EPTTL Mafia XLVIII
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TruthBringer
United States578 Posts
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TruthBringer
United States578 Posts
I don't think we should lynch anyone on day 1, personally. I know mafia get kills at night, but blues also have powerful abilities at night. People are saying 6/25 is high, but it is probably offset by the town having powerful blues or quite a few blues. Also, I've been out of the TL mafia loop for awhile, so if it comes to day 1 lynching, I'll be completely worthless as I can't read any of you at all. | ||
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TruthBringer
United States578 Posts
We don't have to do anything on the first day. Sometimes doing nothing is better than doing something. I admit that we have more data if we hang someone, because we can see that person's alignment and who voted for him and who voted elsewhere. But more data doesn't mean we are in a better position. If we hang a powerful blue, and the mafia isn't overrepresented in the vote to lynch him, that does us no good. You seem to think that I can pick out scum just based on bad ideas, but some people are just not good players or come up with bad plans, how am I to know the difference? Like I said, I don't have the experience right now to make the distinction. Also, there can be differences of opinion. You and I might both be good guys and honestly have different opinions on whether it is a good idea or bad idea to hang on the first day. | ||
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The way I see it is this . . . he leaves less evidence behind if he doesn't vote for me in the actual voting thread. The voting thread will end up being fairly short, easy to read through. Whereas this thread is already becoming a bear. He was hoping to start a tidal wave against me and it didn't work out, and so he never actually voted for me in the voting thread. He doesn't want to come off as a frequent vote changer, etc. I think it is pretty scummy that he would so quickly vote for me in this thread, but not follow-up on it in the voting thread even after I reminded him to. | ||
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TruthBringer
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On December 05 2011 17:23 prplhz wrote: @TruthBringer You said that "Sometimes it's better doing nothing than something." what makes you think that it is better to do nothing than it is to do something in the situation we are in right now? Do you think, right now, that no-lynch is a better option than lynching somebody? If you had to lynch somebody right now who would it be and why? What kind of information do you think we'd have day2 that we wouldn't have day1 if we didn't lynch? Do you think the only thing to gain from a lynch is a flip and a vote list? Why don't you think you can read any of us? Is it because you don't know how we usually play or is it because you haven't played mafia for a while and you don't feel confident about your abilities right now? You also never answered my question; when you played before, did town often rely on power roles instead of analysis? I think in this situation it is better to hang someone on day 1 than to not do so. The situation has changed since I originally posted that. A lot more has been said, this has been a very active day 1. Right now, I would lynch Palmar. His posts have almost entirely been fluff. Very little strategic analysis. Very little player analysis. Very troll-like. He proposed RNG for first day hanging. He seems to be trying to direct rather than participate. I know there is the argument that as a good guy he can stay alive longer if the mafia think his head is near the chopping block, but to me he seems to be trying to seem town without posting anything worthwhile at all. I don't think I can read many of the players here because I don't know how sophisticated each person's play is. For instance, although I suspect Palmar right now, I even have an explanation for how he can be doing what he is doing as a townie. Is Palmar the type of player who would act mafia in order to keep mafia from killing him? I don't know. Does prplhz pay close attention to detail? Why did it take me calling him out TWICE before he voted for me in the voting thread? Was he "blue-claiming" so the town wouldn't hang him? I am under the impression that the town has abilities at night allowing them to check for bad guys and that there are clues given in the death sequences. (When incognito describes the kills, he leaves hints behind pointing at particular mafia members.) I can read suspicious behaviour just fine, I just don't know the players well enough to read them. Behaviour may be suspicious, but is it suspicious for Palmar/prplhz, etc.? When I played before, town relied heavily on analysis of the death-script to determine who the mafia were, so the longer the game lasted and the more death-scripts there were, the better the town's chances were. The blue roles were also important, especially the one that allowed vote-list checking. That really allowed the town analysts to hone in on who to check the death-script clues against. | ||
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##unvote Palmar ##vote refallen | ||
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Some guardian angels saved him yesterday when he was receiving lots of votes ("let's switch to zero suspicion hier!") Bring it on, try and save him again without giving yourselves away. ##vote Palmar | ||
