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Ok, gone through Sheth's filter again using a pretty lame pattern-spotting technique. Basically I mark positive comments (praise, defence, positive analysis) as a plus and negative comments (calling for attention, attacks, negative analysis) as a minus. It looks better in fixedsys. In order of appearance:
+ Show Spoiler +
Radfield+++-
Greymist++++++
Arctocod-----
prplhz-----
Deus+++++++---
risk---+--+
ProfBA--++----V
DropBear-
xsksc--
zentor-----
zeks--------++-
Nisani/VE+--
Refallen----
Eiii--
Spaackle+--V
Cascades---------
Comprissent----
Evantrees----
Giygas-------
Marserblood/jaj22------
TNTP+-
nyczbrandon+---V
Cwave-+
Jitsu--
A lot of the minus-heavy lines aren't as similar as they look here, so they're pretty misleading. He presses prplhz, Zeks, Zentor and Giygas in a relatively concentrated manner, while the others are mostly "clean up these lurkers" spamreads and shouldn't be treated equivalently.
Other general patterns:
1. If he presses anyone hard, they flip town.
2. He's not afraid to criticise scumbuddies a bit.
3. If veterans say stuff that he likes, he praises them.
TNTP and Cwave get off very lightly, while Jitsu is a very late addition to his day/night 3 spamreads. He buddies up consistently with Deus until night 3. There's likely to have been some distancing in his day/night 3 posting, but it's so scattershot that it doesn't narrow anything down. Other than that I'm not seeing much of use here.
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On December 23 2011 13:50 TotallyNotTwoPeople wrote:Why Refallen is likely town: Show nested quote +Skimming through the thread I would give a town read to prplhz, Radfield and Greymist. Check, check, and check.
No logic though. Might just be picking up some towncred by naming some probable night 1/2 targets. Greymist is playing so blue that he gets jumped on during day 3. Also Radfield's only "confirmed" by meta and WIFOM'd roleblocks, right? I'm kinda trusting the vets on that.
On December 23 2011 13:50 TotallyNotTwoPeople wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2011 12:12 Refallen wrote:On December 14 2011 12:09 Radfield wrote:On December 14 2011 12:08 Refallen wrote:On December 14 2011 12:06 ProfessorBadass wrote:
Holy hell all the non-posters just flooded out to vote Spaackle.
wtf Sorry, really didn't have time to do anything than a quick skim or two of the thread and I just decided to bandwagon him. I understand that this seems like a scummy thing to do but honestly with everyone pushing for a lynch I thought that getting on the bandwagon would be the most beneficial for town (see TL Mafia XLVIII for when no-lynches happen and screws town up lolol) Refallen there is no chance of a mislynch in this game. Whoever gets the most votes dies. Oh okay, I didn't know that. And sorry, I'll stop talking about the other game. I realise I'm not exactly appearing the most pro-town now and I would like to remedy that. However, I find it hard to come up with original content, especially when I missed most of day 1 and thus could not get involved in the 20+ pages of discussion that happened then. It seems like whenever I think of something it has already been addressed in the thread. I am sure scum were aware that this game was not extended majority. So unless he was feigning ignorance to try to get away with his bandwagoning (which I doubt), a point for him being town.
As someone mentioned earlier (or was that another game?), most scum teams talk very little apart from nightkills. Otherwise, if feigning ignorance gives you towncred, scum may have told him to do just that.
On December 23 2011 13:50 TotallyNotTwoPeople wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2011 15:29 Refallen wrote:
We can reasonably treat Artocod as town at this point. And since we have confirmation that Palmar didn't withdraw, what do we make of the fact that profbadass immediately stepped up for the pardoner post? Don't you think that this is the kind of exact ideal situation that mafia would have tried to brew, getting a mafia pardoner, when Artocod was forced to withdraw? Calls out the exact scum plan...not something I'd think scum would do.
I'm sure everyone in the thread was thinking exactly the same thing, but it'd take balls for scum to post it, and I'd mark Refallen as on the timid side.
