that I am scum or what?
I'd actually much rather continue pushing BloodyC0bbler because night hit analysis of this magnitude is bound to have a huge error margin, that's why we can't really agree. wherebugsgo's defense of BloodyC0bbler has been "Yea, but WIFOM?", attacking the one argument that I said was very debatable, and pointing out that a traitor supported it. I thought about how traitors should act, and I don't think they're going to act overly scummy in hopes that scum will find them. They're probably going to act kinda townie while never pushing to get a scum lynched, and then make a guess at the remaining mafia when they have 2 shots and only have to hit 1. If they act scummy, then they get lynched (or shot in the face). I am uncertain as to whether my case was actually good or bad because only wherebugsgo and VisceraEyes ever really commented on it. Right now only me and wherebugsgo are actually trying to say who we find scummy, maybe somebody else could chime in at some point in a non-wishy-washy manner. I said I had not been current up until that point. Your scenario fails to explain why I am not dead, nor was I notified of any hit or protection. You are making some insane scenario to explain the night hits. Gmarshal killed himself. Why would you speculate VE was also the same type of vigi, and if so why the fuck would he hit GM?
I am not wasting time responding to you on this anymore, it is a complete waste of time.
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On December 24 2011 04:57 GGQ wrote:Show nested quote +On December 24 2011 04:19 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:On December 24 2011 03:06 prplhz wrote:On December 24 2011 01:30 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:On December 23 2011 18:41 prplhz wrote: Hey guys
I like GGQ's explanation of night actions. VisceraEyes bombed bumatlarge in Election Mafia on a somewhat flimsy reasonable, he's crazy like that. I think he shot GMarshal. I don't think mafia would shoot VisceraEyes on day1, which is why VisceraEyes shouldn't shoot on day1 if he's blue but again, he's crazy like that.
I think GMarshal was roleblocked last night, because who else would mafia roleblock? If he was roleblocked and he survived there could have been massive chaos day2 and he's a claimed blue who said he'd shoot somebody in the face, scum knows that he isn't kidding around so he's absolutely their best target for roleblock. I think that Chezinu is lying about his roleblock, consequently making him mafia. What do you guys think about that?
I'd post more about him but he's kinda hard to read you know. Read the game... If GM was roleblocked and hit that leaves 4 hits for the mafia/unclaimed, which is way too high. If GM was roleblocked he wouldn't of died because it would block both his hit and his suicide, not just the hit. The mafia know this assuming they are literate and since they thought he was going to hit a townie why would they roleblock GM since it would result in his death anyway? Hint: They wouldn't. I don't even know what to say to this anymore. A bit scummy? I was in PYP:Insane that Protactinium hosted who was part Ver as I understood it. That game had a role called dreamflower that worked kinda like the vigilantes we've seen so far in this game. I really wanted this role so I asked a lot of questions about it and dreamflower only died from hitting someone, if they actually flipped town. Combined with what LSB said, I am going to assume it works like that in this game too. Also, GMarshal told people about his hits at 14:00KST which would leave no room for scum to organize their actions based on what he said. Therefore he did not lie and therefore scum would only know who he was going to hit, too late to change their own actions. This means that GMarshal was roleblocked, or that his target was magically protected by a medic but the latter I find extremely unlikely. VisceraEyes voted GMarshal during the whole claim/counterclaim thing, because VisceraEyes thought it was weird that there was another role like his (LSB) but even weirder that there was a third role. I don't really think this is too weird. I don't think that VisceraEyes was killed by town because he was obvious townie (why aren't you all obvious townies?) and I don't think that VisceraEyes was killed by scum because I don't think scum considered him to be a huge threat. I think it is likely that VisceraEyes shot somebody because he's a crazy man who does stuff like that. Palmar was shot by chaoser, GMarshal was shot by VisceraEyes who had to take responsibility for shooting a townie and died himself. Jackal58 and SamuelLJackson were shot by mafia. This means that the 4 mafia players have 2 hits, which doesn't sound unlikely to me. Sorry if I was unclear about this in my first post. This seems like the simplest explanation to me, any other explanation that assumes that GMarshal flipped himself by hitting you or assumes that GMarshal lied about his claim in his 14:00KST post seems very unlikely to me. I'd much rather assume that VisceraEyes was a responsibility vig than I would assume that GMarshal lied or that GMarshal would flip even without getting hit.