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United States578 Posts
On December 07 2011 19:23 Palmar wrote: Such a safe vote, I wonder if you're just ignorant, or if you're being maliciously ignorant. You will be called out on this so you better be damn sure you know what you're doing. If you're town, you haven't read the game well enough, and you're actively sabotaging your team. If you're scum I don't really care. I wonder how you were expecting me to play day 2? I think I've brought up very valid points regarding annul's claim and syllo's death. But apparently to you that's being useless. Did you even read what I posted before throwing your vote and opinion out like that? That's what the game is all about, being suspicious. Everybody was asking themselves the same things. Did annul really get shot or is he trying to trick people into thinking he is a good guy? Your analysis just sidetracks the issue. We don't know the mafia KP. We don't know if syllogism shot annul. Who cares? Even if syllo shot annul, that doesn't mean annul is good or bad. Syllo was a vigi, he didn't know the role of anybody he shot. Your posts are consistently doing the same thing, exploring irrelevant avenues to deliberately shift the focus from scumhunting. Then there are the frequent, "you suck" style posts. Yes, Palmar, I am the one actively sabotaging the town, not YOU. | ||
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On December 07 2011 19:25 Refallen wrote: I completely disagree actually, I've had my misgivings about Palmar but I believe he's been showing himself to be quite pro-town the more he posts. Why do you say that he started day 2 off being worthless Truth? What are your thoughts on his posts on day 2 so far? Also, I've noticed you've been bandwagoning quite a lot. For example, you bandwagoned with kingjames to vote me on day 1 and now you're doing the same on day 2. You look more the scum than Palmar atm Yes, right now I believe annul, maybe kingjames should be the guys we're talking about today too. They need to defend themselves in the thread. Refallen, calling out the only two people who voted for you yesterday is not subtle. When I voted for you, I expressed that my true vote was for Palmar, but that there was more dirt on you than hier, and that Palmar's guardian angels had already convinced the town not to hang him yesterday. I think his posts today are less trolly than they were yesterday, but just as unhelpful. | ||
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On December 07 2011 19:39 Palmar wrote: You see, every experienced player stayed the hell away from my wagon because it's pretty obvious I was goofing around early day one. Yet you tunneled in on me very, very early in the game, never giving it as much as a second thought. I am looking forward to you eating your own shit though, although I think it's quite vulgar, please don't take any pictures. Yes, I troll you. I dislike your style of scumhunting because you always look at what happens, instead of thinking about what it means. For example, syllogism who is arguably the best town player on TL, correctly deduced that while I was being dumb and useless, there was nothing in it that made me mafia. Sure, it made me useless, but useless doesn't mean mafia. You on the other hand automatically assume that since I am unhelpful, I must be mafia, which is faulty logic, and probably the reason you have such a hard time hunting scum. And that's why I troll you, and why I'm sometimes a dick to you. This is written in case you happen to be town, in hopes you actually give your stance a second thought, because you're not helping at the moment. I cannot possibly deduce your alignment, because I think you're smart enough to know that tunneling me basically frees you from further scrutiny if you are scum, because your terrible meta assumes you tunnel me, no matter of my alignment. In addition, re-read the last paragraph in your post. Notice how you're completely disregarding a very important part of the game because you're so tunneled in on me. Of the four big names this game (rad, sand, me, syllo) Syllogism looked by far the most pro-town. I was trolling, sandroba was lurking and radfield was being not so useful. Why on earth would any medic who's not already affiliated with annul, pick annul over syllogism as n1 target? Syllo probably dies more often than Radfield and I on night 1. All that useless posts do is help the mafia. They make the thread longer/more of a pain to read and allow significant posts to go unnoticed. I definitely would estimate you as being the leader in useless posts. I really doubt that me "tunneling" you is going to free me from scrutiny, especially as I voted for you so quickly after VE did. People will call it bandwagoning. Nonetheless, I am playing the way I should and calling out the person I have the highest scum-read on. Regarding the death of syllo . . . I haven't played with syllo before ever. The death of syllo is meaningless to me. Similarly, whereas quite a few people think that in some twisted way, you might still be a good guy based on past games with you, all I have to judge you on is this game and in it you seem dirty to me. | ||