On December 23 2011 13:50 TotallyNotTwoPeople wrote:Show nested quote +On December 15 2011 12:46 Refallen wrote:On December 15 2011 03:22 zeks wrote:
DTs please review the lists for Spaackle lynch and ProfessorBA election vote
The idea that the list of those who had voted for ProfBA to be pardoner has to have some mafia in it is something I've seen more than one person espousing in the thread so I just want to say that I completely disagree with this line of thinking right now. Firstly, as ProfBA has pointed out, he was the natural choice of pardoner after palmar/syllo votes were nulled. And he was even there at that time to immediately step up and say "I am the natural choice," something that I am sure many people agreed with. There is simply no reason for mafia to need to vote ProfBA to get him to office (note that I'm not actually saying that ProfBA is scum/town or anything, but just illustrating the fact that the idea that scum votes must be on ProfBA is false, since even if he was scum, the mafia didn't need to vote for him because of the lack of another viable candidate as well as ProfBA actively going for the pardoner role.) So no, if anything I think the Radfield list is more likely to contain scum. What do you guys think? Unless Greymist or Radfield are somehow scum, even if Refallen is scum 4 scum had to be on Radfield. Giving away where his whole team was hiding when he could easily increase suspicion on the others? I highly doubt that.
Not sure about "giving away", given that no-one's likely to take much notice, but I agree that this doesn't look like a scum post.
On December 23 2011 13:50 TotallyNotTwoPeople wrote:
Was clearly not fond of Sheth:
Well, he backed away from pressing him twice, although you could put that down to his natural lack of aggression. His last post on Sheth was actually a defence (spoilered due to length):
+ Show Spoiler +On December 21 2011 11:25 Refallen wrote:Show nested quote +On December 21 2011 11:18 TotallyNotTwoPeople wrote:On December 21 2011 11:15 Refallen wrote:
Why is cascades suddenly a prime target for lynching? I really think he's town. How do you have a good town read on a guy with a filter that doesn't even reach page 2? Please, quote what makes you think he is town. Even though some of his posts has been accusing Palmar/Radfield of being scum and defending them, I think if you read the entirety of his filter, there seems to be a common theme in the sense that this is a guy who likes to form his own opinion instead of sheeping the other vets, and is wary of trusting the vets too much. Quotes like Show nested quote +Now spaackle has turned up innocent, and a blue too. If I was to redo my lynch, would I lynch spaackle again? The answer is yes. Though I was uncertain, he was the best option at that time, better than MrZentor. For the information of those who were not there near voting deadline, the two leading votegetters were MrZentor and spaackle. MrZentor had "softclaimed" blue so to speak. That left us spaackle. We had to vote and lynch for information. Certainly, we took an "easy lynch" so to speak, but the risk was worth it if we managed to catch a scum. Though we failed, it is expected as day 1 mafia lynches are rare apparently. Show nested quote +
Look, I know we made a mistake. Still, this post says nothing except "I was so sure spaackle was townie and I was right" If another townie made this, what would you think of it? When you call people out town, you are automatically correct?
Firstly, BOTH ProfBadass and Radfield agreed he was a good lynch. And while you said spaackle was town, it was a sentence throwaway that was easily missed and not justified. Radfield gave his reasoning so we switched away from MrZentor.
Secondly, spaackle continued posting after you went to bed. He could and did post stuff that affected people's reads on him.
I'm disappointed. This post would feel scummy coming from a vet if it wasn't for the fact I feel you are basically confirmed right now.
dosen't seem like he's showing any fear, which I think is protown. Kind of like Sheth, he's been pretty active about asking people to post cases and will follow his own lynch targets instead of sheeping people. That's the feeling I got from him. (Also since we're both from Singapore it's highly likely that he's asleep and won't be able to defend himself and for the past 8 hours, since it's early morning here.)
This is during his rather weird defence of Cascades.
Overall though, I think Sheth flipping red gives him a lot of towncred, so I'm looking for better lynches.
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On December 23 2011 22:21 Cwave wrote:
In a hour i'm gonna be heading to the airport to board my flight and i won't be back online till after the day ends.
To repeat, im a vanilla townie and today i election voted on Radfield and lynch voted on cascades.
A blind vote in secret ballot? Really? Are you feeling suicidal?
To clarify, Cwave has never given any reasoning whatsoever against Cascades.
I initially had a town-leaning read on Cwave, but his recent posts and the Sheth flip are giving me serious doubts.