Now did you read the thread? You say here that you are speculating that GMarshal might have been some sort of suicide vigilante, after he had claimed suicide vigilante in the thread. Can you tell me why you are only speculating, that a confirmed townie who claimed suicide vig in thread, might be a suicide vig? "I'm guessing he has some sort of conscience", well the guy said that in this very thread! Did you read the thread? Are you saying that I am scum or what?
I'd actually much rather continue pushing BloodyC0bbler because night hit analysis of this magnitude is bound to have a huge error margin, that's why we can't really agree. wherebugsgo's defense of BloodyC0bbler has been "Yea, but WIFOM?", attacking the one argument that I said was very debatable, and pointing out that a traitor supported it. I thought about how traitors should act, and I don't think they're going to act overly scummy in hopes that scum will find them. They're probably going to act kinda townie while never pushing to get a scum lynched, and then make a guess at the remaining mafia when they have 2 shots and only have to hit 1. If they act scummy, then they get lynched (or shot in the face). I am uncertain as to whether my case was actually good or bad because only wherebugsgo and VisceraEyes ever really commented on it. Right now only me and wherebugsgo are actually trying to say who we find scummy, maybe somebody else could chime in at some point in a non-wishy-washy manner. I said I had not been current up until that point. Your scenario fails to explain why I am not dead, nor was I notified of any hit or protection. You are making some insane scenario to explain the night hits. Gmarshal killed himself. Why would you speculate VE was also the same type of vigi, and if so why the fuck would he hit GM? I am not wasting time responding to you on this anymore, it is a complete waste of time. You are obviously not reading very carefully at all, or you are purposefully misunderstanding. His (my) scenario explains why you are not dead; Gmarshal was roleblocked. Are you subscribing to the explanation that GMarshal shot VE (or possibly jackal or hydra), after claiming he shot you in a post after the deadline? How do you explain this? Or do you think he died for trying to shoot you? In that case, what is your explanation for being alive and not receiving notification of a protection? I explained I think he kills himself if he targets town. If GM was roleblocked then he wouldn't of killed himself. VE killing Gmarshal assumes VE is a a vigi and that he hit him, two things we have no reason to believe.
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On December 24 2011 07:33 L wrote:Show nested quote +On December 24 2011 01:20 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:On December 23 2011 16:32 L wrote:On December 23 2011 15:42 chaoser wrote: Ok, you bring up a good point. I'll have to retread the whole claiming part of day 1 tomorrow but I still don't understand why gm would feel the need to lie at midnight, when all the actions have been set in stone and a lie would just confuse the town instead of being clean and simple. I feel like a more valid reason for the kills would be that a bus driver bussed his kill but that's also just speculation. RE: Bus driver Bus driver's possible, but the end result with respect to who mafia killed doesn't change, so it becomes entirely irrelevant whether or not he lied, only whether or not he shot Visc. If anyone bussed Visc/RoL they're either delusional or mafia, which means mafia has a bus driver. Which means this game is fucking broken. We can't call shots to confirm anyone. Roles like GM and LSB's can be rerouted with mafia knowledge of who's innocent to change a shot against mafia to a double townie kill. The only way of obtaining proper information about a shooter would be to have at least 3 people shoot during a night. But that's kinda beyond the fact. A driver is an assured +3 for mafia with a single night action. I hope you recognize that even hatters typically don't have that much firepower (3 bomb hatters are a +2 swing and take the entire game to set up). The only night action I've seen do more than a 3 kill swing for a team was the Murrayitis plague, but there were at least five plague related roles acting across 3-4(5?) days in the game that had to engineer the beautiful destruction that we set up for that one. RE: RoL I'm not claiming EITHER lied about their role. If LSB's role wasn't the same as GM's GM wouldn't have had a need to continue pushing him and would have said "oh shit, we DONT have the same role". But that's not the case. Nothing in ANY of LSBs or GMs post indicate that their vig shots do not work vs townies, with LSB basing his plea on the very fact that it does. GM replied to