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On December 07 2011 19:45 Palmar wrote: The important issue is the fact that it make zero sense to protect annul in this situation. I full well believe annul got shot during the night, there is no reason for him to claim it if he didn't get hit. Looking at how I'd assume this game is balanced, I simply cannot believe mafia has 3kp on top of their already unusually high numbers. Maybe you should state your conclusions in order to be a little bit more helpful rather than sidetracking the issue. So . . . "the important issue is the fact that it make zero sense to protect annul in this situation," therefore . . . redff is mafia (for example). What is the point of going down this path if going down the path does us no good? Is your point that some medic did a bad job? Good point. Everybody let's agree that one of the medics did a bad job last night. | ||
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On December 07 2011 20:02 Palmar wrote: No, my point is that barring further evidence, I have a reason to believe annul was protected by a scumdoc. The reason I'm being ambiguous is that apparently when I'm straight to the point people panic and shoot townies. I don't think a medic did a bad job. I don't think any town medic who actually read the interchange between syllogism and annul during the night would even consider protecting annul. My point is that I think annul is mafia. This is by far my favorite post of yours. I actually found it helpful, in all sincerity. I forgot that there could be such a thing as a scumdoc. My preliminary read on annul wasn't very scummy though, however you have definitely given me something to look into. | ||
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United States578 Posts
I am unvoting Palmar not because his play seems very townie to me, but because as people have pointed out, his role in the hands of the mafia would further unbalance the game. (Access to 7/26 votes at start.) Also, I really feel that his anonymous vote ability would have done a lot more harm to the town if he had kept it anonymous. People would have spent time reading into it, trying to figure out who it was, etc. One of the nice things about believing Palmar to be mafia was that there was a cascade effect to find the other mafia, certain people having helped him when he was in trouble. I still do feel like lynching him and seeing his flip would provide some clarity about other people's alignments. I like the case against Erandorr, but what I don't like about lynching Erandorr is that I don't feel like lynching him provides us with much more information. He hasn't really been a hot topic, like Palmar has so we just won't get as much information from lynching him as we would from Palmar. Nonetheless, Palmar's Floridian role and his willingness to remove the anonymity make me think he is town and therefore, I will ##vote Erandorr | ||
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On a different matter: The death of supersoft seemed odd. He seemed ambiguous as to whether he was town or mafia. Of course, mafia want to kill people who are obviously townies, so that when it comes to voting, everyone is a suspect. He also isn't a power player as far as I know. I know he didn't make that 6-player list of Radfield, Palmar, redFF, syllogism, Jackal58, and Sandroba. So why was he killed? I can think of somebody who had a motive to kill him: Lanaia. Supersoft made a sexist comment about girls always contradicting themselves. I think that comment was inappropriate but Lanaia appeared to take it in stride. But maybe she got the last laugh and killed supersoft for it. It is enough to put Lanaia on my radar anyways. | ||
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On December 09 2011 02:27 Jackal58 wrote: Add this guy to my summyish list Radfield. The part that you bolded is me indicating that I would prefer to hang someone today rather than not hang. How is that scummy? | ||
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As a townie, seeing how people flip when they die reveals information about those who chose to hang them and who didn't and about who they voted for. | ||
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On December 09 2011 03:27 Jackal58 wrote: Only scum don't care if they are hammering a townie. Only Mafia know if they are hammering a townie. Look jackal58, you are making yourself look more suspicious to me with this. You are arguing a position that has no basis. You've put no thought into it whatsoever. You seem to just be trying to get by. | ||
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On December 09 2011 04:29 Lanaia wrote: I don't like this stuff where you're saying you'll switch to whoever has the highest vote... Are you saying you don't care who gets lynched? Are you kidding me? That is a terrible reason to think I'm scum. How the hell is that a motive to kill someone? I have a question as reading Zephhy's post has made me reconsider a bit... information is better... If we mislynch today, are we still safe from autolosing? Gee, Lanaia, I am glad I was able to get you out from lurking, but maybe you should have read a little more of the thread. Your question has already been dealt with by me and some others. I get the feeling that you are just going through the pages doing [Ctrl + F "Lanaia"] Very clear sign of mafia. | ||