Sheth dodged his three-out-of-eight scum potential longlist:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12842093
Also he's clearly not reading the same Sheth filter that I ploughed through yesterday:
On December 22 2011 21:33 Cwave wrote:Show nested quote +On December 22 2011 21:26 Refallen wrote:
Cwave, this post interested me, especially the part about Liquid`Sheth being probably town. What made you think he was town?
He posted calm and constructive, tried to contribute and had good posts with arguments about people in the spotlight. I didn't see scum in him.
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On December 24 2011 01:36 Jitsu wrote:
People keep bringing my name up, yet no one has anything definitive to say. Hopefully one of you guys will stop wasting time.
You were tunnelling Comprissent and now that he flipped green, there's not a whole lot else positive in your filter.
However I think your original case against Sheth looks pretty good now:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12817121
So unless there's a massive scumslip in the next few hours I think we should hit Cascades or Cwave today. Ideally Zeks has a vig shot left and can clear up the other one tonight.
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On December 24 2011 03:05 Jitsu wrote:
We miss-lynched on Day One as well, so you decide to come after me because of a miss-lynch on day 3? AND there are no other reasons? That's a bullshit case, and you know it. I was tunneling him all game - in my eyes, for good reason. I'd assume that since other people voted for him, they should be lynched as well according to your logic, am I right?
No, that's not what I meant. Comprissent was scummy as hell, but green, so your tunnelling makes sense regardless of whether you're town or scum. It makes you a null read, bar the anti-Sheth post. There are so many confirmed or near-confirmed townies that you're probably around #4 in most people's lynch-target lists. If you don't like that, I'd suggest posting some fresh analysis.
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Struggled a bit to pick between Cascades and Cwave.
Reasons to lynch Cwave: See all the cases in the last few pages.
Reasons to lynch Cascades: Posting is almost all defensive and/or veteran-hate. Also I still think this is a scumslip:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12795425
Cascades gets my lynch vote on the basis that Cwave posted a lot better before and there's a chance he might sort himself out. Cascades isn't going to change.
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So why did mafia have a godfather? Surely we have a terrible DT somewhere?
Thinking that Intelligence Officer will probably be able to hand out a DT check or two, which ought to win the game unless something bad is happening.
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Ok, I attempted to compile a list of claimed lynch votes in order of claim. Brackets mean that their vote wasn't sent or wasn't counted:
Deus: Assumed Cascades
Cwave: (Cascades)
Radfield: Cwave
Greymist: Cwave
Zeks: (Cwave)
TNTP: Cwave
jaj22: Cascades
risk.nuke: Cascades
Jitsu: Refallen
also:
Cascades: Probably voted Cwave for self-defence. He likes self-defence.
Refallen: (Never stated vote, but was leaning Cascades)
Zentor: (Felt sorry for scum and killed himself)
Due to Cwave getting the votes earlier (probably) and Jitsu sitting on the fence, Cwave was getting lynched regardless of shenanigans. The lost votes give Cwave a clear margin.
The comment about tied votes in the election makes no sense at all to me. Does anyone want to admit to either failing to switch their vote properly or voting for someone else? It sounds like it'd take more than scum votes, unless they totally botched the timing on another power...
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On December 25 2011 01:10 DEUS-ex-MAFIA wrote:
cascades is claiming scum in the thread over and over, you guys just ignore it. I mean wtf. This guy survived 2 lynches
Are you worried that he'll beat your record?
(re: annul in XLVIII)
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Ok, now I'm a bit worried.
The Jitsu shot doesn't make much sense to me. Jitsu's only real offence as far as I can tell is to make one horrible anti-town vote. At least if you'd hit Refallen, you'd have either hit scum, a liar, or confirmed a blue, and Radfield claims he preferred Cascades over Jitsu.
So, questions for Radfield:
1. How hard did you try to persuade Zeks not to shoot Jitsu?
2. Did Zeks have any more vig shots left when he died?
3. If you were happy to let him pick a shot that you disagreed with, why did you choose to PM Zeks when he was near-confirmed town?
Also, questions for TNTP:
1. How hard did Radfield try to persuade Zeks not to shoot Jitsu?
2. Was there anything in the Zeks/Radfield chat that made you so sure that Radfield is town? HoD: Don't make the same mistake that you made in Newbie Mini Mafia.