this very point without commenting on it. RE: GGQ So, you have VE shooting GM, who would die or confirm himself as green during the night. No. You also have 3 mafia KP per day which leads to LyLo on day 2 with a single missed justice vig. Double No. I don't like what you are doing. Its blatant fear mongering with insane theorizing behind this games set up. We can assume the mafia probably has a RB, and probably a GF, at most I'd give them one more power role which would probably be a medic which would encourage the idea of responsibility by allowing the mafia to punish the town trying to coordinate publicly. A bus driver makes the game crazy on so many levels while serving the same effect that a medic would by allowing them to disrupt hits, but would do it in a much more destructive manner. You go even farther to say that there must be a bus driver and this game is fucked. Stop talking about crazy shit and be productive, I will just kill you if I see you fear mongering and not being productive one more time, its scummy as shit L and its not going to fly. RE: You RoL, there's a difference between mildly not understanding logic and implying that I'm saying the opposite of what I'm saying. I said there CANNOT be a bus, specifically on the mafia team, because given the roles that have been claimed thus far it would be off the charts ridiculously powerful. Seriously, what the shit. Why are you even talking about it then? No one mentioned it to begin with, the way you were wording it was strange and I see what you meant but why are you even analyzing what the fuck could of happened so hard? You are talking about elaborate scenarios that have no relevance.
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Alright well, time to be productive. Sorry guys, I have been lazy and hesitant and whether or not to do this analysis.
BC is scum. So I have arrived at this from three points of analysis which I will go into detail about. But first, an overview. BC hasn't done shit all game, was a bit defensive in his posting and overall didn't really do much. He just posted some generic text blocks to fulfill minimum requirements. The second point is the previous night hits which I can explain, and thirdly his place on the voting list for the LSB lynch and him basically sheeping the vote.
Part I: Posting BC has basically done nothing all game, as I am sure most of you know. He does play a tight game and I don't believe without much posting we can easily see a developing scum agenda, but I feel this is enough to work on for now.
On December 21 2011 13:15 BloodyC0bbler wrote:OK, this game is seriously wtf balls at the moment. To state a few things after my quick read through the thread. Bum and chez regardless of alignment have actively helped people regardless of what people may or may not believe. Their posts illustrate what I am saying. If you cannot find it now it will become apparent later. As for the general play of this game. It is responsibility mafia. This should just mean Ver has made a game that is designed to stop blatant asshattery. Playing badly will get punished is the general take. Now one point of this game that has me instantly glued to is the whole idea of RNG day 1 lynch. L is saying its anti town to base an initial lynch off it while palmar believes it is pro town. Guess what? L is right, Palmar is wrong. RNG the person who is lynched gives no real onus to the player or players responsible for the name being brought up and then lynched. In a game with a no flip on role mechanic will also not let us glean information about the games setup. Since the advantage of discussing lynch choices day 1 is forcing people to take a stand via analysis not luck. If you analyze player x and they flip town you look slightly bad. If the logic used was poor then information was garnered on the accuser. If you RNG a day 1 lynch it is a crap shot and you learn near nothing from the lynch except the few peoples stance on RNG who started the process. Now as Palmar is pushing an obvious shitty play I will quote something of his. Show nested quote +On December 20 2011 08:05 Palmar wrote: Alright people, let's make this a game worth referencing to new people if they want to see how mafia should be played.
No lazy posting, no bullshit. Step your game up, for your post you have a filter of terribly uninspired posts talking about very neutral topics. Some generic advice, a soft defense of Chezinu. Makes some easy, concise statements without really taking any inflammatory or controversial stance. Yeah, RNG is retarded. Mildly attacks palmar and just says step up his game.
On December 22 2011 06:39 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On December 21 2011 18:53 Palmar wrote: Are you around for a bit syllo? I really need someone to talk to.