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On December 08 2011 06:44 Toadesstern wrote: I think we might have someone with Erandorr. Someone already pointed out his style is very mich the same as the last game. He's not contributing at all, if someone calls him out he gets in here, does one bigger post and keeps lurkering / onlines until the next guy calls him out. The very same thing happened last game. Look at his filter last game: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=285690&user=117613 and start on page 2 (his mayor-campaign-post), everything before that was before the game started. Called out by ss: klick me Erandorr steps in the thread, does one normal post, proceeds to lurk. I made a case on him as well: Klick me Same as above as frankly, both happened abot the same time, so yeah erandorr get in the thread and starts doing some real posts. That's page 63. From page 64 again he's back to one-liners only. Massive vote-rigging:: Klick me! Erandorr joins the discussion to get one bigger post to get some town-cred and proceeds to lurk / do one-liners. I mean there where people claiming mafia, no need to not bus them for town-cred. That's how he played mafia last game. Now let's look at what erandorr is doing this game, shall we? That's his filter: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=291212&user=117613 He did some posts on day1 tha are no one-lines, those howeve are just fluff without content, telling rad to take a stand without actually doing something on his own. EVERYTHING ELSE is a one-liner. Next thing that's going to happen: Erandorr will come here, make a big post to look town again, telling you that something is wrong and some way more obvious target should be lynched first and will proceed lurking / doing one-liners afterwards. We can't let that happen again. He completly ignored those people who called him out last game, did one post that made him look okayish and went lurking again. @annul as to why Erandorr is mafia. Toad's case against him is what got me started thinking Erandorr is mafia. Erandorr continues to behave the same way. Erandorr has done one piece of scum-hunting, a very weak case against Radfield. His case against Radfield seems to be less of an accusation of scumminess and more of a critique of his gameplay. His case against Radfield is made to look like a scumhunt, so he seems like a participating townie, but if you read the whole case, it is just a bunch of criticisms of Radfield, and draws an unwarranted conclusion that Radfield is scummy. Some quotable lines . . . "After rereading it doesn't sound as definite as I thought it would" (his case against Radfield) "So, Radfield : It is very easy to look pro town when you are not actually talking about players. Radfield this far has done a great job involving people into this game and trying to keep the thread active. That in itself is actually pretty protown and should be considered a point in Radfields favor. But it also makes it incredibly easy to skirt by without actually *doing anything*" (look who's talking, the only person he has gone after so far is Radfield and it is a fabricated case) He goes on to explain how several of the things that Radfield has said don't make sense. He doesn't say they are scummy, just that they don't make sense. Contradicting his earlier point about Radfield not doing anything, he goes on to say, "I actually did the work and went through Radfields older games and he actually is uncertain about alignment day1 pretty often. " and the stunning conclusion, "He actually started pushing Lanaia ... for two minutes. Honestly I am not quite sure what to make of that case. What I can say though is that what Radfield has done this game has not been impressive at all and is definitly scummy in my eyes." That has to be the wishy-washiest scum-hunt and which means it's not really a scumhunt but just an effort to appear town. Honestly, his filter produces essentially no positive content and his faux case against Radfield is just a distraction and an attempt to appear town. | ||
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On December 10 2011 13:27 Zephirdd wrote: Well, it seems nobody else is online/caring atm. So, analyzing it. The post says he was... strangled, poisoned, shot four times, beaten and THEN drowned. There is no kill like overkill heh There was only one kill as well in contrast to the two from night 1. Unless someone claims to have been protected, I guess it's safe to assume that Rad was stacked; which means mafia really wanted him dead. Look for cases he was pushing. If mafia wanted to kill someone with cred, they'd target Toads. If they stacked Radfield, they were scared of him, because he was making sense. Of course, all of this is true only if Rad was stacked; if a medic tried to protect him, it's a good idea to claim that IMO(unless, ofc, you want to remain anonymous for now). Bad news(for me) is that all my gut feelings were completely wrong and I can't trust myself anymore. Good news is that I'll be able to confirm Palmar's alignment. Palmar is town I'll claim it. I am a Parity Cop, which means I can chose a person per night, and the result of my investigation will be "Same" or "Different", according to the investigation from the last night. Night 1, I get 'No Result'. Night 1 I chose Palmar to investigate, as he would be my comparative to night 2. He is my strongest town read atm, so I assume it wwas a good idea. Night 2 I chose Radfield because I thought he was mafia, so a 'Different' would basically tell me he is mafia. Obviously, it is not the case; however, the investigation will provide me "Same" or "Different", which means I'll know the exact alignment of Palmar as we know that Refallen is green. My investigation provided me "Same", therefore, Palmar