Regardless, I think we should hit Cascades today, as he's by far the scummiest player left and he's now looking like an good information lynch too.
I have a greener read on risk.nuke than Refallen, although I haven't checked his filter for a while, so I'll probably be voting for him in the election.
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I'd love to see a case. They seem to be going out of fashion around here.
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@Deus: Also you and Greymist aren't eligible for election, so I'm not sure which thread you're reading.
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On December 26 2011 09:14 Radfield wrote:
3. Zeks had alluded that he had some kind of protective action left. If that was the case I wanted to be able to co-ordinate with him.
That doesn't make much sense, as Zeks would almost certainly have used any protective action on you anyway. Also, once you discovered that Zeks had no protective action, the obvious response would be to get TNTP to "remind" the scum that he did. Note that this is another possible reason that you're still alive.
Maybe I'm reading too much into this. I thought the conventional wisdom was that the PM power was a really good way to tell if someone's scum. If that's not true, then PMing Zeks makes sense. Given the conclusion at the end of this post, the question no longer matters anyway.
Anyway, I was considering writing up a case on you based on your actions being consistently pro-scum and none of your posts being unreasonable for a smart scum player, but then on second read I spotted these posts:
On December 15 2011 03:00 Radfield wrote:
I agree completely on dropbear. He would be my number 1 target for a vig hit tonight.
On December 15 2011 03:14 Radfield wrote:Show nested quote +On December 15 2011 03:05 risk.nuke wrote:On December 15 2011 03:00 Radfield wrote:
I agree completely on dropbear. He would be my number 1 target for a vig hit tonight. That's insanely stupid. Player who have the potential to be of great use to town should never be vig'd. And rofl at vigging him this soon. What's to say he isnt jsut trying to stay under the mafia rader so he can live and be of great use to us later in game. Fucking idiocy to kill a person like that and even more useless to waste a vig on him. Why do you think Dropbear is town? Why do you think he is going to be an asset to town this game? So far his play has been very lacking. You're right that it probably doesn't make sense for vigilantes to shoot tonight though. If you only have one bullet, and are not likely to get shot, it makes sense to save it for Night 2 or 3. However, if you have multiple bullets or have to shoot, he is a good target. Mainly though I just wanted to see what syllo had to say. I expected him to say Dropbear, and I'm glad he did.
This is totally implausible scum play on risk/reward unless you've somehow figured that there are almost certainly no vigs in a unique game.
So I'm now >99% convinced that Radfield is town.
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Yay, a proper post. I'll just clarify your points against me for the moment:
On December 27 2011 04:22 DEUS-ex-MAFIA wrote:
"@Deus: I don't think I'll ever be happy with your explanation but your list looks solid so let's roll with it for the moment. Electing you as police chief rather than prankster is zero-risk anyway."
cool. He's electing me despite he accused me since he joined the game. thank you.
There was nothing you could do to harm town in the Police Chief position, hence "zero-risk". In fact, because it made you ineligible for later elections, it was if anything a risk-reduction. Even if I had a strong scum read on you, I'd still have voted for you.
For what it's worth, I had a null read at worst on you overall despite the ProfBA defense. I'm not inclined to give people a scum read just on one thing that doesn't make sense to me, as a lot of people do stuff that doesn't make sense to me. The rest of your play looked good.
On December 27 2011 04:22 DEUS-ex-MAFIA wrote:
"Nah, that'd make no sense given that most people have a town read on him."
huh change of mind. okay...
This is from this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12847258
It's just an explanation of why Police Chief was zero-risk, even if you were scum. Are you disputing that most players had a town read on you at the time? My own opinion of you was not important to the point.
Marserblood was indefensible, and would no doubt have been added to the long line of newbie town corpses if he'd stayed in the game.
Looking into your other stuff now. I need to re-read all these filters anyway.
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The post I was going to write now feels like pissing into a shitstorm, so I'll stick to the essentials.
On elections:
I don't think it matters much who gets the second election place as if they don't share the plans openly, they're just going to get lynched tomorrow. What might get ugly is if mafia can use that candidate-withdrawal power a third time, but that stuff happens after my bedtime anyway.
@TNTP: Remember to make your extra vote.