Yes I do agree that GM would be a pretty good lynch today. I tried to get him to explain why all he had to offer was policy lynches but he hasn't posted since. I don't think we should be lynching prplhz though, he's marginally more useful than most people in this thread.
Did you notice that BloodyC0bbler came into the thread and the one thing he focused on was the RNG idea, something that had been out of the discussion for a long while by then. I still believe it's a good idea if a town would roll with it from the start, but at the point his post is completely irrelevant to the discussion, to the point that this post is basically a huge pile of nothing. We know absolutely nothing about BC from that one post.
In addition I've had a problem with L's posting since the very beginning, I don't know if this was how you posted back when he was playing but in today's environment that's almost enough to just lynch him by default.
And finally, what do you think about WBG's case on LSB? Do you agree with me that it felt a bit forced, especially the part where he basically flat out accused LSB of being a SK?
Did anyone notice that aside from a post about rng, random accusations with no merit and posting random fluff posts talking generalities about things Palmar had provided nothing of any substance in any town way, including this post? Hell up to this post most of them were total spam posts. Has anyone noticed he made a few more fluff posts then followed it up on a case against GM for wanting to policy lynch a Hydra? Account sharers have proven to ruin games and have an advantage other players don't. Starting a game off before any information is gleaned by saying "lets off the hydras" is not a terrible post. Had he been actively pushing it and bullying people to do so maybe. He then makes a post to "further incriminate" gm then again attacks me based off my post I made saying that I only covered 3 points. One of those points is "vague" to only players who aren't seriously reading this thread, one point was on talking about something that was so obviously scummy and was something palmar said was pro town (its not) that I had to comment. Even if someone says something ages before you post, if it scummy you comment on it. People do not get a free pass on old comments. I then told him to stop making vague posts. He was doing so till that point and only started giving somewhat non shite posts after I called him out. So apparently 3 valid points. Now, I only respond to these posts as he was tossing shit my way for my play. Up until I called him out Palmar was playing like shite. However he is actively playing so I am inclined to let him continue posting to give us a better read on him. As for the game at hand as it is now. LSB should be hanged. Anyone go filter him. He hasn't really defended himself at all from any heat given, nor has he provided any real analysis on anyone. Near every post of his seems to be quoting people asking questions of clarification on shite rather than contributing in any meaningful manner. Near none of his posts say fuck all about himself and most of them are short as the "long ones" are only long due to quote usage. So until he comes out with anything substantial to keep him alive im voting him. ##vote lsb Comes in basically just to defend himself, then writes a little bit and votes LSB. I will explain the relevance of this in the next section.
Part II: The Hits Now let's look at the previous nights hits.
On December 23 2011 14:19 Ver wrote:Day 2 SamuelLJackson's attempt to drink soup through one head and spit it out through the other backfired. Jackal58 was flattened out by a bowling ball. VisceraEyes found out that drinking hot soup out of a wine glass produces disastrous results. GMarshal found out that it was a bad idea to enlist in the Nazi army. Palmar was ejected into outer space and asphixiated. Day 2 is extended by 24 hours and ends at Sun Dec 25 05:00 GMT (+00:00) We have 5 dead, two hits we can reasonably explain. Chaoser claimed killing Palmar who could be a traitor/third party according to the rules and Gmarshal killing himself by hitting me. So that leaves 3, VE, Jackal58, and SamuelLJackson (Curu/Sandroba).
Assuming BC is more active behind the scenes I can easily explain at least two of these hits and having played a bunch with BC I have seen him use these justifications before for hits. Let me show a post I made earlier when L asked me to explain the hits assuming GM didn't get hit.
On December 23 2011 15:42 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On December 23 2011 15:20 L wrote: RE: People who argue like second graders.
Alright, here's a challenge to people who think GM did NOT lie about who he shot.
Give me a good explanation why every person who died, died. Do not bother trying to nitpick anything I've said until that point, otherwise it'll be pretty obvious that you're scum trying to muddy the waters because my analysis tells us WHO they shot, which allows us to go find out WHY.
I'll be waiting.