is 100% town. I'd say that should clear any issues of "Palmar is scum" that any player may have yet. Palmar is our ally, and we can at least trust that he is playing for us. If you have any doubts about this, please check my first post on the game, precisely the last line. I told you I'd find out who is enemy of who - alignments of players in relation of others. Also, since Palmar is town, is it safe to assume that annul is scum? I am inclined to believe zeph's role claim. Palmar was a person of interest day 1, so it makes sense he was checked on night 1. Radfield was definitely conceivably the most town on day 2, so I follow zeph's logic using him as the baseline townie. However, just because Palmar is town that doesn't mean annul is mafia. I think they are both town. I am most suspicious of sandroba and jackal58, who haven't lived up to their billing as good players. My other 4 mafia would be Refallen (KJ's case), Erandorr (Toad's case), redFF (his behavior regarding Palmar on day 1, starting bandwagon then ditching it when it seemed Palmar would hang in order to deny culpability), and Lanaia (I feel like she for awhile was just Ctrl F "Lanaia"ing, playing purely defensively, not trying to scumhunt). | ||
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On December 10 2011 20:04 Refallen wrote: Just got home, truth, why do you still think I'm mafia? Disregard me including you. I think we should focus our efforts on someone other than you for today. | ||
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Refallen claimed to have healed Palmar, Palmar claimed to be healed. Zeph insists Palmar is town. Honestly, probably all 3 of them are town. | ||
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I think annul and drazerk are both town. I think redFF is mafia. Of the people that I think are mafia, I think the only one that could actually carry enough votes to be lynched is redFF. | ||
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It wouldn't have been a safe play for a mafia to claim to be a really powerful role (which he did) because then the mafia would gun him down really quickly and it would look suspicious if they didn't. He was hoping the trap would already be sprung, the mafia would attack him the veteran and he could explain it all. He was trying to be a hero, but it didn't work out. Now, annul, v7 has all the same abilities as annul. That doesn't prove that annul is town, but I think other things are compelling. 1. The balance argument. 6 mafia vs 19 town. I doubt mafia would be given a role with a day vig power. 2. Not killing Palmar. annul could have killed Palmar earlier because Palmar did seem suspicious early in the game. He could have easily rationalized it, but he didn't. Palmar was already tunnelling annul early on day 2. At that point, Palmar wasn't very highly regarded as town. 3. Giving his shot to Toadesstern. He didn't know who Toad was going to have him shoot. I'm sure he didn't expect Toad to shoot prplhz. He couldn't have just backed out if Toad told him to kill someone who really was mafia. If he really were mafia, he could have easily shot redFF or someone else who had been very suspicious all game. Hyshes: Hyshes has made no effort towards being pro-town. He has the MO of the average mafia player this game (seemingly.) The mafia have been staying below the radar and the townies have been the ones drawing attention to themselves. Honestly, as a town, we've made it really easy for the mafia. redFF did several shady things that brought attention to himself. So have Palmar, v7, annul, and drazerk. I'll admit that I don't know that annul, drazerk, and v7 are town, but it seems that the mafia have been able to just lay low this game and watch the town be self-destructive by some players drawing all the attention to themselves and others just focusing on them. The mafia haven't had any need to do anything bold like claim RB immune medic or offer a shot to the most townie considered person. They've been able to lie low and I think that's how we'll find them, the quiet, unhelpful, uninvolved players, like hyshes. ##vote hyshes | ||
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On December 14 2011 08:23 Drazerk wrote: I'm a VT TruthBringer... Sorry, what is a VT? | ||
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I understand why you would say "option [x]", so that the mafia wouldn't know what ability you were talking about, but listing the wrong number? Get real. Nobody would actually do that. The cover, "I thought you would be smart enough to realize I meant the first option I could use on someone," is not plausible at all. What proves to me that v7 is the townie and you are the liar is the fact that you acknowledged his order of the abilities as being correct and you tried to explain away how the 3rd ability was actually option 1. It just doesn't make any sense that someone who could very easily and concisely say option 3, would instead say option 1. Only adding confusion with no gain. Sorry hyshes case, you may still come in handy later, but annul's option 1 is just too much for me to tolerate. ##unvote hyshes ##vote annul | ||
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At first his story is, "I thought it would be obvious that I meant medic," aka option 3. Later, "the order of our abilities is different." | ||
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##unvote annul ##vote sandroba | ||
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