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On December 28 2011 13:15 GreYMisT wrote:So reread jaj with cascades as scum in mind, and came across this post. Show nested quote +On December 20 2011 23:20 jaj22 wrote:Comprissent gets a spoiler for being long: + Show Spoiler +Cwave: Filter is a bit lightweight, but he's happy to give reads and stick with them. Town read for now. nyczbrandon: On December 16 2011 11:48 nyczbrandon wrote:
Doing bare minimum makes me seem like scum? Yes, yes it does. Taking four days to eventually post the first part of an analysis you promised is... well, I'm not even sure how you got away with it. Post more. evantrees: Posts a lot about elections, next to nothing about scum. How did we get to day 3 with people still doing this? Getting a read out of this filter is hopeless. cascades: Not many posts, but relatively juicy ones. This post interested me: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12795425Just reads as really angry to me. Sure, if you have a strong distaste for veterans playing lazy/arrogant (which would be consistent with the rest of his filter), you'd be facepalming pretty hard at the ProfBA fold, but a mafia lynch is a mafia lynch. Maybe I just can't comprehend the true depths of veteran-hate. Her he is posting his scumreads. however if you look at the cascades topic, all it is is just a personality analysis, there is nothing about him being scum listed here. All it says is he is playing angry and doesnt like the vets. he does not say whether or not he thinks cascades is scum or town or what.
No, that's not all that it's saying. It's highlighting a possible scumtell despite Cascades' apparent personality. I wasn't very confident in it so I was really hoping that other people would give their opinion after I highlighted it. I suppose I should have been more aggressive with my wording.
The second point I would like to make is the fact that he was here when my wagon was building, however he mentioned nothing about it. no attacks onto me, no defense of me.
Because I was still busy on the other filters. By the time I got to the Greymist question, you'd already roleclaimed. I imagine I'd have prioritised your filter if it'd been anywhere near the end of the day, but as it was I was just processing Deus's questions in order.
Anyway, I don't think there's much information in the military campaigns that could be of use to scum nightkills, so I'll paraphrase them here:
Campaign #1: Cause a double lynch in the next cycle.
Campaign #2: Reveal identities of all third party players.
#1 is the obvious choice given the number of players remaining if we don't think there are really any third parties (we get three lynches rather than two before the end of the game).
#2 is worrying me because both TNTP and Radfield are plausible third parties.
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I've never read any games with third parties so I honestly have no idea how they're supposed to work. Up until now I never considered the possibility. I assume what you're saying is that if there are any third parties, then they're not dangerous?
If that's true, I'll just go with option #1.
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Oh hey, Erandorr actually posted a bit in MLP. Also tntked did have an extra vote power 
Mailed in option #1 anyway. The PM says I'm supposed to submit it as soon as possible, so this was already a stretch.
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On December 29 2011 12:56 GreYMisT wrote:
The double lynch plan was the one that jaj sent you. when he explained them to us why in the name of god did he not think that fully revealing its nature would be beneficial?
Because it's a complete irrelevance when there's only one scum remaining. I just couldn't be bothered to paraphrase it
On December 29 2011 13:39 GreYMisT wrote:
Oh and another reason i think that jaj22 might be scum: someone pointed out that its odd that rad was shot when risk implied that he was picking a protect power. notice the fact that jaj has not posted since after he sent in his plan. Its plausable that he sent in the kill on rad, and wasnt around for when risk announced his bluff.
This one, however, is absolutely true. I was aiming to concede today anyway, as I lost the will to post cases somewhere in the middle of day 5. Kinda wanted to see the military plans first in case they were something like "kill all odd-numbered players".
I am the mafia Black Mailer! Twice per game, I may nullify all election votes for target player. My action cannot be submitted within 2 hours of the end of the election cycle.
Big thumbs up to my scumbuddies Cascades and Sheth for sticking out a game despite a really bad situation. Big thumbs down to the veterans for getting killed for bad reasons.
ScumQT: http://www.quicktopic.com/47/H/HtbewFxEK9ba
And finally a message for anyone reading this thread who's thinking about playing TL Mafia:
Ok, so you've read a few games, you think you can pick out scum and you're capable of writing a decent forum post. On the other hand, you can't play SC2 multiplayer because it's too stressful and you often lay awake at night worrying about forum posts. If this sounds like you, DO NOT PLAY TL MAFIA. It will kill you.
gg guys.
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