Annnnnd Go! Alright, I read all their posts. To start off, one of the reasons I place holder'd on Chezinu was because I found him suspicious. I will elaborate on that a bit later. But from what I read, here is how I imagine the mafia decided their hits. They hit SamuelJackson for two reasons I can think of, 1. Curu/Sandroba are both good players, and you are essentially killing two heads there. I explained earlier how mafia should be more scared of a hydra then the town should be. On top of this he was making some decent posts and he was virtually tunneling Chezinu all day 1 and didn't want to deal with his insanity. A lot of people put up with Chezinu's insanity because they are too lazy to read it and statistically there is only a 20-25% chance he is mafia, right? So that's why I think they killed the Hydra. Jackal58 becomes a bit more complicated, but simply put he was a bit active, he has a bit of a reputation and had no one really suspecting him. Not a terrible hit since he wasn't likely to be getting protection either. VE was a bit more complicated but I have two reasons. He was really active and seemed to be kind of making sense, at least compared to what I remember of him. But more importantly this post probably sealed his fate. Show nested quote +On December 22 2011 11:59 VisceraEyes wrote: Sheth I swear to Christ if you don't put your vote back on LSB something horrifying is going to happen to you overnight. Which brings me to my next question. What's up Sheth? In many games I have played with BC I have seen him shoot someone based off some soft claim. VisceraEyes threatened someone in thread and said he would perform a night action on them, implying he has a blue role of some sort.
On December 22 2011 11:59 VisceraEyes wrote: Sheth I swear to Christ if you don't put your vote back on LSB something horrifying is going to happen to you overnight. This is a prime example of that and while other people I am sure would use that rationale to justify a hit, I know I have seen BC do it in at least two games. Specifically in FlameWheel's game he used to to justify a hit on Mataza because he hinted medic in thread (but was vet), another time was when we played mafia, its how he created a blue snipe list. I can't recall the specific game and I'm not going to try to figure it out. Lastly, VE also suspected BC which I am sure might of made the decision a bit easier.
The next hit is Sandroba/Curu. This as I explained earlier was mafia fear of two heads which made the hit made sense. Furthermore they were both playing pretty well. But most importantly was BC knows Sandroba is fucking good. When we played in FlameWheel's game I got pinned in some retarded trap by Sandroba/Mataza where they thought they leaked info to me and thought I would respond by killing them both to cover my ass. What actually happened was Sandroba got drunk and told BC his scum suspects, which amounted to the entire scum team minus BC. Sandroba had NEVER posted that list publicly or told me or Mataza. That night BC killed Sandroba and hit Mataza thinking he would kill a blue in Mataza, and a dangerous player in Sandroba.
Part III: The Lynch
On December 22 2011 14:12 Ver wrote:Night 1 After much rioting and dueling, things finally settled down as LSB was meekly led to the noose. The crowd eagerly gathered around to see a happy spectacle. However, their hopes were dashed as LSB the innocent was lynched!
Night Actions are due by 05:00 GMT (+00:00) tomorrow. Day 1 Final Votecount Show nested quote +On December 17 2011 12:44 ZBot wrote:Day 1 Vote Count
With 20 alive, it takes 11 to lynch.Current votes: LSB (12): wherebugsgo, SamuelLJackson, Jackal58, BloodyC0bbler, VisceraEyes, syllogism, - VisceraEyes, VisceraEyes, Palmar, Foolishness, bumatlarge, Liquid`Sheth, GMarshal, - Liquid`Sheth, GGQ, prplhz, - Foolishness, Mr. WigglesGMarshal (2): Palmar, - Palmar, GGQ, VisceraEyes, - VisceraEyes, kitaman27, Liquid`Sheth, - GGQ, Foolishness, Mr. Wiggles, - kitaman27, - Mr. WigglesL (1): chaoser, Palmar, - PalmarPalmar (1): VisceraEyes, - VisceraEyes, VisceraEyes, Chezinu, bumatlarge, - VisceraEyes, L, - bumatlarge, - ChezinuFoolishness (1): VisceraEyes, - VisceraEyes, kitaman27SamuelLJackson (1): GMarshal, bumatlarge, Chezinu, VisceraEyes, - bumatlarge, - VisceraEyes, - Chezinu, LSB, - GMarshal, - LSB, ChezinuChezinu (1): RebirthOfLeGenDVisceraEyes (1): prplhz, LSB, - prplhzkitaman27 (0): GMarshal, - GMarshalBloodyC0bbler (0): Mr. Wiggles, - Mr. WigglesLiquid`Sheth (0): kitaman27, - kitaman27Voting ends at December 22 2011 14:00. (It's over.) Here is where I think the mafia made a big mistake.
On December 23 2011 14:33 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote + LSB (12): wherebugsgo, SamuelLJackson, Jackal58, BloodyC0bbler, VisceraEyes, syllogism, -VisceraEyes, VisceraEyes, Palmar, Foolishness, bumatlarge, Liquid`Sheth, GMarshal, -Liquid`Sheth, GGQ, prplhz, -Foolishness, Mr. Wiggles
They killed half the people who voted for LSB. Using basic reasoning, we can assume that the LSB wagon most likely has a couple of scum on it. Knowing a wagon is going to kill a townie, they most likely sheeped it or didn't comment much. BC Did just that.
However, the sheep vote isn't the worst part since it could be argued BC was one of the first few voters on and just wasn't around to change his vote, but that is precisely why its scummy. I believe wholeheartedly BC probably read the thread and chose to not comment or try to change his vote because it was beneficial to his win condition as mafia. He can thus claim inactivity and not draw speculation. In this sense, he is conspicuous by his act of silence and his convenient inactivity.
To stress this further, the third or fourth person on a lynch is most likely scum, assuming the lynch hits a townie. BC falls right into that category.
So there you have it. BC is scum, 3 times isn't a coincidence, its an enemy action. No contribution, fishy voting, hit analysis. It all points to BC.
##Vote: BloodyC0bbler
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On December 25 2011 12:11 bumatlarge wrote: I don't think that's very strong, Alot of those things seem very coincidental. The voting in particular seems very pushed, 12 people were on it, and the "third-fourth voter is scum thing" doesn't do a lot to convince me.
Mostly cause Wiggles immediately jumped on it. A lot of people are legitimately busy, and the analysisis appreciated, but BC being inactive because it's his diabolic scum plot doesn't sit right with me.
His initial posts and the night-hits make sense if he was scum though, so I'll be open to switch f we need to get a lynch through. Otherwise I'll be focusing on Wiggles. http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Mastin's_Insane_Tells#Mit_.23_2--Bandwagonning_Early_On http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=JEEP's_Tells_for_Finding_Mafia It makes sense for voting, It has to due with his voting range and the convenience of not being around.
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On December 25 2011 13:55 BloodyC0bbler wrote: still busy with xmas shit, but to add in the one piece of information I can add that is relevant to this entire thing.
I shot GM. Be back in a bit or sometime tommorrow. Cool, why claim this now? Why would you even hit GM? There was a good chance he would die regardless since his role involved killing scum or dying.
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Why did it take so long, and that is your only reason for shooting him? The mafia would either have to not RB anyone, RB people they are killing if GM was scum and wanted to do that or he would be counterclaimed instantly and die. You aren't stupid, how long could he keep an "I got RBed" charade up? Not long if at all. Even if the mafia did the RB + hit on people I doubt Veterans are effected in this set up because I don't think Ver has ever done that, and a medic could still save a target they RB + hit.
Would a RB negate Veteran status if veterans hypothetically existed in this set up?
You had to have another reason to hit GM, and for what reason could you only hit GM?
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Imo, you are only claiming a hit that won't get counterclaimed because GM most likely killed himself as a result of his role.
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Can we get some more activity up in this bitch?
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On December 27 2011 08:07 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On December 27 2011 00:45 syllogism wrote: BC can you full claim; for some reason you didn't despite being asked to earlier. I find it curious that you found it a good idea to "waste" your shot like that in the light of your filter suggesting that you were suspicious of Palmar who had been pushing GM for most of day 1.
##vote BloodyC0bbler I couldn't shoot palmar or I would have. Before lsb was lynched I was able to shoot him as well but with his lynch that became impossible. Near every kp role in this game as a trigger from what I can tell so far and until the conditions have been met you can't use your powers. Plain and simple. Interesting considering that we as town actually don't any of the roles as fact, but the mafia does. gg~
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On December 27 2011 08:07 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On December 27 2011 00:45 syllogism wrote: BC can you full claim; for some reason you didn't despite being asked to earlier. I find it curious that you found it a good idea to "waste" your shot like that in the light of your filter suggesting that you were suspicious of Palmar who had been pushing GM for most of day 1.
##vote BloodyC0bbler I couldn't shoot palmar or I would have. Before lsb was lynched I was able to shoot him as well but with his lynch that became impossible. Near every kp role in this game as a trigger from what I can tell so far and until the conditions have been met you can't use your powers. Plain and simple. Interesting considering that we as town actually don't know any of the roles as fact, but the mafia does. gg~
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So you thought GM was town and believed his claim but shot him? Or after the fact you now believe him? Either way you inferred absolute knowledge which none of us should have or feel comfortable saying we have. But as I said before, everything you claimed has been too convenient.
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On December 27 2011 15:30 Foolishness wrote:Hey RoL, got a big question for you: Show nested quote +On December 25 2011 08:33 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: We have 5 dead, two hits we can reasonably explain. Chaoser claimed killing Palmar who could be a traitor/third party according to the rules and Gmarshal killing himself by hitting me. So that leaves 3, VE, Jackal58, and SamuelLJackson (Curu/Sandroba).
You claimed that you did not take a hit last night. LSB confirmed that if he shoots a green both the green and him die. Thus you should be dead, as GM dying is accounted for now. But I am also curious why you would say what I highlighted in your post if you were town. Seems like you wrote that because you have extra information on some sort of night events happening. LSB didn't hit me, Gmarshal did. They could feasibly have different roles, GM never said to the contrary.
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Where did they post and compare exact role PMs? Last time I checked that's not allowed. Either way, I can only explain it as I did. I didn't take a hit and if I were scum we wouldn't of been able to change medic protection from whoever to me by the time GM posted who he was going to kill.
You could pretend mafia RBed GM and killed him, but that would leave quite a few hits unexplained. Do you believe BC's claim, or what flaws do you see with my analysis of him? What else makes you think I am scum?
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On December 28 2011 06:13 Foolishness wrote: The other day I thought that BC was red, but his claim makes a lot of sense.
Why RoL is still alive is the biggest problem at the moment. If GM breadcrumbed his real target (which most people seem to think he didn't) I haven't been able to figure out the real target.
Pretend that you are RoL and you are mafia. You got shot last night but you survived due to whatever reason (medic, veteran, etc). What would you say in the thread? You are highly suspicious cause you were inactive day 1, so claiming that you took a hit isn't going to do anything for you since it will just make the town lynch you anyways. But if you claim that nothing happened to you during the night, suddenly you might be saved since everyone is now distracted with what really happened during the night. And perhaps GM's suspicions of you were just a farce to hide his real shot.
We should still kill bugs at some point though. I guess we will know tomorrow, won't we?
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On December 28 2011 10:04 prplhz wrote: @Foolishness
Why did you not change your vote to BloodyC0bbler then? You didn't push wherebugsgo very hard either, it was one post that might have attracted attention, but nobody really picked up the ball from there. Are you telling me that you thought that your vote was more well placed on wherebugsgo than on BloodyC0bbler, who had a lot more votes and who you also thought was scum? If you still think we should lynch wherebugsgo, then why didn't you push him harder yesterday? What did you do yesterday?
Why does his claim making sense make him blue instead of red? He claimed 48 hours into the day, he absolutely knew that there would be no counter claims. So far, we have had three vigilantes claim, BloodyC0bbler should absolutely know that with this many vigilantes, any vigilante most likely does not have two shots and so they have no reasons not to tell town about their shots as soon as possible. Why does this claim make him blue instead of red? Considering this and how close he was to getting lynched yesterday, a claim like that doesn't seem very risky for a scum at all. Wouldn't BC make 4 vigilantes?
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